(Topic ID: 307958)

So I'm gonna say it...new people getting into the hobby...has some downsides!

By DakotaMike

1 year ago


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  • Latest reply 1 year ago by phil-lee
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    There are 233 posts in this topic. You are on page 5 of 5.
    #201 1 year ago

    I've heard less-rosy stories from other Stern people... I'd take Gomez's upbeat take with a big grain of salt. If it's true, there should be a lot of people here receiving games right about now.

    #202 1 year ago

    You can't even get parts now, I've been waiting since July for a Opto board.

    #203 1 year ago

    Dude
    You changed your title
    GLWTS

    #204 1 year ago

    As of this week there are still 102 cargo ships at port of Los Angeles backlogged, it's still not getting better.
    You can see them anchored like an invasion fleet off Long Beach.
    The supply situation is going to be with us for at least another year.

    #205 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Supposedly Stern is back to pre-covid production levels.

    No they aren’t. They are nowhere near 115 games a day. Their backlog is 100% due to supply chain issues. Probably staffing issues too. Hard to find people.

    #206 1 year ago
    Quoted from Captainhook:

    You can't even get parts now, I've been waiting since July for a Opto board.

    Your opto board is sitting on a ship next to a box of 10 thousand sub standard Coil Stops.

    #207 1 year ago
    Quoted from chuckwurt:

    No they aren’t. They are nowhere near 115 games a day. Their backlog is 100% due to supply chain issues. Probably staffing issues too. Hard to find people.

    Oh really? I'll take your word for it Erik, you're definitely more in the know than me. I do remember George saying the production thing in a recent interview. I'll track it down when I get a chance. But yeah, I never considered that George would mislead about Stern's numbers. But its certainly possible.

    #208 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Oh really? I'll take your word for it Erik, you're definitely more in the know than me. I do remember George saying the production thing in a recent interview. I'll track it down when I get a chance. But yeah, I never considered that George would mislead about Stern's numbers. But its certainly possible.

    I listened to that same podcast. The Stern Insider podcast where George talks about Insider Connected, I believe. I think he might have been telling the truth at the time of that podcast, but that was like summer of 2021. Jan of 2022 is a different beast.

    #209 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Supposedly Stern is back to pre-covid production levels. And has been so for some time. Gomez even said that they are making more games than they ever have before, in spite of the supply challenges and covid safety precautions that they have to take at the factory. Can't remember which interview he said that, but it was fairly recent.

    Maybe he did say it; it really does not matter. The facts speak for themselves. New games are NOT readily available at normal prices.

    It might be true they are making more LE games than ever before because 1000 was not the typical LE run. History shows that an LE will sell out instantly. If that generates the most profit, then of course, run with that.

    Until the average hobbyist, operator and collector can start finding Premium and pro versions of games at non-inflated prices it is *not* reasonable to say we are back to pre-Covid levels. Everything in the new production realm is getting jacked, because there are simply too few items available and too many people want things *now now now* and are willing to pay exorbitant prices to anyone who can give them new and shiny. Add to that the people running side-gigs to newcomers and the "gotta havers" where people are buying upfront sight unseen to turn around and sell them to the gotta have it crowd for an easy profit. It's insanity.

    I love pinball, but these are bananaville times for buying new games.

    (Reminds-me I should listen to Ministry: Just One Fix)

    #210 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Oh really? I'll take your word for it Erik, you're definitely more in the know than me. I do remember George saying the production thing in a recent interview. I'll track it down when I get a chance. But yeah, I never considered that George would mislead about Stern's numbers. But its certainly possible.

    Just think about it. Doesn’t it seem clear that people aren’t getting games as fast as they normally do? Pinball isn’t immune to all the things plaguing like every manufacturer in the US.

    If they were at full capacity and supply chains weren’t effed then distros wouldn’t be getting shorted on literally every order they try to make. Everyone is getting less than what they typically get.

    Demand doesn’t explode overnight. Our hobby didn’t quadruple in a year. It more than likely has been at a steady increase like it has been. Couple that with a steep decline in supply, and here we are.

