Imagine the never ending scroll if ever human driver accident made actual news. Yeesh.

This video is fairly thought provoking on the use of driverless cars. Also, in the video it shows several brands actively testing autopilot features.

http://money.cnn.com/technology/our-driverless-future/driver-death-rate-zero/

I don't plan to.

I think that Tesla can make the 3 fully autonomous as is. I, too, have read and seen articles saying it can't be done, but those usually focus on the fact that you must have lidar, and I think that Tesla had enough data from their earlier systems to really believe that they don't need it, so who am I to say otherwise.

Sure, some other people who have been developing other autonomous systems have said that you need it, but of course they have - they are developing other autonomous systems. They aren't going to say that Tesla can do something they can't.

But Tesla keeps doing things no one believes that they can do - like the stats for the Semi - so why couldn't they do this?

The only thing I think Tesla needs to do is figure out how to clear off the cameras if need be, and they may already have enough a plan for that I don't know about. The Bolt has a thing that spray cleans the rear cameras which is neat. That is the only thing I think Tesla is missing.

The reason that I don't plan to get it until it comes out is twofold though...

The first, I probably won't get autopilot right away either. I love the tech, but I know myself - I'll be staring at my phone or completely zoned out if the car isn't fully driving itself, just like they say not to do. I know that's my personality.

When full self driving comes, I'll be among the first to do it though. Once the machine can make me safe, then let's make it happen.

But I don't want to pay for it until a solid time line happens. I completely believe we'll have fully autonomous cars ready for purchase by 2020, but I don't believe that our laws and things like that will catch up to the reality right away. My guess is it will be about 2025 before individuals will be able to operate their own autonomous vehicles.

Even if it is an extra $1k later to add it (or $2k if I don't get autopilot right away), I'd like to see how that all shakes out before I commit to it. While $1k is an extra 25% over the initial price, with the delivery of that autonomous driving so unclear, I think it's a better use of money to hold onto it.

i like driving. i didn't get the self-driving upgrade in my Tesla, but they give you a 90-day free trial of it. it was cool, but ultimately i didn't find myself using it all that much. I guess if I wasn't working from home, and instead commuting, I would probably get it for heavy traffic, which is really where it saves the most aggravation (note all Teslas come equipped for self-driving, and you can choose to unlock the feature at any time for a fee).

i said this earlier in the thread and i think it is still pretty apt:

only thing i'd change today is i'd bump its leadership up a few notches. it frustrates Wall Street that Tesla constantly misses its targets, but its targets are insanely ambitious.

I wanted to make an observation.

I know 8+ people who own a Tesla. Tesla cars are well known in my immediate working circle and people can afford to buy if they want, but the tax credit is helpful, so when the tax credit goes away Tesla will have to sell on it's own merit (not at a price offset by tax dollars).

My co-worker just bought a Audi S5 Sportback which swims in the same neighborhood as a Tesla S. Here is a Car and Driver mini review

https://www.caranddriver.com/audi/s5-sportback

the car as tested price of $68K so the Tesla S price is *right there* and the two cars are similarly sized for family 4-door hatchback etc.. they basically are in the same exact ballpark. Most people are fine with ICE cars and they don't mind if they need to stop for gas every 5-8 days.

I asked my friend who bought Audi S5 why not a Model S. He said he thinks EV cars are fine but not anything that he feels is necessarily 100% better than ICE. EV has benefits of being cheaper to fuel, instant TQ less to maintain. But the ICE is still the king because it can be fueled whenever you want without any pre-planning. If you want to trip up from Maryland to NYC and back you can start with full tank and one fuel stop on the way back taking less than 10 minutes to refill.

Tesla are somewhat tied down to the charging. If I get a Tesla 3, I'll still be using the ICE cars for long trips. And may prefer something with a old school manual transmission like a Mustang GT or Cayman etc.

I have to correct some misinformation in that last post.

You haven't had to plan ahead on a trip in a Tesla for years now. There are superchargers and destination chargers all over the place, and they're all free*.

