(Topic ID: 147970)

Will 8 New Pins Come Out 1st Half of 2016?

By kaneda

8 years ago


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  • Latest reply 8 years ago by vdojaq
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-4
#1 8 years ago

Hey guys...was just thinking about how titles normally trickle out slowly. But something crazy is about to happen. In Q1/Q2 2016, the market is going to be flooded with new in box pins available for sale. Here's what I'm counting will be revealed / released.

Alien
Rob Zombie
The Hobbit
The Big Lebowski
Spider-Man VE
Ghostbusters
GOT Premium
P3: Lexi Lightspeed

This is exciting but also very interesting. Collectors usually have a lot more space between pins, so what will this mean? Some may say this event will saturate the market causing all prices to decline. I could see this happening. Others may say the themes are drastically different and are targeting different buyers. Maybe? What is certain is nobody thought all of these titles would collide around the same time, but that's exactly what's going to happen. Personally I don't think there's room for all of these to survive / be successful.

In the end, it's going to be a heck of a 6 months. 2015 was such a let down year on so many levels and in 2016 we're going to be playing more NIB pinball than we've seen in the last 20 years, no? Awesome things to come!

#2 8 years ago

Alien I'm really doubtful

Got premium I'm not calling that a new pin.

TBL and RZ who knows?

I'd say safely TH (finally), GB and SMVE most likely.

#3 8 years ago

I will say that Stern not releasing any details on SMVE may have cost them at least my purchase because I just spent that money.

#4 8 years ago

Pat Lawlers game and hopefully Pinball Circuis.

#5 8 years ago

I do NOT see Alien, TBL, or TH coming out until winter 2016.

Wasn't TH supposed to come out in conjunction with the movies? When was the last one movie made...? (I know about the re-tooling of the PF after Expo's thrashing of the original design, wasn't THAT over a year ago now too?)

I am almost starting to think TBL is vaporware. I used to follow it back in 2014, and I can't remember the last time there was a SERIOUS update towards its production.

Alien I do have hope for since Heighway has a solid presence here, and the team gives fairly consistent updates "when it's time". With FTR under their belt and having enough footing for Bowen to do a tutorial on it, I see Alien coming, but it will have multiple delays; and I see it finally heading to homes around the turn of 2016 into 2017.

This whole "taking 2-4 years for a pinball machine to see fruition" routine is what will guarantee sales of GoT, SMVE, and GB.

Look how long it took MMR to come out, and that had a solid footing of details and drawings from 1997 on its side. What are we going on for some owners: 2.5 years now waiting for their games...?

Like it or not, Stern will continue to outsell everyone no matter the quality of the other games due to one polarizing factor: I can have it now rather than later.

#6 8 years ago

I'm doing my best right now to help the Q1/Q2 target for Alien happen.

#7 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

In Q1/Q2 2016, the market is going to be flooded with new in box pins available for sale.

How many of these are going to actually be meaningfully "available?"

Prediction: some of these pins will not ship at all in this time frame. Others probably will not ship to anyone who did not preorder.

At least one won't "available" in any conventional meaning of the word, but will probably ship.

If "available" means distributors have stock on hand, I'd bet on 3-4.

#8 8 years ago

Wouldn't call GoT Premium a new game.

#9 8 years ago
Quoted from rai:

TBL and RZ who knows?

since this is a kaneda thread I'll bet you that RZ's start shipping in the first half of 2016

the sterns yes, though 2 have not been confirmed, but maybe only one will between GB & SMVE will be in the first half

TH most likely

TBL and Alien I'm not sure but if I had to pick from this pair I'd say Alien

#10 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

something crazy is about to happen.

Kaneda might buy one.

#11 8 years ago
Quoted from o-din:

Kaneda might buy one.

Whoa whoa whoa.... . Let's not jump to crazy conclusions here.

Kaneda is Pinside's version of a stock market analyst: LOTS of discussion but not much in terms of "chips in".

And for those ready to play the victim or call foul, that's not meant to be an insult or back-handed compliment. It is what it is based on topic history as well as posts based on in-home purchases. He generates a LOT of discussion with minimal investment in hardware at home (based on what I've seen).

