(Topic ID: 190972)
Not sure when this thread became about self driving cars, but since we were running with it:
The idea of a self driving car scares the shit out of me. My sat nav still gets it wrong all the time. It still sends me down dead end streets, and once even sent me down a eerie state forest road at dusk, nowhere near my destination. It freaked me out, not knowing where I was. Sat navs have been around for years and still get it wrong. I fear self driving cars will also get it wrong.
Quoted from cottonm4:That's interesting. How will some of these small "All-American" towns that live on speed trap money make the transition?
Will these self driving cars be able to read posted speed limit signs and brake or accelerate accordingly? I'm asking because I just got hammered with a speed trap ticket in a small north Oklahoma town.
After I got ticketed, I went into town and did my business. I went back out on the highway to see how I got caught (and I passed the radar cop in the same spot still gunning for speeders). It was a rural highway with a speed limit of 55mph. Out in the middle of wide open spaces were two signs with speed limit 45 followed about 300 feet later with a limit sign of 35mph. I was ticketed for doing 53 in a 35. And as I was SLOWLY returning back into town from seeing where and how I got nabbed, another vehicle doing highway speed of 55 climbed onto my tailgate. As I passed cop, he already had his lights on, and he nailed my follower.
The story is a little bit longer, but yes, it was a speed trap.
So, how will self driving cars behave with unexpected speed limit signs in the middle of nowhere? Are these cars going to be able to read and act on random speed limit signs or they just going to be acting on banks of data that have been programmed into their brains? So who, or what, will win the battle between self- driving cars and speed trap towns (you know they exist)?
Haven't you ever used a GPS? They tell you your current speed and the posted speed.
Quoted from PinSinner:The idea of a self driving car scares the shit out of me.
Well, they'll probably get rid of the steering column before that and soon you will be steering by wire.
The mishaps that are sure to follow should get you all primed up for when the driver itself is eliminated.
Sana'a
Quoted from cottonm4:Are these cars going to be able to read and act on random speed limit signs or they just going to be acting on banks of data that have been programmed into their brains?
Remember when the AAA Tripticks had the red lines **area of strict or unfair traffic speed enforcement** ?
Quoted from SadSack:25year membership in SAE and I have not once been amazed a single time by technological change. I am amazed by tech neophytes' faith in the 21st century religion know as technophillia.
I'm not alone: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/autonomous-cars-biggest-roadblock-are-drivers-afraid-to-let-go
From the article you linked to: "Consumers will only become comfortable with driverless cars after they ride in them, Mary Barra, the chief executive officer of General Motors Co., said this week." Well, duh. 
I agree that people are a lot less tolerant of fatal accidents when they aren't the ones in control at the time of the accident. For example, everybody expects trains and airplanes to be almost perfectly safe, and any serious accident is considered newsworthy because when travelling in these modes of transport we are forced to give up control, even though both of these are many many times safer ways to travel than driving in your own car. Most people feel more comfortable driving themselves, "it won't happen to them" syndrome kicks in, yet 40K people die in the US every year in car accidents.
I do think that if they work anything close to as well as we're being led to believe they will, people will quickly adopt them given all the positives that they provide. Perhaps it won't be long and people will look at you funny if you do drive yourself, and won't feel safe travelling with you if the car isn't on auto-drive mode. 
Anyway, I too await to be "amazed". 
Just like any other computer tech, it can be hacked. The actual driver less system may be solid, but it will also be linked to satellites and what not. Just wait until those hooligans with nothing better to do start hacking in on them, and then lets see what happens.
Kitchener, ON
Quoted from SadSack:I'd trust my own instantaneous judgment over any AI... especially with traction control and stability control.
Hahahaha. Do you understand that traction control and stability control IS A.I. Whenever the traction control kicks in; it is your car saving you from doing something wrong. It's not a very intelligent system, but it can already control the car in an emergency situation better then you can....and you trust it to work properly.
I'm just sayin.
Manual gas driven
Quoted from SadSack:cars will be banned from traditional roadways by 2025.
Quoted from Taxman:Haven't you ever used a GPS? They tell you your current speed and the posted speed.
I think you missed the point of the message - the poster said that the cop had placed "temporary" 35MPH signs on the approach to the small town - your GPS will simply not have any way of knowing this unless it is able to read the NEW temporary signs??
