"90% chance of 50% loss within our lifetime"

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The comics market was overrun by speculators, and the publishers of the day capitalized on the interest by putting out multiple special edition covers for otherwise underwhelming stories. Maybe a Death of Superman WITH an unopened bag. But then that's valuable because of its rarity; even that event was sort of forced and even now not beloved throughout the community.

Anyway my point is, comics are pieces of paper and hold no intrinsic value other than the interest because of a moment in time, and maybe the Silver Age stuff I grew up reading because of its nostalgia. Pinball is a game which actually DOES something, can make money - and it's value is much more obvious

As a non-believer in "intrinsic value," I found this to be an interesting read:
https://fee.org/articles/the-fallacy-of-intrinsic-value/

"If people value something, it has value; if people do not value some­thing, it does not have value; and there is no intrinsic about it."

Which model and how do you like it? The wife desperately wants a 3.

Once driverless cars start intercommunicating, the resultant hive mind will surveil the other cars with drivers, recording and reporting their transgressions so that aberrant drivers will be quickly identified and dealt with, and the remaining self-driving drivers who can behave themselves will be safer as well.

The point being self-driving cars will be in the majority but it won't be necessary to outlaw manual driving cars. Just won't always be much fun driving them, and the difference in insurance cost will be large.

Can you even tell a self driver to speed? I imagine you have to take over, too much liability otherwise. Or will they speed by themselves if that's what all the traffic around is doing?

Further off topic: Did you know that you forfeit any right of way you would have had if you are speeding? The statutes here in Wisconsin read like that, anyway. Unsure whether this is strictly adhered to in practice.

Did you know speedometers are deliberately miscalibrated to over-report your speed? This to shield manufacturers from any lawsuits or regulatory fines from tolerance errors causing speeds to be under-reported.

I can't tell if this is the start of a riddle, or if you're the title character in the 500 Glocks of Bartholomew Cubbins.

But we should probably keep gun policy discussion off of Pinside as it never ends well and will only further convince the Europeans, Canadians and Aussies that we're morons.

Model S P100D and it's one of the best decisions i've ever made. i love it to pieces. a year later and i still make excuses to run to the store or pick up carry-out!

on the Tesla, you tell it how many MPH over the speed limit you want it to drive.

What's the fastest you've had it self-drive at?

I am not familiar with that character however the Austrians make a fine firearm.

I am not discussing gun laws at all, it was merely to push across a point that in this country some things will not be given up. Driving a car would be equally compared to owning a gun. If you think the out cry over gun regulation is loud could you imagine the people of America being told they cannot drive a car????

We should probably also keep in mind that economic theory is simply that; “theory.” If it were law there would never be a debate.

Furthermore, I am not too terribly worried of the opinions that other generalize about Americans. I am not ALL Americans. If someone else wants to classify ALL Americans into one category then that is their prerogative. However, that is quite a shallow conclusion to make. If I am a moron then I guess I am moron lol. I will lose no sleep.

self-driving? +15.

It's a Dr. Seuss classic!

500 Hats

Sorry, I did not mean to suggest you are a moron, but I see how it could have read that way. I meant that Americans seem like morons to the rest of the world since we're talking/arguing about guns all the time.

Lol you didn’t offend me at all. I also didn’t take it that you were calling me a moron by any means. I don’t argue politics with anyone so you have no worries. But you get my point about guns being the equivalent of cars right? I know where I live at least(it’s where most of the morons are lol) neither would go away easily. And before that gets out of context I absolutely love Kentucky. I just mean we have a ludicrous number of rednecks per capita here lol

I don't think pinball prices will fall.

I think my 80s arcade games will fall in price when the 80s kids all start kicking the bucket.

But pinball is "americana", it's like classic jukeboxes and 50s cadillacs, the appeal is across the board

when i have a party, EVERYONE plays the pins, young people, old people, everyone

I don't think 90s williams pins are expensive because of nostalgia

are you nostalgic about playing CV? or TAF?

