Let me know when Tesla outsells Honda for a month. Just in the USA if you want. Since two Honda models are most traded for the Almighty Tesla line and Tesla has sold more than all BMW's (Whatever those to links are supposed to mean).
Or, let's look world-wide at sales of Tesla and BMW. Or Honda.
Let me know.

Mr. Bally,
Tesla is a small automotive company that is growing leaps and bounds. Those markets are coming next year.
Did you not hear that Tesla is building a plant in Shanghai? There not going to be producing cars forever out of Fremont.
If Tesla was not disrupting do you really think all the other auto manufacturers would be scrambling to get their cars out.
Come on get real man.

This is the real sleeper that can bring down the house.

I am being real. I know quite a bit aboot their global plans and footprint.You mentioned how they are outselling all of BMW's product line. then you mention how certain Hondas are being the most traded in vehicle for Tesla's. Maybe you can add a 4th dimension to this to further strengthen your case.

Was blown away by the Joe Rogan interview of Elon.. Elon believes there is a strong risk ai will destroy humanity, US Govt should study and enact ai regulation, ahead of a catastrophe. He accepts this will not happen, and has become a fatalist. What comes will come - don’t sweat it. But then he goes on pursuing inventions to better mankind. Couldn’t Elon spend some more time to get the legislators to reconsider? Seems that would be a lot easier path.

Illuminate me why he did a 2 hour interview with a YouTube comedian.

It seems pretty clear to me. Unlike most execs Elon sees long term. The stock is down. He knows it will go up. Good time to get out and promote, particularly on channels that people who are likely to actually drop $50k on a car are likely to hang out - a comedy channel catering to petrol heads.

No man, the share price is plummeting because Tesla and Musk are being targeted by short sellers, and the media that depends on money from car companies has zero incentive (and you could argue every reason NOT) to run articles featuring actual facts, like the fact they sold more passenger cars in the USA than many companies and appear to have turned the financial corner. You don't actually believe that pay articles aren't real, and that ad money isn't the primary driver of articles, do you?

And I'm sorry, but you're wrong about executive departures being a thing. I don't think you understand what it's like in Silicon Valley. I've been to Amsterdam maybe 20 times and it's a gorgeous city with lovely people. But people don't job hop like in the valley where the average job in that part of the world is 18 months. It's like no place else on earth.

Also, they have 10,000 employees. People are going to leave. That's ordinary. The guy they just promoted to president has been there for 8 years. As has their lead designer. Like Apple and Google, they hold talent much longer than average.

You keep bringing up that $1bn bond as if it's going to be a problem. They have billions in cash and as of July are bringing in an additional billiion+ in revenue that they haven't been. It's not a problem anymore.

Yeah man, move the goalposts. Now they have to outsell Honda for them to be successful? Give me a fucking break.

Here's some facts. Tesla, in the month of August sold more passenger vehicles than:
Audi – 20,907
Mercedes-Benz – 20,339
Acura – 15,072
Chrysler – 12,219
Infiniti – 10,796
Volvo – 8,970
Mitsubishi – 8,416
Porsche – 4,083
Jaguar – 2,469

https://insideevs.com/tesla-outsold-brands-us-august/

Still don't see Teslas on the road. What's up with that?

you live in a rural area then. I see them constantly.. Model 3's, Model X's and S's. In fact the Turo app lets you rent cars from people, and there's at least 4-5 of them to rent within 40 miles of my home.

Easy...he's an egomaniac. It's the same reason he tweets ridiculous statements, did the subarine stunt and continues an unsubstantiated vendetta against someone who called out his publicity stunt. Surely you're not that obtuse. You can't continue to ascribe every ridiculous thing he does to some genius plan that us mere mortals don't understand. Most times and idiot is just an idiot...not a genius savant.

Simple math for where you live.

The population of Eustis, Florida is 15,000. The average American owns a car for 6.5 years. EV adoption in the USA is about 2%. Purely on averages you'd expect to see less than 4 new EVs per month in your town if you're on the national average. So they'd be rare.

But, your town is probably less than 2%. Where I live it's much higher than 2%, probably closer to 4-5%.

Goes to show you that anecdotes aren't very useful for judging market penetration. I'm guessing Eustis didn't lead the USA on adopting iPhones, either.

