(Topic ID: 184461)

Who is in on Tesla model 3 ?

By pinballrockstar

7 years ago


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  • Latest reply 71 days ago by Fytr
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Topic poll

“Are you in on the model 3?”

  • Hell yes! 57 votes
    15%
  • I am considering! 80 votes
    21%
  • Hard to part with fossil fuel 15 votes
    4%
  • I don't care about my carbon footprint 88 votes
    23%
  • No 148 votes
    38%

(388 votes)

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#1151 6 years ago

Here are some pictures from the launch. These were taken by a friend who was standing right next to me. Definitely loud from this close!

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#1152 6 years ago

long video review of the Model 3

A lot of reviews dislike the center screen without venter gauges and ancillary adjustment controls.

#1153 6 years ago

As of now, the steering wheel controls do very little. Once the software is built out and those steering wheel controls contextually adjust to what's being performed, it will fix at least 90% of the gripes I've heard about this.

Quoted from rai:

A lot of reviews dislike the center screen without venter gauges and ancillary adjustment controls.

#1154 6 years ago

There must be hundreds of video reviews of the Model 3 now, all of them glowing that I've seen. Dude posts the clickbaityest "things I hate" video.

So predictable.

Of course it takes getting used to something different. Some people hated computer mouses and graphical user interfaces, touch screens, smartphones, digital cameras, telephones, the telegraph, yeah pretty much anything that was different.

#1156 6 years ago
Quoted from Brijam:

Of course it takes getting used to something different. Some people hated computer mouses and graphical user interfaces, touch screens, smartphones, digital cameras, telephones, the telegraph, yeah pretty much anything that was different.

To be honest, this is a bit different than those as the complaint is that to adjust things you have to take your eyes off the road to adjust things, whereas dials and whatnot become muscle memory.

There is some important functionality to this - for instance, if you're renting out your car and want to lock things in the frunk or glove box, you don't want a button that opens them for whomever is there - but that's not part of it currently and may not be for a while.

I think if / when they make everything voice controlled, people won't care, but releasing the car before voice command was available was an interesting choice. It opens the car up for legit complaints that will be addressed I figure within the next few months.

The center console is far less of a big deal than people say that it is, but is currently a bigger issue than it will be.

#1157 6 years ago
Quoted from goatdan:

To be honest, this is a bit different than those as the complaint is that to adjust things you have to take your eyes off the road to adjust things, whereas dials and whatnot become muscle memory.
There is some important functionality to this - for instance, if you're renting out your car and want to lock things in the frunk or glove box, you don't want a button that opens them for whomever is there - but that's not part of it currently and may not be for a while.
I think if / when they make everything voice controlled, people won't care, but releasing the car before voice command was available was an interesting choice. It opens the car up for legit complaints that will be addressed I figure within the next few months.
The center console is far less of a big deal than people say that it is, but is currently a bigger issue than it will be.

This reminds me a bit of the brouhaha when Apple shipped a one button mouse, or removed buttons from the iPhone, or PC makers stopped shipping PCs with floppy drives. Tempest in a teapot stuff. Clickbait.

Besides, there's a pretty good argument to be made that one shouldn't be adjusting things in their car while driving, even if using muscle memory. The number of people driving while texting or goofing off with their phones has just skyrocketed. I routinely see people with their heads down absorbed in their phone while driving in all manner of conditions. I'm all for removing ways for people to be distracted while driving.

As for missing features, Tesla is usually great about fixing things in software. My car didn't ship with quite a number of features including voice control, and they keep adding goodies. The media player has always been too basic for my taste. I understand why they don't want to open up app development to the entire world, but they really should polish that media player up.

#1158 6 years ago

Not adjusting things in the car while your driving like the cruise control? I’d ask how could you ever use cruise control without doing so while driving.

Also things like climate control or radio have been in cars for years. Those guys were saying if you watched the video that it’s done a lot better in the S or X where you can change the radio with one click instead of several clicks now with the 3.

Not sure if you all watched the video but they love the car but most every car will have somethings you don’t like as much or hate.

-1
#1159 6 years ago

Don't see how it can be a bad sample when there are cryingly obvious design issues, besides poor assembly.

IMO if their seeming inability to ramp production in any meaningful way doesn't kill them in the next 18 months to 2 years, lawsuits almost certainly will. Can't believe this thing is even road legal ... and maybe it won't be in the EU.

