(Topic ID: 340728)

Future NIB pinball market? MEME’s

By Thunderbird

4 months ago


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    #1 4 months ago

    What’s the future of the NIB pinball market???

    This chart shows how badly we are being ripped off in 2023 by $$$tern…
    IMG_1384.jpegIMG_1384.jpeg

    This thread is not an attempt to be negative, rather it’s a discussion about our current state of affairs in the hobby we all enjoy and where it’s going. Fearing there’s going to be another pinball implosion soon. We are at the beginning of the storm now. Stern and JJP know this and are beginning to see what they’ve done to the market place.

    Seriously Stern and JJP have killed both of their golden egg laying gooses. Their core loyal buyers are pausing or stopping further purchases, because they’ve taken the margin we faithful had to buy games and then sell later to fund the next one for minimal gain or loss. The pricing scheme balance is now gone, with sky high MSRPs increased at such large percentages. Only consideration Stern made is to their 30% location PRO market, keeping price increases to a paltry few percentage points. Stern’s main core LE/PRE and JJPs CE/LE buyers are now upside down in whatever they purchase from these two companies.

    Stern’s greed has basically destroyed their own loyal core buying market, whom were primed and ready to buy each LE that came down the line. But now that group may rethink and most likely not buy most, if not any LEs in the future. Stern has conjured a triple whammy on the pinball market they built. They destroyed that delicate balance where a buyer could pay MSRP, play the game for a year or two and then sell it at break even or make a little or at a loss of no more than around $500 as long as the title/layout was a good one.

    Stern doubled LEs to 1,000, making them far less collectible. Then Stern upped the MSRP price from Stranger Things that sold for $9,099.00 to a whopping $12,999.00 and did not increase BOM value. On top of that, most LE buyers want to finish their collectible and buy a topper, which is now up to $1,999.00, plus $250.00 for a shooter rod, plus tax and shipping. To make matters worse, pandemic demand was at an all time high since people were home most of the time, unable to travel. Stern decides to meet demand by moving to a new factory that can now output 1,000 machines a week instead of the 500 a week they had been making. But because Stern has screwed over their loyal buying base that took every LE, which in turn had a halo effect that sold premiums and pros that market is beginning to dry up. Now distributors will be loaded up on inventory collecting dust with few buyers and higher interest rates being charged on unsold stock.

    Stern did all this in the name of the few scalpers that were out in the wild, which most of us would never purchase from anyway. Inflation has also been claimed to be a reason, but if it really was a reason then why was it only Stern and JJP that raised their prices so insanely high? The rest of the market, Spooky, CGC, AP, etc. kept pricing near or at the $10k mark. Stern is now $5,000.00 above that, including a topper, as well as JJP also being $5,000.00 above that level too.

    This has been a very interesting phenomenon to watch unfold. FOMO buying is now almost dried up and will be completely over when more NIB buyers lose big money in the secondary market. Stern and JJP have very foolishly sucked up that margin the loyal buying base once had by an insane 30% to 40% price jump in a very short time.

    Stern and JJP will have to decrease production or prices or both to lure us back into the market place. Most of us have many machines already, but with the HUO market slowing down to a crawl, we’ll not be buying any longer because who in their right mind wants to keep losing in a hobby that once was balanced for manufacturer, seller, buyer and the HUO market? Answer is, few to no one will continue in such a high priced arena where the market is so unbalanced now.

    What are your thoughts on this important subject, as price balance versus BOM is very much a feature of any pinball game?

    Added on September 3, 2023:

    Pinball Addicts Anonymous (PAA) Oath:
    _______________________________________________
    Grant me the serenity that my current pinball lineup or location pinball playing is sufficient; 

    To accept absurd greedy pinball prices I cannot change as something I don’t need;

    Courage to change the things I can in the secondary used (HUO) market;

    And wisdom to know the difference between FOMO and real want or need;
    
Living one day at a time on my new path away from my pinball addiction past;

    Enjoying one moment at a time as I play pinball machines purchased during a more balanced era;
    When pinball companies considered pricing versus value added products as sound business practices;
    
Accepting and helping other pinball FOMO addicted brothers with their NIB hardships through finding comfort in treasures we already own or play on location as the pathway to peace;
    Unite scammed, fleeced and plundered suffering pinball addict brothers! A new day is dawning!
    (Repeat daily)

    #2 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    What are your thoughts on this important subject,

    My thought is I don't think it's important.

