sure, but that data is worthless since pinball machines are bought and sold based on individual titles.

I guess in general it is a nice round number to show pinball machines as a whole have held steady with inflation?

Why I feel Pinball Prices Are Going To Plummet...

Sure... Any minute now.

Everything except for commodities are sold on an individual basis. That doesn't mean that you cant distinguish pricing trends in an overall, non commodity market.

Tonights perusal of the "Usual Sources" for machines made me change my mind.
Prices are going to plummet. Sellers are going to be motivated, hard-up.
The cracks are beginning to show.

I’m just not sure if this is a sarcastic post or not lol. Curse you internet!!!!!!! Lol.

If it’s not I’d like to hear about these “cracks”

This guy gets it...

I'm not following. Care to elaborate?

There is going to be a distinct difference between 90s games and newer sterns.And to go even further I think there's going to be a difference between Sterns pre-2010 and 2010 to present. 2010 is where they went all in on the making multiple versions of the same game. I'm looking forward to see what happens to the value of games like the Sopranos, CSI, and 24. There's going to be an oversaturation of the newest games, because at some point barcades will stagnate or run out of space and all of the music and superhero pins filling the barcades up will have to be moved. The ones running out of space will have to either sell older pins or stop buying newer pins.

The people who want the market to crash only have confirmation bias to draw their conclusions from. I don't get why any Pinsider would want to see the pinball market in decline, but it sure seems like there are a lot of people on here with a secret wish for disaster. I guess because they want to pick up the hot deals if it happens? What other motives are there? Whatever it is, it's not objective.

There really is a lot of data that the market is growing, yet no one wants to talk about it. It's weird. I'll pay attention when someone presents actual data supporting a decline.

Perhaps this is just me, but every time I check this thread I think it should be "Why I THINK pinball prices are going to plummet."

Just to clarify, I’m not a sky is falling guy. I just like microeconomics. The comment I made about the over saturation of new games was meant to highlight that those games will be different economically than older sterns, and not to say that prices are just going to plummet. In the end it goes back to earlier comments that each game will have its own economy. WWE will be different than AC/DC.

Each game already HAS its own economy. Junkyard and Medieval Madness are both 90s DMD games and look pretty similar. One is generally sub-3K and the other generally over 8K, despite selling for the same price originally. And JY was produced in fewer quantities and did not get re-made.

The economy we're seeing is pricing games on how FUN they are. Hobbit, GOT, RZ, GB are judged to be just not that fun and the prices dropped. Meanwhile, Dialed In seems to be selling pretty well, even at close to 10K, because people think it's fun.

Yes, That’s exactly what I mean. I was just typing the way the I talk. I was in future tense mode because I was still thinking about future releases in the equation.

Prices will fall when people lose interest in pinball. Being that this thread is up to 21 pages long now it does not look like anybody is losing interest in pinball. And as prices of new games continue to rise, prices on the used market will also continue to rise. Especially when the older games are of such a higher build quality than the new ones from a major manufacturer.

This.

This.

This.

Plus regular economics. When the economy starts to stall and all of the "new" money people in pinball go away then interest will wane.

Plus, a lot of folks are preordering and selling their spots for profit before getting a game. Pure speculation play. Pinball pricing is complicated.

I don't think pinball prices will plummet. I think they'll normalize. The market for $8000 to $12000 pinball is going to get crushed. Prices will normalize back down to $4K to $5K when the shit hits the fan. Financing and money won't be cheap forever. Everyone but Stern will probably go under. That's a more realistic view on things IMO.

id love to see prices come down a little so I can buy more and better machines. What I don’t want to see is an economic collapse that would affect my ability to purchase those same pins. I suspect most people that have little would like to see a downward adjustment. Whereas those with sizable collections would like to see the market appreciate. Both are natural feelings and positions. As has been said many times before, the pins ability to resist downturns will come down to fun and rarity. I see pinballs popularity maintaining as the kids of generation x grow up and remember their parents waxing fondly of pinball. Gen x being the last generation to see original arcades and pincades in the golden age. After another 20- 30 I don’t know. Depends how good of a job we do recreating those memories for the next generation. Right now, the market has aged to where it has disposable income, thus we have seen increases in prices. I see these increases continuing for the next 10-15 yrs, leveling, and falling in 20 yrs. Of course by then titles like Metallica will be an oldie but goodie The wildcard is China, what happens when made in America is a just a memory? If China starts spitting out mm remakes for 2500 nib, all bets will be off.

There’s no evidence that prices declined during the last recession.

I'm saving for my attack from Mars or remake. After that I have about ten games I would like. I will be buying many of these games in the next five years, If I'm lucky...

And a home.

The 2008 Recession was a finance recession. House building and automotive were about the only American sectors hit really hard that wasn’t just people’s computer money. It affected the average citizen’s retirement money more than day to day spending. The service and entertainment sectors didn’t crash. People use 2008 as evidence the economy can’t touch pinball, but that is absurd. That being said, crap really has to hit the fan, and not just Wall Street and high level execs cashing out and tanking everyone’s 401ks. Popularity will affect prices before the economy does, and popularity seems to still be having a resurgence.

I wonder if analogies to classic cars would apply here. I don't know enough, about classic cars to comment. But I will?

Classic cars seem kind of like pinball.

The other day I saw a corvair, it reminded when I was young you got a stingray. Not a corvair. Now. The corvair looks pretty good.

