Notice: This topic is just my opinion. It isn't a prediction of the future and I am not looking to upset anyone. I am a new pinsider just wanting a friendly discussion on the current pricing of pins. I am sure this discussion has been rehashed over and over but like I said I am new here and just looking to start a friendly discussion. Some seemed to take i personal so I just wanted to put this notice on to avoid any personal attacks.
I have a very strong feeling that sometime in the next 5-10 years pin prices are going to dramatically drop.
Now I am sure a lot of you are reading this and thinking.... "dude, I just sold my Monster Bash for 15k.. you're an idiot". But the fact that you just sold it for that much makes me lean more towards yes. Let me explain why I believe this is most certain. Here are the reasons I feel it will happen (and please remember this is just my "opinion" and if you feel the opposite there is no need to name call etc. I know that anyone who jist spent 10k on a pin doesn't want to accept this reality, but don't take it personal. If you do feel different please explain your reasoning. I would love to hear it.
1. Too high. Too fast.
I've seen pin prices over the past 20 years bounce a bit. Mainly going up with inflation. But in past 10 years prices have surpassed normal increases. Some A titles have literally doubled yearly and what was once a "hard to giveaway" machine is now a "hard to get under 8k". I believe prices have just gone too high waayy too fast!
2. The end of an era.
I think most of us here all know that the pinball era did in fact die. Mainly in the 90's. I am 41 and I saw this with my own two eyes. I watch less and less pins in the arcade then. And the ones I saw no one was playing. Even I myself was not much of a pin player. I was attracted to the Street Fighters and Mortal Kombats. As was everyone else. The Adams family just sit there all alone. Or you saw 2 people over in that section.
Now why is this relevant? Well I personally believe most people become pin owners between the age of 40-60. At 40 we all want to relive our past and finally have the disposable income to make this a reality. But guess what... the 30s crowd now in 10 years won't have a pinball memory to even remember. Because I watched the arcades die. So the next 40 year old crowd are the xbox and playstation generation.
So I personally see demand dropping rapidly in new buyers.
3. Look at prices of each type of pin.
EM's were once hot, now they are dirt cheap. Why? Because those who grew up playing those are up there in age and passing away slowly and not many left want them. At the moment 90s pins are on fire because they are the ones WE grew up playing. So we are hitting the last era. The DMD era.
4. Supply and Demand.
The demand is going to drop eventually. And supply doesn't seem to be a problem. I see 50 A titles a day pop up for sale. And I am sure a lot of you see more. They are not hard to find. Because people are paying so much currently that those who got them a decade ago cheap are cashing in big flipping them.
But those buying now.. well I see a loss in the future if held too long.
5. New generation of players.
Sure, there seems to be this surge of new pin interest. These "Bar-cades" popping up and new young folk are playing. But sadly the prices are running them off. I've personally heard so many saying "I could get a car for that much". So this new group of people (that we need badly to help regrow things) have no interest in buying one. The only people paying these prices are deep pocket older folks who are paying for the nostalgia.
If you have no childhood memories, you aren't going to spend 8k on a machine.
6. Pockets are full.
All those deep pocket (I gotta have it) folk are getting their fill. And soon they will no longer be buying once they get what they want. And... eventually taking huge loses on their collection of I am correct in my prediction. All hobbies have a surge. Suckers come in, the hobbies dies down and that is that. Vinyl had a surge. Retro consoles are surging but will soon fall.
8k for NIB or decades of wear and tear. Sure we all love original but playfield sadly take beatings.
So.... what is your opinion? I'll attach a poll as well.
Do you see it continuing to get out of control? Or do you see an economic bubble bursting soon and pin prices collapsing?