Yes, certain Whitestar and SAM games are absolutely as collectible as many classic B/W’s. Tron, LOTR, MET, ACDC, TWD… are some of the greatest pinballs ever made and demand will only continue to grow as new people enter the hobby. Particularly premium and LE versions that were produced in far fewer numbers than many top ranked B/W’s.

I think you’re putting far too much weight on the inflated rankings of new machines. Most will find their rightful place over time like previous generation games. A Foo Fighters LE will be no more, and likely far less, collectible than LOTR or MET LE.

Absolutely agree with you that pricing has gotten too far ahead of value due to Covid supply/demand, but don’t buy that Gary’s retirement has anything to do with it. He’s still Chairman. He and the similarly recently retired CFO/co-owner are the likely architects of their current business model. Good chance they are positioning the company to maximize generational wealth transfer through some type of ownership transfer.

That’s what I meant by some type of ownership transfer. Don’t think they are big enough for a public offering, but may attract venture capital or be acquired by a larger gaming company. A closely held sale to management / employees would be best IMO since all bets are off if sold to a non-pinball related or investment company.

Gameplay preference aside, I’d say American Pinball clearly offers the best value. Oktoberfest and LOV Deluxe editions are about $8.5k and come with basically everything on a Stern or JJP LE (powder coat, mirrored glass, shaker, art blades upgraded sound…). GTF is also sub $9k and gorgeous. Spooky and API playfields are both great and far better than Stern or JJP, but API’s overall machine design and quality are better than Spooky - but slipping somewhat. Just wish they could actually put all the pieces together on theme and game design to actually compete with Stern.

Wish Stern was still putting the value into their LE's like X-Men. May have been the high point for $ BOM / $ Sales Price with (4) major toys, true mirrored glass... and unique, truly limited art packages. Seems like the LCD display / video assets have sucked too much attention and $'s from the playfield.

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Contrary to the opinion of many on here I don’t know many “rich guys” that don’t care about perceived value or losing money. Higher-and-higher prices obviously push out more-and-more NIB buyers, but the bigger factor driving current softness (or return to normalcy) is likely the risk of losing a meaningful amount on resale. Personally, I don’t mind taking a 10-20% hit, maybe more given the huge enjoyment provided, but will certainly be more careful about what, and when, I buy.

My guess would be X-Men. Stern has done a great job of investing in its A/V capabilities and Insider Connected, but overall they have gained major economies-of-scale to spread out professional salaries, equipment & facilities and other indirect expenses, and design efficiencies with Spike 2, etc. that reduce direct labor and material costs. I’d bet they’ve seen an enormous increase in their margins and profitability - good for them. I think the question is if they’ve been too short term focused in pricing out certain long term and new customers, including operators, important to thriving over time.

I give the Op credit for his very entertaining crusade against the huge and rapid increase in prices, and since Stern is the 800 lb. gorilla in the market it seems OK to single them out. Don't recall anyone on Pinside who's invested more into a thread and taken on all comers without it turning personal. And I'll give him artistic license with terminology or this-or-that fact. Seems like his point isn't really about BOM or other costs but that Stern made a mistake by over reaching for short-term profits versus respecting its long time, loyal customers and pricing to strategically grow the market. Lots of businesses can milk their customers for short-term profits but choose instead to moderate increases with a focus on the longer term. I'd say $1-2K toppers and $13-20k LE's is milking hard.

Very few paid list price, or shipping, in 2012, and your math is wrong. At $7k it’s an 85% increase and even at $7.5k it’s 73%. So about double inflation despite major improvements in technology, e.g. Spike 2, that have offset inflation in many industries. Plus significant economies-of-scale since 2012. Certainly OK to disagree with Op on Stern’s market strategy but the idea that their margins haven’t ballooned is crazy IMO.

Stern has done a great job of incorporating technology to simplify their designs which has obviously significantly reduced material, labor and other costs. In most industries there is no entitlement to fully pass on inflation. Customers expect you to continuously improve productivity, mainly through technology - that’s what drives the US and global economies. Covid distorted everything but things are returning to normal. It’s only because Stern still has no real competition that they’re able to pocket the savings versus passing on to us.