Strangely it's like pinball. But not every hobby enjoys these features and benefits.

image (resized).jpeg

I’m sure it’s very similar. What makes pinball a little different is that most machines are used for business at the beginning of their life.

I really hope it does, these over the top 6000 USD prices (atleast here in Europe, one guy even had a shopped Centaur out for sale for 5600 USD :rolleyes for a dang used pinball feels like a wet blanket over the hobby, only the super rich can touch something nice.

Depends on your definition of nice. Here is a nice restored Old Chicago. $1250 on Ebay

s-l1600 (resized).jpg

Well, here in Sweden, EM's go for at most 400 USD (regardless of condition, they are simply not as popular, and only a few/handful hobbyists like myself would put in work to save/restore one) and "unpopular" 70's/80's pins like you posted (usually) dont go over the 800-1000 USD level, while "popular" late 80's and 90's pins go for astronomical numbers, due to smaller market and fewer games.

For example, going by own games and the prices ive seen them go for/had them priced for here it would look like this.

Williams Jungle Lord = 1075 USD nice condition/fully working.
Gottlieb Arena = 1433 USD nice condition/fully working
Williams Grand Lizard =1194 USD nice condition/fully working
Sonic Segasa Gamatron =955 USD nice condition/fully working
Premier Stargate = 1792 USD nice condition/fully working

Now my games are not exactly in nice condition in the cabinet area (usual wear on the artwork etc) and Stargate have a worn playfield, so some of the pricing would probably have to be adjusted lower if i sell.

Huh? The 2008 recession was LITERALLY the worst economic downturn since the 1930’s. If you don’t think that was the textbook definition of ‘hitting the fan’ then we had very different economics professors and textbooks. Any economic downturn is going to impact how discretionary income is spent and the impact of a reduction in retirement savings or housing value has a proven impact on how people spend.

As mentioned before, popularity and ‘fun factor’ Are already priced into a titles value. There’s a reason raven is priced at what it is vs other pins from that era.

Not in the USA

Wow, everyone so upset at the idea prices might fall.

Sunday Evening Price Plummet Bump!

I think it's more a desire to talk about facts rather than speculation.

My WH20 is worth $54 less than when this thread was started..

I think it's more that people are exhausted by the topic, which has been coming up apparently for over a decade. After a while it starts to sound like the tabloids that keep predicting the end of the world year after year.

Fair enough. It's all speculation on either side of the debate. But surely there's not a lot of upside on prices? Whilst I agree "Plummet" is probably a bit harsh, I definitely think NIB buyers of all colours (Le, premium, pro) will take a bit more of a bath on resale going forward.

It seems like the naysayers are basing their conclusions mostly on individual experience and their biases.

There's plenty of actual, independent data suggesting the market is growing. That's not speculation.

I agree that the price for new pins is volatile. The data shows nearly every NIB buyer will lose money on that purchase if held over the long term.

So maybe there are really two discussions here: 1) The overall pinball market, and 2) the market for relatively new pins.

There are legitimate concerns over durability of the new games. I'm concerned with the Spike system and wonder if I will ever get a Spike game by Stern

The sky is falling....the sky is falling!!!! OMG, what are we all going to do?????

Your avatar matches your post.

I think you mean the sky is "plummeting".

As you are saying others are basing their conclusions on individual experience and biases, you might want to sight that independent data in a footnote somewhere. Otherwise it sounds like you're basing it on opinion and making up numbers.

He said only the super rich can afford something nice. I pointed out a very nice condition pin that you don't have to be super rich to afford.

Don't worry about it. Thousands of other games out there...... THOUSANDS.

I was talking more about the newer sterns, even the "old" 2000's games are held up high in the price ranges here, limiting on who buys them, so either so save up 3-4 month salary and buy or stay "stuck" in the 80's era (which stay in,lots to explore,and more enjoyable too)

I'd be a happy man if new in box prices fell back to 2012-2013 pricing. This is the stuff of fiction though.

Ready for the BOGO deals on pins - bring on the downfall!

it's not about being on either side of the debate. it's about being annoyed by a conversation that has been going on for more than a decade, with "experts" showing up monthly to impart their genius insights into how supply and demand work and make comparison number 23048913470 to comic books, classic cars, or jukeboxes.

Exhausting isnt it? Remember Fred Further?

I still, like talking about it. Even though it has been done exhaustively.

Pinball...

Really? I picked up a number of bargains in that time period, mostly in late 2008 into early 2009. Games that were generally priced well under their historical bottom. Some people were hit pretty hard and needed to move their toys to free up some cash. Of course, this is just anecdotal evidence. Keep in mind that there were not many new offerings then either. Stern game runs during 2009-10 were relatively low volume, too. If anyone truly believes that a general recession won't impact pinball prices...well, just don't bet the house on it.

There are very few things that are recession proof and pinball games are no different. I dont doubt there were some deals to be had here and there. The point is that if we didn't see prices, across the board, 'plummet' during the largest economic downturn since the 1930's, then its unlikely a future recession would create a different outcome...Let alone prices plummeting without a massive economic downturn because something something barcades.

With one internet site (pinside)
advertising that they have 29,000 +
for sale ads to read . . .
I think you may find one you can afford.
(or try a different site)

They my plummet but they will bounce back just like housing did.

bounce (resized).jpg