He shouldn't stick to his plan because we won't come out of this until Q2 of 2023?? That's not a long time. Even if his savings timeline is something as short as 5 years, not continuing with his plan would be foolish because there is an additional down year expected. That's a tiny blip on his savings roadmap. Trying to have more cash on hand for a year might be good advice for a trader, but doesn't really make sense if you are saving for 5, 10, 15, 20+ years down the road. That's how some people missed the beginning of the biggest bull market ever in history after 2008. The real concern is if this takes decade+ to recover, like Japan in the 90s-00s after their 80s boom. Coming out of this in 2023 is very optimistic for somebody getting into a recession definition debate.

Q2 23 is very optimistic. It takes around 16 months without federal reserve hikes for things to mostly recover. Many people are also about to get their property taxes which will all be inflated based on last year's housing market which has already collapsed.

I might still buy a NIB game if there is something I like under 9K but with the new prices that is not likely, and they are just not worth the current asking price. I believe the pinball manufacturers have screwed themselves trying to price out the secondary market. They chose a very volatile time to go all in and get as much as they think they can. After Bond who is paying 13K for an LE? I wanted that game and passed on my LE spot because of the price increase. I can afford it, but I can't justify it.

I work in construction, land development, and planning. Recessions are slow lumbering giants in this industry, the start lags behind other sectors and then much slower to recover later.

My anecdotal experience is seeing a night and day difference in terms of fewer new projects being funded, reduced scopes, more phasing, cancelling concept work, and shrugging of shoulders when it comes to trying to make a cost estimate valid for longer than a couple months

It’s still basically impossible to get reliable unskilled laborers in the numbers my sub contractors need. That’s been an issue all year. But for the skilled labor? We went from having some positions in engineering, planning, and IT opened for months with only mild interest to getting the pick of the litter. (And I’m reading these resumes of career professionals who are getting laid off or see the writing on the wall at their firm…)

2023 is going to be rough

I’ve been in this hobby (and business for a time) off and on for 20 years and never heard of this site. Maybe it’s my selective attention span for not knowing of them but if we know they gouge how can we also say they are a leading indicator of the hobby?

Prices aside that’s like driving by a car dealership trying to get a pulse on the car collector/ hobbies.

pinballs.com is "Automated Services." (EDIT: was posted 2 seconds after Seenev above )

Wacky Fact: There's no hard and fast definition of a recession (anymore). It used to be two consecutive quarters of negative growth, now it's sort of a black magic touchy feely metric. I'm not a fan of this. I'll take the standard (until a few years ago) definition that you're referring to any day. In the end though, it's a just a label.

This. According to the old definitions we hit recession in like June or July.

Yeah, Q1 and Q2 were down so the end of June marked the start of the recession. Having said that, oddly the numbers will keep getting revised. There have been recessions that have ended before they were even officially declared recessions.

All logic is out the window! Who knows when people will feel the affect. The government pumping money into the economy is such a dangerous concept plus incentivizing people to not pay back loans throws all we logically know out the window. I thought in 2019 things were looking unstable. I have no idea what to think now. I’m going to keep my head down and keep working!

I operate games so I’ll continue to buy however ROI in the last few years are getting worse and worse. If price increases continue and distributors keep increasing their margins it will absolutely slow down my growth.

The National Bureau of Economic Research. Instead of using easily measured metrics in a specific timeframe, they moved to:
"a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months"

as measured by

"depth, diffusion, and duration"

That's some fuzzy definition there. I'd love to know what prompted the change. Again, it's just a label but it'd be nice to know what the hell it specifically means.

https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions

Hopefully you keep your job and the market doesn't crash,or someone might be picking up a couple of your games.

:S

A report last week noted water levels of the Mississippi river were so low the last few years that its affecting Cargo ports in Louisiana. Billions of dollars of goods come through those ports and without enough water its grounding the ships.

https://www.fox8live.com/2022/10/06/major-port-coast-guard-closely-monitor-mississippi-river-levels/

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/24/weather/weather-rain-mississippi-river-severe-storms-wxn/index.html

I'm never buying a NIB pin again. Ever. But it's not because of any recession. Which we are 100% in at the moment.

