We have a winner! Fell to $296.22 today.

I saw my first one (Model 3) on Lindbergh in Frontenac two days ago. It looked really good. I was surprised how wide the rear hips were; it surprised my how much style it had considering needing to make a small car have room on the inside.

I tried to tell them 9 days ago at $350. Good time to dump. Writing was on the wall.

Tesla. It will be the biggest ponzi scheme to date. If and when the government pulls the subsidies from tesla, they will be done.

So you're shorting it, right?

I'd love to, but I am not qualified to have a margin acCOuNt with my firm.

If you're CONfident about Tesla, you can buy long-term puts without using margin.

I hope you were being ironic/sarcastic. Because if you were, it was funny. If not, you are seriously unlearned in both Tesla and Ponzi schemes.

If you want to see who has benefitted the most from US government intereference and bailouts, look no further than Detroit.

No thanks. Every time I played the Options game, I lost my ass.

Yeah, sure you did, buddy.

Please, please short them if you’re so confident. Put it all on margin, if you’re so confident the writing is on the wall. You can only win, right?

Tesla will weather this round of attack and hate articles just like they have every year they’ve been in business. And they’ll continue to double their revenue year after year.

Yawn.

He's not the only one.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-05/why-tesla-executives-are-fleeing

You’re posting more crap from that guy who got busted for insider trading and is now banned from the industry? Get real.

Lots of brand devotion here. I get it. I'm just saying there's signs of trouble. To dismiss all red flags, mock all naysayers and continue crying "All is well" might backfire on you. I recall similar behavior from the SkitB, DP and Heighway fanboys right up to the bitter end. I don't have a crystal ball, but at least I have the ability to view the situation objectively. If some of you lose you chub for a moment you might be able to do the same.

It’s clear you are acting like a troll in an enthusiast thread. Any company has a chance of failure. I don’t think anyone’s disputing that. It just gets old because those of us who have followed tesla for a while know the cycle has repeated itself many times. Tesla is the darling of the market. The media and know-it-all’s starts focusing on negatives and the naysayers come out in abundance citing traditional analytics that say tesla will be dead by Christmas. Tesla makes impossible promises and delivers them late. Stock goes up again. Been there done that.

Start a “Tesla will be dead by X” thread and take all the stock geniuses with you. I certainly concede they’re in a tough cash crunch. But there’s so many positives, it won’t die. Could change form. Who knows? Definitely not me or you.

I really don’t think you do get it.

I’d love to engage in some actual debate about Tesla using, you know, actual facts. I invite you bring something meaningful to the table and let’s debate it.

You should read over the thread though first, because we’ve already analyzed and debated many issues - Tesla’s cash position, for example.

In your last post you use subtle personal attacks. What that tells me is that you’ve got nothing to add right now.

In your last post you compare a publicly traded massively successful disrupting company that is a household name with billions in revenue in one of the largest industries with many competitors to cash-strapped privately held startups in a ultra niche market controlled by a single dominant player. That’s a ludicrous comparison and worthy of mockery.

Posting articles from a known trolling site authored by a guy banned from the financial industry... is mockworthy.

Bring financial or business analysis to the discussion if you don’t want to be mocked.

Tesla is rocking it!
check out the sale for June courtesy of HyperChange TV: 6062 units Model 3

You can't argue the facts!

Except that's not what's happening.

If someone posts links to deceptive articles, in this case written by someone who was banned from the financial industry, I am going to call it out every single time. That kind of bullshit shouldn't be tolerated anywhere. It is toxic.

If I see something that seems to be based on assumptions that are untrue, I'm also going to point out why.

Yeah, Tesla's June sales are impressive. In June 2018 Tesla sold more than a thousand more of their Model S than they did in June of 2017. They sold more two and a half times more cars than the Bolt of the Model S alone. Growth and numbers are similar for the Model X. And the Model 3 outsold the Bolt 6 to 1 despite being much more expensive at present.

The Bolt's US sales continue to decline month by month, and are down more than 30% from June of 2017 to a little over 1,000 cars. GM says they're selling Bolts as fast as they can make them (which I think is ~1,600 a month), but increasingly to the overseas market. GM says they are increasing production by 20% in Q4 of 2018. I believe it.
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/07/05/gm-boost-chevy-bolt-production/

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Many people think Tesla held back their US deliveries for June to extend the tax credit. With that plus their greater production capacity I expect even higher Model 3 sales in July as a result - I think at least 8,000 Model 3's will be sold in the US in July.

