(Topic ID: 188515)

Why I feel Pinball Prices Are Going To Plummet...


By g0nz0

2 years ago



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  • 1,053 posts
  • 254 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 2 years ago by ypurchn
  • Topic is favorited by 7 Pinsiders

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    Topic poll

    “Will Pinball Prices Drop Hard Over The Next Ten Years?”

    • Definitely 136 votes
      20%
    • Not a Chance 267 votes
      39%
    • The Future Is Uncertain 289 votes
      42%

    (692 votes)

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    There are 1053 posts in this topic. You are on page 18 of 22.
    #851 2 years ago
    Quoted from Monster_Bash:

    Not sure I understand. 3-4 years ago I was picking Pacs of CL for $100 that were sitting. Now they are 600-800 for beaters
    Arcade game in the last 5 years are through the roof.

    what i posted was copied from a post made in 2005 predicting that pinball prices would crash very soon and anyone who disagreed was "delusional". we've had market wizards and expert accountants proclaiming the "inevitable" crash was obviously right around the corner literally every single year since.

    #852 2 years ago
    Quoted from Monster_Bash:

    Not sure I understand. 3-4 years ago I was picking Pacs of CL for $100 that were sitting. Now they are 600-800 for beaters
    Arcade game in the last 5 years are through the roof.

    It's because arcades/barcades are a fad right now with the 20 somethings. Wait until they hit their 30's...

    #853 2 years ago
    Quoted from pezpunk:

    uh nope. don't agree at all. the only games that have gone down are the ones that have been remade or are about to be remade. (MM, AFM, MB)

    you're going to be waiting a LONG time for a 30%-40% downturn.

    I think a lot of people are upset that the pins they bought NIB aren’t worth what they paid for them NIB when they go to sell them two weeks later. Once the box is open the price has to go down. Right? Lol.

    #854 2 years ago
    Quoted from jmountjoy111:

    I think a lot of people are upset that the pins they bought NIB aren’t worth what they paid for them NIB when they go to sell them two weeks later. Once the box is open the price has to go down. Right? Lol.

    oh wait they're talking about NIB pins? hahaha.

    #855 2 years ago
    Quoted from pezpunk:

    JKirby wrote:
    >Does anyone see the price bubble bursting any time soon?
    Oh yeah, without a doubt. Anyone that tells you otherwise is delusional.
    Take a look at Ms. PacMan prices 3-5 years ago.
    Then take a look at them today. Maybe 40%.
    Pinball is no different. As the people that are interested in them start dying off, the prices will bottom out to the "cool, neat weird thing to have in the house as a conversation piece" which seems to be around $500 today.
    Frankly, with about 100 exceptions, the majority of pinball prices are already hovering around that $500 mark.
    [this message posted to rec.games.pinball more than 12 years ago, on September 8th, 2005]

    This was the post of the year! Great story, and then a huge twist at the end! Well done.

    #856 2 years ago
    Quoted from ZNET:

    I agree with the general observation that an aging marketplace of likely buyers fuels a downward price trend. It's axiomatic that prices are proportional to demand. The model train market is another such example.
    Nevertheless, my view is that the pinball hobby is more complex than the vintage pocket watch hobby, for example. This is because pinball enthusiasts do not merely collect machines. Many enthusiasts enjoy the restoration aspect, both technological and artistic. The social feature of pinball, both in home collections and in tournament locales cannot be overlooked. The multidimensional attraction offered by pinball (and arcade games, for that matter) is what compels me to conclude that pinball is here to stay, with ordinary popularity peaks and valleys.
    Pinball enjoys an Americana sensibility which has denizens of fans worldwide. Arguably, pinball as a hobby occupies a unique cultural niche which is firmly entrenched in the American psyche. Well, that's my opinion. . .others will surely disagree.
    Pocket watches, which are as much an item of fashion as a timepiece, tend to sit in drawers or in display boxes. Their utility was long ago supplanted by wrist watches and cellphones. Moreover, they have lost their fashion cache. Consequently, younger generations have no pocket watch life experience rooted in their memories. In contrast, kids of a new generation are growing up in households with substantial pinball collections. While many such kids will eschew pinball for their Xbox games, many others will wish to revisit their childhood memories when they too have disposable income.
    Apart from the generational influences upon all hobbies, the primary point of my post is that intrinsic aspects of pinball coupled with multiple "attract modes" to the hobby itself transcend that singular factor.

