Quoted from TRAMD:Replace that AFM with LOTR and you have a perfect collection IMO.
Blasphemy! The opposite of what I did...
(Topic ID: 188515)
Excessive repeat game photo posting is part of NCS, New Collector Syndrome.
The symptoms wear off after first 5-10 years or so.
New Castle, DE
Quoted from TRAMD:Replace that AFM with LOTR and you have a perfect collection IMO.
Id say replace that Hobbit with a LOTR's and you have a much better collection.
I think prices will probably drop within the next 10-20 years and agree with u. Pinball prices went up a bit in the last few years (especially with the newer pins now out) but I think we can all agree the hobby is still in a slow decline. I'm sure many of u won't agree with the last part of my last sentence but it's pretty obvious. The majority of diehard pinheads r in their 50's, 60's, or 70's and some are gradually losing interest, dying, and/or selling off their collections and the worst part is that their kids aren't that interested in the hobby. Hate to say this but there will probably be many pins for sale within the next 5-20 years which will flood the market and will lower prices drastically. This is why we kind of aren't paying $1k for a $700 pin. I'm not trying to offend anyone either and note that this is just my personal thought (and trust me I don't even want this happening). Its just a possible idea.
Quoted from Schnollms:Pinball prices went up a bit in the last few years (especially with the newer pins now out) but I think we can all agree the hobby is still in a slow decline. I'm sure many of u won't agree with the last part of my last sentence but it's pretty obvious. The majority of diehard pinheads r in their 50's, 60's, or 70's and some are gradually losing interest, dying, and/or selling off their collections and the worst part is that their kids aren't that interested in the hobby.
The aspect of ownership is not in decline, if an enthusiast has been around long enough to evaluate.
The aspect of operatorship has severely declined, and was decimated in the late 90s again.
The aspect of technical repair has significantly declined in terms of expertise for games of all eras, but particularly EMs and obtuse manufacturers such as Bell, Zaccaria, and Game Plan.
Even AGC seems like a mystery for most now.
The aspect of overseas sales and NIB sales has taken a hit over the past 2 years due to international monetary exchange.
The aspect of restoration has actually improved in the past 5 years mostly due to increased pricing, and continued production of replacement parts and PCBs.
There are cause and effects of the market.
Most collectors are currently in their 30s, 40s, and 50s based on over 30 years of observation.
A square shot of them are in their late 30s and early 40s.
Not 50s, 60s, 70s, which is referring to people that have most of the knowledge that is in some cases not being captured.
There are plenty of "wannabes" in their 20s, but many were priced out of buying machines in the past 5 years due to "new money" owners.
In the past 10 years alone the number of owners has nearly doubled.
The information was obtained through Stern marketing data that is evaluated for targeting audiences.
This is fairly significant, and not related to increases in world population for a niche industry.
Evaluations of value have to be reviewed well outside the "hot titles" or "A list" games that people so frequently discuss here.
This provides a much better assessment of the hobby overall.
More games increases were not purely an increase due to "coat tail riding".
No one needs to own over 100 machines in their 70s to be a collector, it is a mindset.
This means learning to educate themselves beyond playing pinball.
Nor do you have to have a houseful of young children to raise on pinball in order for it to survive.
The same thing was said during the "Playstation generation" which I watched in the 2000s.
The same thing was said during the age of the video game generations which occurred as early as the 1980s which I also watched.
So who really is in their 60s and up?
This point is heavily significant.
The predominance of game designers and programmers!
These skills have not yet been passed onto a new generation of industry artists.
You cannot have pinball without them, unless they all keep providing support to the industry like Steve Kordek did in his 90s.
The one thing that will drop prices is loss of interest if some part of the entertainment industry pulls millennials away from pinball and barcades. There is still an important part of games on location that drives this industry although over 80% of sales is the home market now. This is also sourced from Stern who holds over 94% of the entire market. The rest of the boutique companies are fighting for the 6% scrap.
Will pinball prices decrease?
Of course they will, as new games prices decrease with age, and most games get older or do not have replacement parts.
Older games do not consecutively offset increased value over time forever, until AFTER they baseline between 20-25 years.
Once that occurs the game prices RISE, dependent on interest, availability, and fad.
That is a revelation most new owners hold in denial as they polish their playfield glass with a diaper.
