We've looked into licenses - 50-75K plus a piece of each game is pretty normal.

The Farsight stuff seems about right - remember they don't Kickstart original theme B/W games, just the ones that were licensed at the time and have since expired. By pre-selling enough to cover the license cost (ie, the costs above and beyond a normal pinball port) they ensure success.

Addam's Family was always going to be expensive - Raul Julia is dead and the movie itself had a nebulous production / rights issues (started as Orion, ended as Paramount, based off earlier license, etc)

There is talk of a Predator "reboot" (because it's an 80's movie people have heard of) and Shane Black (the guy with glasses who made bad jokes) is now a Big Deal Again after directing Iron Man 3.

If someone had made a Big Lebowski pinball after it bombed it theaters they could have gotten the rights for a song. But now it's a cult hit = expensive. Same thing will probably happen with Army of Darkness, should someone go after it. There's an Evil Dead show coming with Bruce Campbell, which will make the old movie more desirable now.

Likewise, best time to make a Firefly pinball would have been right after Fox cancelled. But now Joss Whedon is An Even Bigger Deal so those rights will go up as well.

The moral of this story? If you're a middling success in Hollywood, direct ANY Marvel film and instantly became AAA list.

Farsight did Kickstart an Addams Family port and it was their most expensive by a long shot - just over 90k. It succeeded though.

Frolic, I think Chuck tried for 3 but dialed it back for QC.

I feel the DD Beach Babes should be the ones on dinosaurs. Just makes for better imagery.

"Dino Ridin' DD Beach Babes VS The Nazi Zombie Army of Doom"

DRDDBBVTNZAD for short.

This whole idea sounds good on paper until the part where a buyer has to convince his wife to get a game featuring giant boobs AND Nazi symbolism

What fiend would tilt a photo of Scarlett Johanson, the only actress under 30 who actually eats sandwiches?

I don't know what their problems are, but I can tell you with utmost certainty what caused them:

This game was priced too cheap.

Of course building a prototype doesn't cost 1 million. Maybe 5k, and another 20-30k getting it ready for manufacturer.

But that's just screws, metal and wood - the real cost of any project is labor. Chuck and I did that pro-bono for the first few years, and now we get paid on the back end. Chuck puts a lot of his profit back into the business, not Aruba trips or pizza parties.

PAY ATTENTION TO THIS PART: We only got paid by shipping a game - not for coming up with the idea for one - probably why we made damn sure it went out the door.

Yes Predator is simpler than AMH. But it has other expenses we don't, like PROC, blacklights, special inks, a license (one would hope) molded skulls, molded ramps (AMH has zero vacuum forming).

Kevin is right though - making pinball is HARD. Like, really f'ing don't try it you're nuts hard.

For 3% of a million bucks sure they would!

I know Chuck uses them it's the best rate a small business can get on CC purchases.

I know. I'll drive over to Michigan and help Kevin re-theme it into ROCKETEER!

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I always thought she contracted the deadly "I won an Oscar so I'd better get super-skinny now" disease.

Hopefully Jennifer Lawrence is immune.

We discussed Labyrinth a lot at work as it was our producer's favorite movie and it contained a Connelly.

Came to the conclusion that since she's older than me in real life, and I was only 8 when that movie came out, it's "OK" to think she was cute in it

Much better than he being wooed by a then 38 year old David Bowie.

The Oscar Skinny Curse is coming for Scarlett too!

She's a good actress eventually she will get an Oscar... Then... Prepare for the Worst!

Re-theme complete.

Whatever is going on is pretty recent, this one is from 2009. (plus a shot reminding you of how stupidly hot she was in Rocketeer)

That's the scary part - 10 lbs have been added and she still looks like that!

As requested, Kate Beckinsale.

I have gone with the 19 year old version of her as seen in "Much Ado About Nothing"

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Ya'll are forgetting about JESSICA BIEL!

You know, the girl Juston Timberlake gets to bang even after ruining Janet Jackson's career (tell me again how that was HER fault?)

Very well. I shall tangentially attach a photo of Alyssa Milano, who was in an 80's movie with Arnold.

I would agree with Aurich, the only actress under 30 who appears to have ever even SEEN a sandwich is Jennifer Lawrence.

