(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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Post #5101 Roth conversion advice. Posted by iceman44 (3 years ago)

Post #19981 How To Read US Debt Clock Posted by pinnyheadhead (5 months ago)


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#90 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

I disagree for myself. I believe I do better than an advisor who takes money out for his advice and may have ulterior motives to recommend some thing that pay better but probably are no better than low cost index funds.

Absolutely...for complete idiots yes an advisor is better than nothing, but for most they'd be better off with something like a Vanguard total stock market index fund...park it and let it ride, 5 years before your retirement put 50% in bonds or Munis and keep the rest in the same fund, every year readjust..repeat till you're dead.

#98 7 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Short trade is working here.. but I wont count my chickens before they hatch. Waiting to see if we can get some selling pressure into the close to confirm a reversal into tomorrow.

It's a trap Luke!!

Ackbar_HS (resized).jpgAckbar_HS (resized).jpg

#138 7 years ago

Not saying it couldn't happen but the fundamentals are not there, unemployment at 40 yr low, low interest rates, low oil prices, several stimulus packages on the docket, business tax cuts also in the pipe. I think everyone thinking a recession is imminent is worried because this is one of the longest period of growth in history, but that's not a good enough qualifier. What if there is paradigm shift happening? Not everything has to follow historic trends. You always have to be suspicious of market indicators and the background noise. I don't try to time the market, that's dangerous. So I recently rebalanced and put half the money in financials and consumer defensive funds. I also bought energy. The rest I have in SP 500 and a Large/Mid Cap dividend funds. If the market falls, the financials will still be strong. Energy is picking up steam again too. Lastly the dividend funds will also take the edge off of any major pull back.

#161 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Generally if the advisor is making money off the amount of your portfolio and also making money off the funds they advise you to buy (via kick backs 12b fees and such) that's bad.

This is common practice. I know people in this racket.

#198 7 years ago

Magic eight ball says: Yes!

1 month later
#326 7 years ago
Quoted from ninjabones:

Interesting book if you have not read it already. 800 years of data, sixty countries, 5 continents... the evidence suggests that preceding every crisis, experts convince themselves that "this time is different" (aka, "there is a paradigm shift happening"). However, they ended up being wrong every time. But, you never know... maybe Yellen and her merry band of central banking alchemists (fabricating fiat and spewing it out of their arses) really do have this all figured out.

You misunderstood what I was implying, I was not saying that a correction or pullback was never going to happen, only that the chart readers were sending out jitters again just because this was one of the longest bull markets in history. The fact that we've had several bull markets longer than the average ones suggest there are bull markets that have more staying power than others. I was merely saying that this one could be one of those. I went on to say why I thought this market has legs. You can look at historical data all you want, without putting the present external factors in context with it, they're meaningless. The OP had went short at that time, I suggested that was not the correct play for that time. This market will pull back when this administration hits it's first bump in the road. This can come soon, either in the form of a border tax with Mexico or a tariffs war with China.

PS: My co-worker and friend thought the valuations were too rich when Dow hit 17000 in 2014, he cashed out then. I estimate he's lost out on 15-20 percent growth since then.

#330 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Most gains come on just a few very big days. You don't want to miss the big day/week. If you are out of the market waiting to see a positive turn around you are likely to miss some really big days.

That's exactly right....if you diversify correctly the downside is low and you can still participate in the growth. Cashing out is not a good strategy, unless you're a day trader and in that case it's just a matter of time.

#334 7 years ago

And so it begins....the first leg down.

#336 7 years ago

Relax....there are other things at play here. If you don't know then you're in the wrong thread.

4 years later
#10684 3 years ago

Yikes, NASDAQ, TESLA and ARK
download (1) (resized).jpgdownload (1) (resized).jpg

#10701 3 years ago

Well, this is a sign to trade out of these crazy valuation names and get into some boring blue chips. Although you don't have to panic yet, with the stimulus and reopening/vaccine rally still in the mail..we'll get a nice chance to exit near the highs.

#10755 3 years ago
Quoted from MrBally:

I'd say the professionals are pumping and dumping stocks. Look how after the recent drop of Tesla from $890 down to $740 some analysts and firms gave buy recommendations with targets over $1000/share. Now below $575.....

Ha, yeah...but it's always been pump and dump, nothing is changed. Tesla's market cap is higher than GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, Honda and VW combined! WTF! collectively they made 45-50 million cars, Tesla made 500k. I dunno, I thought it was expensive at 400 and that's before the split..lol.

#10767 3 years ago
Quoted from robertmee:

Tesla isn't a car company. Its a technology company, so comparing cars it makes to companies that strictly are auto makers isn't apples to apples. BUT with that said, I agree TSLA is way over valued.

That's what they keep telling the retail investors so they keep buying.

#10786 3 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

I agree. TSLA is just a car company at the moment. I hear this "it's a tech company tho" argument and I think, how so?
What tech are they selling that accounts for their revenue and earnings? Do they license their autopilot technology for other cars? No. Other car mfgs have their own autopilot system. In fact the autopilot-like system in my wife's 2020 Audi S7 is more confidence inspiring (and imo better and smoother) than the Autopilot in my Tesla Model Y.
Tesla makes electric cars. That's cool. Pretty sure every other car manufacturer makes electric cars now to, or will be.
Tesla also does solar. Big deal. Solar companies are not tech companies, and neither is battery storage..in fact, prior to TSLA acquiring SolarCity, SolarCity was a money losing business and Solar + Battery sales do not even factor into TSLA's overall revenue stream.
The stock reacts off literally a single thing... How many CARS WERE DELIVERED. Period. That's their business model. Same as every other car company. They sell cars that have cool tech but they don't sell cool tech alone.
Until TSLA takes their OS and makes a Tesla Smartphone and actually makes money with something other than building cars, they are just an overpriced car company and the "it's a tech company" argument is just a falicy.
This is coming from a guy who has owned 3x Tesla's and love the products but at the end of the day... It's just a cool car company.

The market is 50% hype and 50% finance....the hype in Tesla is so crazy it will be in college books, I'm old enough to remember crazy valuations of the dot com era...only a few made it out alive....the retail guys (including myslef) lost our assess...the Infospace, Lycos, CMGI...etc

RIP....Webvan

#10797 3 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Old history and old ways of benchmarking have caused the Cramer's and Wall Street dinosaurs to miss so much.
Apple is a perfect example. Totally missed and keep missing how to value it. The coming innovation and new revenue streams are never factored in. Just using old metrics.
They are doing the same thing with Tesla and other disruptors. Just don't get it. Yes Tesla has to be MUCH more than a "car company".
Interesting Cathie Wood take from yesterday.

Cathie Wood, like all the other Wunderkind before her (Plotkin, Einhorn, Cohen, Raj, Fold) look and sound great till suddenly they don't......When the shit hits the fan her Ark stuff will be down more than anyone, cause all she has is in her basket are highflyers. mode stocks. I know she up 140%...and a tip of the hat to her but the music will stop and everyone will look for a chair....Cathie will be one of the last to find a chair.

#10802 3 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Lot of internet chatter about GNOG's warrants being redeemed tomorrow. People are thinking that this might rocket the stock. Can somebody more familiar with warrants help me understand the implications for the trade tomorrow?
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/golden-nugget-online-gaming-announces-redemption-of-public-warrants-2021-02-04

Take this with a grain of salt because I don't follow GNOG...but if you heard chatter about it it's most likely due to a dilutive effect warrants have on the stock...in essence when you redeem warrants more shares (paper) get issued, which theoretically brings the collective value of the already outstanding shares down.

PS: Now it's more important than ever (with Robin Hood and zero commission) for the retail investor without a financial background to only invest in Mutual/Index funds and ETFs. Stock picking is hard and dangerous....you can invest in the SP index and beat 80% of the fund managers.

A study by Vanguard found that 18% of active mutual fund managers beat their benchmarks over a 15-year period.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnjennings/2020/09/23/beating-the-market-is-simple-but-not-easy/?sh=571ca5607b6a

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/active-fund-managers-trail-the-sp-500-for-the-ninth-year-in-a-row-in-triumph-for-indexing.html

#10834 3 years ago
Quoted from MrBally:

No need to start a civil war. Every investment decision is my own responsibility. I had funds available on that day, listened to what someone said {no names} and placed my bet.
Fortunately I'm in the John Goodman position from The Gambler so no worries....

FU money....I love that scene. I'm almost there myself, I need to buy a boat first then off to the fortress of solitude.

#10835 3 years ago
Quoted from greenhornet:

speaking of index funds:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY HAS RECOVERED +164.9 [+74%]
FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOWS.
MAR 05, 2021 [383.6]
MAR 23, 2020 [223.0]
ADD DIVDNDS PD 4.3
==============
+164.9
care to venture a guess as to how much of that 165 point gain was attributable to the ~250 cash trading sessions [9:30-4:00ET] during those 50 weeks [1600 trading hours]?






***** ZERO *****
in fact, SPY ** LOST ** nearly 40 points during those cash sessions. if you bought the open and sold the close each day, you would be down 18%.
SPYs entire gain occurred overnight in the futures market, after first making up for 40 pts lost during the cash sessions, a combined total of 200+ points.
check out AAPL. all gains overnight.
[quoted image]

AAPL has been a great stock but you can't possibly compare it to the safety you get from VOO or SPY index....one BS viral article about a bad batch of screens or batteries and it will blow hole through your portfolio.

-1
#10861 3 years ago

You guys better tight stops, PINS benefited from the Pandemic, the added users per month number will skew down in the coming quarters once the world opens up again. The PE ratio is 69x...which is weeee bit high. But who knows.... maybe they'll grow into it.

#10868 3 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

It's a growth stock. MSFT attempted to purchase PINS at a MUCH higher price.
Buying more at these levels for the LONG TERM.
The users worldwide are going UP and so is the adoption of Shopify spending, "e-commerce", digital ad spending going UP along with "search".
As the "world opens up", so does travel, weddings, birthdays etc. NO BRAINER!
For that matter buying and loading up in the teen's on PINS we already have a lifetime of gains booked. I can't even get it to 12 months holding period until next month and May.
If you don't have a 3-5 yr time horizon then just put your money into the 10 yr treasury.
Buy and Hold, and then BUY MORE when it goes on sale. Harder to implement in real time isn't it?
If you don't USE volatility, fear and panic, to your advantage then you better figure it out.
Or just load into Game Stop and take your chances. Lol

You make some good points, as long as they can monetize, it should work

#10910 3 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I saw that. MSFT will keep winning by adding more subscription revenue streams to the ecosystem.
These massive tech companies have the best talent pool in the world, the $$$, and the timing with AI, 5G, machine learning and everything else to continue to outperform.
I wouldn't bet against any of them.

MSFT is a good buy only because of the undervalued Cloud business.....the growth potential of the cloud play is real. With that said I'm still waiting on a bigger pullback. Full disclosure I hold QQQ, about 10% of my portfolio.

#10912 3 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Massive rally on the Nasdaq today! You should have bought yesterday and sold it today!!! LOL

I bought a lot of other stuff...I'm up big today, enough for a few GNRs

#10964 3 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

My portfolio was down 40Kish during the latest downturn. I bought a trio of ARK funds and GRWG that were down 30% or so already. Today might make back around $15K+ so that will help. Only down on half my holdings, but they were down big.

You're way too heavy on that. First rule is wealth protection. Diversify that portfolio, this a good chance

#10969 3 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Ark bought more DraftKings and SKLZ today
Slow transaction day for them

Lol....you got ice in your veins, you're either going to be hero or a zero....I hope it's the former Icebro

#11046 3 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I’m def a hero for the $1 Billion of client money I manage. And always will be with the plan and approach we take.
It takes some “ice in the veins”, balls or just common sense long term conviction and perspective to BUY THE DIPS
Did most people continue to sell out of fear and panic over the inflation boogeyman?
Or did yo buy the 10%+ dip?

I did but not NASDAQ stock, I have QQQ. I bought some LVS and BA right before the pop. Sad thing is I had 1200 share of BA till a couple of weeks and a dumped at 215. I rode it up from 190. I only rebought 300 shares and then it popped to 250..lol.

#11158 3 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

is there really enough volume from stimulus check investors to move the market?

For a bit yes, and reaching herd immunity. Not to mention the July 4th date that Biden put on. We'll see some great movement till the next Fed meeting when they will freak out about the inflation rate and the market will pull back. At least 10-15%...I'm only guessing but we know we got inflation...look at the pin prices

#11169 3 years ago

Next Fed meeting is March 17, most think Powell will not raise alarm because we're still in the midst of the pandemic and struggling with unemployment but the one set for July might be different story, the inflation rate might too much to ignore then. So keep your eyes peeled on that 10 yr treasury yield....if it keeps going up, the pressure will be on tech stocks.

#11179 3 years ago
Quoted from Pin-Pilot:

Yes, I have been expecting a correction but so far it has not appeared.
I will be ready thought when it happens. Just doing trades with options not really buying any stocks unless there is something that is a super good buy.

wait for a pullback on Boeing or GE and pick some up, BA will hit 300 soon. I've been in and out of that trade since 130 level.

#11188 3 years ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

Isn't what the large institutions do everyday, daytading? I mean, this has been done forever right? Just more frequently now by the average Joe because of the accessibility and low cost.

Not even, they have black boxes doing a hundred trades in a milisecond. Not to mention the whole clearing houses bs that routes your orders through their own servers while upcharging you.

