Why I feel Pinball Prices Are Going To Plummet...

(Topic ID: 188515)

Why I feel Pinball Prices Are Going To Plummet...


By g0nz0

1 year ago



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  • Latest reply 1 year ago by ypurchn
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    Topic poll

    “Will Pinball Prices Drop Hard Over The Next Ten Years?”

    • Definitely 135 votes
      20%
    • Not a Chance 267 votes
      39%
    • The Future Is Uncertain 289 votes
      42%

    (691 votes)

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    There are 1053 posts in this topic. You are on page 1 of 22.
    #1 1 year ago

    Notice: This topic is just my opinion. It isn't a prediction of the future and I am not looking to upset anyone. I am a new pinsider just wanting a friendly discussion on the current pricing of pins. I am sure this discussion has been rehashed over and over but like I said I am new here and just looking to start a friendly discussion. Some seemed to take i personal so I just wanted to put this notice on to avoid any personal attacks.

    I have a very strong feeling that sometime in the next 5-10 years pin prices are going to dramatically drop.

    Now I am sure a lot of you are reading this and thinking.... "dude, I just sold my Monster Bash for 15k.. you're an idiot". But the fact that you just sold it for that much makes me lean more towards yes. Let me explain why I believe this is most certain. Here are the reasons I feel it will happen (and please remember this is just my "opinion" and if you feel the opposite there is no need to name call etc. I know that anyone who jist spent 10k on a pin doesn't want to accept this reality, but don't take it personal. If you do feel different please explain your reasoning. I would love to hear it.

    1. Too high. Too fast.
    I've seen pin prices over the past 20 years bounce a bit. Mainly going up with inflation. But in past 10 years prices have surpassed normal increases. Some A titles have literally doubled yearly and what was once a "hard to giveaway" machine is now a "hard to get under 8k". I believe prices have just gone too high waayy too fast!

    2. The end of an era.
    I think most of us here all know that the pinball era did in fact die. Mainly in the 90's. I am 41 and I saw this with my own two eyes. I watch less and less pins in the arcade then. And the ones I saw no one was playing. Even I myself was not much of a pin player. I was attracted to the Street Fighters and Mortal Kombats. As was everyone else. The Adams family just sit there all alone. Or you saw 2 people over in that section.

    Now why is this relevant? Well I personally believe most people become pin owners between the age of 40-60. At 40 we all want to relive our past and finally have the disposable income to make this a reality. But guess what... the 30s crowd now in 10 years won't have a pinball memory to even remember. Because I watched the arcades die. So the next 40 year old crowd are the xbox and playstation generation.

    So I personally see demand dropping rapidly in new buyers.

    3. Look at prices of each type of pin.
    EM's were once hot, now they are dirt cheap. Why? Because those who grew up playing those are up there in age and passing away slowly and not many left want them. At the moment 90s pins are on fire because they are the ones WE grew up playing. So we are hitting the last era. The DMD era.

    4. Supply and Demand.
    The demand is going to drop eventually. And supply doesn't seem to be a problem. I see 50 A titles a day pop up for sale. And I am sure a lot of you see more. They are not hard to find. Because people are paying so much currently that those who got them a decade ago cheap are cashing in big flipping them.

    But those buying now.. well I see a loss in the future if held too long.

    5. New generation of players.
    Sure, there seems to be this surge of new pin interest. These "Bar-cades" popping up and new young folk are playing. But sadly the prices are running them off. I've personally heard so many saying "I could get a car for that much". So this new group of people (that we need badly to help regrow things) have no interest in buying one. The only people paying these prices are deep pocket older folks who are paying for the nostalgia.

    If you have no childhood memories, you aren't going to spend 8k on a machine.

    6. Pockets are full.
    All those deep pocket (I gotta have it) folk are getting their fill. And soon they will no longer be buying once they get what they want. And... eventually taking huge loses on their collection of I am correct in my prediction. All hobbies have a surge. Suckers come in, the hobbies dies down and that is that. Vinyl had a surge. Retro consoles are surging but will soon fall.

    7. Remakes.
    8k for NIB or decades of wear and tear. Sure we all love original but playfield sadly take beatings.

    So.... what is your opinion? I'll attach a poll as well.

