Levi - not crazy - you’re right. It’s picking up a little bit with the younger crowd.

MM, MB,AFM are all cheaper today than they were 5 years ago.

Prices will come down when they announce a pin remake. Or if a game falls out of favor, ex EM fireball or any wood rail is cheaper today than 10 years ago.

If you think your average $2.5k cheaper DMD pin will come down in the next year? I think this is unlikely from what I see

I’ve personally seen it first hand. Every time my kid has his hockey buddies over they are glued to the pins. They’re 14-15 yr olds. Forget the Xbox, pool table, dart board etc. It’s nonstop pinball and I also get bitched out by some of the dads cause their kid doesn’t stop begging for them to get their own pins. It’s actually quite satisfying seeing the interest.

I’m sure a lot of the collectors on here have their own kids that take an interest and create excitement with their school friends. I don’t see the hobby dying IMO.

Pinball machines won't be much sought after after the power grid collapses.

I just said we have seen an increase in the 20 something crowd and we see more in bars. I also know the younger generation is used to having information and new things to play with at an insane rate. They are not likely to make commitments to expensive things. They like everything via a subscriptions give me something new and different on a regular basis. That massive shift in consumers is happening at an alarming rate. I believe pinball is not changing fast enough to insure a long term future. I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right. Its just a different perspective. I'm in the video game industry and saw it struggle and go through a massive downturn because we as industry could not transition fast enough. Video games move at the speed of light compared to pinball and we damn near lost that entire demographic.

My minor quibble with this is that the 20-somethings of today might love playing pinball but do they love it as the flavor of the month? Will they still love it in 5 years? Will the millenials rent larger apartments or *gasp* buy houses that can fit pinball machines?
The future of pinball does look bright but the future of the pinball market is still quite uncertain.

Because people try and offload during recessions, and people in the hobby cant buy either, people get desperate, prices go down. No need to get dramatic. The previous recession prices were already low AF, the hobby is booming now.... thats the difference.

C'mon dude, don't be a downer. There's still generators, solar and other ways to produce energy - so play on!!

EDIT: damn, beat me by two seconds.

Yep, I see coal fired pinball as the next evolutionary step.

I'm fitting a coal chute to my whitewater as we speak!

Prices will come down when you fools stop paying these ridiculous prices. LOL

I am so glad there are economic geniuses on this site to predict recessions. Been the same old song and dance on this site for years.

Arcade games and pinball are a weird separate universe to me.

I mean they seem timeless. The newer crowd will desire a dead pool. Nib today, in ten years? Obtainable still. Hopefully.

This market is unlike other markets though. Resale is much higher than other products. It seems.

For me it passion not profit, but I'd like a little of both.

Economics are always at play. Supply and demand dictate all.

The thing you have working against your theory is that even though there can be peaks and valleys, everything on a longer scale tends to trend upwards.

The second problem you have is that pinballs are what most would consider a "rich man's hobby." We aren't talking about 2 dollar toy cars here...these machines cost thousands. Many people that collect are financially secure middle-aged or older men who have a large discretionary income. Recessions don't affect them nearly as much.

Your best bet is hoping for a post-apocalyptic mad max style meltdown...or just pony up the money and try to find good deals.

not in my state, houses are selling in days and they can't build new ones fast enough to fill needs. middle TN is booming and there is no end in site. do a search for recession on this site. Tons of threads saying the same things over and over and over for the last 6 years. I think folks are just paranoid with 100k+ worth of machines in there gameroom.

I bought my STTNG early 2000s for 400, and was offered a Striker Xtreme for another 100, the distributor had them sleeping in his warehouse and was trying to get rid of them to whomever would take them. The same happened with old scooters (my other hobby), people opening their garage doors and willing to get rid of these useless sturdy pieces of metal.

Then some marketing genius introduced the word "vintage" and it all shifted from no one cares to must have.

We are in 2 very different worlds. Houses on my street are sold literally 2 days after the sign goes up.

Ditto

God it's so true. So many things gained value and entire new "collectible markets" took off in the last 19 years. Not just pinball.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards have fallen out of favor and been labeled old collectibles no one wants any more but they've helped fuel the current vintage pinball, arcade, video game, and vinyl obsessions that today's 40-somethings are buying.

But not you... you paid off your mortgage... Right?

That's OK let it collapse I'm off the grid solar!

Man these games are gonna tank when that 2 mile asteroid hits California! I wont be able to get pennies on the dollar for my collection. I better dump em now!!

a recession is always possible. I’ve listened to people on YouTube say that since 2013. In all seriousness many people are living on plastic. It’s only a matter of time, it’s just when. I follow the auto industry very closely, if that fails then watch out. 7.5 million Americans are currently three payments behind on auto loans, higher than pre 2008 recession levels. March sales are down 4%. I don’t think prices on pins will drop until the later portion of a slow down. Hell I know a distributor almost went belly up in 2009 and he’s a big distributor.

Basic supply and demand. Games were cheap because of the massive excess supply.

Lets face it.... most of the warehouses are raided, arcades are cleaned out, auctions have been auctioned, the re-imports are re-imported, and the wrecks have been parted out. There are some stashes out there, but only a fraction of what it used to be. The glut of games clogging up storage space is done and gone, and the retail guys have bigger resources to find what little is left. That and all the NOS parts piles are drying up too.

One side: "Fake news!"

The other side: "This time it will be different!"

I am really happy there are so many more games to play.

PS: Just happy Pinball is doing better and having more hobbyists every day.
It's not just pinball, it's more more pinball!

