who cares, this is a hobby not stamp collecting or investing in gold coins.
As someone said, if prices go down I buy more. Prices go up I buy less. When I die my kids either get a little extra cash or some pinball games.
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Quoted from g0nz0:Thank man,
Yeah, I honestly originally thought that the overall opinion with the community was that people wanted prices lower so it would benefit the whole and everyone could have larger collections. I was so wrong!
I did some thinking last night and in all fairness if I had an expensive collection of machines I wouldn't want to hear they could lose value so I do understand why it got personal. I honestly didn't realize how overly sensitive some were about their pinvestments. And then of course you also have the "masters of the universe club" who like prices high so that limits the number of owners so that way they can feel special (and get professional photos taken of them standing next to their Monster Bash 24k Gold Edition). So I can now see why things went south fast.
Next time I will just keep my topics all unicorn farts and pixie dust. Saying things like "pins will continue to go up in price. Eventually they will be 50k and people will have a hard time deciding if they should buy a house or a pinball machine. Stern will announce a new model that features a living space and bed inside of the cabinet as part of the LE features."
BUT.... on the flipside, I did get several personal messages yesterday and all of them were very polite messages. Most of them just people telling me they agreed the market was high, they respected my opinion but warned me on why this was a touchy subject on Pinside. Some forewarned me on who some of the common trolls were and brought light to why the attacks we getting personal. They also warned me to never say anything bad about Stern as well. So I'll make sure I avoid that subject from here out as well. So thanks to you guys.
And for the record I did request the topic be removed with a moderator to avoid anymore hostility but they said no rules were being broken so they couldn't remove it, so oh well.
Live and learn I guess.
You've missed the point.
Most here couldn't care less what prices do. We love pinball. If prices plummet, we get to buy more pins.
Beyond that, people are snarky because the prediction of the 'bubble bursting' is a rite of passage for most new pin guys when they get upset that they cant afford all of the pins they want. Think of it as the denial stage of the addiction.
I started collecting a decade ago and back then people were CONVINCED the 'end was near'. And well...Here we are. $15K NIB sterns that sell out immediately and 20 somethings with access to more on location pins than I ever was...Creating their own nostalgic memories to fuel home purchases when they are old enough to afford them.
Quoted from g0nz0:Yeah you got me man. That is exactly what is was. I was starting my master plan to get a cheap pin buy telling people prices would start dropping in 10 years. I figure in 9 years when people start dumping their collections I could get one. I needed a decade to get my list ready.
I'm not trying to upset you nor do I think you have any plan. Just pointing out that your prediction is common among new collectors and none of them have come true.
And most importantly, if the market does plummet, most of us (including me) would be elated.
Quoted from g0nz0:I think this prediction is something collectors of all time lengths have. Not all agree it will happen, some feel this way also, but I don't believe it is just something new pinheads have.
And technically I am not new. Sure I am a new home owner of a pin but I wouldn't say I am new to pinball all together. And I would never claim to know it all. I just felt like a new change was coming with the next generation of kids. So I presented said theory and truly want to hear what people think. (about the industry that is... not me personally lol)
People resort to attacking me personally when they have no defense to their argument.
I believe you are a new collector. Could be wrong. Its nothing to be ashamed of. We were all new at one point and we've all been dismayed by the rise in prices over the years.
I would also add that people arent 'attacking' you because they don't have a 'defense'. Its because for decades theres been a never-ending loop of new collectors that come here with the same prediction.
And they never come true.
Quoted from Darscot:Man this thread went protect the hive. I think the OP makes some sense and is reasonable. The market does seem to be getting to the point that the bubble will burst. I dunno if it will ever plummet but I can see a correction coming. Things are a little nutty right now for sure.
I dont know who would want prices to keep rising lol.
I'd LOVE to see prices bottom out and have NIB pins cost $4500 again.
Cant imagine anyone here wouldnt want that.
Quoted from Darscot:Considering how this thread went into full on protect the hive. Clearly people really want them to increase forever and even the mention that they could decrease got them all fired up and grabbing their torches and pitchforks.
Or maybe its the opposite and they'd love to see them plummet (I know I would) but get tired of those who claim we'll be seeing $4K NIB's any day?
Or not. Maybe there is a mix of both. Flippers and then those who'd love to see pins be less expensive (which I gotta believe is the majority of folks here).
Quoted from g0nz0:we all saw how that ended.