    Do you see it continuing to get out of control? Or do you see an economic bubble bursting soon and pin prices collapsing?

    #3 1 year ago

    That's crazy talk - pinball prices/investments are rock solid! They'll just keep going up forever ... ever ... ever ... ever ...

    47
    #4 1 year ago

    oh good this topic again. i'm sure your insights are incredibly intereszzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    #5 1 year ago

    Who gives a d... about pricedrop in 10years.
    But your oins and enjoy them now.

    #6 1 year ago

    Supply in the UK is at rock bottom. Even DE / SEGA games have virtually doubled in price over the last 12 months.

    The playing / buying demographic are firmly in their 40s. In 30 years time supply might increase as people die or downsize but until then I wouldn't expect a big increase in demand.

    Poor exchange rates have pushed NIB prices up to an eye watering level.

    Savings attract virtually no interest so why not spend cash on a table instead?

    Some people presumably are cashing in and selling their machines but not many.

    I suspect high prices will be with us for a while longer. Hopefully they won't go up further but I wouldn't bet on it. There's no way I would get into this hobby now, I remember struggling to justify £500 on a Hook as my first machine. Now starter games are £1200+

    16
    #7 1 year ago

    Hmmmm...I predict some prices will go down and some prices will go up!

    Now what do I win?

    #8 1 year ago

    I'm sorry, but I think that your theory makes no sense what so ever. Maybe 3-4 years ago Stern was the only show in town. Now, there are at least 5 companies making pinball machines, and that number will most likely increase. The technology is getting better by the day, and the market for pinball machines, and associated products is growing by the day as well. With a growing market and the number of existing and very collectable machines decreasing daily; the price has nowhere to go but up.
    Although highly unlikely, due to the growing number of new machine buyers; the price for new games could possibly decrease slightly or stay the same, but the older machines and machines that are no longer being produced have a much better chance of going up in value.
    I strongly believe that games like Wizard of OZ will see dramatic increases in value once they are no longer being produced.
    The hobby is in an upswing. The market is growing and there is absolutely no reason for it not to continue to grow at an even more accelerated rate than it has been. Pinball bars and arcades are popping up everywhere. Tournaments and leagues are getting more and more popular. Pinball shows are growing in size and becoming more popular year after year .
    You sound like someone that just wants to pay less for his games. It is just not going to happen any time soon, and their is a much better chance that the value of the top 100 games or so increase in value substantially over the next 10 years than there is for them to decrease in value at all.
    Unlike the stock market, which is controlled and fixed by the hedge fund managers and the extremely wealthy .... The pinball marketplace is a great supply and demand example, and all indicators are pointing upwards.

    Manny

    #9 1 year ago

    Sorry that I posted something already discussed. But then again with THOUSANDS of post on here what hasn't been?

    Every post you see on PS today was discussed last week. I didn't see a recent discussion and I brought up an old topic but just voiced my personal opinion. And considering I am new here it is fair that I can't read every one posted.

    It appears some also got butthurt based on their replies (why they even bothered to click on the subject and not just scroll by it is beyond me, but that is what some people do. They complain about complainers never realizing the hypocrisy of their own post).

    Most likely replies from those who bought in at the peak I guess. Understandable.

    So sorry for rehashing a sore subject that's been discussed I guess. If a moderator wishes to del3ete this post, I don't mind.

    Maybe my next topic will be "what can I talk about pin related that has never been discussed."

    Wish me luck! Lol

    34
    #10 1 year ago

    A lot of the theory there is based on 'people under 40 who didn't grow up with pinball won't spend 8k on a machine no way'. I'm 32, I've bought two machines after discovering pinball 4 years ago. You don't have to have 'childhood memories' to enjoy things retro.

    -14
    #11 1 year ago
    Quoted from Bruce:

    A lot of the theory there is based on 'people under 40 who didn't grow up with pinball won't spend 8k on a machine no way'. I'm 32, I've bought two machines after discovering pinball 4 years ago. You don't have to have 'childhood memories' to enjoy things retro.

    I agree, but you are a minority. There are not many 30 something buyers spending 8k. Not enough to sustain the influx.