    This guy gets my vote for “head of pinside pinball prose and grammar”

    #857 2 years ago
    Quoted from pezpunk:

    oh wait they're talking about NIB pins? hahaha.

    I see those ads all the time. “I just bought this met pro for $5800. Only 200 plays. I’d like to get $5799.”

    Box is opened. Game is played. Price has dropped. Five years ago these same people bought up the le games and sat on them to make a profit. It doesn’t seem to be working that way any more. But what the heck do I know. I’m too cheap to buy a new game. I only buy broken ones lol

    #858 2 years ago
    Quoted from gunstarhero:

    It's because arcades/barcades are a fad right now with the 20 somethings. Wait until they hit their 30's...

    Agreed.

    Once they have more money and move out of apartments and into houses (with basements) they will probably drive prices up.

    #859 2 years ago

    Hey could the prices please go ahead and plummet? I have my eye on a couple games

    #860 2 years ago

    Like everything desirable they will ultimately end up in the hands of those that can afford them. Imo, the price increases are a direct result of pin manufacturers bringing out high priced machines. If they continue to do this, and is accepted by those buying, the prices will continue to rise for them all. Where the cut off point would be is anyone's guess, but i'm very sure the manufacturers are fully aware of the numbers. An interesting development would be if/when a pin maker decides to drop prices all of a sudden.

    #861 2 years ago
    Quoted from Russo121:

    Imo, the price increases are a direct result of pin manufacturers bringing out high priced machines.

    A controversial stance, to be sure, but I respect you for taking it.

    #862 2 years ago

    You can not compare the decline of value attributed to arcade games to pinball machines . Arcade games are worth almost nothing excluding the very few classic games because the home video games have surpassed them in graphics and everything else . You will never be able to truly compare a VP to a real pinball machine. Pinball machines are truly one of the last mechanical products still being produced.
    The demand for older games will continue to increase as more and more people get involved with the hobby. There is also no way to replace a machine that is destroyed accidentally without taking it out of the finite supply of games that are no longer being produced. The more people that get into the hobby, the higher the prices will go for the games no longer available new. There will never be a crash as there was in the arcade market. Up until Jersey Jack started making machines, it had been a very long time since anyone but Stern was building new pinball machines . Now there are half a dozen if not more companies that make new pinball machines . Demand is growing, the number of hobbyists is growing, and the amount of flippers is growing; all of which will lead to higher prices moving forward.
    There is no way that you will see a crash in the pinball market within the next 10 years, if ever. If I had more money to play with, I would absolutely buy up every pinball machine deal that i could find and hold them as long as possible. Pinball collecting is one of the few hobbies where you have a real chance to gain value over time. I am speaking about buying older DMD machines and the classics, not brand new in the box machines, which will generally take quite a while to increase in value . There are always the exceptions, but most new games pretty much lose at most 10-15% of their value within the first 3 years. That is not bad at all...
    Manny

    #863 2 years ago

    Agree with Manny. There's not going to be an across the board crash...ever. A huge percentage of pinball machine history is no longer manufactured, getting harder and harder to find outside of the collector market every year. There might be some dips here and there with certain titles, but I doubt there will ever be a complete landslide outside of the normal economic swings that affect all collectables.

    #864 2 years ago
    Quoted from Manny10:

    The demand for older games will continue.
    There will never be a crash as there was in the arcade market.
    Demand is growing, the number of hobbyists is growing, and the amount of flippers is growing.
    There is no way that you will see a crash in the pinball market within the next 10 years, if ever.

    crystalball.gif

    #865 2 years ago

    I recall as a kid seeing restored Model T’s going for huge dollars at auctions. Now they are some of the cheapest cars going across the block. Why? The old timers that recalled them from their youth passed on and the newer generations have no emotional ties to them.

    Fast forward to now. Late 60s/70s muscle cars shot up in value in the last decade. And now some of the more special 80s cars are rising in value.

    As it relates to 60/70s muscle cars, that is the sweet spot in the auto market and those cars will remain timeless, and hold their value better than the Model T era, across all future generations.

    I see that being the same with B/W 1990s games. They are the sweet spot when old met new and they will retain their values best moving forward in the hobby.

    #866 2 years ago
    Quoted from Blitzburgh99:

    I see that being the same with B/W 1990s games. They are the sweet spot when old met new and they will retain their values best moving forward in the hobby.

