How do you know?

10 years ago there was nobody who would pay those prices. Now there’s a ton. Maybe next year, there will be even more.

Pinball is still an incredibly niche hobby with tons of room to grow.

Why such a hostile response?

I'm just asking if you think the hobby is done and there aren't gonna be more noobs there to pick up the slack?

We've hit the peak?

Did you only start this thread so you could yell at people, or have a good old fashioned civilized Pinside price thread discussion?

It's kind of a new concept around here.

We have a lot of new pricing threads where people predict vague storm clouds and doom, yet won't flat out say "the bubble is going to burst!"

If you ask them to explain themselves they get angry. We got some mean drunks around here but that shouldn't come as news to anybody.

Does "demand destruction!" mean the same thing as the "bubble will burst?"

I guess we'll all have to pour another few drinks and wait and see!

Not butthurt, I have a smile on my face!

I've just heard it all before over the last 20 years and wondering why this is different.

According to you, it's because prices are too damn high.

Sounds good! I await the demand destruction just like everybody else. Tired of paying these crazy prices.

Pinball prices are nuts!! Am I right?!?!?

And to answer what I think was your question, I think the prices and quantity will remain the same for this round of releases. Quantity as well. Next Stern LE will be (at least advertised as) 1,000.

Yes.

During every market over the last 20 years, people have been saying the pinball bubble will burst.

No it’s venom with Ozzy music remember?

They made 1,000 Rush LEs. Why wouldn't they make 1,000 of these?

Of all the recent band themes, nobody has less widespread appeal than Rush. Foo FIghters are actually popular all over the world.

DEMAND DESTRUCTION!!!!!

Just would like to point out that just because they say they'll make 1,000 LEs doesn't mean they have to.

It wouldn't look good to backtrack. Whether or not they sell 1,000 LEs or 500 due to DEMAND DESTRUCTION I would guess it will be advertised at 1,000.

Just a prediction. No ass-tattoo or bourbon bets please.

Aerosmith was Dirty Donnie and he's sorely missed on Stern's rock pins.

Apparently they had some kind of falling out. Maybe due to Dirty's deciding to take the gig on that Cosmic Carnival disaster.

Im quite sure they think they can.

Stern is coming off X number of consecutive record sales years.

If there is DEMAND DESTRUCTION I doubt they've gotten the memo yet.

DEMAND DESTRUCTION

(at the same time has 2 dozen people are saying "in for an LE!!!!" after a 20 second teaser)

I know it's all conjecture and we've rehashed this argument a billion times (a billion +1 coming with the next Ice post) but I don't think the goose is yet cooked.

Pinball fans have tons of money
pinball fans like buying games
More home buying pinball fans than ever and it continues to grow
A good game with a good theme is gonna keep selling ,just like the last 20 years.

DEMAND INDESTRUCTABLE!!

I think part of the disconnect for Ice is, that for years, Ice was one of the only guys buying EVERYTHING. Every ridiculously expensive game, every ponzi scheme hail mary, didn't matter. If it was crazy expensive, crazy risky, and if the masses thought you were stupid for buying it, Ice was in. He was the high profile outlier.

And now, since HE is having second thoughts, he just figures that means everybody else is too. Cause if the guy who signed up to buy 3 RAZAs is sick of these prices, well, isn't everybody!??!?!!

No. Hobby isn't just one guy.

You and tons of other people seem to be excited to buy Foo.

Congrats! Enjoy the game.

Your theory may be correct, but I'm not sure it matters that much. FOMO is what is keeping companies like Spooky afloat. FOMO helped them sell out of Halloweens before anybody realized how bad it was.

But Do Stern and JJP really need FOMO to stay in business? I think they can sell plenty of games without people freaking out on onsale day. FOMO never really drove their business model much.

Gary is a fucking lifer. His dad was a lifer. It's a different perspective. Stern is a long-haul company.

Well, looks like I’m at least half right.

All right once the 1,000 LE amount is announced.

We can go over this all over again ina few months with venom.

Well ok then. I guess we can table this DEMAND DESTRUCTION convo till venom. Or the next JJP release, whichever comes first (so….venom).

Why does everybody keep saying it's Jack's?

We need some clarity!!

I'll rewatch the teaser 56 times and see if there's any hints.

That's kind of their job, isn't it?

Not sure why anybody would expect them to say "Hey We've got LEs but no rush, nobody wants them, don't bother placing an order with us. Thanks!"