    Nor do I see many coming in later.

    I was at a barcade last week. I noticed a few younger players. One was playing MM. I talked breifly to him. He said, "This is fun, I wanna get one of these". I told him the price and he said "for these olders ones over here? That's insane".

    True story.

    #12 1 year ago

    You cant put a price on fun

    #13 1 year ago

    This is your perspective, there is a whole new "golden" era for pinball right now 20-30 year old kids are just now finding these 70's & 90's great titles and appreciating and experiencing them for the 1st time. It's not like the housing market lol

    #14 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    I agree, but you are a minority. There are not mant 30 something buyers spending 8k. Not enough to sustain the influx.

    What supporting evidence do you have? I know several people in their teens, 20s, and 30s who own games. Granted, not all of them are big spenders, but hobbyists can be any age.

    Pinball is not just an "old guy" thing. Walk into any show these days and there is a fairly good cross section of the population flipping away--men, women, young, and old.

    #15 1 year ago
    Quoted from gmkalos:

    This is your perspective, there is a whole new "golden" era for pinball right now 20-30 year old kids are just now finding these 70's & 90's great titles and appreciating and experiencing them for the 1st time. It's not like the housing market lol

    Well I clearly stated it was my opinion
    And yes you arw correct, it isn't housing but all retro hobbies have bubbles.

    And as I stated a lot of 20-30 year olds are discovering pinball at barcades. But are they buying one for their homes? No. Very few are.

    They are leaving the barcades, hitting ebay, yelling "WTF!" And closing the laptop.

    We definitely have new players. And we are scaring them away. That was one of my points.

    -2
    #16 1 year ago
    Quoted from Delta9:

    You cant put a price on fun

    Well actually you can... you just hope some idiot is willing to pay way too much for it. And currently some people are buying fun at a premium.

    #17 1 year ago

    As we old timers sell off or die off the 20 & 30 somethings will be entering their prime earning years and have some real "hobby money".

    #18 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    They are leaving the barcades, hitting ebay, yelling "WTF!" And closing the laptop.

    You're making another assumption that ebay would be their first stop--pinball machines can be found on social media, selling apps, craigslist, etc.

    You're also assuming that newbies won't talk to peers in the hobby offering them advice on a potential purchase.

    #19 1 year ago

    I'm a new player (38) and my opinion is that I just wont pay 15K for a 3K pin its ridiculous, I'm either going to find a basketcase and restore it or live with appreciating my Party Zone and wishing it were a Big Bang Bar lol Face it in the end its flippers, glass, buttons and a silver ball!

    #20 1 year ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    You're making another assumption that ebay would be their first stop--pinball machines can be found on social media, selling apps, craigslist, etc.

    every pin I've owned yet I've found off craigslist for a deal

    #21 1 year ago

    I don't think it is necessarily a retro thing either. Lots of new titles are coming out from different manufacturers. If you bought an old data east or bally then sure that is retro, but new sterns or jjp are different I think. Like buying a brand new mustang with new technology etc (not retro), but a mustang from the 70s sure that's retro. I'm rambling now.....

    #22 1 year ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    You're making another assumption that ebay would be their first stop--pinball machines can be found on social media, selling apps, craigslist, etc.

    It was an example but unfortunately most sellers on Craigslist and yardsale pages get their prices from ebay. Trust me, I've been on craigslist hoping to find that one guy with a MM for 3k.. apparently they all seem to know what it's going for

    Bu maybe one day I'll find that old lady who doesn't price check her pins before listing them lol

    #23 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    It was an example but unfortunany most sellers on Craigslist and yardsale pages get their prices from ebay. Trust me, I've been on craigslist hoping to find that one guy with a MM for 3k.. apparantly they all seen to know what it's going for

    You're not looking hard enough. Deals do surface. They just don't linger for more than 10 minutes.

    However, if you're after 90s games, the supply is drying up quick. There is only so many of those to go around. 70s & 80s pins are much more common since there were many more of those made.

    #24 1 year ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    You're not looking hard enough. Deals do surface. They just don't linger for more than 10 minutes.

    Good point. Sadly out of those 100 new pin buyers 1 got the deal and 99 have to pay 8k and walk away.

