(Topic ID: 147970)

Will 8 New Pins Come Out 1st Half of 2016?

By kaneda

8 years ago


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  • Latest reply 8 years ago by vdojaq
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-4
#1 8 years ago

Hey guys...was just thinking about how titles normally trickle out slowly. But something crazy is about to happen. In Q1/Q2 2016, the market is going to be flooded with new in box pins available for sale. Here's what I'm counting will be revealed / released.

Alien
Rob Zombie
The Hobbit
The Big Lebowski
Spider-Man VE
Ghostbusters
GOT Premium
P3: Lexi Lightspeed

This is exciting but also very interesting. Collectors usually have a lot more space between pins, so what will this mean? Some may say this event will saturate the market causing all prices to decline. I could see this happening. Others may say the themes are drastically different and are targeting different buyers. Maybe? What is certain is nobody thought all of these titles would collide around the same time, but that's exactly what's going to happen. Personally I don't think there's room for all of these to survive / be successful.

In the end, it's going to be a heck of a 6 months. 2015 was such a let down year on so many levels and in 2016 we're going to be playing more NIB pinball than we've seen in the last 20 years, no? Awesome things to come!

-1
#14 8 years ago
Quoted from NPO:

Whoa whoa whoa.... . Let's not jump to crazy conclusions here.
Kaneda is Pinside's version of a stock market analyst: LOTS of discussion but not much in terms of "chips in".
And for those ready to play the victim or call foul, that's not meant to be an insult or back-handed compliment. It is what it is based on topic history as well as posts based on in-home purchases. He generates a LOT of discussion with minimal investment in hardware at home (based on what I've seen).

All because of one thing: room. And to be honest, it's saved me thousands. Otherwise I would have totally be all in on Magic Girl, RAZA, Predator and The Hobbit. Instead I put 30K into the Hellcat.

-1
#15 8 years ago
Quoted from NPO:

I do NOT see Alien, TBL, or TH coming out until winter 2016.
Wasn't TH supposed to come out in conjunction with the movies? When was the last one movie made...? (I know about the re-tooling of the PF after Expo's thrashing of the original design, wasn't THAT over a year ago now too?)
I am almost starting to think TBL is vaporware. I used to follow it back in 2014, and I can't remember the last time there was a SERIOUS update towards its production.
Alien I do have hope for since Heighway has a solid presence here, and the team gives fairly consistent updates "when it's time". With FTR under their belt and having enough footing for Bowen to do a tutorial on it, I see Alien coming, but it will have multiple delays; and I see it finally heading to homes around the turn of 2016 into 2017.
This whole "taking 2-4 years for a pinball machine to see fruition" routine is what will guarantee sales of GoT, SMVE, and GB.
Look how long it took MMR to come out, and that had a solid footing of details and drawings from 1997 on its side. What are we going on for some owners: 2.5 years now waiting for their games...?
Like it or not, Stern will continue to outsell everyone no matter the quality of the other games due to one polarizing factor: I can have it now rather than later.

Hobbit is on the assembly line. Yes they are test games, but I can't imagine we're looking at another 8 months now. But like you said, who knows. It's already years late.

I've said it many times before and you stated it too...Stern is the only real player in town. Spooky is the only boutique that's working. Gary is laughing all the way to the bank. Stern never posts on Pinside. Stern is driving quality down and price up. Yet they have something you can play within a month or two of reveal.

My prediction is this: When Ghostbusters is released, everyone is going to flock to it and it will be Stern's best selling pin in years. That theme alone hits the pinball demographic greater than anything. It's a movie we all universally love. Now I'm hoping and praying they don't fuck it up with the new case on it anywhere, but we'll see shortly. But if it has and LCD I can see people flooding JJP with requests for a refund.

Even though it's not shipping, Hobbit remains the most innovative pin coming. I'd say it's a toss up with Lebowski.

Dutch Pinball went from Hero to Zero in 2015. Nobody is impressed anymore by the tactic of luring buyers in with a seemingly finished product only to spend the next year rebuilding the whole thing and revealing you had no licensing rights to the stuff you sold people on. Why anyone still has their money locked up with Dutch is beyond me.