I played space shuttle and high speed back in my arcade days, I never heard of most of the high end collector games

how many people have teary eyed nostalgia about playing 90s pins?

i have a circus voltaire, i guess it's worth $7,000. maybe, you tell me.

you're saying that someday it will only be worth $1000? or $500

because the 438 people who actually played CV in the 90s will die off?

don't hold your breath waiting for the price of 1971 hemi cuda convertables to come down as the boomers die off

“Plum crazy purple”

Yes I said that in a joe dirt voice in case anyone was wondering

Culturally, sure, but I think the Second Amendment (as currently interpreted by the courts, anyway) is a huge difference there. Anyway, maybe DanQverymuch has it right, they'll allow you to keep driving but it'll suck so much driving in a sea of drones that people will stop doing it? Will be interesting to see how it plays out. If I'm right, I'll be alive to witness the transition!

80s arcade prices went into the toilet... fueled in part by the rise of MAME and Multi-cade boards. But even those prices are 2-3x what they were 7+ years ago.

I'm convinced both hobbies are being floated by the same generational influx... I don't think the pin hobby today is floated by the guys who carried it in the 90s. I just don't know if it will cycle back down... it seems hard to believe a hobby explodes like this and never retreats... especially one with lots of commitment to keep it active (repairs, space, etc).

I must be such a dinosaur already at 43. I actually really like driving and I hate cell phones.

Well I hope it never happens. I love to drive. Not like racing or “cool” cars or anything like that. I just love to drive. It’s peaceful. I’ll drive all across the country to get a pin and love every second of it. It’s my time to think lol

The value of 1935 Rockola Army Navy has been inversely proportional to the population of persons alive who ever played one on location. Today, they fetch Big Bang Bar level dollars and a few have eclipsed Magic Girl price tags.

Examples of this phenomenon can be found in fifties woodrails as well (e.g. Mermaid).

I follow the advice to collect what I like and to respect the principle that the most extraordinary games of each era and genre, available in scarce numbers, tend to rise in value over time. The prewar and woodrail games are a better barometer of future trends than carguments, in my view. We need not venture into other hobbies to find empirical evidence. The data is found within the hobby, in the forefathers of Twilight Zone, and in the ancestors of Dialed In.

I also love to drive. I've driven all over the country, and I've enjoyed every mile. During the eclipse recently I drove down to Tennessee to get the best view.

And I'm ready for a robot to take the wheel. One of the days driving back from Tennessee I sat in 11 hours of traffic. All of that traffic would just go away if every car was self-driving and communicated. Just sit at a stop light right now, and watch how long it takes for people to react to the change. With self drive, nobody would even be sitting. Cars could go through the intersection in a coordinated fashion. They could just go up a highway. If a lane was closed the car could simply slow by 2 mph and merge the lanes. Same thing at onramps. I could get to work in less than half the time, and we could instantly triple the volume a highway could handle. If it was close to capacity alternate routes would just happen to get you there the fastest.

Yeah, I'm ready for self-driving cars.

can someone please let me know when the prices are going to plummet? I have a few more games I would like to buy

I really miss Congo and whitewater but I’m not giving 5k for them so put me on the list too.

Less than 72 months.

GET READY!!!!

So how much are we talking then. I just want my Congo and whitewater back... in 72 months what will that set me back

Enough with all this car chit-chat! Now, on to self-playing pinball machines...

I’m drawing the line there

The OP clarified his definition of 'plummeting' as a ~10% drop I believe.

Every single day, I marvel how those in line don't watch the light, they wait until the car in front of them starts moving (and it seems like they only notice that peripherally while staring at their phones) and then react, often taking their sweet time getting to speed. Especially at left turn arrows, why should they care about the cars behind them as long as they make it?

Frickin' flocks of birds are more intelligent, everyone turns when the lead bird does.

people who dawdle at left turn arrows deserve death.

That might be a little extreme, but no doubt they have caused deaths, by making those behind them upset and more likely to cheat and turn left anyway after the arrow changes, while the cross road was clear and someone else comes barreling through just as their light turns green.

