(Topic ID: 188515)

Why I feel Pinball Prices Are Going To Plummet...

By g0nz0

6 years ago


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  • Latest reply 3 months ago by dung
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    Topic poll

    “Will Pinball Prices Drop Hard Over The Next Ten Years?”

    • Definitely 137 votes
      19%
    • Not a Chance 283 votes
      39%
    • The Future Is Uncertain 298 votes
      42%

    (718 votes)

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    There are 1,066 posts in this topic. You are on page 8 of 22.
    #351 6 years ago
    Quoted from SUPERBEE:

    I agree, but in my day (im a child of the 80`s) , only chicks played Mrs Pacman.

    Touche. Most ladies round here were more partial to Tetris...and then later Klax; jesus that game was tough

    #352 6 years ago
    Quoted from dmbjunky:

    Console games are crazy and not in a good way. I refuse to pay $5.00 a cartridge for crappy NES games like Double Dribble. It used to be fun to buy video games but not anymore.
    I haven't noticed an upswing in arcade vids either. I'm sure there's a small natural raising of prices but nothing drastic. Everything around here is still less than a thousand most days.

    I'm not talking about commons like a Konami Double Dribble, we are talking rare games, same with Arcade Cabs - Dedicateds...In the Northeast the prices have skyrocketed; I'm not talking about crappy conversions or 60-1's. True dedicateds in great condition...That's just like comparing a routed players pin to a HUO/Fully restored, etc...

    12
    #353 6 years ago
    Quoted from thewolks:

    So how much was a Flintstones in 2007 and how much is it now, I would consider this a cheaper one, but is it?
    In 2007 I saw them for $1,100-$1,500, now $4-5K. I purchased mine for $2,200 in 2013
    And where are you concluding that "If people are buying the cheaper ones and skipping over the shiny ones then that will also cause the over priced shiny ones to fall in price. Because demand will drop" I haven't seen this drop in demand and yet all the cheaper titles are being bought up, in fact the cheaper 90's DMD titles are going up! How much is Hook? Lethal Weapon 3? Tales from the Crypt? today!
    Don't get me wrong, I too wish the prices were not what they are, but the reality is......they are. I don't like paying what the demand is, but remember it is your money (in my case my money) and you may choose to do with it as you will.
    Value is relative to what someone is willing to pay... and so is a perceived deal, if you feel you got a good deal on a game are you wrong because someone would not think it was a good deal? Ones own perception is reality.
    Just keep looking, hopefully you find what your looking for and I hope you get a good deal, in the end who really cares what anyone else thinks, just buy what you like and play it, enjoy it and have fun!

    I don't believe Flinstones are anywhere near $4k yet.

    #354 6 years ago
    Quoted from Pinballlew:

    I don't believe Flinstones are anywhere near $4k yet.

    It's a lot more popular than you'd think for being basically a 300lbs circus peanut; but agreed 4K isn't realistic. It doesn't top 3K (from actual sellers).

    #355 6 years ago

    Is pinball trendy? I think when PBR has its own machine made, you can say it is. You see it popping up in TV ads, barcades popping up too, etc. Does trend affect prices? I would think it does, a lot.
    Is the trend going to taper off at some point? Yes it will, like all trends.

    However, pinball has an intrinsic value that a lot of trends don't. They're not Beanie Babies, they'll never be worth 0. They're fun to play (most of them are), nice to look at (most of them are), they'll always have that americana appeal (most of them will), and there's a new generation that is being turned on to them.

    From being the coolest thing in the world in the 70's, pinball hit a huge slump in the late 90's, and now it's creeping back up again to near 70's level of popularity.
    The best A and B titles are not going back to 2000$, but I would think when the trend tapers off, the market will get a correction, and I think at some point you might have a hard time selling off those Super LEs for anything close you got them for, and some of those crappier DMDs that are selling at crazy prices (I've seen SFII's advertised for >2k over here) may go back to eyesores sitting unplayed and unsold in basements at some point, while the good machines retain good value to the collector core which will be unaffected by the trends.