    I actually disagree with this. I have owned many of these titles. They are great, but they are starting to feel dated.

    When I see a row of 90’s B/W, vs a row of new Stern/JJP games, I’m far more drawn to the newer games. Those B/W games will always be a great piece of pinball history, like System 11. I think their value will fall, especially since they are being remade. I think they have already peaked in value, and are headed down.

    #867 2 years ago
    Quoted from Blitzburgh99:

    I recall as a kid seeing restored Model T’s going for huge dollars at auctions. Now they are some of the cheapest cars going across the block. Why? The old timers that recalled them from their youth passed on and the newer generations have no emotional ties to them.

    Reasonable logic....But...

    Quoted from Blitzburgh99:

    As it relates to 60/70s muscle cars, that is the sweet spot in the auto market and those cars will remain timeless, and hold their value better than the Model T era, across all future generations.

    Why are model T's susceptible to this but muscle cars are timeless?

    My kids wont have any interest in a non-DMD pin when they are older (barely do now) and if they do its because I have them in my basement...

    #868 2 years ago

    Shit, I should have kept my IJTPA and TOM

    #869 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    Why are model T's susceptible to this but muscle cars are timeless?

    They aren’t. I was born in the 70s, and have no interest in muscle cars. Although, I am not really into nostalgia.

    #870 2 years ago
    Quoted from Russell:

    like System 11. I think their value will fall, especially since they are being remade.

    Wait, B/W and system 11's are being remade... You mean the play fields and plastics, right? I don't follow the logic in stating that having readily available replacements parts will make those game worth less. I've found that exactly the opposite is true.

    #871 2 years ago

    some of the newer games are really good and fairly deep, fun to see the new technology and design themes.
    there are many that fall very short of a 90s b/w game IMO

    there is a reason they are at the top made of all time

    you cant beat perfection hahaha!!!

    #872 2 years ago
    Quoted from Russell:

    I actually disagree with this. I have owned many of these titles. They are great, but they are starting to feel dated.

    I chuckled at this and can only think of one overwhelming thought: I have noticed that among pinball enthusiasts a game starts to feel "dated" once owners start complaining of not having finished code.

    #873 2 years ago
    Quoted from Russell:

    I think their value will fall, especially since they are being remade. I think they have already peaked in value, and are headed down.

    you appear to be an outlier and someone that is always interested in the cult of the new (nothing wrong with that)

    Based on prices/supply/demand classics from the 80s and 90s continue to be harder to find and prices have gone up.
    At the same time the newer stuff is already coming up in larger numbers on the secondary and prices are dropping.

    What I have seen much of it that when a new title comes up, you are still getting some older/longer collectors that are cutting loose rare and nice gems from the 80s and 90s. These quickly get scooped up and then sit in new collections.

    Over time, the older collectors have parted with their non-keeper classics. Now we are seeing the newer stuff that has already lost its flavor coming on the secondary just a few years after they bought it.

    The other aspect i have seen in the hobby is many new colelctors that have no knowledge or desire to learn how to maintain games. They have focused largely on new and are now out of space. They are also cycling out stuff form 2012-15 era already in favor of chasing new titles or paying even higher prices for restored examples of classics (that they wont have to work on since restored)

    #874 2 years ago
    Quoted from snyper2099:

    Wait, B/W and system 11's are being remade... You mean the play fields and plastics, right? I don't follow the logic in stating that having readily available replacements parts will make those game worth less. I've found that exactly the opposite is true.

    Don’t take my quote out of context...

    I never said Sys 11 were being remade. But, they have remade MM and AFM, with more to come.

    I agree with what Whysnow said, except the “cult of the new” comment. Not true.

    #875 2 years ago
    Quoted from Russell:

    except the “cult of the new” comment. Not true.

    it is OK

    I like hunting down the new stuff also. My problem has been that I find 90% of Sterns feel very similar after a short time. I will eventually own a new Stern for my own collection but for now I will just play them on route (lots of them around) and then buy one I liek best in a few years off the HUO market.

    I find it funny but if I see a row of nice condition classics from the 70s-90s and a row of new stuff, I am heading over to the classics. It is rare to find a nice row of classics that play well and I can play the new stuff at 10 other spots so I dont find it to have the same appeal.

