Who is in on Tesla model 3 ?

(Topic ID: 184461)

Who is in on Tesla model 3 ?


By pinballrockstar

1 year ago



Topic Stats

  • 2,424 posts
  • 173 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 3 days ago by DCFAN
  • Topic is favorited by 18 Pinsiders

You

Topic poll

“Are you in on the model 3?”

  • Hell yes! 43 votes
    13%
  • I am considering! 71 votes
    22%
  • Hard to part with fossil fuel 13 votes
    4%
  • I don't care about my carbon footprint 70 votes
    22%
  • No 127 votes
    39%

(324 votes)

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There are 2424 posts in this topic. You are on page 48 of 49.
#2351 53 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

Kia soul EV is going to be 201hp equivalent, 240 mile range, and an estimated price of $33k. Yes a base model3 isn't much higher, but when is that base model going to be available? Hopefully before this comes out next year. Plus it still qualifies for the $7500 tax incentive, which would drop the cost to $25.5k
https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-kia-soul-ev-gets-much-better-range-and-deserve-1830748157

Yeah but can you haul a pin in it?

#2352 53 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

Yeah but can you haul a pin in it?

Can you in a model3?

#2353 53 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

GM getting the double whammy, Trump is planning to cut EV subsidies because of dismal sales of the BOLT
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/27/business/gm-trump-subsidies/index.html

No, Trump isn't planning on cutting EV subsidies because of dismal sales of the Bolt. He's planning on cutting it because he seriously has no idea how the tax works.

First, it's a consumer tax break. GM doesn't get it. The person who buys the Bolt does.

Secondly, it is good for all automakers. If they remove it, they remove it also from all the other automakers, not just GM.

Thirdly, the credit goes away when a certain amount of cars are built incrementally. Turns out, GM is *REALLY* close to having their tax credit start to be reduced.

So, even if Trump could somehow make the tax go away himself without congress (he can't, and with some Republican Senators looking to revise and *extend* it, that won't happen), he would manage to essentially put GM, who has already invested more in EV adoption than say, Ford, into a position that is further ahead. It would level the playing field for everyone, but since investment hasn't been level that means those in the lead would just be WAY MORE in the lead. Which GM *is definitely up there* more than most.

Trump also talked about the Chicken Tax going away, which is a tariff for light trucks and would screw Ford just as hard as anyone else. It wouldn't hold up in court to exempt just GM from that thing.

As for the Bolt not selling well, it's selling fine in a lot of markets they just aren't making that many of them, which is actually sort of a miracle because at least in my limited time, their dealer network SUCKS and actively belittled the Bolt (and sort of me for wanting to look at it, and Mary Barra for thinking anyone would want one) when I went to drive it. It was surreal.

To me the Bolt feels like a Spark or whatever their tiny gas car is, but like $25k more was also not great. Chevy made the mistake that I think a lot of legacy automakers are making which is to assume the only people who would want a Bolt are tree hugging hippies, and so they could make a cheap looking and feeling car interior and charge a premium price for it because they can claim it's to market before Tesla and all the tree huggers would buy it first.

But, the people buying Teslas are definitely not all tree huggers, and even if you have a wait a bit, a base Model 3 with a $3750 tax break (so about $31250) is still a LOT more enticing than a base Bolt with a $7500 tax break (or around $30,000). And the experience of walking into a Chevy dealership and being told the Bolt only works "if you don't go anywhere" and it requires "all the same maintenance" and "costs more than gas" sure as hell isn't selling anyone on it.

At least after I left they did call and tell me that they made an error and the battery didn't need to be regularly replaced every few years.

#2354 52 days ago

Hoovie's garage reviews the used tesla he bought 6 months ago

#2355 52 days ago

https://insideevs.com/volkswagens-21000-future-ev-e-up/

"It’s great to hear that VW is updating their electric subcompact, but this ~$21,000 future EV didn’t turn out to be the Tesla competitor that Bloomberg had predicted"

#2356 46 days ago

Eventually some breakthrough tech will take the batteries to the next level, here is one that may have potential:

https://www.engadget.com/2018/12/07/fluoride-battery-breakthrough-evs/?yptr=yahoo

#2358 45 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

this is why Elon is awesome

Amazing. I don’t love everything he does, but that’s vision. And capitalism all in one.