What happens when Stern brings out a VE?
Original games take a hit.
What happens when CGC brings out a remake?
Original games take a hit (for a while).
There are always a few title games that break this rule.
There are all sorts of nonsensical opinions I hear on this website from people that have not been around long enough to really know anything about areas beyond owning a few new pinball machines.
Many have barely stepped out of the player phase of being a collector.
Some think they have knowledge if they have been around since 2012 which is a drop in the industry bucket.
Knowledge is power.
VEs and remakes will correct the market. Look what happened with MM. Iron Man came down in price after the VE. Now we will see what happens with AC/DC...I think the pro is going to take it on the chin, because the new model has such a nicer playfield.
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:The aspect of ownership is not in decline, if an enthusiast has been around long enough to evaluate.
The aspect of operatorship has severely declined, and was decimated in the late 90s again.
The aspect of technical repair has significantly declined in terms of expertise for games of all eras, but particularly EMs and obtuse manufacturers such as Bell, Zaccaria, and Game Plan.
Even AGC seems like a mystery for most now.
The aspect of overseas sales and NIB sales has taken a hit over the past 2 years due to international monetary exchange.
The aspect of restoration has actually improved in the past 5 years mostly due to increased pricing, and continued production of replacement parts and PCBs.
There are cause and effects of the market.
Most collectors are currently in their 30s, 40s, and 50s based on over 30 years of observation.
A square shot of them are in their late 30s and early 40s.
Not 50s, 60s, 70s, which is referring to people that have most of the knowledge that is in some cases not being captured.
There are plenty of "wannabes" in their 20s, but many were priced out of buying machines in the past 5 years due to "new money" owners.
In the past 10 years alone the number of owners has nearly doubled.
The information was obtained through Stern marketing data that is evaluated for targeting audiences.
This is fairly significant, and not related to increases in world population for a niche industry.
Evaluations of value have to be reviewed well outside the "hot titles" or "A list" games that people so frequently discuss here.
This provides a much better assessment of the hobby overall.
More games increases were not purely an increase due to "coat tail riding".
No one needs to own over 100 machines in their 70s to be a collector, it is a mindset.
This means learning to educate themselves beyond playing pinball.
Nor do you have to have a houseful of young children to raise on pinball in order for it to survive.
The same thing was said during the "Playstation generation" which I watched in the 2000s.
The same thing was said during the age of the video game generations which occurred as early as the 1980s which I also watched.
So who really is in their 60s and up?
This point is heavily significant.
The predominance of game designers and programmers!
These skills have not yet been passed onto a new generation of industry artists.
You cannot have pinball without them, unless they all keep providing support to the industry like Steve Kordek did in his 90s.
The one thing that will drop prices is loss of interest if some part of the entertainment industry pulls millennials away from pinball and barcades. There is still an important part of games on location that drives this industry although over 80% of sales is the home market now. This is also sourced from Stern who holds over 94% of the entire market. The rest of the boutique companies are fighting for the 6% scrap.
Will pinball prices decrease?
Of course they will, as new games prices decrease with age, and most games get older or do not have replacement parts.
Older games do not consecutively offset increased value over time forever, until AFTER they baseline between 20-25 years.
Once that occurs the game prices RISE, dependent on interest, availability, and fad.
That is a revelation most new owners hold in denial as they polish their playfield glass with a diaper.
What happens when Stern brings out a VE?
Original games take a hit.
What happens when CGC brings out a remake?
Original games take a hit (for a while).
There are always a few title games that break this rule.
There are all sorts of nonsensical opinions I hear on this website from people that have not been around long enough to really know anything about areas beyond owning a few new pinball machines.
Many have barely stepped out of the player phase of being a collector.
Some think they have knowledge if they have been around since 2012 which is a drop in the industry bucket.
Knowledge is power.
What a lengthy response. I deal with EMs, not newer machines. I highly recommend checking out my "collection" on my homepage. We own 10+ pins that are all EMs but one and we buy and sell on regular basis and have been around a lot longer than 2012 and nor do we own "a few newer machines." Trust me (despite my rant) I don't give a f*ck about anyone's opinion on our business and collection which is infact thriving but as I stated earlier, that was simply one possibility on what could happen in the future and I even stated I don't want this to happen. I was also mainly referring to EMs.