Sorry Ice. Looks like DEMAND DESTRUCTION will have to wait till the next release, as Foo looks awesome and they'll sell a shitload.

But NEXT time...I'm sure of it this time...the goose will be cooked and the bubble will burst.

And if not then probably the next one.

Or for sure the one after that. I'm certain of it.

Yes, you said that and a lot of other stuff and it's all wrong.

Of course they'll sell all 1,000 LEs. Maybe not in 10 minutes but I don't think they care.

DEMAND DESTRUCTION does not exist in pinball at this time.

Do you have your receipt yet from the LE you are buying?

It's so easy between releases (which is the vast majority of the time) - when the natives are bored, grumpy, and restless - to make these sweeping predictions. FOMO is dead, it's all over, etc. etc.

We hear it all the time, every time.

And then a game comes out, it looks awesome, and it's just like old times, every time.

"I didn't think I'd be into this theme, but it looks like they hit it out of the park!! Just ONE MORE LE for me, this one!"

That's just how it is. Pinball is cool. People who collect pinball machines have plenty of disposable income. They buy pinball machines. That's why they are in the hobby.

None of this is gonna change just because prices have gone up a little, or someone can't get a node board, or 4 pinball companies announce a new game in the same month, or one vocal guy who has bought every expensive machine, ever, suddenly declares it's over and we are supposed to believe it.

People STILL want to be the guy who is "right" when they declare it's over, so they'll keep doing it. Even though it's never over. The bubble hasn't burst, the goose isn't cooked, the demand clearly isn't destructed, the "looming recession" hasn't stopped people from buying.

Sorry, I guess. We'll all just have to continue to live with a thriving hobby and industry that keeps giving us what we all want and crave and can't do without.

You can be such a clown with this stuff, always trying to find an angle. I'm seriously flattered that you think I'm some pinball industry maven (is my bullshit really that convincing?!), but I sell 20 games or so a year. It is not my livelihood, it's a hobby, and every cent I "make" goes into buying more pinball machines or paying for parts and the rent on my tiny little workshop. This isn't a secret; I tell my buyers this stuff all the time.

It's all for fun, for me and my friends, and if pinball machines were suddenly worthless tomorrow it wouldn't affect my life one iota.

I don't have shit "riding on it," I just like calling people out on the same dumb proclamations of doom they've been making for 20+ years, and are ALWAYS WRONG.

Maybe next time! FOMO LIVES HERE!

On all of this we agree!

Yeah but there are 50X as many people in the hobby as there was five years ago.

These will sell out easy. In fact that are already sold out. We can quibble about Stern vs. Distributor sellouts, but sold out is sold out. Stern is fat and happy.

Yes, he will be able to.

Or he can pick up a Scooby that isn't built yet for a $600 discount. It's already begun.

We got what we wanted. Demand pruning. The demand is still there but the flipper cushion has been destructed.

DP baby!

If they can't produce pinball machines for people to buy I just don't see them as the best.

It's repeated a lot but pinball is a manufacturing business. And nobody can manufacture like Stern.

And it makes a difference. We see it with Spooky all the time - they are so slow, the FOMO dies off long before people's games are even a glint in the Wisconsin sun, so they sell off their "spots" at large discounts.

If they could manufacture like Stern, this wouldn't happen.

Venom has been the holy grail of demand destruction threads (well yeah, of COURSE Bond LE sold out...but Venom?!?!)...but I'm not so convinced.

If the game looks kickass, you'll see a lot of the same latent FOMO that you are seeing on Foos. "Yeah, I didn't think I'd be interesting in Venom but WOW! Eddy and co hit it out of the park! Time to sell something, I'm in on an LE!!!"

And we'll be right back where we always are. There's also going to be plenty of reminders that Stranger Things got a cool reception and now people are trading kidneys for them.

The demand pruning has us right where they want us. I've said it before, Stern doesn't CARE if these games are instant sellouts, and that's not some kind of barometer of success. Instant sellout just means it's too cheap; just like the Stones don't care if they instantly sell out a Stadium. They are selling tickets for $1500 now, not the $30 they were going for when they were selling out Giants stadium in 10 minutes in 1989.

It's just not that important. Killing the scalpers is the main goal and a tall glass of prune juice is just what the dr. ordered.

This has turned out to be a surprisingly entertaining thread! Thanks drunk Saturday night Ice!