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(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

3 years ago

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    #52 3 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    1 - Start young
    2 - Stick it everywhere
    3 - Do it as often as possible

    Power of Compounding.

    The one math class they should teach in every grade of school and burn into kids minds.

    Invest long term, use low cost ETF's and individual stocks. Buy your favorites on dips. Apple.

    I like to get paid while i wait, total return, which includes a dividend.

    With the Trump 180, everything is on the buffet table! Small caps and growth, LEAPS for options.

    #53 3 years ago

    With Bonds, you need to find interest rate sensitive ETF's like BKLN. When interest rates go up, the price of those bonds rise.

    We have just had a massive move in the 10 yr treasury, the bellwether for lending and rates, hit a record low of 1.4% in July and ran up to about 2.5% the other day, and has since dropped down to 2.43%.

    Interest sensitive bonds got crushed.

    Depending on your timeline, put it low cost sector ETF's, Spiders, or whatever flavor you like.

    #63 3 years ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    anyone have experience turning a fidelity 401k into a real estate investment account and avoiding penalties?
    My biggest investment is rental property and I like the residuals and hard material asset. I eventually plan that when I am ready for 'retirement' I will work my 401k the best I can in order to buy up more rentals. Also with rates likely continuing up for loans, I may want to use my 401k to but more properties sooner rather than later.
    anyone have experience with this?

    Roll into self directed IRA

    #66 3 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Life insurance is a case by case basis, including which kind.
    Joe Robbie is the perfect scenario of why life insurance is needed for certain individuals.
    Remember, term life is not the perfect insurance and stops around 55. Universal costs more in the later years.
    Just like there is no one perfect investment, there is no one perfect insurance. One must think of their portfolio as an orchestra. All the pieces are needed and need to work together, in order to make it properly work.

    There are several reasons why high net worth individuals would use an IUL if young enough

    Roth IRA look alike that acts like a private pension as well

    #107 3 years ago

    Do you rent your home or own it?

    Term insurance is like renting your home and flushing money down the toilet. Zero equity.

    Although it can be used to fill a gap period like KPG is doing. I prefer to own it via IUL and plug the remaining need with term.

    I realize its difficult to understand the concept but I use both vehicles, a SEP IRA and cash value IUL that will always outperform my SEP and work like a Roth IRA when I take the $$ out. I still want to be "tax diversified" when I hit that RMD stage in life. Different buckets to pull from.

    The death benefit is just the wrapper that allows us to take advantage of the tax loophole. A way to contribute funds to a Roth alternative if you exceed the income limit and also make substantial contributions.

    Maximum cash value and minimum death benefit is the guideline so as to not trigger the modified endowment contract rules. The death benefit is merely a plug figure based on how much I want to contribute to my Roth alternative.

    Have to be young enough and in good enough health.

    For the naysayers, I can guarantee you I can show you how it works much better than 401k in the long run (of course always take the free match money)

    And if I need the DB many years into the future for estate tax purposes, I already own it.

    #122 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Are you an insurance salesman?

    No. just what I do for myself

    As a cpa/attorney, I try and take advantage of the loopholes

    Make wise choices. I was taught well

    #123 3 years ago
    Quoted from Banker:

    Term ins. Is great in case you die during to specific years in the contract. For the past 50 years the ins. Industry paid death
    claims on less than 3 % of all term policies issued. I own a lot of permemant life, bought many years ago from a top 1%
    mutual company. My premiums are fully paid.

    The banker knows!

    #127 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    more like $4-500 a pop. But 5-10 trades per month.
    I'm not quitting my day job this is more like walking around money.

    Good pinball slush fund

    #128 3 years ago

    Most people don't have the patience or discipline for long term investing. Instant gratification feels better.

    Asset allocation, diversification, long term dollar cost averaging, basically modern portfolio theory. A couple of guys won a Nobel prize in 1991 proving you can't consistently time the market

    If you google periodic table of investment returns and look at the mosaic of color changes in the asset classes up or down from year to year it becomes pretty obvious

    There isn't one right answer. Everybody should do what they like and feel comfortable with

    Stick with it long term, excellent pinball profits are waiting for you!

    #132 3 years ago

    Btw Rai, Tesla should be trading at $50 bucks a share right now . imho

    One stock I would short with conviction. The Musk con is on its last legs and they won't have the govt giveaways under Trump

    The cult nature of Tesla has it hanging in there for now. I'm all for green energy but this company is never gonna make $$$

    Who will buy the company when the debt finally swamps them? Nobody at this price.

    #163 3 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    We spoke about selling AAPL calls, but there wasn't anything we liked. 120 calls in April were around $4.50. We both feel the stock is going to $130.

    Apple will be going to $130 if repatriation of $$$ overseas is allowed at a 10% tax rate on stock buybacks alone.

    Buying calls? Leaps? Or selling a covered call?

    #191 3 years ago
    Quoted from badbilly27:

    Alright the water seems warm so I'll jump in. I've been contributing to 401K since 21 - max out. Since the crash, I still max out 401K, but have kept bonus money in cash. I just haven't felt good trusting the market, but it's stupid to keep that much cash.
    Conservative late 40ish investor. Vanguard mentioned by some. What advice does this savvy group have? Any specific safe investments?

    If you believe the Trump train will continue as I do with tax cuts and deregulation then stage in your investment over the next month.

    It's impossible to time the market consistently

    Look at the Spider sector funds for .14 basis points. Materials, Industrials, technology and energy are my top sectors now. XLE, XLK, XLB, XLI

    There are a ton on ETFs in most asset classes for .06-.08 basis points a year. Schwab and Vanguard are in a price war right now

    Never buy a mutual fund. High fees and hidden costs

    Apple stock poised for a big iPhone 8 cycle upgrade along with growing service revenue. 2% dividend no brainer.

    Bud is on sale right now post Miller merger. Having to divest part of its line due to anti trust issues

    Home Depot, Visa, Costco

    Stz Constellation Brands, wine and wineries

    Oreilly auto for the all US play and zero currency risk. Take a look at that chart!

    Chipmaker Skyworks Swks from a valuation standpoint

    Lockheed LMT, LLL and Northrop in defense

    To name a few. With Trump, sectors are a good option now. Buy and hold. Don't trade

    Do your own due diligence though!

    #194 3 years ago

    With bonds, the Barclays aggregate index had its worst month in Nov in 25 yrs

    I hate bonds as an asset class right now. 35 yrs of declining rates and now it's time to move gradually higher over the next decade

    I had positioned fixed income in interest sensitive bonds since the summer

    FLOT, BKLN, preferreds like FPE and others.

    TIPS should work well as inflation heats up

    Tactical bond etfs

    All in all, not exciting

    #196 3 years ago
    Quoted from badbilly27:

    Sorry, I don't mean to be thick today. Can you buy S&P as a stock? SPXL as well? Sounds interesting strategy not sure if those are specific stocks you purchase.

    SPXL is a leveraged ETF from Direxion. They have all sorts of leveraged long/short etf's. I wouldn't use these to trade, spread is too much.

    However, if you have conviction that a certain asset class is going to move in a direction then you can leverage your dollars. This one is 3X

    52 week range is $56 to $113, can be some wild swings.

    I like the Spider sectors, that way I can cut out Health care, Real estate and Utilities right now from the S&P500

    ETF's trade like a stock. Another benefit of them versus mutual funds, you get to control your taxes much better via tax harvesting this time of year. Can't do that with a mutual fund.

    ETF's trade instantly, mutual funds settle at the end of the day.

    9 months later
    #500 3 years ago
    Quoted from mtp78:

    Been holding visa since it went public. Sold half and still have 2k shares....i am 49 and feel like this is a keeper for the long haul.
    When do you guys sell, is it wrong to believe in a company to hold it long term till retirement?

    No it's not

    Greatest advice I've heard from old timers like Cooperman and Dalio

    "Let your winners run, and be quick to sell your losers"

    4 weeks later
    #526 3 years ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    Read "The Intelligent Investor" ... that should be part of your strategy. Big companies like VISA (used to be Coca-Cola, McDonalds, etc) should be part of your foundation. IMO recently that has shifted to those low cost index funds making WAY more sense, but you shoudl still believe in and hold big companies like VISA. they're not going away any time soon

    Love Visa, owned it for quite a while now

    Core holding

    Apple is huge core holding, add on dips, make lots of $$$

    RCL and CCl trading at 17x earnings, like Apple, big discount to market, pays a dividend AND baby boomer retiring are loading up on cruises! New big ships coming online next 5 yrs

    JPM, BAC and the XLF. Financials will be good defensive play as rates rise in 2018

    Energy off its lows. I’ll take EPD pipeline for its 6.5% div which has increased for 10 yrs

    And EEM and VWO, emerging markets. Behind our markets in recovery and rate tightening

    Time for me to get defensive WHEN the 10 yr treasury tops or approaches 2.6%

    Inflation and rising rates will be a major headwind for stocks next yr

    So that also means you have to manage the interest rate risk with bonds. Rates go up, bonds go down

    Thus it’s Floating rate, High Yield and preferreds for me. FPE and HYLS yield about 5.5% PLUS you will make $$ on the position as rates rise

    #527 3 years ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    With stock buy backs and stock splits there is much room to run

    Haha yep. A LONG way to run. Don’t forget tax reform, repatriation and continued growth in ecosystem along with cloud, AR and everything else in the pipeline we don’t know about

    About 15 months ago Apple was trading at $95, HUGE buying opportunity, now of course its $175 and still trading at a big discount to the market

    Long term no brainer, buy on dips

    #531 3 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Things like cloud ecosystem is already factored in it’s not selling on current sales it’s selling on future growth hence the high PE
    Things like tax cuts are being priced in already notice the surge since the election? That’s business frendly environment being factored in, buy the rumor sell the news.

    Not yet. That's also what they said about the iPhone 8 announcement in September, "buy the rumor and sell the news", and the market gave us another gift to buy lower.

    Every stock trades on future earnings potential, not 12 months trailing PE. That said Apple, at 19x earnings today is trading at a HUGE discount to the S&P500 at 25.89x today. The median historical average is 14.87x

    Now there are many other valuation methods to look at, Price to sales, Price to free cash flow (markets are even more overvalued on that basis) but not Apple which generates mountains of free cash flow, forward PE, dividend adjusted etc.

    I used to think tax cuts were already priced into the market at this point, not so much anymore, maybe to some extent.

    It's 3%+ GDP growth driven by sensible deregulation and the resulting great earnings. Tax reform will help underpin this but multinational companies like Apple already pay a lower effective tax rate than US only companies like O'Reilly.

    What isn't factored in is the "repatriation" of $$$ from overseas at a proposed tax rate of 5%! Wow. That alone drives Apple stock up another $10-15 per share.

    The GROWTH of the Services aspect of Apple is why the stock has exploded, its not about future iPhone sales, although selling 85 million X models in the quarter doesn't hurt.

    What's also not factored in is what will they BUY with their 250 Billion cash horde? Disney, Netflix? Who knows.

    And the one of the biggest factors, they just leapfrogged everybody else on AR (augmented reality).

    Plus, what else do they have in the pipeline over the next 3-5 yrs that can't be disclosed that we don't know about. They get the best talent in the world and have the most $$$.

    Anyhow, my "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" moment will likely come after the Christmas quarters earning report. It will be a BLOWOUT quarter again and if previous cycles play out on these major upgrade cycles, that will be the time to sell and buy back in later.

    When you factor in all of the market valuation methods it is deemed mildly overvalued right now.