    (I like to do disclaimers in these controversial topics: I've been in the hobby for about 6 years, was I affected by said trend, probably to some extent, and I think the PBR machine looks cool as hell )

    #356 6 years ago

    If prices ever tanked, I'd start buying more machines. If they go up, I'd buy less. I think many other collectors would do the same thing keeping prices about the same.

    #357 6 years ago

    who cares, this is a hobby not stamp collecting or investing in gold coins.

    As someone said, if prices go down I buy more. Prices go up I buy less. When I die my kids either get a little extra cash or some pinball games.

    #358 6 years ago
    Quoted from dsmoke1986:

    Well, you missed out on the 2k AFM from 10 years ago,

    AFM was NOT $2k in 2007 unless the game in question was at the bottom of a lake.

    #359 6 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    who cares, this is a hobby not stamp collecting or investing in gold coins.
    As someone said, if prices go down I buy more. Prices go up I buy less. When I die my kids either get a little extra cash or some pinball games.

    Bingo!!!!

    #360 6 years ago

    Regarding SLE price that's dumb money.

    I know some will give me thumbs down, but the value is just not there.

    Those who bought (likely) said it's just 80 of a kind so it'll go up.

    That's assbackwards because it's just another run of the mill good Stern pin. It's not a milestone anything like Action Comics #1 which is both rare *and* significant (first appearance of Superman)

    BM66 SLE is not signicant and not a $15K pin unless you consider foil decals to add $5000 in value and a signed trading card to add another $1000

    #361 6 years ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I know some will give me thumbs down, but the value is just not there.
    Those who bought (likely) said it's just 80 of a kind so it'll go up.

    I bought GOT & there are a lot of people that make 3 times as much as I do per year & paying 3 times as much for a SLE just isn't as big of a deal to them as it is me.
    I don't think that points to them treating games as an investment.

    #362 6 years ago
    Quoted from jwilson:

    That cargument about brass-age cars is bogus. The problem with those things is they're barely drivable on today's roads - you certainly couldn't use one as a daily driver.

    Funny, I know a couple of guys who use Model T's as daily drivers 8 months out of the year. Other makes are a little tougher to DD due to parts availability. And they are quite drivable... I have taken one of mine on highway trips, at normal highway speeds. I won't be passing anyone, and I have to leave more braking distance, but they are very drivable.

    #363 6 years ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    When you're single, your pockets jingle

    That's complete horseshit...I kick back on xbox all day with a cold beer and buy pins with my wife's commission checks...

    #364 6 years ago
    Quoted from RandomGuyOffCL:

    .I kick back on xbox all day with a cold beer and buy pins with my wife's commission checks...

    Epic !!!

    #365 6 years ago

    the op might be right, i mean look at just this weekends allentown pinshow. not so big right?

    #366 6 years ago
    Quoted from Rascal_H:

    This guy is having such a good time

    Such a great picture. See the look the little girl is giving him? Priceless.

    #367 6 years ago

    Why is it every time someone writes a silly thread like this, it's a part time collector with 1 B game?

    Supply and demand...and many, many more people growing their collection than there are shrinking their collection.

    #368 6 years ago

    Cheers!

    1494283367637 (resized).jpg1494283367637 (resized).jpg

    11
    #369 6 years ago

    Gotta love the guy that stresses that this thread is just his opinion but when someone disagrees with his opinion he becomes butt hurt and starts to argue about why he is right and you are wrong. " Hey! Respect my opinion but your opinion is wrong!" LOL..classic

    #370 6 years ago
    Quoted from RandomGuyOffCL:

    That's complete horseshit...I kick back on xbox all day with a cold beer and buy pins with my wife's commission checks...

    I prefer the Kubota SVL90-2 over the Xbox any day. It's reality, with joysticks, plus I make about $35-50 an hour depending on the job.

    #371 6 years ago
    Quoted from TxJay:

    Gotta love the guy that stresses that this thread is just his opinion but when someone disagrees with his opinion he becomes butt hurt and starts to argue about why he is right and you are wrong. " Hey! Respect my opinion but your opinion is wrong!" LOL..classic

    My favorite part was when he redefined "example" to mean "thing I just made up that would totally support my point if it were true, which of course it's not."