I saw the opportunity to jump ship this spring from my private sector employer and moved to a public sector one. Locking in a government job was the right move for me.

The FED needs to pump the Federal effective rate to 5% immediately. The sooner we can cool demand and get inflation under control, the better.

Are you saying we are in for some kind of a bubble-bursting?

I consider those bad examples. They aren’t great games. So the secondary market was bound to fall.

It already is falling. Even though Stern has been behind, they’ve been making games. They are getting to the point where everyone that wanted one has one. Demand always drops when you hit that saturation point.

I agree with this. I was finally able to lock down a gz prem and distributor wanted 9k. I've never paid full MSRP for a Stern machine so I bailed. They made tons and once the panic selling starts, I'll be there to scoop one up for 7500. All modded out.

My favorite part of every bubble burst thread is where folks start to indulge their lustful fantasies about what they’ll do when the market and economy totally collapses yet we are all still buying pinball machines and yet they are somehow all suddenly dirt cheap.

“And I’m gonna buy an Addams, fully restored and tastefully modded, for $4,000! And I’m gonna get a sweet GZ LE for $7,000…oh it’s gonna be so sweet!”

You gotta dream big, I get it!

I know there's a current narrative floating around about who those "powers that be" are. For what it's worth, the NBER changed the definition mid-2020.

You're making it sound like pin prices DO go down at some point, but I know that's wrong because everyone says so

I'm not going to be able to buy that Magic Girl now

OK so the economy has totally collapsed, is in the toilet, and we are in the midst of a paradigm-shifting recession that is destroying our country as we speak.

When do the pinball prices drop? I'm eager to scoop 'em up!

Wow it's been downright pleasant for several weeks. It's too bad we have to get back to "normal." Well it was nice while it lasted, but some people just can't let their lame-ass personal crusades die. Wait, I need to stick with my trademark style guide.

Final shouting single sentence paragraph with an exclamation mark!

Ha, time for a serouis post. If it happens it will be a slow process. More pins for sale than buyers and eventual people drop their prices. If it gets desperate people will sell for way less than they thought setting a new price for everyone else. Opposite of Banning.

Edit to add: Those hoping to pickup the good deals probably aren't buying due to other obligations.

You'll never know till the mystical powers that be wave their magic wands duh.

Screen Shot 2022-10-24 at 7.49.33 PM (resized).png

Once the “other Party” is the majority in Congress, the media will gleefully start calling it a “recession”. …ad nauseum.

People seem to think NIB games losing a little value is the market just imploding. I guess they were not around when this was pretty much the norm for all but a few games when released. There was a huge supply vs demand shortage leading up to and during covid and everyone went crazy and completely forgot about before then apparently.

What everyone needs to do is cash out their retirement plans right now when its low, take the huge early draw penalty, and invest it all into pinball toppers. Why buy games away, the toppers are where the fun is.

Well of course, like a lot of subjects, that is totally based on opinion. Someone else may think it is the greatest game ever made. Personally, I find it boring. It is a pretty game, but it lacks something in the substance department.

I do always try to account for the fact that I just don't like it. And I'm able to distinguish between games I like, vs great games. There are quite a few games I consider great that I just don't enjoy playing.

Sorry for the longwinded explanation. Don't want to ruffle any feathers.

Are we doing this?

Well, least we would stop putting lipstick on a pig saying the economy is "strong as hell" *goes back to licking ice cream and chomping on the cone*

Forum handle checks out...

The economy is not in the toilet (yet) and far from it. Two consecutive quarters of mildly negative growth with a 3.5% unemployment rate (which is pretty much considered full employment). We actually need a recession to tackle the real beast - inflation. Growth and low inflation is the optimal place to be and we have just had that for quite a stretch. The powers that be need to tackle inflation and that is going to hurt a few but help most.

Looming looming looming, keep that recession looming...looming looming looming...Pinside!!!

Historical trends would indicate a recession if the Phillies win the World Series.

So........go Astros?

20221027_075658.jpg

Bah, gonna be a red October for the Phillies!

BTW, we're already in a recession.

What's the Farmers Almanac say?

Are you kidding? My savings are looking healthier than ever! Keep rising me 'ol fella.