#11349 3 years ago

Everything and I mean everything minus oil and transportation is in cuckoo land. The fall maybe months away but the check is in the mail..that's for sure.

#11373 3 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Interesting - gold is suddenly spiking

We all should be watching this.....now tell the younguns why would gold be going up....

#11395 3 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Gold has been on a big downward trend since it's peak last August 6th with occasional spikes up. It's larger trend is dropping and looks like it has a long way to fall still if you follow it's larger cycle. I bet it will continue to drop towards a bottom of around $1200 an ounce. I've never understood gold bugs, the market will make you so much more money, invest in miners, not gold itself.

Yes, we can attribute the spike last year to covid, but even when you take the spike out of the chart and look at either 2 yr or 3 yr chart....it's been a steady rise. I don't trade it but I look at it because the whales use it as a hedge. The recent spike looks very unnatural, almost as if they're doing some massive inflation hedge.

#11402 3 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Both tech and metals get hit
Uranium is immune so far glad I bought more yesterday

It looks like it's going to get ugly today

#11416 3 years ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

I'm not seeing this gold "spike" you guys are talking about. Just take a look at the chart for the last few months. I don't see anything abnormal. I do think it needs to do a lot more "spiking" up....

Yeah..it's nothing that pronounced but it did break the recent trend the other pinsider was talking about.

gold (resized).jpggold (resized).jpg
#11448 3 years ago

I'm buying now, 15 minutes to close.......just no tech stocks

#11486 3 years ago

Mmm. Look like the Market wants to reverse...let's see where it ends, it is Friday so I doubt it will end too much in the green

#11500 3 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I'm doing the opposite of most of you - looking for opportunities to raise cash. A few warning shots over the bow. Maybe a bigger drop coming?

Same, I'm 25% cash now.....I actually went down to 40% cash but I did a lot of buying yesterday. This the hardest part, to control your itchy finger. A lot of stocks are trading past their peak pre-covid prices. It's all guess work of course, it could go 2 ways, good news on the reopening, bad news on inflation....when you pump almost 2 trillion dollars into the market at once you can expect a major rise in prices.

#11505 3 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

All the IPOs, and others diluting shares with new offerings, lots of speculation. I'm getting a bit nervous. Keep in mind I'm 55 and no longer have a real job, so I need to be more cautious.

Haha, I'm 50 myself....but hey that's not old. But you're absolutely right, first rule in investing is wealth protection. Powell said very dovish things but the bond market went the other way anyway, so it tells me they're not buying it...they're doing their own version of wealth protection so I follow the guys with the money.

#11569 3 years ago

Now we can add another catalyst for a big corrections, so we've had inflation, unwarranted high valuation and now the looming tax increase on capital gains.

#11658 3 years ago

It's not really all that bad....sorry but it could get worse. I bought Hilton and then pulled up the chart and realized it's higher now than pre-covid. How is that even possible? I dumped it the today in the AM, same with Delta. Prices are insane

#11667 3 years ago

Tomorrow sans some surprise news will be an up day. The Hedge guys are busy recalibrating their portfolios, selective buying I guess. But NASDAQ will probably see more pain in the coming week or so. I'm holding plenty QQQ myself, so I'm not happy.

#11683 3 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

I view Leveraged etfs like I do naked options.
Don’t.

Also if you do research long term gain is not a whole lot better than regular ETFs, but on the way down it's much worse.

#11684 3 years ago
Quoted from robertmee:

It dropped dramatically today?

CDC extended the ban on cruises...till Nov IIRC

#11696 3 years ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

I would have to think that the more people buy into getting the vaccines the sooner the cruise line industry can flourish again.

Yes...I'm not that big of a gambler. I need to see how much debt they took on before I jump into cruise lines...I think the easy and safe money is in energy...XLE, XOM or CVX.
BTW, I never would have thought the market would be down this much after yesterday...certainty the mood has changed. And it is only mood because the fundamentals are still exactly as last week or the week before that...so this is just a head fake for the S&P for the most part. On the Nasdaq it's anyone's guess.

#11717 3 years ago

Most of these gyrations are Blackbox trading.

-1
#11749 3 years ago

Go easy on PLTR, it's a solid company but the growth maybe hampered by some strong competition from bigger and more established rivals. Snowflak, Cognizant, Tyler tech are bad asses in their segments. The other other I hear about on here is Pintrest, I honestly don't believe the monetization story, they're comparing it to FB model...I don't think it's got that kind of potential. Now the stock price has nothing to do with fundamentals so buying the dips and selling the spikes maybe a smart play.

#11752 3 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

PLTR is not in the same category as the ones that you mentioned. It's direct competitors would be things like C3.AI, SumoLogic, etc. You do realize that Palantir has been around for 17+ years, right? They are very well established. I am not a fan necessarily of their company but know their business well
Snowflake: Big Data cloud warehouse
Cognizant: Some AI but focused in other areas
Tyler Tech: Public Sector Software and Services

Yes, I've read their story, the CEO is an established guy, a Paypal founder As I understand it it's deep data mining with AI tech....50% of their earnings are coming from gov contracts for obvious reasons. All those companies are providing the same services with a huge support infrastructure behind them

#11755 3 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

If you are not in tech and are not well versed in the Big Data and Analytics market spaces I could see where one could conflate these companies. As somebody that is in these spaces and work with the companies that you listed, I can tell you they are in different swim lanes.

Fair enough....I don't know software and meta data, but I have a background in finance. Morgan Stanley's paper had some good info on their outlook.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+Despite+Upside%2C+Morgan+Stanley+Doubles+Down+on+Palantir+Technologies+Inc.+%28PLTR%29+Underweight%2C+PT+Raised+to+%2419/17985869.html

#11808 3 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Looks like it's had a nice bounce off it's bottom MACD is extremely bullish on this stock- Think I'll watch it.

Boeing spiked today....It was up over 6 in premarket...also looks like some good bank stocks might be discounted today.

#11810 3 years ago

Sold 50% stake in BA at 254.00....looks like the market maybe headed lower

#11816 3 years ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

[quoted image]

I'm surprised she has some established/profitable names on that list...not just high flying tech start ups. This fund's lineup looks pretty good.
She's moving up, from small caps to mid and large cap names. This is a smart move in an inflationary environment

#11830 3 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

still seems like there is downward momentum on both of those

PLTR may see sub 20...maybe then you could pull trigger

#11849 3 years ago
Quoted from MrBally:

I'm also ahead on long term investments including Rockwell Automation, Boeing and some utilities. I agree that there is money to be made or lost short term as well.....

Nice....don't forget Caterpillar with the omnibus infrastructure bill coming, I'm also going to go in big on the industrials and manufacturers. Honeywell, 3M etc. I even picked up some cruise stocks...They will inevitably pop when the moratorium on cruising is lifted.

#11858 3 years ago

With vaccine numbers being ahead of forecast and death and infection rate down I think this month is the last month the hardest hit stocks will be on sale, .....Next month they're going to trend sharply upwards. Be invested and hold on. Oil, cruise lines, airlines, Vegas hotels, Uber, Lyft and most manufacturing including Boeing are going to pop!!!

#11876 3 years ago
Quoted from robertmee:

And yet the CDC just came out on record as saying we are in for the worst few months again, and will see large spikes in cases, and has a sense of impending doom.

Yes....In my opinion it's only a blip or temporary spike due to Spring Break, I live in Miami, on the beach it was as if we didn't have a pandemic going on, the kids were everywhere doing their thing and undoubtedly spreading the virus. Of course the only danger lurking on the horizon is if there is a new deadlier variant...other than that we'll be good as long as Jerome avails cheap money. Buy high quality and less speculative names and stay invested.

#11953 3 years ago
Quoted from LITZ:

I exit if we get a close on or under the 4 ema on the daily chart. If intraday it slashes through that level I instantly sell. My other rule is to close out positions that have gone sideways for three days in a row. I can reenter the trade if the previous high is taken out, or the previous low is broken if I am going short using puts.
By sticking to my single breakout/ breakdown chart pattern and using price targets that are based on the volume profile chart with proper risk management, it is highly unlikely I will blowup my account. Been there, done that! Made back 6 figure losses (2012, 2015-2018) and more last year in the trading contest. 2019 I was breakeven. 2020 did 150K. This year I am up over 375K YTD thanks to MARA and RIOT.
I forgot to mention that I at the end of each month I transfer all of the profits out of the trading account to prevent me from giving any of that money back to the mkt. I reset the account to the base level I started the year

I didn't want to pay AMZN 10.00 the authors/ publishers / families are only missing out on a few bucks by the time Jeffery gets his cut.

Do yourself a favor and take 25% profit and put it in bonds. Just 25, you can still gamble with the other 75%

#11954 3 years ago
Quoted from Baiter:

It is absolutely a risk if you YOLO trades. The key to reduce risk (and thus increase success) is to be very picky about what, how, and when you are trading. There are ways to be very selective on high probability trades while limiting downside risk. Years ago I read books, listened to friends and coworkers, even picked the right stocks, but picking the right stocks at the wrong time and then not knowing when to bail can be devastating.
Quite a while back I YOLO'd on some trades, had some big wins and also had some big losses. I traded for a couple more years even dabbling in options, but at the end of the day I was doing nothing but generating commissions for my broker. So I just gave it up... and did mostly buy and hold in my IRA... and it did a little better for me. But when I look back on it if I bought and held the right stocks (many of which I had been trading at the time) I'd have been wealthy long ago.
The past year was akin to the 1999 internet bubble... anyone could make money by throwing a dart, and the only concern was which stock was going to make even more. You don't learn from success like you do from failure. Considering you didn't make money the past 4 years, that tells me is that you probably learned a lot of what not to do, and that will set you up for the next 4 years that will see more churning and more downturns. But you have to learn how to improve your success rate.
I got back into learning to trade recently so that I can be better prepared for the churning/downturning markets.... and it's showing me what I was doing wrong, and my bearings are getting back to where they should be. See my previous post and/or feel free to PM me if you have questions.

This market has all the hallmarks of a bubble too, but as the other Pinsider said you have to be in the game to make money. So we're all gambling...just keep your eyes peeled for the signs to get out. Normally the market will flash you warning signs before it blows up.
For now we're on a ride.

#11997 3 years ago
Quoted from KornFreak28:

Don’t have access to the article. Is this good or bad news for us holders?

Nothing all that material to the stock itself. He's just selling out of his options...they were planned sale anyway...I doubt the it will move the needle much

1 week later
#12096 3 years ago

Buying BA and GM dips. I may jump back into hotels for a quick trade HLT, LVS, MGM

#12170 3 years ago
Quoted from edcianci:

just a laugh on paying off the mortgage - mine has been paid off forever - but my taxes are so high living in the northeast that it's like a mortgage payment - i have my main house and vacation house paid off, but the taxes for them are still over 1300 per month - so basically i still have a mortgage.

Not bad, my mortgage is 3000 a month, (taxes are included which is approaching 7k a yr, Insurance is 6k a yr). I need almost another 1000 for utilities and maintenance costs.

#12177 3 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Those are expensive utilities! My power/light is about $150 a month in the fall and winter, $75 in the spring and summer. Water/sewer/garbage $150 a month. Gas heat/stove is $100 a month in fall and winter, $35 a month in spring and summer. My utilities average out to less than $500 a month in peak times, half that between April-September.

Quoted from fosaisu:

Seattle has a pretty mild climate though. I'd guess kvan pays a tidy sum for A/C in Miami. He also included "maintenance" so maybe he just throws kick-ass parties.

Well. it's a big old leaky house too, I pay about 400-500 in electric in the summer. I have 2 A/C units, one 5 ton, the other 2 ton they run pretty much all day and night. I pay almost 200 for internet and tv, then there is lawn and pool care, water and sewer, alarm...3 cell phones. I'm probably forgetting a couple of things.

#12191 2 years ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

What's everyone buying today?

Added some Boeing and Facebook...not convinced either will move up in the short term . But they're long term keepers no matter which way the market goes.

#12197 2 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I bought some Paypal about a month ago and it's 4% up already, I think it's a solid long term investment.

Nice! Today is nothing but a head fake, everything is down about 5%... which tells me it's an orderly sell off. I'm not worried...yet

#12209 2 years ago

The short term might hold more downside pain (next week or so at the most)...this is a head fake, they'll return to the previous levels after this shakeout. The only dark cloud on the horizon is the cap tax increase and inflation but I don't think it's something we need to worry about in the short term. Powell has stated there won't be any interest hikes till next year, that leaves the tax hike and that may not be on the docket till we fully recover from the pandemic so maybe late next year...all signs point to higher levels.

#12221 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

From what I am seeing, there is going to be significant inflation this year.
Our vendors are all increasing prices 5-15% already.

That's true but he will keep rates low....even with inflation the stocks that will be most affected are the startups and the ones in the growing phase. The litmus test is do you think the economy will put up better number come this December or worse? If you think there is going to be re-opening boom then inflation will be a small haircut factor (less than 10%). Don't forget there is close to 6 trillion Dollars of free money dumped into the pot.