    LTG : )

    18
    #3 4 months ago
    Quoted from LTG:

    My thought is I don't think it's important.
    LTG : )

    But pricing is the most important feature of any product, so don’t understand why you don’t think it’s important? All markets for any product consider price to be the most important decision any manufacturer will ever make. If its not important why not charge $20k for an LE, $16k for a Premium and $12k for a Pro?

    #4 4 months ago

    This is a normal business cycle. Gary Stern has proved himself to be a solid businessman, amongst other things, for keeping the hobby alive in the early 2000s. Stern didn't collapse. He recognized a downturn was natural after business booming the past few years, so they cranked prices as high as possible during the boom to survive things turning over. Normal business cycle. Prices may go down a bit, maybe... but I bet we see another big boom after everyone's unclenched from the recession that didn't happen. I noticed your comment about games being collectible... stern doesn't care about that at all. We might, but that's not a concern of their business model in the slightest.

    13
    #5 4 months ago

    I haven't been back into the hobby for long but personally I think used prices are ridiculous and should be much lower than they are right now. If more production from Stern fixes THAT by increasing supply I'll be happy. You shouldn't be able to make a bad purchasing decision then flip the game for what you paid (or more) even with a low number of games played. It's ridiculous.

    What's odd is that I'm also out of the NIB market. And it's more about quality control and less about price. My used purchases despite inflated prices have been better experiences because the games are broken in and work properly. My NIBs for around the same price have required multiple repairs and lengthy troubleshooting. Stern is thriving right now entirely on the strength of their designers. Everything else seems less and less of a value all the time.

    But anyways maybe we do see a crash because prices in general are too high while quality drops and I have a nice collection of games again and don't NEED anymore. But it won't be because flippers buying everything sight unseen are getting 'screwed'.

    #6 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    But pricing is the most important feature of any product, so don’t understand why you don’t think it’s important? All markets for any product consider price to be the most important decision any manufacturer will ever make. If its not important why not charge $20k for an LE, $16k for a Premium and $12k for a Pro?

    Pricing is not the most important feature of every product. Take commercial products like large HVAC units. Availability is #1 when a unit fails in extreme temperatures.
    When someone wants to buy an extremely limited or high end automobile, they will pay the market price. Even if above MSRP. Bugatti customer don't even care aboot a $200k "market adjustment". It's barely a rounding error.
    New construction building materials are another example wher quality/specificatins trump price. A greta example is the preparation for the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Paddock building, bleachers for off-strip viewing areas and street conversion to F1 specs had priority given to material specs/quality and availability.

    15
    #7 4 months ago

    The Home business is relatively new as far this industry goes . And they squeezed it hard ! I think they learned that 7k was too cheap and there was money on the table . But I also think they are going to learn that 13-15 k is too much . Bond 60th was an ultimate squeeze move and they got burned . I am sure they will try for 15k again. If buyers are out there it may stick . I’m not paying that no matter the title ,
    Plenty of good games here at home and the saturated market will put plenty more out there for resale .

    26
    #8 4 months ago

    Just when you think we've had enough word-salad posts of price complaints..."THINK AGAIN!"

    17
    #9 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    But pricing is the most important feature of any product, so don’t understand why you don’t think it’s important? All markets for any product consider price to be the most important decision any manufacturer will ever make. If it’s not important why not charge $20k for an LE, $16k for a Premium and $12k for a Pro?

