(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#16491 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

This is the story of most of my tech stocks. Crazy how fast everything dropped. To the point I'd rather watch them go bankrupt than take the loss.

The tech washout has been harsher than I thought but not surprised it happened. When everyone is telling you how much they are making and valuations stop mattering its got to be close to the top.

Interest rates are the main culprit though. We are moving faster than anyone probably thought. Good news is none of the big tech firms are going broke so hang on. Things will look better in a few months.

#16493 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

I traded for the first time when I was fresh out of college in 1999, so I've been through the Dot com bubble. This is very similar to the action in 2000 for tech stocks. Problem is a lot of the stocks that don't make money, that are already 80%+ off their highs, are still wildly overvalued. The UI / metaverse plays look like they're still 10 years from being profitable if they survive that long. I own a few, like U and PATH, and don't have a clue how they make money or frankly what some of them even do. Thankfully I only own them 10-20% above their current levels, not 5x where they are now like their highs were.

Not too bad. Nice. I exited all the no-profit stocks a couple of months ago. No profits for years is crazy in a rising rate environment. Shifted to <now> low PE large caps like GOOG, META etc. These are likely to recover first when the tech market comes back into favor.

Best move I made was to buy in big into oil and gas last year - that has offset a lot of the tech losses.

#16497 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

I recommended Exxon back in 2019 I think and took some heat for it here. I bought it all the way down from 70 to 30. My mistake was selling it around 65 on the way back up, but that was pre-war. Couldn’t have predicted that spike.

Just a bit early - who would have predicted a global pandemic? LOL

Quoted from kvan99:

Meta (+19%) and Paypal (+12%) have been Frankensteined back to life. It's either feast or famine with these two.
Bottom fished today...picked up ARKK and RBLX, I just couldn't help myself, it's just for a trade.

Names are technically way over sold - good trade, I agree.

#16502 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Damn, AMZN down 10%....weird, I think the market is misinterpreting the earnings, they lost $3.8 billion, but they took a hit due to the ownership of Rivian stock, which is down $7.6 billion, that's with higher labor and supply chain issues. Most of the revenue is now coming from AWS and that growth was stellar, up 36% yoy. I'm confused.

Wasn't so much the quarter as it was the guidance which was bad. Shrinking margins, a slowing economy and a premium p/e to retail is a bad mix. I can see this stock drifting lower.

Better to be in MSFT, GOOG and AAPL if you want to have some tech.

#16505 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

This is the lowest PE for Amazon ever, it was 80 during the Covid crash and PE 240 five years ago. Margins aren’t comparable to MSFT or Apple because of the super low margin on retail sales. I think AWS is a world unto itself. AWS alone would probably be a trillion dollar company.

Yup all true. Tech is out of favor though and until it comes back AMZN may drift regardless.

I'd still rather own MSFT and GOOG for now.

#16513 1 year ago
Quoted from ZenTron:

Picked up a share of AMZN under $2500 today, it may go down more but I'm content and plan to keep it at least a year.

I think AMZN will get rerated from tech to retail. If that happens there is definitely more downside as it still trades at a significant premium to WMT and HD.

#16516 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

That's crazy, Amazon is a technology company, they are designing CPU chips for crying out loud, AWS accounts for 62% of the companies profits.

You are right but the vast majority of revenue comes from online sales.

They should split the two side of this company up but I doubt that will happen anytime soon, especially with the market as it is.

#16531 1 year ago
Quoted from Kneissl:

Anyone know some safe-ish places to put money that aren’t loser deals with inflation as it is?
This seems like a decent spot, 10k limit but it’s something that’s at least somewhere around inflation
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm

No safety right now. Stick it in money market until equity market flattens out.

Bonds are not the safe place yet. You could probably lock in something safe in the second half.

#16536 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Yes, however, if you zoom out, they spent a lot of money during the pandemic, they invested heavily in warehousing and manpower to meet demand. Amazon warehouses are very expensive...full of robots and wired to the gills. Not to mention supply chain issues and high labor costs, but they still managed to put up some good numbers. I think they've obviously used this quarter to temper or reset future expectations. CEO said that for the first time they will turn focus to costs (I know, crazy to hear that) instead of other metrics. Translation = they will be laying ppl off after Prime Day (just my guess).
From WAPO:
CEO Andy Jassy referred to the war and the pandemic as bringing “unusual growth and challenges” in a statement. He also said the company, which has been expanding its warehouses significantly in the past two years, will now focus on boosting productivity and “cost efficiencies.”
Amazon executives said the company expanded its warehouses and workers there so much that they now have too much space and are overstaffed, something the company will work to straighten out. CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with media that the company had to make decisions about warehouse space more than a year in advance and wouldn’t necessarily change what it did.
Still, as online pandemic shopping growth is waning, the company has ended up with too much. OIsavsky insisted demand “remains strong” and customer numbers look good.

All true - they will grow into that space and too be fair, it's tough to anticipate a pandemic no one had ever seen before.

More worrisome is global inflation and for Amazon, product price pressures, labor costs and delivery costs. I am out of the stock for now, too many variables. Google is cheaper and more predictable in my opinion so I shifted more there for now.

#16538 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

The thing is Amazon is in a better place than most other retailers simply due to their size and use case. People still continue to flock to Amazon. Sure they saw tons of growth the last 2 years like every one else, but like everyone else they will see the downsizing after as well..but they are still in one of the best positions comparatively (in that area).

It's not size, it's valuation. As a retail stock it's extremely expensive. It's not a just a retail stock but that premium valuation is still likely to come down.

Amazon forward P/E 49

Walmart forward P/E 23

Target forward P/E 16

#16545 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Yeah, also I don't think the cloud business is even taken into consideration in terms of overall value. Let's see what the split does for the stock.

Split will definitely give better access to the stock to smaller retail buyers

#16548 1 year ago
Quoted from KornFreak28:

When is that coming?

20-for-1 stock split on or around June 3

#16556 1 year ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

What I can't find is the registration date.
Ie, the last day to buy in to get split.
So. Is that June 3rd?
THANKS for the help.

Quoted from KornFreak28:

I also need info on this. Want to buy Amazon but not sure if it’s even beneficial to wait until the split?
What registration date? Do you need to register in order to buy in on the split?

Just need to buy the shares on or before June 3.

Don't expect this alone to move the shares in a significant way though

#16565 1 year ago
Quoted from Beechwood:

I bought Alphabet knowing the 20-1 split is happening in July. Price was low, they have great cash flow, and splits historically outperform the S&P by 16% one year after split.

Alphabet over Amazon all day. Supply chain and increasing costs are going to continue battering Amazon IMO.

#16579 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

I live right near Disney World and the parks are always packed as far as I can see.

Market is forward looking and more focused on other Disney divisions like Disney+ (given the drops at Netflix).

That said - stock is a buy down here somewhere.

#16584 1 year ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

Everything is on SALE!
Buying opportunities abound.

Long term it will all be ok. If you have cash now - wait. Bear market will not run away from you.

#16590 1 year ago
Quoted from jackd104:

What would you invest in the present market?

Large cap tech with low positive earnings multiples.

#16597 1 year ago
Quoted from DropGems:

Markets def broken but we’re rallying tomm off any good cpi data. Bet.

For sure. If it's a hot number we are screwed though.

#16621 1 year ago

Looks like another rough day ahead.

#16628 1 year ago
Quoted from KornFreak28:

Big bounce right now! Are we done going lower? What do you guys think?

Due for a bounce - use it to sell any crap you have left

#16633 1 year ago
Quoted from KornFreak28:

Is the sell off finally over?

Maybe, certainly felt like it yesterday. 3800 on the S&P was support. Panic selling was everywhere mid-day.

Definitely due for a bounce if nothing else. If you are buying, just slowly pick away over time. No guarantees.

#16658 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

Inflation continues to soar, people's spending habits haven't changed, and nobody seems to be scared. That all adds up to the fact the Fed hasn't tightened nearly enough yet.

This is the big worry. That and a lot of inflation has not been caused in the usual domestic way but by supply issues (global pandemic interruptions, shipping and conflict) .

#16661 1 year ago
Quoted from Methos:

In other words, much of it is self inflicted and will lead to a loss decade as pundits are now calling it.

So far yes - higher inflation in the U.S. is partly self inflicted. The COVID helicopter money drops kept shoppers shopping.

I think higher energy and commodity prices will keep inflation high. Retailer earnings show Walmart and Target have not even passed on a lot of cost increases to consumers yet.

#16664 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

I’m shocked that this government overreach ended up creating a bigger problem than it solved. Giving those in need sustenance is one thing. Everyone knew that it was excessive on one hand, but we enjoyed the sugar high at the time. To me the most egregious policy that wasn’t handouts to businesses was the $300/week extra from the feds for unemployment even if your normal unemployment was a tiny fraction of that.

Most western countries did the same thing. It was excessive for sure. Something needed to be done but people were making more money not working during Covid than they did before the pandemic. There are other factors now though- China zero covid policy is insane and causing more supply chain issues. Surging oil / commodity prices now stem from underinvestment during the pandemic and before.

I suspect only a global recession will dampen this inflation.

#16673 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

When socialism is constantly bailing out capitalism, you never really had capitalism to begin with.

There is no pure capitalism anywhere. Don't know there every was.

Quoted from WeirPinball:

Listened to earnings from Walmart, Lowes and Home Depot - strong consumer spending, but they are eating some of the increased costs for supply and shipping so hurting earnings. We think inflation is at x% but it is really more based on this info. Not good.

Yup. More inflation to come is what that means. Your cart at Walmart is going higher!

#16678 1 year ago

Liking the big down this morning in the futures - look for a bounce later in the day

#16681 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

The chit-chat on different forums about being oversold has started.....Tech is trending higher, RBLX, AMZN, ARKK, AMD, MSFT all up....need to see the inflation to trend lower for it to hold. If it doesn't the bear trap continues.

I agree.

I shifted all my tech to high quality low P/E for now.

Still overweight energy.

#16686 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Be careful with Cramer - as much as he thinks he is right, he is usually wrong. Bottom line is we have never been here with so much govt debt and huge balance sheet and super high inflation. As one that lost about 85% during the dot com bust, tread carefully

Yup.

Cramer can't know everything and is often wrong. I value his opinion though, but like with anyone take it all with a grain of salt.

#16700 1 year ago
Quoted from DropGems:

I’m with you. Mild recession, bouncy 8-12 months. Nothing catastrophic. Another 10% down worst case.

I agree. It's probably coming.

Bear market rally coming soon also, good time to dump a few big losers.

#16709 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Nice rally today - too bad I don't trust the upside yet.

Nope - we are due for some upside but too early to go all in.

Definitely Nibble.

I'm sticking with energy also. New again highs today!

#16714 1 year ago

Yep normal hours

#16722 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

I think a lot of the juice has been squeezed from the energy trade. I prefer to buy the big ones when the dividend yield is north of 5%. Take Chevron for example. It's historical low dividend yield was like 2.4% and it's barely 3% now. Their all time high stock price was about $135 until February this year. Now it's $178. It has gone parabolical this year. It might go higher still. It probably will. But it will return to its historical range soon enough. Maybe a year or two from now. It takes a long time for the energy market to go from oversupplied to undersupplied and vice versa, but it always happens.

Oil and gas is in a multi-year bull market.

Politics aside, the growth in energy consumption will not peek for 10-15 years and global supply has not kept up, especially after the big covid price crash.

Nothing goes straight up but oil and gas dips should be bought. Expect energy out performance for several years IMO.

1 week later
#16725 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Schizo market....confusing me, all technical sign indicate this rally is real, good volume, all segment participation yet the Fed hasn't done or said anything that might invite this positive turn, inflation hasn't cracked yet, we're still in QT, gas prices are still elevated. The only thing I can think of is that the street knows something we don't...perhaps info regarding Fed action or inflation data, otherwise it doesn't make sense to rally.

Bear market rally - could be fizzling already. Sell losers into strength.

Rates are not done going up. Inflation not clearly peaked yet.

You can stay long energy, health, utilities. Be careful elsewhere.

#16728 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

crypto has loosely become a leading indicator for the market and is still taking a beating, so imagine the downside isn't over yet.

Correlation of bitcoin and the Nasdaq is extremely high

#16734 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Those are the best plays right now, I'd add REITs to that list also. I have to tell you though the action is telling us we're near the bottom. I bought some tech, {Alphabet and Uber} because that signal.

Definitely can pick away at big tech. Stick with names that have reasonable positive P/E ratios I think.

Some of these names have become value stocks!

#16736 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

I had heard oil stocks were dead, Cramer called oil companies the new Tobacco.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/01/31/cramer-sees-oil-stocks-in-the-death-knell-phase-says-new-tobacco.html
I thought it was crazy how Saudi Aramco was valued as high as it is but it’s gigantic.
I’m glad have someone Exxon but didn’t buy as much as I should have. But it does go to show you that it pays to buy stocks that are out of favor.

Pandemic crashed oil temporarily but more importantly - it's almost halted E&D and $120 oil is the result. Russian war made it a bit worse but as China re-opens again, $140 doesn't seem out of the question this summer.

#16739 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Funny to watch Tom Lee these days - broken record - we think stocks are attractive at this point and we should have a market rally before the end of the year. And usually the next day Nasdaq down 2.5%. Never changes his tune. Same with Jim Cramer. I guess eventually they will be right, and then they called the reversal right?

Timing is always tough and right now there are so many moving parts. Oil prices to the moon is going to start filtering through the economy and that's not positive.

Inflation number this morning,

#16741 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Looks like we are starting another leg down

No new market lows yet but that was a high inflation print. Not good.

Outlook is just plain murky at best.