Quoted from DBLM:

Throwing out a name for you: UWMC. I am a proud bag holder of this stock, which is the leader in the wholesale mortgage business. They played hardball with RKT here recently and won. Sadly, I bought some around 12.25 and then averaged down in the 8's, and we have dropped below that. Just got an analyst bump today at Barclay's (link below) and interest rates have dropped to their lowest levels in 2 months. Pays a decent dividend. Highly speculative, and I am down a good portion, but may interest some of you.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3683865-uwm-holdings-stock-snags-overweight-rating-at-barclay-on-market-share-prospects

I have small dividend play stock to throw out for you guys too, Two Harbor Investments (TWO) this is stock is amazing, I thought for sure they'd be toast with the pandemic but the mgmt of this company is just phenomenal. Their dividend record is excellent. it's crazy....close to 10%

#12240 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

Anybody think NFLX is a buy?
think I am a buyer if it drops under $500

I don't think so, not in the short term....too much competition coming online, Disney+. Paramount+, CBS-Viacom, HBOMax etc. at best they can hope to just hold the line at this point. I don't see the kind of growth they've been enjoying.

#12242 2 years ago
Quoted from TRAMD:

I am losing my ass on CCIV and not sure what to do. I already averaged down a bit but that just increased my holding size and therefore my losses since. I am down almost 50% ($7000) on it. I haven't experienced this kind of loss before. I am probably going to just hold and wait (I can do so for years, if necessary), but I am a little concerned about it just tanking more and never recovering and think perhaps I should just cut my losses and try to make my money back elsewhere. Or there is the option of averaging down by buying even more, which might be the craziest idea.

Hold on. Lucid looks like it's got a chance to actually make a car....unlike Lordstown motors and Nikola. This is just an opinion, but I think once the first good news comes out about productions it will go up. Good luck!

#12261 2 years ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

I have a confession to make.... I've never sold a stock at a loss. Yes, I do have a small collection of "losers" in my portfolio. Luckily most of those pay decent dividends, so the likelihood they'll break even is a little better. There are a couple where I really should have cut my losses. But patience has generally paid off well for me. My biggest mistakes have been selling stocks before I should have... cutting them loose once they break even or made me a few percent, only to see them skyrocket just after that (yes, I'm talking about you AMD!).

That's ego.....in investing or trading, you're better off taking the feelings out of it. Most of my money is in indexes and long term keepers, but I do have a trading fund (about 25%), every month I make a trade or two where I see then stock move against me, so I take a small loss and move on and try to get into a better trade.

PS: has anyone seen how much Knightscope has been advertising on CNBC? This company smells like a scam....they've been teasing that they'll go public for the last 5 yrs and still nothing, meanwhile they've been getting the retail investor to buy their crummy stock with those commercials. I looked into it, they're basically a Nest security camera on a Rumba. Brilliant scam

#12267 2 years ago

Holy shit, Goldman just put an $83 price target on Apple! that's over a 33% to the down side? WTF? One hell of a bear call. If this holds water this is bad news for a lot of the tech sector.
Dudes, time to trim exposure to the NASDAQ, sucks I just bought another 45k of FB!

#12275 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I have always been told to never enter a stop with your broker
There are websites that can keep track of stops for you
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/why-your-broker-should-never-see-your-stop-loss/
https://stansberryresearch.com/investor-resources/education-center/chapter-6/the-trailing-stop-strategy
We do not recommend placing stop orders at all. The dirty NYSE traders will pile up all the stop orders and then execute them all at a horrible price. Interestingly, stocks often close higher the very same day, after the NYSE traders make a mint executing stop orders. DON'T put a stop order in the market.

This is a good tip....

#12280 2 years ago
Quoted from BrianBannon:

For some reason, Rod Hall of Goldman really doesn't seem to like Apple. He has had sell ratings on Apple a number of times over the past few years. Tipranks has him rated at 50% overall, with an average return of 2.8% per call. With numbers like that he isn't even as accurate as a weatherman. His call is the lowest of all analyst calls, average call is at $153 at the moment. Up to you of course, but you might want to follow anyone else besides GS when it comes to Apple.

Ha, yeah, his Apple calls are off the chart. Lol. I don't get it. Thanks for that.

#12281 2 years ago

The bulls and the bears are duking it out today...I hope the bulls make a come back like yesterday. I don't see a lot of conviction out there.

#12290 2 years ago
Quoted from stubborngamer:

Biden announced he might tax the wealthy as high as 43.4%.
If anyone needed more proof Biden will be bad for the stock market.

Well, as someone who will take the brunt of such tax hikes, I have to say, it isn't going to kill the market. Taxes have been getting cut for high bracket people for decades so it's high time they hiked them on the wealthy a bit....just for comparison look up cap gains rates during the Eisenhower presidency and you'll see they been getting a free ride for a long time.

PS: Nothing is set in stone....look at the run for minimum wage hike that never happened, so maybe this number is pie in the sky number and it will get negotiated down before it can pass the senate.

#12300 2 years ago
Quoted from robertmee:

Market responded pretty quickly. 300 point drop in minutes in the DOW.
Comparing the 50s stock market to now is not really going to reveal much. The 50s was almost exclusively institutional investors. A scant 4% of americans were invested in stocks. The market today is wildly different with a large number of retail investors, hedge funds, foreign investors, etc. The proposed cap gains tax will have far more reaching implications now than then.

300 points is nothing, 3000 is not even note worthy, the market is up 55% in the last 12 months. I don't see a stampede here
We've been hearing the demise of the USA under Dems for years, yet we're still here...and getting richer every year. Remember Obama care? Death panels, they will kill grandma!...Minimum wage increase will close 50% of small businesses? None of it ever came true....the same bs was said during the 50's about social security. Capital gains taxes are at 15%, you subtract costs you get to 13%....how many of you working stiffs pay 13% tax rate from your work income? Answer: None.

#12303 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

That is your Pacific Northwest bias showing. I know a bunch of millionaires in other parts of the country not happy with this.

Well....I'm sure you've heard people vote with their wallets, so I bet they'll be plenty of unhappy people about their taxes going up. I point out facts not fiction or feelings. I3% tax on capital gains is ludicrously low, as pointed out by Warren Buffet himself, who is not exactly a liberal.

#12307 2 years ago
Quoted from robertmee:

Um....not sure what prompted that political diatribe? I didn't say anything about democrats or their polices. Defensive much? I was simply pointing out the 50s market and today's market are entirely different and a cap gains increase will affect it differently

Sorry that wasn't completely directed to your post...it was about the whole Biden post

#12321 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

Sorry, I hate when people quote Buffet on Tax policy.
Billionaires are out of touch with reality.
He is free to make donations to the IRS above what is required.

Yeah, I hear ya...he's significant because he is who he is. The message remains true nevertheless

#12325 2 years ago
Quoted from Beechwood:

even drop 20% for the summer. But I believe it will be short lived (3-4 months)
Let's get that correction, inflation, supply issues over with and move on to the upside!

I agree...20% is a bit steep but 10-15% is a solid guess

#12338 2 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I'm big on Pfizer right now, it's been a slow steady climber for months. The vaccine, it's booster, their research into Covid treatments and their lead on mNRA vaccines is all super promising.

I wish I had jumped on this early on..MRNA is the future

#12388 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

I lost money on APPL, so it happens. Oh well. In the end, it all worked out just fine.
Question to the group: Normally, the adage "go away in May" has some merit due to seasonality of the stock market in certain sectors. Do we think that will be the case this year, or do we think with the reopening trade that will push things out a bit? I am torn on this and will be evaluating stocks on a case by case basis.

Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

I am thinking SPY and QQQ hold. History says yes lighten up but we are coming out of a pandemic and look around. So many folks just putting money in those also.
Momentum has been coming back but still has a hang over from February and in doing so had early investors take some profits, traders get punched in the gut, scarred off the weak Jan FOMO owners and what’s left is new long term holders who came in after the up and down, folks who bought in Jan who are underwater but will ride it out, traders who will be more careful with their calls and the original owners who bought last Summer and still well in the money.
And traders won’t be as aggressive but will trade away on momentum, so that’s a tougher call but SPY and QQQ have level floors.
Folks know even if the market drops a little bit the rest of the year and beyond are lining up to be good if not great. Folks ready to buy the dip. This will all end badly someday, so good to have in your mind but that will be years later.
Good luck DBLM and traders

It's good thesis but I'm playing it safe anyway, I'm freeing up some cash just in case, like 10%. I'm betting the market will sink a little after earnings are over and the Street's focus comes back to taxation and inflation.

#12420 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

You all are busy today...
I dumped the CCIV today. I had shares and covered calls. Gained on the shares, lost more on the calls. Overall lost $500-1000 on the position, but when I wrote this last week it was down like $6000. Just glad to be out. Sold MAC as well. Account hit an all-time high today, so it's time to reassess a bit. I'm 90+% cash. Still holding WBA that I've had for years, AI, AFRM, POSH, and that's it. POSH is up 25% from the lows it hit last Tuesday.

Right on! 90% cash....CCIV/Lucid is compelling but the space is getting crowded fast. That Cadillac Lyriq is incredible, and it starts at $58K! I also read Porsche Taycan sold just 61 cars less than 911? I can't believe it.....I tell you one thing, Scrooge might be knocking on Tesla's door come Christmas.

#12433 2 years ago
Quoted from TRAMD:

I am sure she was talking about the quarantine (which is still ridiculous) but I should have considered the source (she likes to exaggerate a bit). I wonder how they monitor that? You get in trouble if you get pulled over or get asked for your papers on the boardwalk, but can flout the rules if you get lucky? I guess I've been spoiled living in one of best states to be in during this. I can't imagine living in that kind of draconian BS environment.
And again, vaccine mandates will affect businesses negatively too, just like mask mandates did. I'll personally never go into Menards (formerly my favorite store) again as they would not allow you to enter without a mask for almost a year while all other stores were more lax. I will use any airline, cruise line, or go to any destination that doesn't require a vaccine 100% of the time over one that does. There are a lot of people who feel the same. I'm far too pro-freedom, and pro-science, to follow these kind of arbitrary, freedom-stealing, irrational fear-powered, rules meant to increase money and power for those who already have too much, under the guise of "safety".
Anyways, sorry for the only semi-relevant discussion. I'll stop talking about Covid-19 vaccines now.

#12450 2 years ago
Quoted from desertT1:

MMM reports positive news and drops. My brother worked there a few years ago and while he was there we would talk about it every quarter. Seems like most quarters they could report positively, it would drop, and then climb back and then some over the next 2 weeks. It was funny, but he was the one that owned the shares.

I've been watching all of the big names for clues...the reason MMM fell is because they left the full year's guidance the same, they also talked about raising prices due to inflationary pressures. Sooo I've been selling, I originally wanted to get to 10% in cash but I'm trying to get to 25% now. I've waiting on FB and BA. I have trimmed both, mostly BA because of what happened to GE and the Airline group after earnings.... BA may sink a little after earnings (unless there is some big news they're sitting on about 737 elect issues and 777X productions?).

#12455 2 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Anyone watching what's happening with PINS after hours? Down 10%!

It's going down a lot more than I thought...new user number was weak.

#12458 2 years ago
Quoted from rai:

.

Pins down
Google up
I’m waiting on AAPL

I'm waiting on AAPL also...they've said historically this is AAPL's weak quarter. I want an opportunity to add some if I can. When they release the new iphone it will send it 10% higher.

#12467 2 years ago

As someone said the whole upstart game is centered around adding new users and PINS just showed some weakness in that area with the last report. I don't know, I think it's dead money for a little while till they can change that narrative. FB could show some upside surprise though.

#12524 2 years ago
Quoted from thechakapakuni:

So you think it’s headed for over 40,000?

Wait a bit after the earnings week, attention will be focused on inflation and tax increases, this market will pull back, it's a guarantee. When exactly? I don't know, 1 month or 2 months? But we're talking 10-15% pullback. Just have some cash handy.

#12596 2 years ago

Me thinks there is more pain coming. This is just Nasdaq...SP500 must also participate..
I hope you all raised some cash

#12598 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

100% cash in my 4 IRAs, but my brokerage account is bleeding. Down around $10k this week so far. Bought a little PINS and AI yesterday for a swing trade, which are down about 10% each since then.

Well, then you're in a good spot bruv...no one can bat a 1000, you got dry powder ready for the bounce..you did good

#12619 2 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Yep - I'd be willing to bet against pins at this point.

Ditto.....you want to make money in the next rotation? Buy chip makers, this is a no brainer. Or roll the dice with the memes

#12643 2 years ago

Looks like this slide has conviction.. "6-1 is going down"

I bought some SLB, VIAC and LVS....I'm out of almost all of tech

#12646 2 years ago

Dow wants to green....here comes the bounce.

Re:VIAC

I bought it for because of the streaming revenue jumping 65% to $816 million, due to higher advertising and subscription revenue. Also the NFL, NCAA and the UEFA content is pretty compelling for $6 a month.

#12650 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Looks like it broke support and is going back to $11

11 sounds low, this is after all a popular Cathy Wood stock....It's a guess on my part but if it breaks 20, it will bounce off of 19. I don't think it will dwell in the teens for long.

PS: all the reopening names are getting clobbered, I'm guessing in the next few day the narrative will change, we'll hear something about the reopening boom has already been baked-in at these prices.

#12677 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

ARK seems like they are in desperation mode now. Yesterday they:
Sold 1.46 million shares of FSLY (70% off its highs, near year low)
Sold 298000 AAPL (to raise funds to buy more junk)
Sold 496000 SPCE (near yearly lows, 65%+ off its high)
Sold 995000 PINS (down 35% off its recent highs)
Sold 1.94 million shares of WKHS (almost 80% off its 52 week high)
These are the types of moves I've made in the past before blowing up my account.

