Quoted from benheck:Why does anyone care if the values bottom out? I mean, pins aren't investments RIGHT?
Flippers. Beyond that, can't imagine anyone wanting anything but lower prices.
I'd also add that 'bottoming out' in this thread meant 10-20% for the vast majority of pins. So a $10k pin going for 8-9k.
Quoted from g0nz0:Plain and simple. Items have a normal price that goes up with inflation and at times gets a mega boost due to some event. Normally it never last and drops back down to were it would have been due to normal inflation if the event had never came. I think we all agree on that right? I mean we see it happen all the time. No big secret.
We don't all agree on this.
It is not "normal" for a collectible object to have a "normal price" that stays constant over time (adjusted for inflation) and only moves significantly due to an oddball event causing a "mega boost." What is the "normal price" based on? And what would maintain the "normal price" if the total number of people in the market is increasing or decreasing?
As I understand what you're saying, you view pinball machines (and everything else) as having a set, intrinsic value, e.g. MB is simply "worth" $4-$5k regardless of what it's currently selling for, and it will always tend to return to that intrinsic value pricepoint. Do I have to presuppose that MB is inherently "worth" $4-$5k to make sense of your view of the world? And if so how do you derive the $4-$5k "normal price" for MB?
Quoted from snakesnsparklers:We're gonna need some pics asap
+1
Quoted from EricHadley:I am pretty sure in 50 years my TZ will sell for 50k
I'm pretty sure your right. With inflation over the next 50 years 50k would be about the same as 5k today.
Quoted from benheck:Why does anyone care if the values bottom out? I mean, pins aren't investments RIGHT?
Most of us really don't care...we're just tired of the ridiculous prognosticating.
Quoted from g0nz0:For some reason I am the only one getting getting the fingers pointed at.
Quoted from SUPERBEE:I honestly think that you have been pretty decent and polite through all this. Some others, not soo much. You were just stating an opinion, not a fact and got ripped for it although i do see why many are very tired of this type of thread. Move on and enjoy the many many things that Pinside offers. Lots of fantastic people in here.
Thank you for replying, you made my night. I was seriously sitting here earlier thinking to myself "does nobody really see how slammed I got first and see why I got angry those times. Do they not realize my post is just a theory, not a fact".
You gave me hope again!
Quoted from snakesnsparklers:We're gonna need some pics asap
Damn, someones lonely tonight lol
Quoted from g0nz0:Thank you for replying, you made my night. I was seriously sitting here earlier thinking to myself "does nobody really see how slammed I got first and see why I got angry those times. Do they not realize my post is just a theory, not a fact".
You gave me hope again!
if people knew you were talking about a 10-20% blip and not the bottom falling
Out (plummeting) things would have been different I think.
Don't take it personally. You're the most recent newb in a long line of newbs that put forth such theories. They've never come true and people get tired of hearing about them.
It's not personal. All of us would like to see prices dip a bit.
Quoted from Pinfactory2000:We're literally just beginning to emerge from the worst recession ever...And pin prices have risen steadily throughout it.
The Great Recession officially ended June 2009. While the recovery was slow & painful and GDP growth was modest, we have been out of the recession for nearly 8 years. There is some risk of an economic cyclical downturn after such a long period of economic growth. Luxury goods will be affected; I believe history demonstrates that.
Quoted from pezpunk:The 2008 recession was one of the worst in US history, and it didn't affect pin prices much if at all.
I'm a bit confused by this statement since pinball was about dead in 2008 and stern almost went out of business. I bought my first pin at the end of 2007. It was a TAF that I bought for $2500. I suppose you could argue a TAF cost $2500 pre-recession but pinball was struggling mightily to remain relevant as the operator/home buyer mix changed so I think pinball was already in its own recession before the recession. Prices certainly climbed during the economic recovery.
Quoted from tbanthony:Luxury goods will be affected; I believe history demonstrates that.
History also demonstrates my wife will still want them.
Quoted from tbanthony:I'm a bit confused by this statement since pinball was about dead in 2008 and stern almost went out of business. I bought my first pin at the end of 2007. It was a TAF that I bought for $2500. I suppose you could argue a TAF cost $2500 pre-recession but pinball was struggling mightily to remain relevant as the operator/home buyer mix changed so I think pinball was already in its own recession before the recession. Prices certainly climbed during the economic recovery.
I got my TAF around the same time and price - but it was not the norm. Collector and reseller prices were much higher. We got lucky - why? Inventory. The warehouses, Craigslist casual sellers, auctions, and operators hadn't been picked clean yet. Those lucky finds are much more rare today because the existing games have been snapped up and reside in collectors' collections or resellers showrooms....or are on route at locations like barcades. So - prices tend to be consistently more consistent these days due to less likely deals like we found pre-2011.