    -2
    #211 1 year ago
    Quoted from chuckwurt:

    Just think about it. Doesn’t it seem clear that people aren’t getting games as fast as they normally do? Pinball isn’t immune to all the things plaguing like every manufacturer in the US.
    If they were at full capacity and supply chains weren’t effed then distros wouldn’t be getting shorted on literally every order they try to make. Everyone is getting less than what they typically get.

    All the more reason for Stern to STOP RELEASING NEW TITLES until they catch up a bit! But people have been saying that for over a year now. I'd love to know why Stern keeps releasing new games when they're so far behind on production of current ones.

    Most parts, mechs, and node boards are common across different games, and I have a hard believing that Stern couldn't justify to their license partners at least a 6 month delay. Given the shipping and supply situation the world is in right now.

    And their coders and designers can definitely still work even if their game are delayed. Games don't reach 1.0 code until long after release these days, and designers can keep banking new pfs, and refining the ones they've all ready finished.

    #212 1 year ago
    Quoted from KingVidiot:

    For someone named “crazy” Levi, you’re one of the most consistently sane people here

    You realize he's describing himself most of the time right?

    #213 1 year ago

    OH got it! So more people in the hobby is a bad thing........ More demand for pinball machines is ALSO a bad thing......
    Got it!!!!
    Actually NO I don't get it!!!!!

    Those 2 things are GREAT for the hobby. the more the merrier!
    The more demand for new games the more companies make new games and varied titles.... and please remind me! why is that bad???

    In my opinion, if one isn't happy with the situation one can always find another great hobby.

    #214 1 year ago
    Quoted from RobertS:

    OH got it! So more people in the hobby is a bad thing........ More demand for pinball machines is ALSO a bad thing......
    Got it!!!!
    Actually NO I don't get it!!!!!
    Those 2 things are GREAT for the hobby. the more the merrier!
    The more demand for new games the more companies make new games and varied titles.... and please remind me! why is that bad???
    In my opinion, if one isn't happy with the situation one can always find another great hobby.

    Read the opening post again. I fully explain my reasoning in great detail, if you still don't get it, then I don't know what to tell you.

    Long story short, I don't think ever increasing demand coupled with dwindling supply is good for anyone.

    But I fully agree that more demand, more pinball enthusiasts, and more and varied pinball production to match, would be the dream. But that last part isn't happening right now.

    #215 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    All the more reason for Stern to STOP RELEASING NEW TITLES until they catch up a bit!

    And lay off all the developers and designers? Not a chance. And no there isn’t enough work for them. They start new games at least a year before they come out.

    Things will catch up once supply chains are back to normal. It’s like this in every industry. Stern makes the games they can make. They aren’t making the games they can’t.

    Demand hasn’t increased as much as you think it has. Supply has taken a nose dive however.

    #216 1 year ago

    ask for the lock.we have all said our how you dos

    #217 1 year ago
    Quoted from nicoy3k:

    Has anyone actually quantified how popular pinball is and how much the home market has grown? I guarantee that it is still incredibly niche. I would also warn against assuming that sales for at home luxury good like pinballs or hot tubs will continue to stay high once the pandemic is beyond us. Whether that’s 1 year or 4 years from now. I’m not suggesting pinball will “crash” but rather correct its growth pattern to what it was closer to pre pandemic.

    I use to think this but it was so odd the Georgia Bulldog football teams has pinball machines brought into the stadiums they play in for their down time and something to do. Why the heck are a bunch of thug football players into pinball.

    #218 1 year ago

    Guess he really hit a nerve with you too for posting PMs in a thread jake35. Respond and move on. Why post it here?

    #219 1 year ago
    Quoted from EJS:

    When there gets to be too much negativity I close out my browsers and go play pinball by myself or pick and choose to invite the people I like to come play.

    Hmmm JP? and hmmmm..........