With the complete and utter demise of on prem applications and a complete re write of how businesses, including retail run?
Quoted from g0nz0:You know that I will totally agree with!
If someone buys a 5k pin and puts a lot of money into it and restores it back to mint, hell yeah, makes some profit.
Truth be told I can see why some pins cost what they do. Unfortunately a lot of people own a worn out MM and go "hey, Bob sold his for 10k, I'll post mine for 10k. Then someone desperate for that machine (with pockets deep enough to not feel it) will snatch it up. They don't care, they just gotta have it! They used to play that all the time as a kid, how cool would it be to own it!
Then another sellers says "man, Joe sold his crappy MM and he got 10k also, maybe I can get 11k.
That is the artificial value I see dying off the moment all the deep pocket buyers dry up. You can only fish a lake for so long before it dries up.
(Disclaimer: The prices I used are examples and may not reflect actual values.)
This exact argument has been used, literally, for decades, in every hobby.
Including pinball.
I'd also add that there is no such thing as 'artificial value'. If something sells for $10K guess whats it value is?
And dont forget, hipster barcades, filled with 20 somethings, are playing more pinball than many of us ever did and creating their own nostalgia for these things
Consider the lake restocked.
(Also dont forget virtually all of us would love to see prices plummet. We're just not holding our breath.)
Quoted from g0nz0:Ok, in all fairness I'll retitled that.
Artificial value will now be known as "temporary value".
All value is temporary. In the case of pinballs, the value has been increasing for decades despite an almost constant assertion by some that the end is near (within 5-10 years)...And all the while the popularity and availability of on location pins has been creeping north.
Quoted from g0nz0:That is when I predict the overpriced super titles (as I call them) to drop about 30-40% in value roughly.
Ok. So you're prediction is that in the next 5-10 years, ultra high priced pins will drop 30-40% and everything else, what? 10-20%?
What a yawnfest dude! I can here for plummeting firesale prices!!!!
Quoted from g0nz0:You know I will agree with that. It is all temporary but there is usually a pretty standard market value. Like right now 72's chevelle's have a certain "average" value so to speak. Like a blue book value. It goes a little up and and little down based on condition.
Now let's say Vin Diesel drives one in the next Fast and Furious and holy smokes everyone's gotta have it. Well you will normally see an influx... one that will roughly last as long as the movie does until Toretto is back to driving his RX-7.. the that "original" blue book value sorta returns. Usually not dead on but close.
So that is what I am referring to. Right now I believe pin is getting a lot of attention. And once people are looking the other way we will return to 2007 prices (plus some).
If you get what I mean... but like I said, I'm not certain of any of this.. just a hunch.
Where do you see them getting alot of attention? And why?
Quoted from g0nz0:I believe with this barcade craze and stuff going on and the fact that almost every overprice pin just happens to be featured in "Pinball Arcade" (which I believe people play and say "man I want this table in real life"). I believe it is giving pin a surge of interest but I don't see it lasting.
Plus once those pinball arcade kids see the price they will continue to play the virtual version.
Which puts me onto a new point. Virtual Cabinets. I can't stand the concept but it seem people are going in that direction due to the high prices. Gonna be real sad when pinhead price out all the new blood and have them all buying virtual cabs.
Sad indeed.
You mean like when the arcade fad finally died, operators sold off their pins and the market skyrocketed because of homebuyers looking to recapture the nostalgia? Imagine those 22 year olds in 10 years now able to afford the pins they played during their young bachelor years...
As for virtual pins...There are multicabs for arcades (and more meaningful substitutes than pins have emulation that they can play on their couch) but the prices have steadily risen on arcade games for even longer than pins have...
Quoted from g0nz0:I also remember a time they couldn't give them a away.
Yes, but now almost 50% of pinball games are sold to home buyers, so the risk of seeing every single barcade go out of business, almost simultaneously and creating a glut in the marketplace is mitigated by home buyers eager for cheap pins and inventories sitting, heavily, in peoples basements.
Not to mention the kids that used to frequent the barcades willing/wanting (and now, 10 years older and richer) to buy the pins the bar is dumping.
Quoted from DBLM:Hey OP, serious question. What is your professional background? You use a lot of consistent terminology in your postings. Do you have an analytics or economics background or are you arm-chairing this?