Their market capitalisation is at least 10x what it should be. Even then, that's quite generous.

#1160 6 years ago
Quoted from goatdan:

I think if / when they make everything voice controlled, people won't care

4 years ago I'd say you're crazy "Tesla, change the temperature to 68 degrees"... Changing speed to.. 68mph".

However if Amazon can make a $30 device that can hear me across the room clearly with commands, I could totally see Tesla making most functions of a car voice controlled. Adjusting the steering wheel and seat are more fine detailed adjustments, but most people don't adjust those things WHILE they're driving now.

#1161 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

Don't see how it can be a bad sample when there are cryingly obvious design issues, besides poor assembly.
IMO if their seeming inability to ramp production in any meaningful way doesn't kill them in the next 18 months to 2 years, lawsuits almost certainly will. Can't believe this thing is even road legal ... and maybe it won't be in the EU.
Their market capitalisation is at least 10x what it should be. Even then, that's quite generous.

Total nonsense. Look at literally any of the other reviews out there. It’s a phenomenal car by almost all accounts. This was just a dumb hit job for clicks. Why would you put stock in this review but none of the others?

#1162 6 years ago
Quoted from pezpunk:

Total nonsense. Look at literally any of the other reviews out there. It’s a phenomenal car by almost all accounts. This was just a dumb hit job for clicks. Why would you put stock in this review but none of the others?

Because I'm not a raving fanboy and it has serious safety issues. It looks to me as if engineers have been totally sidelined by clueless 'tech evangelists', and in their rush to get anything to market as they blow through money, they failed to heed warnings about the potential ramifications.

Most of the gushing eulogies being written or filmed are completely lacking any critical review and are totally subjective. Almost none of them even touch on major design problems. They're just scrambling for views.

You don't address any of the points made.

As to the appalling tolerances and build quality ... if lemons that bad are going out when production is so low, imagine what QC is going to be like if they manage to build 100* that number (supposedly what they hope to do in 2ish years).

Their prior products have been less than perfect, but that their 4th product is so regressive and flawed in so many potentially fatal ways should set alarm bells ringing.

#1163 6 years ago

Things like not having a seat lowering adjustable on a $50k car is just stupid.

I have a 12 year old Subaru that was $18k new and just rented a Corolla both have seat lowering feature. Not electric just a little pump handle that car manufacturers have been doing forever.

I’m tall and typically will lower my seat as low as possible. I don’t want to say that a deal breaker but little details matter especially if you are not a tree hugger and just want a car don’t care if it electrons or hydro chemicals, spending $50k should give you a basic level of features.

#1164 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

their 4th product is so regressive and flawed in so many potentially fatal ways should set alarm bells ringing.

Their 4th product is fantastic by almost all accounts. Why are you clinging to the one bad review as if it’s the only valid one?

#1165 6 years ago

LOL. I think the guy who's life was most likely saved because he was in a model 3 will disagree with you.

It's amazing he survived without any serious injuries.

https://www.engadget.com/2018/02/16/tesla-model-3-crash-center-display/

Quoted from rubberducks:

Because I'm not a raving fanboy and it has serious safety issues.

#1166 6 years ago

LoL most likely saved his life, everyone says that when they survive a crash, but you have no way of knowing if it was better than being in an Accord or BMW 3 series. I’ve seen same thing said about Subaru or Saturn cars that the driver credits that specific car with saving their life when they have no evidence at all.

I mean has this been proven that it was a fatal crash in another car or just balderdash?

#1167 6 years ago

I preordered a Smart when they were first launched and it was exactly the same. It really funny to see the exact same propaganda. Any new vehicle that makes even the smallest ripple in the industry get attacked with the same nonsense. They don't even mix up the play book. Tesla is just on a much larger scale so there are just way more people doing the launch of a new car for the first time. It's basically, attack safety, mix it up with quality, fit and finish issues, rinse and repeat. Oh and of course sprinkle in convenience issues. I got my Smart really early and they had an issue with the cables on the heater controls. The first batch was not lubricated properly so they seized up and were hard to adjust. So many reviews just when on and on about the heater controls, it's like deja vu.

-2
#1168 6 years ago

I'll take the reasoned verdict of a senior engineer with decades of experience, whose job it now is to evaluate the ergonomics, safety, performance and quality of non-affiliated automotive products, over vapid bloggers, any day.