#16748 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

The Fed was quick to jump in and protect the stock market during the pandemic. But they've been very slow to protect the American consumer from runaway inflation. It now seems clear that they're moving way too slow in raising interest rates.

They were flat out wrong on inflation being transitory. Way behind the curve now yes.

Quoted from usandthem:

Yes. The main concept of being a market prognosticator or forecaster is to predict events BEFORE they happen. Cramer is an expert at telling you "I told you so" when he never really did tell us anything.

No one can be right all the time or know every industry and company well, Cramer is no exception. We have 100's of analysts doing what he seems to do alone on TV.

That said - I value his opinion, he has been around a long time. Take it all with a grain of salt.

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#16750 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

While I realize that's his job, I guarantee you that man is not doing it alone. He'd blow his brains out with that much workload and stress to make timelines when it's on a TV show. It's an opinion show no different than if you went to a fortune teller. He's paid whether he is right or wrong. This idea that someone on TV knows what they are talking about is the reason for all the media backlash. People thinking the opinion shows are somehow actual news. They are there for advertising dollars, that's it.
Meanwhile, is anyone actually surprised by any of this? Plenty of smart people said this was coming, said it would do just what it did. I think many people are hanging onto the last 2 years upward trends. Nothing major has really changed in any meaningful (positive) way since the dump earlier this year. Until that happens, I don't see much upward unless you are great at picking specific stocks.

I think he does a lot of it himself - he reads the research and talks to a lot of analysts. I'm sure he knows a bit about most major companies - just not deep in most cases. He has a generally good feel for the market though and that's a lot.

There is nothing surprising going on. Until inflation abates markets will be murkey. Stay long oil, utilities and health. Be careful elsewhere.

#16755 1 year ago
Quoted from PiperPinball:

They are all full of shit. Wall Street is one big legal Ponzi scam. (right behind SS). Its not investing, its trading. Buy, hold and pray.
Anyway, I pulled all my money out of stocks 2 years ago and bought commercial real-estate all with good debt.
Get out now while you can. Its going to get worse this year.
And read or listen to: 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' > Unfair Advantage (all his books are great!)

With higher rates on the way, real estate is starting to correct quickly. Don't get too comfortable with the idea you can't lose.

All assets have been pumped up by low rates for a decade++, not just stocks.

#16757 1 year ago
Quoted from Reality_Studio:

The beauty with real estate is that even in a correcting market you can still make money in a myriad of ways including rent, Airbnb, endless deductions, etc...

No different than a high quality dividend paying stock.

#16762 1 year ago

Closer!

Quoted from DCFAN:

Also, with Real Estate you always have the real estate taxes and upkeep.

I like real estate too but ya - it's got lots of issues also.

LE pinball machines is where it's really at!

#16767 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Well, the recent gloomy CFO poll puts the odds of recession better than 50/50. I guess the hope of a soft landing is now fading. If they're right we're in for more pain for at least the next 12 months. Inflation needs to brought down and Ukraine war needs to wind down...I won't be looking for any progress till those 2 things happen.
PS: Watch the headlines for early signs, layoffs and consumer spending cutbacks

I think recession is inevitable unfortunately. This inflation issue is global and has not been caused the traditional way.

War in Ukraine is not going away (high and higher oil prices) and supply chain is so screwed up by China shutdowns and labor shortages, it's hard to imagine a quick fix for these issues.

#16783 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Well... in the government contracting world there is a severe shortage of qualified workers. There was a huge wave of retirements at the start of COVID, and to compound to that the shift to remote work has led people to leave this industry in droves. I have six figure positions that I can't fill.

I see retirements and early retirements all over the place. People saying they are done with the BS after being off for COVID or out of the office.

Recession and market downturn will definitely fix the imbalance to some degree. If your retirement funds shrink quickly - Walmart will have a greeting job for you!

#16828 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Well... in the government contracting world there is a severe shortage of qualified workers. There was a huge wave of retirements at the start of COVID, and to compound to that the shift to remote work has led people to leave this industry in droves. I have six figure positions that I can't fill.

I see retirements and early retirements all over the place. People saying they are done with the BS after being off for COVID or out of the office.

Recession and market downturn will definitely fix the imbalance to some degree. If your retirement funds shrink quickly - Walmart will have a greeting job for you!

Quoted from Yoko2una:

Call me a pussy. I ain't going back to the office unless it's contingent on my continued employment AND they offset all those savings in life I have right now (some of which I value more than my equivalent "hourly rate" would suggest). My metrics have improved too, and they gave shit raises this year. If they try to get us "pussies" back, they won't know what hit them (morale killer, departures, demands...etc.). WFH has helped some companies thrive during these times and they haven't had to spend anything extra, and all we ask is that we perform better from our home office.

Right now you are likely to be able to stay at home and if you aren't a "career" guy then promotions don't matter. If the job market loses though, be careful.

Quoted from PiperPinball:

The 2 are very different.
You don't get depreciation or amortization or interest deductions from dividend stocks or any paper assets. Only in real-estate.
Plus the key word is 'Cash Flow' >passive income. And its taxed lower than paper assets like stocks.
Ready or listen to: amazon.com link »

Tax on dividends and cap gains also low. Much less work and better liquidity.

#16833 1 year ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

I hear ya but a ton of big companies, IT related included, are now bringing workers back to the office with a hybrid work approach.

We can work from home 2-3 days at home right now and most people are doing that.

I'm in every day again but I don't like sitting at home and a lot of good restaurants near my office.

#16855 1 year ago

Looks like we should get a big and predictable bounce today.

Enjoy the relief rally.

#16883 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

The market will be disappointed with anything less than a 0.75 rate hike tomorrow. The economy is a long way from bottoming, but keep in mind that the stock market bottoms well before the economy and tech/growth normally bounces first. I think the bottom comes before the end of the summer.

I agree - I think they need to go 0.75 or even a shock awe 1% hike.

I honestly think the market would love it.

#16885 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I bought more yesterday, blue chips and oil, I'm still shying away from tech. I plan on buying every 2 weeks as I always have, but I'm not ready to jump back into tech, I think it has more to fall. I'm not great at trying to time the market, but will shift back into buying tech at some point soon.

I don't think the pressure will come off tech until we see a signal from the Fed that the end of rate hikes is at least in sight.

You can pick away but it's probably best to wait.

#16892 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

my guess is November

When the Fed signals an end for rate hikes - market will turn up. Always forward looking 6-12 months.

Faster rates go up the better - 0.75% should give you a nice rally this afternoon if the language is right. Less might be a disaster.

#16897 1 year ago
Quoted from desertT1:

Fed raising rates 0.75%. Is that about what was expected? Curious if this makes the dip take a pause, reverses the last few days, or turns this Green Day red.

Yes - was indirectly relayed to the market

#16900 1 year ago

Looks like another dive on the open. Hold on to your hats!

#16902 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

Even as a 48 year old, this is the first time that I've ever lived through this escalation of inflation as an adult. What I don't understand is even if the interest-rate hikes were able to reign in inflation tomorrow, hasn't the damage already been done and won't we feel the effects for years to come? Inflation has been at a near 9% clip for a few quarters now. But we know that the prices of many things have gone up by a lot more. Even when they do successfully temper inflation, that just slows the rate of growth of prices. It won't actually bring them down, right? Unless everyone got an inflation adjusted raise (yeah right), won't the rapid rise in the inflation rate impact the spending power of Americans for a long time?

Prices can absolutely come back down in the future but the supply chain is broken, COVID is still an issue in China and Oil and Gas prices will likely stay high for years. The fed can only curb consumption with higher rates.

Fed blew it with too much liquidity for too long. Sadly we will pay for that for years to come. We can only hope our wages can keep up!

#16913 1 year ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

May want to copy this... you are going to be saying it often.

We are due for a rally soon though.

Add in oil on this pullback.

#16924 1 year ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

Damn.. some of you guys are seriously optimistic people.
I can't find any news anywhere that leads me to believe the market is done swan diving. Seems to be just starting up really.
If you can I would be interested to hear it.
I don't even know how valid historical data is in this case since we have never had the sheer number of issues at the same time as we have now.

Oh I'm not optimistic. I only said buy oil dips. Nothing else.

1 week later
#16939 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Rally is expected to continue next week, pushing the S&P to 4000.

I think the rally could continue for sure but I'm not sure the bottom is in yet. Be careful and keep watching inflation and fed.

#16947 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Crypto is signaling a lower open today

Crypto could be a black swan event if it crashes

#16951 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

down around 75% off it's high .... hasn't it already crashed?

I mean CRASHED!

#16955 1 year ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

Yeah, take that sucker under 3k again.
I think 1K would be very good for it. When everyone says "I'll never use/buy it again" (and they mean it), then it will be fairly priced.

No bottom on it. Microsoft buying yesterday did nothing LOL.

Could turn very ugly if panic selling sets in.

#16964 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I expect it go go lower, probably below $10k, but I still consider 75% a crash
Glad I sold at 30k wish I sold at 60k

It is for a stock - crypto is a different ball game. No intrinsic value.

Quoted from Zablon:

I've been watching split stocks trying to determine when is a good time to get in...and so far..nothing looks good...nothing....nothing....
You would think there'd be something that makes bank during these things...like liquor, drugs, pharma, check cashing places/pay day loans, guns, home security, cybersecurity. Just not seeing it. Even energy is taking a dump. Maybe I should look into mega yachts. That business seems to be booming.

All asset prices were inflated (including pinball). I think all asset prices will come down at least a little.

Hold your cash.

#16976 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Gold opened Jan 4th at $1811 now at $1804, not holding up to inflation yet, but I'll take it over most investments right now

May as well hold cash. Gold has been dead money for a few years now.

#16977 1 year ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

The problem here is that we are in a recession but no one has been willing to call it yet so news is still up and down.
Plus todays market doesn't have much relation to the earlier ones since the fed has pretty much propped this up on its shoulders since 2008.
When the spinning plate show stops and everyone finally has to admit we are there in full blown recession the real drop will start.
People can "buy the dip" all they want but from what I know the real drop hasn't even started yet.
The fed had been dicking around with the market since 2008... their taps are finally off. Good luck.

Recession doesn't matter. The worry on Wall Street is inflation and how big a recession we need to quash inflation. The more stubborn inflation is, the further the market will drop.

#16980 1 year ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

If you bought gold pre-pandemic, you've made at least 20%. I guess that's not terribly exciting for some people, but it's also far from "dead".

I've definitely done better with stocks even with this pull back.

#16983 1 year ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

It matters for perception...
all the news is "are we heading into recession or not" blah blah which causes some of the up and down and is keeping it propped up a bit.
When the news turns to "guess what? we are in a recession" watch out.

I don't think so, negative growth doesn't affect people much. Unless layoffs start happening (what I meant by a deep recession) no one really pulls back that much.

With that all said, I am very worried this inflation we have today will be very hard to kill and I think it could get ugly.

#16987 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I think what effects the mentality of "having money to blow" (decline of investment portfolios/crypto) is definitely starting to hit retail spending. Just look at how much the NIB hype has cooled off in the market place.

NIB has also cooled because Stern has decent supply for once. Many of those back orders finally cleared.

That said I agree, for people with assets in market I definitely feel a bit less likely to make a big purchaae now vs 6 months ago.

#16991 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Well Energy is now 5% of the S&P and 9% of the earnings value.
Cheap valuations, high dividends, massive FCF, and clarity of what earnings will be, like auto and home insurance, prescriptions, etc.
Oil was over $100 per barrel from 2010-2014. After 10 years of underinvestment around the world we now have a structural supply issue that isn’t going away anytime soon.
Take advantage of it. JP Morgan and others “pounding the table” on Energy
Love me some Apple and Microsoft too. Don’t need to own all 500 stocks of the S&P which is down 20% ytd, while the Aggregate Bond index is down over 10% ytd. Guaranteed loser. Wow.
There is a point on that declining inflation curve that intersects with Fed future rate hikes where policy will reverse and so will growth stocks. That’s the trick, when?

All correct. Oil can actually stay well over $100 much longer than people think because this time governments have a lot more restrictions on new oil development and oil companies /lenders less willing to finance new production. This pullback on energy is a great entry point.

Timing is e everything on growth. No hurry to get in yet that's for sure.

#16992 1 year ago

Blood bath today, no where to hide!

#16995 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Nowhere? A lot of my watchlist is up 10% off the days lows. Not sure why, but growth tech surged.

Ya, tech turned later in the morning

Could lead the market back up ... maybe

#16998 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Hmm...yeah, it sure looked like a pivot to me too...but let's see, we still have a lot of bad stuff in the pipe. I say get ready to jump into big tech soon.

Amazon earnings could be key

#17000 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Yeah, I noticed the option activity, they're bullish. I'm not ready to jump back in yet. I think the earning's reset and a housing deflation will take us down another couple of pegs.

No new market lows still. I think we are holding for now. Bounce coming if you want to sell anything.

Big commodity drops are going to help inflation in the months ahead.

1 week later
#17002 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Another high inflation number - hoping we retrace the lows at least if not a bit more. Getting anxious to put some money to work.

Wait

#17007 1 year ago

Market is trying to find a bottom. You can buy bits and pieces for long run. Weak hands are mostly flushed out.

Second half will see some kind of rally eventually.

#17011 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/broken-global-economy-jacking-prices-093000424.html
A somewhat different(?) perspective of where we are, how we got here, and why.

Very interesting article!

Quoted from BRONX:

kool1
What stocks are on your watch list???
I'm on the sidelines aswell
Not a good thing when, the market is down 600 points at 10am and by lunch it's up 60 and by 4pm it close down 200.....
Or up 300 on Monday, down 600 on Tuesday up 630 on Wednesday, down 330 on thursday up 237 on Friday. To me market is unstable, no one has a clue how to value, going forward risk a big question mark???? Could get real ugly, good earnings could give things a bump, but future is unstable and by Sept and October is anyone's guess?