Lol...I just got into it for a swing trade hopefully. I just think the tech narrative will change in a week or two and they'll all pile back in it....that's when I'll sell it. I mean look at it all...the jobs report was a big miss, and now the market on the whole is jumping. It tells me the Fed will use this as an excuse not to taper...that's why all of these techs are jumping, they're betting interest rates will stay low.

#12681 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

Jobs report was a big miss because companies can't find employees
the positions are there - nobody wants to works
just ask any ceo/business owner

And? It's the same difference to a trader, it means the struggle continues....which means no taper, at least not right away. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a modest tech rally in the next week, it may short lived but still.

#12688 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I am an investor, not a trader so I disagree - bad job report during normal times would mean companies are not hiring due to stagnant or declining business
The business is there, the demand for jobs is there - people willing to fill them is not

If you're a long term investor the last job report should be even more inconsequential to your portfolio...my post was about trading stocks and was an outlook on the current take on the overall Market.

#12709 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

The discussion about Millennials, FIRE, etc. etc is fascinating to me because it is so out of the frame of my mindset. I am by no means judging, but it is just eyeopening to see what motivates different people. I sincerely appreciate the folks sharing their experiences, and in that same spirit, will share mine. Consider it a different opinion. It is by no means right or wrong.
I am soon to be 44 and grew up hard, so that always frames my mindset. When I was finishing up college (poor kid on an academic full ride), I set some financial goals of where I wanted to be at certain ages. I did not set non-financial goals, which in hindsight, was a lack of maturity and being myopic. The good news is that I blew through my goals fairly early and then the oh-shit moment happened: What do I do next? This is actually a fairly scary moment in your life (at least it was for me) and it took me a while to get oriented. To make a long, personal epic short, my wife and I decided that we wanted more in life. Some people will misconstrue this as material in nature, but it was about having a more fulfilling life based upon our interests. We also wanted it now, in the prime of our life, as opposed to our late 60's. I wanted to set the foundation for multi-generational wealth so that my daughter's kids would not have to worry about school. This meant working even harder and taking calculated risks. Who knows what the future holds, but I know that I am doing everything possible to tip the odds even further in my favor.
As a Generation X'er, in the 90's you always heard about people selling out to the Man. Nobody wanted to be a sellout. Of course, as you get older, your perceptions change. To borrow a catchphrase from Seth Rollins, I didn't sell out; I bought in.
I see people talk about saving more, but very rarely talking about making more. This always intrigues me. My thought is as opposed to relying upon only spending a certain percentage of savings, I am going to focus on stacking it deep and piling it high. I think this is what also motivates me to be a student of the markets and to put in the effort that I do: to make that money work harder for me. I think asymmetrically, which is a military concept that is beginning to permeate some areas of business. Some interesting areas of reading there if you are interested.
Now this does not mean it is all roses for me. I will probably work longer (was going to anyway because I love what I do), and it puts more pressure on me to perform. I have learned through a lot of trial and error to separate work time from family time, but I am always on. Use whatever trite analogy that you like about golden handcuffs, gilded cages, etc that you like, but to live the lifestyle that I want and at the level that I want, I have to keep working. My profession tends to make high performers mercenary in nature, which means that I will switch jobs every few years. In the last 6 years I traded suits for jeans and sports coats for most meetings, and in non Covid times my office is my Jeep, Seat 10C, or my home office. I haven't had an official office in 10 years, but my home office is better equipped than most office spaces. Days start early and can end whenever. I have flexibility in my schedule but when things pop up, I have to be there. But in my analysis, the juice is worth the squeeze for my family and me. Everybody has to make that decision for themselves.
In the sales and performance coaching arenas, people often use the clip from the movie "Glengarry Glen Ross" as a litmus test of sorts. I am including it below. It is very NSFW from a language perspective, so consider that. The setup: people are selling timeshares and not having a lot of success. The main office sends in their top performer to give a pep talk. There have been a lot of academic and analytical papers written about this scene and how people react to it. Broadly, people fit into two categories after watching it: they are motivated beyond everything to go take the hill or they are shocked and appalled. Curious to people's reactions, particularly younger folks that probably have not seen the movie.
Again, thank you for indulging me. I wish everybody continued success.

"Put that coffee down...The coffee is for closers! First prize is a Cadillac Eldorado, anybody wants so see what the second prize is? Second prize is steak knives"
A B C
I'm a big fan of Mamet

#12713 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

And to think this was not in the original play. Alec Baldwin was an absolute force of nature in the scene. The other actors play their roles sublimely, particularly Ed Harris.

Ahh, really? I didn't know that, I remember his first big play that made it out it of Chicago, Sexual Perversity in Chicago, which was then made into a movie with Rob Lowe and Demi Moore....I then saw American Buffalo and the one about the water engine, I think it was called the Prisoner. He liked to work with Campbell Scott and Hope Davis a lot. I also read a lot of Sam Shepard's stuff too, but Mamet was much better.

That Glengarry movie resonated, I was working 2 part time jobs and going to night school when I saw it. it marked the time we lost of our innocence, the idea of working at a company till retirement thing was coming to an end. It was replaced by Boesky's mantra "Greed is Good" The whole Corporate Raiders stuff, LBO and Barbarians at the gate....even politics was changing. Newt Gingrich was coming on the scene... strange times but you know what? If you can make it through that...you can survive anything.

#12715 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Add in Chainsaw Charlie and you have a bingo for late 80’s/ early 90’s greed.

Haha, I think it was chainsaw Jack or something. you're talking about the guy who took over Sunbeam? Lol...I know him too.

PS: he was supposedly not bad....he wasn't a raider like the other guys. He was just an astute cost cutter

#12717 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Chainsaw Al. Actually, he was a horrible exec. He perpetuated massive fraud at Sunbeam and was named one of the worst CEO’s ever.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_J._Dunlap

Lol what an SOB

#12727 2 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Pltr earnings call will be...interesting.
Don’t get me wrong, big believer long term. Short term though...ouch.

Techs are still being sold off....Green on the re-opening names and energy again. They're looking for safe places to park their money. I was thinking the job report would be catalyst to stop the tech slide but the hedgies are not buying it.

#12732 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Quite the drop in TTD today. Wasn't that Iceman's second largest position after PINS? I think I'm going to make a play on it and sell a put expiring Friday.
I shorted 200 QQQ Friday, and covered today. Feels nice to get one right once in a while. Sure feels like there's a lot of downside left in QQQ, but as long as the trillion dollar market cap companies hold up, so will the index.

Nice, just think, they haven't even signaled that they will raise interest rates....which means there is another leg down coming when they do.

#12735 2 years ago
Quoted from tacshose:

My portfolio is down 7% in only what two weeks, jeez. These are days I’m glad I’ve hoarded so much in my 1.5% money market. I don’t think I could ever be 100% in the market.

It's been a nasty ride....I'm hoping next week the sun will peek out.

#12761 2 years ago

Palantir came out with good earnings a week too late though. Shopify upgraded. I keep hearing about Shopify...I might have to roll the dice a little with that

#12764 2 years ago

Here's one of the rare situations where both sides are right, the unemployment payment is definitely putting the brakes on rehiring but it also helped dole cash out to the end user, the people who will actually spend it and float the economy during a downturn...is there pork and waste? Absolutely. Which govt program doesn't? Either way, it's helping fellow Americans in time of need and that's good, is it set to expire? Yes, but with inflation do businesses have to raise wages? Yep. The cycle continues like it has since Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations

#12771 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

true,
but we can stop the gov't payouts, get people back to work and spending money they actually earn...

That's a trap for the administration, if they cut payments and the economy stalls they'll blame them. The risk of dragging this out till Sept is a much safer play, and all those businesses, restaurants and hotels are also getting free money.

#12772 2 years ago

The root of the problem is the talking heads and pundits who live for these rants and controversies....just rant and blame. This grabs headlines, clicks etc...This is the most dangerous thing plaguing the country....most times the problems are not easily solvable

-1
#12801 2 years ago
Quoted from Spyderturbo007:

No clue. I just searched Google for $20/hour dishwasher jobs and that's what came up.

There is no such job....waiters get below min wage. Do you really think they would pay a dishwasher 20 bucks? Not even in San San Francisco

#12803 2 years ago

On more important fronts, it's an fugly chart for the last week or so, but I promise it's a head fake again. In 2 weeks time we'll be back at those previous levels. I'm not talking tech...tech is done for now, not going to be back for a while but the SP 500 will bounce back. Just don't panic and hold on.

#12812 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Such a strange day. Was down 3% and ended up green for the day.

Yeah, crap...just crap. No conviction to sell or buy. The next couple of weeks is going to be like this

#12830 2 years ago

I’m bleeding even in my safe stocks. BA, WFC, XOM, MRO, SLB, MSFT, NXPI, all down big

#12838 2 years ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

At

Just wondering at what point to buy on that dip?
I guess the re-opening play is over.

Now!! If you have the cash, I spent all of mine today. I wish I had more raised...but it's a good time...go in a little at a time..this week and average your entry

#12855 2 years ago

Phew! well that was scary...lol. Today's gains made up for the bulk of my losses, thanks to the some of the share I picked up on the way down. How's everyone else doing?

#12858 2 years ago

Oil is heading lower, not sure if it's because of Colonial or other external factors...but I'm guessing it's taken the air out of the market a little, it may head lower now. But the bigger picture is the sell-off trend is broken so that's good. The next jobs report is going to be the big catalyst...if it's also weak, then i'm guessing the market will go up....till more inflation news hits the wires...lol, sorry I know, it's clear as mud.

#12860 2 years ago

One big tip: With the 737 fix that came out yesterday, and manufacturing starting again....BA is a screaming buy at these levels ($221).

#12870 2 years ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

Made some bad plays on VIAC and AMD. Hoping I see recovery tomorrow, but this is a lesson to be more stern about my stop losses.

Those are both winners, I wouldn't worry

#12873 2 years ago

I think SQ, LVS, BA, VIAC, TSM, NXPI, XOM, MSFT, MRO, MGM, DIS (DIS earnings today, so wait till tomorrow ), and all of the big banks are safe bets in the long run....stay away from Crypto, PLTR, PINS and all the other meme high flyer stuff. I

#12875 2 years ago

BA is starting to move.....

#12882 2 years ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I think SQ, LVS, BA, VIAC, TSM, NXPI, XOM, MSFT, MRO, MGM, DIS (DIS earnings today, so wait till tomorrow ), and all of the big banks are safe bets in the long run....stay away from Crypto, PLTR, PINS and all the other meme high flyer stuff. I

I told you all we'll be back in a week or two....I'm amending the buy list: SQ, LVS, BA, VIAC, TSM, NXPI, XOM, MSFT, MRO, MGM, DIS, GE

#12886 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

It's a fake out. More down side coming.

Not till inflation numbers come out with the CPI, even then if it's not as bad or within range of the shock of the last one, it won't be huge deal...this is called climbing the wall of worry.....it will still go higher but in unorderly fashion.

#12899 2 years ago

Wow, this strength is on a Friday....that's all you need to know, they're buying big on a Friday. So I guess we're going to hang here for a while till we see the CPI next month on the 10th....I hope you're all in the green....have a great weekend everyone!

#12901 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Nice green day today. Still does not make up for the shelling earlier this week but it was a step in the right direction. Going to go throw the switch to the down position and get wet. We will pick up the good fight next week. Have a good one. [quoted image]

Haha, nice life bro...lol...enjoy!

#12909 2 years ago

Went to get a haircut at my local barber shop, a young guy cutting hair with limited English was trading Crypto while he was cutting hair....this is a sign to me that Crypto has penetrated the general public, this crap will only go up from here....till it crashes. So I finally broke down and bought some today to trade.

#12915 2 years ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Extremely relevant quote/story from JFK's dad about timing his exit from the stock market before the great stock market crash of 1929. Only mentioned because of the parallels to what you just said. https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/04/15/211503/index.htm

Lol...wow~ I knew vaguely Kennedy made big part of his money during the Depression. I mean we've all heard the Rumrunners stuff but he did well in the market before and after the crash....thanks for sharing that. It's another sign this market is frothy as hell.

#12916 2 years ago
Quoted from robertmee:

Hope you didn't buy bitcoin....crashing hard

I bought Ethereum and believe it or not Doge...I know Doge is bullshit but that's what the Robin Hood crowd are trading.

#12918 2 years ago

At&T is a buy here, if the share holders are getting 70% of the new Discovery/Warner co....

PS: Discovery and Warner have a lot of debt but still...

#12921 2 years ago
Quoted from rai:

ATT has a lot of debt too. I do like ATT for the dividend and low PE but the debt is something to consider.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/telecom/nyse-t/att/news/att-nyset-has-a-somewhat-strained-balance-sheet
...AT&T had US$155.2b of debt

Yeah, this spinoff will supposedly take 43 billion off that number but still....it's a lot. I think a good portion of it is cap ex too. 5G costs a lot to build out.

#12939 2 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I don't want to string this out in this thread, but that is a lot of human test tubes for it to keep mutating. As of yesterday 33% fully vaccinated. But who knows how reliable the number are really.

Actually the number is over 50% (1st dose) in the US but don't forget to add regular immunity to that

Quoted from rai:

prior infected people have some immunity. IOW harder to get Covid a second or third time. Somewhat like a vaccination. Not sure how many millions have had the virus in the US back in November it was shown that 14% of US had antibodies to the virus. This was way before the vaccine. So I’d venture to guess 60-90 million had the virus somewhat can be added to the ‘vaccine pool’ to get our true herd immunity up closer to 50% or higher. I know we’d like to get 80%+ immunity wishing everyone would take the vaccine.
Remember immunity does not just mean vaccinated natural immunity needs to be accounted for.
I’m not sure if there has been a recent study to show what percentage have antibodies currently from both vaccine and prior infections.