It strains credibility for you to call this particular billionaire an idiot. He did found PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla. Each of those has utterly and completely transformed its industry and none were obvious or easy to do at the time. I think it's fair to say that his IQ is well north of the average.

You call going on Rogan egomaniacal? Name me a CEO or celebrity that doesn't do this kind of thing all the time.

Or you mean taking a /puff/ of 100% legal pot was idiotic? Sure, I've seen a lot of grouchy old men have 1950's style Reefer Madness freak outs. But it's 2018, man. Pot is completely mainstream for people under 40, particularly in the places that selling the most Model 3's. I've read a LOT of 20 and 30-somethings giving him mad props. Which person do you think he's trying to sell a Model 3 to?

And don't put words into my mouth. I'm not ascribing everything he does to "some genius plan." I've criticized him before in this very thread. In particular he should absolutely have someone review his tweets before they are published. But I just can't subscribe to the idea that he's somehow lost his mind or he has a low IQ. That's not rational.

You give me a Fucking break. I wasn't even talking to you. Nilroc said that Tesla outsold BMW and that two Honda models are most traded for Teslas. I am addressing that. Let's go with Audi then. Tesla sells more cars than Audi now according to you. If Audi's are most traded for Teslas, than Audi might be in trouble. Audi is just fine. The Germans are not stupid.

I haven't seen Hans Dieter Poetsch on a YouTube video taking a toke. Yet anyway.

No. You want a break, go to fucking McDonalds.

All evidence to the contrary. Tesla just OUTSOLD their ENTIRE LINE OF PASSENGER CARS man. Tesla is eating Audi's breakfast, lunch and dinner now.

Audi's challenger to the Model X, the e-Tron is late. For YEARS they promised it in 2018 (because, you know, EVs are easy right):
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-previews-2018-electric-car-with-e-tron-quattro-concept/

Guess what, it isn't available. I'm excited to see what they come up with as they begin taking pre-orders in nine days (according to their website). However, their website says: "Concept vehicle represented. Not available for sale. Specifications may change." So they don't even have specs for a car that's supposed to be released this year? When was the last time you saw Audi do that? That's right, never.

Their electric RS7 was supposed to be out in 2018 too. It's delayed too. Maybe it comes out in 2019, but the company has been silent.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/new-audi-rs7-coming-in-late-2018-e-tron-version-with-700-hp-to-follow-120664.html

Is there media coverage of these failures at Audi like there was for Tesla being late with their cars? No. Even with Audi's CEO, you know, being ARRESTED in June:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/06/18/investing/audi-ceo-arrested-volkswagen-rupert-stadler/index.html

Audi has no charging infrastructure. They're hoping the fast CCS network will be there, but it isn't there. The country is blanketed with 24kw "fast" chargers that are pathetically slow. And when it gets here, it's going to be way more expensive than Tesla's supercharger network, because the third parties Audi is depending on (praying for) will have to charge more money to make a profit.

Also Audi's dealers won't want to sell EVs. This has been covered in depth.

Audi has no the capacity to manufacture batteries at volume. I doubt they will be able to make more than 1-2 thousand per month, if that. This is not going to slow or stop Tesla's growth, nor will it cement Audi's future in the new EV age.

They as a company don't seem to want to sell EVs, because for such a massive, profitable and skilled company as Audi, you'd think if they wanted to make a Tesla killer, they could, right? I mean, EV's are EASY, right?

So no, Audi is not just fine.

On this we agree. I speak German and have lots of friends in that very excellent country. I have deep respect for their engineering prowess, their commitment to reduce pollution and adopt renewables.

But one doesn't have to be stupid to be crushed by disruption. I hear there were a lot of smart people at Kodak, Polaroid, Blackberry, Nokia, and Sears too.

mcd (resized).jpg

I'm not saying he is an idiot. I'm saying his actions are idiotic. The same actions you said were genius.

You really think the market for a 50k plus car is 20 year olds? Man your bias is really going full bore past your logic. You like to throw out links...here's one....average age of model 3 deposit holders is 43. Your demographic claim fail. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teslarati.com/survey-model-x-owners-income-double-model-s/amp/

And stop with the red herring that pot is legal. So is drinking but you don't do either on the job.