He's arm chairing. He's confusing (and making up) a lot of terms here. I'm not knocking him but I think he's getting a little over his head especially when he starts making up terms like 'artificial value' etc. Again, no offense to OP. I respect his opinion.
At the end of the day EVERYTHING is a bubble. We will be swallowed by the sun eventually. Trust me. Sell your homes prior to that event. 
Quoted from tbanthony:The good times will roll until there is a recession. Sales of luxury items will drop. The boutique companies will probably fold under the pressure. I give JJP 50/50 -- depends on how much market share they have gotten when it hits. Right now, one bad game probably kills them and so one bad recession probably does too. Planetary Pinball probably just takes a rest and produces no new games during a downturn. Stern will probably survive, unless the increase in overhead of their new facility crushes them when things go bad -- they would not be the first company killed by the cost of their own new/upgraded facility.
Long-term, a couple companies survive but probably eventually merge.
We're literally just beginning to emerge from the worst recession ever...And pin prices have risen steadily throughout it.
Quoted from cottonm4:To the OP: Man, you sure know how to draw a crowd !!
We'll, the title is misleading. He promised a fire sale and what we now have is a ~10% reduction within the next decade.*
The old bait and switch!!
*except for 'super elite ultra high end artificial value bubble tables'**
**This excludes actual bubble games like bubble bobble and bubble hockey***
***Unless stern releases a Ultra exclusive SLE-MAXPOWER Bubble Hockey themed pin
Quoted from drsfmd:LCD screens aside, what new tech has come into pinball in the last 25 years? There's literally nothing Stern has done on a playfield that B/W (and others) didn't do before them.
Easier dimpling and cripplingly deficient code?
Runs away.
Quoted from benheck:Why does anyone care if the values bottom out? I mean, pins aren't investments RIGHT?
Flippers. Beyond that, can't imagine anyone wanting anything but lower prices.
I'd also add that 'bottoming out' in this thread meant 10-20% for the vast majority of pins. So a $10k pin going for 8-9k.
Quoted from g0nz0:Thank you for replying, you made my night. I was seriously sitting here earlier thinking to myself "does nobody really see how slammed I got first and see why I got angry those times. Do they not realize my post is just a theory, not a fact".
You gave me hope again!
if people knew you were talking about a 10-20% blip and not the bottom falling
Out (plummeting) things would have been different I think.
Don't take it personally. You're the most recent newb in a long line of newbs that put forth such theories. They've never come true and people get tired of hearing about them.
It's not personal. All of us would like to see prices dip a bit.
Quoted from Baiter:He's correct. The Great Recession was from 2006.5 -> 2009.5 but pin prices never actually declined... they started on the up trend in the middle of the Great Recession and have yet to have a pullback overall. Yes, used game prices flattened out a couple years ago when the market started getting flooded with NIB game options, but the prices of NIB games keep going up, so the pinball economy overall is still on the rise.
Correct. the 'official' (read: academically defined term recession) ended in 2009 but almost flat growth remained.
Regardless, prices still rose.
I dont think anyone disagrees that a recession or high unemployment constricts the sale of many things. The elasticity, so far, for pins seems relatively inelastic though obviously not completely immune.
Its also inteesting to note that personal consumption expeditures rises many times during recessionary periods.
And then of course there's the issue of who is impacted by recessions.
"the great recession has hit bottom 99% incomes much harder than the 2001 recession
(Table 1), and in part because upper incomes excluding realized capital gains
have resisted relatively well during the Great Recession."
Quoted from tbanthony:Actually, I think the data shows that the price is elastic: As price increased, volume fell. Now there are some issues with this data -- it is eBay sales only and certainly doesn't represent the whole market for multiples reasons (people shifting to selling through other channels, more dealer sales pushing the price up, etc.). But if you JUST looked at this data, this would clearly demonstrate price elasticity.
Well thats right but NIB sales increased over that time so you have to add that into the assumption.
Quoted from bob_e:Please define "plummet" and "dramatically drop" ... a price drop of 20-25% or more??
I can see market correction of 5-10% if the economy drops off. And what games drop out of favor
I see more people getting into the hobby and less people selling games from their collection.
Look at the collector car market, more buyers and a finite supply of cars.
So we have MMR and the collector cars has: tribute/clone/recreations made from base models and repro parts.
He said that super ultra high end bubble pins could see a 20-40% drop. 'Regular' titles, 10-20% drop.
In a decade or so.