I'll be very interested to see Jaguar's sales for their I-Pace EV. It's supposed to go on sale in Europe this month and be available in the US later this year. I just read that Jag is spending more than they've ever spent educating their dealers, and they are spending a ton on advertising it as well. Is there only a market for 2,500 EV SUV's a month? Or will the I-Pace sell as much as the Model X without taking market share away from Tesla? Or will the I-Pace fail to sell because of their lack of a charging network?

The I-Pace is one of the first pure EVs from a manufacturer other than Tesla that looks interesting to me, with one notable exception: they hamstrung it with a 7kW on-board charger. A car with a 90kWh pack really should have a 15+ kW charger, at least available as an option.

Remember that very negative tear down on what a pile of crap the Model 3 was. Big surprise now the guy has completely reversed his opinion and its the greatest thing since sliced bread and the most profitable EV on the market. Interesting how things change when your trying to sell all the other car manufacturers your report for 90K. Now it's the greatest and if you don't buy the secrets from me you will never compete with the Model 3.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teardown-profitability/

I just laugh at all the naysayers. Most have never probably driven a Tesla. Once you have driven one you soon find out how great a vehicle they are.
Just look at all the reviews from owners. They love the car! Model 3 is going to be a real game changer for Tesla.

Here’s a video that popped into my YouTube feed today. It’s a model 3 on the track. They put on new tires, breaks and suspension.

1 in 4 Tesla Model 3 orders has been canceled, analyst says

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/19/technology/business/tesla-downgrade/index.html

not surprising with the $7500 tax incentive expiring and the cheap one put at back of line.

unrelated : porsche opened their interest books yesterday for their EV

I myself am shocked, now that no reservation is required people not ready to order have decided to get the completely useless $1000 reservation back. Everyone I know waiting on the 35K decided to refund the reservation. Every single one of them is also still completely stoked to get the car and will be button mashing the buy button the moment the configuration is opened.

Tesla probably should have just refunded everyone.

Seems these analysts have the same intelligence as the people still trying to scalp reservation spots for profit. LOL

Tesla is back to saying that delivery is based on reservation date, order date, location, and configuration. If two people order at the same time, one with a 2016 reservation and another with a 2018 reservation, it’s unclear as to what happens. As of a few weeks ago it seemed as if only order date mattered. Perhaps the backlash was sufficient to force Tesla to rethink it - or at least say something else. It’s not the most transparent process.

Yeah that is one area I think Tesla screwed up. The reservation date was really just very vague ball park. I think the vast majority of people realise the invite is pointless at this stage. Why anyone would not refund the $1000 is beyond me. The analysts should have said 75% of people still holding useless reservation. I guess that wouldn't have affected the stock though.

Not Tesla 3 related but my dad just ordered a P100D with ludicrous speed. I can’t wait to drive this thing! I can’t even imagine how fast it must be.

Now I have to find a way to make a deal with him for his old P85!

The reservation process was the same for Model S. I got my P85 months earlier than I was expecting because at the time it was configured with every single option you could buy. Lots of people who put deposits down for the smaller battery pack much earlier than I did had to wait over a year longer.

At the time, people thought it meant they had no demand. That's been proven incredibly 100% wrong.

They're doing the same thing with the Model 3. Of course they're going to sell the more expensive versions first. They would be insane not to.

Tesla also officially reported a NET gain of 7,000 reservations last month, because they're sick of the media lying about there not being any interest in the Model 3.

Awesome review of the Model 3, shockingly by the Wall Street Journal. I didn't see that one coming, no sarcasm.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-ever-review-of-the-tesla-model-3-performance-a-thrilling-modern-marvel-1532022533

Also I was driving up from Los Angeles yesterday and there was a steady steam of brand new Model 3's headed for L.A. on trucks. I saw at least a dozen Model 3's driving on the I5 southbound as well.

If you've driven in LA you know Teslas are everywhere. But I was surprised to see so many Model 3's on the road already.

Me and my co worker play a game during the day while driving the city for work. We message each other when we see our 1st daily Tesla. I work in 5 different cities and without fail everyday I see at least one driving around. Mostly model S, some x’s, but recently I’ve noticed model 3 appearing. I saw my first one owner a month ago. Not to bad for a company that doesn’t advertise and their closest store is like an hour away.

I have a reservation that I'm holding on to until next year when Tesla will introduce the Smart Air Suspension for the Model 3 Performance Model. I'm sure there are others also waiting for SAS.

Drove P100D w Ludicrous, Model S, super quick, it will put a smile on your face!