You clearly haven't even watched the video, or if you have, are choosing to completely ignore the content. Several issues were raised *specifically* about its safety in crash situations ... not only for those inside (more than likely trapped due to design) but for emergency workers trying to free or treat them.

#1170 6 years ago

Like I said I saw the exact same stuff about the Smart when it launched. They don't even mix it up. They went on and on about how dangerous it was in a crash and how the support pillars were an issue. All the problems safety workers were going to have to get you out of it. One of my favorites was when the first one totaled was donated to local fire department so they could practice cutting into it. Then the pictures of the car all chopped into pieces were all over the internet with stories about how the car broke apart on impact.

#1171 6 years ago

Not sure why you are nitpicking part of my statement, I was responding to someone who said the car has "serious safety issues." If you take a look at the picture of the car, and then read the account of the person who was involved, the car can't be nearly as bad as the person who I was responding to was implying.

Okay, so fine, the car didn't save his life, so now that your happy, no, the car doesn't have any serious safety issues either. (and not because of this article by itself).

Quoted from rai:

LoL most likely saved his life, everyone says that when they survive a crash, but you have no way of knowing if it was better than being in an Accord or BMW 3 series. I’ve seen same thing said about Subaru or Saturn cars that the driver credits that specific car with saving their life when they have no evidence at all.

I mean has this been proven that it was a fatal crash in another car or just balderdash?

#1172 6 years ago

I’d agree with you in that the car doesn’t look to have any safety issues. I was just pointing out that a lot of cars have many safety features such as airbags, crumple zones, collapsible steering wheels, engines designed to slide down not in (in the event of a crash).

I’d say there’s not enough data to say if Tesla 3 is one of the safest cars ever or just very good.

I’m not saying it’s unsafe at all, just saying that that article is a being touted as showing how safe the 3 is. From me reading that article it didn’t say much about the crash except the paramedic saying the car saved their life, that’s kind of the point of the whole safety features on all cars and crash tests.

You can google search this is probably 6 out of a million such posts:
http://www.driveaccord.net/forums/15-7th-generation/250889-she-saved-my-life-today.html

https://www.subaru.com/why-subaru/articles/saved-my-life-twice.html

http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1089570

http://www.8thcivic.com/forums/garage/231423-honda-saved-my-life-photos-inside.html

https://www.svtperformance.com/forums/threads/kia-motors-saved-my-life-and-my-girlfriends-life.811143/

https://www.northamericanmotoring.com/forums/r50-r53-hatch-talk-2002-2006/271841-my-mini-saved-my-life.html

I’m saying one antidotal story does not prove anything, there’s a thing called scientific method, you’d need to have same crash in a different car and see the is the results are any different, that’s the scientific method, you just don’t take the word of a paramedic and say this car or that car is the safest car ever and you’d be dead dead dead in another car.

It’s tired if you can call propaganda from one article but you can’t see reverse propaganda?

Xyz car saved my life, google it, you’ll see every car saves someone’s life.

#1173 6 years ago
Quoted from toyotaboy:

4 years ago I'd say you're crazy "Tesla, change the temperature to 68 degrees"... Changing speed to.. 68mph".
However if Amazon can make a $30 device that can hear me across the room clearly with commands, I could totally see Tesla making most functions of a car voice controlled. Adjusting the steering wheel and seat are more fine detailed adjustments, but most people don't adjust those things WHILE they're driving now.

A interesting time for sure. I think we’re going to start seeing more of this quite soon. I read BMW is integrating Alexa into their cars as soon as 2018 I think. “Alexa, move my seat back 1 quarter of an inch please.” Love it!

#1174 6 years ago
Quoted from Goonie:

A interesting time for sure. I think we’re going to start seeing more of this quite soon. I read BMW is integrating Alexa into their cars as soon as 2018 I think. “Alexa, move my seat back 1 quarter of an inch please.” Love it!

Alexa, "I need a hummer please." Love it!

QSS

#1175 6 years ago

Tesla claimed they were going to be building 2500 Model 3's per week by Q3, 2017. Their best month was January, 2018. They built 1800 of them. They are hurting their vendors big-time.

#1176 6 years ago
Quoted from MrBally:

Tesla claimed they were going to be building 2500 Model 3's per week by Q3, 2017. Their best month was January, 2018. They built 1800 of them. They are hurting their vendors big-time.

Where did you get that figure? I thought they don't release their monthly sales until the end of the quarter.