    I wish, just like everyone else, that Covid didn’t fuck up the hobby we love.
    I miss picking up the 4k Sterns and 2k Bally/Williams, but here we are

    #10 4 months ago

    You'd think this dramatic increase in pricing would leave the door open for a manufacturer to come in and grab a big market share by undercutting competitors and offering more affordable games, but it doesn't really appear to have happened yet. Maybe it doesn't work that way.

    #11 4 months ago
    Quoted from Bohm:

    You'd think this dramatic increase in pricing would leave the door open for a manufacturer to come in and grab a big market share by undercutting competitors and offering more affordable games, but it doesn't really appear to have happened yet. Maybe it doesn't work that way.

    Actually it should work that way in a competitive market like pinball. But because Stern has such a great designer stable and top IPs, it makes it difficult for others to come in and steal market share. We would hope that someone would or could come in and bring back some sanity to one of the top features, pricing equal to value added BOMs for MSRP asked. A real competitor could do that, but it’s not ever happened in pinball yet. Many of us have hoped that JJP, Spooky, AP or CGC would fill that role. The market is ripe for the taking.

    #12 4 months ago

    My thoughts are you said you didn’t want to be negative and then spent the next 7 paragraphs being negative… so I found that weird. To be fair I didn’t read them all after the first 3 were so negative so maybe it got positive but I didn’t want to read past that.

    #13 4 months ago
    Quoted from roar:

    My thoughts are you said you didn’t want to be negative and then spent the next 7 paragraphs being negative… so I found that weird. To be fair I didn’t read them all after the first 3 were so negative so maybe it got positive but I didn’t want to read past that.

    Discussing our sad situation is not a negative, rather the reality of what’s happening in our hobby. Calling out manufacturers gouging pricing schemes is part of a consumers duty. Otherwise, prices will continue to rise out of control.

    #14 4 months ago

    So many golden gooses, so little time.

    22
    #15 4 months ago

    as an operator, I will never buy NIB again
    as a wise man once told me
    "if it doesn't make dollars,
    it doesn't make cents"

    free play arcades have cannibalized the already crushed coin-op industry

    #16 4 months ago
    Quoted from fuzz:

    as an operator, I will never buy NIB again
    as a wise man once told me
    "if it doesn't make dollars,
    it doesn't make cents"
    free play arcades have cannibalized the already crushed coin-op industry

    That’s so unfortunate for the backbone of our hobby, the location operators are important to the industry.

    #17 4 months ago

    Hard to call it greed when nobody else can do it better or cheaper... Maybe Deeproot can get back in the game and show Stern how to do it.

    #18 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    This thread is not an attempt to be negative.

    Okay, you say you're not going to be negative.

    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    There’s going to be a pinball implosion soon. We are at the beginning of the storm now.
    Stern and JJP have killed the golden goose. Their loyal core buyers are pausing or stopping further purchases.
    Stern’s greed has destroyed their loyal buyers, who can no longer play the game for a year or two and then sell it and break even.
    FOMO buying is now almost dried up and will be completely over when more NIB buyers lose big money in the secondary market.
    Stern and JJP will have to decrease production or reduce prices or both to lure us back into the marketplace.
    We’ll not be buying because who wants to lose money in a hobby that once was balanced for the seller, buyer and the HUO market?

    This is an example of you not being negative?

    #19 4 months ago
    Quoted from littlecammi:

    Okay, you say you're not going to be negative.

    This is an example of you not being negative? Are you sure you even know how to not be negative?

    Discussing reality is not negativity.

    #20 4 months ago
    Quoted from bocce:

    Hard to call it greed when nobody else can do it better or cheaper... Maybe Deeproot can get back in the game and show Stern how to do it.

    Hmmm, so you support a huge disparity imbalance between manufacturer and buyer?

    #21 4 months ago

    I so very much don't want to get in the middle of this cluster but I'm somewhat sure that's not what they said. Now... Perhaps that is what they mean and you gleaned that from the quoted text, and if so, by golly you are a freaking svengali but I didn't get there....ill step back and let them clarify and mind my own business from here on out.