#2359 41 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

this is why Elon is awesome

I watched that clip on 60 minutes on Sunday night. It was awesome! It made me love Elon and his vision even more.

By the way, I just bought a Ford F150 and I ordered the V8.

Figure that one out bitches!!

QSS

#2360 40 days ago

Porsche and bmw testing 80% charging in 15 minutes, double the capacity of tesla.. however this is a test battery that has not been tested for lifecycle, and it requires secondary cooling.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-12-13/bmw-porsche-boast-three-minute-charging-jolt-for-electric-cars

#2361 40 days ago

teslaratti posted an article about rivian's battery group
https://www.teslarati.com/rivian-battery-lab-irvine-california-megapack-production/

"Rivian’s Executive Director of Engineering and Programs, Mark Vinnels, told Teslarati that they dropped the vehicle on a boulder from 2 ft in the air, just to be able to verify the battery pack’s integrity in extreme off-road situations."

at least they are taking battery tech seriously regardless of whether they make it or not

#2362 36 days ago

Vw's electric car is announced, rumored to be called neo.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/12/17/vw-id-range-and-more-info/

Anyone else think it looks a little bit like the cop car from demolition man?
vw_neo (resized).jpg
demoman-cop_car (resized).jpg

#2363 36 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

Vw's electric car is announced, rumored to be called neo.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/12/17/vw-id-range-and-more-info/
Anyone else think it looks a little bit like the cop car from demolition man?
[quoted image]
[quoted image]

It does not look like something that would have mass appeal in the US because of the lack of utility. I also would not want to be the passenger in the back if the car was rear-ended. There is a reason SUVs and trucks are dominating car sales in the US. People want a lot of space to haul stuff along with the family.

#2364 36 days ago

I like the VW, if they can keep the price down they could sell a lot of these. Perfect for young people, college crowd, I don’t know sales numbers but you still see lots of Golfs and Rabbits on the road. They took a hit with the whole diesel thing but this could bounce them right back. The hot hatch has always been strong in Europe.

#2365 33 days ago

Ok this innovation might actually push me to buy a 3:

https://twitter.com/Attack/status/1075457030620569600

#2367 33 days ago

SOLO? 100 mile range, 82mph top speed, 0-60 in 8 seconds. Not great, but cheap

https://electrameccanica.com/product/solo-reservation

$15k, but there may not be any tax incentives because it's technically not a car since it has only 3 wheels
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4223279-design-flaw-prevents-california-residents-obtaining-electrameccanica-cars-virtually-cost

#2368 32 days ago

I've had my Model 3 about 7 months now, and the honeymoon period hasn't ended yet. Tesla nailed so many things, it just never gets old. I'm very much looking forward to some improvements in self driving next year. Mainly, I can't wait for the day when I don't have to pay attention. I don't mind being there in case the car says I need to take control back, but I just want to pitch my seat back, close my eyes and listen to some music.

Driving is so much less awful in a Model 3....

#2369 32 days ago

i was getting confused what Tesla's definition of success was with autonomy (3,4,5), this article helped: https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2018/03/11/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-self-driving-next-year/amp/

Quoted from jalpert:

I just want to pitch my seat back, close my eyes and listen to some music

that's indeed what they are shooting for.

a cool use case i saw is how when you do one way hikes and have to stage a car at the end point. that the car could move itself to the destination location after dropping you off. this was in some rivian article but would apply to all.

exciting times, next 10 years is going to be a revolution in transportation

1 week later
#2372 19 days ago

This months report isn’t as incredible as some were hoping. The stock taking a hit because of a $2k price decrease is not good, but reducing your price to help offset the absent government credit helps your public relations. The production numbers were lower then forecast, but triple the numbers of this time last year. Tesla sets lofty goal and usually comes short, but there is no denying their progress.