AND... she's the most popular young actress. Coincidence? You decide! (Moon landing faked?)

PS: In no universe is Biel, or her arms, not sexy.

My assumption is the license to make the game "timed out". Considering most licenses are 3 years, the Predator announcement in 2011, and "the scrubbing" in 2014, this lines up.

Over these last few weeks/months the going theory is that they're either re-negotiating the license, or doing a re-theme. A re-theme = fail so let's not consider that. Nobody, not even us "rival" boutiques, want anyone to fail.

In the best scenario - a successful re-negotiation - the question to ask yourself is if you'd be OK with a "stripped down" Predator?

You don't just license the movie and get everything in it. (Maybe them assuming they did is where the trouble started in the first place?) "Just the movie" would get you the script, characters, Predator imagery, maybe sound FX. Actor voices, likenesses, the musical score and "Long Tall Sally" would all be separate negotiations, costs and contracts.

So the question to ask is: If they retain the license and all you get is the Predator sounds, imagery and maybe the musical score (no Arnold or original voices) would that be enough to keep you in? What is the minimum amount of Predator IP you'd be happy with? Just the title and the monster?

DISCLAIMER: I have no insight as to what's actually going on. These are my own theories and questions based off info available on the web.

Maybe they could do silhouettes against a simple backdrop? Get the "team" in there but no defining characteristics.

I like the art style on the existing Predator but the drawing of Arnold, especially his body (kind of important with Arnold!) is fairly poor.

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"YOU KNOW NOTHING, PINSIDE!!!"

Seriously, we have no idea what is going on.

I can confirm that Spooky Pinball is not building these. Chuck did some PF's months ago, hasn't heard boo since.

That's the course of action most likely to result in a game. If they retain 100 sales (minimum to make it worth any manufacturer's while) that's 125k extra to work with. 75k should cover licensing, leaving 500 extra per game for 3rd party assemble.

They still wouldn't make money, but could at least get out from under things.

Even assuming an amicable resolution with Fox the numbers just won't work.

My educated guesses include:
$750 per game 3rd party assembly fee (minimum, plus re-engineering costs)
$200 per game license (if Fox is being incredibly generous, which they won't be)

$4750 - $950 = Not enough to build a game.

To even have a chance every owner would have to:

1) Stay in
2) Pay at least $1000 more
3) Accept major art changes and very little content from film
4) Accept 8-10 month delay

I noticed that too and have formed a theory.

Kevin's website was filled with YouTube videos. In December 2013 YouTube started Content ID, which flags copyrighted material, typically via audio.

Videos of the game at shows wouldn't have flagged anything, but the "Mission Complete" and "Mode Walkthrough" videos had clear Predator musical score playing, which would have triggered a flag.

Getting flagged isn't a huge deal, worst case you can't monetize the video and the audio may get muted. But for a guy trying to fly under the radar, seeing a COPYRIGHT CLAIM 20TH CENTURY FOX in your YouTube control panel might have spooked him into whitewashing.

When exactly did the whitewashing occur?

Even after plenty of evidence that he clearly didn't know WTF he was doing, Kevin still was given well beyond the benefit of the doubt on these forums.

The emails would have been scoffed at, like all rational concern has been the last few years.

It took them, Aaron's accounts and finally Martin's articles for people to take the issues seriously.

I've said this before but even without licensing issues this game would have trickled out at best, and run out of money long before all owners got their games.

The emails only appeared 3 weeks ago. Their contents are mirrored here https://predatorpinball.wordpress.com/

I didn't take it too seriously it was written very conspiracy nut-like manner.

Given his track record, he's probably furiously Googling and catching up on Law & Order episodes in order to represent himself.

The trick is, you have to spend $50k+ to even get their attention.

They're billion dollar studios. To put it in perspective, do you bother to pick up a penny on the sidewalk? No, but you'd bother for a dollar bill.

So spending that much "no matter what" you're looking at $200 a game for Predator sized runs. Quadruple that and you're closer to the $50/game rumored Stern rate.

I would bet a steak dinner he hasn't even hired a lawyer yet.