    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    Hmmm, so you support a huge disparity imbalance between manufacturer and buyer?

    17
    #22 4 months ago

    oh no my 10k toy is expensive how did this happen

    #23 4 months ago

    This maybe a difficult discussion to have here, since there are so many Stern Army gatekeepers that have some kind of connection with Stern, so they don’t care what’s happened to prices?

    #25 4 months ago
    dc2abf19d14c745e3f5835737f90652a (resized).jpgdc2abf19d14c745e3f5835737f90652a (resized).jpg
    #26 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    If its not important why not charge $20k for an LE, $16k for a Premium and $12k for a Pro?

    We are getting there. Takes time to go from $4400 in 2014 to $7000 in 2022. Slow and steady wins the race!!!

    18
    #27 4 months ago
    Quoted from LTG:

    My thought is I don't think it's important.
    LTG : )

    I am on a self-induced hobby budget. Jaws may be my last nib. Hoping it’s off of the original and a great design.

    That being said…

    Pricing is important to me. Important enough I may not buy my dream theme.

    #28 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    a huge disparity imbalance between manufacturer and buyer

    That evil 'ol Stern, forcing their evil ol' games on us poor ol' buyers.

    #29 4 months ago

    What I want to know:
    What's the price to dealers for pro/Prem.
    What's the "minimum allowed sale price" for prems? (I assume it's lower than 9500).
    Which games are people able to get for under 9500 now?
    Anyone doing better than 7k on a pro?

    I don't know why this info isn't out there. Can I just call to stern and inquiry about becoming a dealer and get that info??

    For the 99% of us that are the consumer, would be great for us to have this info. Maybe not as much for the dealers, but who cares. In most industries it's not really a secret.

    #30 4 months ago
    Quoted from underlord:

    I am on a self-induced hobby budget. Jaws may be my last nib. Hoping it’s off of the original and a great design.
    That being said…
    Pricing is important to me. Important enough I may not buy my dream theme.

    Nice to have a few of us still concerned about where the hobby is going. Pricing is a never ending subject, but when it was better balanced it was less of an issue than now.

    20
    #31 4 months ago

    Buy pins or don’t.

    #32 4 months ago
    Quoted from Sorokyl:

    What I want to know:
    What's the price to dealers for pro/Prem.
    What's the "minimum allowed sale price" for prems? (I assume it's lower than 9500).
    Which games are people able to get for under 9500 now?
    Anyone doing better than 7k on a pro?
    I don't know why this info isn't out there. Can I just call to stern and inquiry about becoming a dealer and get that info??
    For the 99% of us that are the consumer, would be great for us to have this info. Maybe not as much for the dealers, but who cares. In most industries it's not really a secret.

    Some really good questions. Agreed this information would be helpful, but kept a secret because of Stern dealer agreements. I’ve heard dealers make a $1500 cut on pros/pre and more on LE/SLE. Could be more though so not sure. Don’t begrudge dealer cut, because a good dealer is worth the cost.

    #33 4 months ago

    Wow,bring out the pitchforks in force!!

    -1
    #34 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    What’s the future of the NIB pinball market???

    You wrote 87 paragraphs on this?

    #35 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    Nice to have a few of us still concerned about where the hobby is going. Pricing is a never ending subject, but when it was better balanced it was less of an issue than now.

    The only reason why it is was possible for some to basically play brand new games for free for a year was because there was a massively unbalanced market.

    If you somehow snatched up a NIB game during the covid shortage you could play it for a year and sell it with a profit because everything NIB was sold out so the used market became crazy.

    It sounds like you are unhappy that this weird market is coming to an end or maybe I’m misunderstanding you.

    I think it’s great that a customer who isn’t networked with distributors for first dibs on NIBs can finally buy games again for MSRP with minimal wait. Yes, it’s more expensive.

    It does mess with this (your?) sweet setup where one could buy/play/sell/profit so I guess it can be annoying to avid pintraders.