The haters will say that this proves that they’re dying before our eyes. The fanboys say if next year progresses like this year did, the. The future looks pretty bright.

I like this video, it’s fun. But realistically it’s not that impressive. There are lots of cars that could drag a pickup with only its emergency break on. Probably anything with 250hp and 4 wheel drive.

#2373 19 days ago
Quoted from Luckydogg420:

I like this video, it’s fun. But realistically it’s not that impressive. There are lots of cars that could drag a pickup with only its emergency break on. Probably anything with 250hp and 4 wheel drive.

No it's not necessarily impressive, I've seen videos of tesla cars towing semitrucks (because it has the torque and 4-wheel drive). I was more posting this because I can't believe there are such anti-electric a-holes that are seriously purposely blocking chargers.

#2374 19 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

I can't believe there are such anti-electric a-holes that are seriously purposely blocking chargers.

Oh, that’s not surprising at all. It takes a special breed of asshole to think that’s a good idea, kinda like these guys that “roll coal” with their diesel trucks

#2375 19 days ago
Quoted from Luckydogg420:

Oh, that’s not surprising at all. It takes a special breed of asshole to think that’s a good idea, kinda like these guys that “roll coal” with their diesel trucks

“Special breed”...
Translation: Inbred.

#2376 19 days ago

don't mean to hyperpost, but found this interesting. This is Chevy's concept for a drag ready Camaro. 800 volts and as much horsepower. What intrigues me is that they made sure they chose a motor that easily bolts up to most of Chevy's existing transmissions which if this is successful they could possibly offer a DIY kit to convert older chevy vehicles. Lord knows there are a ton of used cheap chevy's out there, many with blown engines that would be a perfect fit for something like this.


#2377 17 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

SOLO? 100 mile range, 82mph top speed, 0-60 in 8 seconds. Not great, but cheap
https://electrameccanica.com/product/solo-reservation
$15k, but there may not be any tax incentives because it's technically not a car since it has only 3 wheels
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4223279-design-flaw-prevents-california-residents-obtaining-electrameccanica-cars-virtually-cost

Love my Model 3 .... but actually want one of these too.

#2378 15 days ago
Quoted from Luckydogg420:

The stock taking a hit because of a $2k price decrease is not good, but reducing your price to help offset the absent government credit helps your public relations. The production numbers were lower then forecast, but triple the numbers of this time last year. Tesla sets lofty goal and usually comes short, but there is no denying their progress.

From what I saw, the production numbers were slightly higher than most consensus numbers were, but not as high as a few outliers. The stock supposedly took a hit because there was somewhere like 3000 Model 3s in the country that hadn't been sold yet (oh noes! That's like... three days of production?!) and the $2k price decrease that showed that "demand was softening" which is absolutely stupid because when the tax credit got halved, it's like the car got an additional $3750 price increase, so a $2k decrease still ends up with anyone buying today paying $1750 more than they did a week ago.

Tesla stock, thanks to so many of the non-institutional investors / shorters being so emotional it seems, tends to make wild swings for really stupid reasons.

Tesla was making enough on the M3 (and all their Models) to weather the hit just fine. They also haven't even started lease programs. What happens when GM, who is already believed to be losing money on every Bolt sold, and which those have cratered in sales recently too, loses half the tax credit in at the end of Q1?

(As an aside, I believe a deal will be kept to extend the tax credit in some way in the next few months, as it doesn't look good for anyone if we have the American companies not getting the tax credit any more, while we subsidize foreign competitors coming in and selling their versions of electric cars. It'll get really ugly looking for all sides if companies like NIO start really making a move into the space... And, I do think that it will stay, as enough representatives understand that the electrification of transportation is definitely the future, and right now the US (and for that matter, Germany is realizing this too) are starting to fall behind the Chinese, where 6%+ of new car sales are now electric...)