It's not a guess. More an estimate.

Inflation should start to come down somewhat with commodities and the economy is already slowing. Very good signs the fed will ease up on interest rates in the coming months. This will see the markets turn slowly.

Can't predict covid or war but these are not the main factors driving the markets.

#17017 1 year ago
Quoted from ticktockman:

Bought some UNH. It’s 10-year chart exceeds any of the mega-tech companies. Both a defensive play for a possible recession and an offensive one. Really can’t go wrong.

Health care is not only a great place to hide, it's also likely to outperform the market for years to come. UNH should be a core holding for health care.

#17020 1 year ago
Quoted from BRONX:

Anyone familiar with I.B.M???
I abandoned big blue about 10yrs ago? Dosent seem they did much?
Any hope?
Still a dow jones30 component, but there market cap now makes them a lower tier in the down compared to 10yrs ago when they were one of the higher market capped corporations....
Buffet dumped them aswell...... anyone holding I.b.m or thinking of buying???

Good downside protection + yield but poor upside participation - That said, if it were to break through ~$150 it might have a chance to go higher

#17028 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Just bought 103 shares of Peleton at 8.86. It's down 90% since I bought (1) share around Halloween. I'm in it $1,000 now. Peleton can't go down forever can it... can it?

No technical bottom on the stock and no profit so it could go lower. Seems a bit risky, consumer discretionary also.

Might work out but I would go with profitable companies with stable to growing earnings for now.

#17034 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Yes, easy credit has led to a distortion of money. Younger folks just put it on the card..as if it's magic. I'm not sure of there is a course in school about saving and debt, and general personal finances anymore. But a few years back I remember reading about banks and credit card companies targeting college students... Looks like it actually worked. I've been accused of being too much of a saver many a times but I believe living below your means is the easiest way to financial freedom. I don't want to wake at 70 and realize oh shit, I'm out of money.

Easy and cheap money has inflated everything from real estate to pinball machines. Throw it on the line of credit or the Visa card was not a good idea 20 years ago but when rates went to zero and stayed there it was a no brainer. Spend spend spend.

I'm definitely more of a saver than a spender these days and it feels good having savings and extra money in the bank. I even stopped myself from buying another pin this summer because I see things softening. As a Gen X retirement isn't that far off anymore, I don't mind working to 65 or 70 but I definitely want to feel secure before I pull the plug on work life.

#17047 1 year ago
Quoted from BRONX:

With everything that's been going on lately I'm shocked the gold has been pretty dead? I don't even hear a peep from any pinsider lately talking about gold? Weird

Quoted from nwpinball:

Gold has never been a good investment compared to stocks and this is a stocks thread. Gold bugs, hoarders, and dudes wishing for the apocalypse want to have a gotcha moment on the rest of us on gold, but it's always short lived.

Gold has been dead through this turmoil. I think the strong USD explains some of that.

Gold has actually outperformed the S&P since 2000 but most of the performance happened earlier.

https://www.usglobaletfs.com/insights/gold-has-beaten-the-sp-500-index-so-far-this-century/

#17048 1 year ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

Is this a failure on a generation of students, or the generation that established their learning curriculum? Personal finance should be taught in high school. Kids should know about compounding interest, and how it can work for you or against you. Higher education in its current form is bullshit for most degrees. I have a BBA, and I've learned as much or more in targeted minimal fee/free courses than I did listening to a blowhard professor ramble for an hour before retreating to his office. Most students are hyper-focused on grades at the expense of learning - that piece of paper works as a gatekeeper for lazy and out of touch employers, so without it you're screwed.

I'm always stunned to see how financially out of wack most people are in terms of savings, budgeting, personal finances and understanding basic things like credit. Personal finance should be mandatory for every student before they can graduate. It's ridiculous that it is not.

#17054 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

It really just out-performed the SP500 from 2008 to 2014, as well as before 1996. But in the modern era of investing, it's not been the way to make money, it's been the way to store money. It makes sense if you are a multimillionaire to store some of your money in gold, but it doesn't make sense for the average investor, who statistically will do better in the Market.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

I agree - I don't have any gold at all.

Just pointing out that it's not been bad the last 22 years.

Quoted from kvan99:

Let's talk earnings...So easy guess Oil/energy co are going to kill it. A little late with this news but banks are going to kill it too, so will investment brokers. The other sector maybe big tech, I think the earnings are going to come in bad this quarter. The only sector that's shaky is maybe Fintech, ie: Paypal (my luck). The chip makers have already reported good numbers. Automakers may look a little weak due to supply issues. Airlines are going to be at least good for one more quarter, oil is down and planes are full, so with that logic so should go the hotels and casinos (I'm guessing). Industrials as with oil should be pretty darn good too. By the way, I'm trading this bounce, I decided that yesterday, when the market turned on a dime. I think once the earnings are over the market will be looking to sell off again. Sorry to be a negative Nancy but 2 more rate hikes are baked in...I doubt we will rally for real till they're on the books.

Heavily global companies likely to report FX hits to earnings.

Market looks like it may have bottomed but be careful. We are definitely not out of the woods, could just be a bear market rally. Really nice to have a big green day though!

#17059 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Peleton is up 10% today... Dumb luck, but I'll take it!

Not really. Almost every beat up technology stock is getting a bid right now. All good, but you may want to treat like a trade vs. a long term investment .

#17064 1 year ago
Quoted from Deaconblooze:

Seems like a nice bump offering an opportunity to buy some puts.

I would sell calls - make some money

Downside on these stocks isn't high anymore.

#17076 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Amazon is now up over 7% since the split.

Yes - but nothing to do with the split

Quoted from WeirPinball:

Thinking about taking a wild shot at shorting NVIDIA. They have slashed current GPUs with a glut of 3000 series available, and they way overbought 4000 series chips based on crypto mining demand. Starting to think they will disappoint on earnings, just not sure when.

Be very careful, more upside than downside here

#17078 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Well the jig is up... Walmart just killed the rally.

Yep.

That said - a lot of earnings out this week. The downdraft could be temporary. Or.. It could get worse.

Cash is still king.

#17081 1 year ago

Recession is mostly priced in, big downside is likely limited. The day to day reactions of stocks to earnings or other news is mostly noise. Walmart looks like it could hold it's 52 week low.

Market is waiting for a signal that rate hikes are coming to an end. Until then don't expect any extended upward movement in stocks.

#17090 1 year ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

I think part of what people are not taking into consideration is this is right before a major election. They are going to do everything they can to goose it.
Can they pull it off? Or will it fall apart because they can't do anything right? Can the global economy stay quiet that long?
Either way, it falls apart before the election or right after it.... as they'll have no reason to deceive after that point.
Kiss 2023 (at least) goodbye. Recovery sometime in 2024 or later (IMO). I think the down will be fast, hot and heavy: probably lasting a year or longer.
The lows following 2008 have to be retested. Highs are retested, lows are retested, it's just how everything works. We got out of post 2008 with Fed Crack, it was unnatural. Therefore we have to go back and finish the job. It will undo an entire generation, but it will happen.
Cramer will be screaming about "Getting back to even" all over again.
The true buying opportunity of our lifetime is coming, if you manage to have dry powder during it. Credit will be non-existent for the average joe, so almost all will not be able to participate and end up poorer than they ever could imagine. A heartbreaking time for most, and a dream come true for others.
Say hello to insane taxes afterward no matter what. Public assistance will be off the charts.

Politics itself has very little long term effect on global markets.

Average bear market is about 10 months. I see no reason to believe (yet) that this one will be protracted or significantly deeper than we have gone already.

#17095 1 year ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

But politics create financial environments which affect global markets: Japan's printing and the associated "lost decade" (which is still going on) completely ended growth for that country. Greece & Italy's policies and what that has done to the Euro as a whole. Everything begins with political policies and agendas.
The USA is (for the moment) still the bedrock currency for the world, and so many countries are pegged to it in one way or another: politics here do sway the world. Maybe that will be different in a few years as others are rightfully tired of the nonsense (I am, and I live here..... LOL!!!). As the credit market runs out of steam here, the world will wither.... until someone else backstops all credit for the world.
Personally, I'm of the opinion (and have been for two+ decades) that the need for a serious deflationary cycle is both natural and necessary. The economy is unhealthy now because this has not been allowed to happen, or when a downturn starts it's not allow to complete. Every boom should come out of the ashes of a bust, and a bust should follow every boom..... not an endless boom and expansion. Expansion are not real when fueled by credit. Credit must be destroyed in a regular cycle to be healthy, otherwise currency itself is destroyed as an alternative..... which we have already seeing for decades. It needs to end, and one way or another it will. It will be allowed to get healthy thru pruning, or it will become so sickly that trust from participants ends.
Money is worth less than one third of what it was when I was a kid. In ten years it will be worth a tenth (or less) vs when I was a kid. That is untenable. Deflation must come around to restore value and create scarcity in currency. Mass failures are what keep a financial system healthy.
Price discovery always arrives with deflation, and that's what market participants are scared of most.

Long term policy can absolutely make some difference to the well-being of a country or region but it has very little effect on markets themselves. Greek or Italian markets could underperfom (or currency could devalue) as a consequence of say massive long term overspending but none of this happens short to medium term.

Deflation is a horrible thing, you should never wish for it or desire it. Imagine if you knew prices were lower in the future. People would stop consuming and the entire economy would collapse into oblivion.

#17104 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

What is the pop for today - that the fed didn't go higher than 75 basis points?

Feeling from fed that the end of rate hikes may slow and the end may be near.

Market wants to hear this. I'm not so sure we are there yet.

#17106 1 year ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

Well here is the thing... no one lives in reality anymore especially media.
CNN has been saying for weeks that two periods of down GDP are a recession.
Then it happens and instead of calling it they say "are we in a recession?"
Its a joke... we are and have been in recession despite their fake jobs numbers and they need to stop the bullshit and deal with it.
Nothing has a proper definition anymore and all data is suspect so what do you do?

CNN is not a business channel - watch Bloomberg

The data showing negative growth is there but given how small the shrinkage is and the fact there is essentially full employment, it definitely doesn't feel like a traditional recession.

#17110 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:Good luck to any average person knowing what is true or not. No one has time to deep dive research and cross reference everything happening day to day when there's always someone yelling "that's fake/biased" regardless of where it came from.

Ya - sad statement on the world today. Best thing you can do is watch different sources.

Markets are climbing nicely but don't get too comfortable. I'm not sure another downdraft isn't around the corner.

#17120 1 year ago
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

ust curious if some will chime in please.
I own mostly individual stocks.
How many individual stocks do you own?
I average about 75-90. Even on down days I can be up overall. I feel like sometimes I have my own index fund I'm spread out over most every sector.

Ya, 90 probably too many stocks

20-30 high conviction names is lots. Our portfolios are usually no more than 30, and I think that's too many.

Quoted from Zablon:

I thought I wrote this in my last post...
I keep seeing people saying employment is strong, but the layoffs are just beginning. Tech is/was first, but it is spreading. I still think what we are seeing is a natural rubberband effect. It is clear that things are not 'back to normal' in in supply lines, although better, and people are STILL complaining they can't find workers. It's a weird time.
As for prices, around here we see the increases, but the biggest increases seems to be around prepared food. In grocery stores and restaurants. The shelf stocked items they have been shrinking the portions as they normally do to counter price increases.

It is a weird time but we have never had a global pandemic and war at the same time so expect the unexpected.

Inflation will be hard to slay with energy prices high and global supply disruptions. I don't see any quick solutions.

#17153 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

There’s fantasy land virtue signaling and then there is straight up reality.
Look at Europe and their dependence on Russia. They get it now. The reality part.
The funny thing, it’s Exxon, Chevron, BP and others that are leading the way to the future in “renewables”. Hydrogen, carbon capture etc.
It will take decades and they have begun with billions of investment.
The government? If it was so good and effective why do they need to “incentivize” these poor money losing investments.
Leave to Tesla, Ford, GM etc and the Energy companies and get out of the way.
What do you think would happen if everyone drove an EV today? How is the electricity gonna get powered? Fantasy land thinking. Lol
Progress is an evolution, not the flip of a switch.
Oh and as far as the voters go, 1% of Americans and 3% of Democrats make this “green energy” the top priority.

All correct. There is a lot of fantasy floated by politicians all over the world.

Quoted from Jkush18:

Can’t argue that. Commodities and real estate have been a few bright spots lately. Value did outpace growth from 2020 to mid 2021.

Both have started to crack. Real estate is coming down further for sure.

Quoted from Jkush18:

That’s a cute sentiment. 33 stocks is hardly diverse unless you are buying indices.

It's more than diverse enough. More than 30 adds little to nothing. I find 20-25 is the sweet spot for clients. I have 20.

#17154 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Zero Emerging Markets the last 5 years here.
Even the new Bond King Jeff Gundlach, whose bonds funds have been awful like all of them said no EEM yet. Horrendous performance. And since I manage over a Billion $$$ for folks it matters
Zero Bonds, Zero EEM or international now
The 5 yr return on the EEM is -8% and the 10 yr total return is a whopping 1%. Maybe you are surprised by that?
Either way, the rest of the world is a no go for me now, the US, despite the idiot leadership is still far and away #1.
It’s worked out well. I’ll take the companies I mentioned that sell all over the world.

Don't need to own emerging markets, usually a disaster around the corner. Don't need to own bonds. Have to own for client asset allocation.

Being Canadian I own Canada (oil /banks especially) and US only. Most clients the same.