    George Carlin said it best: "The next time some asshole says to you, 'I have a right to my opinion,' you say, 'Oh yeah? Well, I have a right to my opinion, and my opinion is that you have no right to your opinion.' Then shoot the fuck and walk away."

    #372 6 years ago
    Quoted from ejg10532626:

    Why is it every time someone writes a silly thread like this, it's a part time collector with 1 B game?
    Supply and demand...and many, many more people growing their collection than there are shrinking their collection.

    I have 11 machines. None are new, but I have TAF and BSD. I think his arguments have merit, but I don't completely agree either.

    Supply and demand is always king.
    The difference between pinball and video games is we are dealing in much lower volume. Most machines are thousands and even hundreds in volume. Games are thousands and tens of thousands and even millions.

    Another factor in demand is that a pinball machine is fancy furniture. A mansion or lake house seems like a great place for a decorative pinball machine. This sustains prices because of low volumes.
    I do think there might end up a glut of machines because of the output over the last 5 years. This could result in stern pros in the 3k range. I also think the least desirable dmds could sink some.

    #373 6 years ago
    Quoted from cosmicjim:

    I have 11 machines. None are new, but I have TAF and BSD. I think his arguments have merit, but I don't completely agree either.
    Supply and demand is always king.
    The difference between pinball and video games is we are dealing in much lower volume. Most machines are thousands and even hundreds in volume. Games are thousands and tens of thousands and even millions.
    Another factor in demand is that a pinball machine is fancy furniture. A mansion or lake house seems like a great place for a decorative pinball machine. This sustains prices because of low volumes.
    I do think there might end up a glut of machines because of the output over the last 5 years. This could result in stern pros in the 3k range. I also think the least desirable dmds could sink some.

    Video games can be easily copied, therefore have no intrinsic value. I play pinball because its a physical object, not a digital experience. Cannot be copied.

    #374 6 years ago
    Quoted from Electrocute:

    It's reality, with joysticks,

    I play with my joystick almost daily...

    #375 6 years ago
    Quoted from cosmicjim:

    I think his arguments have merit, but I don't completely agree either.

    I totally agree !!

    #376 6 years ago
    Quoted from cosmicjim:

    I also think the least desirable dmds could sink some.

    Can someone say WWF ?

    #377 6 years ago

    That's true but seemingly has no affect on the rarest of collectibles. That's why video games produced in the 10s of thousands will probably eventually sink in value, but a truly rare game that can be emulated will retain value. The same for comics and baseball cards. Truly rare and desirable items rise in value while the rest sink when the primary aged males age out of the spectrum.

    Edit - this was supposed to be quoting kzmicpinball's post.

    #378 6 years ago

    Honestly this is no different than a discussion between a Bull & Bear when it comes to the stock market. He makes alot of valid points in his original post. I probably fit the mold of the current pinball collector in the 49-59 year range and as we age there is no doubt we start to think about retirement.....the kids are out of college and your priorities change with regards to things like Health Care. Lets face it when we all hit retirement age we need to look for supplemental health insurance to cover that 20% that Medicare won't cover. It's not a cheap expense but it's a necessary expense.

    I can see the pinball market slowing down in 5-10 years as the current target market ages and draws closer to retirement. I never looked at this hobby as an investment....and I have recently purchased two NIB Pins. I don't expect to get my money back on this stuff.....but I still think as long as I take excellent care of the pins I will be able to get a 70% of my money back. In the meantime I'll just enjoy them because they are a blast to play.

    I will touch on this he made mention of the desire for retro games with regards to consoles....I have a very nice collection of console arcade games from Atari 2600 - PlayStation and it's all MINT....I have several NIB console games that I have been offered several thousand dollars for each of them.....won't sell them......but I am thinking about because I feel that market is starting to reach it's peak....possibly in a year or two. I estimate my retro game collection in the range of $250,000 possibly more with over 1200 titles all in original boxes....many still sealed....including many rare games that were in very limited quantities.