    I'm hoping I find one myself. I don't even own a 90s pin but want one badly. But I can't afford one. So Im waiting for tha miracle.. or waiting for the fall in price.

    Hopefully it comes.

    #25 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    Good point. Sadly out of those 100 new pin buyers 1 got the deal and 99 have to pay 8k and walk away.

    You're making assumptions again that they pay high prices.

    I was bringing home a game or two a month by bargain hunting...until I ran out of space, that is.

    23
    #26 1 year ago

    It's so great to have another new guy with such vast market knowledge and powers of prophecy.

    -1
    #27 1 year ago
    Quoted from Bruce:

    I don't think it is necessarily a retro thing either. Lots of new titles are coming out from different manufacturers. If you bought an old data east or bally then sure that is retro, but new sterns or jjp are different I think. Like buying a brand new mustang with new technology etc (not retro), but a mustang from the 70s sure that's retro. I'm rambling now.....

    I agree. There are some good titles coming out but sadly they are overpriced also and the quality is declining. Or at least that's the word on the street.

    #28 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    It was an example but unfortunately most sellers on Craigslist and yardsale pages get their prices from ebay. Trust me, I've been on craigslist hoping to find that one guy with a MM for 3k.. apparently they all seem to know what it's going for
    Bu maybe one day I'll find that old lady who doesn't price check her pins before listing them lol

    I've seen too many killer deals in the past few years on clist, I'm just always too late to the phone over you retired flippers lol

    #29 1 year ago

    Top games like TZ, MM, MB etc. Will still go up and will stay up. New pins are costing up to 10k. The old ones are built better, have a retro feel and are the cream of the crop in the most important area, which is game play. A TZ in great shape is like a classic car.

    The primary error in logic from the op is that the new pinheads have no money. There are sooooo many freakin' rich families out there, and many of those who can't afford today, will be able to soon enough; pin fever is unstoppable!

    That mint TOTAN IS worth 7 grand!

    #30 1 year ago
    Quoted from NorCalRealtor:

    It's so great to have another new guy with such vast market knowledge and powers of prophecy.

    Being a new "owner" doesn't mean I haven't followed pins for many years. I have been a long time arcade lover and knew arcade owners. I also looked into buying many time but never had the money or space for one until recently.

    But being "New" doesn't make me blind.

    Maybe instead of focusing on me you could focus on the topic. Maybe justify these prices. I'm all ears. That's the point of the debate.

    And also google "opinion". I think you got it confused with the word "wizard". I only stated why I "felt" prices will fall. I never claimed I knew they would with certainty.

    Maybe I should have put my "opinion disclaimer" at the beginning in bold :-/

    #31 1 year ago

    I would never buy a new game just cant financially justify it, I'd rather have a bunch of routed jems that I can work on it's more fun.

    #32 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    It was an example but unfortunately most sellers on Craigslist and yardsale pages get their prices from ebay. Trust me, I've been on craigslist hoping to find that one guy with a MM for 3k.. apparently they all seem to know what it's going for
    Bu maybe one day I'll find that old lady who doesn't price check her pins before listing them lol

    Nice to know you'd happily fleece an old lady. Do yourself a favor. Slow down. There's lots of fun to be had, friends to be made and things to learn here but that won't happen if you land on everyone's ignore list.

    #33 1 year ago

    I think your problem is with inflation in general, prices are going up and up and people are making less and less these days.

    #34 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    Maybe instead of focusing on me you could focus on the topic. Maybe justify these prices. I'm all ears. That's the point of the debate.

    I think some of the prices are bonkers, which is why I don't pay them. I'm more of an opportunistic bargain hunter, rather than someone who tries to hunt down one or two specific titles. If you are open to a wide range of games, a wide range of games will be available to you. If you are only open to one or two titles, well, then pickings will be slim.

    #35 1 year ago
    Quoted from NorCalRealtor:

    Nice to know you'd happily fleece an old lady. Do yourself a favor. Slow down. There's lots of fun to be had, friends to be made and things to learn here but that won't happen if you land on everyone's ignore list.

    So far I've been havimg a friendly "debate " with others on why I feel prices might fall. Only one person (you) decided to attack me personally by stating how I couldn't possibly have an opinion since I'm new and how I can't predict the future.