Quoted from tbanthony:I'm a bit confused by this statement since pinball was about dead in 2008 and stern almost went out of business.
He's correct. The Great Recession was from 2006.5 -> 2009.5 but pin prices never actually declined... they started on the up trend in the middle of the Great Recession and have yet to have a pullback overall. Yes, used game prices flattened out a couple years ago when the market started getting flooded with NIB game options, but the prices of NIB games keep going up, so the pinball economy overall is still on the rise.
Quoted from arcademojo:I'm pretty sure your right. With inflation over the next 50 years 50k would be about the same as 5k today.
you're
Quoted from Baiter:He's correct. The Great Recession was from 2006.5 -> 2009.5 but pin prices never actually declined... they started on the up trend in the middle of the Great Recession and have yet to have a pullback overall. Yes, used game prices flattened out a couple years ago when the market started getting flooded with NIB game options, but the prices of NIB games keep going up, so the pinball economy overall is still on the rise.
Correct. the 'official' (read: academically defined term recession) ended in 2009 but almost flat growth remained.
Regardless, prices still rose.
I dont think anyone disagrees that a recession or high unemployment constricts the sale of many things. The elasticity, so far, for pins seems relatively inelastic though obviously not completely immune.
Its also inteesting to note that personal consumption expeditures rises many times during recessionary periods.
And then of course there's the issue of who is impacted by recessions.
"the great recession has hit bottom 99% incomes much harder than the 2001 recession
(Table 1), and in part because upper incomes excluding realized capital gains
have resisted relatively well during the Great Recession."
The games from 2011 to now that have relatively higher production levels on average
won't peak past MSRP out of box prices used (unless HUO) minus a few titles.
Games from the 2010s will gradually edge up some more.
A/B titles from the 90s will gradually edge up in price.
C titles from the 90s have the most up side in growth in price.
A/B titles from the 80s will edge up a bit.
C titles from the 80s have the most possible up side in grown in price.
The only games that ASS shall be prospectively be lost on are so called "Premium" and "LE" games
that missed the marks like Avengers, Transformers and other TBD titles that demand didn't hit and collectors don't keep.
Quoted from tbanthony:I'm a bit confused by this statement since pinball was about dead in 2008 and stern almost went out of business. I bought my first pin at the end of 2007. It was a TAF that I bought for $2500. I suppose you could argue a TAF cost $2500 pre-recession but pinball was struggling mightily to remain relevant as the operator/home buyer mix changed so I think pinball was already in its own recession before the recession. Prices certainly climbed during the economic recovery.
pinball was virtually dead BEFORE the recession hit. prices climbed throughout the recession.
Quoted from Pinfactory2000:Correct. the 'official' (read: academically defined term recession) ended in 2009 but almost flat growth remained.
Regardless, prices still rose.
I dont think anyone disagrees that a recession or high unemployment constricts the sale of many things. The elasticity, so far, for pins seems relatively inelastic though obviously not completely immune.Its also inteesting to note that personal consumption expeditures rises many times during recessionary periods.
And then of course there's the issue of who is impacted by recessions.
"the great recession has hit bottom 99% incomes much harder than the 2001 recession
(Table 1), and in part because upper incomes excluding realized capital gains
have resisted relatively well during the Great Recession."
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2015.pdf
If you'd like some accurate stats of economic and employment data shadow stats is quite legit...
http://www.shadowstats.com
Pinball collectors on average know how to save money,
how to stay employed,
how to invest their money relatively well
and collect things that appreciate more than depreciate.
Long Live Pinflation!
has the OP set a date (heck, even a year) when this plummet is going to happen.
This whole thread is TLDR, but I want to know when I shoudl save my $$$$ to plan on buying more.
Quoted from Pinfactory2000:Correct. the 'official' (read: academically defined term recession) ended in 2009 but almost flat growth remained.
Regardless, prices still rose.
I dont think anyone disagrees that a recession or high unemployment constricts the sale of many things. The elasticity, so far, for pins seems relatively inelastic though obviously not completely immune.Its also inteesting to note that personal consumption expeditures rises many times during recessionary periods.
And then of course there's the issue of who is impacted by recessions.
"the great recession has hit bottom 99% incomes much harder than the 2001 recession
(Table 1), and in part because upper incomes excluding realized capital gains
have resisted relatively well during the Great Recession."
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2015.pdf
Actually, I think the data shows that the price is elastic: As price increased, volume fell. Now there are some issues with this data -- it is eBay sales only and certainly doesn't represent the whole market for multiples reasons (people shifting to selling through other channels, more dealer sales pushing the price up, etc.). But if you JUST looked at this data, this would clearly demonstrate price elasticity.
