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(Topic ID: 262900)

Why do JJP NIB depreciate faster than the rest?


By delt31

7 months ago



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#1 7 months ago

To be clear, this is not a fanboy topic as many are aware I judge all pinball companies equally and have no alliance. I own games from all of them and needless to say call them all out when it’s deserved.

My question is we can all agree JJP quality is top notch compared to competitors. Their games are almost all highly rated on the top 100. However for some reason, NIB JJP almost instantly drop 500-800 from NIB (9500 goes to 8800 very quickly on the used market and 8500 isn’t too far behind). Wonka the lastest but DI faced the same fate. Hobbit is one of the best buy’s as a result. Pirates is only expensive b/c it’s no longer being made and likely never will (Disney).

Why is that though? Compared to sterns, the drop rate I don’t believe is nearly as fast. Yes they have some LE sales clunkers that dropped quick (Monsters, BK, Sth) but typically those games don’t see they same type of drop that quickly.

I initially thought it was the higher end price they start with on almost all of their games BUT the Wonka standard came out with a great price and that game has also dropped around 1k+ to 6500 and I see them sit still! Dialed in is now more than 2k lower vs 9500 start.

So what do you guys think is driving this? It’s great for used market so I’m not complaining but it’s got to drive JJP nuts b/c the product they produce is typically very good.

45
#2 7 months ago

It's because they weigh so much that it costs extra to get friends to help move them.

Beer isn't free.

10
#3 7 months ago

Not the case for POTC LE.

#4 7 months ago
Quoted from delt31:

Yes they have some LE clunkers that dropped quick (Monsters, BK, Sth)

Your answer is right there All the JJPs are clunkers. Some people seem to enjoy each of them (well, minus Hobbit), but the appeal is always mixed.

Also, all their prices are way high compared to the other manufacturers. Some people will still buy at that price, but the second hand market seems to want them to come down to a more reasonable price point compared to what other games are available

#5 7 months ago

They cost more, so even a similar percentage of depreciation will be “more,” and, they are never truly off the line. They’ve been cranking out WOZ for 7 years pretty steadily.

The one game they ran briefly and haven’t run again has appreciated significantly, POTC.

*this is assuming the OP’s premise is true; I don’t exact keep abreast on Jjp aftermarket pricing

#6 7 months ago
Quoted from Toucanf16:

Not the case for POTC LE.

yeah I mentioned that's b/c it's not being made anymore.

Quoted from zacaj:

Your answer is right there All the JJPs are clunkers. Some people seem to enjoy each of them (well, minus Hobbit), but the appeal is always mixed.
Also, all their prices are way high compared to the other manufacturers. Some people will still buy at that price, but the second hand market seems to want them to come down to a more reasonable price point compared to what other games are available

I changed to sales clunkers - not trying to inject my own opinion on if they are good or not.

29
#7 7 months ago

1. Because their LE means nothing, there’s no incentive to gobble them up new or grab the first one you see used.

2. Themes and/or art/sound package aren’t grabbing people.

3. They’re so expensive, they can’t be flipped for more. They’re already selling at “in demand scalper price” when they’re not in demand (see 1 and 2).

10
#8 7 months ago
Quoted from delt31:

NIB JJP almost instantly drop 500-800 from NIB

All manufacturers experience a price drop on the used market. Some Stern games have dropped more than that on the used market.

Quoted from delt31:

Why is that though? Compared to sterns, the drop rate I don’t believe is nearly as fast. Yes they have some LE sales clunkers that dropped quick (Monsters, BK, Sth) but typically those games don’t see they same type of drop that quickly.

A few years ago, NIB/HUO games appreciated, partly because there were a limited number of new games available. Now, there is an abundance of new games coming out throughout the year. People tend to cycle through them a lot faster these days, so there really isn't a shortage of either NIB or HUO games available. For prices to go up, availability needs to be low, and demand needs to be high. For most newer games, availability is high, and demand is moderate.

The only exceptions right now that I can think of are TBL and Aliens, mainly because availability is limited and they are desirable.

