Yup. The sky is certainly falling. Don’t tell the economy though, because we wouldn’t want to slow it down.

What app is that your tracking with?

When I sold my rental, I ended up picking up a bunch of Microsoft (up 12.5%), SPY, and Fidelity Blue Chip Growth. And then some dividend producers like JEPI, JEPQ, SLRC and SVOL in case the market stagnated. Everything is up and the dividends have been fairly high in the six weeks.

It's a website, they do a couple other useful financial visualizations that make it easy to spot trends and track performance quickly for a day or given time period: https://finviz.com/map.ashx

Rusty army ^

6% on the Russell in one day! Wake up bros!

dude, you nailed that one!

DropGems nice one .

I bought in the last few days $8000 worth of SPY and $3000 worth of IWM. As my rolling T-Bills start maturing I am looking at taking some of that and going into SPY and IWM until 2025.

Short term - with the budget spending shenanigans kicked down the road this may be a traditional post October stock season and as kool1 shared we have some historical precedent that things (having already bottomed out) for the short term will go up in the markets. That and it is an election year coming up

I don't think we will hear the Fed saying no more rate hikes for at least a year but it isn't the end of the world with higher rates. As a kid I remembered 5% savings accounts and I think in the 70s too. What slammed everybody was the jarring changes as they happened and everyone was asleep at the wheel.

Make sure your bills and debts are paid and have a safe holiday ahead everybody .

Wise words I'd say

Rate hikes are done, rate cuts likely in Q3 of 24. Markets are telling you this.

Absolutely nothing wrong with locking in fixed income for a few years IMO. 5-6% rates are gold.

Question...

What would happen if Moody's does indeed cut USA AAA rating? At a time where Americas entire economy is running on insane defecits to keep things going? I believe Fitch & S&P already dropped the AAA status. Will moodys raise some eye brows? Or is it a no big deal? I don't ever recall a time where all 3 agencies never had a AAA representation. S&P was first to cut in 2011, I'm sure Americas appetite for debt is alot larger now than 2011, with ongoing in/out government shutdowns, debt ceiling problems and growing defecits, I question when will the next S&P or Fitch down grade happen? Must be getting closer. That's what worries me. I think ditches scale is AA down to A
S&P is AA+ down to AA or AA-
S&P has more sub categories for grading debt

Regardless will a downgrade from Moody's mean anything?
Will another down grade from a y of the other two cause bond sell off and rising yields?

BRONX
We're basically playing with fire. Our politics are unnecessarily dysfunctional. What was once a government that had bipartisan cooperation and compromise to get budgets done has devolved to levels of managerial incompetence that is baffling. We used to have multi-year budgets, often with 10 year time horizons that could theoretically be set on autopilot. Now we struggle to prevent a government shutdown every few months. Hundreds of diplomatic and military postings are unfilled.

If things continue in our politics as they have been - which is to get worse and worse - we face an existential threat to the America we have known and loved.

I'm not engaging in hyperbole here. Take a look around. We have serious international threats. And we've never had an adversary like Chine before. Russia/USSR was never a superior economy to ours. China is rapidly becoming one, if they aren't already. And they have made it clear: they want to dominate the world and are putting the pieces in place to do it.

This is how empires fall: with internal (often self-inflicted) problems and external threats.

deficits don't matter as much as people think they do

Right up until there is a default on the debt.

how can there be a default when the government can just print money to cover the debt

I don't think any investment strategy should revolve around planning on the U.S. defaulting on our debt. If there's one thing our dysfunctional politicians have shown us is while they like edge play, they are willing to drop their bull and compromise just before we go over the cliff. If we do go over that cliff, no investment strategy will save you. The problem with those what if/doomsday scenarios is the people that buy the gold and build the bunkers miss out on a ton of investment profit and don't live happy lives. They don't even live happy lives in the post-apocalyptic movies, they just survive a little longer.

Well, their bunkers aren't filled with pinball machines like mine is

Do you hang out with these guys?? How many have you actually spoken with?

I'm living a happy life...no bunker yet...

gold (resized).jpg

Oil is plunging today.

I guess everybody in America will be able to afford a grease job before it goes back up again.

My biggest problem with end of the world scenarios and gold bug business is that: Okay, say you have a stash of 100 gold coins. That is it.
Meals 1 gold coin each mean you run out of food money with a family of four within a month?

As much as I love the John Wick franchise I laugh when I see the single gold coin used for a room, a drink, information, etc.
Of course for removing bodies with six guys you need six coins .

I'm not even thinking about the end of the world.

Just the lagging result after almost 15 years of near zero interest came to an end.

Sorry everyone, I'm still a little bit confused here!

