There's nothing like the real thing...however, I have 10 pins and a virtual pin...with pinball fx2,pin all arcade and visual pinball running. I play my "real" pins a lot, don't ban me for saying this, but I play the virtual pin more.
It's a different beast, but to me, just as addidictive. Guitar hero isn't "real" guitar, and racing games aren't "real" race cars.....but virtual pinball is a hell of a lot closer to the real thing as both of those type of games.
As far as competitive play, there are monthly tournaments for pbfx2 and pinball arcade....and PBA has a head to head in beta now! I'd love fo real pinball to be able to play online with other pins of the same kind and settings.
I play in league every week...and I absolutely love real pinball......I don't think pinball will die, but it will have to evolve.