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Franklin, TN
1 year later
3 weeks later
Quoted from Oaken:It sits at NAV until a deal is announced.
My guess: it is dead money for 6-9 months.
I doubled up and am sitting at $20.79 average now. Glutton for punishment but seemed like a fairly low risk place for some cash to hang out.
Can’t believe I held through it hitting low 30’s with no deal and didn’t sell. 
Quoted from BenetBoy78:Question. How do you adjust your portfolio before September 11? What would you invest in should nuclear suitcase bombs be detonated in major Financial hub cities across the world? Where would you put your investment money?
Sorry if this has been discussed previously. But thanks for kind advice.
Beans, rural property, and water filtration cartridges
2 months later
Quoted from MrBally:Costco is usually 10 to 15 cents a gallon lower than the lowest priced stations in the area they are located. Lines are usually very long. So you save a buck or two per fill-up.
But my time is worth more than that so I go to Arco, Sinclair or Chevron.....
You and your fancy gas!
Quoted from Friengineer:There are two tech like companies who have made automatic jerk off machines that sync with your favorite videos. That tech plus VR will only get better.
Don't ask me how I know this just assume the worst!
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1 week later
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:I went big on DIS a couple weeks ago because their profits were up, but then it took a crap because the market was only looking at subscriber numbers for Disney+, which were slowing. Sure hope it heads back northward, even if it takes a year
I've owned DIS since 2012. I consider it a hold at the moment. I don't view it as cheap yet at 38x forward earnings. Lots of good plans for 2022-24 that will move the stock up if it all works out, but there is a significant execution risk over that time too.
Quoted from Roostking:Great points for sure and while realizing AAPL wasn't going to make me rich overnight, it's kind of difficult to watch a recently purchased stock slide when you buy, and then come right back up, after sold.
Just gotta keep watching and learning..
Not sure how old you are, but if you are under 50 work on developing some solid core holdings with 80-90% of your portfolio. Broad based ETFs, maybe a handful of quality individual stocks, like Apple, and just forget about those. Don’t even think about selling them. Just watch them. Set the dividends to reinvest until you are more comfortable reinvesting any cash yourself. Think of this part of your portfolio in terms of 3-5 year to even longer holding periods.
Keep 5-10% in cash for and whatever is left over you can use to trade more often and learn how that works a little better.
My biggest regrets in investing are usually premature selling. Biggest hits are very boring - sitting on XLK, MSFT, DIS, AAPL, GOOG, HIG, SPY, AMZN, MAA, JPM, and others for years and years.
Quoted from BRONX:I see your point and aware of at&t spin-off. At&t will cut there dividents naturally and shares should drop due to spin-off. I'm calculating this investment as 3 companies now, potentially 3 dividents checks, and upside of the other 2 because they are hidden value traps burried deep in at&t balance books? Not sure though. Getting hard to find screaming deals nowadays on wall st. Everything is a nosebleed prices
I’m taking a chance on some long T and DISCA calls with dates past when the transaction likely happens. The $24-25 July calls are pretty cheap for T and sort of cheap for DISCA and you would get most of the upside if there is any. The market has to warm up to the deal as more details come out though.
It’s speculative though. Both companies will have a shit ton of debt post transaction. Lots of people are rotating T out of their portfolio bc they were in it for the dividend. Not sure what will happen but will be interesting to watch.
1 week later
Quoted from loneacer:Ouch for Docusign. That's another one in the bucket with TDOC as stocks I never understood the value on. I posted multiple times when TDOC was at 180-200 that the valuation made no sense. It did proceed to around 300, but is under 100 now. Now it's starting to actually sound reasonable. TDOC is actually below it was when lockdowns started, but DOCU is well above even with this 30% haircut tonight.
I have the TDOC blues.
1 week later
Quoted from Friengineer:I didn't really notice except gas prices which can be explained by the new government administration.
Not sure this is true. He nixed a proposed pipeline, but has been issuing drilling permits at a pretty rapid pace, angering the environmental portion of his base.
c_jLBGov7XgX7Excerpt from link:
"Biden administration has issued more permits for oil and gas drilling on public land per month than the Trump administration did in its first three years, according to a new analysis of federal data."
Quoted from Pin-Pilot:And yet the price of gas has gone up more than $1.50 since he took office.
Tough comp when you look at early/mid pandemic prices vs current boom time/4.2% unemployment. I would think pre-pandemic to be the better comp. Keeping in mind oil prices have other forces at work too and the jump is not just happening in the USA.
4 weeks later
T has had a nice little run since December. I bought some 3/18/22 $22 calls that were cheap and have done well, but time is running on them. Anyone have an opinion on where T goes in the short term?
My apologies for interrupting with a straight stock question...
I'm a big Apple fan too. They are a core holding and I never even think of selling. This chart of just their AirPod sales from 2020 is a little dated but still unbelievable. Keep in mind the 23B in sales is an estimate for the AirPod rev as Apple does not break them out.
Full disclosure - I thought AirPods were dumb as hell when they came out but now my wife and I both have a pair.
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/n5m2xp/oc_airpods_revenue_vs_top_tech_companies/
Quoted from jester523:I still think they are dumb, but I'm glad others don't since I own the stock.
I only think they are dumb when one falls out of my ear.
Any opinions on boring old T? Market seems to be warming up a little to the Discovery/Time Warner transaction, lifting shares about 20% since a month ago. Options seem to indicate $27.xx is where it's headed right now. Not sure what to do with these 3/18 calls rn. Take the money? Wait until 4Q earnings report on 1/26?
Quoted from Oaken:I think the T DISC deal is a debt bomb but hey, as long as it blows up in someone else’s face, there is money to be made.
Completely agree. Just looking to get out in the best shape possible. I was underwater on a large block of long held commons and have (at least on paper) bailed myself out with the calls. I like the dividend, but there are safer places to get dividends.
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:True
Maybe if he was a little more respectful and had not started off his post with "I’d just like to remind all the dick swingers"
I am done with the drama in this group, still going to participate but will ignore the noise.