Remember this is the same rocket scientist who (apparently) thought Fair Use and Non-Profit would allow him to make a Predator game.

"We have the legal right to make these games"

http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/predator/34899/predator-dark-ages-trailer-for-fan-made-film

The game sucked.

It barely worked at shows.

They had no path to manufacturing.

They would have run out of money if they tried.

All AG did was fire a bullet into the skull of an already dying dog.

Project has been suffering since 2013, when they started bleeding team members, it barely worked at Expo even with a proven system (PROC) and their website went dark.

And yes, I'm bitter. I'd rather have your money in my pocket in exchange for a game than Kevin doing god knows what with whatever's left.

AMH not *technically* sold out yet.

Chuck held a few spots so they could be sold in person at MGC. Stop by the booth for more info.

Plus final game #150 being auction at expo for charity (delivery date: Feb-March 2016)

I assure you we have the license for the theme I personally created.

Documentation... it's a funny thing. I hate legal stuff. While it's very exciting to make a pinball machine, it's always rewarding when one is completed. You can be assured that we are doing everything we can to make sure your game has no surprises coming out of the box!

More information is coming swiftly, once I figure out the WiFi password in this Mexican hotel...

I'm disappointed to see so much money pulled out of the market and be turned into nothing. That's compounded by my opinion of the game and the false pretense about the license.

Spooky was going to do their playfields. Chuck was the one in fact who figured out how to get the UV ink to at least sort of work. Automotive clear coat is meant to block UV light, he had to find a brand that didn't.

For the record, I also think solar roadways are a tricking joke and a giant scam as well.

Occam's Razor GO!!!

1) He still has no lawyer (follow-up article is a confession of guilt!)
2) He's sitting on the money but a good chunk of it IS gone forever.
3) Fox isn't going to pursue this any further since he dropped the project.
4) He still believes, deep down, that "this ain't ovah" (hence no partial refunds even)

Don't make the assumption that Kevin will use logic or reason to resolve this, when clearly his mind doesn't work that way.

Well, Kevin was right about one thing.

If he tried to build 250 games at $4750, it would surely be at no profit.

And that's the middle-truth, Lyin'Man!

Yup, it's just my assumption.

Fox got their Cease & Desist, they're not going to spend hundreds of thousands in legal fees just to "make an example of Kevin" and win a lien on a 30k house. Before anyone brings up the RIAA - Napster comparison, they sued thousands to scare millions, big difference.

I know you're all hoping for some kind of comeuppance for Kevin, I just don't think it will come from Fox.

Probably because the Michigan buyers are still hoping to get a machine "under the table" if what labnip says is true.

Like JPOP, Kevin made more money NOT making a game than any of the other boutiques did.

I'm a sucker!

"Do you solemnly swear to tell the middle truth, the whole middle truth, and nothing but the middle truth so help you God?"

"Swearing is hard"

I like the IRS idea. It worked for Al Capone.

At $4750, not everyone would have gotten their pin. You'd end up in a situation like this: http://mashable.com/2016/04/16/coolest-cooler-money/#an.hAPCU38qA

At least with JPOP there's some transparency. We can see all the prototypes, fancy hinges, rent, patent applications and generous salary and say "yeah, that's where all the money went". John wasted it PROPERLY (sad as that is to say).

Kevin got maybe 10 games worth of parts, tops. (which you know he'll build and sell under the table)

What people want to know is: What did he spend the rest on?

BTW him living in Pinconning is a coincidence, not irony (irony would be a town called "Honesty, MI")

So he stole half a million, claims zero income, and runs a cash business? F**K this guy.

I bet he's got his dumb redneck family on government assistance too. If Keith can't get him, maybe the IRS can.

Well yeah, think about it from the "Robin Hood" perspective.

A poor dumb redneck in the woods managed to get a small fortune from a bunch of (mostly) well off "rich folks" and now he can feed his family! Awwwww.....

Course problem these days is we ALREADY pay for his "put a rubber on already" redneck spawn through taxes (11k income w/ 5 kids = they're on every program you can think of) and the money he stole is icing on his cake of shit.

As someone whose family was on welfare for a short time after my dad died (back before moms kept full time jobs) I say F**K this assistance-stealing POS (he's also defrauding needy families) and I hope he gets what's coming to him.