#2379 14 days ago

yet again why I've lost faith in toyota, they play it too safe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=87&v=naN40spDu9c

toyota-electric-sales (resized).png
#2380 13 days ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

yet again why I've lost faith in toyota, they play it too safe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=87&v=naN40spDu9c[quoted image]

They are still selling huge volumes of gas cars (2.4 million just in the US) so they can wait until the infrastructure and technology is more refined to push electric sales:

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/01/03/gm-us-new-vehicle-sales-fall/

#2381 13 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

They are still selling huge volumes of gas cars (2.4 million just in the US) so they can wait until the infrastructure and technology is more refined to push electric sales:
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/01/03/gm-us-new-vehicle-sales-fall/

That’s what Blockbuster, Sears, and Kodak said.

#2382 13 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

That’s what Blockbuster, Sears, and Kodak said.

I believe Toyota has been working on the technology behind the scenes. Right now they probably make way more money churning out the same old same old. I am sure they will jump in head first when their sales of gas guzzlers start to significantly slip. One way for that to happen quicker is for the existing electric car makers to make electric cars that are more affordable (non-luxury) and more truck/SUV than luxury sedan.

#2383 13 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

I believe Toyota has been working on the technology behind the scenes. Right now they probably make way more money churning out the same old same old. I am sure they will jump in head first when their sales of gas guzzlers start to significantly slip. One way for that to happen quicker is for the existing electric car makers to make electric cars that are more affordable (non-luxury) and more truck/SUV than luxury sedan.

I remember when Amazon was starting out, people were saying that once Sears saw that the market was large enough, they would jump in with both feet and crush them.

Toyota has been working on fuel cell because for some reason, Japan believes that will be a thing in the future. It won't for a whole slew of reasons.

Once manufacturing capability ramps up to allow affordable EVs, only the current manufacturers will have that capacity. It's been proven time after time in the last year or so that Tesla's ev manufacturing woes isn't because they are Tesla but because no one has quite figured it out. Porsche made a huge investment and their employees had to agree to no wage increases for something crazy like five years to swap the lines. VW keeps whining they can't do it cheaply.

Tesla is far ahead of everyone else on cost to build, and it's dropping. Toyota won't have that benefit, and if electric cars catch on, they will have giant facilities to make cars that aren't wanted any more, and a cost of billions to convert their lines to electric, which even if they do at three years time puts them far behind people already doing it.

It's easier to feel good about the future of an auto start up (like Rivian) today than a legacy one knowing how close their margins are and how a small drop in sales caused the entire industry to implode eight years ago.

-1
#2384 13 days ago
Quoted from goatdan:

I remember when Amazon was starting out, people were saying that once Sears saw that the market was large enough, they would jump in with both feet and crush them.
Toyota has been working on fuel cell because for some reason, Japan believes that will be a thing in the future. It won't for a whole slew of reasons.
Once manufacturing capability ramps up to allow affordable EVs, only the current manufacturers will have that capacity. It's been proven time after time in the last year or so that Tesla's ev manufacturing woes isn't because they are Tesla but because no one has quite figured it out. Porsche made a huge investment and their employees had to agree to no wage increases for something crazy like five years to swap the lines. VW keeps whining they can't do it cheaply.
Tesla is far ahead of everyone else on cost to build, and it's dropping. Toyota won't have that benefit, and if electric cars catch on, they will have giant facilities to make cars that aren't wanted any more, and a cost of billions to convert their lines to electric, which even if they do at three years time puts them far behind people already doing it.
It's easier to feel good about the future of an auto start up (like Rivian) today than a legacy one knowing how close their margins are and how a small drop in sales caused the entire industry to implode eight years ago.

How many years do you think Toyota has until they are not making decent profits? I don't see EVs taking the majority of the automobile (cars/trucks/SUVs combined) market for at least 15 years (likely many more years than that unless the battery technology significantly improves).

#2385 13 days ago

I also believe the batteries will be made for the majority of car makers by a supplier rather than by the auto makers.