    See you tomorrow

    #220 1 year ago
    Quoted from chuckwurt:

    And lay off all the developers and designers? Not a chance. And no there isn’t enough work for them. They start new games at least a year before they come out.
    Things will catch up once supply chains are back to normal. It’s like this in every industry. Stern makes the games they can make. They aren’t making the games they can’t.
    Demand hasn’t increased as much as you think it has. Supply has taken a nose dive however.

    Okay, but it takes months or sometimes years for code to get finished. So for sure the coders could keep working during an extended delay. I mean GZ is still only .85 and it came out in Sep. Granted it's a great .85, but still. So obviously, the coders could use the time. I acknowledge that keeping pf designers busy wouldn't be quite so simple. But they could easily keep knocking out whitewoods if they really had to.

    Plus, look at JJP. Eric and Pat go like 3 years between games. They must be doing something everyday. And you're telling me that John, Keith, Jack, and Brian can't busy themselves for 6 months? No way, I don't buy it.

    #221 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Okay, but it takes months or sometimes years for code to get finished. So for sure the coders could keep working during an extended delay. I mean GZ is still only .85 and it came out in Sep. Granted it's a great .85, but still. So obviously, the coders could use the time. I acknowledge that keeping pf designers busy wouldn't be quite so simple. But they could easily keep knocking out whitewoods if they really had to.
    Plus, look at JJP. Eric and Pat go like 3 years between games. They must be doing something everyday. And you're telling me that John, Keith, Jack, and Brian can't busy themselves for 6 months? No way, I don't buy it.

    Well, you figured it all out. Please go tell George to GTFO, you're gonna take over the factory with your scary awesome ideas. It's too bad they haven't figured out the whole "manufacturing a niche product that shouldn't even exist anymore" thing! Good thing you're here to save them!

    #222 1 year ago
    Quoted from Rarehero:

    Well, you figured it all out. Please go tell George to GTFO, you're gonna take over the factory with your scary awesome ideas. It's too bad they haven't figured out the whole "manufacturing a niche product that shouldn't even exist anymore" thing! Good thing you're here to save them!

    Thanks rarehero, but you really give me too much credit. I'm not telling Stern how to run their manufacturing operation at all, I'm just questioning why they don't pause new title releases for a little while. And I don't think it's because they'd be forced to furlough all their developers, because that makes no sense to me.

    Do you have a take?

    #223 1 year ago
    Quoted from Jarbyjibbo:

    They don't need to "absorb" anything. They're selling every game they build and charging more than ever for them. They're doing just fine running their business exactly the way they deem fit. And all this new money has allowed them to finally put some money back into the pins after some lean years with additional talented staff being hired, getting good IP to work with, and trying to give more bang for the increased buck to the customer.
    Do I enjoy the increase in pricing and reduction in supply? Of course not. It just means instead of buying every 3rd title or so (on average), I buy the ones that really click with me and I just enjoy them more instead if always focusing on "what's next"
    Every hobby (like life) is always adapting and evolving. Enjoy it for what it is and don't dislike it for what it isn't and you'll find the ride much more fun.

    When I said that the manufacturers are having a hard time absorbing the increased demand, I meant that they are having a hard time making enough pins to keep up with the demand. No distro is getting as many games as they want, and Stern is 1000's of pins backordered. Many think this is mainly a supply/labor issue, and not so much an increased demand issue, and they may be right. But either way, the manufacturers can't keep up. That's what I mean when I say they can't "absorb" the high demand.

    #224 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Thanks rarehero, but you really give me too much credit. I'm not telling Stern how to run their manufacturing operation at all, I'm just questioning why they don't pause new title releases for a little while. And I don't think it's because they'd be forced to furlough all their developers, because that makes no sense to me.
    Do you have a take?

    If it made sense to do so, they would have done it. It doesn't make sense, so they haven't.

    They have a development schedule, a marketing schedule, and a manufacturing schedule. Doing your thing causes all 3 things to get behind. Doing it Stern's way puts 1 of those things behind.