Hey Mr. Bally,
Research from your own hometown. Read it and weep. No full gasoline car I know gets 55mpg or in the case of Canada with pure Hydro Electric Power 169 mpg.
This is the reason the change is happening. We can't go on polluting the atmosphere with gas and especially Diesel cars and trucks running around.

https://news.umich.edu/emissions-worldwide-gas-vs-battery-electric-vehicles/

I have nothing to weep aboot. My company sells the same parts to BMW and Audi that they do to Tesla. Only Tesla pays more since their quantities are smaller. Plus, the Non-North America stuff is sold through our offices & plants overseas so I don't get credit for those sales. Any transfer from the Europe division or from a competitor that sells to Honda is a plus to me.

I didn't realize Canada was pure hydro power for electricity. I recall it being the majority though.

It’s not 100% but BC is 95% clean power. The 5% is just remote location all the little stuff that’s off the grid. The country is like 80% non emitting energy with plans and legislation in place for the grid to be 100% by 2030. We also export a great deal of clean electricity south of the border. The way things a going the US will probably slam a tariff on our electricity as our definition of clean does not include coal.

Curious - Tesla has built a huge nationwide charging network. Why doesn't another car company "rent" it's use? That's a huge expense and infrastructure investment. I can't believe that other car companies haven't thought about it. I wonder if Tesla would flat out refuse to enter into a contract with another car company to use them, or that other car companies just don't want to give Tesla a boost by using their network? Honestly I can't believe no other major car company has yet to make a deal with Tesla to use it.

Tesla still needs to build more superchargers with the model 3's coming on, before renting any to others. Saw 6 teslas at a supercharger location at same time for first time the other day. People waiting in line to get a spot will not be good.

Thought you could make a reservation for a specific time. Or is that for super stations only? Maybe you caught them at shift change.

I didn't say 20 years old. I said "20 and 30 somethings."

Your data says the average age is 43 - that means half of all reservation holders are ///younger/// than 43. Your data supports my case perfectly.

Where Tesla does Tesla sell the most cars? Silicon Valley. Average age of a programmer there? 28. With an income and a desire for a tech heavy car:
https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-age-programmer-2015-4

And that bullshit you're trying to pull by twisting my words is a logical fallacy called an Appeal to Extremes.
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/30/Appeal-to-Extremes

He took a puff of a legal intoxicant and said right then in the interview that he wasn't into pot. He wasn't ripping bong hits or dabbing, but the media coverage makes him out to be a pothead. That's not a red herring, that's directly to the point that he's under a coordinated character assassination campaign.

So the guy drinks whisky during a YouTube video with a comedian. I suppose you can call that being on the job. You expect the guy to be a teetotaler, I think it makes him more human. It certainly seems to have resonated with younger people.

They show no sign of slowing supercharger growth. And for Tesla this does fall into the "good problem to have" category.

I've personally seen quite a number start at 4 stalls and double or triple over time. Chehalis and many other I-5 superchargers I use have tripled, Seaside has doubled.

You can't make reservations, it's first come-first served. But the in-car navigation system shows usage of nearby superchargers in real time.

I think you need to revisit high school math and understand the difference between mean and median. A 43 year old average doesn't mean half are under 43. One 40 year old, one 44 year old and one 45 year old is guess what...an average of 43. But twice as many are older than 43 than under. But no matter it's far from your 20 somethings. And your example is silicon valley?? What a joke. Are you suggesting that the sole customer base is the over inflated salaries of silicon valley. And that's who Musk is pandering to? Then Tesla is in more trouble than I thought. You've gone full jump the shark with this line of debate. You're much better than that.

I'm absolutely certain that a lot of 50 and 60-somethings buy Model 3's. So it's rather disingenuous of you to suggest that if the average age is 43 that there aren't a /substantial/ number of 20 and 30 something reservation holders.

And of course you're right about the exact definition of mean, but that doesn't support your conclusion that there aren't substantial numbers of 20 to 30-somethings buying or looking to buy a Model 3.

No, curiously enough what I said is what I meant. I'll break it down since you seem to be having as much trouble with basic English as I am with high school math:

1) Plenty of 20 to 30-something people buy $43,000 cars (and many more of them will but $35,000 ones).

2) Where Tesla sells the most cars, in Silicon Valley California, the average age of a programmer there is 28.

3) A lot of younger car lovers watch Joe Rogan on YouTube, so appearing there and convincing Rogan to buy a P100D

I bought a performance Model 3. I'm 58 but I feel like 20 when I drive it!