Maybe some LE buyers are happy to spend $3,300 more for $1,000 or less in actual extras but most are obviously paying a premium for the “best,” “limited” model. Gary and Stern have repeatedly hyped the LE for the “collector” market. It’s not about an investment for many but having something special, often around a theme they love. Certainly not unique to pinball. Personally I buy all 3 models depending on the game but think this a BS, shortsighted move by Stern. Arguing that it’s different or doesn’t go against their LE marketing /commitment is a real stretch IMO. But really not a surprise given some of their other, less blatant marketing moves.

You’re not breaking anything to me, but it’s obviously the hype and perception of special that causes otherwise rational people to fork over $13k for a friggin pinball machine

While the idea that Stern, let alone Disney, is at risk of folding is obviously hyperbole, I think it’s fair to compare similarities in their market strategies. Both seem to be over playing their hand by pricing out / alienating a sizable part of their previously loyal, passionate customer base - that may never come back. Milking the market may be lucrative short-term but are there really that many buyers (crazy people) of $7-13k toys to continue to prosper and grow the market. Especially now that the illusion of little to no risk of losing $’s is vanishing.

But it's a pinball forum not the Harvard Law Review.

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So bad, they’re good. Like a B horror movie.

Seems like the major influx of noobs relying on Pinside popularity has further expanded the historical deltas between A-B and C-D titles more than NIB vs. used. Popular older pins like TZ, TAF, TOTAN, TSPP and Tron have skyrocketed similar to NIB, and even secondary titles like BSD and Shadow are way up. Has created some relative bargains for both 90’s and modern used pins if you are willing to stray from the herd.

I don't really follow other collector markets but isn't the strategy to create real or perceived scarcity to justify inflated prices? This is why I think Stern may be killing the golden goose with JP30 LE's and not allowing distributors more flexibly to discount LE's to market demand. High MSRP on LE's, quickly selling them out and creating a frothy secondary market pegs the pricing ladder. If LE's quickly sell out for inflated prices then buyers are OK spending more for pros and premiums - and vice versa.

How can you downvote SpongeBob and Patrick!?

The Op and 99% of the other “complainers” here have never said Stern is evil or don’t have the right to price their product however they want. We just think they’re making a mistake pricing out and alienating so many loyal customers important to the ongoing health of the industry and hobby. A hobbyist selling a single game isn’t analogous to the overwhelming market and price leader.

Pinball is still super niche and the big $ buyers here are a major part of Stern’s sales no matter what they or anyone else claims. Numerous, smart companies, especially high-end niche ones, don’t price to what the market-will-bear but what will build customer loyalty and grow the market across economic & business cycles.

Stern’s strategy may be spot-on, we’ll see, but $13k LE’s, $2k toppers, a new non-industry CEO, 20+ year high interest rates, re-issuing LE’s, etc. is not the normal course of business.

This recent statement from Stern’s co-owner about their factory expansion is very pertinent to the discussion here. Can they really continue to grow the market at 20-30% at current pricing levels?

“The business has been growing at 20% to 30% per year, and we expect that growth to continue for the foreseeable future,” said Peterson, declining to provide revenue figures. “Right now, our space is really, really tight.”

Agree in principle but it’s not the market reality. Growth in pinball has been driven by the fact they’ve retained most of their value. Many could not financially handle, or stomach, regularly taking significant loses. And a healthy secondary market is absolutely key to continued growth of NIB. The fortunate “few” will still buy but the market will grow much slower or even shrink.

Understand your point, but most businesses hate, hate to go backwards on revenue - especially when there is a new CEO and they just doubled their factory size assuming continued 20-30% growth. I’m sure 2023 will be a good year with pulling down their backlog and JP30, but if Elwin’s new game isn’t more than “just fine” it won’t bode well for ‘24. Will probably see more vault/reissue cash grabs. Not a good ongoing business strategy.

That’s actually not true. GDP has slowed but is still positive. Commodity and cyclical businesses ride the general economy but well managed growth companies find ways to continue to growth - especially niche ones like pinball that still have a huge untapped market. That’s why I think Stern may ultimately regret thwarting continued market expansion if they stick to artificial Covid pricing.