Quoted from benheck:Why does anyone care if the values bottom out? I mean, pins aren't investments RIGHT?
"Why does anyone care if the values bottom out?"
This "why he feels prices will plummet" thread is a truly just a trolling thread.
There is no "bottom out" of all pinball coming...
The "pinball market" isn't a stock or bond market,
there aren't options and day trading of games,
they stay on location or in houses and don't move much to move price much up or down based on sales.
"I mean, pins aren't investments RIGHT?"
Wrong haha.
The collector mentality instills a habit of adding perceived real market and intrinsic value to any item that they buy.
Buying a graded comic book (it's a fucking comic book someone graded and sealed so you can't even look at the pages again!)
Baseball cards (it's a fucking card!)
Amiibos (it's fucking a toy...)
etc..........
The more that any collector pays for an item the more they truly feel it's really worth.
$5000 for a pinball machine, yeah they really believe they'll get $5000 or more later for it.
$7500 for a pinball machine, yeah they really believe they'll get $7500 or more later for it.
$10000 for a pinball machine, yeah they really believe they'll get $10000 or more later for it.
I'm not saying that most people buy pinball machines in the hopes to make a profit off of their investment,
but in the end, if one plays a game hundreds of times and sells it for what they have in it, they make a profit.
Quoted from tbanthony:Actually, I think the data shows that the price is elastic: As price increased, volume fell. Now there are some issues with this data -- it is eBay sales only and certainly doesn't represent the whole market for multiples reasons (people shifting to selling through other channels, more dealer sales pushing the price up, etc.). But if you JUST looked at this data, this would clearly demonstrate price elasticity.
More current chart... but the trend continues.
In case anyone cares and isn't familiar with Price elasticity:
Price elasticity of demand (PED or Ed) is a measure used in economics to show the responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity demanded of a good or service to a change in its price.
Inelastic Example:
When I was in banking, banks would charge as much as they could for OverDraft fees -- until the gov't slapped their wrist. Why? Because the people that overdraw their accounts continue to do so whether the fee is $10, $25 or $35. That is a good example of an inelastic price.
Arguably, this is taking advantage of people -- which is why I wasn't surprised that the gov't eventually stepped in from a regulatory standpoint. You see this with drug prices as well -- are you going to pay or die? You pay.
The majority of consumer goods would be price elastic because the consumer makes a conscious purchase decision and will weigh the pro's, con's and alternatives of the purchase --but it is certainly possible for the overall demand to increase and the price to increase at the same time because the products is the new, hot item and dominates it's market space. This is a happy time for a business when they can increase the price and still have demand increase or remain stable. It's nearly impossible for it to last over the long haul though -- competition, economic factors, etc. can all disrupt the good times. At some point, prices stabilize or even decrease and/or the volume starts to take a hit.
Quoted from tbanthony:Actually, I think the data shows that the price is elastic: As price increased, volume fell. Now there are some issues with this data -- it is eBay sales only and certainly doesn't represent the whole market for multiples reasons (people shifting to selling through other channels, more dealer sales pushing the price up, etc.). But if you JUST looked at this data, this would clearly demonstrate price elasticity.
Well thats right but NIB sales increased over that time so you have to add that into the assumption.
Quoted from g0nz0:But this hobby is the only one that I have ever seen explode like this.
For example I buy, restore and sell retro consoles. (Nes, snes etc). The price on these dropped very low at one point. Now a lot of 40 years olds wanna re live their childhood and prices went up. On eBay prices are like $150 for a NES. Sure, I still find them for 20 here and there but ththe market value like $100 on average (which is still lower than retail back when they came out).
But with pins the prices skyrocketed. It would be like if a NES was selling for 3k in comparison. That is why I feel like it has to fall. Too much too soon. I mean even with cars you can still buy a nice 72 Chevelle cheaper than a Monster Bash lol
I've never seen a hobby go up so fast in price. But I could be wrong and missed some.
I've been collecting console stuff as well for many years. Pin prices "jumped" in the last 10 years but Addams was still $2500, Theatre was $2500, Twilight was $2500, etc around those times. I am not talking "buy from your operator" pricing. True eBay sold listings at running auctions in the last 9-10 years.
Pin pricing has stabilized on the higher end ones (and dropped) on a few, then some when right back up again. In perspective Nintendo stuff is through the roof. Game wise. All of the boxed items for the retro systems from 10+ years ago has went up 8x-10x. I sold a complete in box Nintendo game (not console) for $50,000. I sold a few others in the five figure range as well (they were sealed) and there is absolutely no way that stuff was even remotely like that 10 years ago.