#2386 13 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

How many years do you think Toyota has until they are not making decent profits? I don't see EVs taking the majority of the automobile (cars/trucks/SUVs combined) market for at least 15 years (likely many more years than that unless the battery technology significantly improves).

What do you see as the flaw with current battery tech? I get more than enough range and never having to stop and fill the tank is amazing.

-1
#2387 13 days ago
Quoted from Darscot:

What do you see as the flaw with current battery tech? I get more than enough range and never having to stop and fill the tank is amazing.

It is not really a flaw but has major room for improvement. It needs to be comparable to current gas cars to to get the masses to buy in. That means 400 to 500 miles of range and only a few minutes to charge. Also, the present batteries are too expensive. Most people cannot afford a car that is $30k or higher. Once the technology is refined and improved then prices will go down as with any technology.
Solid state batteries will hopefully pan out. Toyota is supposedly working on that from what I just read in various articles available from 2017.

#2388 13 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

It needs to be comparable to current gas cars to to get the masses to buy in. That means 400 to 500 miles of range and only a few minutes to charge. Also, the present batteries are too expensive. Most people cannot afford a car that is $30k or higher. Once the technology is refined and improved then prices will go down as with any technology.
Solid state batteries will hopefully pan out. Toyota is supposedly working on that from what I just read in various articles available from 2017.

Yeah not many cars actually have 500 miles of range, nor does your average person ever drive anywhere near that distance without a break. Once you drive an EV you realize you never spend any time charging it. The car charges itself while you get on with your life. You never actually spend time standing around like you do with a gas car. My wife constantly takes my Tesla with the sole reason being she hates pumping gas. The whole range charging vs filling is really an apples and oranges debate, there is no comparison. I guarantee you spend way more time standing at the pump in a gas car than you spend charging an EV.

#2389 13 days ago
Quoted from Darscot:

Yeah not many cars actually have 500 miles of range, nor does your average person ever drive anywhere near that distance without a break. Once you drive an EV you realize you never spend any time charging it. The car charges itself while you get on with your life. You never actually spend time standing around like you do with a gas car. My wife constantly takes my Tesla with the sole reason being she hates pumping gas. The whole range charging vs filling is really an apples and oranges debate, there is no comparison. I guarantee you spend way more time standing at the pump in a gas car than you spend charging an EV.

What about people that live at an apartment or condo? They won't have home charging access, not even 120 volt connection allowed or available.

#2390 12 days ago

As an owner of a Model 3 Performance and Model X P100D, seeing this stuff going on really depresses me. While my service so far has been exceptional in the Bay area, this sort of stuff could truly ruin Tesla. Esp since they rely on no marketing, and mostly word of mouth and viral marketing.

So much amazing tech, forward thinking. And this is such a dumb ass problem. Sure you can hand waive it as growing pains. But model 3 puts them in the main stream. And now this is festering into a major block. I hope it's their highest priority in 2019. As people are burned, they don't give second chances.

And a Tesla's lovers objective opinion about the issue:

#2391 12 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

What about people that live at an apartment or condo? They won't have home charging access, not even 120 volt connection allowed or available.

Yeah, I guess the debate is more about infrastructure than it is battery tech. 120 volt is basically pointless, I have a wall charger at home but never use it. I can charge at work and there are enough free chargers around. I super charge once or twice a year on road trips and I'm always ready to grab a bite or stretch my legs anyway. Its also very fast to go like 20% to 90%, you find yourself rushing back.

#2392 12 days ago
Quoted from OnTheSnap:

As an owner of a Model 3 Performance and Model X P100D, seeing this stuff going on really depresses me

Rich's multi-part series of his car purchase is making tesla look REALLY bad. How do you have such poor communication? If I were him I'd make them pay me for wasting my time.

VW is showing off their MEB platform
https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-engineering-behind-vws-electric-car-pla-1829257860

#2393 12 days ago

The customer service problems reminds me a lot of what I experienced as an early adopter of Verizon Fios. Fortunately, over the last two years I have seen a huge improvement in Verizon's customer service but it took over 10 years.
Tesla should get better with that aspect once they get used to the increased volume of sales.