    It doesn't make sense to blow their contracts, blow marketing/hype momentum, and stop their creative team from moving ahead on new projects. Yes, they're behind on old orders...but clearly they've run the numbers and even though a few people might cancel, it's a small amount compared to the next 1000 LEs they can sell.

    #225 1 year ago
    Quoted from Rarehero:

    If it made sense to do so, they would have done it. It doesn't make sense, so they haven't.
    They have a development schedule, a marketing schedule, and a manufacturing schedule. Doing your thing causes all 1 things to get behind. Doing it Stern's way puts 1 of those things behind.
    It doesn't make sense to blow their contracts, blow marketing/hype momentum, and stop their creative team from moving ahead on new projects. Yes, they're behind on old orders...but clearly they've run the numbers and even though a few people might cancel, it's a small amount compared to the next 1000 LEs they can sell.

    Rarehero you might know this, does the clock start ticking on their licenses once the contracts are signed? Or is it when games are first shipped? I’ve always wondered if this is a reason there’s so much overlap with their releases.

    #226 1 year ago

    Pinball is fun!

    I just valued my Elvira hoh at $7500 with mods to get a Godzilla LE. I had to add 3k to the deal and I landed a near new(230 plays) GZ LE for msrp price. I could have sold ehoh for more and then waited to find a gz premium or le but I am fine with being here for the hobby. So I left money on the table. I'm not rich and I could care less.

    New people coming? awesome. Pinball is growing. Supply issues are on everything worldwide. Hopefully things will simmer down soon.

    Enjoy the hobby and fuck the negativity! That is all

    And the flippers fuck it up the most in my opinion. one dude already has 3 archived Rush LEs that "i decided to keep" at 14k. Sureeee

    #227 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    Okay, but it takes months or sometimes years for code to get finished. So for sure the coders could keep working during an extended delay. I mean GZ is still only .85 and it came out in Sep. Granted it's a great .85, but still. So obviously, the coders could use the time. I acknowledge that keeping pf designers busy wouldn't be quite so simple. But they could easily keep knocking out whitewoods if they really had to.
    Plus, look at JJP. Eric and Pat go like 3 years between games. They must be doing something everyday. And you're telling me that John, Keith, Jack, and Brian can't busy themselves for 6 months? No way, I don't buy it.

    I know it seems simple to you, but you’re looking at this all wrong. It is simple, it just not for the reason you want it to be.

    Supply chains are effed. Stern isn’t changing unless they are forced to. Full steam ahead. Rerun games when they can, release new games on schedule. Raise prices while the demand allows for it.

    Stopping any of this to appease cranky collectors? Why?

    #228 1 year ago
    Quoted from DakotaMike:

