Will prices ever go back down?

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#151 9 years ago

ROB

Mojosan

Pinside member

Bryn Athyn, PA

12y 71,900 622 23 23 4

>>>>
To me it seems apparent that the top end finally hit a ceiling which is 8k. We now have TONS of new great games coming out in the next 6-12 months.
>>>>

A buddy of mine with a top notch collection and I have been in agreement with this since STLE came out. I think $8k for NIB is somewhat of a top end for a while. And I think we're going to see very good condition classic B/W games topping out here as well.

I also think that if prices move down somewhat on NIB that MSRP will remain the same and the prices will be lowered to the distributor. I don't think Stern or JJP want to move off that MSRP.

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#152 9 years ago

DAV

wayout440

Pinside member

Berea, OH

11y 113K 11,267 3 12

Quoted from tl54hill:
Your thoughts are valid, and I would add the following:
1. People got bored with pinball in the past, that is why we do not have arcades in every mall and shopping center anymore. Games like TZ, TAF, AFM, MM could not keep the arcade doors open. The novelty wears off...is pinball innovating in significant enough ways to avoid this? I think JJP is the best thing that could have happened to pinball by driving innovation, but can he keep it up and keep moving forward? Stern is the industry standard, and while I LOVE a few of the newer machines, a lot of them look very much alike to me. Very similar playfields, layouts, ramps, etc. I am not sure how that bodes for the industry going forward.
2. When I have people over to play that are new to pinball, the 90's dmd machines look a lot like the 2000's and 2010's. Two flippers, brightly colored playfield, metal and plastic ramps, vuks, pop bumpers, a toy on the playfield, multiball, callouts, and dmd animations. The pinball innovations in recent years seem like a big deal to us, but I do not think they are game changers for non-enthusiasts. Take a pinball noob and have them play a nice Mustang and Corvette and see if they can even guess how much newer one is than the other.
3. A lot of us got into pinball because of the cheap prices following the collapse of arcades. For me, getting a JP or a T2 for $1000 was good times, and since they had depreciated so much value, reasonably safe. It is a lot harder to get new people in at $3000-$5000 per machine...heck, $1000 is a lot of money for most people. I don't think there are large numbers of untapped people willing to throw tens of thousands of dollars into a personal hobby like pinball. I know a lot of people that live paycheck to paycheck.
Sometimes I feel like I am the only non-millionaire on Pinside, but I know I am part of the overwhelming majority of people who are influenced by price point. I have hedged my bets on the industry and adjusted my collection accordingly. For me, it is not about getting out, but being truly comfortable with my exposure to loss.

#1 - people didn't get bored with it...people found the alternative of the new electronic age: the video game. At the time in arcades, and then shortly after moved to the home console platform. That's why we no longer have pinball in the wild everywhere.
#2 When I have pinball playing guests in the home, they have no clue that there are things to pay attention to on a DMD. They thought it was just there to display scores like on the 80s games.
#3 For the most part agree, I am lucky to have a handful of the less expensive 80s pins. You're not the only non-millionaire on pinside for certain. Pinball can be enjoyed in it's less expensive form, you are just less likely to be getting A list titles in your home game room.

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1

#153 9 years ago

DAV

wayout440

Pinside member

Berea, OH

11y 113K 11,267 3 12

Quoted from Mojosan:
To me it seems apparent that the top end finally hit a ceiling which is 8k. We now have TONS of new great games coming out in the next 6-12 months.
A buddy of mine with a top notch collection and I have been in agreement with this since STLE came out. I think $8k for NIB is somewhat of a top end for a while. And I think we're going to see very good condition classic B/W games topping out here as well.
I also think that if prices move down somewhat on NIB that MSRP will remain the same and the prices will be lowered to the distributor. I don't think Stern or JJP want to move off that MSRP.

^ exactly my point earlier ^
Pinheads into the new, latest and greatest feel that prices are moving down or predict they are going to move down. Folks like me with older pre- 90's games see them going up, and probably also anticipate the older games continuing to go up in price.

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2

#154 9 years ago

SAZ

Baiter

Pinside member

Westminster, CO

12y 69,400 3,910 13 15

Quoted from wayout440:
^ exactly my point earlier ^
Pinheads into the new, latest and greatest feel that prices are moving down or predict they are going to move down. Folks like me with older pre- 90's games see them going up, and probably also anticipate the older games continuing to go up in price.

This may be the most important point of the entire thread. People new to the hobby in the past few years, especially those focusing on NIB and higher-end games, have been seeing declines in the aftermarket, whereas older games have been seeing steady prices, if not slight increases. It's a market equalization that was bound to happen.

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#155 9 years ago

???

Atomicboy

Inactive member

12y 81,150 7,318

Good point, but there is a fulcrum point I think where too old has started to go down. There seems to be less demand for example for a lot of the sought after early SS machines, not a ton, but I recall a few years back many of those appeared more sought after than today.

I’m not sure if that will happen with the 90s, as this really was the most coveted age of machines, most of them filling the top 30, 40 and onward, with some new ones mixed in. If the same quality as wpc’s were continuously made since the fall of Williams, it would have happened, but since that as a whole has not happened, the 90s with likely be the standard all else is up against for many more years, and as such, prices will continue to rise for these machines as a whole, which is what we are seing.

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#156 9 years ago

PEZ

pezpunk

iScored

Bristow, VA

11y 103K 7,008 4 20

Quoted from Atomicboy:
Good point, but there is a fulcrum point I think where too old has started to go down. There seems to be less demand for example for a lot of the sought after early SS machines, not a ton, but I recall a few years back many of those appeared more sought after than today.

really? just judging by pinside for sale threads, it seems like solid state games are rising faster than any other segment to me. i think a lot of people who previously really wanted only DMD titles are discovering what gameplay gems some 80s titles are.