Europe is slow/no growth forever, few companies are good. China is uninvestable IMO. A few Asian companies are ok.

#17160 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

What.about Crescent and Baytex for Canadian Energy? Very cheap

I own Crescent Point, Whitecap Resources, Cenovus, Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources. All growing divideds and cheap.

#17166 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Yes! Up 25% in a little more than a week. I think the uptrend continues. If others on here rode this up please don't sell yet..Amazon guided higher so the slow mutual funds and managers will jump in next week and send it a little higher. I guess after next week, you can reduce it or just put a trailing stop and see what happens. Macro wise the market will go lower after the earnings hoopla is over but some of these large cap techs may not follow.

Amazon rally nice but could fade soom. Careful.

Quoted from iceman44:

Cenovus and CNR are two more that fit the bill. Haven’t followed Whitecap.
Great management is a key driver to take advantage of this market.
FANG, DVN and PXD are my top 3 but I’m looking at a broader basket that might be undervalued relative to their peers.
PXD payout is the highest on the S&P right now at 15%. What’s not to like? Superior management as well. Same for FANG and DVN
If you actually listen to the Energy companies themselves and read the quarterly reports, XOM and CVX yesterday for example then we are in for a tight supply and increasing demand scenario at least for the remainder of the year and most likely for years to come.
Of course an end to the Russia conflict would cause a quick sell off on the news, especially Nat gas but how likely is that to happen?
The crescent write up is behind a paywall or I would post it.

Can get you write ups on anything you need. Let me know.

For oil follow Eric Nuttall comments, he runs the best energy fund in Canada. Extremely knowledgeable.

https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/ninepoint-energy-fund/

#17171 1 year ago
Quoted from ZenTron:

Yea, i bought 3x $GOOG and 1x $AMZN pre-split, who’d think $AMZN would be winning the race.

I admit I didn't see that. GOOG seemed like the better bet.

$143-45 resistance on AMZN

#17177 1 year ago

Market looks like it wants to come back down a bit

#17188 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

It is $600 on electronic payments per year (cumalative), slated as paying for goods/services - so if you f&f paypal, you can still get around it. They were trying to do the same on bank transactions but that got nixed. Probably after the senators started thinking, hmmm, I have to report everything over $600 - f that!

PayPal is a nightmare for money transfers. I try not to use it after they held my $8000 hostage.

Visa is a better stock too. There is nothing special about PayPal.

Quoted from kvan99:

Yeah... After the earnings fever is over they'll talk about the consumer and cooling real estate market and then they'll talk themselves into a sell-off

It's more of a technical thing. Barring some very bullish news trading programs will likely sell after this big rally.

#17192 1 year ago

Should be a good buying opportunity for energy .. The China slowdown has taken over the headlines

#17196 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I agree. Looking for a good basket of energy instead of single stocks - any good pics?

Good oil commentary from Eric
https://www.ninepoint.com/commentary/commentaries/2022/072022/eric-nuttall-h1-2022-market-review-and-outlook/

Grab CNQ. 4.5% yield and a special $1.50 dividend announced today

Quoted from kvan99:

I'm selling half of my QQQs here, and putting a 10% trailing stop for the other half.

Awesome bounce but it's hard to believe it's going to last. I agree.

#17204 1 year ago

We had a client transfer out because I wasn't being aggressive enough with her account. She wanted all small and midcap high octane tech stocks, her friends were all making way more she said. It's never "different this time".

#17205 1 year ago

Non farm payrolls 2x expectations

Down we go!

#17207 1 year ago

If you are able to buy TSX stocks NNRG. Fully managed small-midcap.
https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/ninepoint-energy-fund/?nav-toggle=14208

XLE is easy though for sure!

#17213 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Not yet. Not-profitable growth continues to squeeze. Many up 50-75% off their lows (while still being 70-80% off their highs). They overshot on the upside, then overshot on the downside.
My brokerage account is having its best week since March, up over 10%. While my retirement accounts are flat.

Markets held, nice! CPI probably more important. Good sign though, definitely a change in tone.

Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Holy shit LABU up another 12% today. Any experts on biotech out there?

I stay away from that sector. Too difficult to understand.

#17217 1 year ago
Quoted from radium:

I checked, I lost 42% in three quarters.
You are 100% right I need to read a few books. Never been great with money and don’t know where to start.

Probably need an advisor. Bull markets are easy but it's not easy navigate bear markets.

#17228 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Dodgy-Demand-Data-The-Oil-Price-Collapse-Conspiracy.html
I have clients that work for Valero here locally. Saudis, XOM, CVX etc saying the same thing.
Beware, hurricane season about to pick up, above average number of storms expected, and October is right around the corner with the big drop off of strategic reserves into the market.
A “deep recession”? Different deal, but how do you have that with full employment?

I agree. There is no massive unemployment issue and global supply is still tight.

Definitely a little break right now but I'm collecting amazing yield, extra dividends and a call on winter which I see prices likely making new highs.

#17235 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Yeah, unemployment dropped again, that's the exact opposite sign of a recession. I'm feeling more optimistic on the Market each day... or falling into a bear trap

We may not see much unemployment this recession. A lot depends on global supply-side this time around. If we see commodity prices ease, labor shortages ease and supply chains normalize we may see a pretty mild recession.

Next few months will be telling but it seems like some of these things are slowly easing. Lower inflation numbers over the next few months should give the market support at the very least.

#17241 1 year ago
Quoted from jackd104:

Paranoid money question. How to protect some assets from total collapse of the United States to allow for bugging out to another country without wealth being destroyed? You may think I’m nuts. And while that may not be likely scenario, looking what’s happening within and without, it’s certainly more likely than it’s been In the last 150 years.

Nothing you fear happens overnight. You could go gold I suppose.

US cash is still king IMO. If that's not the case, the world is going off a cliff and we are all doomed anyway.

Quoted from Zablon:

I personally do not think we really have anything to worry about. Small skirmishes with extremeists? Sure. But I don't see a full on civil war happening. Too many people attached to their lifestyles. The places that go through revolutions are still WAY worse off than we are.

I agree. Number of nut jobs is small but more visible in 2022.

#17245 1 year ago
Quoted from Kneissl:

Inflation might be high, but it's not like Gold has been compensating.

It's held better than stocks but ya - US dollar strength has kept it pretty flat. I think you will see it come up soon. It's due.

BTW, I am not a gold bug at all. LOL.

#17262 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Too early on that one for me but watching too. Still not making $$$
I like to see an “E” these days at least until the Fed pivots next yr
But like Bill said, a great platform.

I agree - generally sticking with companies with positive earnings and lower P/Es

Shopify is solid growth though and they just slashed 10% of their workers so they may be + sooner!

#17267 1 year ago
Quoted from jackd104:

Trying to time the market isn’t investing, just gambling. And there’s nothing wring with that as long as you recognize what it is. Gambling is a timeless pastime for many.

Trying to time markets in and out is extremely difficult.

What we generally do is raise some cash when market is falling clearing out of the weaker stocks that have lower conviction and/or higher valuations. Reallocate that cash as the market starts to recover. We have started deploying the last few weeks now.

#17271 1 year ago
Quoted from ZenTron:

This is a great question. When people say “in cash” how much % of their portfolio is in cash? When I hear that phrase i usually think the majority.

I never go more than 20-30% cash. Never. Did it in 2008.

Was only 10% this time.

#17276 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Not worried about buying stocks, just don't understand the pop in stocks when the inflation number is so bad. Fed targets 2%, looks like a lot more work to go

It's not the number it's the direction.

I wouldn't be buying huge here as market was over sold and due for a big bounce. Could be more upside short term but we aren't out of the woods yet.

Lots of stuff you can own and collect yield on while you wait. Energy, utilities and health care come to mind.

#17285 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

Disney Stock is killing it, I mean it's still way down for the year but up 30% for one month.

Ya - I picked that up at $97. It was so over sold.

#17289 1 year ago

My issue with Paypal is current valuation and I don't know that they will ever make much money.

Visa trades at nearly half the multiple

#17294 1 year ago

Market could be gassed now short term - today it looked very tired

#17297 1 year ago
Quoted from ZenTron:

I sold my AAPL and DKS positions around lunch. I can flip a coin to know what tomorrow will bring but i know i made some profits today at least. I do hope it tanks some since i got some cash now though.

Quoted from taylor34:

This is the way I look at things currently with regards to the stock market.
Headwinds
Interest rates rising
Wages not keeping up with inflation
Quantitative tightening hasn’t even gone into effect yet really
Earnings are falling
PE still above long term average
Housing market is cooling off
Employment is already full so there’s not much more money consumers can make
Tailwinds
Some names had really gotten cheap
10 year has been falling
Energy has cooled off a little, but not any other inflation component
I just look at that macro picture, and I don’t see a very high chance of high returns in stocks for the next 6 months. Your sole path to high returns is:
Inflation falls off a cliff, fed pivots and starts cutting rates
But if inflation falls off a cliff, it’s probably due to a recession/stocks tanking, in which case now is not a good time either.
You’d need inflation to go down a lot while stocks earnings go way up, interest rates to not go up, qt to stop, etc…doesn’t seem like a high probability scenario. It seems like the fed will keep tightening until the stock/credit market forces a pivot. If companies make more money they’ll compete for workers more and keep the inflation stuff going.
The single biggest thing they could do to reign in inflation right now is to restart student loan payments, that is highly deflationary.

I think I will liquidate 10-15% this morning. I'm out of town most of next week and I feel like this rally is close to done.

Agree - market upside seems very limited right now and more rate hikes are coming soon. Good to have some dry powder if another dip comes.

#17300 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I always say don’t do it like I do . Timing the market is impossible. But I’ve sold off everything for now including TTD, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL. I do have some MSFT puts I sold that expire in Sept. collected on $255 Aug puts and rolled to $275 Sept puts
I’ll be looking to add them all back for the long term along with some small cap growth names in the next few months.
For now, I’ve been all in FANG (40k shares), DVN and PXD. Will collect the Divs, covered calls and put sales. Fully invested
For clients, I’ve been overweight Energy and big cap tech for over a year. Value tilt in main model.
Apple represents approx 22% of overall AUM. Growth and dip buying for years has gotten us there. I see no reason, like Buffett, to change course there.

You can't pull clients in and out of stocks - too crazy.

Have a very similar tilt - energy and value. Never sold any AAPL, GOOG, MSFT. Sold some AMZN but it had been underperforming long before the market went south. Too soon for too much growth.

#17307 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

This didn't age well...

A lot of the big bounce stocks will hit 200 day resistance very soon.

You can't pick tops and bottoms. Sold 10% into good strength today for myself only.

#17325 1 year ago

Apple way overbought hitting resistance

#17328 1 year ago
Quoted from taylor34:

He's probably right, but I'm not sure if makes any difference if the reports on positioning are correct (everyone being short still). Twitter is still uber-bearish, makes me think the opposite is going to happen for a while. There's been this huge disconnect between fundamentals, interest rates, and the current stock price, and I haven't seen anything lately that would make me think this is changing anytime soon. In fact, if it breaks the 200ma, I could see it breaking record highs. Should it? No. But BBBY isn't supposed to 5x in a week, Gamestop isn't supposed to be splitting stock while losing massive amounts of money, etc.

Sell only if you are trading. Short term AAPL outperformed almost everything as a safety go to name. That's it.

I may sell 1/2 of my position today.i always have some apple in my account.

#17337 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

You said it, if it's a "trading account" might make sense. I'm 100% Energy in my trading account. As always, "Don't do it like i do".
For clients, BUY APPLE, HOLD IT, AND BUY MORE WHEN IT GOES ON SALE.
Now i will tell you this, that strategy has aged very well in this thread since i've been posting that at the beginning of this thread years ago.
Pretty sure DCFAN has owned it for years as well here?

Apple call is for traders. I was overweight Apple, Google, oil/gas. I'm lightening up that's all.

Clients all just hold Apple yes.

Quoted from DCFAN:

Hasn’t Apple been buying back shares and lowering their cash holdings?
I don’t recommend betting against Apple in any long term way. You might get lucky in the short term but good luck with that kind of gambling.
My Apple stock investments will and have already paid for all the cell phones I will ever buy and all the streaming services I subscribe many times over.

Share buybacks are nice but they don't grow earnings or revenue.

Past isn't like the future, don't expect 10 more years of outperformance. Can't expect the big growth stocks of the last 10 years to be the growth stocks for the next 10. AAPL is a core holding but not a growth holding.

#17342 1 year ago

That's what makes a market.

Lot of resistance to burst through now to get there.

#17350 1 year ago

Technicals and the reality of more rate hikes in September hit as expected. It's never exact but I don't expect new lows. I've got about 15% cash ready to redeploy.

Energy did bounce nicely today. $90 +/- $3 oil is holding pretty nicely. Gas was strong.

#17353 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Some guest analyst on CNBC last week said that since 1950, anytime a market has retraced x% (I don't remember the number, 50 or 60, whatever we recently did) of the bear market drop, it has never made new lows. There's always a first time, but historically we made a lasting low in June.

Ya it's 50%. Lows are almost certainly in. Recession could be long and mild though so It's going to be a bumpy ride.

I'm big on cash yield right now also, anything to get some return back this year. Energy yields are juicy and growing with upside going into winter.

#17356 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Technical analysis is good to know but one of Tom Lee’s big hedge fund clients asked him if he ever knew a really wealthy chart guy

Charts are a vital tool but longer term investing is where I have made the money.

#17366 1 year ago

I doubt anything positive comes out tomorrow.

More downside than up.