    This might not be a popular opinion to state out loud, but I wish new people would stop getting into the pinball hobby. New blood is great for pinball locations, great for tournaments and leagues, and great for pinball shows, but it's awful for us home collectors.
    More people buying for their home just means more demand that the manufacturers can't keep up with. Stern and JJP's manufacturing capability isn't growing with the rate of new home buyers, so all these new collectors are just more competition for the limited number of Premiums, LEs, and Pros that are made. Not good for me or for you, since if you don't get in on that first run, you might be waiting months or years.
    New people in the hobby is also bad for the 2nd-hand market. There are a finite number of older pins, but a growing number of people interested in buying them. So more people in the hobby just means it's that much harder to find those classic Bally/Williams pins for sale, and that much harder to find them at good prices.
    So yeah, it's kinda awful to say it, but I don't actually want the pinball hobby to keep growing right now. I'd be happy for the location and tournament scene to grow, but once people get into playing on location or in tourneys, they almost invariably want to start owning pins at home.
    What do you guys think? I can't really see any benefit for us home collectors in the continued growth of the pinball hobby. All I see is more buying competition and higher prices. Sorry to sound like a grumpy gatekeeper, but I think it's hard to argue I'm wrong here.
    EDIT for Clarity:
    Wow, I forgot how much Pinside is like Twitter these days. Some of you are getting very personal, and some you are doing a lot of projecting! So let me clarify a few things, so that no one can misunderstand.
    1) I'm happy that the hobby is growing, and I hope it continues to grow. I have no desire to "return to the good ole days of the 90s" nor for things to return to the pricing and supply of the early 2000s.
    2) My main point is that from a supply and demand perspective, the rapid growth we've had in the last 18 months isn't really very healthy. The demand for new and old pins is way, way up, but the supply is not. So prices have gone through the roof, and I don't know how anyone can say that's a good thing. I don't know how anyone can look at the LE-flipping, the sharktank feeding-frenzy that takes place every time a new pin is released, and the massive prices some people are willing to pay for what amount to mediocre games, and say that it's a good thing.
    3) I'm not taking any of this very seriously at all, and I'm NOT mad! I'm actually generally a pretty happy and easy-going guy. I'm also not "locking my games away". We've got a decent little pinball co-op here in Sioux Falls, called The Pinball Room. We route games mainly so that the public can get a chance to play them, we help each other out, and we host leagues and tournaments. In the last year, I've put an AFMr, an Oktoberfest, a Beatles, a Paragon, a Twilight Zone, and a Stern Spiderman out on location for play. I try to mainly focus on slightly more obscure games that people don't often see on location, or just games that are really in demand and hard to find.
    4) I don't want to push anyone out or away from this hobby, and I want everyone to feel welcome. Whether you've been owning pins for 6 days, 6 weeks, or 6 months, I'm happy to meet you and I'm glad that you're here.
    5) I've all ready addressed the fact that I myself am pretty new to owning games, compared to many of you, but let me address it again. I have fixed dozens of pinball machines for people with no ability to do so themselves. Many more machines are now being played and enjoyed because of me. Also, I've dug up and found several totally dead pinball machines. These weren't projects listed for sale, but just broken games that had been sitting for years. I did the detective work, bought them, cleaned them up, got them working, and put them back out on the market. So from a net-supply perspective, I have ADDED games to the pinball supply pool. Not decreased it. And so if a new pinball buyer does the same, then they are a clear benefit to the hobby, and to the pinball supply.
    6) I fully recognize all the benefits that new blood brings to the hobby. I listed several of them in my OP. And I don't want the new blood to go away. I would just like the supply and demand to balance out a bit more. And that can't happen with the exponential growth we're seeing in new pinball buyers.

    Good thing I bought a Munsters since everyone on pinside hates it hahahahaha

    Oh... and just got my Godzilla today!

    #229 1 year ago
    Quoted from GoldenBeard:

    Good thing I bought a Munsters since everyone on pinside hates it hahahahaha
    Oh... and just got my Godzilla today!

    I like Munsters a lot. Just wish that there was a little more to do ruleswise. Godzilla is great, but a more challenging game.

    #230 1 year ago
    Screenshot_20220114-195642-851 (resized).png
    #231 1 year ago

    Glad I started collecting 25years ago...

    #232 1 year ago
    Quoted from Chisox:

    Rarehero you might know this, does the clock start ticking on their licenses once the contracts are signed? Or is it when games are first shipped? I’ve always wondered if this is a reason there’s so much overlap with their releases.

    I’m really not sure. My guess is the contract has a projected release date and it’s based on that. Dutch had to renegotiate the TBL license after they botched everything and went past the end of the contract without fulfilling all purchases. They still haven’t. Not sure how Universal let them keep the license…but that’s what contracts & lawyers are for.

    #233 1 year ago

    6301 Williams Honey produced. Think about that for a minute.
    Auto Manufacturers have adapted somewhat to the chip shortage. Eliminate the parts you can't source or make.
    Replace them with parts you can.
    Keep the lines moving is the main goal in Manufacturing.
    They can't do it.
    Pinball Manufacturing, including Stern, is boutique, specialized, limited.
    All of them together can't match Williams production numbers. They are scared to ramp up production, demand may fall off, they may lose millions.
    Smart in many ways, dumb as hell in others.

    There are 233 posts in this topic. You are on page 5 of 5.

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