Wow. I've never met a Canadian snob before. Nope, not a matter of not being able to afford. Simply a matter of hoping for a crash to get them for less.

I just turned 39 and I've been in the hobby 5 years. I make well into the six figures a year and am disgusted with the cost of these stupid light boxes. I remember when I said I'd never pay over 6k for a pin. Sad that I'm feeling more & more priced out of the market now. I welcome a major market correction.

That is funny! My theory is that pinball is an addiction not a hobby.

With as many as I've bought & traded over the past few years I'd definitely have to agree. Maybe it's time to get addicted to something else....

A few interest rate rises in Australia will affect that quite dramatically.

Household debt to income level ratio highest in the developed world.

A lot of new buyers in their 40's who aren't considering how much of a money pit these machines can be.

Keep the pin or meet this month's mortgage repayment?

You ain't making enough money, anymore, man.

Here is Stern's new market:

http://robbreport.com/art-collectibles/experts-advice-collecting-everything-including-real-estate-qa/page/0/1

"Michael Bruno has always had an eye for great design and a knack for thinking big. His love of architecture and grand old houses led him to obtain a real estate license when he was 19, and after a lucrative career as a broker for Sotheby’s,

"My displays will be static for a while, but often with a new season, a weather change, I want a different look or a new mood. Lately I’ve been buying pinball machines, which are in my guesthouse. I like lighthearted things that are a little bit nostalgic."

Pinball is a great addiction. No other addiction do you get 80% of your money back! I have stressful employment and find that pinball really helps to control my stress levels. It is like meditation or sex as the game forces your mind to concentrate on one thing only.

Much of the new generation of players might not be buyers right now, as time goes on and they look for different hobbies and have more income I predict many will want the games they used to play in the barcades or want a game because of friend has one. I was a Chucky Cheese and Circus Circus kid. I never really played the pinball's as they were three times the money as video games and couldn't afford it on my allowance. Fast forward 25 years and I started collecting/playing pinball machines. I've bought and sold 15 in two years and have introduced 3 friends to pinball and they've bought 5 between them in the last year. That's twenty machines originating from(8 nib) from one guy that wasn't into it when he was younger. I guess one never knows where the future will take them.

As long as the delta between buying new and selling used isn't more than 10%-15% or so, I will keep going. Having said that we are surpassing that point on many games. You make some interesting points in your original post, but I don't think the market is going to correct anytime soon, unless the economy does. Pinball is cyclical and we are in a high point and things will correct at some point. I believe the barcades of today will give birth to many of the collectors of tomorrow.

let me think about this and get back to you. New subject requires new thinking.........

No question. Will affect all discretionary spending and given the level of borrowing, will only take a small increase in rates.

It's the top end used and nib that will be hit hardest. The lower - mid priced games won't be affected too much.

Well all I know is that I'm 46 and I grew up playing video games. Only 8 years ago did I start playing pinball. So I'm guessing kids today who play video games will in the future discover pinball for themselves as I did.

Keep your collection in pristine condition. It's not our generation dying that will lower prices or interest in the hobby, it's the pinball games themselves that are vulnerable as the decades move on.

Yeah I guess you're right, that was a gross overstatement on my part. There are no monocultures anymore and I don't think it can ever get to that level again, just as no band will ever be as big as the Beatles again...
That being said, my point was that some people are saying the market's been steadily going up for 20 years as support that it will keep growing. That's saying it's been growing since the last time it recessed, that doesn't mean it's going to keep growing forever.

That being said, again I don't see a plummet because of the intrinsic value of pinball, but there will certainly be a correction at some point in the future and a recession when the pinball trend has come and gone where only the cream of the crop games keep most of their value and the rest have a harder time finding buyers.
Now is that a good or bad thing, mostly good for most collectors I would think, just stating what I would think is a plausible scenario.

Good! Y'all can get out. Supply will go up, demand will go down and so will the prices. 6k for a pin! LMAO, that buys me 6 nice pins!

Hey @g0nz0,
seems you've really struck a nerve with some people here.
Plenty of members have a lots of money tied up in their collections so discussing the *possibility* of falling prices may be too close to the bone for some. They might get in trouble with their wives or whatnot.
So don't feel bad if you're getting attacked for bringing that up, it's nothing personal.

I don't have a crystal ball either but things *can* go south quickly.

