I should have bought more of RBLX, it pumped 10% today!

Well at least you still have time to catch the SNAP knife.

I've been holding RBLX too...but I think I'm going to offload it before Friday. I'm actually getting worried holding on to some of these nose bleed tech stocks.

I looked at SNAP and decided not to pull the trigger. But, I don't think you can lose that much after the 30% give back. Microsoft and AMD are on my radar, looking for an opportunity to get in at a lower multiple.

The BRK.B I bought Jan 2023 is now up 25% - Not parabolic, but I'm good with that.

AMZN I bought Oct 2023 is now up 31% - Nice to have a few winners for once...

Our analyst likes Paypal - the good news is it's not an expensive stock. Could be a buying opportunity here. Have to be in it longer term.

The new CEO and CFO delivered a clear message “this is a
transition year”, which will require fast execution, reinvestment of cost
savings and a strong focus on branded checkout and unbranded (Braintree)
product innovation. Although the negative mix shifts continue in the
business, management is embedding flat transaction margin dollars (not %
margins) into FY24 guidance, which was below expectations and calls for
roughly flat y/y adj. EPS or $5.10 (excluding SBC, which post 1Q24 will begin
to include)

If you bought SNAP at $9-10 like most people and rode it to $15 you should have taken some off the table but you're still up. Stock may be in the doghouse for a while now though.

Nice....I got one stock idea that will take time to bloom...Biogen, I noticed a lot of hedge funds started buying it when the new CEO came in. So, I picked some up yesterday. The Alzheimer drug is supposedly a real deal.

Man, ARM was not one of my semiconductor plays and they exploded 50% up. Anyone on that?

I've been sandbagging NET (cloudflare) forever....nice pay day today! was up ~22% after hours.

Only by virtue of QTEC (Nasdaq equal weight ETF). It’s up 27% for the past 3 months, wish I’d bought more.

EDIT: looks like ARM is not of the NASDAQ 100, so never mind. I wish I’d had some of that action today.

I'll caveat this by saying you should probably do the opposite of anything I say but...

I put a bunch into C3.ai a few years ago, don't bother. Been nothing but disappointment. Lots of people holding the bag on this one. They are doing something wrong and have mostly moved sideways. You'd be better off with Palantir or just throwing more at NVDA, MSFT, GOOG etc.

It will be on a case by case basis depending on each bank's liquidity and how deep they are in commercial real estate loans in my opinion. Also how many large customers have long term loans that are coming due that need to refinance at higher rates.

And this may be an issue so be cautious: Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240124a.htm

S&P 500 touched 5,000 yesterday and may close at above the level for the first time today.

I'm holding most of my funds in SPY (a S&P 500 ETF) but am going to slowly accrue TBIL (3 month treasury bond ETF) for a while while its paying above 5%. If the market goes down I'll bail on the TBIL and buy more SPY at some point (probably if SPY drops below the 200 day moving average).

I wonder in general how much of the rise in the markets truly reflects the generation of wealth and how much of it is just a reflection of inflation.

Bought the wrong one this day dis hit 110 yesterday

That is sort of what I have been doing with each T-bill that matures I either have rolled it back for 3 months or kept some cash for some investing and some trading in small amounts. I am waiting for the market to drop a week from Monday hopefully. Would love to see in SPY 3-7% drop to get some more.

I got into AI when it bottomed out and sold it off about a month ago. Made a nice little profit. Just closed out my position on Palantir. Got in around 8s and over the course of the last month I have been taking some profits. Last year I bought a decent amount of NVIDIA in the mid 200s. Going to hodl on those. That and QQQ are soaring for me.

I did something similar with AI, bought it last January at $19.81 and sold it in May at $30.26. I swear it's run then was just because it had AI in it's name and everyone was trying to invest in the next big thing in AI stock.

Motley Fool sure thinks it's a long term hold now:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/09/2-explosive-ai-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-10-years

Depends on who you talk to. They've had a nice run up today, but most everyone says it's DOA.

I did a little rebalancing today. Found myself buying some risky stocks I already own (thanks to Motley Fool) that have been huge losers. I'm not a huge fan of dollar cost averaging unless its for companies that really are market leaders. Yet, so many analysts (not with Motley Fool) still recommend them as buys. Sometimes you just have to keep buying...

Just want to say here again: Don't listen to Motley Fool! Their "analysts" have no idea WTF they are doing.

I’m an ETF investor, but the largest holdings in my ETFs are what I’d call “runaway tech stocks” like SMCI and NVDA. I remember putting $30k into QQQ just before the crash in 2000, so I’m a little nervous about where we go next.

It’s fun to play “where are they now?” with the 1999 market leaders. CSCO’s market cap was $353B, today it’s $204B. GE went from $504B to $151B. Intel dropped from $271B to $183B. What am I missing?

IMG_1444 (resized).jpeg

Didn't some companies (like GE) have spinoffs and divestments? Is that taken into account?