I took the dick swinging thing as a compliment. Did I misinterpret?
Quoted from nwpinball:ATVI up 25% today. How does that work when a company is being bought out? Is there an agreed upon stock price that you receive Microsoft shares for? I'm trying to understand the profit motive in buying it after the announcement.
ATVI closed at $82 and the all cash deal is $95 a share. Leaves $13 a share or 15.8% on the table if you sell now. Risk is that the deal falls through or gets stopped by regulators. If the deal continues to progress, that delta will close over time.
In today's market a 15% guaranteed gain is nothing to sneeze at. But of course it isn't guaranteed. If the deal falls through ATVI would quickly fall back to it's pre-deal share price unless there is another buyer out there. That said, MSFT has a $3B deal breakup fee to pay ATVI if the deal gets stopped by regulators so they are prob confident it will go through.
Sitting on some long ZNGA $3 calls I bought prior to TTWO buy out. The TTWO offer is $9.86 and ZNGA trading at 9.04, leaves approx 9% on the table if I sell now. Also, ZNGA has until 2/24 to explore other offers so the price could go up. Or down if the deal falls through.
But to WaddleJrJr 's point you have to be willing to sit on this money until the deal is close to closing if you want all the juice from the orange and it's not risk free. Complicating things is that it is not an all cash deal. You get $3.50 cash plus $6.36 in TTWO stock although I am not sure what happens if TTWO stock fluctuates prior to deal close. Hard to value what's in the bag...
1 week later
1 week later
Quoted from kvan99:Things are not looking great...now a half point raise in March is baked in. Taming inflation and not causing a recession is not as easy as it sounds. Some parts of the economy respond faster and harder other parts don't...it's hard to nail a soft landing. Lots of headwinds.
https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135
Good article. Living through all of that makes me remember that super low rates are not the norm. Bringing things back under control might not be pretty. Yikes.
Scary to imagine what a 4 or 5% fed funds rate would do various areas of the market that are addicted to low interest rates.
Quoted from NicoVolta:Might get bumpy, but perhaps no need to run for the hills…
https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/will-a-single-rate-hike-kill-the-bull-market
Agree and I wasn't suggesting rates are going to 5%. Just that since 08, we have all become Sweet Summer Children to some extent in regards to the low rate environment and the long bull markets.
I don't think Winter is coming. Of course that is the point of being a Sweet Summer Child...
Quoted from kvan99:What a circus this market has become....wtf!
Cash..cash..cash. only safe ave
It's nuts. A few months ago "cash is trash" was the prevailing wisdom.
Quoted from DropGems:Cash is usually always trash though except on really shitty market days.
YTD my cash has outperformed my stocks by 5%. Unfortunately, I am only 10% cash...
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:Spread your butt cheeks gang.
Monday just got real ugly. Pres spoke on Ukraine and invasion, it's already taking effect 20 min later.
Stocks will be just fine Monday (President's Day). Tuesday will be a different story.
1 week later
Quoted from iceman44:I’m not “mystified” as to why but it appears the DVN CEO is?[quoted image]
Gee, if I were a DVN shareholder, I guess I would be asking the CEO why he isn't producing oil at the company's max capacity while oil is at such a high price? Why is he waiting on anyone at all to ask him to do it? Seems like CEO 101...
Quoted from Roostking:Given the current atmosphere, was it a good idea to shut down domestic evergy production? Want to make sure I have the full picture.
I don't think oil production has been shut down by any stretch. Heck, the DVN CEO says he could make more if someone would just ask.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/01/27/oil-gas-leasing-biden-climate/
"But one year after announcing a halt to any new federal oil and gas leasing, Biden has outpaced Donald Trump in issuing drilling permits on public lands. After setting a record for the largest offshore lease sale last year in the Gulf of Mexico, the Interior Department plans to auction off oil and gas drilling rights on more than 200,000 acres across Western states by the end of March, followed by 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet, off the coast of Alaska."
Quoted from Zablon:It's because they are trying to blame it on not letting them expand drilling areas. Rather than just pump more where they already have permission. As if they need to wait for permission to produce more oil. It's always excuses with oil companies. Anything to keep the prices up. Most of if not the only reason oil was so low for so long was because ofthe intentional price fix diving that was happening overseas.. It had very little to do with the administrations before, during, or after.
They have millions of acres of undeveloped leases in effect that haven't even been drilled yet. And great success with the ones they are pumping.
Adding leases with proven reserves is a cheap and tricky way to fluff that balance sheet without ever having to drill. They def aren't running out of places to pump.
Quoted from Oaken:Good, but not good enough.
Owned for about a year and for most of that time thought I got in pretty good at $210. Now a year later - it's at $205. I was glad they had good enough earnings and guidance to trade sideways. Sideways is the new up for growth rn, lol.
I'm loaded up, but if it goes below 200 will consider more or maybe some long calls. CRM has great sticky revenue, superb products, zero debt, good cash flow, and room to run. I think they are a great long term hold.
1 month later
Quoted from NicoVolta:Tip: If you’d like to use inflation to your advantage and lock up a maximum $10,000 (or $20,000 for couples) for a guaranteed 6.5% APR over 11 months (sell April 1, 2023)… then visit treasurydirect.gov to load up on I-bonds before the end of April.
Another bonus: Free from state income tax.
Extra bonus: If you hold them until July 1, 2023… you’ll earn 7.2% APR for those 14 months.
(note these figures should have the 3-month interest penalty already factored in, so this is pretty much the actual amount you will earn)
Pretty sweet deal for holding 20k. The Treasury Direct website looks like it was built in the 90's but was easy peasy to make an account and buy the I bonds. Great tip, probably the only one guaranteed to make money on this thread, lol.
1 week later
Quoted from Zablon:Been watching this too...just not really sure where to jump in on it, as everything seems like its headed back down to January.
January of 2019?
Picked up some NFLX on the 3 day rule today at $212. It was my best performer this fine Friday, lol.