Calling the kettle black!!

I spent 15 years waiting for pinball prices to drop before I bought my first one. Guess what never happened, not even for a moment?

Not saying the future won't be different, but history certainly can't illuminate this path.....

I make 6 figures a year. Last year I made 2 Abraham Lincolns, 3 WOZ witches, and 1 Beezleboob. I'm still broke.

The prices will go down for 80"s & 90"s pins. Just like the EMs of yesteryear, you can count on it, $400 to $1,000 machines. So sell them bastards while you can.

That won't happen until there's some new innovation.

Look at the differences in playfields between 1987 and 1992. It was night and day. Fast forward another 25 years, and Stern has done absolutely nothing to push the envelope or develop new technology. Until someone (JJP?) comes up with a real game changer, prices on 90's machines aren't going anywhere but up.

And I'm probably going to. I think what we both consider to be "nice pins" are on completely different ends of the spectrum.

Prices aren't going down anytime soon. Pinball is in a sweet spot right now. retro while still be fun. Appealing to both young and old. Collecting and competing are both surging in popularity. Unlike old video games the new technology has not surpassed where we were in the 90's. Yes improvements have been made but those older machines were built rock solid compared to today's games, and with updated rule sets appearing more and more every day, the older machines will still stay relevant for years to come. And despite what many in this thread contend, the 80's and 90's kids aren't dying off anytime soon.

There is no shortage of guys (and gals....ok mostly guys ) around the world with plenty of money and desiring an awesome man-cave. They will continue to pump up the new market, as the new machines are a blast to play and many do not want any repair problems. The new machines will take a small hit in value, but they are certainly bringing up the value of the older machines as well.

Many of the collectors I know all started with one machine and somehow they fill every available space. There is a desperate shortage of supply in my area, and any machines that get listed are gone within minutes or hours if they are priced anywhere near pinside prices. Pinside prices are also one of the driving factors to prices going up. It takes a LOT of research to correctly price the market for any given machine right now. Pinside seems to be the go to price guide at the moment. And the faster the pinside prices rise the more it feeds the pinflation. Supply of the older machines isn't increasing, but demand sure is.

If that's what you limit yourself to. The entire population of those that believe they can only live in the narrow focus of modern pinball can vanish along with those newest and A-list games, and they'll still be a pinball hobby made of those that enjoy EMs and early solid state. We'll all be here happily chuggin' along, you can count on it.

trends show very clearly that the high end pinball world is slowing/dropping (over 5k new games)

they show very clearly that the low end and middle pinball world (EMs, early SS, B rate DMDs) are all continuing up.

Reality is that over the past 7? years they entry price point for new people is on average 2-3k. Over time we have seen previous $700 games creep up to 1500, 1500 creep to 2500, 2500 creep to 3500+.

The only thing that has changed is what game is the new entry level game. If anything Sys11, Gottielb sys80 and 3, and classic Bally games have continued to rise in price as they have become the new entry level.

Yes, I choose to limit myself to the best in all facets of life.

Where's fred (frank?) further...Wasnt the crash going to happen a decade ago?

If prices raising is regional then you can't say that ALL vids prices are rising.

I just checked CL around here and there is still a ton of vids under a thousand. Pac-Man $700. Cruis'n $500. Blitz $700. The list goes on and on.

Source?

Hate to say it but pins are still inexpensive relative to other collectibles - go check out prices of what folks pay for graded sports cards and comics, cars, comic book art, guitars, autographs, game worn sports uniforms or movie props.

If you want to make a good comparison go see what $8000 will buy you and see how close you can get to top level items within each of those collectibles. Chances are $8000 will not even get you in the door for an upper tier desirable item. I really think an $8000 ridicously priced pin is more fun to own than what $8000 will get you for any item from the list above. On the lower priced side I think a $1000 Firepower is a lot more fun than any $1000 item from the items above also.

If you think we have it bad you can make yourself feel better by looking around at other hobbies and collectibles lawns. Ours is pretty green. Even though prices are ridiculous!

People spend multi-thousand dollars on sporting events each year. :shrug:

You've missed the point.

Most here couldn't care less what prices do. We love pinball. If prices plummet, we get to buy more pins.

Beyond that, people are snarky because the prediction of the 'bubble bursting' is a rite of passage for most new pin guys when they get upset that they cant afford all of the pins they want. Think of it as the denial stage of the addiction.