Ok watching that funky video and listening to some pinsiders on here, it appears that a powerful nation will not default. Since they can just print more and more and more, ok then. Then why do we have 3 main bond credit agencies rating every nations bonds for ? Also if memory serves me right didn't Mexico default in the early 90s? in South America Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, actually almost all of them did, the 90s was a bad era. The Latin America debt crisis of the 80s. In Europe Greece and Portugal defaulted on some bonds in 2011-2
In asia Turkey had a few defaults, Japan in 1952 lol, Sunny Barbados recently aswell. didn't Ukraine default in the late 90s? Russia defaulted within the past year aswell, also didn't United Kingdom, yes the U.K pretty much default but got last minute emergency loans by the iMF in the early 80s to avoid a true definition of a default. These are just to name a few, alot of close calls thats not worth noting or else I can spend days listing them on here. How come none of these nations didn't watch the video posted on here a few hours ago and listen to that intelligent lady and just keep creating monster defecits, print, and repeat, everything is good

A few good points...

For every defecits, you add money supply, for every money supply addition you get diluted. The U.S dollar since the Nixon administration has lost 99% of its purchasing power, to me that's pretty much a *Default* gold in which Im not a gold bug has at least maintained its purchasing power. I'm curious which investment is more superior since Nixona administration, Let's use 1971 era purchase 1oz of gold at $24.00usd 1971 price or buy $24.00 t-bills in 1971 and what it's worth today, Gold is now $2000.00 so that investment alone is up 83fold. S&p500 closed under 100 in 1971, so that investment is up 45fold in the same time span assuming you didn't reinvest the dividends. Not everyone can reinvest the dividends since alot of folks us it for income. I'm sure if you reinvested all the dividends it would perform like gold give or take.
But the t-bills, no way it would compare to gold

Gold represents the folks who do not agree with that funky video and governments loose fiscal policies at all vs the ones who do agree the that woman in that video and defecits are great. And if all fails, just print!

What would perform better in the next 25yrs 2023-2048
$2000 gold bar
$2000 investment in S&p500
$2000 investment in T-bills
Or here is a new one $2000 in another market equity e.t.f perhaps Singapore, Japan, India, China, Brazil, or all of them?

Any thoughts???

Also how can some financial engineering firm like Lehman Bros who created new financial instruments like Credit default swaps to name a few, engineer a new twist in gold where you can earn dividends/income in holding gold? I know in cryptos you can " stake cryptos" lol to potentially earn income. Can something goofy be engineered into the gold market? To earn income while you hold ....interesting, if Goldman Sachs or equivalent is reading this post, and could engineer some sort of twist for the gold market.... You guys created negative intrest rates, cds, CDO, and a bunch of instruments. Play with gold.

Our economy is most dependent on the dollar remaining the world reserve currency. That means we are basically running the show until or if that changes which would be catastrophic for the USA.

USA dollar has been the world currency since the end of WWII. In other words, almost 80 years. Prior to that it was The UK Sterling or Pound for almost 100 years. World currencies change hands and can do so again depending on a number of factors.

In the period following the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944, exchange rates around the world were pegged to the United States dollar, which could be exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. This reinforced the dominance of the US dollar as a global currency.

What determines a reserve currency

A reserve currency needs to be stable and safe, a store of value and a medium of exchange, and widely accepted and trusted.

This is according to an analysis by Vivek Joshi writing in India’s Sunday Guardian, who also notes additional societal and economic criteria for a global reserve currency. These include:

The stability of the political system of the issuing country.
The size and prospects of the economy.
Global integration of its markets and economy.
A transparent and open system.
A credible legal system.
The quality of its sovereign debt.
The ability to bear costs associated with a reserve currency.
The size, depth and liquidity of financial markets.

That's exactly right. We're not there yet. I'm not a doomsday bunker-builder by any means. Its more that the trends concern me: in several of those categories that made the U.S. the world's reserve currency, we are experiencing stresses. Of course, many other nations are, too. And we all know China's lack of transparency and rule of law will hinder their ambitions to replace the U.S. as the world reserve currency (WRC) when they feel they are ready to be it. But that's part of my concern: China is ascendent in every way. If trends continue, there will come a day when the switch gets flipped and the U.S. is no longer the WRC. That's when we become England.

That switch to another WRC doesn't have to be to China. It could be to the Japanese Yen, the Euro, etc. It doesn't matter. Losing WRC status would be the moment the U.S. officially becomes a fallen empire (using that historical term figuratively here).

Re: Gold

One of the things that I have always been hung up on is the cost of friction. What I mean is:
1) who are you buying it from?
2) who are you selling it to?
3) where are you storing it?

All three have costs and risks associated with them that I just can't really get beyond. Ex: I don't especially want that much valuable metal (a true investment amount) sitting around my house, and I don't want to pay to store it anywhere so...ugh.

valid points you have to watch the premium they charge now - so you basically start $150 in the hole for holding metal. I have used ETFs before, not the ones that dont hold all the $$ in gold but the good ones. Just can't think of a symbol right now.

S&P500: The dividend reinvestment is pretty key to the overall performance:

IMG_7983.jpeg

Think about switching to the exact same asset allocation from mutual fund into etfs , cost are less and you’re not subject to the cap Gaines the fund already had before you buy it . Mutual funds are not very tax efficient for the most part . Etfs for the most part don’t distribute tax gains each year . Other tip o can give you try to own your fixed income on your own name vs a fund or etf .