Allyn, WA
Quoted from Homepin:the poster said that the cop had placed "temporary" 35MPH signs on the approach to the small town - your GPS will simply not have any way of knowing this unless it is able to read the NEW temporary signs??
apps like waze tell you when it sees cops, detours, heavy traffic, etc by users inputting. I would imagine if Tesla could auto connect to meta data like that, it could update itself on the current speed limit (so long as someone is populating it).
Quoted from Pinballs:Regarding cost, I thought that manufacture of 'white goods' (heavy stuff like fridges) was being reshored back from China because of the high cost of shipping such heavy items now, and the long leadtime for shipping. I'd have thought pinball fits in that category. So maybe not THAT much cheaper to make in China?
Seems you didn't read my post #168 that states the RRP (in Australia). It won't be a great deal different for other destinations with the only differences being freight and tax adjustments for different countries. Homepin cannot (by law in most countries) fix the retail price but we can encourage our dealers to do the right thing.
Quoted from vid1900:Remember when the AAA Tripticks had the red lines **area of strict or unfair traffic speed enforcement** ?
Yeah Vid, I do remember those AAA trip ticks. And I have an AAA membership. But this time I was going 80 miles from home and did not need AAA services. However, when I returned home I visited my local AAA office to ask about how AAA highlighted for speed traps. All I got from the AAA office wonks were blank stares---and one whippersnapper actually had the cajones to tell me I should slow down. Pissed me off !!
Quoted from Luckydogg420:Hahahaha. Do you understand that traction control and stability control IS A.I. Whenever the traction control kicks in; it is your car saving you from doing something wrong. It's not a very intelligent system, but it can already control the car in an emergency situation better then you can....and you trust it to work properly.
I'm just sayin.
And it's up to the driver to ignore those lights that come on the dash when there is a system failure. I wonder what kind of warning you'll get when there is a driverless system failure. Especially on one with high mileage.
It looks good on paper, but people do not maintain their vehicles like they should and drive them for 100s of 1000s of miles until the wheels literally fall off
Quoted from o-din:And it's up to the driver to ignore those lights that come on the dash when there is a system failure. I wonder what kind of warning you'll get when there is a driverless system failure. Especially on one with high mileage.
When the trans was failing on my car, I needed to go 10 more miles to get home on a Saturday night.
The screen said "Transmission failure, seek service immediately, do not operate vehicle"
I hit OK to continue anyway and the car said "Limiting in Place" (or something like that) and it let me crawl home at 20mph max.
-
So I'm sure the self-driving cars will lock operation if there is some catastrophic failure, just like my current car would not let me destroy my transmission.
They've got tire sensors now too that would probably detect a blowout, however most cars that come in have that light on the dash even though the tires are full of air. The system fails more often than it detects a failure.
Quoted from o-din:They've got tire sensors now too that would probably detect a blowout, however most cars that come in have that light on the dash even though the tires are full of air. The system fails more often than it detects a failure.
I have a low tire light on for over a year now. You could go broke replacing sensors.
I'd rather deal with false positives than false negatives.
If my wife had been in a self-driving car on February 25 2010, or the semi had been self driving for that matter, I wouldn't be a widower. Of course that wasn't an option then or even now, really, but that's beside the point.
Stupid human errors cause way more wrecks than hypothetical sensor miscues ever would.
Quoted from Taxman:I have a low tire light on for over a year now. You could go broke replacing sensors.
Aprox 50% of the cars that come in my shop, new and old have that light on. Like I said they fail more than they detect failure and now they think it's OK to go with the driverless idea. What a joke.
If they can't make the safety features that are already on a car bulletproof, then maybe they are not ready.
Quoted from o-din:It looks good on paper, but people do not maintain their vehicles like they should and drive them for 100s of 1000s of miles until the wheels literally fall off
This won't be a problem with fully autonomous vehicles. You'll buy a car with a full warranty package and the car will drive it's self to the garage while you're at work. Scheduled maintenance will happen automatically at your convenience
Quoted from Luckydogg420:This won't be a problem with fully autonomous vehicles. You'll buy a car with a full warranty package and the car will drive it's self to the garage while you're at work. Scheduled maintenance will happen automatically at your convenience
Sadly, dreams like this are still very much science fiction......maybe sometime in the future but I doubt I will see it in my lifetime.