#1177 6 years ago
Quoted from Brijam:

Where did you get that figure? I thought they don't release their monthly sales until the end of the quarter.

PM Sent

#1178 6 years ago
Quoted from rai:

I’m saying one antidotal story does not prove anything, there’s a thing called scientific method, you’d need to have same crash in a different car and see the is the results are any different, that’s the scientific method, you just don’t take the word of a paramedic and say this car or that car is the safest car ever and you’d be dead dead dead in another car.
It’s tired if you can call propaganda from one article but you can’t see reverse propaganda?
Xyz car saved my life, google it, you’ll see every car saves someone’s life.

LOL I think you mean "anecdotal"

This is a false equivalence you're trying to pull here. Put another way, it's bullshit.

Safety features build on each other. The more you have, the safer the car is. A car that can withstand a heavy side impact is not as safe as a car capable of actually taking an action, like braking or steering to save your life, because the latter car is already at least as able to withstand the same kind of impact.

The NTSA, using the scientific method, will agree with me that a car with collision avoidance is safer than a car without. This is what the OP was saying.

But no, you had to go and claim that the fundamental truth, that a car with collision avoidance is safer, WASN'T true because some uninformed person said something. That's bullshit. Stop it.

#1179 6 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Not adjusting things in the car while your driving like the cruise control? I’d ask how could you ever use cruise control without doing so while driving.

The Model 3 has a control stalk like every other car to control cruise control/autopilot. You control the volume of the radio from a button right on the steering wheel.

Seems like you haven't even looked at the car very closely, or you are deliberately trying to paint it in a bad light.

I was talking about fiddling with things that require attention and distract you from driving, not fundamental driving features. Just. Like. I. Wrote.

Quoted from rai:

Also things like climate control or radio have been in cars for years. Those guys were saying if you watched the video that it’s done a lot better in the S or X where you can change the radio with one click instead of several clicks now with the 3.
Not sure if you all watched the video but they love the car but most every car will have somethings you don’t like as much or hate.

There are a lot of things one can do that one shouldn't be doing while driving. As in, anything that isn't driving. There shouldn't be any reason to mess with climate control while driving. You set a temperature when you start driving and you're done. It's not a janky analog dial like in your Subaru, man. You set it to like 72 degrees and it stays at 72.

And as I said in a post I made a couple back, their media player functionality isn't very good. I believe they'll make it better. People still make the fundamental mistake with this car that it's 'done.' It's not done. They are going to keep improving the software just like they have in their other cars, same way Apple has done with iOS.

#1180 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

Their market capitalisation is at least 10x what it should be. Even then, that's quite generous.

...that’s what they said about Amazon 15 years ago before they ate the world. Disrupting startups cannot be valued on fundamentals alone. Of course there is a high degree of risk, but also an incredible potential upside opportunity, even beyond cars.

-1
#1181 6 years ago
Quoted from Fytr:

...that’s what they said about Amazon 15 years ago before they ate the world. Disrupting startups cannot be valued on fundamentals alone. Of course there is a high degree of risk, but also an incredible potential upside opportunity, even beyond cars.

But there are other incumbents in this industry who are far bigger, produce far less flawed products, have much better infrastructure, can scale far harder, and have way better engineers.

Amazon were already the elephant in the room 20 years ago, let alone 15.

No-one else is blowing through money as quickly as Tesla, granted, but they have very little to show for it so far.

They still haven't exceeded their annualised (to the month of) production numbers that they set 18 months ago. That despite constant talk of ramping production, cash burn accelerating, and a new 'high volume' product launch.

#1182 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

But there are other incumbents in this industry who are far bigger, produce far less flawed products, have much better infrastructure, can scale far harder, and have way better engineers.
Amazon were already the elephant in the room 20 years ago, let alone 15.
No-one else is blowing through money as quickly as Tesla, granted, but they have very little to show for it so far.
They still haven't exceeded their annualised (to the month of) production numbers that they set 18 months ago. That despite constant talk of ramping production, cash burn accelerating, and a new 'high volume' product launch.

Amazon was most certainly NOT the elephant in the room in 1998. In 1998 people were making the exact same arguments as you're making today about Tesla. That. Is. The. Point.

We've covered this in depth previously, but you're making the "incumbents shall overcome" argument which as we know didn't work for, let's see, every other incumbent ever. See Kodak, Sears, and Blockbuster but there are many others. It would be unusual to see the incumbents survive through this. It's possible, but unlikely.