So Medieval madness from $10K to $4-6K. Metallica from $7K to $6,200.
Quoted from arcademojo:Man I really have to ask myself how long most of the people here have been collecting???????
I'll try to explain this for all the people that haven't been in the hobby since the big crash of 1999/2000. Yes pinball did crash, prices plummeted once. Back then pinballs were an operator's game. (Yeah there were some collectors but not like it is today) They were not considered collectables to the public. There were very few pins in the wild. There prices were rock bottom and to many considered junk.
There were only a few places to buy parts and they were expensive.
And antique floor standing radios crashed when tv's were released.
Everything crashes BEFORE its collectible.
We're talking about the crash of an item thats already a collectible.
Quoted from arcademojo:You mean like everything else that WAS collectible and is not now. Or everything else that was a hip fad at onetime and is not now.
Yes.
My hula hoop, garbage pail kid cards and skinny jean collection have dropped terribly in pricing lately.
Wake me up when when pinball prices plummet so I can gobble them up. Until then...White noise.
1 month later
Quoted from g0nz0:1980's - Pinball's Booming
1990's - Pinball's Crashing
Never underestimate the power of a decade.
I'm sure if you had told pinheads in the 80's that in 10 years Stern would be the last struggling manufacturor and pinball would be in a coma they would have laughed at you...
But one thing is certain... that laugher died.
As has been noted, there was a fundamental difference between the late 1990's and today. Home use buyers. They make up >50% of the market now. So we'd need to see a complete collapse of pinball in the wild AND in homes for a catastrophic price drop.
Could happen for sure, but the buyers are much more diversified than they were back then.
I'd also note that the drop in prices in the late 90's lead to the home market that we see today.
Either way, I hope prices collapse. More pins for me.
1 week later
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:Prices are not based on supply and demand exclusively to the aspects of pinball.
That is an extreme oversimplification.
However, prices are heavily influenced by the state of the economy.
The market pricing for titles does fluctuate for specific reasons, up and down.
Those that have not seen the changes, have not been around long enough to watch the market, especially starting from 1990.
The amounts are not always inconsequential either, sometimes several thousand dollars.
Some market periods are very distinct for a reason, if a person is familiar with pinball history.
This chart also shows the current rises due to market inflation and manufacturer MSRP prices, particularly in the past 5 years.
This value is a "median average", not an absolute, or specific to an individual title.
Read the description, it is important.
The chart is heavily influenced by current modern manufacturers.
Also, this is the first year JJP was included in market data based on viable statistics.
The market is presently healthy, however the industry is questionable.
These two areas are not comparable, and should not be interchanged in discussion, but they are interrelated.
Keep flipping.
Supply and demand is the ONLY thing that dictates free market prices. Full stop.
Now, what creates a glut./scarcity in supply or an increase/decrease in demand is up for debate.
Additionally, people keep forgetting that >50% of pins are now sold for home use only.
None of this means prices couldn't tank but comparing it to the 90's is a meaningless exercise.
2 months later
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:The decades are reversed in totality of sales regarding the various periods of success in the pinball industry.
Telling owners that Stern would be the last surviving manufacturer they certainly would have laughed.
Why?
They decided to quit.
They did not "soldier on".
People have given so much kudos credit to this company that made bad financial and production decisions, but failed to recognize those that bought their games when they were struggling. People are simply unaware, or don't care.
Stern stopped making games in 1984, made no major game hits since 1981 (Lightning), and were not around in the late 1980s in preparation of the part of the resurgence in the 1990s. Iron Maiden has become a cult game now, but was marginally successful title (1982).
Their sales contributions overall were poor in comparison to every other manufacturer, and titles few after 1980 with Flight 2000 (AUG 1980) being the last highly successful game.
However, their build quality was always inferior to Bally, Williams, or Gottlieb games, often copying complete board sets and technology directly from Bally themselves in a period of less legalities.
Unfortunately, their quality probably always will be less now, if a person understands what happened at Stern in 2007, and certainly since 2011 as the changes were blatant in terms of quality.
Stern as a company continued to operate indirectly, however, through conglomeration of joining forces with other companies through other resources such as Data East and Sega in the late 80s and into the 90s to ride the last "wave", but that came much later after their short hiatus.
The only thing that Stern is presently laughing about is the lack of knowledge as they increase prices by reducing features and build quality to maximize temporary profits until the end of the latest interest period. They know it will not last forever, and are attempting to capitalize on this same absence of understanding.