#12 8 years ago

I'm going to go with "No".

/wipes hands on pants

#13 8 years ago

Well most people getting TH or TBL have spent that money a looooong time ago...I'm sure they will have available funds for one of the new titles in Q1 (if they so choose). The sky isn't falling.

-1
#14 8 years ago
Quoted from NPO:

Whoa whoa whoa.... . Let's not jump to crazy conclusions here.
Kaneda is Pinside's version of a stock market analyst: LOTS of discussion but not much in terms of "chips in".
And for those ready to play the victim or call foul, that's not meant to be an insult or back-handed compliment. It is what it is based on topic history as well as posts based on in-home purchases. He generates a LOT of discussion with minimal investment in hardware at home (based on what I've seen).

All because of one thing: room. And to be honest, it's saved me thousands. Otherwise I would have totally be all in on Magic Girl, RAZA, Predator and The Hobbit. Instead I put 30K into the Hellcat.

-1
#15 8 years ago
Quoted from NPO:

I do NOT see Alien, TBL, or TH coming out until winter 2016.
Wasn't TH supposed to come out in conjunction with the movies? When was the last one movie made...? (I know about the re-tooling of the PF after Expo's thrashing of the original design, wasn't THAT over a year ago now too?)
I am almost starting to think TBL is vaporware. I used to follow it back in 2014, and I can't remember the last time there was a SERIOUS update towards its production.
Alien I do have hope for since Heighway has a solid presence here, and the team gives fairly consistent updates "when it's time". With FTR under their belt and having enough footing for Bowen to do a tutorial on it, I see Alien coming, but it will have multiple delays; and I see it finally heading to homes around the turn of 2016 into 2017.
This whole "taking 2-4 years for a pinball machine to see fruition" routine is what will guarantee sales of GoT, SMVE, and GB.
Look how long it took MMR to come out, and that had a solid footing of details and drawings from 1997 on its side. What are we going on for some owners: 2.5 years now waiting for their games...?
Like it or not, Stern will continue to outsell everyone no matter the quality of the other games due to one polarizing factor: I can have it now rather than later.

Hobbit is on the assembly line. Yes they are test games, but I can't imagine we're looking at another 8 months now. But like you said, who knows. It's already years late.

I've said it many times before and you stated it too...Stern is the only real player in town. Spooky is the only boutique that's working. Gary is laughing all the way to the bank. Stern never posts on Pinside. Stern is driving quality down and price up. Yet they have something you can play within a month or two of reveal.

My prediction is this: When Ghostbusters is released, everyone is going to flock to it and it will be Stern's best selling pin in years. That theme alone hits the pinball demographic greater than anything. It's a movie we all universally love. Now I'm hoping and praying they don't fuck it up with the new case on it anywhere, but we'll see shortly. But if it has and LCD I can see people flooding JJP with requests for a refund.

Even though it's not shipping, Hobbit remains the most innovative pin coming. I'd say it's a toss up with Lebowski.

Dutch Pinball went from Hero to Zero in 2015. Nobody is impressed anymore by the tactic of luring buyers in with a seemingly finished product only to spend the next year rebuilding the whole thing and revealing you had no licensing rights to the stuff you sold people on. Why anyone still has their money locked up with Dutch is beyond me.

-1
#16 8 years ago
Quoted from anthony691:

How many of these are going to actually be meaningfully "available?"
Prediction: some of these pins will not ship at all in this time frame. Others probably will not ship to anyone who did not preorder.
At least one won't "available" in any conventional meaning of the word, but will probably ship.
If "available" means distributors have stock on hand, I'd bet on 3-4.

I predict people who order the Hobbit in 2016 will get it before some of the people who have waited years. Just like WOZ. This will happen. Jack wants new money over money he's already cashed in.

#17 8 years ago
Quoted from NPO:

I am almost starting to think TBL is vaporware. I used to follow it back in 2014, and I can't remember the last time there was a SERIOUS update towards its production.

