I am not really sure if many are just not paying attention but ove the past 12 months I have seen a dramatic shift in pinball prices in the following ways:
1. NIB prices are tanking. Selling for 1000-1500 less in 9-12 months. There is again a cost to play brand new. This is further evidenced by the lack of pump and dumpers we saw just back with games like METLE. Remember when guys like stretch and Teekee were saying every new LE was the best ever and then flipping NIB for 500-1000 more than they got them...
2. High end super nice and restored games are a seperate market and depending on the title and the name associated with it they seem to have palteaued and maybe a little dip
3. The entry level market is still growing as there are more people coming into pinball collecting every day. However, these people are like all of us and they have a $$$ amount they are looking to spend to get in. That seems to always be around 2-3k. A few years ago is was good 90s DMDs that were traditionally called B listers which sold in this range. Now it is the C listers and many have got on the Sys 11 experience. Others are finally opening their eyes to some great gottliebs. EVen more are actually guying an EM or 2.
To me it seems apparent that the top end finally hit a ceiling which is 8k. We now have TONS of new great games coming out in the next 6-12 months. Collectability IS an important factor and there are only a few new game makers that are actually filling this niche for the collector.
SternLEs are no longer convincing people they are something special with high edition size.
JJP has not made a limited edition beside the rescue edition.
Stern has made it clear that all vault editions are on the table.
PPS has tried to further kill the secondary by eluding to them making every damn DMD that exists
The only collectability is current the botique games that are limited to a smaller edition size, but people are understandably a bit hesitant to buy into an unknown.
Things will continue to shift, but prices across the board have stabalized. That is obvious.
I predict that NIB sales will slow for the big manufacturers and prices will come down on NIB.
JJP will inevitably become more efficient over time and Stern has plenty of room to decrease MSRP.
The amount of sales will likely have an impact at some point as the pedulum shufts and they will need to make some changes. I would guess they will continue to bring back down the LE edition size to try and recapture some of the colelctor market (unfortunately we all know Stern no longer makes anything collectable since the vault is open).
I am hoping we will continue to see innovation and I think this will liekly come from smaller startups which combined ARE having an impact on Stern and JJP sales.