People that state that a comparison to the 1990s are market uneducated both from the standpoint of manufacturers and pricing. Presently, the pinball industry is moving into a comparative period that occurred in 1993-1994. Many manufacturers, many choices, failing manufacturers, or those that choose to quit, and over reaching prices. Learn from the past, or repeat the mistakes. So many repeated mistakes, and subsequent denial. See the above comment for an example of this ignorance.
Stern only "survived" out of a private choice to LOSE MONEY for the first 4 years after they former stuck out on their own again from 1999-2003. TSPP was one of the saving grace titles. They were not "saviors of pinball", that marketing makes people want you to believe. They regurgitated titles for reruns just like they are doing today for some of the same reasons. They nearly imploded after continued losses all the way up to 2009, and changes were FORCED upon Gary Stern and company by the investor council which otherwise would have shut the company down permanently.
The "real" present joke is on new owners, not Stern.
Something people should consider in all those "deep thoughts" of understanding pinball history, and what really happened.
I doubt this explanation will be shared in a pinball book.
Feel free to point out any inaccuracies in the comment I made.
While we wait for that, it is interesting to point out that when listing out a comparison between the 90's and today you failed to mention the most important variable...The purchasing audience/consumer. [see the two comments above this one to illustrate the point]
2 months later
Quoted from gunstarhero:It's because arcades/barcades are a fad right now with the 20 somethings. Wait until they hit their 30's...
Agreed.
Once they have more money and move out of apartments and into houses (with basements) they will probably drive prices up.
Quoted from Blitzburgh99:I recall as a kid seeing restored Model T’s going for huge dollars at auctions. Now they are some of the cheapest cars going across the block. Why? The old timers that recalled them from their youth passed on and the newer generations have no emotional ties to them.
Reasonable logic....But...
Quoted from Blitzburgh99:As it relates to 60/70s muscle cars, that is the sweet spot in the auto market and those cars will remain timeless, and hold their value better than the Model T era, across all future generations.
Why are model T's susceptible to this but muscle cars are timeless?
My kids wont have any interest in a non-DMD pin when they are older (barely do now) and if they do its because I have them in my basement...
Quoted from Davidus56:As long as the economy is humming along, pinball prices for the truly good games, will hold up. If (once) we take a downturn, I would not be surprised to see pinballs drop by 50%.
Between 2005 and 2010 the economy tanked by almost 7 points.
Pinball prices continued up.
Quoted from arcademojo:Your forgetting in 2005 pinball prices were dirt cheap. Yes they started to slowly rise over those years. But it wasn't until after the economy got better that prices started to jump. It wasn't until 20012/2013 that we started seeing prices go up by $500 to $1000 a year.
2005 had very solid economic growth. The material downturn didn't hit until 2008.
So if pin prices were cheap, it had nothing to do with an economic downturn.
Now, if pin prices 'plummeted' in 2008-2011, then maybe there's at least a correlation to investigate.
Quoted from jwilson:\ I'd say there's probably only a half dozen years left before it wans, but there will always be a core collector group.
I am so excited to start buying cheap pins in 72 months!!
Quoted from Whysnow:can someone please let me know when the prices are going to plummet? I have a few more games I would like to buy
Less than 72 months.
GET READY!!!!
Quoted from jmountjoy111:So how much are we talking then. I just want my Congo and whitewater back... in 72 months what will that set me back
The OP clarified his definition of 'plummeting' as a ~10% drop I believe.
Quoted from taylor34:The game changer will probably be in the next 5 to 10 years, with the way the internet is going eventually the latency will get down fast enough that you'll be able to play a game remotely. So camera mounted above the screen with button signals sent over the internet. What does this mean? Well it means that you could route games from your own basement, you could play all your favorite games from home, etc. When that technology gets good enough (it'll never be perfect) I could see that being a disruptive force. Like if I could play the newest sterns from my house remotely I totally would. It's coming....
Interesting. Or maybe a virtual cab with a 4K/3D monitor displays and plays a 'real' pinball game remotely so you get real physics etc along with the feel of a cabinet.
Quoted from wayout440:...except that by then it probably won't be a cab and monitor. It will be a VR helmet, or glasses, or some tech not even thought of yet.