#17372 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Bought some CLF after hours yesterday on price increase of $75 per ton. Also added FCX for copper
Picked up Google again mid day
And PINS on “shuffles” news as #1 lifestyle app and trending on Tik Tok
Elliot management and new CEO will get it done. Was hoping to wait until late Sept
I feel the FED will only do 50 basis points in Sept, however, the $500 billion college loan forgiveness is only going to add fuel to the fire.
The latest rate hikes and tightening haven’t really begun to sink in fully, mortgages and autos. Rents are a problem
It’s all hands on deck for the November elections.
The run continues for PXD and FANG. My two largest holding by far.

Commodity stocks should have a couple of good years.

Keep your eye on uranium also. I added CCJ 2 weeks ago. Japan back in, gas is staying high and uranium prices are moving up.

#17384 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Yep - this whole green thing is bull, you can't power cities with solar and wind. Only real solution large scale is nuclear and they take so long to get through approval and construction. Oil isn't going anywhere

I'm all for green power but the idea that it's all around the corner and traditional sources are obsolete is utter nonsense.

Buy oil, gas, uranium. Under investment in energy development by every country in the world is just starting to hit. Russia made it worse.

#17389 1 year ago

Ridiculous but almost predictable reaction to JH comments. Dollar strength was crazy too.

Wouldn't be surprised if we bounce a bit early next week.

-1
#17392 1 year ago

Oil and gas exploration is a disaster. I'll bet Elon has a big bet on energy, he knows what is going on.

#17395 1 year ago
Quoted from jchristian11:

Disaster as in under investment?

Yep

Quoted from iceman44:

You know he does. He’s one of the few people that can say the “quiet part” out loud and have it reported and people listen.

It's time for a global change in attitude towards oil and gas.

#17398 1 year ago
Quoted from Lethal_Inc:

So I just recently put the max contribution into my IRA brokerage account but have yet to divvy it up to what I think will help grow my retirement account. This sucks, I don’t know what to do. Leave it in the bank and get nothing, put in in the stock market and hope for the best, or just wait it out and see what happens. Weird times in the country.

Lows are in for the market - you should not worry if you are a long term investor. Great time to buy in.

#17405 1 year ago

Blood is back on the

Could re-test, new lows still seem unlikely

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#17412 1 year ago

Market should bounce here - oversold. Volumes are very light, I would not worry too much. Could drift a bit lower but I still think the June lows will hold.

Buying the dip with my 15% trading money. I may wait till Tuesday though.

1 week later
#17419 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I think the next few weeks are going to be quiet news wise....and as usual with the absence of bad news market will get a small bounce. But eventually, as they hike and hike reality will set in and the market will turn lower.

You may be right. No news is good news.

Made a quick 8-10% for some clients that bought oil last week and earlier this week. Feels good. Weak hands probably all flushed out.

#17420 1 year ago

Well... CPI killed the market yet again.

#17429 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Dang... DOW pointed to a 600 point drop at open.

Minor setback but goes to show inflation is sticking around for now.

Probably more pain needed to quash it.

#17436 1 year ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

A lot of stuff beaten back down. Question ultimately is, spread investment around upside tech…or just buy more Apple?

Tech and Apple aren't going anywhere right now. No rush to buy.

Buy oil stocks, they are hanging in nicely and you can collect some fat dividends on the majors.

#17447 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

You know about batteries right? They store energy. It's completely ignorant to call them feel good energy production, they are very much real energy production and are part of the path to America's energy independence.

Very small potatoes compared to oil. Growing for sure but not very significant yet.

Quoted from cnuts13:

I think thats the easy obvious choice. Im dumping all my energy at the end of the year. the major gains have already been made. Just my opinion

If you are trading maybe but oil and gas is a longer term story. Higher prices are coming next year and probably the year after that too.

#17458 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

3900 on S&P still holding so far...

Below 3900 we re-test the June lows

Maybe we do maybe we don't

#17474 1 year ago
Quoted from BRONX:

Anyone touching Intel???
Nice yield, is it safe though??
Any thoughts?

No. Stay away from all semiconductors and especially INTC. They have a lot of issues.

#17482 1 year ago
Quoted from BRONX:

Thanks for your input,. I put Intel in my watch list. Not buying any at the moment, trying to bottom fish a few companies

Don't bottom fish, worst mistake in investing. Buy good companies with good charts that go on sale during market dips. Intel has been in decline for years and there is no quick fix. Another example, IBM.

Quoted from gonzo73:

Long term investments....
Dividends dividends dividends....

Dividends are definitely key right now. Growing dividends even better.

Markets will dump on the open. Looks like we may retest June lows.

#17485 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

FedEx fire sale today Holy crap down 25%

Yup - economy is definitely slowing. Some of it is Fedex specific most likely.

#17499 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Crypto is still tanking so fasten your seat belts for tomorrow's open

Glad I got out in the spring - not bottom and not intrinsic value. Some very heavy losses there!

#17501 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Foreign exchange is nuts too. Euro is at parity with the dollar again. When I moved from Japan 10 years ago it was 75 yen to the dollar. As a general rule, looking around town things that cost about $1 cost 100 Yen so that was a huge hinderance to taking the family out. This morning it is 143 yen to the dollar. Stuff like that makes exporting hard and adds up.

US multinationals are going to take a huge currency hit. Never want the USD this strong.

#17507 1 year ago

If I was a betting man I say we get a rally post fed announcement. Set up is all there.

I don't make those bets though. Buy oil on the dip.

#17510 1 year ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Oil companies? Like Exxon, etc?

Sure - collect a dividend now and you should not only get stability but good growth also.

My favorite is COP.

#17512 1 year ago

You would need a significant negative shock to make new lows here.

Could happen but I still think the S&P will likely bounce.

#17515 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

100 points to go...

Looks like intraday we will get through there on the open. Looks really ugly this morning.

#17520 1 year ago

3636 looks like it will hold today

#17527 1 year ago
Quoted from DropGems:

Fed deadset to over tighten and break economy. Stocks ultimately go lower until guidance changes.

Correct - staying 20% cash

Market is clearly ready to go lower now - Sucks

#17533 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I'm not so sure. After professor Sigel's tirade on Cnbc I think Powell may have to rethink his nose bleed rate hike strategy... I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a bit more dovish in the next meeting. Also Fed Chicago president Evans said he's nervous about the speed of the rate hikes...he cautioned it would be wise to wait for more data. We could be looking at the bottom at least in the near term.

There is no re-thinking. Powell has been clear as he can be. Market is priced for 75 50 and 25 bps for the next 3 meetings. The only thing that will stop the Fed is a clear break on inflation. Pause will come we see that but we need 2-3 months of declining inflation data.

Market won't bounce significantly until the Fed signals it's done or almost done.

#17535 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

True but once the CPI prints a decline the market won't wait for Powell.. It will bounce... It's way oversold. Commodity prices have collapsed, housing prices are falling for the first time in years, the job market will also show sign of softening.. He better tap the brakes or he will go down as the 2nd Arthur Burns.

Almost any good news will cause a bounce right now so ya... will it sustain and what will be the follow up from Powell determines if that was a good selling opportunity.

#17541 1 year ago

Oil stocks holding nicely.. great buy here. New lows for a lot of heavyweights.

It ain't over yet!

#17543 1 year ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

I'm trying a new strategy with my stocks, when I buy the shares I buy puts to protect my downside and sell out of the money calls (which help cover the excess premiums on the puts). I limit my upside to the call price but have no downside risk. Will see how it works out long term.

Its not a strategy you want to have on all the time or long term but it's probably ok short term. Environment is still very negative.

Sold my high yield debt this week also, I think spread could widen further. Sit in money more market fund for a while. Again personal trade only, our don't have much high yield anyway.

#17549 1 year ago

Jobs report Friday

Quoted from RTR:

A couple weeks ago I nibbled on some higher yielding bank preferreds (spread around JPM, SBNY, MS, WFC) which have not done well in the last couple of weeks. Not sure if I should hang on, average in, or dump. Only one of them has a maturity date.
HY bond funds I bought this week look promising. There is def yield out there to have now that TINA finally died.
What is your advice for the bond part of a retiree portfolio? I'm retired, but never really invested much in fixed income.
[quoted image]

Did you buy a high yield bond fund or individual bonds?

I think they are ok but if you buy individual names do your homework on the companies.

We generally keep older clients in investment grade bonds, government bonds and guaranteed term certificates. Small amounts of high yield are ok but we don't recommend big allocations as they can get volatile. Bonds allocations are there for income but also meant to keep portfolio volatility down. Most retired clients are at 60/50 or 70/30 equity to fixed these days though we are tilting to more fixed income with rates being higher now.

#17553 1 year ago
Quoted from RTR:

The bond ETFs are SJNK and SHYG. They have both been hammered this year and now have a 30 day yield in the 7s. Not huge positions, just been buying small lots of each over the last 2 weeks.
The bank preferreds act a little like bonds but only one of them has a maturity date. Some are fixed rate, some floating. Bought them a little too early back in July/august and they are down about 6% now. Currently yield around 6.2%.

Only worry to me in all these really is that corporate rate spreads widen so there is substantial downside risk short term. Smaller positions are ok but. I would personally wait. All should be fine longer term.

Quoted from pinballjah:

My Apple trade seems to be positive no matter the price of the shares between now and June 2024. Although the max profit would only be 6.4% annualized if trade held out to June 2024. If the shares exceed $170 before June 2024, I could likely close the trade early and receive a higher return.
Purchase price: $152.09
$170 calls sold for $22.55 (June 2024 expiry)
$155 calls buy for $23.40 (June 2024 expiry)
[quoted image]

Not sure what the point of holding a stock for 2 years is given a max 6.4% return. If you are convinced on Apple stock buy it on extreme weakness and hold. Apple is not a high risk stock. If you have no conviction buy something else.

#17557 1 year ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

There is no downside risk as I am fully protected with the put. 6.4% is not likely return if stock recovers quicker. If it doesn't, at least I don't lose money on the trade. See what happens. Check back in 1.5 years If I close the trade earlier, will let you know.

I realize no downside but upside is tiny for equity, not much more than corporate paper . I'd rather take the risk and get the reward when the market recovery comes. So much upside when the fed stops raising rates.

Quoted from Zablon:

I feel like i should be buying now, but if nothing is going to go up for the next year or 5, not sure it makes sense. I've been buying land..might be time to start building.

I wouldn't be that negative on equity but real estate can be very lucrative. If you know that better that's a-ok!

#17568 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Best 2 days in the market since March of 2020.
Now it’s 2 steps forward, 1 step back.
Did we miss this massive rebound?
Can’t time the market? How long are you planning to live?
Energy. The Saudis hate us now. See tomorrow announcement.

Market deflating again as expected. I sold a bit for some clients yesterday.

Jobs numbers and CPI next week could take us higher again but we shall have to wait and see!

#17569 1 year ago

Current highest Canadian GIC (Guaranteed Investment Certificate) rates we offer for comparison
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#17572 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Latest inflation indicators were higher than expected so I wouldn't be surprised if cpi is still hot

They were but it takes time for lower material and fuel prices to show up in the economy.

It could very well still be hot but it will start to crack eventually - if not this month then likely next. Housing and retail are also starting to soften.

#17583 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

They are going to purposely slow down supply as Winter demand goes up. The cost of oil going up.

Looks that way.

Need to see a reversal of the lower highs and lower lows we have seen recently. That is key. Given winter is coming I think good odds.

#17586 1 year ago

Jobs number shortly - buckle your seatbelts!

#17588 1 year ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

Glad I bought SU back at the COVID crash for $15.11, nice 12.4% dividend yield. One of my best purchases in a long time.

Oil has essentially been a good call since that crash.

I guess its up to CPI to turn this market around next week. Otherwise it's likely we see more blood on the street.

#17595 1 year ago

Stay out of semiconductors for the time being. It's a terrible sector to be in.

Quoted from iceman44:

Health Care, another plus sector, is about 13%

Healthcare is great defensively and cyclically. Must have and overweight.

#17604 1 year ago
Quoted from TigerLaw:

So, what does this week in front of us look like? It’s earnings season…

CPI will be key

#17612 1 year ago
Quoted from WizardsCastle:

What do you guys think of NIO?

I would not invest in anything based in China period.

Want a good EV pick - RIVN

#17615 1 year ago

Oh I have zero interest in EVs for me. The battery life in sub-zero winter weather diminishes substantially.

I don't have any issue with making money off EVs / EV technology though!

#17626 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Thanks to cpi I'm getting a 8.7% raise!

8%+ inflation is nothing to celebrate but ok.. at least you get to keep up.

Quoted from Lamberger:

hard to say..projected growth for U.S next year 1.5, China 4.5, India 6. No delisting will happen under Biden. The big guy excepted to much money from China already for that to happen. Things may change in 2024.

Chinese delisting directives coming from China, not the US. Chinese companies do not operate under western accounting rules. I would avoid. Lots of other opportunities. No need to go there.

Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Is the Dow going to dip down below 20,000 in the next 2 years? CPI print was hotter than expected. Stocks looking to open in the crapper.

There is a lot of bad news already priced in. Not a panic situation but it would have been nice to get a lower print obvioulsly. Dow 20,000 is not happening barring armageddon.

#17632 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

And... the market makes no sense. After unsurprisingly crashing 600 points at open after the hot CPI data, it has rallied back into 600 point positive territory. Anyone have a crystal ball I can borrow?

Already too much bad news priced in.