    If interest rates blow through 2.75% on the 10 yr treasury on up to 3% next year and inflation keeps ticking up, including wage inflation, yes its real, then I'd expect a decent selloff.

    #532 3 years ago
    Quoted from scarybeard:

    ETF that has been most solid for me over the past year has been ROBO. that little guy just keeps marching upward. I feel bad skimming profits off the top every couple of months, but I don't even know what volatility looks like for that ETF... would love to buy more after a pull back.

    I've ridden Cognex and Rockwell in that sector, 2 of the top ten holdings in ROBO. 95 basis points is an expensive ETF when the cost of ownership of the individual stock is zero but you do have a lot more diversification if you don't have the time to try and pick best in breed.

    Let's see what Disney earnings look like on Thursday. Not a huge fan with the ESPN fallout continuing BUT, the fact that they are pulling their content from Netflix could mean it might mean another monthly pay service like Netflix and including ESPN?

    #534 3 years ago
    Quoted from Vdrums:

    Does anyone sell covered calls? I took a few classes in it a while back and have done it a few times, but want to get back into it. It seems to work best in a bull market, and my feeling is there is going to be a correction in 2018. I'd like to identify a technique for a bear market. I was told selling puts can be effective in those times, but I'd have to research that.

    Covered calls are good for larger positions, you are basically just renting your stock for a time period. They work in any market. In a bear market you collect the rent and the stock never gets called away from you. The risk in this bull market is your stock getting called away from you if it runs past the strike price. Can't lose either way.

    Buying puts in a bear market is what makes you $$$ if you can get the duration and strike price right.

    One of my favorite leverage plays are LEAPS, long term options. If I think the market is going to tank over the next 2 years but not sure when I'd buy a long term LEAP, basically a leveraged put option, you can lose it all or make a ton.

    #552 3 years ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    Same here, Iceman. Pays nice dividend too.
    I love your analysis of the market. You have done your homework. While I've got Apple, Google, and all the other 'big boys' in my portfolio, I have recently loaded up on Ten Cent Holdings (TCEHY). Man, that stock has skyrocketed since September. I just put another $15,000 in it. I think it will be the next Amazon in the Orient. I'm getting out of the everyday stocks like CPG, PM, JNJ, KO . . . they paid respectible dividends but the growth rate was too slow for me. I'm 70 and I am getting away for the long hold stocks. Have had great success with RXL, another rapid climber, and Skyworks. I bought about $500 worth of it several years ago, and that little bit is now worth over $16.000 now.
    I bought BABA when it was first offered, just ton a lark. That baby has climbed too. I bought it as a gamble, just like I did TESLA. I'm in those 2 for the long haul hoping for a big payoff someday. And Adobe . . . of all things . . . has made me a shit pot full of money in the last 2 years.
    I've got a couple of REITs brewing. MAIN is doing great and paying nice dividends.
    I enjoy reading your comments along with all the rest on here just to see how much stock savvy I have . . .
    Mike in Kentucky

    Well its kind of my day job Mike! Yes I'm a good guy lawyer, estate planning, and CPA tax guy BUT I make my living as an RIA (registered investment advisor).

    I add in the Wills/Trust and tax planning as part of my service as an advisor for no additional cost. I charge 80 basis points down to 50 basis points depending on AUM. And manage about $300 million dollars.

    That said, I'm not giving out investment advice here to be relied upon because everybody's personal situation is different and people should be GOALS oriented and NOT just chasing returns. Power of compounding. Tortoise versus the hare.

    My favorite quote of Buffet for clients is "Don't risk what you HAVE and you NEED, for what you DON'T HAVE and DON'T NEED". Don't take undue risk unless you actually NEED a stable of Ferrari's.

    BABA is real Amazon playing in a much bigger market like TCEHY. Tesla? Well, what a story. So overvalued its unreal. Musk is genius and master BS artist, the quarterly conference calls are hilarious, especially the last one.

    If you believe in electric cars as a future, how about lithium battery companies. I like FMC, more diversified amongst the big three and poised for the future.

    Ahhh yes, SWKS, been a long term winner for us as well. Tied to Apple. Backed up the truck again last year at $59, sitting now at $113 and still undervalued and trading at a HUGE discount to the market and the sector.

    For the first time in years I'm buying INTC, its going higher. Sold out too early on NVDA.

    Like I said, watch that 10 yr. treasury rate. Be wary as it rises next year.

    #557 3 years ago
    Quoted from golfingdad1:

    Hey Iceman,
    What 's your position and outlook for this Qualcomm and Broadcom buy out?

    Hard to go against Hock Tan, CEO, but we are talking about a MOUNTAIN OF DEBT, but they are building a monster if it goes through.

    Check out this take, good summary of the deal. If you aren't on Seeking Alpha its a great deep dive of everything!

    #561 3 years ago
    Quoted from golfingdad1:

    Thanks Ice,
    Hold a lot of Qcom. And have for along time .
    Things have been bumpy, real bumpy.
    Sold 25% @ 71 last year but ever since down hill and until then downhill. I don't want to be left holding the bag again and sit at 50 something for the next 3 to 5 years . If this doesnt go through and litigation begins with Apple.
    Any suggestions, I don't see it getting to 70 unless it goes through, but if I does with brdcom who knows where it could go if anywhere.

    Yeah I think this is certainly good for you. And I’m not buying the Valeant argument. Certainly wouldn’t want to battle Apple and this buyout helps resolve that issue

    I think this $70 bid will end up in the high $70’s or $80 bucks a share when the dust settles

    If QCOM stays solo I agree, I wouldn’t want to ride it back down to the 50’s if the deal doesn’t go through and I would get out. Plenty of better places to be

    It’s been a great run for the chipmakers. I’m still on SWKS. Somebody will buy them at some point. If this deal didn’t go through they would prob be next up

    All of this M&A activity in chips a good sign imo. Intc and Amd was a shot across the Nvda bow

    #566 3 years ago
    Quoted from sbmania:

    Hey Iceman! You sound like just the kind of advisor I am looking for, but I am in PA and you are in TX. Any suggestions on how to go about finding a highly qualified and experienced investment advisor like you in the eastern Pa area? I also need a tax advisor/CPA since I recently bought two investment properties and am not sure the most favorable way to treat them for tax time.
    When I go to see the free advisors offered by Vanguard or Fidelity, it seems to me that they are much more interested in selling me their company's offerings rather than what is necessarily best for me. Also, they will not consider anything out of the box like rental properties, precious metals, annuities, etc. Besides that, they don't seem to want to make any allowances for the fact that I am currently 66 y/o. They suggest that I should plan to invest 100% of my non-stock holdings over the course of the next year in the market. When I tell them that I no longer work and am concerned since the bull market has run so long and recovering from a big downturn could be difficult for me, they tell me that over time everything will be ok and the market always rebounds. But I am not 26 or 36 anymore, and realistically how many more years can I afford to wait out a major downturn just to get back to even? Being that I don't work, I am no longer able to dollar cost average my salary into new purchases during a downturn as I once did, making recovery even more difficult. Certainly, I hope to live well into my 80's or 90's, but I don't necessarily need to be extremely wealthy when I'm 86 and not able to enjoy it! I would like a plan that provides for now, as well as later. Any recommendations on where to turn for advice?

    My favorite Warren Buffet saying applies here, "Don't risk what you have and you need, for what you don't have and don't need".

    Coming up with a game plan at 66 is crucial, that takes into account taxes, inflation, RMD's etc. RMD's are right around the corner. Need to be "tax diversified" as well.

    The power of compounding is so HUGE. And in retirement, it might be difficult to suffer a 2008 crash again, although I think it will be more like 2000-2003 when it comes, 3 yrs of double digit losses.

    That's also why my license is with TD Ameritrade, they are totally independent, no proprietary products like the other two, although Vanguard is great for fees.

    The advice you got of "don't worry it always comes back" is why a lot of people had to go back to work in 2008. That's terrible advice at your stage in life!

    There are some fantastic options out there to get some excellent returns and protect principal.

    Bottom line, its tough to find someone that actually cares about you, versus selling something for their benefit, but you need someone who is fee based and has a "fiduciary duty" to do what's right! What a concept.

    2 months later
    #636 2 years ago
    Quoted from MotorCityMatt:

    401k question for you guys. My 401k is way up right now, looking online it says my personal rate of return for the last year was 24%. I have 20 more years of work to go until retirement, that's the plan anyway right now. Most of my investments are in stocks. Should I convert a bunch of these over to bonds or money markets accounts while the market is high and then buy stocks again when the markets is low. Do people do this with their 401k's or just let it ride?

    It's impossible to "time the market" It's time in the market that counts, not timing it.

    401k's generally have shit bond options that don't allow you to combat "interest rate risk". High yields, Preferreds and Floating Rate bonds work better in a rising interest rate environment. The Bond index got woodshedded recently due to 10 yr rate spike.

    20 yrs out and while you are still contributing every month (dollar cost averaging) you hope for buying opportunities. Move to cash when the market starts to teeter IF you want to try and time it a bit.

    Read this

    #643 2 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    One is doing detailed analysis of a company, determining there is value, and buying a position. And eventually selling. This process needs to be repeated again and again and requires a high level of talent and intelligence. I doubt most private investors are doing this. Buffet is an example of somebody who has managed to do this over a lifetime.

    Except Buffet is "buy and hold". Sometimes to his detriment with IBM and not Apple until last year but clearly if you identify great companies, buy and hold, buy MORE on the dips that's how you build long term wealth, especially just starting out.

    "Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy".

    With $105 Billion in cash, Berkshire is a good way to hedge against a market that many think is "overvalued".

    1 week later
    #663 2 years ago

    I posted an interest rate article a few weeks ago.

    When the 10 yr. jumps up to 2.85% like it did very quickly, the risk premium in stocks is gone and program trading kicks in on $$$ flowing to bonds.

    The selling feeds on itself as stop losses are triggered.

    That said, excellent corporate earnings and tax cuts that haven't kicked in to future earnings. Repatriation of $$$ will be huge too.

    Panic? Ok. This selloff was long overdue. Don't succumb to the fear and greed trade!

    Watch closely what the 10yr does along with the Fed.

    #665 2 years ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    Just remember, when you buy stocks you are buying shares of companies. And even if the value of those shares go up or down, you still own the same amount of shares. If the company fails, oh well, at least you were part of something.

    Are you saying don't buy Tesla stock? Or Apple, because if it fails we got MUCH bigger problems in our country than worrying about stock prices.

    #691 2 years ago

    Don't ignore the MAJOR dips like we saw with the bubble in 2000 and the housing/financial crisis in 2008, especially if you are older, ignore the MINOR ones like we have just seen. Volatility presents opportunity long term via dollar cost averaging.

    We are in a tug of war with rising rates, potential inflation due to an overheated economy, massive debt, isolationism, rising wages and the federal reserve VERSUS great corporate earnings, tax cuts, worldwide economic recovery, deregulation and huge business and consumer positive sentiment.

    The power of compounding is the 8th wonder of the world and a 7% compounded return over the past 20 years that followed the S&P 500 VERSUS the exact same 7% return earned on a more consistent basis without the MAJOR dips would yield MUCH MUCH MUCH more in your account as opposed to just riding the roller coaster. It's just bottom line spreadsheet numbers.

    If i lose 10% this year on $100,000 and then make 10% next year I'm back to even right? Nope

    $100,000 - $10,000= $90,000 x 10% = $9,000 or $99,000

    Thus, don't ignore MAJOR shifts and/or recessions that will come down the road. Diversify and get out of the storm when it hits.