Not often enough to lower pin prices, though... (trying to get back on topic)

The game changer will probably be in the next 5 to 10 years, with the way the internet is going eventually the latency will get down fast enough that you'll be able to play a game remotely. So camera mounted above the screen with button signals sent over the internet. What does this mean? Well it means that you could route games from your own basement, you could play all your favorite games from home, etc. When that technology gets good enough (it'll never be perfect) I could see that being a disruptive force. Like if I could play the newest sterns from my house remotely I totally would. It's coming....

Actually, we've all been waiting for some of yours.

LTG : )

Interesting. Or maybe a virtual cab with a 4K/3D monitor displays and plays a 'real' pinball game remotely so you get real physics etc along with the feel of a cabinet.

Very un-pezpunk like...

Cars are driving themselves, people are flying drones long distances away from their house, it's only a matter of time before games like pinball become remote. I don't know how it will affect the market though. But the game changer I could see is:

people could route games from their homes
people wouldn't necessarily have to have games in their homes anymore, they could play remotely and do zero maintenance
people could play in tournaments remotely, increasing revenue and attendance
probably would hurt location play the same way Uber has hurt taxi services

The 'shaking' thing is probably the hardest thing that would be missing. But in an all remote tourney where everyone is on equal footing with no shaking it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal, it would just be a sharpshooters tourney.

Sorry, the Internet is not about to break the rules of the universe. The biggest factor in latency on slow links today is literally the speed of light and propagation in mediums. We already have sub 10ms latency on most domestic connections.. and low congestion is already in the 4-5ms latency. Which is already at the speeds games play at.

Latency isn't going to get much better... throughput will.

...except that by then it probably won't be a cab and monitor. It will be a VR helmet, or glasses, or some tech not even thought of yet.

Or a complete room ala holodeck

Evidently you live in the internet mecca, out here in the midwest you aren't going to get anywhere near 4-5ms. Until that gets solved I can't see it becoming a thing. You need:

low latency
high bandwidth

Those are currently spotty in the US. Like you might be able to make it work in some cities now but only for that city and not city to city probably. I'm not talking about breaking the rules of the universe, lol, I know about the speed of light.

Rember 10 years ago you wouldn't pay for a cellphone if it cost 1k. Today you will pay 1k for a phone and not bat an eye. Its simple economics in a free market. Aslong as you will buy my machine for X amount then i will sell it for no less than X. You wont buy it, someone else will for X. So why would i ever charge less. Theres no predicting this stuff its not like houses. As long as you can go to a barcade and play, the desire will he there. Barcades, craft beer etc,aren't going anywhere. Prices will only increase or hold to new game value

Point being... breakthroughs in latency aren't pending... and where we have low latency... this remote playing isn't happening. So waiting for that crossover point... you might not want to hold your breath

Apparently in 2005.

I see over priced Retail games languish forever.
I find loser machines for sale, by that I mean non-desirable Titles, crumbs, off-brands.
I see NO projects for sale where the criteria is:
All (or mostly) the parts are there
The back glass is reasonable
Price is reasonable.
People seem to have settled on 1495.00 as the "right price". Working,not working, if it is on 4 legs, EM or SS, 1495.00 is the going price.
I doubt prices will plummet for the short term. Everything is in collections, worth collecting. Excellent restorations on poor machines, we have seen many here.
The price plummets on the dregs. Value loss restorations on player machines with an unpopular Title.

Reading this just scrambled my brain.

Prices will not drop the number of collectors will. Many are being priced out of not only NIB used prices have gotten silly as well

What he said

Wrong, that’s not how supply and demand works. When the number of buyers drops the prices will also drop or the pins won’t sell. The only reason the prices have risen to where they are is the increased demand.

I had a lot of success with buying/selling games this year. The one that hurt the most was Ghostbusters Premium. Slowly declining the number of pins in the house. The "got to play again" games like Tron, Metallica or Acdc. The lack thereof of fun, hard code is making me decline in the hobby.

I met a guy here - who exited the hobby a few years ago.

He used to restore games but the lack of viable husks of decent pinball ultimately drove him out.

He switched to cars.

It got me thinking about dead pinball.

I'm rambling.

I think restoration in general is pretty cool. Cars and pinball. Homes. The world.

Rambling...