#2394 12 days ago
Quoted from OnTheSnap:

As an owner of a Model 3 Performance and Model X P100D, seeing this stuff going on really depresses me. While my service so far has been exceptional in the Bay area, this sort of stuff could truly ruin Tesla. Esp since they rely on no marketing, and mostly word of mouth and viral marketing.
So much amazing tech, forward thinking. And this is such a dumb ass problem. Sure you can hand waive it as growing pains. But model 3 puts them in the main stream. And now this is festering into a major block. I hope it's their highest priority in 2019. As people are burned, they don't give second chances.

And a Tesla's lovers objective opinion about the issue:

As a Tesla owner/lover, thanks for posting that. Refreshing to see someone admit it's not all sunshine and roses. I feel the same way about my Alfa Romeo. Love, love, love the car and performance. Hate, hate, hate the FCA dealer network and support.

#2395 12 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

How many years do you think Toyota has until they are not making decent profits? I don't see EVs taking the majority of the automobile (cars/trucks/SUVs combined) market for at least 15 years (likely many more years than that unless the battery technology significantly improves).

You do realize that’s exactly what supporters of Sears, Blockbuster and Kodak said, right?

By the time Toyota gets an EV off the line (maybe 2020 if you believe in fairies) Tesla will have at least a 9 year lead on them. Toyota is spending only 1 billion per year on EVs, half of which is on EV battery R&D. Tesla is already outspending them 3 to 1 on R&D alone. How are they going to catch up?

Honestly, how?

Quoted from DCFAN:

It needs to be comparable to current gas cars to to get the masses to buy in.

No it doesn’t, as demonstrated by the astonishing growth of Tesla and the buyer profile of the Model 3.

The only reason, and I mean the only reason that EV’s aren’t selling more is that supplies are constrained. Tesla literally can’t make them fast enough.

Quoted from DCFAN:

Most people cannot afford a car that is $30k or higher.

No, the average cost in 2018 of a new car in the USA was $35k:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-jump-2-percent-for-march-2018-on-suv-sales-strength-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300623110.html

Or do you mean that most people can’t afford a new car?

Quoted from DCFAN:

Solid state batteries will hopefully pan out.

I really hope they do too, but nobody has produced anything /even in the lab/ that could be used in an EV. The jump from lab prototype to consumer is generally 10 years.

#2396 12 days ago

You are correct sadly, but that's not to say there aren't a LOT of vehicles less than that. My wife's fully loaded CX-5 was $32k which I never thought I'd spend on a vehicle. I doubt my next vehicle will be $35k, it'll most likely be a $20k honda fit. But yes, $35k for a vehicle isn't outrageous these days, especially one that has little maintenance, low fuel cost (electricity is still cheaper), and very high resale value (because tesla batteries typically last 200k miles with above 80% capacity).

#2397 12 days ago
Quoted from Brijam:

You do realize that’s exactly what supporters of Sears, Blockbuster and Kodak said, right?
By the time Toyota gets an EV off the line (maybe 2020 if you believe in fairies) Tesla will have at least a 9 year lead on them. Toyota is spending only 1 billion per year on EVs, half of which is on EV battery R&D. Tesla is already outspending them 3 to 1 on R&D alone. How are they going to catch up?
Honestly, how?

No it doesn’t, as demonstrated by the astonishing growth of Tesla and the buyer profile of the Model 3.
The only reason, and I mean the only reason that EV’s aren’t selling more is that supplies are constrained. Tesla literally can’t make them fast enough.

No, the average cost in 2018 of a new car in the USA was $35k:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-jump-2-percent-for-march-2018-on-suv-sales-strength-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300623110.html
Or do you mean that most people can’t afford a new car?

I really hope they do too, but nobody has produced anything /even in the lab/ that could be used in an EV. The jump from lab prototype to consumer is generally 10 years.