    Pay close attention to the Federal Reserve, inflation, and rising interest rates.

    #706 2 years ago
    Quoted from Astropin:

    I'm not an expert but I believe you have to wait until 59 1/2 to start drawing on your 401k without fees or penalties.

    That’s correct. Unless you retire early and do a 72t election

    #719 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I’m planning on retiring early during which time my “income” will be very low so I’ll be able to live off my non tax shelter investments and convert some of my IRA money at low tax rates. Once you hit 70 1/2 years old you are required to withdraw a goodly amount from your IRA each year plus SS high income (I hope) will force me back into a higher tax bracket.
    I look at the time after retirement but before SS and RMD as a doughnut hole in my taxes that I can use to fill up my Roth with less taxes owed. As always everything is subject to change so not sure if I’ll still be allowed to convert in 8-9 years from now.

    During that time you should be converting to Roth, while you can, to avoid as much RMD's at 70 1/2 as possible.

    Plus, its likely that by then the liberals will be back in power, raise taxes, and put an excise tax on the 17 trillion of 401k, pensions and IRA's over a certain amount. Like Hillary proposed.

    Ask yourself this question. Will taxes be higher or lower when i hit 70 1/2?

    Anyhow, its not just the benefits you get with the Roth conversion its the "stretch" benefits you get for the wife and beneficiaries after you are gone.

    As for the "Rule of 55", its called the 72t election and once you make it, its mandatory from 55 to 59 1/2 and its based on a formula of what you can pull out, considering interest rates at the time etc.

    #722 2 years ago
    Quoted from Farmboss:

    I think we have two different ideas going on here. I was under the impression that the 72t election is for IRA's and is different than the "rule of 55" for 401k's.

    If you have a 401k and have "retired" (a separation from employment and tax free rollover), rolling it over into your own IRA is a NO BRAINER 100% of the time.

    Why be stuck with the limited, usually high fee, shitty options in your 401k plan (not to mention subject to company creditors) versus taking it out and having the universe of options available to you.

    I've done maybe 2 72t elections for my clients over the years. If you can afford to retire early you should have other assets to draw from before 59 1/2.

    Need to consider rate of return, taxes, inflation, standard of living, etc. for starters.

    #742 2 years ago

    Read this, understand it and pay attention to the 10 yr treasury closely

    #745 2 years ago
    Quoted from TigerLaw:

    Yea, I understand how the bonds put pressure on stocks, but what I don’t understand is how inflation puts pressure on stocks. Seems like with higher than anticipated inflation equities would be the place to be since they actually can counter inflation by raising prices down stream to consumers. Obviously, I’m wrong on this but don’t understand why. Ice?

    So what's happened recently Tiger is we just saw wage inflation of 2.9%, couple that with tax cuts, consumer and business sentiment at record highs and it sparks fears of an overheated economy too quickly and thus worries that the Federal Reserve will have to come in and raise rates faster than anticipated to tamp down future "inflation".

    And its a global issue as well, monetary tightening is perceived to be around the corner globally as well.

    With inflation comes higher interest rates and a stronger dollar (a weak dollar has helped fuel the market), which hurts the US multi nationals.

    What you have seen play out the last several days and the whipsaw going on is just what Art Hogan said Erik, as the 10 yr rose to 2.85% the risk premium is not there in equities overall and program trading flows money from stocks to bonds automatically. The outflow to bonds then causes the yield to go back down, like it did to 2.75% and stocks rebound!

    That's why i say pay attention to the 10yr closely and the pace of increase.

    Factor in the derivatives like the VIX (remember 2008) and the put and call option action and you have major volatility.

    What should play out is when the VIX volatility trade finally unwinds, the excellent fundamentals, tax cuts etc. should take over again.

    Additionally, higher interest rates cause us to revalue and discount asset prices and what a reasonable multiple is to pay for stocks.

    That's why i love Apple, trades at a discount to the market, pays a dividend, and has a massive 250 billion cash horde to buy back its own stock. A safe place to hide out in the current environment along with the financials.

    #747 2 years ago
    Quoted from Erik:

    Why do we have to sell stocks? What's the actionable advice?

    Like Buffet says, if you are a long term investor, like we all should be, and not a trader, DON'T sell stocks, maybe reallocate to ones that work better in a rising rate environment and buy on dips!

    BRK.B . Berkshire/Buffet has a 105 Billion cash horde to "buy on dips", and he has done quite well

    Biggest holdings are Apple and the financials

    #748 2 years ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    Iceman is a smart man! Well said brother.

    Thanks DK! We profit when others are fearful! Patience

    #750 2 years ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    But being this is a stock market "traders" thread and not a long term, hold on to the rollercoaster ride investors thread, the idea is to sense when shit is about to hit the fan and be one of the first ones to grab your cash before there is none.
    And then when the last few are pulling out what's left of their 401Ks , find some bargains and repeat the cycle. Lather, rinse, repeat.

    Here is another excellent summary. There is nothing wrong with "grabbing your cash" and going to the sidelines in the short term or hedge your portfolio in a variety of ways.

    If people are looking for short term 'trades" in 2018 I would skew towards financials, energy, emerging markets and global stocks. High yield bonds on the fixed side (less interest rate risk) and maybe short the TLT

    Goldman Sachs GS has one of the biggest trading profit centers, that benefits hugely from volatility and trading which we haven't seen for quite some time.

    Apple is always a no brainer on pull backs. You can get really healthy with that strategy

    If you are a 'trader", you will underperform and get your ass kicked, its a given, too many factors out of your control. The thread should be changed to smart investing.

    #752 2 years ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    I think a lot of it has to do with what point of life you are at and how your experience went in past market turmoils. If you are younger and newer to it all, there is plenty of time to ride it out.
    For those nearing retirement age, they may look at it differently and not want to wait another ten to twenty years to get back what can disappear basically overnight. That's the thing to remember, the market goes up slowly but can come down very, very fast. But in the long term it usually always goes up.

    You got it, you should always invest appropriately for your GOALS in life, risk tolerance and age. Long term, not short term trading

    My favorite Buffet saying, "Don't RISK what you have and what you need for what you DON'T have and DON'T need". The older you get the more you understand what it means.

    #768 2 years ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    Sure I have lost a lot in the last several weeks, but I also have a mother load of cash and I have been waiting for a pull back for a while now. Drop it more boys and bring on the doom and gloom, there are so many great stocks to shop........I feel like a kid in a candy store!

    Exactly. That’s how you should feel right now

    When you have dry powder to deploy with these fundamentals in tact we can back up the truck on great names we love and it will be some of the easiest money ever made when it snaps back

    As we get into the next two quarterly cycles it will be about how great the economy is, GDP growth and the effect of tax cuts working through the system.

    We are getting to the capitulation point of this panic selling

    I’m buying more Apple today. They will reauthorize their stock buyback program next month to increase the amount from current levels which is $34 bill

    Repatriation is bringing back $250 billion roughly

    And Apple said they want to go cash neutral. That’s dividend increases, acquisitions and stock buy backs

    Happy trading!!!

    #774 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I own some stocks but my main holding is

    Total US index
    Total international index
    Total Bond Fund (or intermediate corporate bond fund)

    All from Vanguard

    Why would you own a "total bond fund"? It gets hammered too with rising interest rates. Floating rate and high yield Vanguard options are better choice imo.

    I think we might have hit the capitulation point. Not that timing it is possible but using Apple as a bellweather for the market it bounced off KEY support levels of $150 and bounced right back up to $155 along with the market.

    I'll keep buying more on dips

    Of course LMT and LLL held firm with the massive defense spending increase just approved.

    #777 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    BND is intermediate bond fund, it’s 5-7 year duration, if it does lose it’ll make up in 5-7 years Plus will be yielding more as interest rates go up so net not loss.

    That's not true. You lose the opportunity cost of buying new bonds that pay a higher interest rate.

    If i own a 7 yr. bond that pays 5% today and rates continue to rise this year further then that same 7 yr bond 1 yr from now might pay 6.5%

    You can hold your bond to maturity versus selling it at a discount and receive 5% while new money is getting a much higher rate potentially and of course the impact of inflation.

    It's called "interest rate risk". Read up on it. High yield, preferreds and floating rate bonds do much better in rising rate environment

    That graph you show is in a period of DECLINING interest rates where the price of bonds go up. That happened for the past 25 years!

    That trade is long gone and that graph is going in the other direction because of rising rates.

    And the YTM yield to maturity in that graph is a pitiful 2.21%, which won't even keep up with inflation.

    #778 2 years ago

    Here you go HYG

    Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 2.13.49 PM (resized).png

    Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 2.13.44 PM (resized).png

    Screen Shot 2018-02-09 at 2.13.38 PM (resized).png

    #780 2 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Ice my bonds are for lessening the risk of my stocks as was showing in that graph.
    Other bonds may pay more interest but may also crash at the wrong time when stocks are crashing.
    We may view bonds differently, I’m using them as ballast to lessen the rocking of the total portfolio.

    I hear you, just point out a potentially better alternative for the "ballast" in this new world of interest rates going forward. Every point or two matters. Some people might be better off in cash versus short term bonds waiting for interest rates to stabilize before you go back in. Either way good luck to you.

    #782 2 years ago

    Encouraging, 10yr stable at 2.85%

    Market turned on a dime when Apple hit $150. High volume as well on a friday afternoon. Good sign.

    Apple will close around $157

    I'll hope for more dips to buy. Market selling looks tired! Boom boom

    #788 2 years ago

    We are back to a buy on the dips market. Apple touched $150 that turn around Friday and now back to $173. Berkshire (Buffet) added more Apple stock in the 1st quarter.

    We haven't seen the end of the volatility. Don't fall asleep on that 10yr treasury rate and Fed

    #793 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I, for one, really appreciate your posts on here. I believe you have the experience to know what you are talking about. I read your every post. In fact, you are one of my favorite posters on Pinside . . . along with 6,000 others. Haaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
    Mike in Kentucky

    Likewise and thanks Mike, we've been around here together for the last 7 years or so! Hopefully for many more years to come.

    Been a terrible year for Kentucky hoops, not much better for my Tarheels and Longhorns though. I hate Duke!!!!

    #804 2 years ago

    Strength in China, upcoming buybacks and big growth in services

    Own, buy on dips and don’t trade Apple

    #805 2 years ago

    And Apple says they plan to go cash neutral. That’s a TON of cash to deploy somehow, R&D, acquisitions, buy backs etc

    What do they have in the pipeline with AI etc that nobody knows about yet that could be “that one next thing”

    Look how fast this stock rebounded. It’s also about as defensive a play as you can make with upcoming additional volatility

    One could argue it is MUCH safer than and longer term bond with the bubble bonds are in and the interest rate risk there. Low duration, floating rate, high yield, TIPS only way to use that market right now

    #810 2 years ago

    And MSFT has a PE of 75! Apple 17x.

    Not that i respect Steve Ballmer, former CEO, but i did hear an interview with him on Cnbc recently asking him about current MSFT valuations and he said he thought about selling his MSFT shares in the mid 70's and obviously glad he didn't. But kind of threw his hands up at today's "crazy valuation".

    I think MSFT will be a great stock to own for the next 20 yrs with its cloud services BUT i would wait for the next pullback and hope to add in the low 70's, may never happen

    #811 2 years ago

    Fyi, not bad performance versus SP500. Always in market 87 risk of 100, but hedging the SP limits drawdown. Max 22%

    Screen Shot 2018-02-16 at 2.51.06 PM (resized).png

    #812 2 years ago

    One more thought for the day!

