Nothing can replace a real pinball machine. It never will.
With that being said, there is room for VR pinball in this hobby. It is not a threat to the real thing, only a substitution. It is like one of those electronic cigarettes (refer to picture example), it helps with the craving and will get me by until I can get my hands on the real thing.
Pinball is dead where I live. There are no sited pins here and I may never get the opportunity to play some of the classics. VR pinball will give me the opportunity to try them out. Get a feel for the rules and gameplay. Then when I am ready to part with my hard earned $5000-$10,000 I will be more confident I've made the right decision. (Pins are more expensive here than some other parts of the world)
I have the Oculus Rift CV1 and I built a dedicated VR pinball controller (refer to picture) It has a working plunger, it registers nudge/tilt and it weighs a ton, adding to the sense I am holding the real thing when in VR. Until you have tried pinball in the Rift, I urge people to reserve judgement. It is pretty good now, and like the OP said, in five years will be fantastic, especially when using a dedicated controller like I ( and many others) have built.
It will never replace the real thing, but it is a good substitute for those of us that can't get their hands on the real deal.