I was typing the same thing..the real immunity (vaccination and immunity) numbers should be easily be around 70% by now.

#12941 2 years ago

Back to stocks.....who thinks Bitcoin is approaching buy levels?

Quoted from Zablon:

I've never seen the clarification on people who've had it since they had such a hard time figuring out who had it or not, and that antibodies didnt seem to stay in the body. Has this changed?

There is no real science for that....you'd need a test of some sort, so it's all just modeling and stats extrapolations

#12943 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Wrong thread too

Ohhh, right,right...sorry.

#12951 2 years ago

Michael Burry of The Big Short fame bet a cool half billion dollars against Tesla! I knew it, I just didn't have the balls, it's more of a cult than company. I can't fight that.

#12953 2 years ago
Quoted from sixtyfourbits:

Not to always bring up ADA, but for anyone who has some, I thought this would be a good article to share.
I'm excited for smart contracts to be here soon, but I'm even more excited for the arrival of the erc-20 converter that is coming with them.
https://iohk.io/en/blog/posts/2021/05/17/bringing-erc20-to-cardano/

Wow, thanks for that....that fee chart looks crazy. So is this Erc-20 a token like the others? or is it a convertible token medium where you can convert any other token into it?
Can you answer me in the other forum for crypto please?

edit: Ecr-20 is basically a standard...

#12956 2 years ago

I have a new take on inflation and the possible tax hike, (we can get to it in detail later) but my new thesis is that to use Dimon's adage "A tempest in a teapot" ....I think we will see a few days of serious pull back but then there will an explosion of buying to the upside, due to economic activity numbers that we and the world will put up later as the economies opens up....also inflation will have to cause the stocks to appreciate also, why not? The forward PEs will have to preserved. Anyway, last piece of musing, Crypto for better or worse is here to stay....and it will only gain in popularity, so we can either miss the train or get on. I need to do more research into this, I hate buying things I don't fully understand but I can see Bitcoin heading to 100k.

#12967 2 years ago

BA and VIAC are finally moving up. I'm also trimming one of my big winners WFC, I doubt it will ever crack the 50 dollars price, so I'm trying not to be greedy. I'm looking BABA....it seems it's down to low 200's which is a good entry point for this stock.

#12977 2 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Looks like one of, or the last, big holdover of the archegos disca/viac fiasco has finally sold all their holdings. (This would be Normura I think).
For past few weeks they were selling into strength. Every. Single. Time.
Now with them out of the way, let’s see what happens. Who knows, maybe there are more fools that let archegos load up the margin beyond reason.

Ahh, I see..cool. I hope so, it's bloated as F with debt but it's the last IP jewel left without a partner. Let's see.
On other fronts, the pundits are saying oil has room to go but I think it's done....get ready for oil to roll over. I'm selling XOM, SLB and sold off MRO this morning.

#12988 2 years ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

I'm not a crypto guy but darn... Bitcoin is down 20% overnight and Etherium is down 35% right now. I wonder what the crash in crypto will do to the stock market? I am hoping it pulls money out of crypto and back into the more speculative plays on the NASDAQ, but we shall see.

I know! I don't have enough cash in my new account to buy more. ETH is cheap....I think BTC should also come down to 30k it's still has a few thousands to go.

#12991 2 years ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Yeah... I'm debating dipping my toe in the water with "1" ETH if it dips under $2,000... We shall see.

SO freaking funny, I was preaching about crypto 2 days before the crash, thank goodness I only bought a little....lol WTF! ETH is down 50%. At least I can tell my nephew to shut the f up...he's been telling me to get on the Crypto train for a couple of years now and then I did and the crap nose dived.

#12992 2 years ago
Quoted from greenhornet:

dont count on a comeback.
this time, its for real.
"turn those machines back on"

This sell off will be short lived also.....as long as the consumers are spending no one not the Fed, not the big whales can stop this market...best they can hope for is occasional 5% to 10% pullbacks. If the consumers start cutting back then you should pay attention.

#13002 2 years ago

I don't see any buying opportunities in the stock market today, only down about 2.5%, I would consider picking up some quality names after another 2.5% pull back....I noticed tech is holding up a little better than the broader market. So we may witness a good time to go back into the tech names soon.

#13004 2 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

My commodities are even getting hammered today - Still in about 80% cash so not a huge problem right now.

Commodities are topped out, lumber has dropped 30%...so the rest will likely follow suit. All about the taking the air out of the reopening, so in other words, they're saying the reopening boom is already priced in....this is where we'll stay in the doldrums till a catalyst is introduced. That could be great data, employment, wage increase, consumer spending or bad data, inflation, tax increases and consumer confidence.

Edit: Stock tip for next week: GE

#13006 2 years ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

Why do you think this?

Multiple upgrades and big news with newly secured wind farm contracts.

#13028 2 years ago
Quoted from athenspin:

I opened a small position in AT&T a few weeks ago, happy I just started it and haven’t built it out. Picked it up as a big dividend payer, word is the dividend is being cut in half. I’ll be unloading this one.

I bought 800 shares myself, I'll dump it once we get the discovery shares but we might have to hold on till next year to get those shares allocated.

Looks like tech is back in vogue.....even oil is back. Amazing, just amazing, no rhyme or reason, lol. I guess we have to keep playing the musical chairs till the Fed makes some tapering comment then back to panic mode.

Edit: Holy crap, I just noticed BA, I hope some of you picked up some at 121 when I posted about it.

#13034 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Massive F moves today...almost thinking about dumping it.

The problem with Ford is the stock never goes anywhere....just pull up the 5 yr or 10 yr....heck go back to 1973...this is as high as it will go.

#13041 2 years ago

Glad to hear ok bro...and hopefully medicated

#13043 2 years ago
Quoted from athenspin:

BA is one I figured would take another 9 months to a year to really pop, once everyone was buying planes again. I’d still like to own this one eventually.

Look at GE

https://www.google.com/amp/s/simpleflying.com/indigo-cfm-a320neo-deal/amp/

EDIT: Dumped VIAC....looks lethargic even with the all the upgrades. I bought some crypto, not much because I still don't trust it. There is more talk happening about FED tapering, if it does come to pass this year expect a nice pullback, that's why I need to stash some cash to be able to pounce when the time comes. Problems is the market may go up another 10 percent before that happens so that's the trade off.

#13046 2 years ago

Boeing! "Dar she blows" over 240!

#13052 2 years ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

GME and AMC going nuts right now.

Any reaso

Quoted from stubborngamer:

Bought high tide again somewhat against my better judgement. I kind of think I should just dump it in oil and wait.

Not a bad idea. The inflation hit is in the post for sure. it's just this market is trying to wring out every ounce of upside before it goes negative...we're slowly getting there though. I sold a ton of stuff about 50%. I'm holding on to BA, GE, XOM, LVS, MSFT and WFC...that's it. Not enough diversity, I know but the pullback is temporary before resuming the upward trend.

#13056 2 years ago
Quoted from athenspin:

I’m holding some GE myself, probably not enough!

20 bucks or bust!!

#13058 2 years ago

Boeing is giving me love again this morning. If it finishes the week here I'm buying rounds this weekend!!

#13060 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

probably becuase they are making major advancement off all that captured alien tech

good one

#13081 2 years ago

I don't know folks, anybody else feel like we're coming into another bubble? I'm using these highs to reduce my exposure, I really think we're nearing the highs of this market. With inflation comes deflation....Cathie Wood just warned about it.

#13094 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

10 yr. treasury rate has stalled at 1.61% where it was 2 months ago. 2% is priced into this market. Good for growth stocks which is why they are recovering.
Because of record cash levels on sideline and levels of VIX i believe Tom Lee is right. "Melt up" to 4,400?
"Don't fight the Fed". Remember that? The Fed says they think the inflation is "transitory".
Cathie Wood talked about "innovation deflation". Companies that are disrupting entire industries bringing lower costs to consumers. Not "food and energy".
Should be a good June set up.
Then we see what happens with "tax and spend". The good news is that massive plan seems to be crumbling and will be more targeted.
Even liberal Jamie Dimon hammered current policy on infrastructure, taxation, immigration, healthcare and regulations and failing academics.
Have to be competitive worldwide on "taxation".
So the next "wall of worry" will be around what the next "tax and spend" package looks like. For now, plenty of tailwinds to push through the headwinds.
What will 4th quarter and 2022 look like. That's where it gets real dicey for me. Inflation? Interest rates? Taxes? And what those issues cause the Fed to do.
GL, party time!

You're a crazy mofo....but that's why we love you....don't get greedy.

#13125 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

The first bite of Apple came on Aug. 17, 2014 for about $12k. That position has remained "locked" since then.
Apple is up 396% in 5 years. So the timing wasn't perfect.
All of the other positions, via a small Roth conversion, including Shopify up 725% were purchased on 1/11/19. Maybe you remember the Fed raising rates in the 4th qtr of 2018 then reverse course, Apple missed it's numbers due to China for the first time ever that holiday season.
What a Xmas buying season that was. Never forget working on Xmas eve and the weeks after scooping up sales . It was a terrible market that 4th quarter. A sign of what's coming when the FED does have to begin raising rates in the future.
Next time opportunity knocks, be ready, Jan of 2019 after the 4th qtr selloff and April/May of 2020.
I guess it's true, 30 isn't so young?

Lol...that kid is ruined....trust me, he probably thinks making money is reeeal easy. He's in for a rude awaking.

#13127 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Lol. She pays NO attention and has no clue how good that is! She will later in life, how about the next 40+ years to compound gains tax free? Most of the young ones think life goes on forever.
If we could only go back in time and do some things over again.

I hear you, I sold Amazon at 60. I sold Google too at 150, Oh boy, funny.

#13135 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

No shit. If only!
What stocks will we be saying that 10-15 yrs from now?

Hmm, that's a hard question but I would guess companies that are dabbling in CRISPR tech could potentially be worth hundreds of billions in the future...I would also bet Crypto is going to be very profitable since it's gone mainstream.

#13140 2 years ago
Quoted from desertT1:

REITs are looking good today. My watchlist for them is green and my fun play in WPG is very green today.

This is an inflation play...I'm looking to get into MORT and VNQ waiting for a pullback

#13152 2 years ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

technicals have nothing to do with today's boost - it is from the attack on Saudi facilities

That's true, Iran nuke deal agreement will take oil down...but it's a few month's away from being announced.

#13163 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

That news is already out and won’t matter anyhow. They sell it in the black market now
Read the Goldman Sachs report from last month on why they believe Oil is going to $80 along with David Tepper and others jumping in. And the Tom Lee daily commentary I keep posting
Or just sit in cash and watch your money get eaten up by inflation!
Timing the day trade? You can’t win

I agree, short term the way is up...but once the deal gets announced it will go lower, I'm willing to bet you....

#13165 2 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

[quoted image]

I would have preferred a monkey but whatever...

#13167 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

It’s ok Kvan, I’m content continuing to make my own Mr. market $$$ on this energy trade! I don’t need or want to take yours. . The goal is we all make money here.
Gotta look at the facts, fundamentals and technicals. Can’t just make shit up! Like Oil was up today based on some attack on Saudi facilities.
“The OPEC cartel and its allies agreed Tuesday to press ahead with earlier plans to increase output by 450,000 barrels a day starting in July. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will continue to unwind its unilateral cuts of one million barrels a day that it put in place earlier this year."Demand growth is outpacing supply gains even with the agreed month-by-month OPEC+ production increases taken into account," said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of Macro Oils at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.”
Stay on top of the news. You don’t make money AFTER the fact.
IAEA not liking Iran today. I’ll bet they don’t turn into nice cooperating terrorists overnight.
AND, Dems already in big trouble for 2022. Doubt they want to be seen being friendly to Iran now after cutting the Russian pipeline sanctions and cutting back on drilling and supply at home.
"Oil prices should remain firm until it's clear whether, when and by how much OPEC+ will continue increasing quotas after July," said Mr. McNally. That "depends in part on the timing and amount of Iran's potential return to unsanctioned exports," he added.The prospect of Iranian oil flowing back into the global market dimmed Monday, when the International Atomic Energy Agency criticized Iran's lack of cooperation in explaining the agency's discovery of undeclared nuclear material at several locations in Iran since the fall of 2019.That has boosted oil prices this week, according to Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management.OPEC ministers will also watch Asia's largest economies in considering their next moves.While fresh data showed that China's manufacturing sector continued to expand in May, India's spiraling coronavirus infection rates could stymie the recent recovery in oil demand,”
I’ve done my analysis and Make my bets accordingly! It’s not based on a tingle up my leg feeling. Whoops on Iran
All that said, after watching what happened in the 80’s, the S&L crisis due to Oil collapse, no one can ever know how it all will really play out with this commodity. That’s why there are always two sides of a trade

Fair enough Doug man. As I said the short term favors your outlook, (perhaps for the next 3 months)
Oh one more sliver of good fortune for you is that there is rumor that Biden is going to cancel a lot of Alaskan oil leases so that might push prices temporarily.

#13192 2 years ago

AMC will end very badly for the Robin Hood guys....I bet it will be down 50% or more on the next down day.