Interesting video. Looks like the 3 doesn't suffer (at least as much) with heat issues that lead to power loss on the track. The S can't make a hot lap of a major race track without heat related major performance downgrades but the 3 can. They mention in the video that the 3s motor and rectifiers are more efficient so they create less heat. Also they were able to mostly defeat the boat anchor stability control system while leaving the the ABS intact. On the minus side, it seems the 3s stock brakes can't make a lap of the track without melting the brake pads. In summary, they took a stock 3 and replaced the tires, brakes, springs and shocks, turned off stability control and gained 8 full seconds a lap at Toronto Motorsports Park.

It is very encouraging for Tesla's future that the mods are starting. When people start modding and customizing it usually means things are about to take off - at least that is what seemed to happen in pinball!

Big news today. It's good when a company asks its' suppliers for money back on purchase orders sent and previously accepted, correct?

It's a weird negotiation but as always we only get a snippet of information. Walmart and Amazon are both notorious for demanding and forcing price reduction from suppliers. Last time I checked they do ok. I dunno why they would ask for a reduction on a previous purchase but my guess is they are asking for it because they have an alternate source. Saying give us a reduction or we won't use you in future.

How about this story, a pulitzer prize winning journalist attacked on social media by the Tesla shorts.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-performance-review-wsj-dan-neil-twitter/

Another day, another bullshit attack article against Tesla. Tesla bears misrepresented a renegotiation as some kind of retroactive demand for refunds.

It’s not at all unusual to renegotiate a multi-year contract in progress.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks/tesla-says-supplier-discount-request-was-for-ongoing-projects-idUSKBN1KD1CE

Long-term supply agreements are your honor in the Automotive component industry. Both ways. Surcharges for certain raw materials (Steel, copper, reins etc) adjustments can be worded into supply agreements before both parties sign.

If a buyer can buy a like component for less before the agreement runs out, They usually contact the supplier and give them an agreed to in advance time to respond. Usually 60-90 days. Most safety-related components need 1-2 years to be qualified.

If what the WSJ article states is true, this sounds more like a money grab attempt.

They’re demonized for losing money and now they’re flamed for trying to save money. SMH

There's absolutely no way they survive another 9 months without either taking on a LOT more debt, or selling more shares.

Latest news reeks of insolvency. Musk's increasingly desperate and irrational behaviour tends to suggest that he's now very much cognisant of this too.

Maybe the automotive component industry needs some new rules...

Maybe they don't.

Cash flow positive this quarter. Watch for it haters. They’re selling the crap out of high end model 3s. Lots of profit margin on these.

I drove my BIL's 75d this weekend for the first time. While it certainly isn't the quickest Model S, all I have to say is Woooooow! The 30-50 is unbelievable. I had to keep asking by 6yr old riding back if he was okay because the acceleration pushes you back that much. Autopilot was a bit unnerving for the first time and was almost more work, but I'm sure once you start to trust it, it makes commutes better.

Just wait for July's sales numbers! Bye Bye Bears!

The Ford Tesla co-operative.....

TFC72518 (resized).PNG

You seem knowledgeable of Tesla's inner workings and sales plan. Can you explain why wait times for Model 3s have dropped from 1.5 years just a few months ago to 1 month now? Either Tesla is making a hell of a lot of 3s or a hell of a lot of people have dropped out. I admit I don't know anything about the reserve deposit model so is this new shortened delivery a product of that?

The thing about the reserve system is really confusing to a lot of people. Initially you had to put down $1000 to reserve your spot. Then when your number came up you ordered your car. When you ordered you had to pay a couple thousand more and that was non refundable. Now they have canceled the entire reserve process. There is no longer a $1000 reserve, you just place your order and pay the non refundable few thousand. The cars are basically going out by order date. Lots of people are still sitting on the initial $1000 reserve and have not ordered. That reserve is almost useless, one day the short range will just appear on the website and anyone will be able to order it by putting down a deposit. People are hopefull that the reserve holders will get priority and get to put their order in first. They probably will get a little priority but it's not going to mean much. The process thus far has shown that your reserve and order date is pretty lose as to when your car is actually delivered. Its all about the logistics, of what's coming off the line and where you live. There very little reason to sit on a reservation, what good is a reserve spot in line when anyone can go online and place an order today. The number of reserves is pointless all that matters now is the number of people that have ordered a car and paid the deposit. So long as orders out pace production they are golden. As they still have not even bothered to advertise clearly they can't keep up.