Quoted from Luckydogg420:You'll buy a car with a full warranty package and the car will drive it's self to the garage while you're at work. Scheduled maintenance will happen automatically at your convenience
It'll still end up being serviced by an underpaid, under experienced, and under educated mechanic that's not getting paid to check your tires, air filter, or brakes. Just like most dealerships have working there now.
To add to that, the greedy auto industry has made it less and less appealing for those with the ability to properly diagnose and repair automobiles to stay in or get into the business. So the workforce becomes more comprised of ex cons, the not too bright, and some with serious mental issues.
Those are who will be making sure these driver less cars are safe while daydreaming about places they would rather be, and things they would rather do.
Quoted from o-din:the greedy auto industry has made it less and less appealing for those with the ability to properly diagnose and repair automobiles
For gas cars, yes. So many sensors (which false diagnose), so many moving parts that can fail. It's my understanding that Tesla is effectively a brushless motor, controlled by a speed controller (like a hobby R/C car might have, just a ton more amps), paired up to a gearbox (single gear, no transmission because electric motors have huge amounts of torque), and there's a giant bank of batteries underneath. Yes there's a ton of other things like the cameras to sense the environment, other typical wear items like brakes and tires, but from a maintenance standpoint it's night and day. When the batteries go bad, typically they replace the entire bank, I'd imagine if the motor develops issues it would be the same thing (and get rebuilt in a factory much like alternators do now).
I work in an industry that is dominated by single stroke small gas engines, but we are slowly transitioning into electric. By comparison, electric is super simple.
Anyone know how these cars will act in a snow storm? From the road being icy to snow and ice build up on a camera? Can the camera even recognize the road when everything is white and looks the same.
Quoted from toyotaboy:By comparison, electric is super simple.
Maybe, but the car itself still has a rolling chassis with parts that can wear out. Things you can sometimes feel while holding the steering wheel and driving. Without any more driver input, it will be up to the car to decide when a tie rod end, ball joint, or other suspension part is ready to fail.
At least if a wheel falls off while I'm driving (which one has) I can make a split decision what to do and hang onto that wheel for dear life. Not sure what kind of programming they can give a driver less vehicle for those kinds of situations or situations where the car detects a failure that didn't really happen. That's my biggest concern. Just like when an air bag deploys before the accident.
Quoted from toyotaboy:For gas cars, yes. So many sensors (which false diagnose), so many moving parts that can fail. It's my understanding that Tesla is effectively a brushless motor, controlled by a speed controller (like a hobby R/C car might have, just a ton more amps), paired up to a gearbox (single gear, no transmission because electric motors have huge amounts of torque), and there's a giant bank of batteries underneath.
I heard that the Tesla model S has 18 moving parts, although it's probably a pretty loose definition of "moving parts" (is a steering rack one part? Suspension? Window motor?) but there's no doubt the entire car has less moving parts then an internal combustion engine. Also the regeneration from breaking would reduce wear and tear on the break pads. I believe that it's done with magnetic induction and could virtually stop the car without a lot of mechanical force
Autonomous cars are the future. It's not a question of if it will happen but when.
There are a lot of advantages. A family could interact with kids and not have them distracting or stressing out the driver. You could get hammered and be driven home by your robot. Your car could go out and be an Uber while you're at work.
Disadvantage of course is every job involving driving will be lost. Semi drivers would only be able to find work in super dangerous stuff like Ice Road Truckers. There would be entire areas where human driven cars would be outright banned.
Quoted from benheck:Your car could go out and be an Uber while you're at work.
"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network"
Quoted from Homepin:A close Australian friend of mine is in the process of moving his factory to The Philippines after operating in China for over 10 years. He is fed up with the Government interference, increasing red tape and overall rising difficulties running a factory in China. His factory is small, employing 130 people.
I guess that means the people who financially backed his 3D printer and cell phone startup crowdfunding campaigns to the tune of $650,000+US and never received the product they paid for are shit out of luck.
We have been talking jobs lost to China, jobs that would not be if not for China, and how self-driving cars are going to put loads of people out of work. It has me breaking my brain trying to think about what jobs have been made obsolete by technology and what jobs have been made by technology.
I'll start with the classic business school example. When the automobile industry took off, buggy whip makers were put out the door. Anybody who had any kind of business dealing with horses, such as livery stables, and I suppose anybody whose job it was to shovel horse shit from the streets, were out of business or looking for new work.
In return, we got jobs for mechanics, gas station attendants, battery factories/jobs, tire factories/jobs, paint factories, metal plating(chrome) industry, glass factories, road construction and concrete jobs, tractors, bulldozers----you name it.