Just because you haven't been paying attention doesn't give you the right to invent your own facts. There have been plenty of updates throughout 2015, including reasons for the delays. Production samples were tested at the DPO & a new board had just been shown that solves issues they had with the samples. It will be shipping soon.

#18 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

Just because you haven't been paying attention doesn't give you the right to invent your own facts. There have been plenty of updates throughout 2015, including reasons for the delays. Prosecution samples were tested at the DPO & a new board had just been shown that solves issues they had with the samples. It will be shipping soon.

Agreed. TBL is not vaporware. Roger Sharpe wouldn't be on board if it were.

#19 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

Why anyone still has their money locked up with Dutch is beyond me.

You sure yap your flap a lot for someone who doesn't contribute anything financially to pinball. You have no stake yet you're constantly posting the same old shit-stirring stuff with this sense of entitlement and superiority. You know nothing about this industry or how it works. The fact that you even considered putting money in on Jpop and working for him speaks volumes - and you have the audacity to question how anyone else spends their money on pinball?

In regards to Dutch Pinball - perhaps you've forgotten about BOP 2.0 - a beautiful licensed product the changed an old game into a modern one more impressive than new Sterns. It shipped. It exists. I have it and play it a lot! You forget that people around the world have played the Lebowski Protos and Samples. What they've accomplished doesn't show you they're the real deal? WTF do you want them to do? You couldn't dream to accomplish what they have in the pinball world.

12
#20 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

You sure yap your flap a lot for someone who doesn't contribute anything financially to pinball. You have no stake yet you're constantly posting the same old shit-stirring stuff with this sense of entitlement and superiority. You know nothing about this industry or how it works. The fact that you even considered putting money in on Jpop and working for him speaks volumes - and you have the audacity to question how anyone else spends their money on pinball?
In regards to Dutch Pinball - perhaps you've forgotten about BOP 2.0 - a beautiful licensed product the changed an old game into a modern one more impressive than new Sterns. It shipped. It exists. I have it and play it a lot! You forget that people around the world have played the Lebowski Protos and Samples. What they've accomplished doesn't show you they're the real deal? WTF do you want them to do? You couldn't dream to accomplish what they have in the pinball world.

Why are you being so mean and nasty? Why are you personally attacking me? I started a thread and everyone is having a mature discussion. And I agreed with what you said and then you fly off the handle on me? What gives?

If you don't like me, fine. But then ignore me or don't engage in my discussions. Saying I know nothing about pinball isn't true. I've stated numerous times about how and when I engaged JPOP. It was in November of 2014. And if you recall, nobody knew it was vaporware then as he was promising a December reveal. I quickly learned at the same time as everyone else things were dire.

And I stand behind my statement that locking money into Dutch was inane. Why? Because what's the point? They are going to make as many TBL's as people order. It's not limited.

In the future, please do not personally insult people who are stating an opinion. It just makes you seem small and juvenile.

#22 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

Just because you haven't been paying attention doesn't give you the right to invent your own facts. There have been plenty of updates throughout 2015, including reasons for the delays. Prosecution samples were tested at the DPO & a new board had just been shown that solves issues they had with the samples. It will be shipping soon.

I didn't invent any "facts". I just said I don't remember the last time there was any significant "OMG, here it comes!!!!!!!!" update that set Pinside on fire. Last update I remember doing that was "Oops, the full songs won't be in here after all.", and I lost interest altogether.

#23 8 years ago

Pinside. 5% facts and 95% speculation.

I'm confident all of the 7 pins I mentioned will ship within the next 6 months.

#24 8 years ago
Quoted from NPO:

I didn't invent any "facts". I just said I don't remember the last time there was any significant "OMG, here it comes!!!!!!!!" update that set Pinside on fire. Last update I remember doing that was "Oops, the full songs won't be in here after all.", and I lost interest altogether.

Well, no big updates like ' reveals' of things that will be in the game, but you must remember they are a start-up, and not a company that's bringing a new pinball after they've made several others before. Keeping that in mind, I think the "production-test-models" was a big update. Sure, there were problems, but that's why they were made and improvements on the PCBs have been made after that.

About the songs: I can see some disappointment there, but for myself (at the DPO): I thought for a pinball the music was better without the voices. If you don't think so, I think some people here have hinted already that they can be changed.