Also picked up some GOOG, JEPI, VFH, VZ (after the 6% post earnings slide), July calls on MU, 1/24 calls on PINS.
Not sure what to do with my CRM holding. Thought I was good at average cost of about $208 and now its yuck.
Generally if you wait another week or two and replicate my trades (or short them all Monday) you will be guaranteed success. I'm rarely wrong but almost always late or early....
Quoted from Zablon:? Jan 26-28 22. Only slightly higher than March 22. We are pretty much there, kind of waiting to see if we hit March at this point. Granted I am basing that on my own investments. It looks like we are back where we started at the beginning of the year. I'm trying to decide if this is going to be a period of long swing trades and if I want to deal with it.
As you said, I tend to be early or late
I was joking a little, but reflecting on some of my own investments. Several of mine are trading back at 2019 levels - DIS, INTC, CRM, for example and of course VZ wishes it was 2019, lol.
YTD I'm down about 11% at the moment.
Quoted from jonesjb:What is the 3 day rule?
When something major happens to a stock (like NFLX fiasco) wait 3 days for it all to shake out before you buy.
It’s not a hard and fast rule as much as a warning not to be too early when buying stocks that have made big moves on good or bad news. I’ve bought stocks in the after hours on earnings drops only to have them drop further in the next day or two.
Quoted from extraballingtmc:So time to take the L on pins? Any reason to kept holding or just move on?
PINS has been beaten down by about 75% compared to this time last year. Now trades at a more realistic (cheap?) 19x forward earnings. Had at least two larger companies (PYPL and MSFT) try to buy them within the last year or so. Zero debt and 2.5B in cash. 13B market cap makes them a possible acquisition for many companies. Positive earnings for the past 3-4 quarters. They have had a deceleration in growth and users over the last few quarters after running up some spectacular pandemic era numbers. Revenues are up. PEG is about a 1 which is low if you consider this a growth company. Seems like it is trading as though people expect the monthly active user decline to continue. They have plans to convert the "pinners" into buyers, increase ARPU (average revenue per user) and compete more with other online retailers. If that plan works, and they keep or increase monthly users, it will make PINS a bargain at this level.
They lost 7 of their top executives this year. The CEO (and founder) is 40 years old and has been CEO since the company started in 2010. Can't figure out why the exodus. Could be rats leaving a sinking ship or could be the CEO shaking things up, hard to tell. They haven't done a stellar job on monetizing their users, so it could be they needed some new blood in those positions, who knows?
So its a mixed bag. Earnings come out Wednseday after market close. Should be interesting. I have some 2024 calls. I'm betting they either get bought or they start executing better on the monetization of their user base. Not a short term play, IMO.
Quoted from kvan99:Just read an article about NVDA...basically it says that during the pandemic demand was pulled forward and the increase in demand led to unsustainable valuation. So don't jump into NVDA anytime soon. I think I'm done with individual stock picks for now. I bought VOO and I'll get into the QQQs when I figure out where the bottom is. I'll keep some of the dogs like Paypal and Meta because it's not worth selling now. Don't be fooled we're in a bear market.
I sold NVDA May $195 puts a couple weeks ago thinking it would never get there. Looks like I will be the new owner of those shares soon. Ugh. You are right about not buying anything right now.
Quoted from RTR:I sold NVDA May $195 puts a couple weeks ago thinking it would never get there. Looks like I will be the new owner of those shares soon. Ugh. You are right about not buying anything right now.
Closed the NVDA puts out yesterday rather than own another 35x forward earnings stock in this environment. Sold some CRM too. Just can't imagine their earnings report will be good enough to drive them up. They are at a 40 forward PE even beaten down to $180/share.
1 month later
Quoted from swampfire:If my employer could hire someone in India to do what I do, they would have done it already.
Bingo.
So, did anyone buy anything today? Is there anything worth buying? Hell even XLE is down almost 10% over the last 4 trading days.
I spoke with a friend's advisor today and he suggested that we are near the bottom, but would really like to see the S&P around 3600. He also suggested thinking about some international exposure. My only international exposure rn are large growth stocks that have business outside the US - MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, etc. In other words, none really.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:I'll chime in here and say that McDonalds here has recently gone to $15 per hour. At about the same time as this raise, the order kiosks came so I am now working with a touchscreen instead of a person. The same thing is happening at the Royal Farms gas stations... more and more check out lanes at the grocery store and local Wal Mart are self checkout. So... automation is replacing these clearly replaceable workers. Congratulations! You have higher wages... if you can get that job now.
Companies will automate when it's feasible from a cost and technology standpoint. I hope they do automate some of those jobs, it will help the tight labor market and create more jobs in robotics and automation.
Some companies have not been paying the 'fully loaded' cost of employees for a long time (maybe ever?) and we have been subsidizing that shortfall in various ways including medicaid, housing assistance, food assistance, etc. It's about time businesses started paying enough for people to afford these things on their own. I would like to see a drastic reduction in corporate welfare programs.
1 week later
Irrational exuberance today. I'm not buying anything yet.
Except I bought some TSEM. It floated down below $47. INTC announced their purchase of it for $53/share cash back in February, hoping to complete the sale within 12 months from that announcement. So about a 13% return if you are willing to take on the risk of the deal falling through.
3 months later
Quoted from kool1:Its not a strategy you want to have on all the time or long term but it's probably ok short term. Environment is still very negative.
Sold my high yield debt this week also, I think spread could widen further. Sit in money more market fund for a while. Again personal trade only, our don't have much high yield anyway.
A couple weeks ago I nibbled on some higher yielding bank preferreds (spread around JPM, SBNY, MS, WFC) which have not done well in the last couple of weeks. Not sure if I should hang on, average in, or dump. Only one of them has a maturity date.
HY bond funds I bought this week look promising. There is def yield out there to have now that TINA finally died.
What is your advice for the bond part of a retiree portfolio? I'm retired, but never really invested much in fixed income.
90BF2616-450A-4A4A-ACEF-71FED0D73CEE (resized).jpegQuoted from kool1:Jobs report Friday
Did you buy a high yield bond fund or individual bonds?