Older collectors do not feel the need to promote collections either.
It fades out after a while, generally somewhere after the first 5-10 years.
In the military world this is called "dog sniffing".
This is a tip off, similar to a person's feeling to express the need to defend non-directed postings that are not personal.
Knowledge and experience is not based on the number of machines purchased or owned.
It is not even an indication except enthusiastic interest.
There are plenty of brokers that just sell them as a commodity stock for profit, but have no idea how pinball machines work.
Nor does it matter what type of machines are purchased or owned whether early EM woodrail, EM, early SS, alpha-numeric, late SS, or modern SS.
At a certain point a pinball machine is just part of a person's life whether one or one thousand.
In fact, I recommend a potential owner buys an EM rather than a SS first to learn how to appreciate maintenance and repair fundamentals.
The best thing a person can do to help the hobby is provide knowledge back and become an expert in their field.
Then pass this information onto the next generation.
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:Older collectors do not feel the need to promote collections either.
It fades out after a while, generally somewhere after the first 5-10 years.
This is a tip off, similar to a person's feeling to express the need to defend non-directed postings that are not personal.
Knowledge and experience is not based on the number of machines purchased or owned.
This is testament to many of the new owners today.
Nor does it matter what type of machines are purchased or owned whether early EM woodrail, EM, early SS, alpha-numeric, late SS, or modern SS.
At a certain point a pinball machine is just part of a person's life whether one or one thousand.
In fact I recommend a potential owner buys an EM rather than a SS first to learn how to appreciate maintenance and repair fundamentals.
The best thing a person can do to help the hobby is provide knowledge back and become an expert in their field.
I know u weren't directing your rant at anyone in particular but don't assess my knowledge/"expertise" of the industry like you even know who I am, with all due respect. I've been buying and selling pins and coinop as my second business for 53 years. Wasn't promoting my collection either; was simply showing u I'm an EM dealer/collector. So let's not complain about other collectors "knowledge" like you even know what ur talking about. Going back to square one (which I recommend we do and not complain and argue about something pointless like children), this post was about the future of the industry that we all have a passion for. Bottom line: in my opinion and with my knowledge, the prices of pins (mainly EMs) will drop within the next 20 years.
Quoted from Schnollms:I understand the modern/digital pins are in an upswing but I fear the future for EMs; mainly Gottlieb wedgeheads which are my favorite.
Although not a pure fear, there is certainly room for concern.
Many do not know how to fix EMs now (although simpler than modern games and MUCH MUCH more reliable in the long term), some due not want to learn, and many dealers for the most part will not touch them.
GTB 60s and 70s wedgies are not even the uncommon.
Not enough profit margin overall, lack of parts in some cases, and expertise.
Various backglasses not reproduced can be a real PITA as well unless a full flatbed scan is used from fellow collectors.
This drives prices down.
The good news is EMs took an upswing though in the past 5 years most due to market pricing of modern machines.
So, I would not completely fear the reaper.
Some dealers are bringing them out of warehouse not only selling them as projects, but sometimes trying to turn a dime.
This drives prices up.
There is a balance act, because EMs generally only accrue value since most bottomed out over 20 years ago.
Other classic EMs are already past fetching mid level SS game prices, if in superb condition or better (non-HER).
I just found the last Ted Zale game I needed, but I have to pay the piper based on the condition.
But, just before that I found another from the series that I received for practically nothing because I helped out another restorer.
Plenty of projects are still available at a modest price across the market for those that have aptitude to learn, and a mentor to teach.
The last part is the key as it affects the market as well for more viable machines people immediately want to buy.
Not everyone is interested in trying to restore their first machine, today more than ever.
Something everyone does know is EMs work best when they are played, not just looked at overall.
Even with a modest amount of time, sometimes you can turn games around into something to be proud.
Here is a GTB 70s wedgie that is getting closer to being rebounded.
The owner is elated, and learned to do the work themselves with a bit of guidance.
The result is predictable. They will not only buy another game, but save another game.
18491740_462302524112283_6063571034552307319_o (resized).jpg
Quoted from Schnollms:Bottom line: in my opinion and with my knowledge, the prices of pins (mainly EMs) will drop within the next 20 years.