Yes the premium.in gold and silver is absolutely ridiculous

That's another reason I might purchase Enbridge soon and drip the dividends Oaken nailed it, or Canadian bank. key is to reinvest dividends. Market got heated last 2 weeks, I. Waiting for a potential breather to jump in

Deflation is trending in the stock blogsphere, not because they're happy about it, it's the thing they were fearing most. Slowing down too much, too fast. In other words hard landing....which is just freaking weird, because it's just days after rallying due to better inflation picture.

When the market has been going up and down as fast as it has and as much as it has in such a short time, that is far from normal. Or perhaps the new normal? I do like rollercoasters though.

I purchase small gold Monthly. If you don't hold it you don't own it.Yes, various "Funds" pay more in interest.
Good sleep and lack of worry are important factors in obtaining happiness.
You go in a bathroom for specific purposes. You go in the kitchen to cook.
You go in a bunker when your life is threatened. Just another room in your living arrangement.
Too many people want to cast negative images on bunker owners or gold stackers, preppers in general.
Trust me, you won't care what anyone thinks about you if SHTF and you are prepared.

I had a friend swear to buy silver instead of any other precious metals just for it's utility in doomsday scenarios. He was like Bubba but instead of shrimp it was things you can use silver for when the end is nigh.

Physical silver premiums above spot is ridiculous, north of 10%. Unless you buy the contract, I believe 5000oz is smallest for spot pricing, you are paying a hefty premium if you buy bits and pieces

What the hell ya’ll gonna do with shiny metal while you’re eating beans in a bunker?

Refer me to the episode of TWD or The Last Of Us where a gold coin got anybody out of a jam.

Touché!

Survivalists? I've met too many up here in the Northwest in small towns and at gun shows. No one hangs out with them, they smell bad and tend to be white power. And it's funny how many aren't great at camping, fishing, hunting and surviving, they are more concept guys, buying gold, hating government, and learning "survival" from Youtube videos. There are a few oldtimer ones that have skillz though, my dad's 85 and one of the biggest old school gun collectors in the state, he's got some friends that have full bunkers that have lived that life for 5 or 6 decades.

The govt can add as much money as they want as often as they want and give it to whoever or whatever they want including covering its expenses.

Refusal to cover their debts and payments would be like someone with a $100,000 balance in their check book refusing to not pay their CC bill, mortgage and utility bills that month even if they added up to $3000 for that month total.

So yes it is possible for someone with money to go into collections, foreclosure and/or default. Sure. Govt can also……if they choose. Not a good idea.

The added money is great and all but doesn’t mean much if we don’t have a system where goods, services, healthcare, infrastructure, a skilled educated workforce that creates innovative products and services for now and in the future.

The United States “tends” to do this.

Like will Social Security payments run out? That’s scary!! Oh No no no, money will be added to cover the balances. But what if there were few doctors and hospitals, shortage of medications, low senior housing, no bingo halls?? Now that would be bad. The added money has to be used to keep up a system that provides goods and services to the recipients. And if the goods and services get better, like safer operations, better prescriptions, etc the recipients win and so do the businesses that made it happen.

Well money will be added unless a group on govt refused to cover the bills. Possible.

Like Privatize SS? I think I would rather have an institution that can print money to cover the bills instead. You? Greenspan goes over the part above money and real assets to provide the recipients. Paul Ryan get all this? He has no clue. Don’t be Paul! Ha ha.

I can refer you to an episode of real life in Venezuela. Inflation crippled their worthless currency. People are actively buying essential goods with gold, much of it panned from Rivers and streams in-Country and gleaned from jewelry..
Gold is a Tier 1 asset, which is why central banks around the World are buying TONS.
In the past year I have identified suppliers of meat, auto parts, farm supplies who will accept gold.
The guy who delivered my motorcycle preferred the 3 silver Maples I gave him instead of a 100 dollar bill.
I know it's not for everyone. For me it's just another form of currency if the current one gets in trouble.
Other assets like whiskey, cigs,bullets, eggs could become Tier 1 assets.
Have lost much faith in silver, as long as its manipulated will never reach its true price. Still keep a few hundred ounces in case the day comes its desired or needed.

I have no idea if you actually know what you're claiming about this group or not but your intolerance toward them is incredible. Have they harmed you in some way?

He didn't seem intolerant at all. Just seemed like he peacefully coexists with some seriously batshit crazy people.

Morons (resized).png

Both of you are so intolerant that you don't even see it.

Gold may work in Venezuela, but only because the rest of the world's economy is functioning and making a market for gold that can be traded for currency. Guess what else works in Venezuela and other countries where local currency has been devalued? Lots of stuff including Dollars and Euros. If USA becomes a Venezuela, which it will not, all bets would be off.

My main point was that a true bunker, beans, and bullets scenario in the USA (very unlikely in our lifetime) would render precious metals as worthless as paper money for apocalyptic commerce activities.

Lastly, please put me in touch with people who like to receive $75 worth of silver for $100 worth of currency. I would like to do some trading with them!

1oz silver Maple coin is ~$33 right now, so $100 for 3 seems about right.