    #36 4 months ago
    Quoted from galore2112:

    The only reason why it is was possible for some to basically play brand new games for free for a year was because there was a massively unbalanced market.
    If you somehow snatched up a NIB game during the covid shortage you could play it for a year and sell it with a profit because everything NIB was sold out so the used market became crazy.
    It sounds like you are unhappy that this weird market is coming to an end or maybe I’m misunderstanding you.
    I think it’s great that a customer who isn’t networked with distributors for first dibs on NIBs can finally buy games again for MSRP with minimal wait. Yes, it’s more expensive.
    It does mess with this (your?) sweet setup where one could buy/play/sell/profit so I guess it can be annoying to avid pintraders.

    Personally have never profited from pinball and not in the hobby to do so. Stock market is my game for that, lol.

    Do not mind Stern making a healthy profit, because that is the reason they’re in business. It’s the extreme imbalance that has happened when prices were pushed up 42.9% on LEs since ST for example that’s so disturbing. While BOM has remained the same or even appears to be much less in some cases. Like one poster pointed out, LE purchases are now $500 or less going toward the BOM to make the LE version and $2500+ toward the CEO/Pres signature. Its never been that crazy out of whack before.

    22
    #37 4 months ago

    I think Stern was ultra stupid and blinded by a quick cash grab that ultimately will cost the company much more, yet enriches Gary and whatever his name is.

    They could have just kept prices around the 7.6K level for premiums and increased output to increase profitability/availability with economies of scale.
    This would have made them the McDonalds of pinball, hooked a new generation of players, and been affordable enough for many people to buy every single one (or close to it).

    Instead they traded that optimal potential in for a big nutty brown pile of "Lifestyle Brand" bulls**t.
    Stern got lazy and greedy. Simple as that.

    Gary wanted some more Harley's for his retirement, and his business partner wanted the numbers goosed for the coming IPO.
    Enter Disney-Boy as they exit stage-left.

    Just wait till Apollo or Blackstone owns them Then the pinheads will really be squealing.
    In five years it'll change from the company you hate to love, to the company you love to hate.

    #38 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    A real competitor could do that, but it’s not ever happened in pinball yet.

    A real competitor would want to maximize their own profits, not drive down prices. Also, if overproduction drives down prices, producers leave the industry. Remember WAY BACK when Stern was the only pinball producer.

    #39 4 months ago
    Quoted from Thunderbird:

    Stern upped the MSRP price from Stranger Things that sold for $9,099.00 to a whopping $12,999.00

    Ive been away for some time, when did this happen? Did they make another stranger things?

    #40 4 months ago
    Quoted from Bud:

    Ive been away for some time, when did this happen? Did they make another stranger things?

    Never mind, I think you were referring to the “LE” model in general starting from stranger things.

    #41 4 months ago

    Also, complaining about LE pricing is a bit like complaining about Franklin Mint pricing.
    Buy the Premium, it's the exact same game without the artificial collectability.

    Wait, I just noticed that you are complaining both about Stern producing too many LEs, and pricing them too high. If either of those is true, Stern won't sell them all. Then prices will come down. That's how it works.

    #42 4 months ago

    "Then Stern upped the MSRP price from Stranger Things that sold for $9,099.00 to a whopping $12,999.00 and did not increase BOM value."

    Insider Connected. Mandalorian was the last LE released without IC I believe. MSRP was 9199 I think at that time, which was 2021, 2 years after Stranger Things.

    #43 4 months ago

    most people i know are only buying dream titles or games that have a big following. i bought rush, thats my last nib for a long time. nothing released in the last yr from any of the pinball makers has interested me at these current prices.