I think they are ok but if you buy individual names do your homework on the companies.
We generally keep older clients in investment grade bonds, government bonds and guaranteed term certificates. Small amounts of high yield are ok but we don't recommend big allocations as they can get volatile. Bonds allocations are there for income but also meant to keep portfolio volatility down. Most retired clients are at 60/50 or 70/30 equity to fixed these days though we are tilting to more fixed income with rates being higher now.
The bond ETFs are SJNK and SHYG. They have both been hammered this year and now have a 30 day yield in the 7s. Not huge positions, just been buying small lots of each over the last 2 weeks.
The bank preferreds act a little like bonds but only one of them has a maturity date. Some are fixed rate, some floating. Bought them a little too early back in July/august and they are down about 6% now. Currently yield around 6.2%.
1 week later
Quoted from Zablon:Can anyone who is holding these confirm for me that the website does not show you any interest? Or is it only added every 6 months? I find it odd that they expect you to compute your own interest and don't update the totals.
The website is terrible. I bought some ibonds for the first time this year, but spent 10 minutes making sure I was on an actual 2022 modern website and not some weird scam site.
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:yeah ... but would be nice if we can stop handing out free money
It's time for the free money to stop!
https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/?detail=t&order=rank&sort=asc
1 week later
Quoted from WeirPinball:Thinking of picking up some alphabet and Microsoft today on weakness any thoughts?
I sold some MSFT 11/25/2022 215.00 Puts for $4 today. I already have plenty of MSFT, but wouldn't mind owning a bit more at net $211/share.
That would be a new 52w low if it gets there.
I'm long GOOG but not looking to own more of it right now.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:Ugh... I hate the salad bar. O well. .75 is better than 1.
Pics or it didn't happen.
3 weeks later
Oil. 10 year chart is shit. 5 year is shit. 1 year chart is stellar, but what will make next 5-10 years look stellar? A lot of things seem to have converged just right to give us this run up. Re-rating up while most other sectors are re-rating downward? New kind of oil that everyone willing to pay more for? Oil prices go up more and stay? Feel like I missed it. If only I had listened to Iceman or kool1 earlier! I own some XLE (that's the chart I referenced) but that's the only direct exposure and it is underweight in my portfolio.
So - should I buy today (today in the broad sense), what should I buy and why?
Quoted from kool1:It's not too late IMO - I am still adding overweight oil exposure to new client accounts today
https://twitter.com/StreetSignsCNBC/status/1594899454834126849?s=20&t=AYdLXRJj5h9Ts-nDq5-ZQg[quoted image]
What companies or ETFs specifically are you adding?
I read the article by Nuttall. It seems to hinge on the cuts to Russian oil output, China demand increasing, US shale operators possibly cutting 2023 production targets, and potential OPEC+ cuts if prices continue to fall.
I can see oil staying high and maybe going higher if OPEC can maintain their grip on output and US producers keep production constraints in place. But some of those things may change.
Who knows, maybe US policy will change? I don't think a 5 year bull run in oil will be politically survivable for either party.
1 week later
I enjoy the back and forth between iceman44 and
kool1 - thank you both for taking time to post stuff and push back a bit. Cool to have opposing opinions from investment pros expressed and explained.
Apple is a top 5 holding for me but I haven't been tempted to buy more. If it dipped substantially I'd prob buy more. Weirdly I agree with both of you guys on Apple.
TSLA is a no go for me until Musk gets his meds dialed in and the multiple comes down.
3 weeks later
Quoted from DropGems:Tsla made investors like 7 times more money than Apple in the last decade.
TSLA made some people a lot of money in 2022
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-the-most-profitable-short-pick-of-2022-with-nearly-14-billion-in-proceeds-since-elon-musk-agreed-to-buy-twitter-11671736610?mod=mw_quote_news
1 month later
2 weeks later
Hey kool1 - What are some fixed income investments you guys like? That side of my portfolio is pretty light. I have a bit of of SPHY, SJNK, SHYG, PHYGX - all are high yield bond funds, a few bank preferreds yielding in the 6% range and I bought an I-bond for the first time last year.
3 weeks later
Quoted from jchristian11:Huh? Private companies go out of business every day, the govt is a monopoly and has zero consequences for piss poor management.
Tell that sad story to those who lost their re-elections.
Quoted from PinStalker:I wonder how all those people lived without social security payments before 1937? The horror!!!
Well, 1930's average life expectancy in the US for men was around 58 and for women around 63.
People used to know when to die dammit! Selfish assholes just living like we have endless money to throw at their old asses. This country is going to hell in a hand basket!
2 weeks later
Bunch of Negative Nellies on this thread think the country and the economy is going to Hell because they just found out about drag queens.
Rupaul's show is in its 15th season boys - started in 2009 - the same year as the longest bull market in history. Coincidence? Nope. Drag popularity is highly correlated with good portfolio returns.
Neither side is happy with the current admin policies on energy - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/biden-oil-drilling-permits-willow-project/
Oil companies operate capital intensive projects in an uncertain environment. OPEC restricting output (or flooding the market), Russia war, possible recession coming, Covid, etc just a few examples. US oil companies don't want to invest in longer term projects without some sort of guaranty or handout (favorable policy usually equals a subsidy of some form). They want and need some certainty where they can get it and the only real place is from their own government.
Plenty of drilling permits have been issued, more than the previous administration at 2 years in, including the big multi-decade Willow project in Alaska with COP. But Leases and Permits are different issues. The lease comes first, the permit next. The amount of new acres leased is really low compared to previous two administrations and that is/was a Biden policy result.
But only about half of all federal leases are currently producing, making some people wonder what the fuss is about on the leasing complaints if the oil companies already have so many leases they are just sitting on and the government isn't stingy with the permits. High oil prices = more development. Low oil prices = production reduction - so with recent hardening of the market, maybe expect more development.