-1
#16 8 years ago
Quoted from anthony691:

How many of these are going to actually be meaningfully "available?"
Prediction: some of these pins will not ship at all in this time frame. Others probably will not ship to anyone who did not preorder.
At least one won't "available" in any conventional meaning of the word, but will probably ship.
If "available" means distributors have stock on hand, I'd bet on 3-4.

I predict people who order the Hobbit in 2016 will get it before some of the people who have waited years. Just like WOZ. This will happen. Jack wants new money over money he's already cashed in.

#18 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

Just because you haven't been paying attention doesn't give you the right to invent your own facts. There have been plenty of updates throughout 2015, including reasons for the delays. Prosecution samples were tested at the DPO & a new board had just been shown that solves issues they had with the samples. It will be shipping soon.

Agreed. TBL is not vaporware. Roger Sharpe wouldn't be on board if it were.

12
#20 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

You sure yap your flap a lot for someone who doesn't contribute anything financially to pinball. You have no stake yet you're constantly posting the same old shit-stirring stuff with this sense of entitlement and superiority. You know nothing about this industry or how it works. The fact that you even considered putting money in on Jpop and working for him speaks volumes - and you have the audacity to question how anyone else spends their money on pinball?
In regards to Dutch Pinball - perhaps you've forgotten about BOP 2.0 - a beautiful licensed product the changed an old game into a modern one more impressive than new Sterns. It shipped. It exists. I have it and play it a lot! You forget that people around the world have played the Lebowski Protos and Samples. What they've accomplished doesn't show you they're the real deal? WTF do you want them to do? You couldn't dream to accomplish what they have in the pinball world.

Why are you being so mean and nasty? Why are you personally attacking me? I started a thread and everyone is having a mature discussion. And I agreed with what you said and then you fly off the handle on me? What gives?

If you don't like me, fine. But then ignore me or don't engage in my discussions. Saying I know nothing about pinball isn't true. I've stated numerous times about how and when I engaged JPOP. It was in November of 2014. And if you recall, nobody knew it was vaporware then as he was promising a December reveal. I quickly learned at the same time as everyone else things were dire.

And I stand behind my statement that locking money into Dutch was inane. Why? Because what's the point? They are going to make as many TBL's as people order. It's not limited.

In the future, please do not personally insult people who are stating an opinion. It just makes you seem small and juvenile.

#23 8 years ago

Pinside. 5% facts and 95% speculation.

I'm confident all of the 7 pins I mentioned will ship within the next 6 months.

-1
#25 8 years ago

I have faith in Heighway's ability to go from reveal to production in a shorter window than most. They have the money / production facility set up to do so. Only question now is how far are we to an Alien reveal. I'd rather them wait and do a Stern like reveal. Show it right before it ships. With it being a licensed pin, they won't be able to make any changes quickly. I'm confident Andrew / Aurich will get this baby right the first time.

Dutch is the real question mark for me and I think most of us. What's taking so long now? Very impressed by what they showed at Expo. They've re-engineered the game from the guts up. And it looks impressive. But months and months are going by. What's left to do?

#27 8 years ago
Quoted from vdojaq:

I have to agree that GB is going to be a hit. From what I understand there are some features on this game that are quite unusual for Stern. For me, it is the ONLY one of the 7 mentioned I have any interest in.
On top of that, I will NEVER purchase another LE from Stern. Get all the bang for your buck on a Premium and mod it to your liking.

Do you have GB feature specifics you're hearing?

#32 8 years ago
Quoted from GravitaR:

The IGNORE button is your best friend, use it.
Claims he has no room for pinballs so wont buy one, then buys/leases a Hellcat which - he don't have room for so parks it somewhere else. What a hypocrite!

HAHA. I am 15 minutes from my Hellcat.

-3
#42 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

You personally attacked the hundreds of
people who have pre-paid for
The Big Lebowski with nothing to back up your venom against Dutch other than your own impatience.

It's not inane or insane. Again - they've proven they can make, license and ship a killer pinball product. BOP 2.0. They've shown the Protos and Samples. Roger Shrpe is behind it. It's not insane. Jpop was always insane. TBL has always been real. I paid for it a while ago and got
It at a lower price with rug and chrome included. Why would I pull my money out? I'd get it later, with less stuff and for more money. That would be insane at this point. It's right around the corner.