    "The stock trades at a 10 P/E ex-cash making Apple a huge bargain considering the Services revenue provides plenty of stable growth ahead. After a 20% buyback, the stock would trade below a 10 P/E."

    4 months later
    #825 2 years ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Strength in China, upcoming buybacks and big growth in services
    Own, buy on dips and don’t trade Apple

    Wash, rinse and repeat

    #826 2 years ago
    Quoted from LITZ:

    Once the equity market tops and rolls over you will see ppl going to cash, bonds (if interest rates drop) and utilities.

    I think we better look for alternatives to bonds when it does top out. OAK has a nice return and time to start accumulating in a mature bull market.

    I'm focusing on Dividend Value plays and some other non market correlated asset classes.

    And BRK.B now after the recent selloff. Another way to play a market drop. Nobody better than Buffet at deploying Cash in a downturn and they have $120 billion ready to go.

    Can you let me know when the top out is going to happen?

    #831 2 years ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Dave is great for getting people on track, but I would add that the funds he hawks have very high fees.

    Save like Dave don’t invest like Dave

    Not a fiduciary under the fiduciary duty rule

    Sells products with higher fees to make his crew more money

    3 months later
    #1014 2 years ago
    Quoted from phil-lee:

    A Bond Fund paying 3% for me until the smoke clears, this one may go deeper than expected. I will admit to losing thousands being cautious, but sleep well at night.

    I wouldn't count on that bond fund being safe with rising interest rates unless its "floating".

    Bonds are on course for their worst year in history.

    Gundlach thinks the 10 yr. hits 4% soon.

    #1016 2 years ago

    Btw, the Vix isn't even close to Feb levels of 50 the last time rates spiked, stocks sold off and bonds got crushed. It's 1/2 that at 25

    #1017 2 years ago
    Quoted from vex:

    I have been in canopy growth corp, WEED symbol in Canada for over 2 years. When it got listed on the nyse i bought more in my US trading account. Also hold aurora, ACB. These stocks are still babies in terms of where they will go. CGC will be the amazon of the marijuana sector globally. Major disruptor in many areas on the horizon imo.

    Too many competitors and Big government getting involved imo.

    I sold out of Canopy and bought STZ instead. Wine, wineries, Corona, dividend and 5 billion investment into Canopy

    #1020 2 years ago
    Quoted from vex:

    The 5 billion will benefit both companies. Best of breed in an emerging market is my play. This is a global company with operations in 11 countries and expanding. Which government are you referring to Ice, Germany, Canada, USA, Australia..or one of the other governments from another country they are in or entering in the future?

    I'm thinking all of them. Greedy bastards will let the lobbyists for big pharma crush the little guys like Weed. I agree they are best in breed but they aren't profitable and like Bitcoin, the rug will be pulled out when the dust settles to a more reasonable valuation short term. Just my opinion.

    I'd wait for a pullback to buy again. Too far too fast but Constellation Brands def gives them a floor.

    Aurora Cannibas is up next in the batters box.

    #1022 2 years ago
    Quoted from phil-lee:

    Non-typical Fixed offered through Fidelity I maintain from a 401K with Dow Chemical when I retired. I was prepared for a 90-day move into Mutuals when a threshold was reached today but guess I'm too old and scared.
    Admire you guys working this Market, I used to be a lot braver.

    If you are retired and set for life why take too much risk. No doubt.

    I will say this though, since you are "retired", its a no brainer to roll over your 401k, with LIMITED OPTIONS, into your own IRA with ALL of the options available in the universe of investing.

    Maybe Fidelity allows it through Dow?

    #1030 2 years ago
    Quoted from vex:

    Remember when Netflix mailed DVDs? Yeah that's this imo

    Remember Blockbuster

    I’m thinking of shorting Netflix if it runs up into earnings next Tuesday

    5 months later
    #1135 1 year ago

    MDB. Check it out. Up 25% today

    TTD. Boom boom

    GH. Bought at $47 last month. $96 now. Liquid biopsies

    TWLO. Another Boom boom. Multi bagger coming

    And finally AAPL. Buy on dips and get rich. $142? It’s on a parabolic move now

    #1136 1 year ago





    #1137 1 year ago

    Visa is a Fing Juggernaut

    SQ for a long term multibagger

    Gotta have patience

    #1138 1 year ago

    Okta. Buy off earnings dip

    #1139 1 year ago

    If Boeing drops back down to $330/340 back up the truck

    Remember when Amazon said they were going hard into grocery and Costco dropped to $160?

    What a gift. Use this dip to accumulate BA

    3 months later
    #1189 1 year ago


    Roth conversions

    Gotta understand that

    Taxes are on sale now

    And the new law is RMDS at 72 and inherited iras have to be pulled over 10 yrs

    Pay the tax now. Never pay it again not the compounded growth

    Your welcome. From a CPA, estate planning lawyer and financial advisor with $350 million of assets under management

    #1190 1 year ago

    “Congress is coming for your IRA”

    Read Wall st journal article yesterday

    Taxes will NEVER be lower in your lifetime

    #1194 1 year ago
    Quoted from jester523:

    I converted all my traditional to Roth last year, but now with my business I have a simple IRA, and I cant do a Roth with that, which is lame. Not sure it's worth the 4k in fees to start a 401k.

    No way I'd do a 401k.

    Set it up where your income is separated from the employees in another LLC entity.

    Do a SEP IRA and you can contribute up to $56k or $25k of compensation in 2019. Keep the employees separate so you don't have to contribute for them who don't want it anyhow.

    And yes, you can convert your simple ira to a Roth after 2 yrs of participation

    #1195 1 year ago
    Quoted from donjagra:

    I am glad that you know when I am going to die. But don't tell me, I want it to be a surprise! Some of the reporting that comes out of the wall street journal and cnbc is total crap. Today there was a segment about the spirit animal index, wtf? The hot waitress indicator though... I can get behind that one. Diversify, allocate, and eliminate taxes and fees.

    Dude, the House passed the bill 417-3 and the Senate is on board with only Ted Cruz as the only holdout because he wants to add some obscure provision.

    It's coming. And nobody understands it because its too complicated for most.

    Just like the repeal of the "step up in basis". That's next.

    #1196 1 year ago
    Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

    Wow. My wife just inherited an IRA. Wonder when it will kick in if passed? Good heads up like usual Ice!

    Hopefully not retroactive to Jan 1st and they allow the "stretch ira" benefits for this year

    #1200 1 year ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    Also, 401k taxes are a middle class tax. Rich people don’t need to rely on a retirement savings account and poor people don’t often have one at all or don’t have enough to matter.

    170 million americans have some sort of savings/ira/401k

    The "1 % er" narrative is such BS

    #1201 1 year ago

    Here you go with small cap portfolio since Jan. Obviously Apple is buy and hold and buy more on dips

    Screen Shot 2019-07-10 at 10.41.33 PM (resized).png
    #1203 1 year ago
    Quoted from Vino:

    The new ruling potentially straight jackets tax brackets and leaves less to heirs.
    An emotional moment for some clients when they hear of the news.

    Granted, it doesn't help the massive homeless camps in the Bay Area Vino. Shame on Cali

    5 months later
    #1298 11 months ago

    43 Apple Calls 170 strike, June 2021 exp

    Unrealized gain

    AAPL Jun 18 2021 170.0 Call 4,300 --- 40.2223 172,955.90 -- 120.00 516,000.00 343,044.10 198.34% Short
    3,000 05/14/19 39.7769 119,330.58 -- 120.00 360,000.00 240,669.42 201.68% Short
    1,300 06/10/19 41.2502 53,625.32 -- 120.00 156,000.00 102,374.68 190.91% Short

    #1299 11 months ago

    30 Apple calls, took profit in SEP when Apple was trading around $280 to buy PINS for a trade into mid 2020

    AAPL Jun 18 2021 185.0 Call Sell to Close.FIFO 3,000 06/07/19 91,829.96 12/20/19 302,523.67 210,693.71 229.44% Short

    #1301 11 months ago
    Quoted from plowpusher:

    How much higher can this AAPL run . I have 100% of my retirement in it but still got 6 years left to hit 65

    “Be quick to sell your losers and let your winners run”

    The multiple on the S&P went from 14 to 18 in 2020. Clearly great earnings are needed to continue the rally into 2021

    The consumer is crushing it, makes up 70% of the economy and manufacturing is starting to show signs of life. Low rates, fed accommodating, low unemployment, rising wages the rest of the world coming to life etc. China trade deal phase one all adds up to more clarity for business investment

    Apples multiple went from 13x to 22.7x as the shift to services is becoming more robust, which lead to higher margins, around 64%

    Apple has been grossly undervalued. Is it
    still? No. But MSFT is at a 31x multiple

    I don’t sell my core Apple position. I look to buy on dips. I expect that to continue over the next decade for me

    TTD, AYX, MDB, OKTA, SHOP have been great small caps that I also like to buy on dips. TTD is my favorite. And I added PINS recently

    Not intended as “investment advice” and “past performance is not indicative of future results”

    #1302 11 months ago

    For most investors, read this book 2 or 3 times and you will do better than 90% of professionals link »

    1 month later
    #1377 9 months ago

    Tesla took over the #1 spot on Robin Hood with Millennials, by far, with Apple now #2.

    New thesis for me. Oil & Gas equities are finished. They are the new "tobacco". Fossil fuels are dead unless you want to go for some MLP pipelines for dividends.

    Millennials are all about green energy and young investment managers are going to avoid Oil stocks.

    Most people can't invest over 10 yr periods much less 10 days. Tesla will be a multi bagger from here over that time frame.

    1 month later
    #3213 7 months ago

    Great positive day today. Tough to figure out right guys with all the doom and gloom? The news is going to get better all month, little by little, just like today.

    The numbers? Well, the models appear to be way overestimating the death toll of the virus and new cases are on the decline in many places around the world.

    It's a good sign that the bottom was hopefully put in at $18k already. Retest? Who knows, i'd love another chance to load up.

    The Vix has dropped significantly and small caps led the way back again today, another good sign.

    I'd love to see a few days of just sideways movement. LOL

    #3214 7 months ago

    Buffet sold the airlines and you don't know what he's buying because the 13-F isn't out yet.

    It's gonna be a long road back, if you are a long-term investor why worry?

    Or IF you are so confident in a retest then hit the TZA and HIBS 3x Bear leverage. Should make a killing!

    #3225 7 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    The numbers for testing are still completely inaccurate. Like borderline ridiculous. So I live in Kansas, so low cases (like 845), you would think that testing would be pretty decent, right? I just found out that a local place just found out that someone had tested positive today...however, they were tested on MARCH 27TH!!!!
    Yeah, that's happening TODAY. Like that's how messed up it is still. And in Johnson County, the highest population county in the state, they won't test you unless you're very sick (like going into the hospital). Otherwise they just send you home to isolation without one.
    So how accurate do you think numbers are that are delayed 10 days, aren't testing anyone that isn't hospital bound, etc? Like it's way worse than is being reported here.
    I think we're rounding off possibly in some areas and still growing in others. But I don't see a clear path to return to work anytime soon around here, and we're one of the smallest totals in the nation. I think we can gradually get it down, but even here, one of the easiest spots in the nation, it will probably take 2 more months minimum. It looks like by the end of April we're going to be at a million cases for the nation (which really means 2 million since 50% are only spreaders that don't show symptoms, and we're not testing any of those)...I don't see how you get that from 2 million down to 0 in a month...or two months...or three months....
    I'm a long term investor, but frankly looking at it, I don't see the upside right now. Unemployment is currently estimated at 13%, and after Thursday that number is only going to get worse. So then count the number of Thursdays (which are all going to be bad) till you think this thing is going to subside, and that's the hole we're going to have to dig out of. A ridiculous number of homeowners and small businesses applied for the hardship help, like I don't think they have nearly enough money allocated for it.
    We need a viable treatment asap.