I honestly don’t know anybody that goes out of their way to “support” auto makers or any other retail companies in general. People buy a product and that purchase is hopefully beneficial to the individual and company. Tesla owners just seem different in that regard which must mean they are very engaged with the product in a way that not many purchases of other products stimulate/inspire.

However, there will be more companies that are successful in making whatever is the mainstream technology car in the future. I don’t care if it is Tesla, Ford, or Toyota that is the best, but to be honest as an American I would prefer American companies dominate the electric industry. Unfortunately, since WW2 the Japanese tech companies have been the best at taking other’s ideas and refining them. I seriously doubt the Germans will be better at EVs than the Japanese. That is why companies like Sony/Matsushita/Panasonic/Toyota/Honda have been so successful. Refining things to work properly and reliably without over-engineering them is what engineering should strive to achieve. The German manufacturers have not been so good at that.

#2398 11 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

I honestly don’t know anybody that goes out of their way to “support” auto makers or any other retail companies in general.

Apple, Marvel, Wizards of the Coast, Nintendo, Disney, Ferrari, Porsche, Nike, Prada (and many other fashion brands) and LEGO have legions of people who promote and consume even more than Tesla. There are many more below the multi billion dollar mark. And re: Ferrari/Porsche I’m talking about the merch, although they have many who buy whatever car they sell.

Quoted from DCFAN:

since WW2 the Japanese tech companies have been the best at taking other’s ideas and refining them.

Better than China? Hasn’t Japan been in economic decline since the mid-90s? That doesn’t seem to support your ‘best’ thesis.

Quoted from DCFAN:

I seriously doubt the Germans will be better at EVs than the Japanese.

This remains to be seen. At the moment the Germans certainly are.

#2399 11 days ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

How many years do you think Toyota has until they are not making decent profits? I don't see EVs taking the majority of the automobile (cars/trucks/SUVs combined) market for at least 15 years (likely many more years than that unless the battery technology significantly improves).

Big auto is very competitive by how long it has been a mature industry with not many more corners that can be cut, and profit margins that are in the low single digit percentages on their automobiles. Additionally, they have giant factories with tons of employees, and so a small drop in sales could significantly materially hurt the auto industry. And this isn't some outlandish EV thing, this is the same thing that happened with a relatively small downturn in 2008ish that led to the collapse of the entire industry.

If EV sales take away market share from traditional auto makers by, say, 10% and they don't have products ready to go to compete, that is easily enough to send them into a bankruptcy tailspin. Right now, we're having the US auto industry shut down tons of their smaller sedans, which is what they were making the least money on. Could it be because the Model 3 soaked up a bunch of that demand and some people are willing to wait longer to replace a car so they can do it with an electric option (I know of multiple people that are doing this now)? Seems reasonable.

At the same time, bringing a new car to market is not as simple as Toyota just going, "Oh hey, an EV! Buy it!" To create a new vehicle platform costs billions of dollars, and legacy auto's offerings of cars that look and feel like their other offerings, just more expensive and electric aren't cutting it. When Tesla starts rolling out the $35,000 Model 3, comparing that car to a Bolt or Leaf is extremely difficult. The Leaf, and again I own one and love it, feels like a Nissan Versa that happens to be electric. It has performance to more or less match. Essentially, Nissan said hey, let's do the hybrid "green tax", sell these to all the tree huggers and call it a day.

And that makes sense for them. If the Leaf was an absolute killer product, Nissan could destroy *their own* business if it sells too strongly. They need the transition to be slow and orderly so they can survive it.

They have the problem though that Tesla came along and made a car that isn't just for tree huggers. It happens to be the top performing, safest, and most fun. If the Model 3 was in the Nissan showroom at $35,000, it would dominate their line up and there would be huge trouble with the other 10 or so model lines that create gas cars.

The lack of huge amounts of production means prices stay high on the components and the economy of scale is tougher for them to make. Tesla can afford to shave $2000 off all of their cars and still make more than enough money to weather the tax credit phase out.