Wasn’t trying to suggest the economy is good - far from it. Only that “all businesses” are not going backwards, and that there are plenty of things Stern could do to continue to grow the hobby even in an down/uncertain economy. And I don’t buy that pinball is a luxury good. Seems like it’s largely a middle/upper middle class indulgence that’s grown based on more-and-more people joining the hobby and a healthy secondary market. Doubt many people would classify the crowds at pinball shows as a luxury demo.

Agree, pinball certainly isn’t a necessity so technically a luxury. Just think that the current pinball softness has as much, or more, to do with the perception/reality of reduced value from rapid, double inflation level price increases than the pinball crowd cutting non-necessity spending. It may be a “luxury” but don’t believe it’s historically followed other “luxury good” markets, but may be wrong.

Stern deserves a lot of respect for how they’ve navigated the market and grown the business over the last decade plus. And you’d assume they understand the current market far better than anyone - but many otherwise successful businesses stumble or even fail when they are slow to correct or change course, especially during times of leadership transition.

I don’t think it’s a question of greed but trying to maximize short and longer term profits. Imagine Stern believes it can maximize current profits AND continue to grow sales double-digits. We’ll see. Businesses have lots of momentum and can be slow to react to changing realities.

The care thing to me isn’t about emotion but appreciating the importance of building long-term customer loyalty/relationships. Same as acknowledging quality issues and making warranty claims painless even if they eat into short term profits.

Looks like flip n out and the pinball dudes are selling more lightly used games at good to excellent prices. Guessing they are offering good value on trades to help keep NIB inventory turning. Seems like a smart way to work within/around Stern’s minimum MSRP.

My guess is that there is only $500-1000 cost difference between models. Backglass, powder, glass, blades, shaker, different art, upgraded sound and side rails can’t add more than $50-100 each, especially at 1000 units. And hard to imagine a few extra mechs and molds add more than $1k. Even if it’s somewhat more, a meaningful drop in overall premium/LE sales will obviously be very painful to their sales and earnings projections. They will probably use more LE reissues and/or premium vaults to bolster volumes, and only lower minimum MSRP as a last resort.

Can’t imagine them making major price cuts, but incremental volume can be extremely attractive given high fixed factory and game development costs. Especially since Spike 2 simplification has significantly reduced direct labor costs. PLUS, every new buyer they attract to the hobby will likely end up buying a number of machines $$$$$. And vice-versa. They’ve worked very hard to successfully grow the market. Would be stupid to let it really slip back.

My experience working through numerous business cycles is that markets usually don’t move slowly. “One unit” short of demand is a supply crisis and “one unit” of excess capacity is a glut. Prices shot through the roof during Covid but it seems like many think they will now slowly adjust back and only several hundred off new. Or if you believe some podcasters, the slowdown is already over and it’s back to “buy, buy, buy.” Prices are definitely stickier coming down but there are plenty of signs in the marketplace that the impact may be deeper and quicker. Used markets are more open so typically adjust first but new markets are definitely not immune to used. Will be interesting to see how things play out.

Ignore and it will be dead to you.

But they could easily lower minimum MSRP and allow dealers to adjust street pricing to title-to-title demand like “the good old days.” Would probably have little impact on used pricing of existing games since less popular titles are already selling at steep discounts.

Why would they want to step into the lion’s den of slots? They’d be a nothing going up against billion $ entrenched competitors, and selling to take-no-prisoner global casinos at relatively slim margins. So many more profitable opportunities to grow pinball as the dominant player.

How often has that worked? Minor company with no fundamental advantages and numerous disadvantages trying to take down big, entrenched competitors on price. Would be very surprised if Stern is focused on anything other than how to continue to grow pinball for the next generation. Makes no sense to take their eye off the ball - or let the market shrink due to overreaching on price.

The wild card is if all the new people (and their significant others) that entered the hobby in the last few years can now stomach 15-20% losses on much higher NIB prices. Plus “old-timers” that will think much harder about rotating games. Plenty will still buy, but if even 2 or 3 out of 10 step to the sidelines it could be very tough for Stern and especially the others.

Have to give Stern credit for successfully positioning pros as being a good value at $7k by charging even more exorbitant amounts for premiums and LE’s.

Yes, but how many of the 1000 LE’s were really being flipped versus all the business negatives of killing FOMO? Lots to be said for creating excitement in the market, quickly selling out LE’s, and reaping the associated benefits of a larger customer base and premium sales.