    This is why you have to tune OUT the daily negative drumbeat Taylor

    Tax policy, fed policy, fiscal policy and trade policy all positive

    “Don’t fight the Fed”

    Big picture

    But hey, another great day folks

    FYI, it’s a “new bull market”

    During the past 11 years of market gains 9 single days accounted for 80% of the total market gains

    GL timing that.

    Green chutes guys. Maybe we get a nice dip from here but it will be short lived opportunity

    #3228 7 months ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    This is contrary to what I'm hearing. That a lot of deaths are undercounted because the victim wasn't diagnosed with CoViD-19... if you die in your home they aren't testing necessarily. What about ancillary deaths due to full ERs?
    We may hit peak infection *rate*. That means new cases won't be increasing... but it does mean a steady stream of sick people jamming up hospitals which isn't good. And that's with lockdown. If you lift lockdown, you could accelerate cases again. In order for us to open things back up, we need a breakthrough on our understanding of the disease, or a treatment, or a vaccine. Otherwise it's lockdown for months and the economy won't fare well obviously.

    We can agree to disagree on that one

    But I do agree that breakthroughs are coming after the slew of 24/7 negative news

    Lot of bumps in the road still but place your bets accordingly

    What’s the outlook for 2021? See the pillars I noted above

    #3229 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    There you are Iceman!
    Hey, my advice, go all in today if you think that - right here at Dow major resistance that I've been waiting it to hit for weeks now, Dow 23.7K
    Let's see how those trades you buy today look in a month since you have it all figured out

    What’s up KPG?

    It’s called “buy low”

    Apple was in $230’s a few days ago now $267

    TTD was $200 then $160 two days ago, buy low and now it’s back to $205. $330 45 days ago

    Shopify same thing

    I’ll accumulate stocks I want to own long term on dips

    Day to day? Who knows.

    Tell me where the new bottom is and I’ll be ready to deploy more KPG

    Gl brother

    #3231 7 months ago
    Quoted from barakandl:The results of the market recently shows again I can't predict well whats going to happen. Accumulating strategy remains to hold (basically) forever and buy in regular intervals. When buying opportunities feels good buy more. If it feels bad buy less and pay down the mortgage faster. I do the robo investing. I just set that I want 90% stocks and let the computers pick the spread for me. Feels like its worth the minimal fee to let the robots pick stocks. I'd probably make some bonehead choices at the wrong times based on emotion.

    Hey man you have the right idea long term. Dollar cost averaging, buy low etc.

    As far as the "mortgage paydown", that's just a peace of mind issue because i'd rather buy a stock like EPD pipeline that yields 12% now, wait for the stock to recover and it will cycle back, pay my 3% mortgage and use the gains to pay down a bigger portion when the market rebounds.

    There are any number of opportunities like that that should work out long term, no guarantees, Abbvie is yielding 6.25% and is $20 off its high. etc, etc, etc.

    Bottom line, whatever anyone does here the day to day is impossible and GOOD LUCK to everybody!

    #3236 7 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    What is that telling you? The market is a forward looking voting machine. Think 2021.

    You aren't seeing what others are seeing.

    But i agree with KPG, i'm not buying today, did that 2 days ago, also not shorting it either.

    But IF you believe it's gonna drop again then load up on the 3x inverse Bear ETF's.

    Technically, we have just entered a NEW BULL MARKET. LOL

    #3240 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    We are still in a bear market. Nothing has changed, technical wise, and especially fundamentally.

    That's wrong technically, look it up

    #3243 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I did, and we're still under the 200d moving average, there's still a death cross on every index.
    It's crazy when the market goes up a couple days everyone thinks everything is fine and the world is great all of a sudden.
    It's all technically driven by greed, fear, and algos.
    Today is greed.
    Algos will kick in and help propel your fear next.

    See above, the technical definition. LOL

    I don't make my decisions based on fear and greed.

    I will use the next drop, when it comes to buy in again. And then count the pile happily by the 1st quarter of 2021

    That's just how i roll! And i might throw a short term Vix play or TZA leverage in and out from time to time

    #3268 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I agree with most of what he said. The thing I believe is the market is not factoring in just how bad the economical data is. Much of the news and reports are based from February and early march... just wait until the March numbers come out. Deaths slowing / new Coronavirus cases will be less of a market driver. I truly believe the Virus itself is the appetizer and the economical fallout is the main course. Bear market rally 100%

    It’s not about the economic data right now.

    Any dope knows it’s not gonna be good in the short run

    Live and learn. How much you get paid now for your advice KPG?

    Reading charts in this environment?

    When is the LOW gonna get retested? Not happening

    I’ve got a Starbucks gift card for you brother!

    This is your thread and crew so I’m back out. See you in 2021$$$$$$

    #3269 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I noticed something highly unusual today near the close.
    A MASSIVE amount of volume came into the markets in literally a few seconds. It was weird. Almost a mini-flash crash that went undetected to most people who dont watch this closely.
    Look at the chart and notice the volume bar spike during that timeframe relative to the rest of the day.
    Could have been a massive short position, or some type of huge sell order in the overall markets.. I don't know, but if I was long I'd be nervous right now.[quoted image]

    Seriously? After a 1600 pt move on Monday and you had some selling into the close?

    Worried? Lol

    You tell me when and how much lower it’s going since you know.

    I have to agree with the Apple covered call strategy

    Actually I’ve made a fortune on LEAPS

    Watch where PINS opens manana

    My man Concrete gets it! TZA on a short term down move

    #3288 7 months ago

    Head scratcher ain't it fellas?

    #3290 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:It's all good man. Whatever it is you are doing out there I commend you for being the best there is because you have it all figured out. But please, I invite you to chime in on here and let us know when you are buying those dips and how much you are allocating to your overall portfolio during each buy.

    Lol, def don't have it all figured out. Who does? Buffet just took a bath on the airlines. Us mere mortals even have a chance?

    I'm NOT a day trader for myself or my clients.

    Just long term brother, and i am extremely confident where things will be heading and where we will be this time next year. Yeah that takes patience and isn't sexy but i'll take it.

    I am HOPING for another few days of big plunge to drop in dry powder. Am i going to bet on the possibility it's going to happen? Nope. I'll just be ready when it does.

    The herd is calling for a depression and doom and gloom and so much of that mentality has been priced in. Once again, big picture, Fed policy, fiscal, tax and trade, all check marks. And this virus will pass simply based on the facts in other countries.

    IF the economy doesn't get restarted SOON, and i believe it will because it has to, then i would change my outlook.

    I'm betting on a scenario that economy reopens in stages soon, vaccines, therapeutics, etc. AND that it will be about the economy AND the virus, not the economy versus the virus. I might end up being wrong, who knows, but i'm betting the federal government understands what the situation is with respect to the economy. At least certain people do, the critical ones.

    This is exactly what the market is telling you as well right now. Day to day though? No economic data matters until we get moving again and no way to guage what's gonna happen daily.

    No offense intended to you KPG! We can bust each other's balls. It's ok, all in fun.

    GL with your trading brother!

    #3291 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Nope - Dow is still under 23,700 resistance. Unless it closes on high volume above that, it's playing out just as I expected so far. And if I am wrong, i'll admit in and go long. If you're wrong, you just disappear lol

    Why would you go long based on any chart right now? All the geniuses say it's a given to retest the lows.

    Tell me how you "expect it to play out" over the next several days

    All i care about is where we land by the 4th quarter and into 2021. I'm confident we are seeing a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Could be wrong though?

    If we can get another good dip i'm looking at going in on some call LEAPS for Apple July 17, 2022, strike price tbd. Sold my prior 2021 calls i set in the $150 trading range last year with $170-$180 strike prices

    I can wait out the next few weeks of uncertainty. Might not get the opportunity.

    #3292 7 months ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    I disagree. Just because he doesn't have a snowflake mentality doesn't make it cruel in nature. He's just a bit more positive and it's always fun to read.

    Thank you Methos, POSITIVITY is a great thing brother!!

    No vitriol intended, just poking a little a fun at KPG and he can take it like he dishes it out. People need to lighten it up man! There is enough doom and gloom out there.

    #3313 7 months ago

    I’ve been saying it all along. The numbers don’t add up and invest accordingly

    The IHME dropped the death toll estimate down to 60k from 245k on March 25th. Yes that number included social distancing

    Surprise, the models were WAY off and are being adjusted down every day

    The markets are reflecting that FACT and there will be no avoiding the slow trickle now of good news coming on the back side of that slope

    I’m not saying the market is gonna shoot straight back up. It’s not. I think we are about to enter the lower volatility sideways zone

    #3315 7 months ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    That’s all I needed to see to stay in cash. When people start touting new estimates as FACT, well...

    Good for you but it is a FACT that the estimates are coming down and it appears the markets are reacting to it.

    Bury you head in the sand, but i'd probably stay in cash too if i was already there.

    It's also a FACT that the jobless numbers are gonna be HUGE again. I'm pretty sure that won't be a surprise to anybody but maybe it will.

    I'm not trying to disappoint the doom and gloom depression guys but it is what it is.

    It was another really good day, and excellent news to be optimistic about.

    #3318 7 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Who is modeling this? So New York is going to go from 9000 cases per day to zero in 21 days?
    Forgive me if I seem a little skeptical.[quoted image]

    It's actually the projections referred to today by Cuomo and Dr. Birx

    The media has spiraled this so far out of control that it's hard to imagine anything less that total annihilation is possible.

    The model is based on "actual" results here in the United States now and NOT based on former guesstimates from the Italy disaster and Wuhan numbers.

    It's the SAME model Fauci and Birx relied on partly to predict 100k-240k deaths a few weeks ago

    If it's bad news i believe it, if its good news going in the other direction then something must be off?

    Either way, there is your answer to the short term market move. Whether it sticks, who knows?

    “Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I don’t accept everyday we’re going to have to have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. I think we can really bring that down." Dr. Fauci

    "New York state officials have said they are drawing on at least four different models, including IHME’s."

    #3320 7 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Great. So you 100% believe all this. Here's your chance to make some money then. I bet you $100 that New York has more daily cases than Kansas on May 1st. If you believe the modeling so much, easy money right?

    Who said it was easy? It's just MY opinion trying to make sense of it all. Here is a nice negative perspective article for you guys making the bear case.

    As for the daily cases, we shut down the entire economy based on "models". There are 14,779 deaths as of now in the US, 6,268 of those are in New York state due to the all the various reasons. 498 in the state of California.

    I don't see how there is any way we reach even 60k deaths but the closer we get to the back end the more accurate the models will get from a mathematical certainty.

    If you aren't factoring in these recent developments into your short term investment decisions then you should be.

    Does it make me feel good about plowing new money into this rally? Nope. But i'm confident in the pillars of our economy being intact and ready to restart sooner than expected.

    I'm not saying things are gonna be a bed of roses, they aren't. But the overall market is recognizing the positive green chutes as the curve flattens and we get MORE certainty.

    #3323 7 months ago
    Quoted from dts:

    It would be interesting for pinsiders to post their returns since the start of this thread, and various approaches to the market. I'm more of a buy and hold guy than kpg from his description. My timing was off, as I considered going to cash before this correction...but it was going too well...oops. Still off 20% but there are some good values out there right now, so I'm doing both moving some to cash and investing in other equities.