    #379 6 years ago

    ok:
    you start with a strong feeling. 1: you give no evidence to support prices going up too high too fast. 2: end of an era: you say most pinball players are 40+ and give no evidence to support that either. I know loads of pinball fans that are under 40, oh and btw the current world champion is a lot under 40! 3: I agree with you that there is less demand as an impression, but when you see a top quality EM they don't tend to be cheap. 4: The demand is going to drop eventually? -no evidence -most people that I know that have pinball machines that they got "cheap" where not cheap to them, and most of them don't want to sell them for fear they could never own them again. 5: I hear the opposite. I put my Star Trek:TNG into my office to raise money for charity and its encouraged a few young players to buy machines. 6: nonsense, there are several machines that I want but I've not found at the right quality. but again no evidence for your point. is the world going to stop making money and economies generally growing? If thats true then the last thing we will be worrying about is the price of a pinball machine! 7: again much to my amazement I would have thought that would be true also, but I know several players who won't touch the remakes, or put LEDs in their machines or buy colorDMDs. I personally think they are mental but they like the originals as they are.

    Neil.

    Quoted from g0nz0:

    I have a very strong feeling that sometime in the next 5-10 years pin prices are going to dramatically drop.
    Now I am sure a lot of you are reading this and thinking.... "dude, I just sold my Monster Bash for 15k.. you're an idiot". But the fact that you just sold it for that much makes me lean more towards yes. Let me explain why I believe this is most certain. Here are the reasons I feel it will happen (and please remember this is just my "opinion" and if you feel the opposite there is no need to name call etc. I know that anyone who jist spent 10k on a pin doesn't want to accept this reality, but don't take it personal. If you do feel different please explain your reasoning. I would love to hear it.
    1. Too high. Too fast.
    I've seen pin prices over the past 20 years bounce a bit. Mainly going up with inflation. But in past 10 years prices have surpassed normal increases. Some A titles have literally doubled yearly and what was once a "hard to giveaway" machine is now a "hard to get under 8k". I believe prices have just gone too high waayy too fast!
    2. The end of an era.
    I think most of us here all know that the pinball era did in fact die. Mainly in the 90's. I am 41 and I saw this with my own two eyes. I watch less and less pins in the arcade then. And the ones I saw no one was playing. Even I myself was not much of a pin player. I was attracted to the Street Fighters and Mortal Kombats. As was everyone else. The Adams family just sit there all alone. Or you saw 2 people over in that section.
    Now why is this relevant? Well I personally believe most people become pin owners between the age of 40-60. At 40 we all want to relive our past and finally have the disposable income to make this a reality. But guess what... the 30s crowd now in 10 years won't have a pinball memory to even remember. Because I watched the arcades die. So the next 40 year old crowd are the xbox and playstation generation.
    So I personally see demand dropping rapidly in new buyers.
    3. Look at prices of each type of pin.
    EM's were once hot, now they are dirt cheap. Why? Because those who grew up playing those are up there in age and passing away slowly and not many left want them. At the moment 90s pins are on fire because they are the ones WE grew up playing. So we are hitting the last era. The DMD era.
    4. Supply and Demand.
    The demand is going to drop eventually. And supply doesn't seem to be a problem. I see 50 A titles a day pop up for sale. And I am sure a lot of you see more. They are not hard to find. Because people are paying so much currently that those who got them a decade ago cheap are cashing in big flipping them.
    But those buying now.. well I see a loss in the future if held too long.
    5. New generation of players.
    Sure, there seems to be this surge of new pin interest. These "Bar-cades" popping up and new young folk are playing. But sadly the prices are running them off. I've personally heard so many saying "I could get a car for that much". So this new group of people (that we need badly to help regrow things) have no interest in buying one. The only people paying these prices are deep pocket older folks who are paying for the nostalgia.
    If you have no childhood memories, you aren't going to spend 8k on a machine.
    6. Pockets are full.
    All those deep pocket (I gotta have it) folk are getting their fill. And soon they will no longer be buying once they get what they want. And... eventually taking huge loses on their collection of I am correct in my prediction. All hobbies have a surge. Suckers come in, the hobbies dies down and that is that. Vinyl had a surge. Retro consoles are surging but will soon fall.
    7. Remakes.
    8k for NIB or decades of wear and tear. Sure we all love original but playfield sadly take beatings.
    So.... what is your opinion? I'll attach a poll as well.
    Do you see it continuing to get out of control? Or do you see an economic bubble bursting soon and pin prices collapsing?

