I think a combo of VR and real pinball (augment reality aka P2K) Will be the ticket. You can still enjoy your real games and then add virtual stuff on top of it making it new again.

The futiure is looking brighter every day.
pawculus-virtual-reality-for-dogs-cone-extension (resized).jpg

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-we-living-in-a-computer-simulation/

I interpreted Elon Musk's point this way:

Less than 100 years ago (during the 1920s) is when we first started really powering homes with electricity. We've also only had the internet since the late 80's/early 90's.

Think of the level of tech advancement humans have achieved in just the past 100 years, which is nothing but a razor thin slice on the timeline of our species. Even if the rate of innovation remained level for the next 100 years, the technology we will have at that point is stuff that we can't even comprehend right now.

His example was specific around the rate at which gaming technology has increased, theorizing that in another 20 years, it will be indistinguishable from what we call real life today. That prompts his question, has our species already gotten there and we are the ones in the simulation?

If we were in a similation, wouldn't the simulator have issued me a cell phone by now?

And...back to the original thread and the original question...NO

That's the law of accelerating returns, as coined by Kurzweil who believes we will have computers as fast and smart as humans by 2030 based on moore's law of computing power doubling every 18 years:
http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-662-05642-4_16

This is another interesting video talking about CRISPR (new genetics modification method) that has sped up experiments by 50x, and lowered cost by 100x. It also talks about how genetics is where computers were at in 1970, and in 10 years we will be amazed at what they can do. My hope is they'll look at cancer and think "wow, doctors really treated it with radiation?"

04c974e18d8daa1ddb301fb93ab300ec (resized).jpg

I couldn't agree more. The more we unlock the power of genetics, the faster we can get past the silly stuff like disease, hunger, etc... We will all be better off for it.

Today's medicine will be looked at the way we look at drilling holes in peoples heads and treating them with cocaine, for sure.

I once build myself a virtual pinball cabinet,
virtual pinball ,future pinball, fx2, pinball arcade etc.
it was fun
it was nice having so mutch tables
it was realy interesting using BAM better arcade mode which is a program that makes i look like real 3d using an xbox cinect
google it youll be amazed!

but.....

the building was more fun then playing
it just never felt real, i was always tweaking the physics ,friction etc.

its okay but its not pinball.
Maybe one day it will come realy close
but there is no repairing, modding, and the real flow and lighting etc

Darpanet has been around. Just because it was named the internet in the 90's doesn't change the fact that it existed. Heck, in france you could pay for it commercially in the early 80's.

I didn't even know that was out there....I thought I was almost finished with my build....jeez

I'm looking up...and adding BAM. Freaking awesome

http://www.ravarcade.pl

here's the website with installation and program
best to use the cinect or cinect2

have fun!

the guy who develloped this is freaking brilliant!

but still not real pinball!

What he said!!!!!

Thanks jorro....digital pinball , like pbfx and pba as well as future pinball, have the same physics as the VR versions. So it is almost impossible to address the op's original question ,without including a conversation about regular digital pinball. As the physics of these programs improve....so does the VRs physics. Ball spin, friction, collision physics are all improving.....maybe one day to the point that we can cash in on all those pinball skills that we spent many many hours fine tuning on "real" pinball machines.
It's probably frustrating for "purists" to lose that advantage when playing digital pinball. But tap passing , dead flips, post passing and such are getting better every day in the digital world. I welcome this evolution. And I continue to try and improve on real tables. I know for a fact digital has improved my "real" game.

To answer the OP's question..... No

Its like replacing baseball, basketball, football, etc ....... with a electronic video version of that game. Nothing will replace the reality and real human skill it takes to play those kind of games, including pinball.

I want to be around to experience cybersex on top of a virtual pinball cabinet.

cyberwar (resized).jpg

Actually, there are. This is just one of at least five that are available. They just added support for the Vive as well.

VR pinball will get a lot better as physics engines become more capable, and eventually, for most, it will be a suitable enough replacement that actual physical pinball machine production will most like become a boutique thing. However, the one thing I hear from people who play virtual pinball without access to real pinball machines is "gee, if only we had some real pinball machines here", so I think it's up to collectors to organize events and have people over in places where physical pinball is all but dead. Throw pinball parties, put up flyers, let people know, because then they'll have played the real thing and they'll be hooked on it, too, and that betters the chances of physical pinball lasting.

Had a VP for awhile. nice to try out tables, but no where close to the real thing. Today NO, tomorrow, we'll see.

I started out a couple years ago by getting interested in Visual Pinball and stumbled across the virtual pin cabinets and projects as well as VirtuaPin. I was going to build one or buy a VirtuaPin and add solenoids and shaker motors to make it more realistic.

Finally, I went out and tried some real pinball for the first time in decades. Immediately, I got caught up it the magic of the machine. I bought a Bally SS and regularly hit local places to play newer Sterns.

A few months ago, I drove about 100 miles to hit an arcade with 20 pins and low and belold it had a VirtuaPin. The owner actually tried to sell me the VirtuaPin for a bargain price. I was sooo glad I didn't buy one. Not that it was terrible. It just wasn't pinball. I now play The Pinball Arcade and love it. But it isn't pinball.

We'll see where the technology is in 5 years but I doubt VP will ever replace the physical interaction and social aspect. You know there have been virtual bowling and pool games forever but I doubt you'll see pool tables disappear.