    #876 2 years ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    it is OK
    I like hunting down the new stuff also. My problem has been that I find 90% of Sterns feel very similar after a short time. I will eventually own a new Stern for my own collection but for now I will just play them on route (lots of them around) and then buy one I liek best in a few years off the HUO market.
    I find it funny but if I see a row of nice condition classics from the 70s-90s and a row of new stuff, I am heading over to the classics. It is rare to find a nice row of classics that play well and I can play the new stuff at 10 other spots so I dont find it to have the same appeal.

    My comment wasn’t new vs old. It was specially referencing 90’s B/W. I’ve just played them all so much that they’ve lost their luster. Plenty of other older games are still very fun and interesting. I play my Mars Trek way more than my Star Wars.

    #877 2 years ago

    Keep in mind..... The average value of games on pinside includes all sales. This would include project games as well. The other outlets for pricing guides also include auction sales which include large portions of broken games. The thing is, there just aren't that many projects left. Every time I pull a roached out game from an old operators dungeon it at least will get turned into a cleaned, full working, player machine which in turn drives up the overall value. As more and more projects are saved the average value from reported sales will increase and increase.

    In turn this puts these games into long term collections. That mean no more repetitive changing of hands so overall supply of certain titles begin to dry up. This also will drive average sales through the roof. So there are less games being sold and those games are of a higher quality. I probably rambled a little so hopefully my point makes some sense lol.

    #878 2 years ago

    Pinball ain't going nowhere, people still collect the 30's stuff ... I don't know anyone playing that as a kid, lol

    #879 2 years ago

    I was in a comic store the other day and I was talking about the comic market with the owner. He mentioned that there were (about 20yrs ago) rare western comic books that once cost 10's of thousands of dollars that are now under a 1000.

    The collectors at that time that cared about these books died off.

    On the other hand, no one would have thought that the comic movie craze of late would drive up the prices of some comics today.

    Basic economics will ultimately rule the day (supply and demand) and anyone who says they know the future is delusional.

    Therefore regarding the statement that pins will just always go up and up forever just because it's pinball... Don't bet (too much) on it.

    -2
    #880 2 years ago

    As long as the economy is humming along, pinball prices for the truly good games, will hold up. If (once) we take a downturn, I would not be surprised to see pinballs drop by 50%.

    #881 2 years ago
    Quoted from Davidus56:

    As long as the economy is humming along, pinball prices for the truly good games, will hold up. If (once) we take a downturn, I would not be surprised to see pinballs drop by 50%.

    Why would you think that with Pinball Machines? Didn’t happen in 2008.

    #882 2 years ago
    Quoted from Davidus56:

    As long as the economy is humming along, pinball prices for the truly good games, will hold up. If (once) we take a downturn, I would not be surprised to see pinballs drop by 50%.

    I will be sure to give you a list of games I would liek from your colleciton for 50cents on the dollar

    #883 2 years ago
    Quoted from Davidus56:

    As long as the economy is humming along, pinball prices for the truly good games, will hold up. If (once) we take a downturn, I would not be surprised to see pinballs drop by 50%.

    Between 2005 and 2010 the economy tanked by almost 7 points.

    Pinball prices continued up.

    -1
    #884 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    Between 2005 and 2010 the economy tanked by almost 7 points.
    Pinball prices continued up.

    Your forgetting in 2005 pinball prices were dirt cheap. Yes they started to slowly rise over those years. But it wasn't until after the economy got better that prices started to jump. It wasn't until 20012/2013 that we started seeing prices go up by $500 to $1000 a year.

    #885 2 years ago
    Quoted from arcademojo:

    Your forgetting in 2005 pinball prices were dirt cheap. Yes they started to slowly rise over those years. But it wasn't until after the economy got better that prices started to jump. It wasn't until 20012/2013 that we started seeing prices go up by $500 to $1000 a year.

    2005 had very solid economic growth. The material downturn didn't hit until 2008.

    So if pin prices were cheap, it had nothing to do with an economic downturn.

    Now, if pin prices 'plummeted' in 2008-2011, then maybe there's at least a correlation to investigate.

    #886 2 years ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    I agree, but you are a minority. There are not many 30 something buyers spending 8k. Not enough to sustain the influx.
    Nor do I see many coming in later.
    I was at a barcade last week. I noticed a few younger players. One was playing MM. I talked breifly to him. He said, "This is fun, I wanna get one of these". I told him the price and he said "for these olders ones over here? That's insane".
    True story.