    #380 6 years ago
    Quoted from Electrocute:

    I prefer the Kubota SVL90-2 over the Xbox any day. It's reality, with joysticks, plus I make about $35-50 an hour depending on the job.

    I've got kubota in my backyard somewhere...but nobody pays me to play with it

    6587360A- (resized).jpg6587360A- (resized).jpg

    #381 6 years ago
    Quoted from RandomGuyOffCL:

    I've got kubota in my backyard somewhere...but nobody pays me to play with it

    I hear ya ! I got my wife in the backyard somewhere also. And no one plays with her either !

    #382 6 years ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    You know how many times I have heard that. And do you not realizes what you said further proves me point?
    If people can't afford the new ones, and they only buy "what they can afford" then that mean less buyers are buying the "expensive" ones. Which means the price will drop when no one is buying them.
    This topic isn't about only buying expensive machine. It is about why I feel overprice machines will drop in price.
    We all know you can buy cheapers pins, that has nothing to do with my topic.
    And I don't mean that to sound rude, just trying to explain why I posted this topic.

    He didn't say "If people can't afford" he said if "you can't afford". Huge difference. This hobby has all kinds and virtually every income level...but the people buying one NIB after another are not "average" when it comes to income. People buying one NIB after another are well above 100k...most are probably north of 250k.

    When I started out I was in my mid thirties and had two young kids...with and average income. My first machine was a $500 F-14 Tomcat that needed work. MM or MB were not even on my radar.

    #383 6 years ago

    As a new person, creating threads like this is a rite of passage. I've done it, and maybe you've done it too.

    After this, we'll see 'What game should I buy' followed intuitively by 'What A-title encapsulates me as a person.'

    #384 6 years ago

    I don't know if prices will continue to skyrocket, climb slowly, hold steady, fall slowly, or crash. But I'll go on the record as saying that I'm hoping for a big, fat CRASH!! When you're currently a looker instead of owner, you definitely shouldn't be on the side of the owners. Lord knows that they're not going to come down for you just to be nice.

    #385 6 years ago
    Quoted from Mudflaps:

    As a new person, creating threads like this is a rite of passage. I've done it, and maybe you've done it too.
    After this, we'll see 'What game should I buy' followed intuitively by 'What A-title encapsulates me as a person.'

    I will eagerly await the "Stern to release Tron VE soon?"

    #386 6 years ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    I don't know if prices will continue to skyrocket, climb slowly, hold steady, fall slowly, or crash. But I'll go on the record as saying that I'm hoping for a big, fat CRASH!! When you're currently a looker instead of owner, you definitely shouldn't be on the side of the owners. Lord knows that they're not going to come down for you just to be nice.

    Maybe you should find a hobby that you can afford ? Just sayin....

    #387 6 years ago
    Quoted from Stones:

    I will eagerly await the "Stern to release Tron VE soon?"

    Grab some wood there bub...I hear he's got a rock solid plan to fix the top 100 thread. "Now the problems YOU people have been doing are...."

    #388 6 years ago
    Quoted from SUPERBEE:

    Maybe you should find a hobby that you can afford ? Just sayin....

    "Most" people can afford this hobby.....but not if you're only interested in A-listers or NIBs.

    #389 6 years ago
    Quoted from TheLaw:

    Grab some wood there bub...I hear he's got a rock solid plan to fix the top 100 thread. "Now the problems YOU people have been doing are...."

    1a6c93c71aefe2b524e8a40ec27a0800e7f0f49ff8d71545dff2c9235f099771 (resized).jpg1a6c93c71aefe2b524e8a40ec27a0800e7f0f49ff8d71545dff2c9235f099771 (resized).jpg

    #390 6 years ago
    Quoted from Astropin:

    "Most" people can afford this hobby.....but not if you're only interested in A-listers or NIBs.

    I agree. Lots of affordable pins out there beyond A list but thats not what he/she said.

    #391 6 years ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    I think barcades are going to be the next "escape room" trend.

    I think they will introduce a lot of new faces into the industry which is a good thing. But I just don't know how long they will stick around. I don't know how many of them will decide to become a home owner of a pin either, and I don't know how many will be willing to pay current prices (on new machine or expensive titles).