Not sure how soon, but I have faith that TBL will come in 2016, and I think it'll indeed be in the first half of it.

Alien: no idea. Full Throttle did have a lot of delays, but maybe once the production is all going smoothly, getting Alien on the line is not the big step I think it is (maybe they're a lot further than what I've seen/read). I do hope it's coming in 2016. I don't believe that Heighway can make a 3d game in the first half of 2016. Andrew really is a great guy that gets things done in the end (as far as I can tell, not really knowing him), but he's a bit overly optimistic as well I think.

Rob Zombie, The Hobbit and Ghostbusters are not really questions I think. I think it's not impossible that TBL comes before the Hobbit, but given the fact that JJP already has made another game, and almost every new manufacturer has more delays than thought of beforehand (except Spooky?), I can imagine JJP from now being faster with their new game than DP.
It'll be cool if Pats game will come out in 2016 as well!

Lexy Lightspeed and Pinball Circus? No idea.
SpidermanVE is half new and can be cool. GOT Premium not really imo.

-1
#25 8 years ago

I have faith in Heighway's ability to go from reveal to production in a shorter window than most. They have the money / production facility set up to do so. Only question now is how far are we to an Alien reveal. I'd rather them wait and do a Stern like reveal. Show it right before it ships. With it being a licensed pin, they won't be able to make any changes quickly. I'm confident Andrew / Aurich will get this baby right the first time.

Dutch is the real question mark for me and I think most of us. What's taking so long now? Very impressed by what they showed at Expo. They've re-engineered the game from the guts up. And it looks impressive. But months and months are going by. What's left to do?

#26 8 years ago

I have to agree that GB is going to be a hit. From what I understand there are some features on this game that are quite unusual for Stern. For me, it is the ONLY one of the 7 mentioned I have any interest in.

On top of that, I will NEVER purchase another LE from Stern. Get all the bang for your buck on a Premium and mod it to your liking.

#27 8 years ago
Quoted from vdojaq:

I have to agree that GB is going to be a hit. From what I understand there are some features on this game that are quite unusual for Stern. For me, it is the ONLY one of the 7 mentioned I have any interest in.
On top of that, I will NEVER purchase another LE from Stern. Get all the bang for your buck on a Premium and mod it to your liking.

Do you have GB feature specifics you're hearing?

#28 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

Prosecution samples

Are you talking about Magic Girl?

#29 8 years ago
Quoted from vdojaq:

I have to agree that GB is going to be a hit. From what I understand there are some features on this game that are quite unusual for Stern. For me, it is the ONLY one of the 7 mentioned I have any interest in.
On top of that, I will NEVER purchase another LE from Stern. Get all the bang for your buck on a Premium and mod it to your liking.

Do tell. Widebody? Non-standard bottom lane/flipper configuration? Real knocker? Original artwork?

#30 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

You sure yap your flap a lot for someone who doesn't contribute anything financially to pinball. You have no stake yet you're constantly posting the same old shit-stirring stuff with this sense of entitlement and superiority. You know nothing about this industry or how it works. The fact that you even considered putting money in on Jpop and working for him speaks volumes - and you have the audacity to question how anyone else spends their money on pinball?
In regards to Dutch Pinball - perhaps you've forgotten about BOP 2.0 - a beautiful licensed product the changed an old game into a modern one more impressive than new Sterns. It shipped. It exists. I have it and play it a lot! You forget that people around the world have played the Lebowski Protos and Samples. What they've accomplished doesn't show you they're the real deal? WTF do you want them to do? You couldn't dream to accomplish what they have in the pinball world.

The IGNORE button is your best friend, use it.

Claims he has no room for pinballs so wont buy one, then buys/leases a Hellcat which - he don't have room for so parks it somewhere else. What a hypocrite!

11
#31 8 years ago

Just because someone has a smaller collection does not mean they cant comment on the state of pinball...

#32 8 years ago
Quoted from GravitaR:

The IGNORE button is your best friend, use it.
Claims he has no room for pinballs so wont buy one, then buys/leases a Hellcat which - he don't have room for so parks it somewhere else. What a hypocrite!