    So feel free to ignore. I won't miss the trolls one bit.

    And if hearing their 10k MM might fall hurts feeling. Well, people shouldnt invest so high.

    And maybe you shouldnt take my debate topic so personal. I clearly stated others could tell me why they feel differently (without insulting me personally)

    #36 1 year ago

    There's no reason a Black Spiderman is 8k when just 15 years ago a Austin Powers was 5K and 10 years prior a Black Rose was 3K that's bullshit, Stern is pardoning to your gen with the big bucks!

    #37 1 year ago

    Stern sets the standards to this new era, JJP just follows suit in my opinion. Pro, Le ect. really 3K more for vinyl decals, shaker motors and powdercoat bull! And all that stuff is probably made in China for pennies too, sure assembled in USA but outsourced to the cheapest supplier. If anything I would think new pins cost less to produce these days as opposed to 15 years ago when prices seemed more reasonable.

    #38 1 year ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    I think some of the prices are bonkers, which is why I don't pay them. I'm more of an opportunistic bargain hunter, rather than someone who tries to hunt down one or two specific titles. If you are open to a wide range of games, a wide range of games will be available to you. If you are only open to one or two titles, well, then pickings will be slim.

    Honestly I'm trying to broaden my search. I have a few lower cost machines I have been looking into getting. But as for the A titles I have accepted I'll probably never own one without a lot of luck or a lotto win lol

    #40 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    Good point. Sadly out of those 100 new pin buyers 1 got the deal and 99 have to pay 8k and walk away.
    I'm hoping I find one myself. I don't even own a 90s pin but want one badly. But I can't afford one. So Im waiting for tha miracle.. or waiting for the fall in price.
    Hopefully it comes.

    Quoted from g0nz0:

    Honestly I'm trying to broaden my search. I have a few lower cost machines I have been looking into getting. But as for the A titles I have accepted I'll probably never own one without a lot of luck or a lotto win lol

    So this is what your theory is based on!

    #41 1 year ago

    Hello kind sir! Thank you for the link. I am always looking for deal close to home!

    #42 1 year ago

    Some of your theories could happen and yes the prices Have elevated quicker than normal but what product with a market need hasn't? You keep talking about 8k prices and how youngsters (30's ish) won't spend that much but don't forget when Most on here were scratching there head in the 90's over a $1800 pin toy they could buy a New Car for $9,500 or a gallon of gas for $1. Most in those times would be Grateful to make 30k per year, now you can make more than that at McDonalds and still buy an Average priced car for 30k! My opinion, this is not exactly a poor mans (womens) hobby but if you are Willing to do your research (Pinside, RGP,....) and put in your own sweat equity this is still an enjoyable hobby. If your taste is 15k titles and you can't change a light bulb without a service visit this hobby Will eat you alive!!

    #43 1 year ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    I think some of the prices are bonkers, which is why I don't pay them. I'm more of an opportunistic bargain hunter, rather than someone who tries to hunt down one or two specific titles. If you are open to a wide range of games, a wide range of games will be available to you. If you are only open to one or two titles, well, then pickings will be slim.

    Yes. Exactly. The pins I buy will hold their value because I don't pay EBay prices. I will eventually buy a Stern but I expect it to fall in value much like any new car one drives off the parking lot. I've gotten some really great games (Royal Guard and Suspense) that I wouldn't have ever considered if they didn't just come along

    #44 1 year ago
    Quoted from pinballaddicted:

    So this is what your theory is based on!

    I am mainly talking about A titles. A know a lot of machines are still cheap (as of now).

    -1
    #45 1 year ago
    Quoted from Yelobird:

    Some of your theories could happen and yes the prices Have elevated quicker than normal but what product with a market need hasn't? You keep talking about 8k prices and how youngsters (30's ish) won't spend that much but don't forget when Most on here were scratching there head in the 90's over a $1800 pin toy they could buy a New Car for $9,500 or a gallon of gas for $1. Most in those times would be Grateful to make 30k per year, now you can make more than that at McDonalds and still buy an Average priced car for 30k! My opinion, this is not exactly a poor mans (womens) hobby but if you are Willing to do your research (Pinside, RGP,....) and put in your own sweat equity this is still an enjoyable hobby. If your taste is 15k titles and you can't change a light bulb without a service visit this hobby Will eat you alive!!