Or a complete room ala holodeck
Quoted from wayout440:The ones I'm looking at have the same listing day in and day out. If they were interested in actually selling the pin, at some point they'd lower the price and eventually sell it. That's how I know.
So a couple pins you are interested in are still available and the owners/distributors arent dumping the price. Ok...
Well, heres a KISS NIB LE that 'didnt sell' either...
ebay.com link: KISS LIMITED EDITION PINBALL FROM STERN JOIN THE KISS ARMY
Or maybe a WWE LE is more up your ally?
Or aerosmith?
How about XMEN?
How far back should we go?
Quoted from wayout440:Keep going - back to the 90's
You want to go back DECADES?
Lol. Welp, I guess we all kind of live in the past here....
Quoted from wayout440:That's just because my price range of what I can afford restricts me to earlier titles.
Anyway, the point is moot. Asking prices are totally different than the actual sales prices.
If the asking prices were materially different than the selling prices then your entire point is moot.
Quoted from wayout440:I don't think so. If there is a range of acceptable negotiable price for a specific condition and title pin, and there are comparable examples listed at an exorbitantly high asking price and those sellers refuse to come down to reality those pins are held hostage by the listing and don't sell. My original point in the discussion was a response to a statement that "When the number of buyers drops the prices will also drop or the pins won’t sell", and my response to that statement is that the amount of buyers doesn't matter. The seller listing that pin and never dropping the price to ever meet the market value doesn't know nor doesn't care how many buyers there are. There could be 1, 10, 1000 buyers - doesn't matter. That's just the way I see it, my own observations and my own opinion.
A ‘buyer’ that wants to buy a TZ for $2000 is no more serious than a seller that wants to sell it for $12000.
Neither of those are really in the market.
Count what is actually being bought/sold and there’s your market.
Quoted from Schusler:I really wish that first sentence was true.
I've been in the arcade hobby for a long time. In the last five years or so, I even noticed a pricing surge and it's not only relegated to the ubiquitous titles. Even '90s Jamma stuff is creeping up in price. I would venture the Barcade scene or the overseas interest growing.
In the mid '90s... I do agree the console scene "caught up" with the arcade technology but even today... I don't believe it still has affected the pricing.
Yep. Prices for arcade games has been creeping up over the last decade for sure. Some titles have doubled or tripled.
Beyond that there are plenty of old pins are still highly valuable even though they’ve been eclipsed many times over from a technology standpoint.
Playing battlezone in an original cabinet will always be better than playing it on an emulated system.
Quoted from wayout440:Well, there you go...just like I said before. Throwing it out there at an exorbitant price fishing for a sucker.
Every market has ‘make me sell’ sellers/offers.
What’s your point?
Quoted from wayout440:I thought I made my point clear in post #967. The amount of buyers does not affect the price. Someone said it does. Someone said if there are less buyers then the price would have to drop. I'm saying quantity of buyers doesn't matter.
Using your own example if ten people buy the game at prices between $6K and 7K that's the market value, correct? Now if that quantity of buyers drops to 5 buyers between $6 and 7K, does the market value change? Do the folks priced higher drop their prices? No, they don't....at least in my observations.
Number of buyers sets the demand so yes, it matters. Alot.
Especially when there are items of a fixed quantity (machines now out of production) but that’s now introducing scarcity which involves number of sellers.
Including people listing at ‘make me sell’ prices isn’t a meaningful way to asses any market. Including pins.
Quoted from cosmicjim:It might not make sense, but in a way he is right. Economic theory teaches us prices are sticky. These prices stick until the owners die and the estate has to liquidate. In cases of the large collectibles crashes, there are 3 primary reasons; increase in supply vs number of collectors, actual death of collectors, and failed speculation.
Pin prices have been sticky only in that they haven’t, for decades, responded to general swings in the economy.
Dozens, maybe hundreds, of pins are bought/sold every day. There is a market out there that functions as it should. Relatively freely and with a high level of transparency (xmission, eBay and pinside for example).
Just because someone wants a certain pin and the only buyers he can find want to sell at a higher price than he wants to pay doesn’t prove otherwise.
Quoted from wayout440:Well, I dunno. All the games I am interested are not made any more, fixed quantity as you say. When they pop up, they have a price - and I could care less if you call that a "make me sell" price or not...they are fixed prices with no negotiation down into the reality range of what I would consider the market value. They are not adjusting price up or down with any correlation to the number of buyers (I'm going out on a limb assuming the number of potential buyers changes week to week) If they were interested in selling the game, I would expect they would adjust the price down to meet the upper end of this pool of buyers and sell the game, but they sit. That's the reality of the market.