It's laughable that you say Tesla has little to show for it's massive investments. Investments are not 'blowing through money' - doing coke and throwing parties is blowing through money. Tesla now has the largest factory in the world (and is building others), an unparalleled charging network, owns most aspects of the production of their cars, and has gone through several orders of magnitude in car production since they began just five short years ago. They have a waiting list for selling product that is in the billions of dollars. And they don't advertise!

I utterly fail to see how an aging infrastructure in building ICE vehicles with a massive reliance on third party vendors can compete with Tesla now. Many of their core competencies are not required: transmissions, engines, exhaust systems. Their dealer networks, once thought a huge asset, are now extraordinarily dangerous because dealers will not sell EVs since their revenue depends on repairs and EVs require vastly less maintenance and repairs.

The reality is that Tesla continues to produce incredible cars. Demand for them is so high they cannot produce them fast enough. People are threatening and in some cases cancelling their pre-orders why? Because the car sucks? No, the car is awesome. It's because they can't get one. This is what we call a good problem to have. And a solvable problem.

On the other hand, the finest challenger that the incumbents have been able to muster in FIVE YEARS is the Bolt. It's not a bad car, but it simply does not compare to the Model 3. Sales of the Bolt reflect that - in January they were less than half of the Model 3. If the Bolt were a true Model 3 challenger, they would be selling tens of thousands of them a month, since as you claim, the incumbents can outproduce Tesla and there is clearly a market demand for hundreds of thousands if not millions of $35k EVs. The reality is that there isn't enough demand for the Bolt compared to the Model 3 and there never will be. People would rather wait.

Nobody cares today that Tesla was also massively late on the Roadster and Model S and Model X because they are all incredible vehicles. You're late to the party, rubberducks so to catch you up, Elon's management style is to ask for the impossible and settle for the wildly improbable. It continues to work.

#1183 6 years ago

They were the dominant e-tailer, and growing faster and wider than anyone else. If you failed to see it, more the fool you.

Tesla continue to be an absolute joke. It categorically isn't working.

I find it curious that you mention Bolt sales figures as some kind of victory for Tesla. 23,000 Bolts were sold last year. Far more than the mean monthly production of Model 3s so far x12. That's just one of the competing cars, from one competitor. It's also not sold at a massive loss.

They've now had stagnant production figures for 6 (6!!!) consecutive quarters. Wake up.

fffff (resized).PNGfffff (resized).PNG

#1184 6 years ago

I may bail on the 3. Not saying that it's a bad car, but I think that I want a better car. I've been thinking of the Tesla S which I know several people own the S.

Here is a fun video (Chris Harris) he is on of the better presenters (IMO).

Still on the fence to me if I'd get an S or keep my old Legacy (for daily) and get a true sports car.

https://www.topgear.com/videos/chris-harris-drives/chris-harris-drives-tesla-model-s-p100d

#1185 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

They were the dominant e-tailer, and growing faster and wider than anyone else. If you failed to see it, more the fool you.

No, actually they weren't. Facts: in 1998 Amazon's gross revenues were $610 million. Ebay's gross revenues were $502 million for the last two quarters of 1998 alone.

I was very much active in ecommerce and the Internet, as a user of the Internet since the 80s, professionally and as an investor starting in 1994 and it was by no means common knowledge that Amazon would even be around in two years, let alone 20 and be in the position they were in now. As I said.

It's exceptionally unwise to assume things about people. I did quite well in the 90's being aware of the massive change that disruption had on established players. I saw and said and profited the same with many disruptions as they happened -- IBM and the PC, Apple and the iPod and iPhone, digital cameras, Sony's PlayStation, and Tesla to name a few.

Ignore disruption at your own peril.

Amazon was unfettered by the brick and mortar incumbents. The incumbents, like today's automakers, saw Amazon coming. People told them to make massive investments in the Internet. And they failed to do so, and in so doing, they failed. By 1998 Amazon was big and sure they were on the radar of the big brick and mortars, but the incumbents thought Amazon merely had a toehold and they could jump in any time they wanted. The time that the incumbents should have begun their massive investments was no later than 1996. It's the same now with automakers.

A flameout for a massive corporation takes years if not decades, so it's not surprising that many people can't see it. But the story has already been written. It's now just waiting to play out.