HAHA. I am 15 minutes from my Hellcat.

#33 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

Why are you being so mean and nasty? Why are you personally attacking me? I started a thread and everyone is having a mature discussion. And I agreed with what you said and then you fly off the handle on me? What gives?

You personally attacked the hundreds of
people who have pre-paid for
the Big Lebowski with nothing to back up your venom against Dutch other than your own impatience.

Quoted from kaneda:

And I stand behind my statement that locking money into Dutch was inane. Why? Because what's the point? They are going to make as many TBL's as people order. It's not limited.

It's not inane or insane. Again - they've proven they can make, license and ship a killer pinball product. BOP 2.0. They've shown the Protos and Samples. Roger Shrpe is behind it. It's not insane. Jpop was always insane. TBL has always been real. I paid for it a while ago and got
It at a lower price with rug and chrome included. Why would I pull my money out? I'd get it later, with less stuff and for more money. That would be insane at this point. It's right around the corner.

Quoted from kaneda:

In the future, please do not personally insult people who are stating an opinion. It just makes you seem small and juvenile.

Project much? I'm just calling you out on your narcissism and know-nothing bravado. Words have meaning. Opinions without facts to back them up are nothing
but bluster, and in this case an insult. You fired the first shot.

#34 8 years ago

Ironic because I have 15 pinball machines in my garage but no car.

#35 8 years ago

Personally, I'm more pumped about Lexi Lightspeed than anything else! Was a blast to play at Expo and felt like the most forward-thinking game I've seen since P2k. Just opinion here folks (don't get sensitive if you disagree).

#36 8 years ago

And 15 days from knowing everything about GB

#37 8 years ago

Just got off the phone with Trump.
He does not want to let any Pinball Machines into the country until they find out what the hell is going on!

#38 8 years ago

That I can only neg so much

#39 8 years ago

Stern will deliver GB and SMVE.

Spooky will start RZ production.

If the past is a predictor of the future then those are pretty certain.

All the rest are maybe.

#40 8 years ago

I have no clue what will come out and when, but 2016, in theory, does shape up to be a very interesting year. The delays of 2015, the emergence of Highway, and more of a presence from Spooky, are going to create a level of competition we haven't seen in a long time.

I hope it drives prices down, but I really don't think that will happen, at least not with NIB games. I think the prices on the secondary market could go down as people need money and space to get new games.

- For me, the Highway system looks like a great deal. I loved FTH and Alien looks very promising. I like the space and money savings there.

- TH looks great...I'll take a wait and see approach and play it a lot before pulling the tigger.

- I'm on a year delay with Sterns so I can get games with mature code, so nothing is really calling my name at this point. I do love the GB theme.

-I was all about TBL, but I'm not sure I want to pay 10k for it. Regardless of whether it's true or not, I can't help but feel like I'm paying for the startup of the business and mistakes, delays, etc...

That about sums it up for me right now.

#41 8 years ago

About a year ago (October 2014) I made a list of the pins that were to be released in 2015 for a French forum. http://www.flipjuke.fr/embarras-choix-petit-apercu-des-projets-cours-t107732.html (sorry, that's in French)
I think I counted ≈ 20 different pins.
Among them were Predator, Magic Girl, RAZA, P3, TH, TBL, Gremlins (lol), Nemo, Wooly, Spooky #2, Heighway #2, Timeshock, Circus Maximus, Thunderbirds...

You all know where these projects stand. The reality is what?
- 4 Stern models (Wrestlemania*, Kiss, GoT, WNBJM)
- Full Throttle
- AMH approaching completion
- Wooly (4 produced)
- Nemo (at least 1 produced)
- Am I forgetting something?

* announced in 2014 but produced in 2015 ?

-3
#42 8 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

You personally attacked the hundreds of
people who have pre-paid for
The Big Lebowski with nothing to back up your venom against Dutch other than your own impatience.