    -8
    #44 4 months ago
    Quoted from PinStalker:

    I think Stern was ultra stupid and blinded by a quick cash grab that ultimately will cost the company much more, yet enriches Gary and whatever his name is.
    They could have just kept prices around the 7.6K level for premiums and increased output to increase profitability/availability with economies of scale.
    This would have made them the McDonalds of pinball, hooked a new generation of players, and been affordable enough for many people to buy every single one (or close to it).
    Instead they traded that optimal potential in for a big nutty brown pile of "Lifestyle Brand" bulls**t.
    Stern got lazy and greedy. Simple as that.
    Gary wanted some more Harley's for his retirement, and his business partner wanted the numbers goosed for the coming IPO.
    Enter Disney-Boy as they exit stage-left.
    Just wait till Apollo or Blackstone owns them Then the pinheads will really be squealing.
    In five years it'll change from the company you hate to love, to the company you love to hate.

    Finally we are getting the discussion I’d hoped for, instead of simpletons that think prices are not important, lol. (They’ll pay anything for their new Stern toy, just give them their fix.)

    Yes, Stern has been “super stupid” and near sighted on the future of the business. It will cost them severely in the future, as greed has been the way they’ve setup their new business model. Every commenter here denying and mocking this fact, either works for Stern or striving to gain favor. There are a lot of corporate/sock puppet accounts here making mocking snide comments, while us real pinball hobbyists are trying to have a legitimate discussion on the subject.

    #45 4 months ago

    I have been under the impression that the jump in prices was driven by inflation and shortages hitting chip and other pinball components. Manufacturing expenses must have soared during Covid. Accordingly, prices on pro, prem and LE models should all have increased the same percentage. If LE prices rose by a greater percentage, I think it was people buying LEs as an investment. Would like to see that go away.

    #46 4 months ago

    All these complaints about price increases (in a predominately rich guy's hobby)... has it actually led to decreased sales?

    #47 4 months ago

    Ultimately, as long as people are buying machines at these prices, there's no reason to lower them. Pretty simple really

    13
    #48 4 months ago
    Quoted from PinStalker:

    I think Stern was ultra stupid and blinded by a quick cash grab that ultimately will cost the company much more, yet enriches Gary and whatever his name is.
    They could have just kept prices around the 7.6K level for premiums and increased output to increase profitability/availability with economies of scale.
    This would have made them the McDonalds of pinball, hooked a new generation of players, and been affordable enough for many people to buy every single one (or close to it).
    Instead they traded that optimal potential in for a big nutty brown pile of "Lifestyle Brand" bulls**t.
    Stern got lazy and greedy. Simple as that.
    Gary wanted some more Harley's for his retirement, and his business partner wanted the numbers goosed for the coming IPO.
    Enter Disney-Boy as they exit stage-left.
    Just wait till Apollo or Blackstone owns them Then the pinheads will really be squealing.
    In five years it'll change from the company you hate to love, to the company you love to hate.

    Neither Apollo or Blackstone would invest in Stern or pinball.

    IPO? That’s even funnier. I’d love to see it, a penny stock, that would be a great short

    It is amazing the amount of defenders of today’s pricing. The Stern Army pumping it up?

    Won’t matter. Can’t fight reality.

    17
    #49 4 months ago

    FFS, did Levi take the night off?

    22
    #50 4 months ago

    Imo, it’s on the LE that Stern have really jumped the shark. They can and should adjust pricing/volume there.

    But what is really interesting is how much do we think the hobby is really growing at the moment. How many new collectors (and locations) are entering the market and how much space is left in existing collectors homes? My feeling is the number of new collectors has slowed significantly due to Covid ending (travel and going out is back with vengeance) and interest rates/cost of living pressures. And, anecdotally, most existing collectors have reached saturation, if not in space, then in dollars.

    Pinball is not a disposable commodity. If a game gets old, you don’t throw it out, it just gets rotated through collectors collections for decades. Everyone expects to get a reasonable return on selling their game. Locations rely on good resale or the whole exercise doesn’t stack up.

    So if the market is not growing (or growing slowly) and games aren’t going into landfill, who absorbs the 30-50,000 new Stern games 10(?) thousand other games per year?

    There are 2,523 posts in this topic. You are on page 1 of 51.

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