As a guy that has quite a few EMs myself and paid a premium to get some of the ones I really wanted, this really doesn't bother me as I feel I've already got my money's worth in the enjoyment of working on them, playing them, and of course looking at them.
If I can get even a few more years enjoyment out of them, that is just icing on the cake. I never really cared about resale value of anything I bought to enjoy as long as I do indeed get to enjoy it.
If nobody will be able to maintain them after I'm gone then so be it. At least I had my fun.
I was just at a pinball tournament and half the players were under 30. A couple teens. I was surprised.
My 2cents
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:Although not a pure fear, there is certainly room for concern.
Many do not know how to fix EMs now (although simpler than modern games and MUCH MUCH more reliable in the long term), some due not want to learn, and many dealers for the most part will not touch them.
I would am more worried for the repairability of current times games.
Say (imagination) the Spike system has some kind of plaguing flaw that takes 10 years to show up. In ten years the system may advice. Will they still make node boards? Will anyone know how to fix them? There is already not many people that can work on the SMT whitestar boards.
Quoted from Rarehero:Last time the economy/market tanked, pin prices went up. That's the thing - even though pinball may be an. "Investment" to some people - it's not usually viewed as a traditional financial investment. It's a physical item that is collectible due to the finite amount that exist. No one liquidated their collections for cash during the recession. They were immune to what happened. There was no "pinball bank" that said "Today that $5000 game is now only worth $1000". I've said it before - the only thing that causes prices to "plummet" is a simultaneous mass sell-off. There's almost no scenario where that happens....where 100's of the same titles all of the sudden flood back on the market.
You are the F'ing king of twisting people's words. I never said the pinball market would crash. I said, "drop"! Also comparing 2008-2009 to now is a big difference, there are 3 times the games out there and 3 times the collectors. Check the damn Pinside membership for a clue. As another poster stated, pinball died in the years prior to the market crash......It could only go up from there! The entire business model changed, from producers to buyers. As long as the supply demand curve is skewed toward demand, we are fine in any market condition. That being said, the more individuals that participate in this hobby and the higher the prices get, the more vulnerable the hobby is to market forces. Prices will drop! To deny that is just stupid! You are either so damn rich you are out of touch or you just like being a devils advocate.
Prices will not go down until demand goes down. Demand is still on the upswing. The popularity of pinball is still on the upswing.
1. In our relatively small market of Birmingham Alabama, we have 7 locations with 58 machines. Almost twice what there was just two years ago.
2. In our league MCPL we currently have 31 players. An all time high in the 9 years I've been running it. Even more impressive is this is our Summer league which typically has fewer players than at other times of the year.
3. I personally know many players that now have machines at home that had zero only 1-2 years ago.
I think your logic is flawed. Prices may eventually level off if/when demand declines. But prices plummeting? Not gonna happen.
Quoted from barakandl:Say (imagination) the Spike system has some kind of plaguing flaw that takes 10 years to show up.
The Spike system seems to be fairly reliable, but we may never know for sure... there's still that whole unfinished code thing that Stern can't seem to get past, and that no other manufacturer ever had a problem with. Before you reply, keep in mind that there's a big difference between fixing bugs and sending out substantially incomplete code into the wild.
Quoted from drsfmd:The Spike system seems to be fairly reliable, but we may never know for sure... there's still that whole unfinished code thing that Stern can't seem to get past, and that no other manufacturer ever had a problem with. Before you reply, keep in mind that there's a big difference between fixing bugs and sending out substantially incomplete code into the wild.
Unfinished code is one thing.
Failed surface mount components and no replacements is another. I hope hope the stern stuff is long term reliable (initial thoughts I am skeptical). When the stuff fails. Will hobbyist be able to do SMT level repair like they can swapping out a blown tip102? Will stern 10 years from now be able to replace current node board parts? I think older games will have a repairablilty that outlast current games.... that is my thought... I could be wrong (hope i am).
Lack of repairability could have a serious effect on resale of games 10 years from now.
Quoted from thedarkknight77:You are the F'ing king of twisting people's words.
Liar. 
Quoted from thedarkknight77:You are either so damn rich you are out of touch or you just like being a devils advocate douche.
Really not sure where this is coming from. You sure you're responding to me? You clearly know nothing about me.