Could incumbent automakers survive this disruption and still stay on top? Sure. They'd have to turn their backs on their dealers and sell direct, though. I don't see that happening.

Quoted from rubberducks:

I find it curious that you mention Bolt sales figures as some kind of victory for Tesla. 23,000 Bolts were sold last year. Far more than the mean monthly production of Model 3s so far x12. That's just one of the competing cars, from one competitor. It's also not sold at a massive loss.

Since you're curious, I'll try to walk you through it.

Since the Bolt has been for sale for so long one would expect, if it were a successful car, that it would meet the expectations of the carmaker. It hasn't. Sales have been dreadful according to Chevy. Chevy said they could easily sell 50,000. They sold less than half of that.
https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-sales-prediction/

As I said, the Bolt isn't a bad car. It just doesn't compare to the Tesla Model 3 for a number of significant reasons. On top of that, the GM dealer network doesn't want to sell EVs. That's the real problem for GM, and all incumbent automakers.

It's not so much a victory for Tesla as it is the nature of the game now. Tesla is poised to profit from it, traditional automakers are not. I don't understand how you can fail to see that.

Quoted from rubberducks:

They've now had stagnant production figures for 6 (6!!!) consecutive quarters. Wake up.

You say production is stagnant, I say they've continued to dominate luxury car sales for an astonishing 5 years.

And as everyone who follows Tesla knows, there are only so many $100,000 cars you can sell, and their success hinges on rolling out large numbers of Model 3's.

They've been making massive investments in their production lines. Battery production. Automation/robotics. Autonomous driving. User interface. Data collection. Putting big dollars into owning the entire production line. Expanding their supercharger network at an amazing rate. Adding solar production and house/industrial battery production. As with anything worthwhile, it takes time. As with anything worthwhile, some failures and setbacks are inevitable.

People like you blasted Tesla in 2016 saying there was no way they would deliver a single Model 3 in 2017, let alone 2018. Now they're delivering and the goalposts are set back. Now it's because they're only delivering a thousand a week. As soon as they break 2,500 a week people will blast them because they're not making 250,000 a year, then 500,000 a year, etc. etc. People like you will always just move the goalposts and shift your argument to some other nitpick. I've seen it with all the other disruptions, too.

So yeah never mind their current rate of production is an order of magnitude more than they were doing a few months ago. Or that they've been able to about double their car production every year for five years. Never mind that people are loving the car. Let's ignore their astonishing victory delivering a massive power grid to Australia in just a couple of months. Ignore how people love Tesla cars like literally no other car on earth. No, let's just focus on the failures and the past.

I really, really look forward to revisiting your comments in a year @rubberducks, it's going to be so much fun.

#1186 6 years ago

Estimates at 1000 Model 3 per week and just over 7000 produced to date, not sure if this is accurate but if I'm tail end 250,000 number that's quite a while.

I do know one owner of S that passed on the chance to buy a new 3 he may have given the spot to a friend, but I am not sure of the particulars, and I was not interested to buy one at this exact moment, I have a sizable (but unknown) tax bill and a projected cash bonus in the near future so I need a few months to see exactly where I stand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

-1
#1187 6 years ago
Quoted from Brijam:

No, actually they weren't. Facts: in 1998 Amazon's gross revenues were $610 million. Ebay's gross revenues were $502 million for the last two quarters of 1998 alone.
I was very much active in ecommerce and the Internet, as a user of the Internet since the 80s, professionally and as an investor starting in 1994 and it was by no means common knowledge that Amazon would even be around in two years, let alone 20 and be in the position they were in now. As I said.
It's exceptionally unwise to assume things about people. I did quite well in the 90's being aware of the massive change that disruption had on established players. I saw and said and profited the same with many disruptions as they happened -- IBM and the PC, Apple and the iPod and iPhone, digital cameras, Sony's PlayStation, and Tesla to name a few.
Ignore disruption at your own peril.
Amazon was unfettered by the brick and mortar incumbents. The incumbents, like today's automakers, saw Amazon coming. People told them to make massive investments in the Internet. And they failed to do so, and in so doing, they failed. By 1998 Amazon was big and sure they were on the radar of the big brick and mortars, but the incumbents thought Amazon merely had a toehold and they could jump in any time they wanted. The time that the incumbents should have begun their massive investments was no later than 1996. It's the same now with automakers.
A flameout for a massive corporation takes years if not decades, so it's not surprising that many people can't see it. But the story has already been written. It's now just waiting to play out.
Could incumbent automakers survive this disruption and still stay on top? Sure. They'd have to turn their backs on their dealers and sell direct, though. I don't see that happening.