I hear roy2 is coming soon to blips n chitz

We're through being cool

Not if fad turns to fap it isn't.

I'm sure VR is cool, but in no way does it replace real life. Virtual is virtual, and real is real.

image (resized).png

Simulation will become better and better, getting closer and closer to the real thing.of course some things are easier to simulate than others: pinball, being a closed world under a glass, is not among the most difficult things for sure. It will take some more decades, and it will never be like the real thing. But when the gap will
Be enough small, virtual will kill the real thing. Of course somebody will still own, play and fix real
Machines. Like somebody these days still travel with horses, just for fun.
Anyway, I think it will take some decades,so in the meanwhile - with existing quite good but not "perfect" simulations - the real things will still rule.
Btw, when technology will be so evolved after many decades, not phisical pinball only will become a thing of the past. Many more important aspects of life will be involved, and probably homo sapiens himself will technologically evolve into something else, togheter with social structures, economics, politics, etc.
In conclusion: i think we will enjoy phisical
Pinball for long time. Prices will not change dramatically, too.
Note: those thoeries on technological evolution, exponential growth, singularity, etc.dates back decades ago. Kurzweil popularized them very successfully. Musk is only reporting them, he certainly did not createany of them.

hopefully the cpu can keep up with the system so it doesn't crash

No tech advance will make simulations replace reality. Musk and Kurzweil are simply trans-humanists who see our fleshy masses as an impediment to their desires for cyborg and computer god-hood. They are eugenicist Luciferians at heart and see this as an argument for institutionalized human sacrifice. I know this sounds crazy, but there is something about these elitists that makes them hate humanity as we know it.

I am following the transhumanist movement for over a decade. I do not think they hate humanity at all. They love it, but look forward improving it. I personally think life (especially if you play pinball is wonderful, as well as all humans. But it saddens me that I will be able to play pinball for only few more decades. I am up for upgrading to few more decades of lifespan (just to mention one of the transhumanist goals). At the same time I am well aware of the risks involved. I am not sure I can call myself a transhumanist, but I am for sure an Humanist. So I believe the goal is to improve the human comditions but leaving the highest human values intact. And yes, we often learn whats good and right from limitations, from scarcity. So, although initially great, I believe transhumans could become monsters of egoism living in abundance. And that could lead to distruction. Its the same as learning to live being very rich: you can deal with it, but it takes a lot of discipline. Look how many Hollywood stars, abundant in money, sex, power, etc, ended up.

Real anything is better than a fake or virtual alternative. That's a no brainer. There clearly is no comparison but both are important to keep interest alive.

Really? I wonder if you could show a person from 1916 a smartphone. Would they think you are Lucifer? or maybe they would burn you at the stake for being able to click on buttons that would make words appear on some glowing piece of glass and instantly send it around the world to any one who wants to read it. I know I'd be the first one with the pitch fork

"Phonegument" - just as invalid as a Cargument.....LOL

Me and my dad used to go to Blockbuster every weekend. It was a ritual. That is where you found new movies. It really seem that that would be the way things were forever. But little did we know that one day Netflix would offer a service that would be cheaper, offer more varity, and a higher resolution without ever leaving the house.

These things went out every time. Pinball is getting crazy expensive. Coupled with an interest in the hobby. Stern can keep selling games for an ever-increasing price ,to a few buyers. But what happens when people realize they can have just as much fun for less money , and more variety, and many more options as far as gameplay and graphics.

Blockbustument

a real pin is way more fun than a video game. end of story. out of my 30+ pins, there are no video game pins. the real question comes down to whether or not you want to play a real pin, or a video game. it isnt the same, sure you can get more pins on the video crap, but it will never be the same as a real table.

I think the key there is that you are able to own 30+ pins, while most people who play Pinball Arcade and put coins in on location (ie, the youth market, who will keep pinball going) will either never be able to own pins or won't be able to for years. Nobody thinks virtual pinball is a decent replacement for the real thing but for most it's either that or nothing. I'll definitely say that I'd rather play a virtual pin on my laptop than on a virtual cab, which always looks cheap and flat.

Since I don't feel like being moderated.
NO.

I think people are underestimating the potential of VR. For instance, as someone previously mentioned, augmented reality pinball would be awesome. It might definitely "kill" modern pinball in the sense that SS "killed" EM and DMD "killed" SS. Imagine a realistic Smaug hologram popping up on the playfield of The Hobbit and breathing fire. That kind of stuff.

I attended an Arcade expo in Guangzhou a week ago along with many industry players (Gary Stern was also there).

There was an entire (very large) pavilion devoted to all things "VR" and probably about 100, possibly more, companies with large displays.

Punters were standing around everywhere with "VR goggles" on, looking to the outside world like wankers!

The interest in this VR area by visitors (including myself) compared to the rest of the show was so small it surprised me. I didn't even bother to take a single picture of the displays as there was "nothing to see".

VR will be a very difficult sell, my feelings on the day were simple - "This is another FAD!"

This fad cannot and will not replace real, mechanical pinball no matter how good it is now, or how good it might become - it is just silly!

I agree that VR pinball won't be a replacement for real pinball, but VR/AR doesn't seem like a fad. Maybe a stepping stone to better tech, but not a fad.

VR for PS4 launches Oct 5th.

MSFT has been pouring money and time into the HoloLens.

I don't think VR is a fad at all. What else can losers do if they can't land a real woman?