Not a bad tradeoff for getting rid of mountains of horse hockey.
I guess you could say that the telephone put the Western Union Morse Code telegram guy out of a job. But we got telephone operators as a replacement. Of course, technological advance put the operators ( younger person: "What is a telephone operator?") out of work and paved the way for direct dialing, cheap(er) long distance calling, and then the cell phone we now have.
Computers and tabulating machines came along and put innumerable office jerks out of a job, but look what happened with all the jobs created by the computer industry.
I'm at a loss more more examples, but there are many more. I don't know what happened to the buggy whip makers; Maybe they went to work building Model "T"s. Maybe they died off. But life marched on then as it continue to do will today. If there is a cheaper way to do something and that something can find a market, then it will happen.
The biggest difference between then and now, is all the jobs that could be done with an 8th grade education are going away. As already mentioned, jobs to be lost with self driving cars: cab drivers, bus drivers, school bus drivers, chauffeurs, etc.
Eventually, at the big box stores, checkers will disappear as self-checkout tech continues to improve. ( Walmart started out with one or two self-checkout stands. Now, the self-checkout corral has 10, 11, or 12 self-checkout stations and the other day I had to stand in line to check myself out !! People are getting used to it.
Sorry, I ramble. Sometimes
We get all worked up about how robots are going to take jobs. They are taking up the crappy, unsafe jobs. But forget the robots. What about all of the industrial machinery that no one ever talks about? As far as utility provided, I'm not sure robots are much different than all of the industrial machinery that has been around for years.
How many have watched that TV show called "How its made"? You can watch it now on Youtube. You know, you have a machine that can take a roll of heavy gauge wire, unroll it, snip of a piece to length, roll it and bend it to where it becomes a link for a chain, and then the process is repeated and with just a few minutes this machine has kicked out a 50 foot length of log chain; A second machine welds all the links together and pushes the finished chain into a plating bucket; This process repeats until several chains are in the plating bucket and then some factory wonk runs the hoist to move the bucket full of chains to the plating bath.
Can you imagine what you would have to pay for a log chain that was made "by hand"? Looked at in another way how many 50 foot log chains can one man make in an hour compared to the machine?
And it is not just log chains that can be made with minimum human input. How about the cookie making machine where the only human input is for someone to cut open the bags of flour while the machine does all the rest, including the packaging, boxing and loading onto a pallet for a robot forklift.
All of these industrial machines produce product much faster (and cheaper) than any team of humans can. This is the way can afford out lifestyles of today.
So, Mr. Cookie Maker, Mr. Chain Maker, your job did not leave the country in search of cheaper labor. Your job moved down the street into that empty warehouse where a machine put you out of work. I'm real sorry you are out of a job: I want to know this, but now hundreds of more people will be able to enjoy the use the product because we can now make it cheaper. On a pure cost-benefit analysis, you did not come out on top. I am so sorry.
*******************
**A bridge replaced the ferry at the river and put the family that had an iron grip on how you got to the other side out of business.
** "If God had met for man to fly he would have put wings on man." Yeah, right. The airline industry is here to stay.
** Traffic lights put city traffic cops out of business.
** Computers replaced the elevator operator.
** The automobile gave rise to the gas pump jockey. The self-service gas station got rid of the jockey.
** Used to be some old fart could make a living fixing flat tires for a dollar. Nowadays, tires rarely go flat. So, sorry, old fart, I like flat-free tires.
Did I say earlier that I ramble? My girl friend thinks I ramble I have been with her long enough that she is always right
I leave you now and I do hope you and your job make the technology/cheaper labor hump.
SIDEBAR: I can speak with impunity about this because I am retired now, but my job did leave me and moved to Mexico. So if you do not survive the cheap labor juggernaut, I will sympathize for you and feel your pain. Now, excuse me, please. I need to get my Harbor Freight purchases out to my car.
Where is my flying car that was promised by 1980? No regular cars by 2025? No way.
I think the self driving car may have a place but most likely on only certain areas/roads like interstates similar to cruise control. Long trip? Kick back and let us drive. There will just be to many things that "smart" cars will not know how to deal with as already mentioned.
Quoted from Luckydogg420:Hahahaha. Do you understand that traction control and stability control IS A.I. Whenever the traction control kicks in; it is your car saving you from doing something wrong.