The new IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) seems to have addressed the leasing concerns - guaranteeing that a certain amount of leases will be coming up for auction being one of those changes. So the IRA has given the oil industry some certainty, maybe not everything they were looking for, but certainly more than the Biden Admin wanted. A good deal rarely makes both sides happy. Certainly the IRA has taken the "Biden has cancelled all new oil leases" talking point down. Even XOM CEO Woods had some positive things to say about the new legislation.
3 weeks later
Hey kool1 - do you guys have thoughts on who/what is going to be disrupted by AI? Adoption and experimentation seems to be happening faster than people realize. ChatGPT reached 100 million users faster than any social in history.
Chegg got hammered this morning bc of potential AI usage affecting their growth rate. Down over 40%. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/02/chegg-drops-more-than-40percent-after-saying-chatgpt-is-killing-its-business.html
Quoted from kool1:I don't think anyone knows for sure who the big winners and losers will be - safe bets are the usual suspects like MSFT, PLTR, META, GOOG, NVDA, ADBE. Even IBM could be in the mix.
That's good advice on potential winners. I'm thinking about the potential losers, like CHGG. Granted the market prob overreacted on them yesterday, but maybe not.
For example IBM just said they will be replacing 30% of their back office positions (7800 people) with AI over the next 5 years. If this is really possible and starts happening at scale - who are the losers? Thinking staffing agencies, payroll processors, office equipment, health/workers comp insurance companies, commercial real estate, other educational services, etc.
Just a thought experiment really. Anyone?
2 weeks later
Quoted from RTR:Picked up some June 2024 XLE $70 calls for $14.50. Seems like a good bet that XLE will pop above $84 between now and then, but who knows.
Update on this trade - it popped to a 50% gain! But I got greedy, sat on it like a dummy, and now it's dropped to a 4% loss....
The advice to buy when oil is at $70 and sell when at $85 is very good advice and would have served me well had I followed it.
Quoted from kvan99:The same, I love doing that with NFLX below 300, BA below 200...etc.
Me too...but it's still good. I think the very top price for WAL is around $38 so I'm stepping out of the trade soon. I agree with you about Tech, the risk is back on, I'm now looking for a pull back in AMD, NVDA and CRM to get back in. I also more bought INTC, getting hopeful about inventory being cleared out by next quarter.
Bought a few more since this is when I should be 'buying it back'. Hopefully I'm smart enough to follow my own advice later...
Anyone have experience buying Invesco BulletShares (or any defined maturity bond fund) and holding to maturity? BSJP matures in 2025, 12 month yield 5.75% and 30 day yield 8.13%. Current price $22.41. 5/18 NAV $22.35
If I understand it correctly, in the final year the maturing bonds inside get rolled into short term t-bills or other short term cash instruments, and they mature/pay out the NAV of shares in December of 2025 (in above example).
What I'm trying to figure out is how the NAV changes over time. I understand this is high yield and there is a default risk on some of the bonds in this environment.
Quoted from spikelou2:Just keep it simple and roll your own treasures online . Keep it simple
Dealing with my FOMO on whether to move into a few HY bond funds or not for the longer term. The rolling t-bill party, which I am doing right now, won't last forever I think and as those short term yields come down, so will the HY yields. Unless the economy tanks and defaults rise or we get more fed rate hikes plus the QT and other stuff the fed is doing that I don't understand.
Will HY bond rates will float further up and one should hide out in the t-bills for a better opportunity? Is the 300 basis point differential between HY and T-bills enough of a risk premium right now? It may not be - if fed keeps raising to 7% like Jamie Dimon just suggested, then there is an interest rate risk ready to bite anyone piling into HY right now.
Just not sure what to do, but now that I write it all out, seems like the rolling t-bill party might continue for some time and may be the better play. I chased some yield earlier this year with a great rate on Signature Bank preferreds and it was awesome right up to the point where I got wiped out. Then it was the opposite of awesome. Any input is welcome!
1 month later
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:Transitioned all my investments out of individual stocks and into the S&P 500 late last month. As food for thought around the DC Beltway I see about as many Rivians today as I did Teslas 10 years ago. 2 or 3 Rivians a week now vs maybe 20 Teslas.
EV's are popping up everywhere. This is a Rivian towing a camper, charging up in a Walmart parking lot in Greenville Alabama of all places. I was more surprised the Greenville Walmart had a charging station than I was to see an EV tow vehicle, but that also surprised me.
IMG_4185 (resized).jpeg
1 month later
Sold my XLE 6/21/24 $70 calls (ahead of CPI coming out tomorrow) for $22.20, bought earlier this year for $14.50. Based on the "sell when oil is $85 and buy when it's $70ish" strategy. Also on the don't be greedy strategy....
I still have a long XLE position, this was just a trade.
1 month later
Where do you find good information on a company's investments in other public and private companies? MSFT has a $13b investment in OpenAI, a venture capital arm (M12), investment in Databricks and others. Same with many of the other mega cap tech companies. Where do I find a good summary of those investments and their value?
1 week later
Quoted from kvan99:Yeah, I saw that. That's why we need term limits. We need campaign financing reform, we need stricter lobbying rules (see Menendez's gold bars) and barring of government employees working for vendors of US government after leaving office.
Pretty sure what Menendez was involved went beyond lobbying.
Quoted from WeirPinball:And how about no investing for congress
Certainly no individual stocks. Maybe index funds only, no shorts, managed in blind trusts. Including spouses.
The shitheads trying to shut the government down probably have some interesting trades running up to the shut down.
Hey kool1 (and anyone else that has an opinion) C is trading at roughly a 5 year low, pays 5.4% dividend that appears to be well covered, passes all it's stress tests fine, and is one of the Big 4.
I've been long since 2020 when I picked up shares for what was then cheap avg $45/share. Now it's even cheaper at $39. What am I missing here? Time to bail or pick up more? Is the dividend safe? It pays way more than the other 3 big banks right now.
