Simulation will become better and better, getting closer and closer to the real thing.of course some things are easier to simulate than others: pinball, being a closed world under a glass, is not among the most difficult things for sure. It will take some more decades, and it will never be like the real thing. But when the gap will
Be enough small, virtual will kill the real thing. Of course somebody will still own, play and fix real
Machines. Like somebody these days still travel with horses, just for fun.
Anyway, I think it will take some decades,so in the meanwhile - with existing quite good but not "perfect" simulations - the real things will still rule.
Btw, when technology will be so evolved after many decades, not phisical pinball only will become a thing of the past. Many more important aspects of life will be involved, and probably homo sapiens himself will technologically evolve into something else, togheter with social structures, economics, politics, etc.
In conclusion: i think we will enjoy phisical
Pinball for long time. Prices will not change dramatically, too.
Note: those thoeries on technological evolution, exponential growth, singularity, etc.dates back decades ago. Kurzweil popularized them very successfully. Musk is only reporting them, he certainly did not createany of them.

I am following the transhumanist movement for over a decade. I do not think they hate humanity at all. They love it, but look forward improving it. I personally think life (especially if you play pinball is wonderful, as well as all humans. But it saddens me that I will be able to play pinball for only few more decades. I am up for upgrading to few more decades of lifespan (just to mention one of the transhumanist goals). At the same time I am well aware of the risks involved. I am not sure I can call myself a transhumanist, but I am for sure an Humanist. So I believe the goal is to improve the human comditions but leaving the highest human values intact. And yes, we often learn whats good and right from limitations, from scarcity. So, although initially great, I believe transhumans could become monsters of egoism living in abundance. And that could lead to distruction. Its the same as learning to live being very rich: you can deal with it, but it takes a lot of discipline. Look how many Hollywood stars, abundant in money, sex, power, etc, ended up.

sooner or later we'll get there. sooner or later, according to Ray Kurzweil and others, we will spend most of our time in virtual environments. ..Probably we just have to worry about the present times
Or, I mean, if you think/worry about the impact VR can have on pinball, then you should also think/worry about the impact it will have on many other things. Surely it's going to be a progressive pattern, requiring more and more technological advances for increasingly difficult simulations. Perfectly (or almost) simulating a pinball game is probably less complicated than many other things, so it's going to happen earlier than other type of simulations.
The point is: how much better will the real thing be compared to the future high-tech simulation? If it's going to be 5% better, than I guess most people will move to VR: no maintenance, low cost. If the difference is going to be like 30% better, than I guess most people will stick to the real thing. It's too early to say, but I guess there will be a threshold point where it will not be worthed anymore to stick to a real pinball machine. There will be several versions of VRs, until we get to this threshold point.

excellent!!

It depends on the technical level of the virtualization. Mp3 took over vinyl and cds because they are a very close copy of the original. Not idintical, but very very close. A selected few can tell the difference and appreciate analog, but digital definitely took over, no question. When we talk about pinball survival, we refer to a certain amount of people in the hobby like it is today. When there will be only few hundred people left in the hobby, that will be archeology, and not a niche hobby anymore. Everybody will be able to get any single title they wish, and prices will crash.

Pinball is a coin operated game, but also a phisical one. I think an emulation at the same quality level as mp3 for music (which is not exactly "3D") is very far away. But when/if it will happen, pinball will become something for archeologists.
Also, when that will happen, I believe many other things of this world will go digital and we will be living in an entirely different world. Even humans will be something else from what we are now.

But this is close to sci-fi. I guess that for several decades at least real pinball will still be way better than virtualized versions. So I think the hobby will be fine over the next decades. I do not know if it will grow or shrink: lots of hardcore players will get old, maybe their children will continue with the hobby, new generations will enter the market but hard to say to which extent (will they collect a few, or tens of machines?). My guess is that probably all in all the market won't change much from how it is now.

Amazing effort. It's going to be part of the history of pinball. It looks like there are only very few people that can do it, it's essential to archive and digitize it soon.