Kevin has a job. He routes games.

It's just not a job to the IRS. Cash business you know!

Actually, tipping off a reporter and having him follow the breadcrumbs was the best way to go.

If people would have gone on Pinside early 2014 yelling "Kevin's a fraud!" they would have run up against "The SkitB Defense Force".

A reporter takes the time to check everything out and when they post, it has validity because their reputation is on the line.

Also deep down people are upset because AG was smarter than them. They saw the writing on the wall (or in this case the non-working UV ink) shorted their stock and ran.

Even if he had the license who was going to build this?
Even if someone built it they would have run out of money.
Even if they had enough money the game shot like a wet turd.

Listening between the lines, I don't think [Kevin] has an attorney anymore.

"I don't route pinball, except for that business card someone found... That's an internet conspiracy!"

"Do you swear to the tell the middle truth and nothing but the middle truth?"

"Your honor, I am not recalcitrant. In fact, I drink milk everyday!"

Kevin makes the same mistake all habitual liars do, and that's to lie about things that can be clearly proven otherwise.

"Couldn't make it because I was starting a new job"... yet he can't go to jail because he watches his kids while his wife works, he home-schools his kids, the marshalls picked him up at home, and his schedule was completely open for next week's follow-up.

FOR FIFTY POINTS does it sound like Kevin has a job?

I'd agree Kevin did intend to build the games. But he was in WAY over his head long before being exposed.

At shows this game was on its back more than a high school cheerleader. When it did work it was a clunky brick fest. They made no attempt to improve or tweak anything year-after-year, despite having plenty of time.

They would have never met their BOM even with "friends and family" helping build it, which would have lasted maybe a month before going south.

I would bet my left testicle Kevin never created an actual company. He likely has no records beyond 1) list of customers 2) Paypal info 3) Bank statements. If the judge is expecting more he's going to be disappointed.

It seems he did intend to do refunds at one point. Maybe he panicked upon realizing with at least 200k already spent he could never return it all. Now if it was just a simple failure, he could have returned the balance and I think people would have been OK with that. But since the whole thing was predicated on a lie, maybe he didn't think that would be acceptable?

By then, he had tipped over into the "covering up the lie is worse than the lie" stage and dug himself into the hole he's in now.

It reminds me a lot of Peachy Printer https://www.youtube.com/user/PeachyPrinter a $100 Kickstarter printer that failed because one of the partners built a house with the money. Bizarrely, the other partner interviews him on camera (instead of kicking his ass) and they're like "Well, guess this project is done!" It reeks of collusion, and rumors are the printer didn't actually work, so like Kevin, they just tried to bury it.

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DIY headline maker, have fun!

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"I can't remember where I ordered used laptops from online..."

Wouldn't that have a 99% chance of being eBay? It's like testifying in court you can't remember where you bought a Big Mac from.

(Also, WTF buys young kids laptops?)

I think the pinball community has ever right to know the location of the house they purchased.

My guess is he "torched" everything (emails bank account etc) around the same time as the website purge or no later than the IP issues becoming public.

I literally could care less about LCD displays in the Sahara desert.

Can a license agreement even be transferred?

Aaron's right, nobody will pick this up. Indeed it's Keith's job to reclaim as much as possible for his clients, but shopping this around is a waste of time.

EoD probably cost between 20k-50k upfront against a % of each sale down the road.

What a license *costs* has no bearing on its *worth* of course. I'd bet KISS cost more than Metallica, but which was a better deal for Stern?

Isn't today's meeting at Keith's "super scary office" not the court?

I don't buy any of her BS for the simple fact she's still married to Kevin. She even admits how dumb it is.

It's even dumb from a welfare fraud perspective - two singles can squeeze more out of the system than a married couple.

Is he the live-in babysitter? Hung like a horse? Or is there still a "redneck treasure" buried out there she wants a part of once this all blows over?

$1900/cab seems a bit high but it's not far from the ballpark. They're a lot more expensive than people realize... that armor and metal adds up fast.

It goes back to the problem that even if Kevin had the legal right to make these he would have run out of money looooooong before finishing them all.