Quoted from kvan99:Have you noticed C hasn't really anything since Pandit was CEO (2009)? It's just not liked very much by WS. But, with that said, I've been reading a lot of positive news about the current CEO lady, she's been doing a lot of house cleaning, still tho, I'd rather be in WF or BA....Heck, the gold standard is JPM for banks (As long as Dimon is there).
Edit: I'm just thinking...if we're to have a hard landing, wouldn't banks be the first casualty?
I'm in all 4 of the bigs, all bought around the same timeframes in 2020, but C just hasn't kept up at all. JPM I've owned since 2008, but added in 2020.
The 2020 purchases are all up except C. WFC +50%, JPM +43%, BAC +9%, C -16%
I typically hold quality companies through good and bad, don't frequently sell stuff. I have trouble being right once, forget about twice!
Not on my stock/inflation/economy bingo card, but the new weight loss drugs are having measurable impacts on the economy. Walmart says people are buying less food. Airlines have even said they may use less fuel.
Maybe inflation can be tamed with drugs?
Quoted from Zambonilli:GLP1s are absolute miracle drugs and unless there's some long term side effects found they will continue to grow. I had a bunch of medical devices stocks that are getting crushed because their devices are projected to be needed so much less.
If free from side effects or if side effects are ‘neutral’ compared to side effects of the underlying condition they have the potential to affect sales of snacks, medical devices, some other drugs, alcohol, tobacco, restaurant sales, beverage companies, confectionery sales, and probably stuff we haven’t thought about yet.
Ozempic continues its disruptive effect. Novo Nordisk halted Ozempic kidney disease trial based on meeting criteria for success early. Davita, dialysis provider, stock is getting crushed on this news. Down 20% just today. BAX and other dialysis equipment/service providers also down. Amazing to watch it's effect on a variety of stocks.
1 week later
Quoted from Oaken:Didn’t Bloomberg in 2022 also predict 100% recession for 2023?
Edit:
Wait, that IS the headline from 2022. Silly me.
Lol, good catch.
The pros have predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions.
1 week later
Quoted from nwpinball:We've made huge moves against China economically in the past two years and they haven't had any quick reactions, that's just not how a country that's been around 4,000 years works. It's very American to think that their moves would hinge on one US election, but they won't, if there is one thing you should understand about China is they are playing a very long game.
But if you want invest based on your wild doomsday scenario, I suggest you stock up on gold, guns, dry goods and find yourself a bunker. And maybe a foil hat.
Gold probably has limited use in that scenario. Prob get a lot more trade value from bottles of Jack or Tito's.
2 weeks later
Quoted from RTR:[quoted image]
There may well be a sad bull gif headed our way and I will post one when it happens. I'm neither bear nor bull and have made very few changes to my portfolio over the last few years. Most of my stock and ETF holding periods are over 10 years. A bit more in cash/bonds now, mostly bc of favorable rates and my age. 15% vs usual 7-8%. Probably should have more there.
Moving money in and out rarely works well for me, gotta be right twice in that scenario when it's fucking hard to be right once. It is a little distressing watching the ups and downs sometimes, but remember what Buffett says about patience - “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”
Quoted from DropGems:6% on the Russell in one day! Wake up bros!
dude, you nailed that one!
Quoted from Nicholastree:[quoted image]
Touché!
Quoted from phil-lee:I can refer you to an episode of real life in Venezuela. Inflation crippled their worthless currency. People are actively buying essential goods with gold, much of it panned from Rivers and streams in-Country and gleaned from jewelry..
Gold is a Tier 1 asset, which is why central banks around the World are buying TONS.
In the past year I have identified suppliers of meat, auto parts, farm supplies who will accept gold.
The guy who delivered my motorcycle preferred the 3 silver Maples I gave him instead of a 100 dollar bill.
I know it's not for everyone. For me it's just another form of currency if the current one gets in trouble.
Other assets like whiskey, cigs,bullets, eggs could become Tier 1 assets.
Have lost much faith in silver, as long as its manipulated will never reach its true price. Still keep a few hundred ounces in case the day comes its desired or needed.
Gold may work in Venezuela, but only because the rest of the world's economy is functioning and making a market for gold that can be traded for currency. Guess what else works in Venezuela and other countries where local currency has been devalued? Lots of stuff including Dollars and Euros. If USA becomes a Venezuela, which it will not, all bets would be off.
My main point was that a true bunker, beans, and bullets scenario in the USA (very unlikely in our lifetime) would render precious metals as worthless as paper money for apocalyptic commerce activities.
Lastly, please put me in touch with people who like to receive $75 worth of silver for $100 worth of currency. I would like to do some trading with them!
Quoted from mattosborn:1oz silver Maple coin is ~$33 right now, so $100 for 3 seems about right.
Was roughly going off silver prices of 23 bucks an ounce. But here are 10 for $280 on eBay with free shipping. I would still be more than happy to trade with the guy that prefers 3 of these to a $100 bill.
Quoted from phil-lee:I'll say it again, gold is not for everyone. No longer trying to "sell" the concept.
I do see outright hostility toward accumulating gold though from those who don't. They wish to label them all sorts of derisive terms. It's not enough to simply disagree and do you. Not sure where this comes from.
I trade in the Market as well and do not label people who do so.
Gold is Tier 1 asset.
Central Banks Worldwide are buying TONS.
If its a correct course of action for them then logic would tell you it may be a good idea for the individual.
Do not base your decision from the fantasy of survival shows.
Hey man, this an investment thread where people present investment ideas and people discuss them. Any idea in here is subject to critique. No need to take it personally. Just pointing out that gold and bunker scenarios don’t seem to complement each other especially while you live in an awesome country like America.
Gold certainly may have a place in an individual’s or country’s portfolio for various reasons. But once it’s bunker time in America, it’s probably of no use and you could have bought more useful items for your bunker. Boots, tampons, fungal cream, whiskey, aspirin, toilet paper, pinball machines etc.
Quoted from Zambonilli:You can make bullets from a press with silver in a doomsday scenario and it can be used in basic construction. If there's a financial system left silver will have more value due to it's utility
In a werewolf apocalypse where a financial system is still in place and you have a full handloading set up, Silver will def come in handy. Could make all the difference.