    It's been a great time to rebalance and focus on certain sectors and individual stocks and avoid others.

    I don't know of anyone that's every been able to capture all of the upside in a market and none of the down

    My analogy is like the pilot who comes on and says "its time to buckle up, we might experience a rough ride up ahead". Maybe they change altitude to find some smoother air or try and fly around the storm? Either way, you the pilot and passenger will eventually get through the rough ride and land safely at your destination!

    It's nice to be able to take a positive breather for a bit after that white knuckle roller coaster

    Maybe i'm just pissing in the wind here and none of this makes a bit of sense to anybody! Oh well.

    #3327 7 months ago
    Quoted from sd_tom:

    assume the models estimating down is because the extreme efforts are actually working though, not that the models were wrong.. i sure hope that's not the message people are getting or the next time we'll be f'd.

    That's the excuse some are using Tom for being wrong. No, the models included "social distancing" in them originally.

    There aren't any do-overs or excuses for "extreme social distancing" now. Models were flat out WRONG and scientists admit to it all the time!

    “Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

    And no accountability for being wrong either. But hey, you are correct, we will be much better prepared next time!

    These predictions or lack thereof are having a huge impact on the market swings. Make no mistake, "economic models" are often way off and wrong as well.

    The bottom line is that the markets are reacting to the gold standard Dr. Fauci acknowledging the fact that "as you get data in, you modify your model".

    Logically, as positive data is coming in, the models are being revised downward, quickly, with respect to the death toll and that lends itself to a quicker and safer re-launch of the economy, thus a market swing to the positive.

    #3332 7 months ago

    To make a wise informed investment decision you have to be educated to both sides of any argument and consider the alternatives.

    I'd agree with KPG that the rally feels stretched and further bolstered by the RSI going to from way oversold to quickly approaching 70, i think we closed at 65 or so today?

    Not to mention that the futures are drifting slightly lower.

    Patiently awaiting a pullback in this new bull market.

    #3341 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Futures are very low volume and easily manipulated - they are currently up big looking to squeeze shorts on the open as I suspected. Mnuchin knows all about this as Goldman traders have bragged for years how they could literally use enough capital to buy futures and create a gap up the next day to squeeze shorts. You better believe the Fed is working behind the scenes to do this. Futures are a total scam.
    But one thing that makes me feel pretty confident the next wave down of this bear market is coming, is because of Iceman popping into this thread.
    Now that we see an extended rally, the "super bulls" come out and think everything is fine and it's a new bull market. They have very short memories of the bloodbath that was occuring in the markets the previous month. This is all the same thing I saw during the last crash and Iceman is the perfect contrarian indicator.
    No offense of course to you Iceman. Don't take it personal. You're just one of many I see from time to time pop their heads out after the market has made a big move, and it's a bearish sign. Buy on fear, sell on greed... And a 6000+ pt move off the low and some nice gains will make people greedy for more.

    I don't take it personal brother. Just adding my two cents from time to time when the opportunity presents itself and people might need a little additional input.

    People can scroll back through this thread since inception and see my comments, especially as it pertains to Apple.

    "Buy when there is blood in the streets", yes. And i don't see a ton of "greed" right now. Trillions of cash sitting on the sidelines.

    6.6 million more jobs lost and up we go. 1) Fed policy, don't fight the fed 2) tax policy, low taxes 3) trade policy, china, mexico, canada, and what's coming 4) fiscal policy, that is speaking for itself right now.

    Get ready for the trickle of GOOD NEWS mixed in, with respect to starting the market. Did i say "DON'T FIGHT THE FED"?

    How many people missed the move because they "buy high and sell low"? Goldman Sachs economists are no better than the science modelers All economists for that matter.

    Even CNBC talking heads are walking back their "doom and gloom" take down after the fact as per usual.

    As for popping in, I'm ALWAYS in touch with the market 24/7, it's what i get paid to do, with approx. 500 mill AUM. . Ok, now back to work.

    Adding some perspective to this NEW bull market, that's it, GL trading brother!

    #3358 7 months ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    This is starting to remind me more and more of the late 80's.
    Higher taxes will almost certainly have to come within 5 years to offset the debt that is building.

    This debt is borrowed at such low rates the runway will be much longer than 5 years. A few trillion here or there is nothing these days. LOL

    And btw, that's the actual COST of saving 60,000 people. Not to be crass or insensitive.

    But undoubtedly, if you aren't taking advantage of doing Roth Conversions while taxes are on sale, up to the 24% marginal bracket, then you can't see the higher taxes on future RMD train coming down the track!

    Plan accordingly, we have done a ton of Roth conversions for clients that are eligible, not beyond the 24% income bracket, pay taxes while equities are down AND get the tax free ride back up.

    #3359 7 months ago

    KPG is long now! Blew through 23,700 resistance. All in brother?

    #3383 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Oh hell no man.
    This is what I said I thought would happen yesterday and it's playing out, gap market up huge to squeeze shorts and get the bulls to jump in - we arent closed yet, the 23,700 area is still being battled - a little spike over is not a confirmation just yet. I'll definitely tell you when I will get in long though.
    Total coin flip right here in the markets - very interesting to watch. I can't get in until there is a convincing move with high volume. Its all about how it closes today so I likely wont do anything because of the long weekend. Anything can happen at this point. Which reaffirms why I exited all short positions yesterday, money saved is money earned.
    By the way, spoke with a friend who works at Pimco yesterday and they said they are in the process of becoming more "liquid" .. as in raising cash and selling equities into this.. if that tells you anything.

    Yeah, i've seen El Erian's commentary the prior several weeks. I wish i would have heeded his warning at the outset of this downturn. He's been pretty silent since the end of March.

    Allianz keeps a tight conservative reign on Pimco and subs, it's their German nature . "Bond King" Bill Gross found out the hard way, but his arrogance did him in and El Erian ultimately won that battle.

    I like Santoli, he had a good chart on the S&P today. Pointing to a breakout above this level, but, i'll believe it when i see it. I'd prefer some consolidation and side ways action or a drifting lower.

    We are about to get quarterly commentary from these companies, the problem is it might be meaningless, except in the case of Disney's recent type news, they are all pulling their "forward guidance".

    3rd and 4th quarters we pull out of the "technical recession" dramatically. It seems so far away and fear and panic still grip this country and the markets. That should create further opportunity. We shall see!

    Have a great weekend fellas!

    #3443 7 months ago

    Trade Desk

    Nice Day on the long term journey!

    #3447 7 months ago

    Roku up big after hours on prelim numbers

    TTD following

    20 day and 50 day moving averages all that is relevant Right now

    Market held support at 2730 closing at 2735, on the way to 2650 if that level doesn’t hold and then a possibility to fill the gap down to 2450

    Great businesses with excellent balance sheets and little to no net debt win

    Liquidity is awash all over the marketplace

    If current levels hold shorts are gonna experience another round of short term pain!

    #3458 7 months ago

    Apple, TTD, Shop.

    Goldman Sachs. LOL. Great call once again, "we might have already put the coronavirus bottom in". Not what their chief economist Kostin was saying a week ago.

    Looks like the Nasdaq is going to exit bear market territory today.

    "Recession", "bear market", terms never meant less in this virus government induced shutdown.

    Looks like the reality of the virus good news is taking hold now and now they are talking all over themselves on who has the best answer to reopen the economy!

    Numbers NEVER added up. Economists and Scientists with their modeling, oh boy.

    #3459 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    To clarify I didn't mean most of his shares, but most of his actually airline names - as in Delta and Southwest, the biggest positions he has. He sold close to a 1/2 Billion which is a lot to me still

    According to SEC filings1 , Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly 13 million shares of Delta Airlines (DAL) last Wednesday for around $314 million, and 2.3 million shares of Southwest(LUV) for around $74 million on Thursday.

    Chump change for the Oracle.

    And the two best airlines btw

    #3461 7 months ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Lots of talk about lifting the stay at home bans. If that gets some lift, we could see an uptick.

    Texas governor is also announcing his own plan. 295 total deaths, entire State shut down.

    Markets figured it out last week.

    And then when nothing else makes sense? "Don't fight the fed".

    #3526 7 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    My question is: The govt. is just now getting around to actually sending out the money from the news pump from 3 weeks ago.
    If the market proceeds to tank and the govt. is still struggling to get the "original" money out on the streets, what does it do for an encore in an effort to prop up the markets?
    Pledge to send out even more money?
    I am keeping my pinball machines as a hedge against the inflation that I see coming. (I really do not see inflation coming, but I do wonder how inflation will be avoided ).

    It reopens the economy brother Cotton!

    And yes, you haven’t seen round 4 yet

    As for inflation, if and when that happens the Fed will be there to suck up excess liquidity, they will at some point anyhow.

    At that point, is when you’ll see a re pricing of assets and a market decline to really get excited about. Will make the 4th quarter of 2018 look like peanuts

    The fed and fiscal stimulus have put a floor under this market in the short term, primarily the Fed, and any day to day action should just be bouncing around a tighter range

    Unless, the shutdowns linger which is doubtful, the protesting has only just begun, people have had it

    #3527 7 months ago

    Unemployment claims tomorrow? 5 million more? Like the virus, it’s peaking and then declining. Not enough people left to destroy in this carnage!

    Patiently awaiting another dip

    #3528 7 months ago

    Here are your charts and resistance levels for the traders

    2725 and 2650 next steps for S&P on the downside

    2650 represents the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Below that, the lines represent the additional Fibonacci retracement points

    #3532 7 months ago

    Something to ponder for down the road.

    As economies build up massive debt on top of debt due to the virus the only way out will be to inflate their way out.

    Paying back all that debt in dollars or currency that is worth a lot less than when originally borrowed. Bad for lenders

    Like musical chairs, Global currency devaluations are coming down the road like a pandemic

    #3535 7 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    So when is the time to buy gold?

    That's the right question to ask if you believe that premise. With massive gold reserves should the US go back to the "gold standard"? Used to be considered a fantasy, now it's part of the discussion in some circles.

    It would prevent the government from printing money at will and run up larger deficits to increase the national debt and inflation would become rare again, not that we have it now but.... right now we have fiat money created out of thin air.

    But how would we do without all this Fed and fiscal policy manipulation? LOL

    "Full faith and credit"

    #3536 7 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Aren't you glad you are not trying to sell annuities for a living?

    I don't get the connection?

    I would say the purchasing power of our future currency is going to be worth a whole lot less than it is today, a race to the bottom.

    What will "cash" or "cash equivalents" be worth down the road?

    #3537 7 months ago

    Are we in the "eye of the hurricane"? The initial blast was brutal. The back end of the hurricane could deliver a longer and more sustained blow. Or, it might just peter out with clearer skies ahead?

    You are going to have an unfunded pension crisis get worse, along with local and state governments trying to figure out how they are going to make up lost revenue. Govt Pension funds are way down and $5.2 trillion of pension debt could swamp states on the heals of this shutdown. Alaska, California, Connecticut, Illinois etc. etc. etc.

    Thinking out loud here.

    #3545 7 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Ice I like your posts, you're a smart dude and have some good info that I can agree with. From what I can tell, you are bearish on the fundamentals of the economy and where it is headed.
    What is your current reason and conviction to be so heavily invested at this moment? Is it the confidence the Fed will provide enough liquidity to keep the market grinding higher?
    Not trying to wage a battle here at all as clearly the Fed is attempting to prop this up similar to all of the Quantitive easing rounds we saw from 2009-2016 to get the market to rip higher.. but I just would like to know what exactly keeps you in, and do you hedge at all?
    If so, how do you hedge to the downside?
    The big boys stay long with huge positions and very few people know how they profit even if those stocks go down or stay sideways. In fact many of the big boys don't even make most of the profit off the shares themselves.
    Just wondering how you navigate this market and what strategies you are using to hedge your long positions and have downside protection.