#9 7 months ago

New games depreciate hard, with very few exceptions. And Greg is on point with the LE moniker being meaningless. I don't think JJP cares how much the games sell for on the secondary market. They may track them to gauge interest in running more.

#10 7 months ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

1. Because their LE means nothing, there’s no incentive to gobble them up new or grab the first one you see used.

I think it´s a terrible idea to sell a product with rarity as it´s merit.
If you have a good product, it will probebly hurt the company more over time, having rare versions of it, just look at afm(r)LE.

The incentive to buy something should never be it´s rare, but it´s good.
Over time 20years+ rarity might be a viable attribute on the other hand rare=less spare parts.

#11 7 months ago

I'm not really sure JJP games depreciate that much more than Stern does. Most used JP's pros are going for $5000-$5300 and MSRP for $6100 now. I know most don't pay MSRP, but still. Percentage-wise, it isn't that different.

#12 7 months ago
Quoted from RC_like_the_cola:

New games depreciate hard, with very few exceptions. And Greg is on point with the LE moniker being meaningless. I don't think JJP cares how much the games sell for on the secondary market. They may track them to gauge interest in running more.

Neither should they, the true test of value is over time. The thread is in a sense not on point, since all their games is still available new, besides the one (pirates).

I´m 100% certain that most of their games will hold up a lot better over time, then say spike games for example.

#13 7 months ago

Not sure if that's really true as many recent Stern LE's have depreciated close to $2k within a year or so. Around the metro Detroit area here in Michigan I could probably sell my Hobbit LE for $7k ($500 loss), WOZ ECLE for $7.5k (even for me), Dialed In LE for $7800 ($1200 loss), and Pirates LE for $12k ($2500 profit) so. I'm very happy with all of that. Would have lost more buying a Black Knight LE, Munsters LE, or say Guardians LE.

At the end of the day there's only so many buyers at the higher price points which I think affects resale value. Also, high LE prices with high LE counts hurts resale value as well. Batman LE's have held their value partially because only 125 were made. Had 500 or 1000 been made values would be lower.

#14 7 months ago
Quoted from Dr-pin:

Over time 20years+ rarity might be a viable attribute on the other hand rare=less spare parts.

If pinball has taught us anything over the last 10+ years I’ve been in the hobby, that’s not true. I couldn’t get parts for hardly anything 10 years ago... now people build games from scratch with the parts that are available.

#15 7 months ago
Quoted from tilted81:

If pinball has taught us anything over the last 10+ year I’ve been in the hobby that’s not true. I couldn’t get parts for hardly anything 10 years ago... now people build games from scratch with the parts that are available.

It depends on the said part. A ramp for certain, but how will a spike board or an advanced mech fare?
I for one would feel more comfortable ten years down the line having a spike board for jurrasic park break, rather then a wwe?
(i wouldn´t be comfortable with any but thats besides the point.)

White water topper?

#16 7 months ago

Not sure I agree with your premise. Are there data to support this?

#17 7 months ago
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

Not sure I agree with your premise. Are there data to support this?

Location, game condition, build dates, sellers going for a quick sale versus holding out etc, can all affect pricing. One game that goes for $7500 after sitting for months in one area may go quickly for $8k in another.

#18 7 months ago
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

Not sure I agree with your premise. Are there data to support this?

It’s pinside. Almost all data is completely made up!

From BOM to sales numbers to everything else...

#19 7 months ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

It’s pinside. Almost all data is completely made up!
From BOM to sales numbers to everything else...

Using my own experience (aka real world!)

JP Prem - cost 7200, used 6800? Look at Wonka Std. Great theme, good cost - that game was 7500 NIB, people struggle to sell at 6500. I use this example b/c it's the first one that broke my initial thoughts about why this was happening as Wonka price was much lower than typical LE (9500).

You could insert a number of stern premium games for JP. And yes, I get that they do have BK prem which debunks this but for JJP, the pattern seems more consistent. Was just curious especially b/c I believe JJP is offering the higher end quality although some question does that equal higher end experience.