Since you're curious, I'll try to walk you through it.
Since the Bolt has been for sale for so long one would expect, if it were a successful car, that it would meet the expectations of the carmaker. It hasn't. Sales have been dreadful according to Chevy. Chevy said they could easily sell 50,000. They sold less than half of that.
https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-sales-prediction/
As I said, the Bolt isn't a bad car. It just doesn't compare to the Tesla Model 3 for a number of significant reasons. On top of that, the GM dealer network doesn't want to sell EVs. That's the real problem for GM, and all incumbent automakers.
It's not so much a victory for Tesla as it is the nature of the game now. Tesla is poised to profit from it, traditional automakers are not. I don't understand how you can fail to see that.

You say production is stagnant, I say they've continued to dominate luxury car sales for an astonishing 5 years.
And as everyone who follows Tesla knows, there are only so many $100,000 cars you can sell, and their success hinges on rolling out large numbers of Model 3's.
They've been making massive investments in their production lines. Battery production. Automation/robotics. Autonomous driving. User interface. Data collection. Putting big dollars into owning the entire production line. Expanding their supercharger network at an amazing rate. Adding solar production and house/industrial battery production. As with anything worthwhile, it takes time. As with anything worthwhile, some failures and setbacks are inevitable.
People like you blasted Tesla in 2016 saying there was no way they would deliver a single Model 3 in 2017, let alone 2018. Now they're delivering and the goalposts are set back. Now it's because they're only delivering a thousand a week. As soon as they break 2,500 a week people will blast them because they're not making 250,000 a year, then 500,000 a year, etc. etc. People like you will always just move the goalposts and shift your argument to some other nitpick. I've seen it with all the other disruptions, too.
So yeah never mind their current rate of production is an order of magnitude more than they were doing a few months ago. Or that they've been able to about double their car production every year for five years. Never mind that people are loving the car. Let's ignore their astonishing victory delivering a massive power grid to Australia in just a couple of months. Ignore how people love Tesla cars like literally no other car on earth. No, let's just focus on the failures and the past.
I really, really look forward to revisiting your comments in a year rubberducks, it's going to be so much fun.

After wading through that, I can only figure that you're either completely delusional, or so invested in their product / stock that you're terrified of acknowledging failure.

#1188 6 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Estimates at 1000 Model 3 per week and just over 7000 produced to date, not sure if this is accurate but if I'm tail end 250,000 number that's quite a while.
I do know one owner of S that passed on the chance to buy a new 3 he may have given the spot to a friend, but I am not sure of the particulars, and I was not interested to buy one at this exact moment, I have a sizable (but unknown) tax bill and a projected cash bonus in the near future so I need a few months to see exactly where I stand.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

They have not built 500 model 3's in a week as of February 16, 2018. January, 2018 was their best Month to date with 1800 total. A far cry from the proclaimed 2500/week.

I have a vested interest in wanting them to immediately get to the 2500/ week number.

#1189 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

After wading through that, I can only figure that you're either completely delusional, or so invested in their product / stock that you're terrified of acknowledging failure.

In other words you have nothing meaningful to rebut my points so you resort to a personal attack. Got it.

#1190 6 years ago

I personally hope they’re waiting till April 1 or even July 1 to deliver their 200,000th US car. That would give the most people the full tax rebate (myself included).

And to the guy who is contemplating getting a model S: just do it. I have one. If you have the means, max it out. Get the p100D with ludicrous mode and it will blow your mind.

Rubberducks guy: come for a ride sometime and you’ll likely be less distespectful of Tesla’s accomplishments.

#1191 6 years ago
Quoted from paynemic:

I personally hope they’re waiting till April 1 or even July 1 to deliver their 200,000th US car. That would give the most people the full tax rebate (myself included).
And to the guy who is contemplating getting a model S: just do it. I have one. If you have the means, max it out. Get the p100D with ludicrous mode and it will blow your mind.
Rubberducks guy: come for a ride sometime and you’ll likely be less distespectful of Tesla’s accomplishments.

I'm Canadian and my date was just moved up from late 2018 to mid 2018. My understanding is he is switching to Canada to delay the 200,00 car in the US till July. I don't understand your tax credit deal but I have some hope I might get a car this year.