This will be my last post in this line of debate as you've failed on so many levels at this point it's no longer productive.

The average 43 year old is certainly more demonstrative that your 20 somethings aren't the target audience.

The average price of a model 3 is above 50k....don't know where you are getting 43k. And the next round is the 78K performance model. So you can forget the unicorn 35k for now.

Most of those 28 year old silicon Valley programmers you're so enamored with don't even drive cars. Again not the target audience. They're using uber black or live close to work since there is no parking in Palo Alto.

https://www.quora.com/How-frequent-is-it-for-someone-young-in-the-Silicon-Valley-tech-world-to-drive-a-supercar

Kudo to you sir! We do whatever we can to stay young.

I accept your concession. You have failed to address any of the substantive points of my argument anyway.

The fact that 43 year olds buy Model 3s doesn't mean 20 and 30-somethings aren't also buying them. This is another logical fallacy, of which you have committed many.

Base Model 3 price is $49,000 my friend. Less a $7,500 federal tax credit that is $41,500. Perhaps you should brush up on the elementary school arithmetic as well as your logical fallacies.

This is wrong in so many ways I don't even know where to begin.

First, a $42,000 car is now a supercar? Riiiiiight.

And have you ever even BEEN to Palo Alto? Do you have any idea how expensive the real estate is there? Virtually everyone commutes because of that. And the place is jammed with expensive cars and young people driving them.

And you'll have to show some data for that ludicrous argument that young people are taking Uber black to work.

Anyway, linking to a random answer on quora.com doesn't really support your argument, particularly since the second highest upvoted comment says "But the cars that stand out are primarily not supercars. As Stan highlights, the biggest standout is the Tesla. It is the nice car I most see young people driving."

Elon Musk 2020

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/

?
You missed the point.

Just an FYI. Canada has the largest nuclear plant in the world.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Power

Bruce is 8 nuclear plants. Japan has a larger site, just not operating now.

That’s pretty stunning. Even you haters HAVE to take notice. $1B in sales on the model 3 in August. I just don’t know why you have to hate an American car company success story. It’s weird to me.

The thing is, the 1 billion in sales cost them 1.4 billion to generate the sales. That's the problem.

Jalopnik reviews the model 3
https://jalopnik.com/the-2018-tesla-model-3-long-range-is-the-perfect-mix-of-1828853186

That is such a disingenuous statement.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/10/technology/business/tesla-stock-bonds-elon-musk/index.html

heads up for previous owners, replace your keyfobs
https://www.wired.com/story/hackers-steal-tesla-model-s-seconds-key-fob

Okay, I'm 20 minutes into the Joe Rogan - Elon Musk interview and I won't be able to sleep tonight. I have a new respect for Elon; I have never heard him talk like this before, only doing Steve Jobs like reveals. This quote in Sarah Connor like tones is disturbing me:

"I tried to convince people to slow down, slow down A.I., to regulate A.I,” Musk said. “This was futile. I tried for years. Nobody listened.”

This is the first 20 minutes, what will the next 2 hrs bring me?

>>>>>>>

Just heard this one:

“If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will end. One of those two things will occur. Therefore, we are most likely in a simulation, because we exist.”

Ok, I'm game, how did you come up with that exact number? Unless you justify it, I'm calling bullshit.

If you really don't want to sleep tonight, just watch some boston dynamics videos and realize they have completely autonomous (without tethering) robotic dogs and humanoids.

Interesting thing about boston dynamics, 10 years ago they started with gas engines for the power, now they are completely silent electric motor driven.

Those things scare the shit out of me. Not for what they are today. For what they'll be in five years.

Assume whatever videos they are sharing with the public, the stuff they have in their labs is even more advanced.

Hard to say if they're more advanced in their lab or their videos are extremely well produced and we don't see, for example, that the running robot has a thirty second battery life, or the thousand times the door opening bots failed to open the door.

One thing is for sure, they are making scary progress.

But for me it's the battery life that is the real issue, that's why I say five years.

Oh, I've seen those. In the beginning of the Joe Rogan interview they talk about this company. I don't have the exact quote, but Joe said something like what if they can move so fast you can't see, and Elan says it is possible now. That lead to the don't kick a robot quote.