#13276 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Ok, I can't sleep so will post the first part of the primer on Big Data and Analytics. In it's simplest form, you need 3 components to do anything analytical as represented by the diagram below: You need data in one to many databases (1), you need analytical tools that will access the data and do things with it (2), and you need a place to run all of this (3).
Databases: Take many forms. Prevalent databases are things like Oracle and DB2, which are great for storing backend data and doing queries. With the rise of analytics, you had the development of data stores that are tailored for these workloads. These started with Data Appliances like Netezza and Teradata, and now have systems like Snowflake, Greenplum, and others. This does not take into account Mainframe databases, which are incredibly prevalent. You also have specialized databases like GRAPH, NOSQL, and others for other types of data and functions.
Analytics: Runs a wide gamut of areas, but is generally broken down into descriptive analytics and predictive analytics. Descriptive analytics is typicaly where you are running STAT type functions, finding answers, and the like. Despite all of the buzz, most analytics are descriptive in nature! Tools here include things like SAS, SPSS (IBM) and the like. You also have your Business Intelligence tools here, which handle visualization, reporting, and light analytics. These include things like Tableau (SalesForce), Business Object (Oracle), Cognos (IBM), QLIK, etc. Predictive Analytics tools cover a wide range, but what differentiates them from descriptive is that they take inputs, run models many times, and try to predict outcomes. I will go into more detail later, but this covers tools like Palantir, C3.AI, Databricks, Data Robot, Watson, UIPath, and a whole lot more. You also have a lot of open source tools that people use here, including Python, Tensorflow, etc. Most analytics firms use combinations of these approaches based upon what is trying to be done. As you build, train, and run models, you are moving data back and forth to the Database(s).
Place to run all of this: This use to be on premise in racks or special built, refrigerator-sized appliances. With the cloud, some of this moved to the cloud (AWS, Azure, Google, etc). Based upon the work that you are doing or security requirements, moving large volumes of data to the cloud can be very expensive or prohibited. Legitmately, if you have large volumes of data it is more cost effective to send the drives to the cloud provider or get them to send an 18 wheeler to transport your data. That is where you are seeing a lot of hybrid approaches, where some data is in the cloud and some is on premise. The cloud providers also have proprietary tools, which is good if you are using all AWS for example, but is bad if you are trying to use multiple clouds and/or don't want vendor lock in. The two big cost components of running things in the cloud is the cost for running an application (say, Snowflake) plus the cost of the compute environment to run everything. iceman44, this is what your customer is talking about in trying to reduce the compute costs, because both of the components can add up fast.
Cloud is not always cheaper! In fact, it is often more expensive for analytics workloads compared to running them on bare metal. However, you can have reduced overhead, skirt organizations politics (typically, infrastructure teams are separate from the business teams, etc). Going to the cloud has a lot of facets.
Ok, this is enough for part 1 for tonight, and will set the groundwork for getting into more detail in the areas in the AM. But to give you food for thought: It is one thing to get an answer, it is completely another to operationalize an answer. This is a big stumbling area for AI/ML as we stand. We will get more into this later.
[quoted image]

Sweet Jesus man. that's one helluva write up.....thanks! So which one of these guys do we buy?

#13295 2 years ago
Quoted from jonesjb:

This aged well.

I wonder if it's worth shorting AMC now

#13299 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Tom Lee's BULLISH case for 4,400 on S&P by end of June. Energy is leading the way. Don't fight the facts.[quoted image][quoted image]

Lol..When has Tom Lee been bearish?

#13309 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

hope it does...but I am struggling to determine what exactly there is to be bullish about at this point.

Trade this market, don't sink big bucks into any new position for the long term.. Trust your instincts, this market is frothy and overpriced. We're going to get the CPI report this week...if it's like last month, the market will sell off again. In the coning months only 2 things can happen, either the market keeps rocketing forward or it will stall. If we stall the inflation is already on a giant roll ahead of us, so it can take months to tame it. By the time the FED makes a move to raise rates or taper it will too late, sort of like stagflation. Slow growth, high inflation, that combo is usually bad news for stocks. Let's hope they move sooner rather than later to slow inflation.

#13323 2 years ago
Quoted from Friengineer:

What are the disadvantages to going with an "off brand" mortgage company? I need to refinance and currently have a mortgage thru my local credit union. They are 1-1.5% higher than the online ones like quicken.

They're just fronting it, usually your mortgage is sold within 3 months to another bank/investor...so there really isn't a downside just make sure you get the rate you're quoted and no extra fees tacked on.

Also I agree Quicken sucks!

#13343 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

I will post this for posterity for the Million Dollar Man and myself being ahead of the curve. Up 22.79% in 6 days.[quoted image]

Nice trade

#13345 2 years ago

Pay attention to the part about inflation indicators and the margin debt ratios....this is a great report. I may have to move on my accounts out of Fidelity over to Schwab

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-snapshot?cmp=em-RBL

Tick tock....CPI at 8:30 AM tomorrow....if it's mild or less than the spike from last month we'll be ok for the next couple of months, if it's bad....look out!

#13354 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I got whiplash...

Same here, what the F just happened? The music plays on...so we got to keep dancing. There is dichotomy going on here, but smarter people than myself are staying invested so l won't fight the market.

#13382 2 years ago
Quoted from Monk:

I'm just about back to even with my Pinside suggested stocks, but some that I have lost on in order from worst to break even are:
FSLY: I'm not sure what to think here. I'm sticking with it for a bit. Down 25%.
PSTH: Not much good to say here other than not a lot invested in it to begin with. Down 21%
AI: Sold some off at the run up a couple weeks ago, but down 17% again
FVRR: Down 3 Percent. Not overly worried here
PLTR: Sold all at just above break even a week or so ago so I may have actually made a small profit here
PINS: Letting this one ride. I have made a slight profit.
I went into most of these with a small position knowing the risks. all of them other than PINS are below 5% of my total portfolio.
This is not to say I don't have winners as well through this thread. I looked into WWE when it was mentioned and passed, that is my mistake. I also went in on UWMC and that has worked out well so far.

Dude! I don't mean to be rude but that list is a Hail Mary pass of stock investing.

PS: If you're going to be in tech.. buy the FAAMG group, this is where most of the growth in Nasdaq is anyway.

#13386 2 years ago
Quoted from Monk:

Completely agree, that is why I don't have a lot invested in those stocks. The fact I have still made money over the year and I have those stocks shows how much I have invested in them. Taking PINS out of the equation, those stocks only amount to 15% of my total portfolio.

That's good.....I'm pretty conservative and my portfolio is up 52% as of now, down from a high of 62%. Of course this is not typical for me..I'm usually happy just keeping in line with S&P.

Document 11 (resized).jpgDocument 11 (resized).jpg
#13388 2 years ago
Quoted from Monk:

That's great, congratulations. I was talking more year to date in my previous post. Although my one year percentage is good, it is not 50%+.

Ohh, Ok, I thought you were negative on your portfolio all together. I'm glad to hear that. Hold on to PINS and PLTR for a few months (Before October) they're back in vogue so they'll go up a little more from these levels.

#13397 2 years ago
Quoted from marioparty34:

Radnor, Pennsylvania--(Newsfile Corp. - June 11, 2021) - The law firm of Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP reminds Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE: PINS) ("Pinterest") investors that a securities fraud class action lawsuit has been filed on behalf of those who purchased or acquired Pinterest securities between February 4, 2021 and April 27, 2021, inclusive (the "Class Period").
Throughout the Class Period, the defendants touted its user engagement and growth. However, the truth was revealed on April 27, 2021 when, after the market closed, Pinterest announced its first quarter 2021 financial results and reported that global monthly active users grew only 30% year-over-year to 478 million, a decline from the prior quarter's 37% year-over-year growth. Pinterest further announced that, "[i]n Q2, we expect global MAUs to grow in the mid-teens and US MAUs to be around flat on a year-over-year percentage basis."
Following this news, Pinterest's share price fell $11.25, or 14.5%, to close at $66.33 per share on April 28, 2021.
The complaint alleges that throughout the Class Period, the defendants failed to disclose to investors that: (1) user growth was already slowing; (2) as a result, Pinterest expected user engagement to slow in the second quarter of 2021; and (3) as a result of the foregoing, the defendants' positive statements about Pinterest's business, operations, and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis.

Funny... I mentioned many months ago that I didn't believe the monetization story of Pinterest

#13405 2 years ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

Anyone with Draft Kings, short report released today. These guys love to take out stocks:
https://hindenburgresearch.com/draftkings/

I'm not a fan of these type of outfits...actually I hate them but they're a check on runaway enthusiasm and valuations. The market needs them. If you check they normally do pretty good due diligence, due to nature of the alleged wrongdoings...this is not going to be easily investigated or brought to light, so I don't think it will sink the stock, but I'm definitely not buying it.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/turn-turn-turn-rotations-persist?cmp=em-RBL
PS: another good weather report on the stock market....look at the quilt. SP500 is never on the bottom half and most times resides at 5th place or higher. More proof why stock picking is NOT a long term play for the small retail guys like us.

#13422 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

My current “unrealized” positions in trading accounts. Just added CRWD, TDOC, FVRR and U on the 10 yr rate turnaround.
I’ve generated way too much trading by selling "realized" gains this year. DON’T do what I do
[quoted image]

Sooo the wizard shows his hand....you're a baller Doug. But that's a risky portfolio...too tech heavy

#13424 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Do you see OIH Kvan? . I was all tech/growth
And I said DON’T do it the way I do
If the 10 yr reverses back up and/or Powell starts taper talk I’ll be moving out of tech short term buys. Still love em long term!
And I have other non market correlated assets to balance

That's exactly right....The tapering talk will take the air out of tech. Only thing you're missing is financials...when tapering does occur banks will pop.

#13426 2 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

So…is fintech like a peanut butter cup or like cola and orange juice under tapering

That's a tech co...banks will profit off of higher rates.

#13429 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Banks HAVE been profiting off the rate move since last Nov
Energy is still the best performing sector ytd
Banks are in limbo on recent rate decline. Inevitable move up? Sure, at some point. When?

The market is always a week or two behind. I have to trust my gut....I see inflation everywhere. If Powell acknowledges the pretty obvious they will move, IMO, now is a good time to buy XLF not when they announce the hike. Either way, Tech is on a limited life span....we all need to start rotating out of no revenue, meme stuff sooner rather than later. We all need to have a balanced portfolio with true and tried names in cyclicals, industrial and inflation defensive sectors. To me at this point it's more important to protect gains rather than take risk for a little more

#13458 2 years ago

I was a crypto skeptic myself..for a long time. But this year (and last year) with Musk stepping in the fray and Dimon saying it's here to stay. I jumped in...I wish I had the guts to buy more but I'm very conservative with new tech. Forecast wise, I think it will drop in the near future before finding it's footing again..If you look at the chart it's a pretty jagged upward bias.

On other fronts, they're saying the market will inevitably pull back in late July...so that's the only thing on my radar between now and the next Fed meeting.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/quarterly-market-outlook?cmp=em-RBL

-1
#13473 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Money is flowing across all tech today while energy, financials and commodities are taking a full on ass whipping.
Another lesson once again to believe what Jay Powell says. He means what he says.
Just one day fellas . Good to have barbell. Should see it reverse or at least relax for tomorrow and quad witching.
Actually, won't start to get interesting until early July when the banks report and kick off earnings season.

Yeah, except you got it backwards, today you sell techs and buy into all the beat up sectors. Powell is going to look like a fool soon, cause he didn't act sooner.

#13479 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Sell tech? Not me.
Buy more energy? Yep!
Market makers must have seen Teamwork in there buying OIH at $218/$219!
You would have sold tech yesterday Kvan
And bought financials. That’s why I don’t fight the fed.
I don’t act on a feeling of what I think they should do.

I've been in financials for ever, heavily since middle of last year, it's been one of my best performing stocks and funds. You never sell them, you trim or add, I guess like you and tech stocks. Banks always come up with novel ways to make money....getting money for zero interest rates and passing it on to us at 2 or 3 % or charging us doc fees and mortgage application fees and selling those free money mortgages back to the Fed 6 months later and doing it all over again....if this ain't a racket I don't what is.

#13516 2 years ago

I'm buying into the close......wish me luck.

#13519 2 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

BOA has a different take on the drop in long term rates. They say we're now in the bearish flattening phase of the yield curve and it's time to buy dividend stocks and consumer staples.
[quoted image]

Yes, 20% gains are going to be hard to fathom next year. I also think, Powell has made a few mistakes in the past so he's gun shy about raising rates....actually Monetary policy is a slow, lethargic tool, it takes a while for it to go into effect, so it's amazing he's been so dovish about this. The tech trade is vogue again. These pundits change their views like people change socks, Tech is done...value is in...wait, value and commodities are out, tech is back in! It's okay if your job is trading and you can sit there and react to every move in the market but if you got a real job and a family you can't do that so inevitably you will be caught with your pants down. So what do you do? You use a macro take on the market, is the economy booming? Hell yeah! Is inflation real and here to stay? Hell yeah! is it going to affect the stocks? Hell yeah! So what do you do? You stick to your thesis....what ever your thesis is for that future environment, where the economy is some what good and inflation has to be dealt with. Are we going to give some of the gains back? You better believe it, I've been talking about taxes and inflation for 2 months....yesterday and today are the first in many more rotations coming. Eventually we'll be down 10%-15% or more when idea of rising inflation takes hold.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2021/05/14/why-the-fed-is-wrong-about-the-coming-inflation/?sh=3d9b52bf7fd0

#13528 2 years ago
Quoted from investingdad:

You know, I always thought that picture was a Klingon….