#1192 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

But there are other incumbents in this industry who are far bigger, produce far less flawed products, have much better infrastructure, can scale far harder, and have way better engineers.

Wrong on every single point here except "bigger". I'm a Tesla owner and i've had exactly zero problems with mine after 1.5 years, and there are no flaws or finish issues. in fact it's been a phenomenal driving experience. You keep saying "oh they're built like crap" based on one biased review, but Tesla has THE #1 HIGHEST CUSTOMER SATISFACTION OF ANY CAR COMPANY SEVERAL YEARS RUNNING. That would not be true if their cars were anywhere near as crappy as you keep assuming.

tsla custom satisfaction (resized).pngtsla custom satisfaction (resized).png

https://electrek.co/2017/12/21/tesla-tsla-tops-customer-satisfaction-survey-auto-industry/

Quoted from rubberducks:

No-one else is blowing through money as quickly as Tesla, granted, but they have very little to show for it so far.

Wrong. They have one of the most well received and award-winning cars in automotive history (the Model S unanimously won Motor Trend Car of the Year in 2013, scored 103 out of 100 on Consumer Reports Road Test, and dozens of other awards), the gigafactory, several other gigafactories in production, the world's largest charging network, and more demand than they can satisfy at the moment.

The major automakers would KILL to have Tesla's level of buzz and reputation among consumers.

They've gone from selling zero cars a year to selling over 100,000 a year in 5 short years. Their revenue increases 50% every year. Right now, they are focusing on building up their capabilities. That takes capital and time. But if you think Elon Musk is going to run out of either of those commodities any time soon, you are only fooling yourself.

#1193 6 years ago

A lot of people have forgotten that the Model 3 was originally set to come out 2020. Tesla moved that date up. So really they are still ahead of the game.
I have a reservation in for a model 3 but I am waiting for the AWD Performance model. Probably mid next year some time. I'm fine with that.

#1194 6 years ago
Quoted from rubberducks:

They've now had stagnant production figures for 6 (6!!!) consecutive quarters. Wake up.

That data seemed fishy, so I looked for data myself.

I'm not sure where the OP got their data, but this chart shows a different story:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/

FTFA:
Q2 2015: 11,532
Q3 2015: 11,603
Q4 2015: 17,400
Q1 2016: 14,820
Q2 2016: 14,370
Q3 2016: 24,500
Q4 2016: 22,000
Q1 2017: 25,000
Q2 2017: 22,000
Q3 2017: 26,150
Q4 2017: 29,870

Looking at a larger dataset tells me a different story: Q4 2017 was more than a 35% increase over Q4 16, and more than double - nearly TRIPLE Q3 2015. Not exactly what I'd call stagnant! Note this doesn't factor in growth from solar and battery sales.

How easy it is to tell different stories with the same data, and how dangerous it is to cherry pick data from a narrow range as it doesn't factor in seasonal differences or longer term trends.

#1195 6 years ago

SpaceX is doing phenomenal. The recent Falcon Heavy rocket launch was historic. Every rocket made before these are now obsolete old technology. SpaceX is also a private company, they don’t need to keep investors happy and can spend their money any way they want. SpaceX had saved Tesla from the brink of failure before and I’d imagine that if times get real tough again, that Elon will find the funds needed to keep Tesla a float.

#1196 6 years ago

Well, be careful of those potholes out there, folks! Driving to work yesterday and I blew out my front and rear right tires by hitting a pothole in the dark on I40. Bummer. Got towed on a flatbed without incident (have your owner's manual in the car as there are a couple of settings needed while towing). New tires being put on today. Luckily nobody hurt and no damage to the car. Tennessee Dept of Transportation is supposedly reimbursing people for tires from potholes as we have such a major issue this year. Hopefully so. I was pleasantly surprised that 2 tires are 'only' costing $770 total. I thought it would be much more as I have the upgraded rims on my car with the low profile performance tires.

#1197 6 years ago

glad you and the car are ok.

#1198 6 years ago

another successful spacex mission to put up a satellite for spain

#1199 6 years ago

Holy crap it’s time!!!

5A2D6148-63E5-4590-BB0E-8244049123AD (resized).png5A2D6148-63E5-4590-BB0E-8244049123AD (resized).png

#1200 6 years ago

I'm hoping for mine next week.

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