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:Many do not know how to fix EMs now (although simpler than modern games and MUCH MUCH more reliable in the long term),
EMs are not much much more reliable in the long term, solid state devices are. There are no moving parts to wear out and no contacts to clean, no shafts that get dirty. Obviously, we know that both technologies can and will fail. If I am staring at an IC that does the job of a bunch of relay contacts and wheels, and then look at the same part in 20 years, it's likely that I have not had to do a single thing to it, where you will have had to do some form of cleaning or replacing a moving part in your equivalent.
Part of the reason solid state pinball replaced EMs was to reduce the amount if servicing required, and part of the reason upright video games replaced all pinball machines was even fewer moving parts, requiring even less service attention.
Quoted from thedarkknight77:Also comparing 2008-2009 to now is a big difference, there are 3 times the games out there...
This is where I stopped reading.
Quoted from Rondogg:This is where I stopped reading.
Actually it was in 2008/ 2009 when I got out of flipping pins and parts. Just couldn't move them in my area. Yeah I know every area is different but can personally say my area DID take a huge hit in those years. Considering I did 25 grand in sales in just the month of December 2007 to only about 12 grand for the year of 2008 and 10 grand in 2009.
Quoted from wayout440:EMs are not much much more reliable in the long term, solid state devices are.
I have brought 50+ year old EMs that sat dormant for most of their lives back to full working condition without replacing any parts, by just cleaning and making adjustments. And they continue to work fine with that done.
I am yet to see any SS game that sat for years not need one component replaced especially if past owners neglected to remove or change the batteries.
In that regards I give EMs the edge in long term reliability.
Purely anecdotally, wherever I see EMs next to SS machines, the SS machines are vastly more popular. I'm basing this mostly off of West coast observations at expos and the various pinball museums I regularly go to. The EM rows at expos generally have many open machines, and generally you have to wait for anything SS. Same at pinball museums.
Personally, I don't find EMs very fun to play, and I think this is shared by most of the general public. I love the artwork on some of the wedgeheads, but they're just too slow, greedy and lack any kind of depth to their rules.
Personally I believe that over time EM prices will stay about the same as they're already near what I think is the bottom, but SS machines will slowly rise over time (excepting short term price dips for flops and re-releases, or broader economic problems).
Quoted from o-din:50+ year old EMs that sat dormant
If they sat dormant, obviously the parts won't wear out. Two guys standing side by side, one is flipping a mechanical switch repeatly and the other is turning a transistor on and off. The majority of the time, the switch will wear out first.
Quoted from wayout440:The majority of the time, the switch will wear out first.
How many worn out switches have you replaced on EMs? i have seen them with 100,000+ plays on them and the switches are still all good. Sometimes a little out of adjustment but rarely does one need replacing.
Old solid states on the other hand have capacitors that dry up, connectors that need repinned, and transistors blown. And these are on ones that don't suffer from alkaline damage. Throw alkaline into the mix and now you are talking about complete board overhaul or replacement.
Quoted from Brijam:Purely anecdotally, wherever I see EMs next to SS machines, the SS machines are vastly more popular. I'm basing this mostly off of West coast observations at expos and the various pinball museums I regularly go to. The EM rows at expos generally have many open machines, and generally you have to wait for anything SS. Same at pinball museums.
Personally, I don't find EMs very fun to play, and I think this is shared by most of the general public. I love the artwork on some of the wedgeheads, but they're just too slow, greedy and lack any kind of depth to their rules.
Personally I believe that over time EM prices will stay about the same as they're already near what I think is the bottom, but SS machines will slowly rise over time (excepting short term price dips for flops and re-releases, or broader economic problems).
Just because an EM's ruleset is simple compared to more modern games does not equate with less fun. This misconception, dare I say myth, has proliferated in the hobby since the introduction of solid state technology. Moreover, EM games are plenty fast, when properly tuned.
The rules attendant to EM pitch and bat games, for example, are straightforward and quite elementary. Yet, they continue to fill a "fun factor niche" today that contemporary games cannot and never will.
If enthusiasts starts counting the number of Stern SS games existing in operation from construction of the 1999-2009 period, the remaining numbers might surprise new owners. It is not very great. Lack of parts, and especially WhiteStar board sets.
That is less than 20 years.