#20 7 months ago

JJP does seem to drop a little more than Stern. American and Spooky games really fall off as well.

#21 7 months ago

Because, in my opinion, they just aren't that good of games (excluding POTC...which not shockingly is the one to not depreciate). Sure, they are impressive, loaded, pretty. But that wears off and you are left with gameplay that is B level at best...definitely not worth the pricetag to me. Plus higher price point games are almost always more difficult to sell than lower price games. The buyer pool is much more limited, especially second hand buyers, and they are going to spend the money on better games.

#22 7 months ago
Quoted from Jediturtle:

Because they just aren't that good of games (excluding POTC...which not shockingly is the one to not depreciate). Sure, they are impressive, loaded, pretty. But that wears off and you are left with gameplay that is B level at best...definitely not worth the pricetag. Plus higher price point games are almost always more difficult to sell than lower price games. The buyer pool is much more limited, especially second hand buyers, and they are going to spend the money on better games.

A ton of people will disagree with you and say that many Sterns are “B level” compared to any JJP title. 2 plastic ramps and orbits for $6k with little else? Who cares if it’s fast when that’s all that is the game. Pass.

#23 7 months ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

A ton of people will disagree with you and say that many Sterns are “B level” compared to any JJP title.

I agree, there are more Stern B level games than JJP, but Stern does release several more games per year. They all can't be winners.

I love DI, still probably my favorite.

#24 7 months ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

A ton of people will disagree with you and say that many Sterns are “B level” compared to any JJP title.

I'm sure there are people that think that. It is good we all have options to match our opinions! Not sure where I compared JJP to Stern in my post. Just stating my opinion as to why there is a large drop in JJP second hand prices. I'm glad they exist, and glad people love them, but, in my opinion, once you get past the flash and sizzle, they just aren't good enough games to justify their pricetag (again...POTC excluded).

#25 7 months ago

Your math seems a bit off. For instance:

Quoted from delt31:

9500 goes to 8800

That means the value is quickly 92% of the original game (in most cases, with exceptions, blah blah blah).

A Stern game, say a Pro, will go from 5600 to 5000 very quickly, which is 89% of it's original value.

Therefore, JJP holds value better.

#26 7 months ago
Quoted from delt31:

Using my own experience (aka real world!)
JP Prem - cost 7200, used 6800? Look at Wonka Std. Great theme, good cost - that game was 7500 NIB, people struggle to sell at 6500.

You might be a JJP Fanboy if the answer to this question is not obvious to you. Stern JP beats the living hell out of Wonka. It's not even close. Better titles hold their value better. Always have.

#27 7 months ago
Quoted from NorCalRealtor:

You might be a JJP Fanboy if the answer to this question is not obvious to you. Stern JP beats the living hell out of Wonka. It's not even close. Better titles hold their value better. Always have.

Says one of Pinsides top Stern fanboys!

#28 7 months ago
Quoted from DaveH:

Your math seems a bit off. For instance:

That means the value is quickly 92% of the original game (in most cases, with exceptions, blah blah blah).
A Stern game, say a Pro, will go from 5600 to 5000 very quickly, which is 89% of it's original value.
Therefore, JJP holds value better.

Pre $100 increase.....5600 is high end to pay NIB on a stern. 5k is also low to get one used. 9500 is what JJP forces others to sell at. It's an immediate fall from there. Not sure your point though. If you're saying a stern pro depreciates faster than a JJP LE, I believe the majority would disagree.

Quoted from NorCalRealtor:

You might be a JJP Fanboy if the answer to this question is not obvious to you. Stern JP beats the living hell out of Wonka. It's not even close. Better titles hold their value better. Always have.

Please don't make this into a fanboy thread.

#29 7 months ago

how much are NIB stern pro going for these days? every distributor has a set price they have to follow right?

#30 7 months ago
Quoted from V4Vendetta:

how much are NIB stern pro going for these days?