Quoted from kool1:Wasn't recommending gold (I don't own it) but if you do buy bars and hide them in the basement, good luck finding people to take it as tender for anything close to its actual value if they take them at all.
Costco has been selling 1 oz gold bars online. Probably a decent deal ( as far as purchasing premium goes) if you live in a state that doesn’t tax bullion purchases and you have the 2% reward card for Costco purchases.
They sell out within a few hours after posting them from what I have heard. I’m not a gold guy either, although I am a Costco fan.
Quoted from BRONX:Dono
I really like *et* energy transfer, I almost bought them in the summer around $12.49, I ended up.going with TC energy
*Bk* bank of Ny Mellon, I prefer Canadian banks because of higher dividend yield and potentially more upside in my own opinion. Regardless bank stocks are on sale, you should do really well with a good name like Ny Mellon bank as you chose
Anyone tracking ADM ? Archer Daniels Midland???
They look nice to me, any thoughts
ADM ticks a lot of boxes for me - increasing dividend, dividend coverage ratio good, valued at 10 forward PE, but they operate on skinny profit margins in a commodity focused business so movements in the grain and soybean markets have big effects on them. And if we hit any sort of deflation environment in commodities, it's gonna be trouble for them. That said all of that may be priced in. They are down 27% ytd. They are trying to diversify their business and if they are successful you might be glad you bought here. I probably won't though, I bet you can get it cheaper.
1 week later
Quoted from Oaken:Apple to the rescue!
That seemed like a little home cookin' to me.
3 weeks later
Quoted from kvan99:Sorry, I got nothing...but I'm thinking of bottom fishing some Pfizer....6% dividend, stock is down something like 44%. A small position of maybe 500 shares to start with and give room for averaging down.
I have bloody fingers from catching this falling knife (PFE) over and over. Hanging in there though. Hoping there is a lot of tax loss harvesting towards eoy and people will start getting back in next year.
They have made some big acquisitions and should be replacing their patent losses over time if they can execute on their plans.
Quoted from kool1:Well maybe (I'm no pharma expert) but 1000 better places to put your money.
Time for your top picks for 2024? Give me something to spend that Pfizer money on if I sell.
Quoted from kvan99:You're selling PFE down here? Are you booking losses for tax reasons? Man, I'm pretty sure we're in the trough or damn near it. Get back in when you book the losses.
No, but I did buy some LEAPs, enough so that I could sell the stock I own and still do well if they straighten out between now and Jan 2026. You can buy $30 Jan 2026 calls on this for $3.65ish and $20 calls for around $9. I have a few of both.
I'm keeping everything for now but, I might sell the stock and sit on the options once the wash rule runs.
The street hates this stock or has no confidence in current leadership. Maybe both.
Quoted from kvan99:This is true....I was counting on 45% hate was enough, but you never know. The pill form of the diabetes drug was pulled due to 2x a day tolerance issue, supposedly, they will work on a 1x day dosage now. The Seagen acquisition maybe the dambreaker...but nothing is guaranteed. Also, I must admit the overbought market chatter has gotten louder in the past few days.
45% hate is plenty of hate if you ask me! LOL, never thought about it like that.. 
1 week later
Quoted from kvan99:Max-9 is relatively new, so only a few years old....the plug is being in use both on Boeings and Airbus planes...they're not controversial. The fact they found loose fasteners is a bit bad, but not as alarming as you think, also, there is a sliding scale for loose, how loose is loose? One turn, two turns out, or half way out? I think the mechanics are probably reporting they weren't torqued down all the way or to final spec. There are about 60 nut plates around the door frame, that's how the panel or plug is fastened to the fuselage, then there are 4 lockout bolts that keep the door from sliding up. How the incident happened will take a long time to decipher. There had to be 2 or more things happening for this panel to blow out....that's why I think there was a pressurization issue combined with missing lock out bolts.
[quoted image]
Your knowledge of this goes a little beyond the enthusiast, lol! Great information, are you in the industry?
2 weeks later
Quoted from Zablon:This is where I am struggling. Before the tech crash I was up 80% or so on some stocks...and woops...yeah..lost those profits because it all dropped so fast. Most of those stocks have not recovered.
But now here I am...65% up on MSFT
50% up on APPL
38% up on AMZN
38% up on GOOGL
20% up on META
And wondering if I should cash out or double down.... I really really hate limit sales because the volatility has sold things that were never going down that far...
Don't we have earnings coming out on all 5 within the next 3 days? Think MSFT and GOOGL are tomorrow. Lots of good stuff already priced in, hope they all crush it. Maybe buy some puts if you are worried about a short or medium term crash?
I'm long all but META on that list. I'm not smart enough to jump in and out at the right times, so I just stay in. Occasionally sell way out of the money covered calls but mostly just leave them alone.
Quoted from hank35:Historically speaking. If MSFT (or anyone for that matter) has a good/great earnings report, does it drive the stock up?
It's mixed I guess. It doesn't matter to me, I don't trade on their earnings reports. I've just been sitting on the stock since 2012. My only two regrets are not buying more and not setting the the dividends to reinvest. The nerve of me thinking I know what do with those divvies better than Nadella and team!!
Quoted from Zablon:I hate being right. All those stocks fell 2-6% at least and they trounced expectations. Of course, I suppose you can just look at it as a buying opportunity.
In absence of unusually good and unexpected news, they were priced for perfection and due for trim. Both have been on an absolute tear over the last year MSFT +66% and GOOGL +46% even after today's leg down.
Quoted from kool1:I would stay out of the PFE/BMY value traps.
1 week later
Quoted from kvan99:Exactly right...same co, same product, but grew the entire Tesla cap in 4 months. We.dont have to be hedge find guys to call bs.
To be fair, Tesla helped out quite a bit.