Lol....I think that's Clint Howard....Ron Howard's brother. I forget which movie.

#13532 2 years ago
Quoted from thechakapakuni:

Pretty close but not as good looking as me
[quoted image]

Lolol..Land Of The Lost...damn that's old

#13572 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

What a great run it’s been last week or so!
Tech making new highs and Energy moving again
Jay Powell once again says he’s not concerned about inflation beyond “transitory” effects.
Oh man, it pays to listen to guys like Powell and Tim Cook (Jan 2019 comments post qtr miss)
But there will always be hard heads that know better!
[quoted image][quoted image][quoted image]

Ok Doug, I get it, you like Tech, just be careful on the other side of that trade...cause it's a coming.

#13574 2 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Where do you see the big boys (Microsoft, FAANG, etc) in this future of yours? Down 10%? 30%?

Well if you use past performance those names are all winners in the long term...but you don't want to concentrate the majority of your portfolio in them. You want a balanced approach. FAAMG, Healthcare, financials, energy and industrials. In the end we're due for a correction we've got inflation and capital gains tax in the post..it doesn't take a crystal ball to know what happens to the high flyers when those 2 catalysts collide.

#13630 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

It certainly helps, buy backs and dividends, but financials will continue to underperform in the short-term due to interest rates leveling off. Don't fight the facts as they say. Like i said, if that changes, then it's game on.
JPM is up .70% thus far on the news, my favorite financial. Some tech stocks like TTD, SE, PINS etc have been rallying 5% a day. . Just saying, so that train is already way down the tracks.
My advice to people is to by brk.b and let Buffett manage your exposure to financials. He might know a thing or two although i'm sure many people would also go against that history. LOL

Yep. WFC is up 4.50 in 2 days

#13635 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

WFC was the same price it is today on June 3rd.
It was $47.90 on May 17th.
Buffett sold all of his WFC for some reason didn't he?

Yeah, I trimmed down from 1500 shares to 500 when he did that...I wish I hadn't but hen again I rode this thing up from the low 30's. They're a big player in the mortgage business...I think most analysts are missing how big that impacts their bottom line. With the RE market being on fire I think the earnings are going to be way higher than consensus.

#13639 2 years ago

I got a options alert on LVS....looks like someone bet heavily on the mid July calls. It may move back up to high 50's.

#13651 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

For all the naysayers, if you are not in tech right now you are missing out. Some of the stocks that I am in are more trades that were beaten down like FSLY, AI, and PLTR, where something like MSFT and APPL are long term holds. I can not get specific for...reasons...in some of the sectors but I am a big fan of cloud, analytics, and data plays right now. CRM and CROWD are two stocks I am also very high on.

I love tech too, don't get me wrong, but at the right time and at right price. No offense to you but this is the wrong time for some of the new comers to invest in tech, if you're into these names for a while or if they've been you're core holding then yeah by all means, but if you're thinking to buy in now....be aware, tech is at an all tine high.

#13654 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

None taken but I disagree. I have never gotten out of tech and have been adding more. Tech is going to over perform over the next few quarters.

Quoted from nwpinball:

In my retirement index funds, I moved a big chunk out of tech funds to dividend funds in February when things were rocky, but I moved that money back into tech funds about 2 weeks ago. The tech funds have vastly outperformed the dividend funds in that short time period and I'm expecting that trend to continue. My more fun day trading and growth account I'm more active in has seen the biggest growth in tech and pot stocks over the past 3 months.

Ok, I hope it works out..really, I want us to all make money. I'm buying more financials and infrastructure plays

#13689 2 years ago

LVS just popped...no news

#13715 2 years ago
Quoted from Budman:

Any stock or ETF suggestions for nickel, lithium, cobalt mining?

Global X but it's already doubled since last year. Commodities are rough, I wouldn't jump into it now, lumber just went down another 30%...so the commodity play is giving back some gains.

#13757 2 years ago

Wtf...the rotation just got started again.

#13786 2 years ago

Hmm..ugly day, uglier day for high flyers...looks like the market is beginning to shake off the irrational exuberance

#13827 2 years ago

Man, you guys are ge

Quoted from stubborngamer:

While the recent dip in oil stocks was unfortunate, I did take the opportunity to triple my position, my last buy being close to the recent low. Bring on earnings.
Oih is now my biggest holding, see more upside here than in suncor.

Read this
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/energy-sector-turmoil-what-happened-and-whats-next?cmp=em-RBL

#13828 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I think we top 40k this year. Because, nonsense and insanity.

It is insanity...not being in the market is also insanity. So you play defensively.

#13830 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I think I might need to break down and hire a financial advisor. I don't have time to post on pinside AND watch the market.

They'll just tell you to put your money in a few index funds...SP is up 45% last 12 mos

#13852 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

BDCs have done great this year and are at the top of the yield income food chain.
Gotta be careful. ARCC one of the bigger ones
Brad Thomas on Seeking Alpha is my go to guy for REITS and BDCs. The research he does is incredible

REITS Ice? Did Tom Lee finally get the memo?

#13885 2 years ago

Most of all the ETFs and Funds will experience a pullback before Nov, just play the long game. Inflation is not transitory, it's real so get ahead of the curve and play the areas where money will be flowing to....as far as tech, I would only stay in FAAMG. I still own some energy stocks but oil should've rallied now, it's summer already so unless I'm missing something...it's all priced in at this point. If you have cash wait for the pull back and then buy your favorite S&P 500 ETFs or fund.

#13935 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

My man Tommy Lee is on f ing vacation this week and thus no commentary from him! I'll be interested to see if his outlook and position has changed given the 10 yr being stuck in mud, earnings beats thus far are at 87% on the S&P 500 and Energy.
The institutional guys are betting heavy on Oil "futures" so there is a disconnect right now, if they are right then the energy stocks are lagging WAY behind. Patience, got to keep telling myself on this energy play.
What's the potential bear case? Valuations are high and leverage is at peak levels, usually not a good combination. The 10 yr is indicating a soft economy and that Powell is right.
Could we end up with "Stagflation" in 2022 or 2023? Combine that with any STUPID tax hikes into this recovery, along with inflation and that's exactly where we might go.

Ahhem....(cough) I remember someone else saying these same things

#13936 2 years ago
Quoted from KornFreak28:

Does this mean you are holding the Oct calls after earnings?

Apple's earnings are going to be good again, the stock may not go up though....(look at last earnings) depends on what they have in the development pipe, if there is nothing exciting coming they will take profits. You can still make a few bucks between now and the conf call.

#13964 2 years ago
Quoted from edward472:

I have such a hard time buying more Apple because my basis is so low, but I also am still holding AT&T. So there's

Ugh. Wtf are you even saying Kvan! Come on brother
What they have in the pipeline? Lol. Ok. That’s an unbelievable statement on its face
If it makes you feel better, I’m down a net of about $600k despite my Apple calls in the last week, from an all time high. Patience. Watch and learn
To say that is mind boggling on your part. Let’s go!
While the 10 yr drops again

I was replying to the Apple calls....options are not long term right? So I was cautioning him about being absolute regarding the bounce of Apple after earnings....didn't happen last time despite a huge quarter. Can it go up this time, yeah maybe, it's still risky as hell. Again we're talking trades and not long term portfolio positioning. Same with AMZN, I think they'll have a blow out too...meanwhile MRNA and MSFT are going up everyday.

#13971 2 years ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

Damn, this market is killing me the last 2 weeks or so. Guessing we are gonna have the covid drop again. 2nd chance at buying in low?

It's not going that low...it will bounce next week. Although modestly. As long as the consumer is buying and the Fed is in QE mode this market will go up....it won't be even cross the board obviously. Big blue chips names will benefit, the rest not so much.

#13988 2 years ago
Quoted from aaron6920:

Guys, just wondering your thoughts on the financial sector. I was listening to a podcast this week and they were very pro the long term outlook of the big bank financial sector. Just curious on an ETF like VFH or an individual like GS.

VFH and XLF are both great funds, they yield is almost 2% so think of it as defensive play not a growth play. You can park your money there to make a few percent while the market gyrates...Goldman is a pretty great stock, but if you're thinking of getting into GS or MS now it may be the wrong time...those individual stocks have gone up quite a lot since last year. With that said there is good chance GS, MS and JPM will go up if the interest rates gets hiked, if you want to be exposed to the financials in stock form rather than an ETF those 3 are great investments.

#14001 2 years ago

This is buy time....if you got cash on the side, this is a good entry. GL!

#14029 2 years ago
Quoted from TRAMD:

I've been 25% cash for a while waiting for a day like this. I'm doing some buying today.
What holdings do people have that are down that I could look into?

MSFT, FB, JPM and Boeing...only buy quality stuff because you never know what's around the corner

#14030 2 years ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Don’t mind if I do. For anyone that wants an opinion other than Tom Lee’s, I found this from Yale Med: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid
TLDR: Tom Lee is uninformed.
And I’m misinformed, because I bought OIH a while back. Not too much, and in a non-taxable account, so I guess I’ll hold for now.

Problem with guy is he's a perma bull..never sees danger till he's standing in it's shadow. I've been saying stuff like stay away from the meme and bad tech, reduce energy exposure, buy financial precisely for these reasons today....market has been frothy for a long time...this is just a healthy pull back. Good luck!

#14038 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

He's been a "perma bull" because we have been in a "PERMA BULL MARKET". Just total nonsense. Never see danger "Until he's standing in it". Such as what case for example? Lol. He's just one analyst.
You've been right 45 times over the last 3 mini corrections. It's coming, it's coming, run and hide!
Good Luck!

Yep..Just one analyst you keep quoting and posting. I've said before half the battle is locking in the gains you've made....how's it looking this week? "Nonsense" is the constant pump of that one analyst you post...you should follow more than one side of the story.
Ps: here's another tip, we have NOT been In permanent bull cycle...ther 6Trilion of free money thats been pumped into system, this is what's been floating this market. when it runs out so will the bull market

-1
#14042 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Buy what? Financials? Why is it a good entry?
Let's do us all a favor. You and i both put each on "ignore". Problem solved.

Wtf? You're getting mad at me? Lol..for what defending myself? Are you drinking as you type this? Maybe these texts are not translating well. I don't want put you on ignore silly..lighten up Doug, I was cracking at Tom Lee.
But seriously this swing is street's way to shake the tree, I think they have it in for the Robin Hood crowd, they know a lot of these guys are on margin...so they're shaking them out. Or maybe its the Delta....but why? The vaccine is still pretty effective against it...the numbers are no where near last year, so I'm thinking this is an institutional shake down

#14043 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Buy what? Financials? Why is it a good entry?
Let's do us all a favor. You and i both put each on "ignore". Problem solved.

Are you serious with that question? Pick a stock any stock...it will go up from here. The fed is still buying, the consumers have not lost confidence. There is pent up demand... trillion dollars infrastructure spending is coming. Don't be silly.

#14046 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

6T or not, we have had a bull. You ride that for all it is worth.
I see so many people here post that they are % invested or waiting for some sign. What is that sign? If you have not been in the market this past year and/ or have not been agile in your investing, you have missed out on one heck of a run.
Scared money don’t make money!

Yes, but don't be simplistic about it, you can't distill what millions of investors and hedge funds and institutions are doing down to a saying...you can be in the market and make money without getting caught with one's pants around the ankle. The market has been going sideways for months...the crypto market was already signaling pull back. Good thing is just a pull back and not the beginning of a bear market. Got cash...buy something!

#14051 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I would agree with DBLM and Ice on this one. The last 8-10 months have been pretty easy money. I just don't want to lose it all in the next 3 months

Well, that would have been a good endorsement if you hadn't added that last part...cause that's the crux of the whole discussion..we've all made money, I'm trying to keep it.

#14054 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Well, last time around, it was pretty obvious what was going to happen and I bailed. This time...I have no idea what is going to happen. Lots of people are still very bullish. Read the article I posted above talking about millenials chomping at the bit to buy every dip the rest of the year. .

I hear ya...one last piece for the future, be careful in 2022, first the tapering, then the interest rate hike.due to inflation and possible stagflation, after that they will talk about the debt and the debt ceiling, which may cause govt shutdown, if you see any sign of that run...the bear market may finally show it's ugly head then..forget what you read here. I've seen this movie before

#14058 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Plenty of ways to make money in a bear market. Just requires having a plan, which most people don’t.

That's true,.let's hope this one has a little more gas in the tank some can have a soft landing.

#14082 2 years ago

What a day...that was weird to say the least, now we wait for the talking heads to deceminate what it all means.. I'm guessing there is more volitality ahead before we get through this earnings season. For me my whole risk tolerance has changed now.

#14092 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Why has it changed for you Kvan?

Well Ice, at this point like robertmee said it’s not about fundamentals now, this is psychology taking over, namely fear. We all have different risk tolerances, including myself. I can’t risk the bulk of my portfolio on the whims of this market, I’d feel a lot better if I had a little less on the line till the Volatility dies down.

#14127 2 years ago

I want to play tech with an defensive stance, Pharma is looking great to me. Moderna is killing it, Eli Lilly is trending up too, lot's of new drugs in the pipeline. If you're looking for a gamble there is Alzheimer drug by Cassava Sciences SAVA that has shown to be even more effective than Biogen's drug...if you remember Biogen doubled on the news of the approval, I bought a small position at 88...if the next round of testing shows efficacy this thing will blow up.

#14130 2 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

The Pfizer shares I bought in March are up 17% if you are looking for a pretty safe Pharma buy. Nasdaq and Tech killing it right now, I'm glad I wasn't gun shy and diving back in.