I would think so. Spin-offs should have value to current shareholders. Cash from divestments would be rolled into stock buybacks or new acquisitions.

There is an Andy Warhol Effect = "Everyone will be famous in the future for fifteen minutes". Leaders rotate in and out of popularity as business, technology, profits and tastes change. Remember US Steel and Penn Central Railroad use to be the place to be!
Until they weren't .

In the case of GE, bad management, bad financial accounting, bad purchase of Alstom, bad investment in financial instruments/loans business, owning NBC etc and when they stripped down it was too late and just in time for COVID.

How much longer will stuff like this last... and when the faucet gets turned off what will be the effects?

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Wow, people love taking it up the A. My friend bought a used Honda SUV and he pays like $650 per month while working at McDonald’s. He’s overpaying by like $8k and I tried telling him but he just said it is what it is. Guess that’s why he works at McDonald’s

That can't be real.

That's gotta be fake, no car loan is 3K a month. But I will say buying new cars on big loans is definitely holding Americans back financially. I remember in my early 20s reading about how most millionaires didn't waste their money on expensive cars and would drive the same car for 20 years, saving on expensive car loans, expensive tabs, and expensive insurance. I took that to heart and always instead buy used cars with very low mileage instead. I bought a 2005 Honda Pilot a few years ago with 17,000 miles on it for cash, it had been at some old people's vacation home. I'm just up to 75,000 miles now. I haven't had to put much money into it, have cheap tabs, and cheap insurance. I've saved tons of money which has gone into the market instead.

To get to a 3k payment…you’d have to assume a 100k loan at 96 months with a rate of 33% so no, not real but still funny. Haha

Fun fact
"Having added nearly Tesla Inc.'s entire market capitalization in the past two months alone, Nvidia is worth $1.72 trillion, just shy of Amazon at $1.76 trillion, as of Thursday's close. Google-owner Alphabet, the third most valuable US company after Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc., isn't too far away at $1.82 trillion."

Smell's like Tulip bulbs to me...

Exactly right...same co, same product, but grew the entire Tesla cap in 2 months. We don't have to be hedge fund guys to call bs.

To be fair, Tesla helped out quite a bit.
Image 2-12-24 at 1.05 PM (resized).jpeg

Speaking of Tulip bulbs. I jumped onto BMR for 10 shares to see if it will pop up a bit more before or on earnings coming up.
Ahh the smell and color of FOMO

I agree with the sentiment though. Feels frothy and speculative out there. Look at ARM jumping almost 100% over the course of 4 days.

This is a good takeaway.

Time to take some off the table?

You are not wrong but I still think we will get only a 7-10% drop and by year end be back over 5000 in S&P. Still think we may go higher till mid 2025. Maybe not to 6000, depends on how many rate cuts get pushed in. Once one or two are in though and after October 2024, it's off to the races

For now, putting on my Nostradamus pants, next week I think things will start to drop. This week stuff will hover unless the Fed screams "Rate cut in March" Okay, I am taking off my Nostradamus pants because they itch and my regular pants are back on.

I have been reviewing job boards on Glassdoor and other sites. A lot of people out of work and when they apply at the bounty of places offering work, they are not getting calls or are interviewed and not hired. Wonder if in a lot of cases they are just asking for too much money or the jobs are posted but there is no money to hire them allocated in the company (which happens a lot). Feels a lot like 2002 job market....

2000 is different in a lot of ways though. The tech companies everyone is mentioning, aside from c3ai, all have great earnings that are growing. Heck GOOG is only trading at 23 times forward. AMZN is prob cheaper on a PE ratio than it has been in a long time. Apple is still a cash machine that is returning cash through buybacks and dividends and they finally had a quarter of positive growth - and supposedly some AI news soon. MSFT is trading at a pretty rich 36x forward but they are starting to monetize their AI investments and may well grow into that multiple faster than people think. Meta seems to have righted the ship.

NVDA has grown earnings, but there is a shit ton of optimism priced into it and I don’t see how they can meet it at their next earnings report. I would consider buying some on really big pullback. TSLA is a train wreck for several reasons.

I have long term positions in APPL MSFT GOOG and AMZN. Even though I am positive on all 4, I’m not a buyer of any of them at current market dynamics and their valuations, but I’m not a seller either. I would probably add to some of them on a pullback.

This was posted about an hour ago

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1757208781505593586?t=SPWKP_735pbnhWg4S1s1Ew&s=19

Either it's going to be a big pullback soon or a deferred pullback later...either way it's in the cards, this is nearing lunacy levels. But that's how they operate, it's either feast or famine. They over-buy and then over-sell.

isn't the mantra when everyone starts preaching doom and gloom do the opposite?

I was doing some more rebalancing/gain/loss harvesting today and decided to sell NVDA - at least until the next two Q earnings reports come out. It was nice to get some gains, but that market cap is priced for perfection.

Great company. Just hoping its market cap resets a bit in the coming months.