Quoted from usandthem:

There's not nearly enough fear out there, which is why inflation continues to soar. People have become so accustomed to bail outs and stimulus that they're not worried and continue to spend like mad. Wealthy business owners and gainfully employed middle class Americans have all benefitted from this (at least on a short-term basis until runaway inflation kicked in and gobbled it up). And why should they be worried? The federal government always seems to be ready for a hand out when the you-know-what really hits the fan.
In addition, the supposed least among us are getting and spending way too many welfare dollars. In the SNAP (food stamps) program alone, a family of four gets $835/mo. That's about $300 more than my family of four spends on groceries each month with our own money. That's 41.5 million Americans living large on unearned grocery buying power. And this doesn't even account for Medicaid and Section 8, which artificially drive up healthcare and rents.
There's just so much government-manufactured income out there with no production behind it that inflation rages.

The fear we saw as kids in the 70's and 80s is probably gone forever. Even more of a social net here in Canada. That said - still a shortage of workers in the market and until that goes away, wage and inflation pressures aren't going anywhere.

#17664 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

It's both but when you see an across the board participation (yesterday was like 83% of the market) in almost all the sectors then you can be surmise it's not blackbox trading. Let's see where we end up today, if we close even or a small loss it would be an encouraging sign that October is indeed the turnaround month.

Technical bounce also but ya

#17665 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

If you are going to ignore the bad news and buy, then why sell in the first place? I just don't understand what moves the market at all.

Short term and daily moves are not what's important (unless you are an active trader). Long term investing is what the vast majority should be focused on.

When the market is down 20-30%, buy all you can - you will do very well over time.

#17685 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I don't think either will matter. We will still have the same Fed and the same circumstances. It's not like the U.S. has the only faltering economy and high inflation right now, this is happening on a global scale. Although a shift in one countries' political leaders can start or stop a panic locally, like we saw in the UK, it won't change the fundamentals.

Who is in power has little to no impact on the markets despite all the rhetoric. These elections are generally tiny short term blips.

Global issues and the pandemic after effects are indeed the culprit of what is happening.

#17687 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

unless those in power are contributing to those global issues
and it's actually not the pandemic after effects, it's the repercussions of our absurd reaction to the pandemic by those in power

Pandemic spending was global and caused the same issues around the world. Labor shortages and inflation are everywhere. Policy in one country can absolutely have economic consequences but they are typically longer term and their influence on markets are even longer term and significantly more muted.

In this case the Federal reserve's failure to raise rates earlier has had far more influence than any government policy.

#17690 1 year ago

Correct - it was (A) an unexpected win and (B) there was a promise of big tax cuts and big deregulation that directly impacted US companies.

Definitely an anomaly.

-1
#17705 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Elections always matter. Couldn’t be a clearer example with Energy policy and its effects on that sector since Day One of the Biden administration.
The rest of Europe, Germany, Italy, the UK etc are in the process of pulling a 180 on Energy policy.
The reality has set in that we not only need ALL of it for living everyday life but it’s also a national security issue.
And no, it’s not “Putins price hike”. We are right where we were before the Ukraine invasion. And Europe will get frozen out this winter.
Combine the horrendous and misguided Energy policies that did a u turn in Jan of 2020, with an increasing structural supply issue all over the world and this is what we get.
What did they think OPEC+ was going to do recently?
“Don’t cut production by 2 million barrels please until AFTER the elections”.
They did it anyhow and “now there will be consequences”. It’s laughable it’s so bad
But I have to thank such stupid policy for huge gains since 2021! Thanks Joe.

Elections matter but they don't change the course of global stock markets. Specific industries will feel a shift in policy absolutely.

Biden has screwed up energy big time but most of the green leaning leaders of the world have. Delusional people promising the world something that doesn't exist.

#17706 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:~$100B of the PPP loans were stolen and $80B+ Covid unemployment money also stolen and I know for fact that a lot more was taken by companies that didn’t need it, weren’t laying off people but took it anyway as a free gift from Uncle Sam.

Of course... Both Republicans and Democrats to blame here too. The free money was flowing like wine the last 2 years and we all pay now. Inflation, deficits and now higher rates.

#17716 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

We now have a worldwide Energy crisis based on the stupid policy decisions of elected leaders around the world, totally agree with that. It’s clear.
Elections are turning that around in Europe now that reality has set in. We are behind the curve now.
The handling of Covid has also led to this inevitable massive inflation and potential Global recession as a result of horrendous policy set by these elected leaders, on all sides.
The regulatory environment?
Is it long term game changing? It hasn’t been in the past. Policies can make you more less competitive, more or less capitalism or socialism.
It matters more today than it did 20 years ago. Our economy is more global and affected by bad policy everywhere. China, India, the Middle East and a multitude of other geo political issues.
Haven’t had an “international” exposure for the past 6 years. Mostly because of policy decisions that have led to poor fundamentals. US companies that sell globally like Apple and MSFT sure.
What sectors and industries are the future winners? Elections and policies do matter
GL

Same - very little global exposure. Just doesn't work well and it certainly doesn't offer the diversification we learned it should in school.

Covid and energy policy in Canada have also been completely mishandled and it's a mess. Current government here is also very anti-oil development and ant-pipeline. Ridiculous policy.

Of course policy matters but elections generally don't. Policy almost always industry specific and longer term.

Tech looks like it's done for the foreseeable future IMO, use rallies to lower exposure.

#17718 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Looks like we are heading into another quarter of “well the earnings aren’t as bad as originally feared”. Thus, the rally to 4,000 and above is on.
Bear market rally? Probably.
Going to be interesting to see what actually happens with what the Fed has already done as these hikes make their way through the economy.
Right now it’s about the two E’s propping the market up. Employment and Earnings
Will the Fed actions finally crush both through demand destruction in 2023?
That’s why we look at it as a “market of stocks”.
Some companies will be affected much less by these hikes. They have already survived Covid and peak inflation. Which ones will perform in 2023 and maintain the “E’s”
Finally, yes “policy matters” and we have to remember that it’s the elected officials that set that “policy”. Thus, because of the huge divide today, elections matter much more today.
We are going to get another rate hike the week before the mid-terms, then the “markets” are going to like the probable outcome as in most mid-term reversals.

Almost certainly a bear market rally.

Fed seems like it will and probably has to crush employment and earnings to break inflation if that continues to be it's goal. Neither has moved much yet.

3 more rate hikes are baked already - need to see inflation come down to change that or at least stop after January.

Santa may not come this year....

#17720 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I think we get two more hikes and then Fed is done. The market is picking up on that sentiment as many sectors of the economy are “deflationary”. Look at professor Jeremy Siegel recent commentary.
Policy matters. See below. [quoted image]

I didn't say policy didn't matter. I said elections don't matter much.

Jeremy Segul said to deploy cash in June, that was the bottom- second 1/2 strong. So far he is wrong.

Commodity inflation is easing but labor costs are not - it's an issue. How much further will the fed go - we will see.

#17735 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

You keep missing my point. Elections matter a lot because they lead to good or bad policy decisions by those elected leaders.
UK, Germany, Italy etc

Presidents get a lot of the blame, and take a lot of the credit, for the performance of the stock market while they are in office. However, the truth is that the president's ability to impact the economy and markets is generally indirect and marginal.

https://www.investopedia.com/presidents-and-their-impact-on-the-stock-market-4587369

Policy does affect specific stocks and industries though as I said.

#17736 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

Fuck ... if we get back to 15% CD's I am out of the market and into CD's
I would be happy collecting 15%

You don't ever want to see 15% again.

#17741 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I’m not going to continue the argument other than to say the president and his party set the entire agenda and policy of a country. When you control ALL of government it matters a lot.
Not that difficult. It’s NOT “marginal”.

Agree to disagree. Its OK.

I have seen plenty of evidence over the last 25 years that support my view. That said, the decision on a new federal reserve chair can absolutely make a huge difference. That is very obvious, especially today.

#17748 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

The size, power and control of government is overwhelming today. And not in a good way

Compared to most countries it's not really though

Quoted from taz:

The big deal is "how" the money is spent. I spent 23 years in the Air Force and a number of years afterwards in Government or Government contractor positions, writing the contracts for most of that period. I have seen waste that will curl your stomach and make you a staunch Libertarian. The Government wastes far more of your tax dollars than you might imagine. It's not intentional, it's just personnel and structural incompetence, and usually the rules developed to make it better, end up making it worse. While in DoD, I would estimate that about 40% of the funds were ineffective at the levels I worked in. Keep in mind that there are different levels in DoD spending, from R&D, Weapon Systems, Operational, Contingency, etc. Some are better than others, but really, all are terrible by the standards of someone spending their own money. That said, due to so many high visibility scandals over the past 40 years and implemented fixes, DoD is better than many other Government agencies. DoD's great sin is having such a large percentage of the pie and the excuses of national security and operational expediency.
Later, I was involved in USAID on the other side (under Dept of State) and got to see waste that was nearly double DoD. Core drill on the palaces some of our state department staff live in and you'll get sick to your stomach. I would guess that they squandered about 75% of their funding in Afghanistan, just ask SIGAR if you want to know more about USAID or DoD waste. The Government is a necessary spending entity, but it is not even close to efficient. The more the Government spends, the more is wasted and it's getting worse. Just wait until we see spending results data on the infrastructure or inflation reduction spending that passed in the past year or so.

Competence is a rare bird. My experience with government is broadly speaking there are very few people there that really know what they are doing.

#17755 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

I am 51 and with all the BS going on feel like I am 71 some days, but I keep my feelings in check and have a pretty good idea on what’s really going on. I still have CD’s though, but they are down in my basement in boxes somewhere.

LOL. The only good CDs IMO.

#17759 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Snap is down 25% in aftermarket - will it roll over into meta? I'm betting it will...

More likely to be taken private IMO.

Definitely worth a punt. I will probably buy a little.

#17764 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I bought THQ for a basket of health stocks
Trading at over a 10% discount to NAV and pays a nice dividend
... for what that's worth

Perfect. Healthcare is a great defense place to invest and it has a great secular trend behind it for some long term growth. We put all clients in 10% health. My favorite health stock has been UNH.

#17770 1 year ago

Careful with Apple.. China situation is not good. Hardware sales could weaken.

#17773 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Our weighting on Apple is only 20% of Aum. A decade of owning and buying on dips.
Buffet and Berkshire is up to 40% on Apple.
We will see a 2 handle in 2023.
Nothing is wrong with China and that relationship despite their own companies challenges. In fact, Apple is a great way to play the growth of China and India
China wants to be the top economy in the world and they aren’t getting there by locking down from the rest of the world. Just the opposite.
The ecosystem is stronger than ever. Rock solid balance sheet, free cash flow, buybacks etc. The train rolls on.
Here’s a reminder, the only time Apple missed earnings in memory was the last quarter of 2018 and they pre announced that miss. An incredible buying opportunity. The Fed pivoted and it was off to the races. Cook said “we have multiple levers to pull on to adjust going forward”. And they did.
The new 49 diameter watch is incredible.
The market rally continues this week.
The reality is setting in that the CPI lagging indicators aren’t as relevant as the leading indicators such as housing and autos.
Earnings are better than feared. That will be the drumbeat going into yr end.
Then we see what 2023 looks like. What does the Fed do? Time to pause and let the unprecedented rate hikes work through the system.
And many Energy stocks making new highs.
Beware, some are at 70 RSI levels. Short term overbought.

We have a ton of Apple also but we trimmed. Next 10 will not be like the last 10. The headwinds are real. 20% of AUM is crazy high.

Company not in trouble but the trade war with China is going to get dialed up and that headline risk, slowing economies and high dollar are real. Stock still trades at a premium to the market.

Bounce in the works I suppose. Long term growth is just not there like it was IMO.

#17780 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I agree with that sentiment, next 5 yrs won’t be close to the last 5. But I think Apple still outperforms. MCD, COST and many consumer staples trade at a higher multiple.
And we don’t know what Apple has in the pipeline for the future to plug into that massive ecosystem.
All things being equal price wise we are getting a 5% yield with the small Div and stock buybacks.
It’s clear that the market is gonna be volatile until the Fed does its “pivot” and the recession is milder than feared.
That’s why I continue to be comfortable with ENERGY. Very low multiples, high dividends and structural problems world wide.

Energy will be fine even with a deeper than mild recession. Historically not much demand destruction in downturns and energy tightness is primarily a supply issue.

Apple is different but I'll be shocked if it doesn't experience the same fate as MSFT and GOOG. You are correct though, Apple is like Nike and Cost and commands a premium valuation. We shall see!

#17781 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Wasn't expecting Alphabet to miss today. Wow.

Not surprised.. Economy is just starting to deteriorate.

Good news is the valuation isn't crazy.

#17789 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

I bet you a nickel the NASDAQ and DJIA close higher today.

When 2 bellwethers are down like they are, unlikley. Can't see the NASDAQ positive today.

Quoted from WeirPinball:

Thinking of picking up some alphabet and Microsoft today on weakness any thoughts?

It's fine if you have a long time horizon, may underperform for a while though. I think it will stay above previous low 219.13.

#17807 1 year ago

I think Apple will be lucky to hold $150 after earnings no matter what they report. Apple is not immune to what is going on.

We shall see.

#17811 1 year ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

How can JEPI afford a 12% dividend? Is this sustainable? Usually, these types of investments have to cut their dividends at some point given the yield. Thanks.

It's a fund, no different than drawing monthly from your own stock account.

#17819 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

Meta should spin off Reality Labs and concentrate on ad business.

Mark Zuckerberg is doing the opposite of what investors told him they wanted. Spending too much on ideas that have highly questionable development time lines and profitability.

Quoted from rai:

Apple is holding up at least, compared to the other big tech stocks.

It is but there is weakness in their earnings also. At least Apple staying on track but China, the economy and the rest of the tech market is likely to keep the stock down.

#17823 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

It’s a covered call ETF. It continually sells covered calls on their holdings and pays out the Premiums as monthly income. I own USOI (oil as. Natural gas futures) and SLVO (silver) that are similar but ETN’s.