Project much? I'm just calling you out on your narcissism and know-nothing bravado. Words have meaning. Opinions without facts to back them up are nothing
but bluster, and in this case an insult. You fired the first shot.

Happy you're happy with your TBL deposit. My opinion is locking money up on a machine for years isn't worth it. Save money? How much in total are you going to save on that Lebowski?

Why are you so upset? Seriously?

#43 8 years ago
Quoted from jlm33:

About a year ago (October 2014) I made a list of the pins that were to be released in 2015 for a French forum. http://www.flipjuke.fr/embarras-choix-petit-apercu-des-projets-cours-t107732.html (sorry, that's in French)
I think I counted ≈ 20 different pins.
Among them were Predator, Magic Girl, RAZA, P3, TH, TBL, Gremlins (lol), Nemo, Wooly, Spooky #2, Heighway #2, Timeshock, Circus Maximus, Thunderbirds...
You all know where these projects stand. The reality is what?
- 4 Stern models (Wrestlemania*, Kiss, GoT, WNBJM)
- Full Throttle
- AMH approaching completion
- Wooly (4 produced)
- Nemo (at least 1 produced)
- Am I forgetting something?
* announced in 2014 but produced in 2015 ?

Forgetting Medieval Madness.

#51 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

I want a Lebowski pinball. Why does it matter to you whether I buy it now or later? I like Dutch and I love BOP 2.0. I'm saving $1000 and get extra shit and the game sooner.

Why are you insulting those who bought a Lebowski? Seriously?

So Lebwoski is $1,000 more than the pre-order price. Good deal. Hope you get it soon. I've always loved TBL since I played it at Modern like a year ago. Be positive bro. This is just pinball. You shouldn't get so wound up by any post. For real.

#52 8 years ago
Quoted from beelzeboob:

Your apartment fits exactly one pin. Who you kidding?

I'm working on another location to put games. We'll see

#70 8 years ago
Quoted from o-din:

To each his own, but if I had the cash to burn on an expensive car that I had to park 15 minutes from where I live, I would bail on cramped apartment living and get the hell out of Dodge.

I found the sweetest parking spot for $200 a month. In NYC, being 15 minutes away from something is a blessing, not a curse. And I don't live in a cramped apartment. Oh and Parking on my block is $600 a month. That's a Stern LE a year just to have an attendant f*** your car up.

Also, I'm a 15 minute walk to work. Which I love. Many of my co-workers spend hours each day commuting. I'm home in 15 minutes flipping away. City living isn't for everyone but I love it. And I bought my place years ago so my cost of living is nothing. Able to save around 8K a month. No way I would trade that to go live in the suburbs and spend a ton on taxes for a school system I wouldn't even be using. No thanks.

#73 8 years ago
Quoted from Expletive:

Speaking of the Twilight Zone, what's with all the posts saying that Pat Lawlors pin for JJP will be available this year? Are you people insane?

JJP faithful are funny, aren't they? How anyone can believe a JJP ship date is beyond me. Pat's game will ship with no pre-order model. I hope so but I'll believe it when I see it. Super curious to see how an original theme plays amidst a world of Star Wars, Ghostbusters, Alien, etc. Gonna be a tough sell unless it brings some epic innovation / fun to the table. We shall see.

#74 8 years ago

Added P3 into the mix. They said they are in the final stretches. Hard to tell in the pinball world what "final stretches" equates to. But I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say within 6 months.

I had fun playing P3 at Expo but have to say the art on Lexi Lightspeed was a real issue for me. That thing is not cheap and I think they really should have invested in a licensed theme to get people into the platform.

#79 8 years ago
Quoted from jawjaw:

You can throw in the next remake which is supposed to be ready and announced at tpf. I don't know if 2016 will be any different than 2015. Stern will produce a handfull of hit and miss pins. Competition will struggle with delays and just keeping up with preorders if anything is produced. I don't know if any are a direct threat to Stern yet. How many guys preordered, got sick of waiting, cancelled, and bought a Stern?

A remake announced vs when it will ship are not the same thing. I'm counting physical machines that will be going into homes in the first half of 2016. Personally I think revealing a pin months/years ahead of availability isn't the way to go anymore unless you need pre-order money to survive / get started.