Image 2-12-24 at 1.05 PM (resized).jpeg
Quoted from BRONX:@pinball2020
We will see what happens tomorrow. Now I will put my Nostradamus hat on and make a bold prediction for tomorrow, since I was around at the 2000.com era and I seen this play out before
My prediction.... c3ai.com stock ticker "Ai" will skyrocket past $40.00/share tomorrow on no news, simply because they have "Ai" in there company name and ticker symbol. That's how silly we have become. Ps.... I don't own any shares. Like I mentioned before I was around the 2000 crazy era, but this era in more funkier than ever....
Goodnight to all
2000 is different in a lot of ways though. The tech companies everyone is mentioning, aside from c3ai, all have great earnings that are growing. Heck GOOG is only trading at 23 times forward. AMZN is prob cheaper on a PE ratio than it has been in a long time. Apple is still a cash machine that is returning cash through buybacks and dividends and they finally had a quarter of positive growth - and supposedly some AI news soon. MSFT is trading at a pretty rich 36x forward but they are starting to monetize their AI investments and may well grow into that multiple faster than people think. Meta seems to have righted the ship.
NVDA has grown earnings, but there is a shit ton of optimism priced into it and I don’t see how they can meet it at their next earnings report. I would consider buying some on really big pullback. TSLA is a train wreck for several reasons.
I have long term positions in APPL MSFT GOOG and AMZN. Even though I am positive on all 4, I’m not a buyer of any of them at current market dynamics and their valuations, but I’m not a seller either. I would probably add to some of them on a pullback.
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:feels like it really got ahead of it's self ... but who knows
I don't think it's any more expensive on a valuation basis than it was a year ago at $200ish. Seems to beat and raise at every earnings call and consistently trade at 55-60x forward earnings, very low PEG, and has solid bookings for orders into the future.
I still don't have any aside from exposure in ETFs.
1 week later
Quoted from kvan99:Oh, I'm a believer, only thinking the hype is getting ahead of itself.
It could be a tad bit "over the skis" as they say. Stolen from ForceFlow on another thread:
1 week later
Quoted from WeirPinball:Imagine if you had gone "all in" on this one.
Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
Quoted from WeirPinball:OK cramer
By the way the bitcoin etf I jumped in is now up 20%
Nothing wrong with that! I just wouldn't go whole hog.
1 week later
Quoted from Dano:Is anyone buying into the meds stock and bouncing out after the dividend payout?
I'm not sure what to think about that 20m micro cap with 1.23 million shares. It's going to pay out 9.8m in special divs. It's interesting to think about. Get in, grab the $8 in dividend. Get out when it goes ex div, presumably at an $8 loss all things remaining equal. If that happens you have gained nothing except a dividend taxed at income rate and an $8 short term loss to be taken against a gain somewhere else?
If you short it at $18 (where it is trading at this moment) and then close out your short after ex-div date then you have made $8. Still risky as it may not behave as you anticipate. They are selling what you would think is a large part of what looked like a small crappy money losing company prior to the div announcement.
Here is a PR on the sale of the asset, not much to learn here except it happened fast. https://www.dykema.com/news-insights/dykema-completes-sale-of-assets-for-trxade-health-inc.html Yahoo comments section rumor say they sold that asset for 22 million which would cover the special dividend and their 6 mil in debt, but I can't find anything to verify that.
Am I thinking wrongly about it? I think nwpinball made the safe money already. Not sure I would touch this now, but will be following for entertainment purposes.
3 weeks later
Quoted from nwpinball:Well, my investment in AMD was ill-timed, it's down 15% in one month, whereas the rest of my semiconductor stocks and ETFs are doing great.
Anyone else in on KULR? It was getting hyped on a penny stock forum I'm on for weeks and I finally picked some up. It's been going up like gangbusters, it's my only green stock today.
wth up 65% today!
Quoted from hank35:Why did MSFT go from an equity summary score of 8.(something) to 4.2 in about a month?
I don't follow that rating system, but Schwab has them at C now which is roughly the same as your 4.2, a HOLD type rating. Trading at 35x forward earnings is pretty rich and over their historical of 30X. Having the lowest amount of cash on hand in 5 years - still a lot at 80B - and investing so much of it in AI projects without a clear understanding of the ROI yet. I can see why some ratings systems would take a more cautious approach.
Recent announcement of building a $100B AI focused datacenter as well.
Quoted from RTR:Looking the Schwab Direct Index investing product. 40 basis points, but they have a Tax Loss Harvesting process that appears to more than pay for the fee. Anyone have any experience or thoughts on this type product?
Anybody?
Quoted from pinball2020:RTR - I don't personally but as I understand it, the tax harvesting if it is in an ETF or Index Fund only takes place if the entire index is down. Check with a Schwab representative and then after they tell you "check with your tax advisor", check with him or her . Get a hold of the prospectus and see what is spelled out.
It looks like in our little circle of pinball investors nobody is in one of these funds (or noticing the posts to respond).
I met with them again and have additional info. For this product they might buy 300-500 individual stocks of the Schwab 1000 index in your account, picked to closely match the index performance. Only makes sense in a taxable account and they have a 100k minimum. If an individual stock goes down by some predetermined amount, they will sell it and immediately buy something similar. For example if HD went down 5%, they might sell and then buy the same $ amount of LOW. This happens constantly, not EOQ, EOM, EOY, etc. Rules based. 40 basis points fee.
Here is what happened in 2022 and 2023 in cash funded accounts:
Image 4-6-24 at 11.42?AM (resized).jpeg
Performance was similar to the index, but you got to pocket 26% (2022) and 8% (2023) of your entire balance in losses to carry forward or use against gains in this account or others. In 22 and 23 it more than paid for the fee as long as you have gains somewhere else to use them against.
Just noticed it underperformed the index in 23 by 2 points after fees, gotta check on that.
1 week later
Quoted from PinStalker:NVDA: "But but but..... AI..... AI!!!!"
I think the longs will be just fine, still up over 50% YTD, 175% over 1 year, and 375% over 3 years. Probably goes down more from here, but I still wish I had jumped in a year ago when I thought it was too expensive.
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