It's not inane or insane. Again - they've proven they can make, license and ship a killer pinball product. BOP 2.0. They've shown the Protos and Samples. Roger Shrpe is behind it. It's not insane. Jpop was always insane. TBL has always been real. I paid for it a while ago and got
It at a lower price with rug and chrome included. Why would I pull my money out? I'd get it later, with less stuff and for more money. That would be insane at this point. It's right around the corner.

Project much? I'm just calling you out on your narcissism and know-nothing bravado. Words have meaning. Opinions without facts to back them up are nothing
but bluster, and in this case an insult. You fired the first shot.

Happy you're happy with your TBL deposit. My opinion is locking money up on a machine for years isn't worth it. Save money? How much in total are you going to save on that Lebowski?

Why are you so upset? Seriously?

#43 8 years ago
Quoted from jlm33:

About a year ago (October 2014) I made a list of the pins that were to be released in 2015 for a French forum. http://www.flipjuke.fr/embarras-choix-petit-apercu-des-projets-cours-t107732.html (sorry, that's in French)
I think I counted ≈ 20 different pins.
Among them were Predator, Magic Girl, RAZA, P3, TH, TBL, Gremlins (lol), Nemo, Wooly, Spooky #2, Heighway #2, Timeshock, Circus Maximus, Thunderbirds...
You all know where these projects stand. The reality is what?
- 4 Stern models (Wrestlemania*, Kiss, GoT, WNBJM)
- Full Throttle
- AMH approaching completion
- Wooly (4 produced)
- Nemo (at least 1 produced)
- Am I forgetting something?
* announced in 2014 but produced in 2015 ?

Forgetting Medieval Madness.

#44 8 years ago

I expect all of those to ship except Lebowski. Lebowski will be late 2016 at least. Alien will be pushing it, but I'm guessing Heighway will make the cut even if just barely.

-1
#45 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

Why are you being so mean and nasty? Why are you personally attacking me? I started a thread and everyone is having a mature discussion. And I agreed with what you said and then you fly off the handle on me? What gives?
If you don't like me, fine. But then ignore me or don't engage in my discussions. Saying I know nothing about pinball isn't true. I've stated numerous times about how and when I engaged JPOP. It was in November of 2014. And if you recall, nobody knew it was vaporware then as he was promising a December reveal. I quickly learned at the same time as everyone else things were dire.
And I stand behind my statement that locking money into Dutch was inane. Why? Because what's the point? They are going to make as many TBL's as people order. It's not limited.
In the future, please do not personally insult people who are stating an opinion. It just makes you seem small and juvenile.

Hey Kaneda, who you talkin to ? I can't see anything but ignored user comment...

#46 8 years ago

I think the latter half of 2016 will be more interesting. Many of the games listed in the first post of this thread are already paid for or calculated into budgets and collections. RZ is sold out, TBL initial wave sold, Hobbit initial wave sold, SMVE has been prepared for as many already sold their original SM or/and have budgeted for it if they didn't have one, same for GoT as the initial wave of premiums are probably sold. That leaves GB as the real wildcard to potentially mix things up for the next few months.

Stern's later titles and PPS' next move are the ones that will really have to fight hard for collector's dollars and game room space. If Stern releases a decent Star Wars pin later in 2016, it could be painful to all the other makers.

#47 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

All because of one thing: room. And to be honest, it's saved me thousands. Otherwise I would have totally be all in on Magic Girl, RAZA, Predator and The Hobbit. Instead I put 30K into the Hellcat.

Your apartment fits exactly one pin. Who you kidding?

#48 8 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

Happy you're happy with your TBL deposit. My opinion is locking money up on a machine for years isn't worth it. Save money? How much in total are you going to save on that Lebowski?

I want a Lebowski pinball. Why does it matter to you whether I buy it now or later? I like Dutch and I love BOP 2.0. I'm saving $1000 and get extra shit and the game sooner.

Quoted from kaneda:

Why are you so upset? Seriously

Why are you insulting those who bought a Lebowski? Seriously?

#49 8 years ago

Thunderbirds are go ?
maybe. Be interesting t see this happen in the Asian region.

#50 8 years ago
Quoted from beelzeboob:

Your apartment fits exactly one pin. Who you kidding?

he could always park it 15 minutes away.

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