Here's the main question... And I don't know when we'll get a real answer... Pinball is coming back. Arcades are coming back. How big will they both get. Most likely nowhere near the heyday of their past.
For 60s and 70s Pinball made more money than the film industry. At least that is according to a documentary that I watched, or an article that I read. So take that with a grain of salt... Also, until Jaws, Exorcist, and Star Wars. There really weren't hug box office movies. Most people here think a film that did 20 million in the 80s was a flop... Cos, they don't realize that 20-40 million was a hit film in the 80s, not a super hit, but good business.
Anyway... The true test to pinball I think will come when the older guard starts to die out. Let's hope that won't happen for a long time, as I wish health and wealth to everyone. But, is the new young blood in pinball enough to not only replace the old guard, but also continue to grow the industry.
Only time will tell.
And honestly... I do think there will be a slight or minor crash. Where the bubble bursts on some of these prices. But, I do think pins will hold some degree of value. Some of the cheaper pins might be like a craigslist piano. You pick it up and take it, its yours free.
But, the quality pins, those prices might fall, but still hold probably half their value.
Again, that is just speculation. The main thing to note. Look at all the arcade stuff coming back. When the next recession hits America, and its a matter of years... Pinball and arcades are going to get hit hard. But, I think hopefully the health of the hobby will keep the good companies afloat.
So, I think while it may never get to the heyday of yesteryear. And a good production run might be 2000-5000 sales instead which in the past was a normal production run. But, different era, different expectations and also different ways to manufacture.
But, one thing is certain. Pinball is not going anywhere anytime soon.