Quoted from pinballjah:

Thanks, I guess if you make 12% in dividends but lose 12% in appreciation, not that great. Might be a good one to pick up once it falls a bit further.

You are correct - they pay out pretty much everything they make from writing and dividends (and then some I suspect).

Most of these funds use some leverage also to juice the yield. Good for retirees or in a flat market.

#17825 1 year ago
Quoted from cnuts13:

Alibaba yay or nay? Isnt it better than amazon? How is it 60$?

China political risk is real and significant, don't go there (unless you are a good short term trader).

#17846 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Apple anyone? Phenomenal. No brainer. An economy unto itself
Dummy crowd still doesn’t get it

Best of the FAANG but not doing much better than the S&P this YTD.

20% of AUM in one stock is never wise no matter how good its been.

Quoted from WeirPinball:

maybe I'm too early but I did get some Alphabet yesterday and Amazon today. Long term play unless there is a 10 to 15% quick rally

Great long term play, I think probably a bit oversold. Can definitely nibble at it.

We are not out of the woods, still feels like a bear market rally to me.

#17849 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

I'm not sure what you consider 'not doing much better' than the S&P because it's 20% better than the S&P500 (one year returns) and 210% better over 5 years. If you need to cherry pick a date like YTD it's still 5% better than S&P.
Apple prints money, Ear Pods alone make more revenue than many leading tech companies, Apple has retired almost 40% of their shares outstanding in the past 10 years.
Warren Buffett also has 40% weight in Apple but he doesn't know Jack.

If you every studied portfolio management you would know what I mean.

I'm a holder of Apple (and have been for a long time) but I have trimmed back at $170 because the past is not the future, growth has slowed. Apple stock is only better than the S&P YTD because it spiked 7% Friday.

All good.. It's fine. I just think a big overweight position in the stock is not the way to position yourself going forward and i don't think it will outperform in the future. Maybe I'm wrong, that's what makes a market.

#17855 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Tell Warren Buffet that. It’s approx 45% of Berkshire now
It’s 20% because of the massive outperformance over the years and in Apple’s case “we let Secretariat keep running around the track”
As a CPA as well I have to consider the tax consequences in taxable accounts
And combine a significant overweight on ENERGY the past 18 months it’s worked out quite well. Phenomenal actually.
No need to fix what isn’t broken. Including owning ZERO bonds during that 15% decline this year as well. The worst performance of the 60/40 model in 100 yrs
Bottom line, my clients are extremely happy with their significant outperformance, that’s my goal. I’m just here having fun. Somehow I guess I lucked into over a Billion in aum to date.
Plenty of ways to skin the cat, I don’t comment on how you do it so good luck to you

I'm not permitted to invest for clients like that, I have to follow a clients IPS and KYC guidelines. We can't have elderly clients with low to medium risk tolerance in 100% equity and 30% Apple. Neither my firm or regulators will allow that.

Concentrated portfolios are fine if you have high risk tolerance and don't have to follow portfolio guidelines. Obviously I can do whatever I want for myself.

#17856 1 year ago
Quoted from taylor34:

It's hard for me to see a path where apple really beats the index much the next decade because it's just too big. It's already 7% of the s&p, is it realistic to think it's going keep beating the index?

Highly unlikely and that's my point above. It's a super easy stock to own like JNJ or MCD but the big growth days for the big 6-7 tech companies are probably done. I don't see technology as the leader for the next 5 years either.

I agree with iceman on energy. We are overweight in all portfolios. Those stocks are still cheap.

#17862 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Clearly that's the case. IPS, Riskalye, risk tolerance, age, station in life etc. There are other "bond alternatives". Balancing out the risk. Very few younger clients are 100% equity. What do you do with your low to medium elderly clients and "bonds" that are down significantly this year?
My daughter, who works with me now, was a CFP at Vanguard. Try telling clients, "don't worry, stick with the S&P 500 and our bond allocation and it will work out over the next 25 years".
Here is the Vanguard Total Bond fund. BND. Down 17% for the year. What have you guys done to "balance the risk"? Just curious.
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BND

Most clients are 60-90. Asset allocation has to match KYC pretty closely. "Bond alternatives" is not a thing in regulated portfolio management. Portfolio concentration also a big no no.

Cash/money market was a good place to park bond money. We were mostly short term bond anyway. Was not down that much.

Quoted from iceman44:

It's easy to own JNJ in a no growth environment, but i see better opportunities. MCD? Trading at 27x and a 2.25% yield. I don't think so.

Below is why MCD is a good long term hold. Like Apple - always trades at a premium.
pasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image (resized).png

#17866 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Apple never used to trade at a premium until folks figured out what the "services" opportunity equated to. Massive EBITDA
Personally, i think the risk/reward is to the downside for MCD and since it trades a higher multiple and lower yield, i'll take Apple and the total return all day every day. It will significantly outperform stocks like MCD for the next decade. Just think there are much better options right now.
Seem to always move the focus back to the value in Energy.
The issue i have with Cash/money market is that as an RIA and out of principle we don't get paid to manage large amounts of cash. Even as rates moved towards 4% on a 6 month T-bill this year, which i'd agree, short duration is the only place to be, we haven't charged fees on "cash/t-bills". The yield curve won't stay inverted long term and that can reverse.
But we do things differently that most firms out there. Starting at .80 basis points and down from there we integrate estate planning (Wills, Trusts, LLC's), tax planning (don't have to say, "consult your tax advisor") and financial planning for that fee.
There are many different business models, putting the client first. Since it's my firm i get to set the rules and procedures.

I wouldn't buy MCD right now either but if you buy on big dips it's a solid long term hold.

We get paid on total market value of portfolios so holding whatever money market fund is fine. We do will and estate planning and financial planning also with regional specialists. All included in fees.

Because I work for a large company we have to stick with what regulators demand - asset allocation and KYC guidelines have to be followed.

#17871 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

Fed day today. Looking for them to mess with things again.
I mentioned it once before but if one was told that this year the big boys at the top of the indexes META would be down 72%, GOOGL 37%, MSFT 32%, NVDA 53%, TSLA 43%, NFLX 51% and the best of them AAPL down 19% and let’s throw in Carthie’s ARKK down 60%, with this info what would one think the SaP would be down as a whole? Probably not just under 20% like it is now. Right?
It’s an amazing shift going on right now. Is the Fed winning? How much more does the Fed want things to go? Anyone buying a new home? Anyone? Maybe a little more is needed right now and then sit back and let things sink in and see who things go? We will see.

Fed is determined to bash inflation into the ground. Count on very hawkish comments and don't buy more tech yet - new lows, don't try to catch a falling knife.

Fed screwed all of us by leaving monetary policy too loose for too long. Now we have to feel the pain of more and faster tightness. Terrible.

Cash equivalents, energy, health, staples and defense.

#17886 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

I’m not talking about regulations or whatnot.
What if you owned Apple in a taxable account and it ‘grew up’ so to speak 15-20x gains. You don’t like being overweight but the cost to sell is not insignificant. It’s let’s call it LT gains maybe 80-90% of the net sale is taxable at 20% plus 3.8% (net income surtax) and you can throw another 5-8% state income tax on that.
If selling $10k of Apple stock you could have to write a check to the government for $2500-$2700. That’s a guaranteed 25% (+/-) realized loss. Want to sell $400k that’s $100K (loss to tax) straight to Uncle Sam. That’s money out of the market so you can ‘get away’ from Apple stock. So the stocks you fly to had better be worth the tax bill.

For sure large positions can happen either through transferred ESOPs or extraordinary growth. You can always make an exception for those things but we never let client positions grow to 20% or 30% of AUM. Clients who have positions like this just have to sign off on higher risk because of the concentrated position.

#17887 1 year ago

Market and Fed seemed to do exactly as expected. More pounding of the economy to come.

0.75 bps hike, hawkish comments, drop in market.

#17892 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

no doubt, can't find any news and they beat the e - don't get it. Surprised by the big downturn after the fed, did the market actually think they would pivot? Thought it might even go up a bit with the 75 basis points, that it was already baked in. Guess not

Devon - Lower production outlook and higher capex than expected. Disappointing report.

Fed - It's all about the outlook. He indicated higher peak rates needed and higher for longer possible. Very hawkish.

#17898 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

What are you recommending to do right now?
What are you telling clients?

Nothing different. Sitting on some cash and money market /guaranteed certs in all accounts. New clients are still 60% cash+. Got to wait I think.

Staying overweight energy and health in particular.

I don't see the market turning until you start to see breaks in inflation and employment. Can't fight the fed or the tape.

Can definitely write some calls into strength.

What are you doing?

#17902 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Gonna be a long slog now
Agree. Can’t fight the Fed
But the Fed hasn’t gotten it right yet. Thinking they have to overshoot because they were so wrong last year.
Killing jobs and the economy the answer?
Why not wait and see how the past hikes play out? Afraid to be criticized again

Only way to kill the inflation monster is the kill demand and tight labor market. Not an easy task to kill it once it's out of the bottle. The rise in markets in October did nothing but help the fed continue full steam ahead. Great thing is this is not a financial crisis so there are places to hide and there are stocks and companies doing very well.

Quoted from PhilGreg:

Oh well, still up 36% since the coach gave out the DVN tip a few months back...

For sure - oil is oil. All the stocks have done well.

Quoted from taylor34:

I saw this graph on Twitter and thought it was very appropriate to show how misaligned things are valuation wise compared to historical periods.
https://twitter.com/darioperkins/status/1587748755692032001?s=21

Interesting.

Inflation really hasn't come down yet - early signs are there but I unfortunately the economy is still running pretty hot.

#17903 1 year ago
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#17904 1 year ago
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#17912 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

6 month T-Bill pays over 4% right now. Some would say just go there and let the dust settle with everything going on.

Next few months could be messy.

If you can get 4-5% and sleep at night for the next 6 months, may be gold for some people.

Otherwise pick away slowly if you have cash. I think markets will look much better next year this time.

#17920 1 year ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

It’s amazing in these times the best economic policy to fight inflation is to increase interest rates to reduce demand and increase unemployment (reduce demand further).

There is no other way other than government fiscal restraint but that won't happen and it's very slow.

The Fed mistake was made long ago with too much easy money for too long. Now we all pay the price.

#17925 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

ONE issue that affects most everything INFLATION oriented is the cost of ENERGY. The price of getting food to the table, goods delivered all over the world, services etc.

Energy policy around the world is causing this and it's definitely a root cause of inflation. Oil goes into everything and it moves everything. The ideas that we can go "green" in short order is pure political fantasy. Unfortunately governments keep pushing "green solutions" rather than oil and pipeline development. Pure insanity.

Diesel is especially worrying in North America - very very short supply

China re-opening is going to tighten things even more. Oil screaming higher today just on a whiff of that possibility.

#17940 1 year ago

Better off to leave the tech alone for now. If you have long term money in GOOG, AAPL, AMZN etc you can leave it but don't expect much performance in the short term. More cyclical than people believed and Covid distorted all their earnings then and now.

Big layoffs at Meta may be a good sign that they are jumping off the crazy train and reversing course. We shall see!

#17949 1 year ago
Quoted from cnuts13:

Oil is where wall street wants all the suckers to park $$$. Minimal gains long term I think

I guess I'm a sucker, all the way to the bank.

Long term fundamentals for oil have not looked this good in a long time.

#17963 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

It doesn't seem very outside of the normal crypto swings. I stake ATOM, it's dropped about 12% in the past few days, but it also gained about 45% in the past few months. I always buy these crypto dips.

New 52 week lows - it's not good. It affects the stock market also - contagion risk. Especially the Nasdaq.

I stay clear of crypto and tell clients to do the same. It's definitely a great trading vehicle but it's not an investment.

#17967 1 year ago
Quoted from ReplayRyan:

Finally a better than expected CPI print. Perhaps a market bottom is in?

Too soon to say, one number and a trading day don't make a trend but it's good to finally see a break in CPI. Hoping!

#17970 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

As someone said recently, elections matter. But so does the data. I have stocks that have jumped 10% this morning, that's crazy.

Everything matters but politics - empirically not that much.

#17981 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Darn, I sold NVDA too early today at around 11 AM....shoulda, woulda, coulda... Oh well. I've been waiting for this day but the meteoric rise in some of the tech names was wholly unexpected.
Edit: if Powell does another .75 this rally could run out of steam pretty fast

NVDA chart looks like the bottom already put in. I think number today gives the fed the green light to go 50 and that should be bullish into Christmas.

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Quoted from WeirPinball:

Remember the target for inflation is 2% - we are far from that. Hopefully it will continue down, but the pain train is long from over.

That is the target but if the economy starts crumbling badly, you can bet that target will be changed.

#17983 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

The Fed meets again in early Dec
They have closed down the party on every other rally thus far.

You are right but I still think we will get 50 instead of 75 and that will push rally through December.

Timing is way too hard - but picking away with cash has been working well.

#17999 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Boeing has been a terrible disappointment to me,. It's my portfolio's largest concentration. With that said I don't know whether to cheer you on or caution you, I really don't...Just use some tight stops. This thing has been bucking the trend as of late.

A lot of Boeing specific issues. Stock was dead money long before the pandemic hit.

We have a $170 target on it. I would look elsewhere to invest.

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#18001 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I don't know, short term it's anyone's game...but longer term it does look clearer. Being one of a duopoly of aircraft manufacturers with 4400 jetliners on back order while almost half of its profits coming from long term US government service contracts does signal that there are better days ahead for this stock.

Longer term should be fine. Clients did well with it through most of the last decade but it's never recovered from the pandemic and lots of cost / supply chain issues. Once they iron that out it will look better.