I agree, I did buy Pizer a month ago, I should say I traded it. I'm looking to get back in and staying in...we're in a new frontier of sorts when it comes to these new drugs, it's like the dam finally broke and there is a whole slew of new advanced drugs are coming in the market, like the messenger RNA and CRISPR etc..

Quoted from Zablon:

didn't one of them just get determined to be a bunch of BS?

The talk was about Biogen actually, they're charging 56k a yr for that drug and it barely does anything, the Cassava one was twice as effective clearing the neural pathways in the study, there is a third drug by yet another company that's even more effective but it's still in preliminary round.

#14158 2 years ago

Big Tech earnings on the agenda today. Going higher or sell the news? Hmm... maybe the latter. Casinos are on sale here, easy 15% or more higher before the end of the year. Also put Uber on your radar, Delta variant may make it a cheap bet.

#14167 2 years ago
Quoted from Oaken:

My goodness those AAPL earnings.

The stock is down after hours, as is MS and SB....all crazy good numbers but they're called peak earnings.

#14175 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

No. They are not called “peak” earnings. Sometimes you just totally pull shit out of your ass Kvan. Lol
Now, I will sell the other half of my October calls and buy calls going out at least a year
Apple is making higher highs and higher lows.
See you at $200+. When? 12-18 months?

Lol....I see you man. Don't tell me you held on thorough earnings? Ah dude, this thing is heading lower! Lol...don't give up. Buy some UPS and FedEx..Also Google is the tiger to own from here on. Youtube ads up 84%..crazy.

Ps: IIRC you called me crazy when I said it may go down after earnings about a month ago.

#14176 2 years ago

Boeing! Mr. Calhoun got a stay of his execution. This could be the start of an uptrend right here. This stock should've been 300 bucks 2 months ago.

#14181 2 years ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Is it common thought now to sell before the earnings announcement, even if you know it will be good news, because stocks now tend to trend down regardless? It always makes sense to me if it's going to be a bad or expected earnings statement, but I still can't quite wrap my head around it being a good strategy regardless of the outcome. I held my Apple, and I have Pfizer and Paypal releasing earnings today, both should also have great news.

It's neither common nor uncommon, it's just risky...normally you buy something in anticipation of a good quarter or news and then you cash out and move to other opportunities but some stocks such as apple are portfolio anchors so you can trade it but ultimately you should keep it as a core holding. This quarter they gave us heads up they will have chip shortages that's enough for a lot of traders to move out and put the money to work elsewhere. So I don't have a crystal ball but it's logical it will move down in the near future

Quoted from iceman44:

LOL. This "thing" is heading to $200+. And i've made so muc?h money on Apple it's ridiculous! . More to come
BTW, IIRC, Apple went down to $123 on June 3rd. When we loaded the boat again. $$$$$$. That's a 17.8% gain on the stock in about 50 days player. Not to mention the options above.
Sold the rest of my Oct. Calls and moved into March 2022 Apple calls. (Made 250% roughly)
Picked up 150 up some Nov 19 280 Facebook calls and 2700 shares of FB into earnings.
GL Big ballers . Dropping the mic now.

Quoted from iceman44:

LOL. This "thing" is heading to $200+. And i've made so much money on Apple it's ridiculous! . More to come
BTW, IIRC, Apple went down to $123 on June 3rd. When we loaded the boat again. $$$$$$. That's a 17.8% gain on the stock in about 50 days player. Not to mention the options above.
Sold the rest of my Oct. Calls and moved into March 2022 Apple calls. (Made 250% roughly)
Picked up 150 up some Nov 19 280 Facebook calls and 2700 shares of FB into earnings.
GL Big ballers . Dropping the mic now.

Good luck ice bro...I'm buying some FB too

#14190 2 years ago

Crap...FB is taking it on the chin. They're warning about, wait for it.....peak earnings! They're saying growth will be slowing in the future.

PS: Alibaba and Didi looked like buys to me but I found this :

The swift crackdown follows the meteoric growth of China’s biggest tech companies and leaders who don’t always tow the party line, like Alibaba’s Jack Ma. Moreover, big tech in China has also been blamed for the rising wealth inequality there.

The move to rein in Chinese tech giants also comes after the U.S. passed a law that bars foreign companies from trading on U.S. exchanges unless they surrender to audits. That law, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,” could stoke the Chinese government’s fears that data on its citizens could end up in the hands of its biggest political rival.

So they're worried in part about data being mined by the US. I don't think they will destroy their own private companies but they might make them voluntarily delist themselves. I have no idea what the impact to the shares will be..but there are plenty of companies that are not listed here and still do well. LG batteries for example.

#14192 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

LG is Korean...

Ha, yeah..you actually thought I didn't know that , it's not listed here but its one the largest EV battery maker
LG Chem Ltd

#14198 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Never know with you brother With

screw it. Let it burn.

Slow and steady wins the race. Asset allocation is key in uncertain times

I'll put up my annual return against yours whenever you want.

#14204 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Not a competition at all. I have zero to prove to some rando talking stocks on a pinball forum. I am quite happy with my various strategies and the associated returns on them. As always, I continue to wish everybody good luck.

Thanks~ I was coming back at you because of your " I don't know about you brother" comment. Let's not stifle opposing views on here, it's healthy to have opposing views especially in stocks, someone might know something that can he helpful. When we get complacent we can lose our shirt. Different strategies and different commentaries are good and should be welcomed.

#14225 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Down is not the word for PINS....absolutely tanked. I was up, now down 14% on it....f'ng crazy.
So what is the over/under on Ice's mood tomorrow?

Time to dump it and move on to another stock.

-8
#14252 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Just pm me buddy. I’ll be around.
Like Matt said, no need to deal with the ignorant randos in that thread. . That’s the downside.

You're an idiot

#14277 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

Damn, people have a serious case of sand in their neither regions. Everybody take a deep breath and go back to their corners. Personal attacks are not needed.

Dude, you're a bit passive aggressive...you act all civil but you slip in attacks as well.

Quoted from ImNotNorm:

So many emotional keyboard quarterbacks.

Yeah, who are you referring to? If anyone is emotional it's the guys who can't take a dissenting POV. It's a discussion board man, I have my ideas you have yours, everyone should feel free to say what they think.

Either way, being a forum we should man up and take the good with the bad.

#14278 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Yet, every other Ice post is a personal attack on someone, not just in this thread but all of them....make up your mind. People need to quit riding his dick. He's just not mature enough to receive the same shit he gives.

You know, it's all good man, he's just another guy on here. This thread is about investing right? We can share information and tips or not. I say let's share info. If you think I'm wrong tell me why you think so. Maybe I'll see it your way, maybe I'll come back and point out fallacies in your statement...who knows. I think we can all agree on the golden rule: Don't attack others who have a different outlook on the market.

#14298 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Who's attacking others who have different outlooks on the market? I mean other than what Ice does regularly in here? I was calling out why he was whining about leaving which wasn't about the market. He didn't get moderated because of his stock picks. People seem to have glossed over that. For the record, I never report people. I am not fond of the back room bs, nor his. There are plenty of other people out there (not on this site) that you can get financial advice from that aren't nearly as bi polar and thin skinned. The only person who gets upset and lashes out and calls everyone who disagrees with him 'dummies' (and we all know that's the word because he's been modded so much for the personal attacks) and takes his ball home when people disagree with him and call him on his bs is Ice. And yet..so many here still try and kiss his ass. It's...disturbing.
and for the record, the drama that someone mentioned, almost always starts with something Ice says...

Sorry I wasn't clear, I wasn't saying you were, I was just talking hypothetically about it. By the way I don't like the fact that you were attacked for your view indirectly, also if someone reported him, oh well. I don't care...there are rules of the road, even here. If someone attacks me for no good reason I hit back.

#14341 2 years ago
Quoted from ImNotNorm:

Another thread ruined by the online crusaders.

No, it got ruined by political messaging and personal attacks.

#14343 2 years ago
Quoted from ImNotNorm:

You got that right. Enjoy your thread folks.

Pffft..that was about him leaving the forum over some "Rando" which is funny because we're all Randos here to one another...I also love the other guy's comment that he's not going to listen to some random guy on a pinball forum? Then why post tips and ideas here if it's going to be dismissed. No real rhyme or reason for this bullshit just rhetoric.

#14352 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

No, I called you a Rando when you tried to make this a dick measuring contest based upon you misinterpreting a comment in response to a comment posted about Chinese companies and then listed a Korean company. You have pathetically tried and failed to come after me a few times the past day. I have nothing to prove to you.
I am sorry that I have occupied too much of your brain space the past few days. Obviously, you have been thinking a lot about me while I have not paid you a second thought. That is not right for me to impact your life so much. I am going to go focus on living my awesome life and making money, so I bid all of your adieu.
I wish all of you continued success.

Laughable...thanks for the peace offering
-Rando

#14372 2 years ago

I subscribe to a few newsletters myself, here's an excerpt from the august edition that came out on Friday, they reman bullish for now

As per Tom Essaye (the Sevens Report), there are four Pillars that underline the economic and stock rally:

Pillar 1: Historic Fed Accommodation : Remains In Place with a caveat - a tapering of QE will likely be announced in late August beginning December; signifying erosion from March, but its pace will be slow and supportive of asset prices.

Pillar 2: Historic Fed Stimulus : Remains Intact - stimulus money is still being spent but the outlook for the $1Trillion infrastructure bill (which in essence is additional stimulus with no tax hikes) is at risk in Congress in the face of Republican opposition. Even without the bill, fiscal stimulus and policy still supports the markets.

Pillar 3: Vaccine Optimism : Erosion - peaking inoculation rates leading to lower penetration than required to ensure widespread immunity, coupled with the spread of the Delta variant and accompanying mask mandates have somewhat eroded this optimism. In the short term we’ve lost momentum on the “re-opening” trade, but unless something changes with the virus, this should be temporary.

Pillar 4: Economic Recovery : Remains Intact - although the intensity of the recovery peaked in Q2, it remains intact and intense on an absolute basis. Economic data remains strong as indicators like earnings results and consumer financial health also remain solid.
Additionally, the headlines of the last few weeks put inflationary fears - so prevalent at the beginning of July somewhat to rest as indicators of inflation seem to be just temporary.
While certain of these pillars have seen erosion, until one is destroyed, we take the view that any corrections are just a normal and healthy part of the market. We also think it is impossible to “time” these corrections, and because we are investors for the long term, we do not panic when faced with a month-over-month market decline. We at EZTracker believe that although markets took a minor breather due to Delta, the overall recovery is still in order and we remain invested and focused on the long term.

#14388 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

Did anyone see why they did this? I didn't really see anything about it. Seems odd to set your price that much higher since this is generally reserved for stocks that are on the verge of being delisted. I'm assuming there was some sort of strategy behind it (like making it look 'better' and more desirable than Ford?)

Culp the CEO wants to make his stock price in line with GE's peers like Honeywell and 3M...but personally I think there might be another reason, I think he wants to hike the dividend in the near future to match the others. Less float can also help stability.

#14393 2 years ago

Las Vegas Sands is too cheap to pass up below 40....this was around 58 just a couple of months ago...I also took a gamble with BABA. The news briefs indicated Chinese govt policy was toned down last week.

#14397 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I would rather be in MGM than LVS

Yes, better company with the online gambling. I'm going to pick up some of that too.

#14403 2 years ago

Wow, crazy it's down 50% from the march highs....is it taking a hit due to Covid or is it something else?

#14419 2 years ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

anybody else in OPRX

Yeah...nice run. That's a great sector...did you see MRNA stock too? It's like a one way graph.

#14434 2 years ago

Looks like the big boys are going to rotate out of tech again after the strong job's report this morning. Banks are up for the same reason.

#14450 2 years ago
Quoted from ypurchn:

VOO is way to into stocks for what I’m looking for. Not looking for +20% with a possible -50%. Looking for circa 2000 CDs that were paying 3-5% basically guaranteed
Another way to frame the ? Is how are people 60+ keeping up without risking a lot in stocks since bonds basically suck these days.

Then try a Bond Fund: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund — VBTLX, 5 yr return average is 3.5% or Fidelity Total Bond Fund — FTBFX 5 yr average is about 5.2%....inflation risk plays a big role in which bond fund you should invest in, a good way is a total bond index, bond that have a lot of govt bonds tend not to do well in rising inflation cycles.

#14510 2 years ago

I sold MRNA at 470 yesterday and it went up another 20 bucks, I can't believe this thing is up 93% in a little over one month. I missed a monster ride (not enough shares) but still the best trade in the last couple of months.

Weekly trade update: Aug and Sept are normally the weakest month for the SP500 but this Aug is defying those odds.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/active-trader-market-outlook

#14559 2 years ago
Quoted from MrBally:

At 45, I would have clocked out with $3M, which I did not have then. If I were you, I'd sell the paid-4 house and take some of the excess and buy a nice place with a view unless you are very happy in Ohio.
I know I will not miss the snow, ice and severe storm threats ever again. 100,000 are without power after a rash of storms, including my old house, where I used to live in the Detroit area. Screw that.

I totally agree...the whole idea is to get the hell out of the rat race to have the time to burn through that money...I'm slowly learning there is no magic number, the goal post is forever moving....I'll never be at ease with it, sometimes you just have to override your brain.

PS: reminds of a short story I read as a student by Leo Tolstoy it's called "How much land does a man need" look it up it's a good short read.

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