    Man i'm just trying to think it through like you and everyone else KPG.

    The recent Fed action along with the massive fiscal flood of $$ and the reopening chatter gives me some comfort in the short term. But like i said, i fear we might just be in the eye of the storm and i'm not sure how long that lasts. I'm trying to focus on excellent businesses with great balance sheets and little to no debt for the longer term holds.

    For me personally, I'm sitting in 50% cash right now, with big positions in TTD, SHOP, PINS and Apple and a basket of other smaller long term positions. I'm also trading SHOP and TTD, smaller float and large short interest, so the squeeze can produce some wild swings like it did the last several days, and these are stocks i want to own long term anyhow if i get stuck.

    I've used TZA at times to hedge those small caps. I closed out 75 Apple 2021 LEAP call contracts purchased last summer before i wanted to for big gains, but as a result have to pay ordinary tax rates of 37% but just had to take those chips off the table. I'll be looking do the same thing again for 2022 calls if we get close to a retest of the lows.

    The cost of hedging longer term is expensive. For example, buying S&P 500 puts to hedge requires good timing. It costs about 3% a quarter roughly to hedge against a 20% downside move and up until now that was just a drag on performance, and as you noted, especially difficult when the implied volatility is elevated like it is now. I don't find that as a good option for my clients across the board but maybe in certain cases where the need for access to the money is more short term oriented.

    I've used the VIX as a hedge for a few big accounts when it was trading in the teens. That worked out well.
    Covered calls on big positions like Apple. I haven't used much GLD at all and avoided commodities for the last 6 or 7 years thankfully.

    For about 10% of the overall Aum i use a third party unconstrained tactical manager (algorithm) to protect against bigger drawdowns, costs 25 basis points and i can raise that % up if i feel we are heading into a prolonged downturn. They just don't perform as well on the way up.

    Right now I'm around 80% equities and 20% fixed, mostly VGSH, to avoid interest rate and credit risk. High yields and preferred's were down 15-20% recently, and like Buffett i don't like bonds and people shouldn't pay anyone to manage them, especially at these yields, i'll look for alternatives or stay on the short end of the curve for dry powder.

    Currently, I'm getting prepared for move to a higher % to cash via "Irebal" if starts to look like we are just passing through the eye of the storm. TD Ameritrade is my custodian. I can move and rebalance approx. 1700 accounts over 45 different models i use, to all cash short term, add a hedged position in the models or just a higher % of cash, in about 15 minutes, and at zero cost now. There are certain positions in most accounts that are "locked" and don't get rebalanced.

    Apple represents approx. 20% of the Aum, Visa is a distant second i believe, which have given us an excellent cushion over the last few years. Just filed my 13F.

    And we still have to consider the tax consequences as well in taxable accounts but in these times you "can't let the tax tail wag the dog".

    I don't know Kpg, I'm just trying to get prepared as best as possible for whatever comes next short term, with an underpinning of a long term strategy.

    #3547 7 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Selling annuities is a function of interest rates. We are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. 20 years ago when rates got down to 6%, I did not think they would go lower. Boy, was I wrong. And here we are at essentially 1%. How does one sell an annuity with 1% rates?

    Yeah, i think you'd have to be crazy to lock in on and buy a 3-5 yr term which pays a fixed rate of 2.5-3%?

    A 1 yr CD today at 1.5%, a 5 yr CD at 1.65%? How does that sound to you? LOL

    I suppose some people want zero risk but i'd rather sit in money market or VGSH. The current yield is 2.10% and the expense ratio is .05 versus the ishares SHY at .15

    The 10 yr treasury actually closed at 64 basis points today. Why would you invest in that unless you thought rates were going to keep going lower? I wouldn't.

    #3548 7 months ago
    Quoted from Oaken:

    I don’t like bearish iceman44 . I need that positive brovado to be the counterbalance to my negative Nancy tendencies.

    I'm not really "bearish",still very optimistic, just taking a pragmatic and level headed approach to the unknowns that are facing us Oak! Gotta look at both sides of the argument.

    I worry that reopening the economy ASAP is just becoming a political football as opposed to what needs to be an economic necessity, immediately.

    This SBA small business bailout is a shit show. I've talked to several clients and others that have gotten no response back from their banks, while watching the money run out today, and hearing of stories of high profile businesses like Ruth Chris and others get millions.

    It might be another shafting of the true small businesses out there and the current 350 billion appears to be not nearly enough!

    #3569 7 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    If you have a negative view towards certain high tech stocks such as NVDA, APPL, SHOP, etc., what is the best option in terms of taking a short position over the next six months to a year? Do a put spread on QQQ or is there another security that trends in the same direction as these high tech stocks? Is there something similar to SQQQ that isn't triple the play on the NASDAQ 100 and is option eligible? Thanks for the advice.

    SHOP $346 on April 2nd, closed today at $526.

    I really like TTD, AAPL and SHOP long term and maintain a position through the ups and down. NVDA as well.

    If you believe the market is going to retreat, some people are using the TZA which is a triple leveraged play against small caps.

    On another note, market up last three trading days on these unemployment numbers.

    And i think we could see deflation and asset repricing for the next two years or so before the currency printing presses catch up and inflation explodes. Who knows?

    #3571 7 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    After hours is pretty happy with some drug trials right now

    Yep, GILD up big.

    #3579 7 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    FBT is a Biotech ETF, up 3.5% aftermarket...

    Seems like every drug company is rocking

    I’m a huge Apple guy, watch it every day for years, read every detailed report etc.

    No way Apple should be trading at $295 right now imho but will take it for my clients

    It’s a reminder that buying any broad index is crazy right now. $$$ is flowing into certain no brainer stocks like AMZN and AAPL

    And travel, commercial reits and oil & has have already been taken out to the woodshed so shorting opps there are limited. Much pain still to come

    Gotta focus on individual stocks that will survive and thrive in these conditions and beyond.

    Transformational companies

    And those have already bounced to crazy prices in last 8 days

    #3603 7 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Good question. I went to Universal 20 years go. Social distancing of 6 feet minimum will not happen easily. And how many parents with kids are going to have the money for, what I heard was, $100.00 a ticket?

    see link above

    #3631 7 months ago
    Quoted from taz:

    I wonder which oil stocks might be worth a good buy today? OXY, CVX, HAL, XOM? Do any of you plan to tip your toes into these waters today?

    Not me

    EPD, pipeline safer, toll booth

    SHOP anyone?

    $346 on April 2nd

    #3633 7 months ago

    General Disclaimer on my comments posted here. Just for informational purposes only.

    "These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page. The information, analysis, and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or entity.

    This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security.

    Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.

    Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The general information contained in this publication should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional.

    Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.

    The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity."

    #3635 7 months ago

    With that in mind, see disclosure above but i've just bought into IBB biotech for myself. Look at the 5 yr chart, mostly large cap. Breakout to new 52 week highs. Coronavirus.

    #3637 7 months ago

    Just sold my SHOP, will wait for a pullback

    #3655 7 months ago
    Quoted from Kneissl:


    Like em all long term!

    There is a bull market going on in online and anything related and bear market in everything else.

    Can't find much to buy in sectors i like. Did buy some IBB and DIS at close.

    My former Oil & Gas law professor partner who passed away last year is rolling over in his grave right now! Lost everything in the 80's and became a professor as a result.

    Like then, there have been fortunes made and lost today with the move on May futures. I'm wondering which hedge funds got that trade right.

    #3658 7 months ago

    June contracts on WTI are still trading at $21.

    There is no place to store Oil and no demand for it.

    Is it going to get much better by June?

    #3661 7 months ago

    El Erian's viewpoint. I'm going to be on a private Q & A conference call with El Erian and Allianz CEO Walter White (not Breaking Bad lol) on thursday.

    I'll provide a little summary fwiw after the call.

    #3677 7 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I am trying to think of all the industries that revolve around aviation: Aluminum, electronics, all kinds of machine shops and casting shops will take out the machine tool industry. Machine tools use lots of steel. Rubber tires. Landings eat up tires. No landings no tires. Paint sales will take a hit with less planes are being built. There are a lot of jobs in these industries.

    65 million jobs and 3.6% of worldwide GDP per the article above

    #3749 7 months ago

    PINS Pinterest up on Snapchat report, SNAP up 30%, PINS is the much better business, balance sheet, profitability wise and growth opportunity fwiw. PINS reports on May 5th. Should be interesting to see what happens.

    #3757 7 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I sort of agree with you. But no one saw this pandemic coming. But still, I would prefer these companies be selling stock to raise cash instead of Uncle Sugar having to step up.
    I don't understand the hate all for buybacks. If a company is being back overvalued shares, that would be a no-no. But if the stock is fairly valued or undervalued, why not buy back some of those shares?
    I can say this: I would rather a company I owned stock in was buying back shares as opposed to having a company keeps selling shares and diluting my ownership. When I use to look at the 10-Ks I always looked at the fully diluted numbers.
    Apple/AAPL has been doing a fairly good job with its buybacks. And it has been careful with its acquisitions. A lot of market pundits have been busy the last few years saying Apple should buy this and Apple should buy that.

    A buyback is great for the shareholders, in Apple’s case.

    Think about all the shares repurchased on the way up for the $85 range and the value added along the way

    With Apple the total yield is about 6%

    1.5% div yield that you pay tax on in a taxable account

    Approx 4.5% yield now on the stock buyback program that you pay no tax on until you sell the stock

    Not bad all things being equal

    #3776 7 months ago

    5 pages of notes from conference call I’m going to summarize for my clients

    Bottom line, “follow the fed”

    Yes the fed can fix it all if it so chooses and decides to go “all in” into the equity markets

    Don’t take my word for it. El Erian big picture

    #3795 7 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    The Fed can’t hold this market up forever and the longer they try the worse the fall will be when it happens, as they will be out of ammunition to stop it.

    That’s not how El Erian sees it

    They have already stepped into the high yield market. Something never thought possible, picking winners and losers.

    “Whatever it takes”

    “Journey and the Destination”

    Risk brings opportunity

    Invest bottom up and in companies that the world is coming to them. Healthcare, technology

    Gonna post summary in a bit

    #3797 7 months ago

    When you say “the market” that is the point

    Avoid broad indexes

    Resilience, agility and optionality

    Did I mention PINS a while back?

    TTD, SHOP, AMZN, AAPL, OKTA, MDB to name a few

    GOOGL on 5G and driverless

    “Don’t get caught in traps”. Old way of thinking

    2 weeks later
    #4030 6 months ago

    It’s been a great 40 days!


    The technology bull market is full steam ahead. Why fight it? Bottoms up, forget indexes

    I’m looking to build my stocks “in the ditch” model that will ultimately reach the destination

    JPM, CCL, TJX, BA, EPD, DIS for starters

    Banking on a boom boom 2021

    #4031 6 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    MDB. Check it out. Up 25% today
    TTD. Boom boom
    GH. Bought at $47 last month. $96 now. Liquid biopsies
    TWLO. Another Boom boom. Multi bagger coming
    And finally AAPL. Buy on dips and get rich. $142? It’s on a parabolic move now

    From over a year ago

    #4032 6 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:


    Also over a year ago, how did TDOC slip in there Jan of 2019?