In terms of US defense contracts - I think LMT is a more consistent performer.

#18014 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

You have to wrap your head around the energy rise because even if it’s much higher it’s still cheap compared to most everything else in the market. Right now the best managed companies are paying down debt and doing share buybacks. They are being super careful of expanding production and are likely not going to dig their way to loses like in previous years. They are smart now after years of mistakes.

All true and it's still very under-owned and still makes up a small percentage of the S&P in terms of weight. Lots of room to grow.

G7 stockpiles are all historically at very low levels also - oil is going higher IMO.

#18020 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:Reminds me of the dot com bubble days - same shit, different vehicle

Thankfully I never put client any funds into crypto. It never felt good and I don't need to invest in everything.

#18033 1 year ago

Many oil stocks overbought - due for a pullback. All good. We will see new highs in these stocks this winter.

#18060 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Wind and solar will never matter except single homes - Try running LA's power grid with wind/solar and see how big the farms would have to be - and where you going to store for when they aren't producing? Not enough raw materials to make all the batteries needed. Nuclear is the only alternative (at least right now)

Yep, most renewables aren't able to offer the baseload power. We need more nuclear but can't happen unless there is a big cut in the regulatory process.

Quoted from iceman44:

OPEC + confirmed the 2 million barrel cut through the end of 2023 and didn't rule out further cuts.
They are in control now and want the price maintained higher.
I wonder who planted that BS story? Draw your own conclusions. The dynamics and fundamentals haven't changed.

A fantastic buying opportunity!

#18074 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

sounds like a good environment for dividend stocks

Yep - oil, dividends and yes I'll say it.. bonds.

#18115 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I won’t comment on the choices your government has made.
And there are many good reasons people are voting with their feet and uhauls getting the F out of dodge and coming here.
It’s also why the western parts of Oregon and Washington want to exit the BS.
Mic drop

Meh - Not everything is wonderful , look at the power disaster that is Texas LOL.

Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

So how about that stock market .............

I thought that was the topic.

#18121 1 year ago
Quoted from RTR:

Oil. 10 year chart is shit. 5 year is shit. 1 year chart is stellar, but what will make next 5-10 years look stellar? A lot of things seem to have converged just right to give us this run up. Re-rating up while most other sectors are re-rating downward? New kind of oil that everyone willing to pay more for? Oil prices go up more and stay? Feel like I missed it. If only I had listened to Iceman or kool1 earlier! I own some XLE (that's the chart I referenced) but that's the only direct exposure and it is underweight in my portfolio.
So - should I buy today (today in the broad sense), what should I buy and why?

It's not too late IMO - I am still adding overweight oil exposure to new client accounts today. Follow Eric or just buy the ETFs.

He updates what he is thinking regularly!

https://twitter.com/StreetSignsCNBC/status/1594899454834126849?s=20&t=AYdLXRJj5h9Ts-nDq5-ZQg
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1 week later
#18126 1 year ago
Quoted from RTR:

What companies or ETFs specifically are you adding?
I read the article by Nuttall. It seems to hinge on the cuts to Russian oil output, China demand increasing, US shale operators possibly cutting 2023 production targets, and potential OPEC+ cuts if prices continue to fall.
I can see oil staying high and maybe going higher if OPEC can maintain their grip on output and US producers keep production constraints in place. But some of those things may change.
Who knows, maybe US policy will change? I don't think a 5 year bull run in oil will be politically survivable for either party.

XLE is super easy - little dip in the market to buy if you don't want to think too much.

We are long COP, XOM, SU, CNQ, CVE, ERF, CVX. Also long a number of midcaps.

US needs to refill it's reserves which will put a floor on oil for a while. When China picks up look out. Lockdowns have kept demand down big time.

#18130 1 year ago

Big Christmas present from J Powell today.

Enjoy!!

#18134 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Apple will hit $200 in 2023 as headwinds become tailwinds

Seems unlikely given it already trades at a premium multiple.

Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

I mentioned this before but I am still amazed at how this year changed the SaP 500 make up. It was very top heavy and still is but things are getting leveled out.

Reversion was inevitable. That's another reason oil looks so attractive, still has a ways to go from the insane low weighting of 2020.

#18139 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I wouldn't touch the broken business that is META. A lot of people have gotten caught in that "value trap".
NVDA, TSLA, AMD longer term winners.
NVDA has a 52 multiple. I'll take TTD instead right now.
MCD 28, COST 37. AAPL 23. China becomes a major tailwind for both Apple and Energy.
Apple hit $183. I believe it deserves the higher multiple and will re-rate higher on par with MSFT as the ecosystem continues to grow and more revenue streams plug into it. An "Apple ONE" strategy would take them there now.
Plus the demand for the iphone is 4-1 right now due to the China lockdowns and supply constraints and people should simply fast forward to Q1 because of that.
Google, Apple, Microsoft. Fortress balance sheets, massive FCF, stock buybacks and diversified revenue streams.`
We shall see. 2023 will be even more of a "Stock pickers" market as earnings continue to get revised downward for many of the S&P 500 companies.
Energy now makes up 6% or so of the 500 but over 11% of the earnings.
I still see significant upside for the Energy stocks in 2023 even with Oil at these levels. OPEC+ will make sure it stays above this level. When you look around at what to buy i keep coming back to ENERGY. Anybody want MCD at 27 x?
In addition, the "softer landing" is on the way in 2023. The US economy and consumer has proven to be resilient. Thanks to Powell exercising some restraint, it appears they don't actually want to drive the economy into the ditch.

Apple is still primarily a hardware company so it should not trade the same as MSFT. It's close enough and premium valued now. I say it will underperform the market in 2023 even with China coming back 100% - which still could be a long while off.

It is a stock pickers market for sure though. Oil will continue to look good.

TSLA stock is broken, valuation too high and technically looks terrible. Stay away. Competition coming fast.

I would still remain cautious. Rates can stay high for a while and more damage and earnings revisions are coming.

#18141 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I disagree, that's the mistake that analysts keep making with Apple. With the flip of a switch they could turn into an Apple ONE all services platform that includes the phone. The Apple car, human capital, AI, health care and other initiatives in the pipeline we don't know about makes Apple deserving of a higher multiple. Along with the "brand" alone.
China can't afford to lockdown forever. At least by March, springtime if not sooner.
TSLA is def too "cloudy" right now but they aren't just a "car company" and the margins they generate blow away the competition.
I'm looking for the Santa Claus rally and then getting really "cautious" ahead of Q1. Q1 could be very volatile and ugly.
Same strategy i foresee in 2023, mostly dividend payors along with an option strategy to add to the total return. But i like
A range of 4100 to 4800 at best by year end 2023. Of course all subject to change given geo political issues etc.

Numbers don't lie, Apple is primarily a hardware company (75-80%). Until they "flip the switch" and show the world the revenue it's just talk. Apple car business has been rumored for years, nothing. When analysts talk about the "pipeline we don't know", every tech company has that.

Apple deserves a premium valuation and it has it. Good core holding for sure but nothing special in 2023.

TSLA margins will come under pressure with competition coming fast. It's a car company. Deserves a premium and has it now, and then some.

We always agree on oil though!

Will be interesting to see what happens in 2023.

#18148 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I don't expect to make the generational gains like i have over the past decade, BUT i really like my chances of "outperformance" with Apple in 2023 in comparison with other "big cap tech".
That's what makes a market, you can call it a "hardware" company by mistake, it's not a typical "hardware" company and that is why the market agrees with me and affords it a higher valuation multiple. It understands that concept. It's both a growth and value stock that also looks like a "consumer staple".
Apple is not "every tech company". They have outperformed "every tech company" in 2022 and will likely do it again in 2023, especially in some sort of recession. Other consumer staples and Utilities are historically overvalued.
I like people like yourself being wrong about Apple again. It's what makes a market and keeps the lid on over exuberance. In fact, the contrarian sentiment is a good thing right now. Warren Buffet and i would agree with that. . Keep betting against Apple, that hasn't worked out so well and won't in the future.
As for Tesla we will see how it plays out. I'm not buying any of the EV makers/autos. So many better options out there.

The big outperformance to the market we have seen the last 10 years will not repeat over the next decade. If your expectation is that Apple will outperform other tech stocks, you have a chance. The hoards of Apple fans like you alone should keep the stock at a premium valuation but tech is going to lag the market in 2023. That's my point and I don't see your $200 target any time soon.

Keep in mind Apple is still our #1 tech holding. It's just been trimmed back for the reasons I outlined. Market weight, nothing more except for people who don't want to pay tax.

The angry Tesla fan / investor brigade has been crushed this year. I think the stock could go lower. It's a car company.

#18154 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I don't expect it to repeat with Apple or any other stock for that matter over the next decade. I'm sure there will be some giant winners like a TTD et al.
My point is that "tech" has already been beaten down, Apple less so, and i think tech like MSFT and AAPL, possibly GOOGL are exactly what should outperform in 2023 as the FED halts, the $$ drops, the 10 yr drops, the "soft landing" arrives etc. and tailwinds kick in. You get a combination of some growth and relative value.
As you probably know since Apple is your #1 tech holding, the worldwide installed user base is 1.8 Billion and likely to top 2 Billion in 2023.
It's the additional revenue annuity streams being dropped into that very "sticky" user base that matters long term. Don't need the past 10 yrs of growth, not going to get it, but the visibility of what you get in terms of FCF is why it's still a great stock to own for the next decade.
Not to mention the fact that they own the millenial and Gen Z markets. Government, anti-trust and ESG are the main concerns for Apple, Microsoft and Google. Look at the issues Microsoft is having trying to add ATVI. I rate these concerns very low however.
MSFT has higher margins with a maturing cloud business however and more competition there. Less visibility but solid nonetheless.
Management at all 3 companies are stellar, along with the human capital present at those places.
Good debate, we should always challenge our thesis and ideas, it's how we get more solid conviction . Mr. Market can be a humbling animal at times!

Tech has been beaten down but it can go lower, don't kid yourself. It's cyclical and a recession could see cuts in spending both from consumers and enterprise. Apple will fair better but tech in general is not the place to be.

People always use the word "sticky" with Apple but people can chose to keep their iphone another year or two or not upgrade their computer. With Apple's P/E you are paying for growth and sticky doesn't equal growth in revenue and it certainly does nothing for higher costs.

Loved Apple for years but this year has made me realize the tech party is on pause for now.

#18161 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

So now After we hit 4100 he is leaning to not have a large pullback and lean towards 4300-4400. And has been saying he thinks 2023 won’t be choppy bad and then flat and actually be alright. We will see.

I would agree with that. Market bottom is in barring any black swan events (always the case).

I am adding on weakness for cash balances.

Quoted from iceman44:

I don't buy bitcoin, and if you do, then that's on you.
Seems like a shitload of big $$ players shit the bed on that call didn't they?
Don't want to get into some bitcoin nonsense here either

Yup - glad I never got into that though I did make some good money buying and selling a miner.

#18169 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

Yeah miners. I like it. I like it. Miners across the board “look to be” setting up for a nice multi year run. A person I follow watches Miners and said to sell off positions last April since they may be approaching a market top. He sold off most of his he held since 2015. I fortunately sold off all my GDX and GOLD then. Now he thinks miners are bottoming again and are working now to set up for a run like they had from 2015 on. We will see. And yes copper “should” do well in the years ahead. You did mentioned COPX before and Will give it another look to add to my SILJ GDX GOLD I bought back into.

Gold is due for a good rally - lower dollar and crypto should give it a boost.

Gold Royalty trusts > Gold producers

#18172 1 year ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Isn't that the truth. I'm sitting on a stockpile of silver rounds I bought a year ago expecting them to go up with inflation. I did not expect the dollar to rise and keep them in check.

Rate cycle up is almost done. That should help.

I'm not a gold guy but it looks good here.

#18178 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

Yes Ice I also feel certain “beaten down” high growth stocks could easily rise 30,40,50% or more in the next year or two. This time around it won’t be 100 of them at a time though like 2020 into 2021. Which ones will run?? Hmmmm

The names that make moneyand continue to grow are far more likely to bounce. If profitability is years away I think those names will lag badly.

#18180 1 year ago
Quoted from DropGems:

Just buy Arkk here. Yea it’s a total meme but it will give you exposure without picking individual dumpsters and it will meme out and rally giving you that high beta upside. Been selling csps on it the whole time in the $30’s range.

I don't particularly love Cathie Woods management style. Her team seem blinded by the long term stories but ignore market reality and valuations. I wouldn't invest with her, high flyers are not the place to be at this time.

#18184 1 year ago
Quoted from DropGems:

Yea she sucks but the fund is hammered and it’s a trendy bellwether for high beta and memes so it’s safer than buying individual names like Roku etc and praying if you want the exposure.
I have no idea what will outperform. The DJI stocks just went on a massive run. Oil is toppy. I’ve squeezed them all. Been back looking at smashed growth stuff.

Roku LOL. The big issue with ARK is they invest in companies with no profits or insane valuations (even now). Earnings, dividends and steady ships matter a lot right now and I just think it's dead money for the time being.

Oil is not toppy at all - dip is a good buy. China reopening will happen.

#18188 1 year ago
Quoted from hank35:

I know this has been asked many times, but regarding oil, which ones seem to be a buy now? I currently own FANG and XOM

Oil dip is temporary - Oil stocks holding up very well. That tells you big money is continuing to move in to the sector. Stay long. China reopening will happen.

FANG and XOM are great.

Take a look at COP and CNQ.

#18193 1 year ago
Quoted from DropGems:

short xle. Oil ded for now.

I'm not a short term trader but the weakness will not last. There is a $70 floor - US strategic reserves need to be refilled and that is the level for doing so. Don't expect any giant moves down from here.

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