That’s correct. They aren’t really in the market to sell. Unless someone wants to throw FU money at them.
If your house can likely sell for $500k and your list it for $3M, you’re not a real seller nor are you impacting the sales data for the local market.
Quoted from cosmicjim:Nothing in this post is contrary to the economic principle of sticky prices.
Perhaps. But then again price stickiness wasn’t particularly relevant to the discussion at the moment so...
Quoted from wayout440:A high level of transparency? LMAO. Tell everyone what I paid for my pins in my collection and how much I sold 11 of them for. There are no records, and I'm just one small collector. One title I was looking at on eBay had three "best offer accepted" strikeouts. There's next to nothing for sale transparency, This is one of the major hurdles of pricing pins.
On the secondary market you are right. Kind of.
Xmission and eBay are easy to glean prices from. Maybe not prices us cheapskates like to use but prices nonetheless.
I do think it’s completely bizarre when people take the price out of a FS thread once it sells.
Quoted from Whysnow:The myth of eBay prices is just confirmation bias.
Many operate solely on confirmation bias these days. Remember, if its negative news, its 'fake news'! Facts be damned if my 'instinct' says otherwise!
Quoted from Whysnow:sure, but that data is worthless since pinball machines are bought and sold based on individual titles.
I guess in general it is a nice round number to show pinball machines as a whole have held steady with inflation?
Everything except for commodities are sold on an individual basis. That doesn't mean that you cant distinguish pricing trends in an overall, non commodity market.
Quoted from Friengineer:This.
This.
This.
Plus regular economics. When the economy starts to stall and all of the "new" money people in pinball go away then interest will wane.
Plus, a lot of folks are preordering and selling their spots for profit before getting a game. Pure speculation play. Pinball pricing is complicated.
I don't think pinball prices will plummet. I think they'll normalize. The market for $8000 to $12000 pinball is going to get crushed. Prices will normalize back down to $4K to $5K when the shit hits the fan. Financing and money won't be cheap forever. Everyone but Stern will probably go under. That's a more realistic view on things IMO.
There’s no evidence that prices declined during the last recession.
Quoted from cosmicjim:The 2008 Recession was a finance recession. House building and automotive were about the only American sectors hit really hard that wasn’t just people’s computer money. It affected the average citizen’s retirement money more than day to day spending. The service and entertainment sectors didn’t crash. People use 2008 as evidence the economy can’t touch pinball, but that is absurd. That being said, crap really has to hit the fan, and not just Wall Street and high level execs cashing out and tanking everyone’s 401ks. Popularity will affect prices before the economy does, and popularity seems to still be having a resurgence.
Huh? The 2008 recession was LITERALLY the worst economic downturn since the 1930’s. If you don’t think that was the textbook definition of ‘hitting the fan’ then we had very different economics professors and textbooks. Any economic downturn is going to impact how discretionary income is spent and the impact of a reduction in retirement savings or housing value has a proven impact on how people spend.
As mentioned before, popularity and ‘fun factor’ Are already priced into a titles value. There’s a reason raven is priced at what it is vs other pins from that era.
Quoted from pezpunk:it's not about being on either side of the debate. it's about being annoyed by a conversation that has been going on for more than a decade, with "experts" showing up monthly to impart their genius insights into how supply and demand work and make comparison number 2304891347 to comic books, classic cars, or jukeboxes.
Exhausting isnt it? Remember Fred Further?
Quoted from BrianBannon:Really? I picked up a number of bargains in that time period, mostly in late 2008 into early 2009. Games that were generally priced well under their historical bottom. Some people were hit pretty hard and needed to move their toys to free up some cash. Of course, this is just anecdotal evidence. Keep in mind that there were not many new offerings then either. Stern game runs during 2009-10 were relatively low volume, too. If anyone truly believes that a general recession won't impact pinball prices...well, just don't bet the house on it.
There are very few things that are recession proof and pinball games are no different. I dont doubt there were some deals to be had here and there. The point is that if we didn't see prices, across the board, 'plummet' during the largest economic downturn since the 1930's, then its unlikely a future recession would create a different outcome...Let alone prices plummeting without a massive economic downturn because something something barcades.
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