Please don’t accuse me of ever saying anything as moronic as “fake news.”

Ok, so you must think this time it is different?

Lmao. I just spit out coffee on that one. Thanks!

Nah I just like reading old posts where people say “you’d have to be INSANE to pay $2900 for an Indiana Jones!”

Must be the Stern IJ!

A little recession supposedly coming over the next two years, then the big boy (possibly worst ever) coming 2029/2030. Save now and capitalize then.

If you are looking for a deal (or prices of yesteryear), check out the projects forum. There have been some crazy-good deals in there lately...including FREE pins.

OK got it! I wrote a message to myself and put it on the wall. I should start selling now!

Work hard, save, spend wisely and play lots of pinball and you will be just fine

I did notice last time I played at my local pinball place two weeks ago that I was actually the old guy in the room at 48, everyone else was younger which was pretty cool. Likewise at the Pinball Museum in Banning it was all ages and genders in there, also pretty cool. I figure it's biggest barrier to entry is that it can be really intimidating to new folk, but once you get past that you can get quickly hooked.

It's not a recession; it's supply and demand. Pinball died in the 90s because of crazy supply and little demand. We are now heading toward crazy supply, with Stern, jjp, spooky, Chicago, American and deep root. Supply is crushing demand, and this can be seen online. When I started only 5 years ago, I had to babysit the web all day to even have a chance at buying a decent pin. Now, there are 25 for sale, some of them hot titles. Prices are still high, but I see the writing on the wall. Supply is about to jump, and by the laws of economics, prices will come down. Rarity will still help with older games.

Yeah, well how are you going to play pinball when gravity fails??? All those balls just floating around inside your game!

But before that we’ll all have time to play as much pinball as we want, since robots will have our jobs. Vice showed a legal robot that was faster and more accurate at revising contracts than the lawyer.

I’m sure the people with jukebox and model train collections would have had this same conversation at some point.

Jukes have basically been replaced by newer, more compact technology. I don't think I've seen an actual vintage-style jukebox operating in the wild in at least 10 years. However, I know of one pizza place that has existed for over 30 years and had older, small, wall mounted jukeboxes in each booth.

Trains don't seem to have caught on with the younger generation all that much. Although, I see model train conventions advertised around here about twice a year, so there must still be enough interest to do that.

i for 1 hope there isnt a recession coming a lot people suffer about the only buisness that seems to do are auctioneers remnants of peoples lives that the scavengers come in to pick over i know for every boom there is a bust but too many people dont dont enjoy the benifits of a boom

And I notice the kids aren’t just haphazardly knocking the ball around. They are genuinely trying to learn the rules and perfect their game. It’s fun watching these kids playing four player games and the trash talking that occurs. The competition gets heated up real fast at my house and it’s awesome

One thing is for sure:

Pricing threads remain the cheapest pop on Pinside.

Want a thread that will go at least 2 pages?

BOOM! Just make a "bubble burst" thread. I guess that's why someone does it every three weeks?

Every time I see a pricing thread or when someone asks "do you think the bubble is bursting" or "have we reached the saturation point"

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Things seem to be at least slowing down. The pace of new games lately has had multiple effects.

Prices on new sterns tend to drop rather quickly on second hand market ( 6-8 weeks tops) to 5k/7k/8k for pro/prem/LE as each new title pops and the interest fades.

Prices on early 2000's sterns has definitely plateaued or started to drop. The 24's, Wheel of Fortunes, WPT, Avatar, etc are all sitting longer and longer if they aren't priced well be low 4k.

BW games seem to still be holding well.

Second hand JJP are still trending down. Hobbits for days at 6500-6900, WOZ for days at 6750-7500. Dialed In dropping to 7k-7500 for LE.

These are among the worst, least wanted Stern games ever made, and the fact that were ever going for anywhere near NIB was a freaking miracle!!

And they still go for Wayyyyy more than they should.

Things aren't fn "slowing down" by any significant measure.

I'd have to agree on this, and the 'trickle down' has really been kicking in lately too. System 11's have been climbing for quite some time, and high-end system 11's are now coming in above low-end WPC pricing on a regular basis. The good system 11 games are now solidly above $2k. The decent system 6's, 7's, 9's have been bumping up a lot lately too, across the board for classic Bally too. A number of System 80 Gottlieb's are starting to see the same trend, but it's much more selective there still.

No they won’t. On newer games the base model might drop but so will features. This is to sell games for actual operators. New high end games..... I foresee a lot more trading going on.

Used games - prices won’t drop significantly but quality of games will increase - people will put more effort into fixing them up.

You’ll see pins in rough shape devalued. That’s how it should be though. Remember when blown out MM’s we’re going for 8k. Ya that was stupid. That’s the bubble that will or has already burst.

This market is steadily becoming over saturated. Crazy high prices especially for NIB games are unsustainable. The 3 machines in my collection are here to stay, and I'm prepared for a downturn if/when it happens.

Pinball is not everywhere. In KC we have a lot of pinball, but that is supported by collectors. Some of them do it out of passion or figured out a way to support their hobby. No one is making a living off it. A good part of the country does not have a heavy amount of places to play outside of collections. So compared to the 90's when you couldn't hit up a pizza joint without there being a couple of games location play is minimal still. This is going to hurt the number of people looking to take up the torch in the coming years.

End of the day games are too maintenance intensive to maintain for ops to make a real go at them. They do it as a favor to a well earning location. They do it because they are hobbyist that want to spread their passion. There are only so many of those instances though and its not going to change unless someone finds a way to massively reduce maintenance and increase reliability.