People talking about "bubbles bursting", there will always be classic car collecting, just like there will always be pinball collecting. The only market I see a bubble bursting would be the arcade market. That went up like crazy because of barcades opening in the past few years increasing demand with other arcades and some of the documentaries put out increasing interest in the majority of classics.
Also, EMs were "never in demand" at any type pricing like this except maybe certain ones and Gottliebs...I've been buying/selling/collecting a very long time and I am very good at picking the under the radar stuff that no one talks about.....
Quoted from DreamTR:I sold a complete in box Nintendo game (not console) for $50,000...
Dang!
Quoted from flynnibus:pinside loves a good dumpster fire
Ever find your normal threads quiet? Just goto the front page and find the latest light everyone is flocking to
Many popular and classic EM games are selling for the same values as WMS System 11 and early DMD games from the 1990s.
The machines are not cheap at all, although I wish they were.
Wishing thinking on the part of others.
A person has to search very hard to find examples in superb condition without planking, or window pane backglasses.
Much harder than any single DMD game made from 1990 and up.
Well below average games not so much a problem, but the average starts at $500 and up for working examples.
Most EMs baselined years ago and have been on the rise ever since.
The past five years caused a significant EM rebound due to increasing NIB pricing as they have been pulled along, and become more popular since manufacturers have spiked their machines for short term monetary gains.
Dealers are bringing them out of storage as well, since they can turn a fast buck for them as "projects" (the technicians do not know how to repair them in most cases).
This is just one small area to correct misinformation in this thread.
The days of $150 non-working EMs in great condition sitting in people's basements are slowly coming to close, although periodically you can still do warehouse acquisitions and oddballs here and there if you know the regions you live.
The largest cause is due to the quality of the machines themselves.
Many do not feel like replacing cabinets, but still save the playfields and backglasses when possible while removing the internal baseboards.
If enthusiasts want to learn something regarding the overall market, game values, and trends, buy the the upcoming Mr. Pinball Price Guide 2017.
Understand the differences.
People do not need to speculate anything across most of the noted remarks.
The work has already been done and researched yearly for enthusiasts by those that are involved.
Good fortune and happy future reading.
Quoted from SUPERBEE:I can't believe this thread is still going!
It would have stopped two hours ago if you hadn't just posted.
Makes sense that the OP predicts/wants A-list prices to drop since he has MB and AFM on his wishlist.
All it will take is for Pottery Barn or Restoration Hardware to sell another EM for an astronomical price and the lid will further widen.
Quoted from smailskid:What in box game commands 50K? just curious
Stadium Events. DreamTR has one of the largest (unique titles) if not the largest video game collections in the world, unless he's sold some off or let people catch up to him.
Quoted from cosmicjim:Stadium Events. DreamTR has one of the largest (unique titles) if not the largest video game collections in the world, unless he's sold some off or let people catch up to him.
Yup. I've bought a few things from him that are in my collection over the last 15 years.
Quoted from littlecammi:It would have stopped two hours ago if you hadn't just posted.
Yeah, sure it would have !! lol
Quoted from Whysnow:TLDR, it would have been easier to say you just dont get it
It would have been easier for you to admit that you made a statement based on nothing and presented it as an undeniable truth and that it was just your, like, opinion, man. Instead you used dogmatism. Cool. You seem to think you "won" the discussion and are clearly done with it. That's fine with me because arguing with an irrational person isn't that fun and I like fun things, like pinball.
Quoted from kklank:These are the kind of threads that take the fun out of this hobby. Thanks gonzo.
Sorry, but totally not his fault.
I failed to realize that the OP , owning one pin was so right. Many have used the phrase (10,000 by Christmas ), so
I am selling all 36 of my pins at a discount to that $10,000 price, $9,500, each!! LOL. It's a hobby, buy, sell, play,
have fun.
Quoted from drsfmd:LCD screens aside, what new tech has come into pinball in the last 25 years? There's literally nothing Stern has done on a playfield that B/W (and others) didn't do before them.
Literally lot's of stuff:
PWM driven flippers
Magnetic ghostbuster slingshots
Fiber optic lighting on TRON LE ramps.
Motorized moving bridges
Peak-a-boo beaded curtains in playboy
Quoted from g0nz0:Thank you for replying, you made my night. I was seriously sitting here earlier thinking to myself "does nobody really see how slammed I got first and see why I got angry those times. Do they not realize my post is just a theory, not a fact".
You gave me hope again!
All good...You did no wrong. Regardless of what others might say. Last time i looked it was Pinside FORUM . Thats right, i said it ... FORUM guys ! 
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