    31 here. 18k on NIB games this year.

    #887 2 years ago
    Quoted from WyseGuy:

    31 here. 18k on NIB games this year.

    You bought a BM66????!!!

    #888 2 years ago

    Im in my 30s and spend alot on pinball....

    #889 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    You bought a BM66????!!!

    RRWOZ and HOBBIT! I was really intrigued by that Batman66, though. Glad I didn't pull that trigger...

    #890 2 years ago

    I’m 35 and spend all of my spare money on pinball.

    I will be crushed when all of the broken project games are gone and I swear to me that is why seems like is happening. I used to find broken games all day (I’m not talking about EM machines btw) and they are so much harder to find. This just increases the competition for these projects and then in turn increases the baseline cost for games.

    #891 2 years ago

    26 here and bought a nib met pro. Premium games are too much. It's all about the $/Fun ratio. Dialed in it's probably on the good end of that ratio though

    #892 2 years ago

    I started buying pins when I was about 35. by 40 I had ~10.

    #893 2 years ago
    Quoted from Blitzburgh99:

    I recall as a kid seeing restored Model T’s going for huge dollars at auctions. Now they are some of the cheapest cars going across the block.

    As it relates to 60/70s muscle cars, that is the sweet spot in the auto market and those cars will remain timeless, and hold their value better than the Model T era, across all future generations.

    The main difference is that Model Ts have questionable utility in the modern world, given their unique control systems and limited capabilities, whereas 60's cars operate essentially the same as modern cars and can be driven in regular traffic, so they have more general usability.

    Just like flipperless games are worthless, and most woodrails, but "modern" (ie. 70's EMs and up) continue to rise in value as they play similarly enough to modern games to maintain their usefulness.

    Pinball as a whole might fall out of popular favour again, like it did in the 90s. I'd say there's probably only a half dozen years left before it wans, but there will always be a core collector group.

    #894 2 years ago

    I started in my 20s and I’ve had 70 machines or so and don’t plan on slowing down. I sell “first” machines to people all the time. Most of those people come back and buy “second” machines and so on. My ten year old is better at nudging a machine than I am and he will sit and yell at Dirty Harry while he is playing it lol. I see younger and younger people enter this hobby every year. Owning a pinball machine at one time seemed like an impossibility but the reality is that now Lots and lots of people can have these things in their home. All of these things just keep adding to the overall value or cost of machines.

    #895 2 years ago
    Quoted from jwilson:

    \ I'd say there's probably only a half dozen years left before it wans, but there will always be a core collector group.

    I am so excited to start buying cheap pins in 72 months!!

    #896 2 years ago
    Quoted from jwilson:

    The main difference is that Model Ts have questionable utility in the modern world, given their unique control systems and limited capabilities, whereas 60's cars operate essentially the same as modern cars and can be driven in regular traffic, so they have more general usability.

    For now maybe. But the whole driverless car thing is coming. Within our lifetime everything currently on the road will be relegated to private tracks, which won't help the resell value on that Old '55.

    #897 2 years ago
    Quoted from fosaisu:

    For now maybe. But the whole driverless car thing is coming. Within our lifetime everything currently on the road will be relegated to private tracks, which won't help the resell value on that Old '55.

    That’s a novel idea and all but I don’t foresee a time when Americans will freely give up their freedom to “go fast” lol. They’ve been taking my guns for years and years too. I still have them.

    #898 2 years ago
    Quoted from fosaisu:

    For now maybe. But the whole driverless car thing is coming. Within our lifetime everything currently on the road will be relegated to private tracks, which won't help the resell value on that Old '55.

    Yeah, not happening in my lifetime. Self-driving tech is still decades away from being viable and even then it'll be many more decades before they outnumber regular cars. I can see gasoline engines becoming illegal except for a "vintage permit" or something in my lifetime, but not for many decades.

    ANYWAY, sorry to add a cargument.

    #899 2 years ago

    i own a Tesla but I agree it will be decades before manual driving is outlawed on normal streets.

    #900 2 years ago
    Quoted from fosaisu:

    Within our lifetime everything currently on the road will be relegated to private tracks, which won't help the resell value on that Old '55.

    Hopefully I’ll be dead before that ever happens and it’ll be my kids/grandkids problem who inherit my muscle cars.

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