Ultimately, if you believe that the world will eventually transition to electric cars, whether that is five years from now or 100 years from now, that transition with these hugely built up businesses whenever it happens will be really rough. If they had no new competitors that were unencumbered by their past, they would probably all survive and it would take 100 years. Instead, we have a very ambitious company leading in insurrection instead, forcing them to do things they don't feel ready for, but the understanding is there that without it, they won't survive. They're killing the credibility of these companies that are saying they simply can't produce (or afford to produce) EVs in a mass market way in the near term because they are already doing it, and the more that those companies don't get on board, the more dangerous it is.

Remember, Williams closed and sold their pinball division not because it was losing money, but because investors were having a hard time trying to figure out how to value the company when they had an old legacy business potentially weighing them down and holding them back. The same valuation issues are starting to be asked about legacy auto. It's why Tesla is generally in the third largest market cap position in the world. Investors are starting to believe that those legacy ICE lines are more of a drag than a benefit, and the more cars that Tesla sells, the tougher all of legacy's position gets.

Quoted from DCFAN:

Unfortunately, since WW2 the Japanese tech companies have been the best at taking other’s ideas and refining them. I seriously doubt the Germans will be better at EVs than the Japanese. That is why companies like Sony/Matsushita/Panasonic/Toyota/Honda have been so successful. Refining things to work properly and reliably without over-engineering them is what engineering should strive to achieve. The German manufacturers have not been so good at that.

The Japanese love of fuel cell technology shows that they can change. Fuel cells are absolutely stupid for a whole slew of reasons, but the most simple one being that you have to create the infrastructure from scratch (we all have electric plugs for cars, they work) and the cheapest fuel cell technology is still light years more expensive than the fastest chargers right now.

The more they invest in that, the more behind they get. Right now, Germany is far ahead of Japan, and German automakers have barely started to notice EVs.

Quoted from Darscot:

Yeah, I guess the debate is more about infrastructure than it is battery tech. 120 volt is basically pointless, I have a wall charger at home but never use it.

I beg to disagree. In three months and two weeks with my car, I have almost exclusively used the wall outlet for it. I have used super chargers three times, only once for a "needed" charge on a trip, and that was for only about 15 minutes. My odometer reads 5671 miles, which means in a day I have averaged about 55 ish miles.

While I charged it a few times on our faster charger right after getting it (mostly to try to coax it into updating the computer as the fast charger is closer to the WiFi signal), it's been happy getting the Wifi signal in the garage lately. I'm not doing any "tricks" to try to keep it on the 120v, but I have now gone since the start of December without plugging it in on the fast charger once. While it rarely gets up to all 267 miles that I have it cut off at overnight during the week (right now, it's charging but at 157 miles), on the weekends when it tends to be plugged in longer, I tend to get it all the way back.

I have been kind of entertaining getting the fast charger just to mount it in the garage and be able to keep the 120v charger with me, but at this time I see no point in spending the money.

#2400 10 days ago
Quoted from goatdan:

I beg to disagree. In three months and two weeks with my car, I have almost exclusively used the wall outlet for it. I have used super chargers three times, only once for a "needed" charge on a trip, and that was for only about 15 minutes. My odometer reads 5671 miles, which means in a day I have averaged about 55 ish miles.
While I charged it a few times on our faster charger right after getting it (mostly to try to coax it into updating the computer as the fast charger is closer to the WiFi signal), it's been happy getting the Wifi signal in the garage lately. I'm not doing any "tricks" to try to keep it on the 120v, but I have now gone since the start of December without plugging it in on the fast charger once. While it rarely gets up to all 267 miles that I have it cut off at overnight during the week (right now, it's charging but at 157 miles), on the weekends when it tends to be plugged in longer, I tend to get it all the way back.
I have been kind of entertaining getting the fast charger just to mount it in the garage and be able to keep the 120v charger with me, but at this time I see no point in spending the money.

How many miles per hour of charge do you get on 120 volt outlet. How many amps does it pull? I thought it was in the 2-4 range and that seems pointless to me. I guess if that is all you have than you have to make due.

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