    I skimmed much of this thread. I would normally read it, but honestly it makes no difference to me. I buy and collect the games I personally like. I am totally fine paying whatever the current market is.

    I decided to comment to provide a little real world experience. Myself and 2 good buddies have put our personal collection out on route in Madison, WI. We dont have a barcade in the traditional sense, but we have over 30 pins out around town. Everything from EMs, early SS, classic 90s DMD, newer Sterns, Aliens, and Hobbit. In other words a full assortment and variety from all the eras. All types get play and bring in all types of players. On a weekly basis I get directly contacted at least once from a totally new to pinball person looking for assistance on buying a game. Of those people ~50% will end up buying a brand new game for 6-9k. The other 50% are looking for a classic B/W for 3k.

    In short, there is a HUGE conversion of totally new players that walk in a barcade or pinball bar, and walk out to go buy their own first machine. They spend between 3 and 9k in my experience. The # of these people has only gone and continues to go up.

    #392 6 years ago
    Quoted from RandomGuyOffCL:

    I've got kubota in my backyard somewhere...but nobody pays me to play with it

    #393 6 years ago
    Quoted from vid1900:

    I went to a garage sale in my neighborhood of a guy I had always hated, and had suddenly died.
    His wife was selling all his $$$$ astronomy eyepieces for $5 each.
    "He said they were $10 each new, so I figured they were worth $5 used - since I'm throwing in the case..."
    That logic made sense to me, I took them all.
    (never lie to your wife what something costs, or she'll sell everything for half of that if you die)

    wow

    #394 6 years ago
    Quoted from PhilGreg:

    From being the coolest thing in the world in the 70's, pinball hit a huge slump in the late 90's, and now it's creeping back up again to near 70's level of popularity.

    Uh, no. Not even close. Need to sell about 100,000 more games in a year to be even remotely close, like 10x what they're probably selling now. Only thing that's increased is home ownership.

    #395 6 years ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Uh, no. Not even close. Need to sell about 100,000 more games in a year to be even remotely close, like 10x what they're probably selling now. Only thing that's increased is home ownership.

    I was thinking the same thing.....

    #396 6 years ago

    Support for prices increasing
    1. Higher demand
    2. Trendy
    3. Expensive technology in newer machines

    Support for prices decreasing or leveling
    1. More supply (Stern's increased capacity and new manufacturers who have entered the market)
    2. Price ceiling. I think we are getting close.
    3. Continued quality issues at Stern- drives loss in market share and they are forced to reduce price to maintain.

    #397 6 years ago
    Quoted from cantbfrank:

    Support for prices increasing
    1. Higher demand
    2. Trendy
    3. Expensive technology in newer machines
    Support for prices decreasing or leveling
    1. More supply (Stern's increased capacity and new manufacturers who have entered the market)
    2. Price ceiling. I think we are getting close.
    3. Continued quality issues at Stern- drives loss in market share and they are forced to reduce price to maintain.

    Don't forget asset inflation. Can't call it real inflation anymore apparently.

    #398 6 years ago
    Quoted from OLDPINGUY:

    Hmmmm...I predict some prices will go down and some prices will go up!
    Now what do I win?

    Bring the smoking baby back Art. Puts a smile on my face every time I see you post.

    #399 6 years ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Uh, no. Not even close. Need to sell about 100,000 more games in a year to be even remotely close, like 10x what they're probably selling now. Only thing that's increased is home ownership.

    Exactly. Hell, look on IPDB for the 70's. Every time a game is released now it is a giant deal here and takes years. All three major manufacturers were releasing new games like every two-three months back then like nobody's business. Probably more titles in 4 years than this Stern has ever done. Yeah, there's a lot more involved (debateably) and I'm not bashing Stern/JJP, but just comparing.

    #400 6 years ago

    And so ends one of the strangest days of my pinball related life, where I found myself agreeing almost 100% with everything PEZ and that Crazy guy said.

    Still shaking my head in awe.

    Yep. One more shake. Getting dizzy

    There are 1,066 posts in this topic. You are on page 8 of 22.

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