I started collecting a decade ago and back then people were CONVINCED the 'end was near'. And well...Here we are. $15K NIB sterns that sell out immediately and 20 somethings with access to more on location pins than I ever was...Creating their own nostalgic memories to fuel home purchases when they are old enough to afford them.

You're forgetting about a magical place known as Bear Country.

You still don't understand it.

No you don't.

Stern's quality has gone to crap with ghosting playfields, cabinets that split, and cost cutting that has gone so far as to impact the quality of the product they put out. I stopped buying NIB from them because of these crap quality issues. No need to avoid it, they still make fun games.

This whole thing is the absolutely best hyperbole I ever read.

Do most people wish some pins were more affordable? Definitely. Do some people think prices are high on certain titles? Sure.

Not quite. Predicting a big price crash simply doesn't line up with reality. That's why people were disagreeing with your thoughts about prices and market projections in your first post.

UGH!

He's right where he needs to be. Not here.

After reading this entire thread, I will say ya I wish prices were lower.

As a younger pinhead (just turned 30) I am just starting out and have bought two EM's at low prices off of CL. It took time to find machines I think I would enjoy and that are in my price range. It even took learning how to fix a totally not working machine by reading the various how to guides around here.

Never really played pinball as a kid (other than a few games of FishTales at the local supper club), just kind of stumbled onto pinball by accident. The only thing I really agree on in this entire thread is, buy what you enjoy. If you won't enjoy something for X ammount of money, well then don't buy it. If it goes up or down in price in the future, well that's life.

But in the end, I just assume pinball is like most hobbies for people with not much extra money laying around. Start small and slow. Then over time grow, meet people, get some deals, and simply enjoy what you are doing.

dude there is a difference between what people want to happen and what people think will happen. furthermore, you are insulting anyone who disagrees with you by accusing them of having selfish motives, while you yourself talk about how you wish pin prices would move downwards (itself a selfish motive).

and on top of that, there is a difference between an educated opinion and an opinion that has been proposed and debunked a thousand times before.

people who disagree with you aren't automatically "trolls and haters".

The topic that underlies a lot of this and other discussions is that as prices rise, you have collectors that can afford the new pins and those that have been priced out of the market. A lot of what people consider A list titles (90's B/W) came when production was limited. Those games in a lot of cases have been restored and the combination of scarcity and restoration allow them to command a higher price. Rich guys want these pieces as trophies while people priced out of the market and want those games are upset. It happens in every hobby. From my own experience, I see prices rising and that is not going to change. In my case, I am trying to decide if I want to go spend the money on a nice ToM (my favorite game from back in the day) or take that same money and buy something NIB like Houdini.

Just remember: Whether you are a rich guy or priced out of the market, neither side is "right" or "wrong". You just have different motivations and priorities.

Please refrain from making so much sense please!! That is not an acceptable attitude in the thread!!

Was this sarcasm? I couldn't tell because it was so_ well_ said_.

Keep that up sparky, because sarcasm usually works out really well for people in online forums.

Are you being sarcastic ?

^^^^^LOL

It's funny that you are on here sniveling about the reaction of your obvious trolling post. Heck it started out with a disclaimer. The truth is that you were looking for exactly what you are crying about. Personal attacks, You yourself made quite a few in this thread. "Next time I will just keep my topics all unicorn farts and pixie dust." Maybe you should since you seem to not be able to take what you dish out.

I'm not trying to upset you nor do I think you have any plan. Just pointing out that your prediction is common among new collectors and none of them have come true.

And most importantly, if the market does plummet, most of us (including me) would be elated.

WOW!! OK! When we attend shows like PAGG/CALEX,here in NorCal,look at the ages!! All ages!! Grandpa's showing grandkids how to play! Dads with young daughters kicking ass in youth Tourneys!Yes,Ems are old,but they show where we came from!!The EM room at PAGG is usually full!!Prices do fluctuate,as the economy goes! Just have fun!!peace!!!!

https://pinside.com/pinball/market/classifieds/archive

just pay attention... not real tough to see. If you really need some specific examples of high $$$ games not selling as quickly and for less than they did 12 months, 6months, 3months ago... then just take a little effort to go see for yourself.

I'd advise against that approach.

Marcus