I think we have a different definition of AI. Following a control algorithm based on 4-6 inputs may seem complicated, but it hardly fits any commonly held definition of the words. AI is when the program is driven to make conclusions outside its pre-planned constraints. This is where it all breaks down. I've not seen a successful AI implementation in any industry by this standard.
Quoted from pinsanity:I guess that means the people who financially backed his 3D printer and cell phone startup crowdfunding campaigns to the tune of $650,000+US and never received the product they paid for are shit out of luck.
You are WAY off base. I haven't seen nor heard from that guy for a couple of years. The friend I'm talking about here has made garage door openers in China for 10 years.
Quoted from Homepin:You are WAY off base. I haven't seen nor heard from that guy for a couple of years. The friend I'm talking about here has made garage door openers in China for 10 years.
Good to read and it is reassuring to now reasonably conclude from the inference in your post that the individual in question has zero input into the manufacture of Thunderbirds and particularly the financial aspects thereof.
Quoted from cottonm4:That's interesting. How will some of these small "All-American" towns that live on speed trap money make the transition?
Good point. I recall on NPR hearing about those little towns and in one case someone like yourself knew the trap was there and was way under the limit. This person was still pulled over and given some BS equipment violation of some kind. They will make something up to get your money.
I know a guy who got pulled over in Ohio and the ticket said he was targeted by plane. The planes use markers on the road to estimate your speed, then radio to the wolves laying in wait for your vehicle description. What a waste of resources.
Quoted from toyotaboy:For gas cars, yes. So many sensors (which false diagnose), so many moving parts that can fail. It's my understanding that Tesla is effectively a brushless motor, controlled by a speed controller (like a hobby R/C car might have, just a ton more amps), paired up to a gearbox (single gear, no transmission because electric motors have huge amounts of torque), and there's a giant bank of batteries underneath. Yes there's a ton of other things like the cameras to sense the environment, other typical wear items like brakes and tires, but from a maintenance standpoint it's night and day. When the batteries go bad, typically they replace the entire bank, I'd imagine if the motor develops issues it would be the same thing (and get rebuilt in a factory much like alternators do now).
I work in an industry that is dominated by single stroke small gas engines, but we are slowly transitioning into electric. By comparison, electric is super simple.
Still has suspension... Still has joints... Still has everything in an interior.. still has wiring (and more of it)... still has HVAC.. still has a ton more sensors, measurements, etc. Sensors and controllers are subject to harsh environments and hence high risk for damage/failure.
Minus the powertrain.. it's much of the same. The key is engines required regular upkeep and had more consumable parts. You're taking that big piece out, but it's still a car everywhere else... plus way more gadgets.
Quoted from vid1900:Single cylinder?
Quoted from Trekie:2 stroke?
clearly I was out to lunch when I wrote that
Quoted from flynnibus:Still has suspension... Still has joints... Still has everything in an interior.. still has wiring (and more of it)... still has HVAC.. still has a ton more sensors, measurements, etc. Sensors and controllers are subject to harsh environments and hence high risk for damage/failure.
Still there is less of stuff.
The Tesla Model X just got rated the safest SUV ever by the NHTSA.
That's amazing for a new model, from a new company, to outshine all the other car companies with decades (centuries?) more experience :
Here are a couple of interesting vids.
This is of an English Company, Stentor, that has moved its violin production to China. What there is a lot of young adults cranking out cheap violins by the dozens. They all look very busy and, for the most part, happy. I find myself wondering about these energetic competitors when they get old and gray and start slowing down. But, I don't see any thing that looks like slave labor here
Next is an English girl reviewing some of these cheaper Chinese made violins. She seem perfectly happy with the quality of these beginner Chinese violins.
And now we have some old gray hair in Germany "working to perfection" to get one violin a week out the door.
cottonm4 makes a very valid comparison.
The Chinese factory is making AFFORDABLE instruments that do the job perfectly well particularly for students on a tight budget. Note particularly that the instruments made in the Chinese factory are 100% 'hand made' also.
The "grey hair" is making hand made, one off, artistic pieces destined for the finest and most highly skilled players and I have no doubt they sell for amounts that a student could only dream of paying.
Different products for very different end users BUT both of them meeting a consumer need in their own way and both high quality, hand made instruments.
Just because an item is "made in China" does not automatically mean it is crap! This is something many people have yet to adjust to.
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