#80 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

The art kills it...people are buying a game, not a platform. Even though he P3 is an amazing platform, it's going to be a tough sell as a "console with a pack-in game" when no one knows what future "software" will be.

Yeah it's kind of strange when you think about it. They went super innovative with the technology / platform, yet wrapped it in an unappealing package. Something about that art just makes me NOT want to own it, ever.

#81 8 years ago
Quoted from AJB4:

Any idea what the next PPS / CGC remake will be? What does the rumor mill say?

Rumors are Attack from Mars and Cactus Canyon.

#82 8 years ago
Quoted from shimoda:

Don't see Pinball Circus coming - as a production model - for at least a couple years. Why? The main prototype is pretty much done and has lots of reworking to be done, serious reworking. Then the first 12 prototypes. Then the work to see if production is feasible. It's a really cool game, cool idea, and lots of neat stuff going on, but I still think it will have limited release.
On a separate note related to this thread - the difference between a personal attack and not one is attacking just one person. Kaneda saying he doesn't understand so many people putting money into DP right now isn't personally attacking each and every one of those people. Yes, DP did get BOP 2.0 licensed and done. But to say that putting together a mod kit with a few components and a really sweet software upgrade that completely changes an existing table is practically in a different universe from building a game from the ground up then getting it to full production. That would be like saying that a mod shop could just start producing automobiles because they do great restores/mods.
I'm betting closer to 5 new pins and also betting there will be slow downs. Even 5 new games will be pressing an already seemingly tight market. Machines just don't 'seem' to be moving as quickly as they were 1 or 2 years ago.

That's sort of the point I'm making. Pinball bas been a pretty sound investment over the past few years. But how will that change when so many NIB titles hit the marketplace? It's not really the volume per se that's going to hurt prices, it's the innovation. When LCD/HD screens get integrated properly, I really think DMD games are going to look as old now as EM games look to us. I'm not positive about this, but I feel like a big step forward is going to happen soon that just makes all DMD's lose value.

#101 8 years ago
Quoted from c508:

Gratz on the short walking commute! I have one as well and bike whenever I can (weather permitting)!
But what's the point of having a HELLCAT (which I would love to own but don't have the garage space (or $$$)) if you are in the middle of the city?
Are you even able to get out of third gear?
I've only been to NYC about a 4 times in the past 10 years but each time the traffic seems worse. Living in Seattle or Chicago practically the only thing my car was good for was Costco and Trader Joe's runs.

I don't drive it to get to places in NYC, I drive it OUT of the city. The roads leading out of the city are amazing and I have friends and family all over NY, Connecticut, Massachusetts. Also, if I do go city driving, I'll wake up at 7am on a Saturday and just fly around the city. Not crazy fast, but enough to stretch her legs. But I normally just fly up the Merritt Parkway.

#102 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

No it won't. Those games are still proven to be the "best of the best" - it's the era of pinball that most people interested in pinball love the most. The new games won't be that different due to their displays. The DMD era still has music, voice, light shows, ramps, toys - unless the new era innovates more on the playfield, only the color display will define it. The DMD era brought more than a display. The games themselves were just so much more advanced and entertaining than what came before it. At the end of the day, the games themselves make the game. Revenge From Mars makes my DMD games look outdated - but is only worth a fraction of what most DMDs cost. There won't be enough "next gen pins" to obliterate demand for the great DMD games.

Dude, CHILL-Ax! Time will tell my friend. And it's not only about the games making the games. Then why does a LOTR sell for less than a WOZ? Not even close as to which is a better game.

#104 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

It's somewhat relative to what the game initially cost, plus the fact that LOTR is out of production. Most people bought LOTR for $3200-$3600 NIB....or around the same or less used for a while. Now, it's selling for about $2000+ than what it was originally. That's pretty impressive. WOZ, while $6500 initially - is still available NIB for $8000-9500, so - there's no reason anyone would have to sell a used for for super low. Anything slightly below NIB would be enticing at the moment for possible buyers. So - while WOZ is still more expensive than LOTR, it hasn't gained value...LOTR has - a testament to the GAME itself.

7acaa93144ac46397bba04928b93b556_(resized).png

Was LOTR really that cheap NIB? If so...WOW...we are getting fleeced nowadays.

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