At which point he would have been at least a honest failed business like Jpop, instead of the outright fraud he is.

Compared to Kevin, yes.

Well Kevin saves a cool 30% right off the top by not paying taxes, so I'm going to go with "yes".

"Cabs" usually means everything but the playfield, PSU's and logic boards. There's a lot of things that go into that. Wide-format graphics alone cost quite a bit.

So $1500, throw on some profit for vendor and yeah, $1900 isn't that insane anymore.

Also keep in mind 475k for cabs total assumes all 250 built. At which point Kevin would have collected 1.1 million(ish) so the cab cost ratio isn't quite as dumb.

Redneck disability = I smoked too much or ate too much and now I'm using that as an excuse for why I can't work.

The off-kilter angles and darkened edges makes me think these are photographs of a computer monitor showing eBay auction items.

Ever see that documentary about the high % of athletes who go broke after making it big? They grow up poor, and don't know how to handle money once they get it.

Every story starts with "First I bought a house for my mom" Hm... Sound familiar?

It seems like the chances of recovery now have been literally washed away. They're now got a great sob story for this very lenient judge.

Sorry about the pizza party folks.

Maybe it's the "lottery effect". You win the lottery and every relative you know comes banging on the door for money.

Or friends hear you scammed half a mil from a "bunch of rich folks" and again, then all come banging on your door wanting a piece.

That's actually the most likely scenario. So again, if you don't want people hounding your dear sweet mamma's boy for money, don't help him steal it in the first place.

Worse yet are people who make their Facebook photo a photo of their kid, talk about nothing BUT their kid, have the kid's name as the password and then wonder how they get hacked.

By this I mean actual Facebook hacking not the laughable "doxxing" claim she makes.

Anything you put on Facebook becomes their property. For instance if you or your friends are good looking enough your pics can get resold as stock photos!

Remember to their redneck family and friends the pinball community are [somehow] the bad guys. To them Kevin was Robin Hood stealing from the rich to feed his 19 kids.

The ironic thing now is they're trying to raise funds from these same broke-ass redneck sycophants - good luck with that!

Imagine if Kevin had built pins the right way - he's have a community of rich people willing to help.

I don't think a single dime will be recovered from the Kuleks now but take solace in the fact that all they obtained through scamming has been washed away.

The Kuleks are now literally underwater on their (reverse) mortgage.

(David Caruso sunglasses GIF goes here)

Yes, even more food stamps they can sell for 50 cents on the dollar, or use to buy loads of soda Kevin can resell in vending machines he bought with PredaBucks.

(Just assuming but those are some typical food stamp scams)

I actually don't think this is a scam. She was probably advised that a separation is the best course for her.

Regarding soda pop: In Wisconsin we say pop and anyone saying soda is a Minnesota transplant.

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I hear they're underwater on their mortgage.

Here's a fun exercise you guys could work on. "Where did the money go?"

It wasn't a million, more like 500k. So...

120k+ to cabinet guys.
50-75k likely to Mythbusters.
30k house
10-20k for all the completed sculpts
2k x however many cab and PF sets he had (6-10 was the rumor)

Plus what else?

Yeah it reminds me of that documentary about how many pro athletes go broke.

I still doubt he spent it all (on development) and instead dumped whatever was left into coin op machines so he could continue his tax free cash business claiming zero income and still get all those government bennies.

Hilton don't forget Mythbusters.

Most licenses won't get out of bed in the morning for anything less than 50k and they usually want it up front.

Oh Star Wars would be much, much much more than that. Why do you think the pro playfield is so empty?

Just because fake Mythbusters theme wouldn't sell doesn't mean the license was free or cheap.

Wow it's almost as if I know what I'm talking about, or something!

She owns the house free and clear. Maybe she can't get a loan but a new buyer could. Plus Habitat for Humanity fixed it up for them! (Amazing how much charity one can get even after stealing half a mil)

She knows damn well that moving out and having to pay rent would cost far more than whatever she pays in property tax.

This is exactly what's up.

The ironic part is as redneck hillbilly "wards of the state" Kevin & Family garnish YOUR wages

Zero chance Kevin only built one of these.

Spooky made him 10 right before the crap hit the fan.