EMs that are more than 20-50 years older are still going strong, not mention interchangeability of many aspects of the machines titles themselves.
The reliability factor that was pitched so heavily in the late 1970s to switch to SS was partly marketing and partly promoted operator laziness in efforts to emphasize the potential profits to NOT service their games. This is still believed by many to this very day.
Anyone that owns a sequence of games through the spectrum of eras (40s to 00s) can make a quality comparison. If an owner has an EM and SS game setting "side by side" at equal levels of service and condition, the SS will almost always have problems first for a whole host of different reasons. Not all EMs have simple assemblies either. Nip-It "Ballgator" is a great example.
"The truth is out there."
Sana'a
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:The reliability factor that was pitched so heavily in the late 1970s to switch to SS was partly marketing and partly promoted operator laziness in efforts to emphasize the potential profits to NOT service their games.
Nonsense, and not at all true.
I was still routing the Gottlieb EMs (Gottlieb was the last company to switch to SS), and players were simply not playing them in numbers anymore.
The players WERE lining up to play the new SS games. We would sometimes deploy 4 same title SS games side by side because they were so popular.
The public voted with their quarters
I never disagreed on popularity of early SS games, nor the transition into the electronic revolution. Simple tunes, features, and sounds won the day. The progression continued, and operators earned more money accordingly until mid arcade 80s slump.
My experience in reliability stands.
The market pitch for SS shows up in multiudes of flyers in comparison to applying it to earnings.
Earnings were based on popularity not reliability.
Quoted from LTG:And they were hauling in a lot more money than the old EM's were.
LTG : )
Exactly.
People can cry all they want about how reliable EMs were, but when idiots would flip them over, I'd have to drag them back to the shop because they were so fncked up.
At least when SS games were flipped, they usually booted back up, no problem.
What did an AC/DC pro and premium go for on the secondary market 2 weeks ago? What's it go for today?
Quoted from o-din:How many worn out switches have you replaced on EMs? i have seen them with 100,000+ plays on them and the switches are still all good. Sometimes a little out of adjustment but rarely does one need replacing.
Old solid states on the other hand have capacitors that dry up, connectors that need repinned, and transistors blown. And these are on ones that don't suffer from alkaline damage. Throw alkaline into the mix and now you are talking about complete board overhaul or replacement.
It took me about 6 hours each of adjusting and cleaning switches to bring both an EM pin and and EM bowler back to operation. It took me 2 hours each to repair two bally pins with alk damage. I didn't play my entire collection for nearly 3 months one time, guess what - I had to clean score reels on my EM bowler to get them to advance scores on the thousands reel on one player. Didn't have to do a damn thing to my ultra reliable solid state games.
Did you know the Post Office is going from 4 cents a stamp to 5 cents? No one will be mailing letters anymore.
Gas at 24 cents a gallon. Who can afford to go on a trip anymore?
Motel rooms at $5. per night. No one will be travelling anymore.
Haircuts .50 cents each. No way.
Quoted from g0nz0:So far I've been havimg a friendly "debate " with others on why I feel prices might fall. Only one person (you) decided to attack me personally by stating how I couldn't possibly have an opinion since I'm new and how I can't predict the future.
So feel free to ignore. I won't miss the trolls one bit.
And if hearing their 10k MM might fall hurts feeling. Well, people shouldnt invest so high.
And maybe you shouldnt take my debate topic so personal. I clearly stated others could tell me why they feel differently (without insulting me personally)
Don't worry so much about what others say. I start topics on Pinside to get people's opinions and 9 out of 10 times someone has put a negative spin on the thread. You're right- game prices are ridiculous but they will continue to stay high as long as demand is there.
Eventually it becomes clear to what extent wish-thinking drives most aspects of the human experience. People think whatever makes them feel good. Show me someone who thinks prices are too high and I'll show you someone who will enjoy discussing the imminent crash. This notion of the crash feels good because it will correct the perceived injustice of high prices or return things back to the way things used to be when times were better etc. My point is not that there can't or won't be market changes in the future but rather to be aware that, most of the time, people who take the view that there will be a crash someday deep down wish it will happen.
Quoted from o-din:Ballys.
For my arcade it was Gottliebs. My players favored them. Opposite at my sister's arcade, Ballys were king there.
LTG : )
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