    When I mentioned 30 somethings I was mainly making a point that the majority of them never even played pinball, or seen one for that matter. So my point I guess was that there won't be many 30 something buyers compared to 40+ers. If that makes sense.

    #46 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    Hello kind sir! Thank you for the link. I am always looking for deal close to home!

    Just remember this site has its own way of doing business. First if you want something you say "I'll take it". Second if you ask questions about condition someone else will say "I take it" and then you won't get it. Third, assume it doesn't work and you need to fix it. Fourth if it's a good bargain it will be gone in 30 minutes or less. The deals are there to be had on projects but there is more risk involved and he isn't always that cheap on some pins.

    #47 1 year ago
    Quoted from pookycade:

    Yes. Exactly. The pins I buy will hold their value because I don't pay EBay prices. I will eventually buy a Stern but I expect it to fall in value much like any new car one drives off the parking lot. I've gotten some really great games (Royal Guard and Suspense) that I wouldn't have ever considered if they didn't just come along

    And that is awesome that you were fortunate enough to have gotten those deals! Sadly a lot of people are paying premiums. I'm like you mentally. I'm just holding out for that deal but they are hard to find.

    I just can't see why someone would drop 10k before shopping around. I am guessing some have deep pockets and just jump at the first one they see.

    The weird part is the buyers have the power. If people stop paying 10k for one it will drop. But that demands people showing patience I guess. And some with money might not care to hold out.

    #48 1 year ago
    Quoted from pookycade:

    Just remember this site has its own way of doing business. First if you want something you say "I'll take it". Second if you ask questions about condition someone else will say "I take it" and then you won't get it. Third, assume it doesn't work and you need to fix it. Fourth if it's a good bargain it will be gone in 30 minutes or less. The deals are there to be had on projects but there is more risk involved and he isn't always that cheap on some pins.

    That is currently why I own an older model lol. I had to get a beat up machine and fix it myself. I wish now I had gotten one 10 years ago. But I waited and never expected these prices this quickly.

    Hopefully I get to expand my addiction lol. But sadly I am one of the poor ones that have to wait longer for the deals.

    #49 1 year ago
    Quoted from g0nz0:

    And that is awesome that you were fortunate enough to have gotten those deals! Sadly a lot of people are paying premiums. I'm like you mentally. I'm just holding out for that deal but they are hard to find.
    I just can't see why someone would drop 10k before shopping around. I am guessing some have deep pockets and just jump at the first one they see.

    Your theory fits Any hobby or interest. Why do some people hunt for years for a certain car when you could simply go to the shiny New car dealer and buy a new one? Everyone has a different level of funds and dispensable cash. If you don't have the F'me money you have to hunt, network, get dirty, and invest lots of time to get what you want. Sometimes you even have to buy Lesser (B-C-D) titles and invest some time/labor so you can eventually sell and Buy your Dream A titles. I know I didn't start with an MM Nib. Actually started with an Alien Poker for $150. Still have it and it looks like new. What you put into this hobby is what you get out. If you only compare the hobby as a Whole to NIB pricing you will loose Every time!

    #50 1 year ago

    But this hobby is the only one that I have ever seen explode like this.

    For example I buy, restore and sell retro consoles. (Nes, snes etc). The price on these dropped very low at one point. Now a lot of 40 years olds wanna re live their childhood and prices went up. On eBay prices are like $150 for a NES. Sure, I still find them for 20 here and there but ththe market value like $100 on average (which is still lower than retail back when they came out).

    But with pins the prices skyrocketed. It would be like if a NES was selling for 3k in comparison. That is why I feel like it has to fall. Too much too soon. I mean even with cars you can still buy a nice 72 Chevelle cheaper than a Monster Bash lol

    I've never seen a hobby go up so fast in price. But I could be wrong and missed some.

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    Lighted Pinball Mods
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    Cabinet - Shooter Rods
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    Cabinet Parts
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    Playfield - Other
    Hookedonpinball.com
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