You can find them for less than $5,600, but that's what they'll advertise, just talk to a few distributors.

#31 7 months ago
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

Not sure I agree with your premise. Are there data to support this?

I do love it when the "data guys" use statistical charts.

#32 7 months ago
Quoted from delt31:

Pre $100 increase.....5600 is high end to pay NIB on a stern. 5k is also low to get one used. 9500 is what JJP forces others to sell at. It's an immediate fall from there. Not sure your point though. If you're saying a stern pro depreciates faster than a JJP LE, I believe the majority would disagree.

Please don't make this into a fanboy thread.

Don't you mean that $5K is the high end for a HUO Stern Pro? JP2 and Deadpool Pro's seem to top out around $5K on the used market. I sold my Maiden Pro HUO a few months back for $4700 with a shaker. I do think that the higher priced games depreciate at a slightly higher rate than Stern Pro's because there is more room to fall, but most games seem to take at least a 15% drop after opening the box.

#33 7 months ago

What time frame ?

In the last 7 or 8 years. JJP has made 5 new games, not counting a few variations on WOZ or Hobbit.

How many other manufacturers new games came out in that time frame ?

Every one wants the new shiny.

So almost every game from any manufacturer is going to lose value when a new one comes out.

Every time a new title shows up, recent other games come up for sale on Pinside. We see it every time.

LTG : )

#34 7 months ago
Quoted from MikeS:

Don't you mean that $5K is the high end for a HUO Stern Pro? JP2 and Deadpool Pro's seem to top out around $5K on the used market. I sold my Maiden Pro HUO a few months back for $4700 with a shaker. I do think that the higher priced games depreciate at a slightly higher rate than Stern Pro's because there is more room to fall, but most games seem to take at least a 15% drop after opening the box.

good point - to clarify, I meant the period when they are initially released (since the focus is in the earlier stages of their sales life cycle, depreciation seems faster for JJP).

I would agree that 5k pro for stern as it gets older and older trends as the high end.

-1
#35 7 months ago

Pinball is hard!! All of this math hurts my brain. Can't wait for Bernie to give me pinballs for free. Then I wont have to worry about depreciation Yay!!! Although I will probably be pissed that only pros will be free. I want my free LE's!

#36 7 months ago

In trying to buy I would say I don't see it the same as you. Maybe it is simply game specific, but I've been in the market over a year for a DI and honestly the price on that has held steady even given the onslaught of new games coming out.

I think to others points though the primary reasons are multiple...2 of which are, they keep cranking out said games, and they don't have as large a following of people who like their games as Stern does. A third would be as others have said, they are already at the top end of the market, it only makes sense they would depreciate more on the short side. They still find a bottom though and stay there for the most part.

#37 7 months ago

For whatever reason JJP games have eluded me because they haven't dropped enough on the HUO market. The two I've been most interested in were WOZ and JPOTC. At one point in time I had a WOZ on pre-order but ended up canceling because I bought a house in the time-frame I was waiting and needed the cash. I figured since they were $6500 initially that I would one day be able to pickup another one in the high $5K range which never happened. I've always liked JPOTC but didn't want to buy NIB and take the depreciation hit and hoped to find one HUO for less but we all know what happened there.

#38 7 months ago

Also might be their price is not as fixed as Stern or CGC. I seem to recall Black Friday or friend of the distributer price more common on JJP than on Stern which is much tighter on what the dealer can sell.

If everyone is paying the same on Stern and not on JJP maybe the lower prices will catch on to all JJP games.

#39 7 months ago
Quoted from rai:

Also might be their price is not as fixed as Stern or CGC. I seem to recall Black Friday or friend of the distributer price more common on JJP than on Stern which is much tighter on what the dealer can sell.
If everyone is paying the same on Stern and not on JJP maybe the lower prices will catch on to all JJP games.

This surprises me. I thought there was zero wiggle room on JJP titles. I know from experience that a NIB Stern can be all over the place on actual purchase price (not advertised price).

