We have been having trouble finding my kids medicine in stock because they can't make the small injectors for the weight loss drugs fast enough and my kids medicine uses the same type of injector. Lots of 2nd and 3rd order effects.

Should have picked that gold up $28 jump today

"Cash is a position" as famously spouted by Steve Cohen

Why moon?

Flight to safety (treasuries) causing yields to drop.

Yields crater, equities moon.

From our call this morning - pick away

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Took the opportunity to pick up some AMZN

Loving this bounce - gotta get all the folks back in the water.
Too many peeps climbed on the bear boat, it's only for us bears. We don't take refugees.

Ozempic continues its disruptive effect. Novo Nordisk halted Ozempic kidney disease trial based on meeting criteria for success early. Davita, dialysis provider, stock is getting crushed on this news. Down 20% just today. BAX and other dialysis equipment/service providers also down. Amazing to watch it's effect on a variety of stocks.

Exxon has been getting hammered for 2 weeks. I've been trying to stay away from oil stocks, but if it keeps dropping right before Winter with war in the middle east, it seems like a buying point is coming soon.

Personally and from looking historically I went into DVN too early for my taste and probably should have stayed in FANG but I think we are bottomed out already. DVN is already moving back up. Maybe take a small position in Exxon and start averaging in slowly over the next few weeks?

FTNT almost hit my 9% stop loss so unfortunately I'm out. Don't see the environment improving for something like this right now.

Gold up almost $60 today. Good thing I didn't buy any

It looks like yesterday was the day to buy Dollar General. I almost bought a bunch of Dollar General after my last road trip because I relied on them in places like Arizona, Utah and California for cheap ice and supplies and we didn't have them up in the Seattle area yet. They seemed up and coming. But there stock tanked steadily so I'm glad I didn't.

Hmmm. Nobody excited about FANG hitting another all time high and the 9% Div they are about to stroke out

Noooo, I didn't buy enough!!! Lol

Between that and HES, they are currently my top winners

A lot of 52 week highs on oil stocks.

I am hoping that for the next few days this is just the pause between the oil stocks, XOM, DVN, FANG etc resume lift off.
Looking like this morning the downgrade to DVN was a non-event but for whatever reason there appears to be some selling for the oil stocks.
I was reading about DVN possibly taking over another company and long term I think that would be a good idea.

I am expecting (and maybe going to be disappointed ) that DVN prices continue creeping up to just before earnings Nov 07. I expect XOM, FANG etc to be going up some more to.

As Iceman44 and kool1 and everybody has been pointing out, oil isn't going anywhere soon. I also haven't heard the magic words from the Fed "We are done raising rates", from world leaders - "We have peace in the Middle East" etc so I expect oil prices to still be high and reflected historically and forward looking in earning reports.

EDIT: Ah kool1 got in his post before mine and with 52 week highs that explains that companies and investors may be taking some money off the table. DVN though isn't where it was a year ago.

I feel your pain on DVN, tried to cost average on it and still took a hit. Plan is just to keep taking in dividends and ride the oil wave as long as possible.

Are we having fun yet?

Your guys still like rally into eoy?

Uh-oh! Frowny face an appropriate reponse to run on the bank(FTX)? Cash me outside!

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The revised forecast is now 100% for a recession in 2024....I don't know, nothing a few trillions of free money can't fix.
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Weird. The news has been telling us how great and strong the economy is and getting better by the day and how printing all that money has helped fix everything. Guess I should probably stop reading Rick Newman articles then?

Didn’t Bloomberg in 2022 also predict 100% recession for 2023?

Edit:
Wait, that IS the headline from 2022. Silly me.

Lol, good catch.

The pros have predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions.

Yes, and they also denied the last one even happened.

Must have just been transitory like everything else.

Just picked up a small chunk of URNM

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Nothing is for sure but bond market over sold and stocks look to be the same.

kool1 - Thank you for sharing the graphs and insight. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to add to the thread.
We are in uncharted territory where there are a lot of variables hitting at once:
1. Interest rates not changing substantially.
2. Middle East/Ukraine/etc conflicts hitting at once.
3. Dysfunctional Congress and Debt Ceiling Not Agreed yet.

One or two of these I wouldn't be worried about. Three of these are a pause moment for moment.
As much as I want oil stocks to go higher I may take my losses for what little I am in for DVN (yes it may go up in two-three weeks but like in the charts above things can just languish or collapse). I think after beginning of November, things may be very volatile until the debt ceiling is sorted (if I had to pick one of the three things above that is the most impactful on the stock market).

Corporate real estate in the US is a mess and I was reading that credit card debt is increasing here as well. These aren't going to resolve now or even for one year going forward. I remember the empty office buildings and over-built McMansions (for the personal home market) back in late 1990s and 2008.

Cash isn't a bad place to also have since worse case are T-bills at least at 5% to put money in.

Good luck everybody.

We are definitely hanging in the balance and I knew they wouldn’t make an eoy rally easy lol. The buyers “should” show up though. You guys (portfolio managers etc) aren’t bailing right? Wondering where the 4200 bulls are though today…

Futures so bright I gotta wear shades.

kool1
You might know this one living in Canada...
Allied REIT on tsx. Ap.un multi year lows, is it toxic or just over sold?

Any opinion on Shopify??

Allied Properties is office - it's all real estate is toxic right now but office is particularly bad. If you want a REIT I would switch to an industrial one like Dream or Granite and be patient. Shopify is a good company but it's higher risk. I own it personally.

Cash equivalents at 4-5% is not a bad place to be. Markets are definitely on the edge of a break down, the GDP print this morning was strong again too. We are due for a bounce though, definitely oversold.

I'm long on Shopify. It soared to overvalued heights but if you were to list companies that might be the "next Amazon", Shopify is on that list. But it is risky. Roughly an equal probability its highest valuation is behind it.

My partner works with smaller businesses and warehouses and goods delivery, Shopify is what most use, the rest are switching to it. There's a decent job market for people to assist businesses navigating it as they grow, but it's got a good entry point for DIY small businesses to set up a basic online store.

Fidelity is currently offering almost 5% for just keeping your cash there. I opted for JEPQ because of the way higher dividend, but it's getting hammered along with everything else right now. I picked up some Microsoft today, good earnings statement and I like buying when everything is red.

I'm doing six month ladders at my credit union. Hoping the interest rates keep going up up up.

I do remember the late 70s when Paul Volcker was the man. He paused once and learned that lesson fast.

I think we are overdue for a bounce and here is where I am noodling and playing it safe (hopefully ).

Having been waiting for a bounce and not seeing it does not warm my heart as we move close to the end days of October which historically have been known for some brutal haircuts to the markets. Maybe a pop for Friday as part of the "recession trading routine - down most of the week but always up on Fridays to end the weekend on a positive note before breaking down further the following week".

CHOMP.

Party hasn't even started yet.

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Finally picked a good one - for now...

Anyone touching *TLT* eff 20yr + bond??

When will we get back to normal government full-blown bailouts, massive money printing and quantitative easing #23 and negative intrest rates again?

Good timing with AMZN, it's on fire today.

Good one bro.

Not too many magic tricks left to keep propping up this house of cards, I'd imagine.

AMZN, GOOG and META all look like good bets here to me. Pick away.

Nasty markets though - even energy stocks got whacked and oil was up $2.

TLT soon, may be a bit early.