    #4034 6 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I’m still watching BA, if they get the 737 approval the stock could really take off! It has really been left behind in this rally.

    Takes patience for the story to play itself out.

    Just the positive news announcements coming should help BA outperform the index by a wide margin

    Buy BEFORE the news

    Like Disney.

    Tech has been driven to levels too far too fast in the short term

    But I’m waiting to buy on any dips!

    #4086 6 months ago

    No retest of lows, in a trading range that will persist until and WHEN a vaccine is announced. Then its game over

    Just my prediction. You typically don't get a second massive bite at the Apple like that one. I wish it would happen, we know how the movie ends.

    Meanwhile it's still a tale of two economies. TTD, SHOP, TWLO, AYX, DDOG, SE, NOW, PYPL, MELI, PAYC, FSLY and the 4 horsemen, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and MSFT.

    It's time to start looking at beaten down REIT's like BAM, STOR, DOC, ACC, IRT to name a few. Fortunes were made post 2008. REIT's tripled in the following two years.

    I'm also against rationalizing to yourself that "it's different this time", the four most dangerous words in finance. Investors get scared and rationalize why they should sell. Betting against the USA the past 240 years has been mistake, how's that for a trend?

    Gotta be ready to deploy capital in different phases. Disney will make new highs in 2021. DIS, BA, BAM, TJX, CCL, EPD are a few of my "in the ditch" stocks that should significantly outperform over the next 18 months. Not buying BA and CCL yet

    Like I said, WHEN the vaccine is announced you better not get caught with your shorts down.

    #4098 6 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    No retest of lows, in a trading range that will persist until and WHEN a vaccine is announced. Then its game over

    Today is Just a little prelude to what's coming. Did i have inside info?

    DIS up 7.5%. Shorts are getting drummed.

    Look at the airlines up 10% and other beaten down sectors. Banks up 7%.

    Get your "in the ditch" favorites ready.

    Netflix down on vaccine hopes.

    #4099 6 months ago

    "Gotta be ready to deploy capital in different phases. Disney will make new highs in 2021. DIS, BA, BAM, TJX, CCL, EPD are a few of my "in the ditch" stocks that should significantly outperform over the next 18 months. Not buying BA and CCL yet

    Like I said, WHEN the vaccine is announced you better not get caught with your shorts down."

    1 week later
    #4170 6 months ago

    When it comes to SS I like to bet to live

    Delaying SS to age 70 is what I’ll do as of now. I’m 57. It also depends big time on what the tax laws look like in 10 yrs

    The power of compounding on that extra 8% each year adds up especially when that COLA inflation kicks in

    AND, if you love your wife at that point then her survivors benefit would be based on that much higher amount, assuming she doesn’t predecease

    AYX and SE have crushed it lately and 2 long term holds for me along with TTD, NOW, FSLY, MDB, MELI and of course AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT

    Just added GMED last week. Hoping SHOP pulls back to go back in on it

    Forgot to mention PINS. One of the few not at all time highs in my universe of tech/social media stocks

    Breakout is just a matter of time. 6-9 months. “Event planning” took a big hit. Obviously. Partnered with SHOP

    MPW, BRX and STOR are 3 of my favorite REITS to buy now

    #4194 6 months ago
    Quoted from Mike_J:

    Disney up over 20 points in what seems like less than 10 trading days.

    No brainer

    And here come the rest of the “in the ditch” stocks that will make it to the Destination

    “Bottoms up”

    #4197 6 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    What’s the destination though? The market PE is going to go north of 30 here probably this next quarter at a minimum. That’s what I’m trying to figure out here. I have websites that I run that indicate sales and advertising $$$ have fallen significantly year over year. So it reaches February highs, then what? Is a really high PE the new normal?
    That’s what I’m trying to figure out. So the fed is causing this reinflation of assets, when does the price discovery take place? Like next year? The year after that? Never?

    The Fed pumping trillions of dollars into "the market" causes assets to re-price. "Don't fight the fed" as they say. Happens every time. The enormity of the dollars is unprecedented. S&P is at 23 p/e right now and it's meaningless.

    FORWARD looking 2021 earnings are being priced in at 18x according to Fundstrat. That's meaningful and relatively cheap given current conditions.

    Given where interest rates are, monetary policy is and fiscal stimulus 20x is "fair value" for the broad market based on 2022 predictions of $200 to $220 per share and certainly not a ridiculous number. That puts the S&P 500 at 4,000 in a year. Food for thought.

    Investors are anticipating that the 2nd quarter is going to be the trough and the 3rd quarter will post some of the biggest numbers in history due to the restart.

    This rally is going to continue because of all of the above, with bumps in the road. Fear and panic is subsiding despite media attempts to keep it alive, the world is re-opening and there WILL be a vaccine and therapeutics. And the "second wave" is another fear tactic that will NOT shut down the economy if it were to happen to any degree.
    Another prelude today of what's coming with Novavax positive trial info this time.

    "Bottoms up" individual stock investing is my preferred method and NOT index or "market" investing.

    See above statement again.

    The "S&P 500 market" is a tale of many different markets. Why would i buy the whole market? I'd have to own Netflix AND AMC theatres, airlines and other industries i don't want to own. Or short it? Want to get trampled by TTD, SHOP, AAPL, AMZN and other "new economy" stocks etc?

    Growth and momentum was in the back seat and flat today. My preference under the current political, tax, monetary and fiscal environment. P/e's will always seem high, and deservedly so in some cases.

    We will look back on this time 6 months from now and say, how did i miss out on CCL at $14 per share, up 12.5% today, DIS when it's back at $150 per share. Hilton, Marriott, BKNG etc. etc. etc. Some of these stocks have already had massive rebounds and some will have longer recoveries but the excellent businesses will get to the Destination if they can survive the journey and it will be at much higher prices.

    The VIX is at 28, it hit 85 in March. Not going back there.

    The funny thing is, "the market" is not worried about China yet! If there were no pandemic for the media to bang 24/7 then i suspect we'd see the VIX pop on China trade and cold war fears.

    Plus, "the market" is pricing in virtually ZERO election risk right now and making the calculus that independents and more moderate blue's will be able to discern the differences going on right now with Red versus Blue re-openings. That a BIG part of the calculus right now subject to shifting.

    Anyhow, that's my take at the moment.

    I'll be looking to rebalance a portion of the portfolio from growth/momentum to "in the ditch" very soon.

    Can't wait until the positive news happens and gets confirmed in July, August and September, too late then to catch the coming tsunami.

    #4198 6 months ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    Looking at buying some options. Can someone tell me how much these will cost ?
    [quoted image]

    Look at your table of strike pricing and expiration dates and decide how far out you want to go what "strike price" you want to set and then determine how many contracts you want to buy.

    #4246 6 months ago

    Jotted down some rough draft thoughts this morning for my commentary I'll send out later today. China news conference should be interesting.

    #4250 6 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    I see what you're saying, but in 2008 one sector (the 2.5% real estate sector) took down everyone, starting with finance. The energy sector (3%) has hurt the economy many times like in 2005 with Katrina. If Biden wins and reverses the tax cuts, then profits would be slashed by quite a bit too.
    On a side note, why are you even buying stocks ice? For the average person who may not have the means it makes sense as an entry point, but you clearly have the means to actually own businesses or real estate which would make way more money than the market. A lot of businesses are only at a 3x multiple, that's substantially better than anything you could get from Wall Street. Or besides wall street, private equity makes way more too as an investor as well with tax advantages. And it's not affected by tweets and political squabbles on a daily basis.

    Post 2008 REITS rallied 300% over the next 2 years. Buying a handful now. STOR, MPW, FRT, BRX, IRM, BAM. There are 24 positions in my Core REIT model.

    As for “buying stock”. I’m just giving you guys some of my own ideas fwiw

    I manage about $600 million of client assets. That's my business. I also own real estate which is a bad investment by comparison. Terrible actually!

    But when I can make +100% returns since April 2nd in stocks like TTD, TWLO, SHOP and a few others


    And AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL etc

    Read my commentary and take it for what it’s worth.

    I’ve crushed it for myself and my clients

    Just bought some CCL for myself. "in the ditch" that's coming back

    #4252 6 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    For some reason I thought you were a lawyer. Obviously if you're managing 600 million and making 6 million a year doing that (assuming normal 1% fee) then you're crushing it. And if you're able to exceed the normal 7% or 8% return on the stock market every year, that's pretty amazing honestly, very few guys that can do that.
    I'm surprised your real estate hasn't been doing that well. Real estate has been crushing it for 10 years now, much better return than the stock market average if you're using any kind of leverage.
    As far as the guy above who asked about businesses, there are guys doing really well with:
    car washes (low risk)
    laundromats (low risk)
    self storage (low risk)
    web based business (higher risk)
    gas stations (higher risk)
    Not restaurants generally.
    Lots of businesses for sale at 3x NOI, meaning that if you pay 300k for it, it will generate 100k net income. Generally, the more stable the business, the higher that multiple goes. Lot of guys are trying to retire and can't find a buyer for their business. Some are good, some are bad, depends on how much the business depends on the owner to actually run.

    Yeah I love small businesses like that. Have set up and advise many clients, LLC’s. Entrepreneurs are great

    Execution is crucial even in the right business

    I started as a CPA, then attorney and started as a financial advisor in 1999 with my partner and an actual “investment” guy

    Started on my own around 2006 and now I integrate legal, tax and financial planning in one place

    My fees start at 80 basis points and go down from there, which includes estate planning, wills and trusts, tax planning and tax returns for some

    We want to provide more for clients and charge less. It’s been a great model!

    Investment wise I pay a lot of money for research from Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, Guru Focus etc and then build models screening their research and due diligence

    I only give this info for context for people here if I post something

    I think it’s great to get all opinions. You learn every day in this business

    #4293 5 months ago


    Urban Class A shopping with cap rates at 6-7.5% puts this REIT at $30-$44 per share. Was trading at $37 before Covid.

    Started buying at $8.58 last week and up big Friday, 20%, buying more on Monday.

    RISKY, and IF you believe the recovery will continue faster like I have called “in the ditch” scenario then it has a lot of upside potential.

    I’ll post my last week commentary on additional reasons why market is where it’s at. A few more reasons.

    #4299 5 months ago

    Sent this out last week as a follow up to my "China Tensions..." commentary.

    Adding to my why we are where we are currently thesis fwiw.

    50 Day Rally.pdf

    #4302 5 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I think we will have a sell off tomorrow.

    Tuesday? Lol

    Stanley Druckenmiller "humbled by the market rally" on his bad call 3 weeks ago

    "Where he got things wrong? First, Druckenmiller said he underestimated "how many red lines and how far the Fed would go." Second, he failed to anticipate the "excitement of reopening," and the effect it would have on some of the hardest-hit names."

    "Don't fight the Fed"! Why would you NOT believe what the Fed had been saying all along? Re-opening excitement? Our region is nearly back to normal. Big box stores were packed yesterday.

    Fed chair Powell can undo a lot of this with his comments this week. That will be a big moment. Gotta believe it's still petal to the metal.

    CCL is rising again pre market. So is MAC, I'm letting those winners run for big profits. So many "in the ditch" stocks that will be higher to varying degrees from this point. To a lesser degree since they have already come back significantly, MAR, HLT, VAC, BKNG etc. Added SRC to my REIT list

    fwiw, SPG is another way to spread out REIT risk with MAC and STOR, yeah i know, "but bricks and mortar is dead". Don't think so. And fyi, SPG tried to buy MAC in 2016 for $95 per share.

    All we need is a 2X or 3X there.