#40 7 months ago
Quoted from RC_like_the_cola:

This surprises me. I thought there was zero wiggle room on JJP titles. I know from experience that a NIB Stern can be all over the place on actual purchase price (not advertised price).

I was under the same impression and am curious about this. I understand there are discounts on show models, but NIB?

#41 7 months ago
Quoted from delt31:

Pre $100 increase.....5600 is high end to pay NIB on a stern. 5k is also low to get one used.

It doesn't seem that high. $5600 was where I was getting quotes.

As for 5k being low on a used one, no it isn't. Look through the marketplace. They will sell for around that. The higher priced current games seem to sit, but then they hit the sweet spot of 5k and they switch to sale pending.

Of course, I'm only using data I keep seeing. You might be seeing different where you are.

#42 7 months ago

Same reason a $400,000 house appreciates more than a $250,000 house. Percentages are about the same for most games regardless of company. Buy a new car for $50k, you’ll lose more than someone who bought the $30k car. Simple economics and math. Occasionally an outlier like potc or AC/DC a few years back happen, but again it’s economics supply and demand.

#43 7 months ago
Quoted from Dr-pin:

I think it´s a terrible idea to sell a product with rarity as it´s merit.

It is what it is & it’s the reason we still have new pinball. The marketing hype of “get it now or pay the scalpers” works.

This is a niche, expensive product. People are more motivated if there’s some sense of “special” to a game. I like some JJP games, but I’ve never been motivated to buy a new one...because I could just get one whenever down the road for less. Rick & Morty on the other hand...I was motivated to buy it right away.

As for the topic - appreciation or depreciation. Appreciation only happens with short supply & high demand. No JJP has that. They’re all “unlimited” for all intents and purposes. A 1500 unit LE isn’t limited...even less so when there are multiple other editions & variant re-runs like WOZ Ruby Red, Yellow Brick Road.

#44 7 months ago

Polynomials, or it didn’t happen

#45 7 months ago
Quoted from srmonte:

Pinball is hard!! All of this math hurts my brain. Can't wait for Bernie to give me pinballs for free. Then I wont have to worry about depreciation Yay!!! Although I will probably be pissed that only pros will be free. I want my free LE's!

Not near as hard as paper towel math!

0AA21F70-EB88-4588-8653-A4423301E24D (resized).jpeg
#46 7 months ago

Well, I have owned around 70 games but zero JJP.

Why?

Combination of theme and gameplay - they just don't have that one more game aspect that Sterns have.

And their LE/CE/SUPERDUPERLE just means nothing.

#47 7 months ago
Quoted from Shapeshifter:

Well, I have owned around 70 games but zero JJP.
Why?
Combination of theme and gameplay - they just don't have that one more game aspect that Sterns have.
And their LE/CE/SUPERDUPERLE just means nothing.

Have you played Wonka?? Because that game certainly gives me the "just one more"...

#48 7 months ago

I’ve walked away from my fair share of sterns to thinking they were boring or simply no good. I like the jjp themes and games, and I like many stern themes and games. Doesn’t mean any are more or less susceptible to depreciation. Each game has its own market. Again, supply and demand. A zillion Metallica games out at a very reasonable price nowadays, and it’s a great theme and game, but due to a zillion of them being made, prices are lower on it.

#49 7 months ago
Quoted from Zablon:

but I've been in the market over a year for a DI and honestly the price on that has held steady even given the onslaught of new games coming out.

I had my HUO DI LE listed for awhile at $7300 with only tire kickers. Eventually sold it for $7K. And this was only about 8 weeks ago.

Quoted from PanzerFreak:

Dialed In LE for $7800 ($1200 loss)

I might've thought the same thing until I listed it.

#50 7 months ago
Quoted from RTS:

I had my HUO DI LE listed for awhile at $7300 with only tire kickers. Eventually sold it for $7K. And this was only about 8 weeks ago.

I might've thought the same thing until I listed it.

I honestly think that the Dialed In theme confuses those that haven't played it. I knew nothing of the disaster concept until I played it.

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