More than 99% of the time people aren't driving on long trips. The vast majority of the time with an EV you save time since you never have to go to a gas station - you charge your car at home. Do you get gas once a week and spend 10 minutes doing so? That's 520 minutes a year you save with an EV.

Everyone knows that on a longer trip, gasoline costs tons more but you fill up a bit faster. But let's look at this a little more closely. I just drove a new Mustang from Portland to LA, about 1,000 miles. I've also made the trip in my Tesla several times. With an ICE car I eat and then I have to get fuel. With my Tesla, I charge my car while I'm eating. So many of my charges don't take any extra time at all, while getting gas takes 10 minutes each time on top of eating. I ate 5 times on my trip, so that's 50 minutes I had to spend getting gas that I didn't spend with my Tesla, that's two charges. Halfway in Sacramento I also charge overnight so that doesn't take any extra time either. That's half my charging taking zero time right there. So I have four more times that I'm not eating or sleeping that take 30 minutes each, during which I stretch, take a little walk, get a snack and go to the bathroom. So maybe, maybe I spend an extra hour and a half over a 1,000 mile trip. For the comfort and safety of using autopilot, with no fuel cost, that extra time is nothing.

A Maryland -> NYC trip is a perfect example. It's a 3.5 hour drive and well within the range of any Tesla on a single charge. Get lunch or dinner anywhere along the way (or in NYC) with a supercharger or a destination charger and you spend zero extra time charging and it costs nothing. Or stay the night and charge for free. With an ICE car you waste 20 minutes and however much 400 miles of fuel costs you, because you have to fill up before you leave and at least once on the way.

*If you ask any Tesla owner including me, we can give you a code for free Supercharging for life if you buy a Model S or X - they just renewed the program. I have a couple of codes left.

Picked up our 3 yesterday. It’s a fantastic car. My model S is still faster off the line, but the 3 has it in the turns. Tesla has a winner on their hands.

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My first mod: took off the aero covers and replaced it with a Model S center cap.

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Congratulations! It's beautiful.

That's what I think people don't fully look at. I thought an ev was completely silly until we started looking at one as an around town car. I then started doing the math...

My last big driving trip was with adult male friends and took us to some amusement parks. We were trying to drive in between parks quickly, as getting away from our homes and lives isn't easy, and the less driving we can do, the more coasters we can do.

If I got a long range Model 3, of the five trips in between parks that I took, I would have needed to stop at Super Chargers on two legs of the trip, assuming destination charing (and the hotels we used generally did have destination charing already, and this was a couple years ago.) at both times I stopped, I would have needed to get about 150 miles added to the battery, which would give me a lot of cushion to each destination. The trip was four nights.

The gas car that we used needed to be refilled every 300 miles. With no way to fill up our car at night, our 1500 mile trip needed four gas stops at about ten minutes per. That means to drive a long range 3, it would have cost me 20 minutes...

But wait, the first stop that we took included us all taking a bathroom break and waiting in line at McDonald's to buy food. Total time there was close to 30 minutes as the line for food was a bit long. So... That right there makes the time we would spend equal.

Oh, and then... Each time we would eat, we would go in to get food to also use the restroom. We'd still get it to go. That happened twice more. Average time for these was probably ten minutes, but now with food combined with charging, I'd actually save 20 minutes using a long range ev.

It all depends on how you set up your time, but I plugged in some other trips I had done and got similar results. If I was going to drive like 1,000 miles a day for some reason, it would be a pain in the ass (about 2.5 additional hours of charging versus 30 minutes of refilling), but I'm at the point in my life that I never want to run 1,000 miles in a day again because that just sucks.

I'm now just stuck trying to figure out if RWD in Wisconsin winters is completely insane or not. I want the details to come out about AWD, and it is rumored that my be sooner than later...

I’ve been on the wait list for about 21 months. I’m looking forward to getting on!!

ouch.. I hope this is just a bad early sample:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-3-teardown-by-engineering-firm-reveals-qual-1822678045

I was wondering when that would appear here. Firm heavily financed by the the big three hits Tesla with a scathing review who would have guessed. Any car that even remotely rocks the boat gets hit with this stuff. They don't even mix up the playbook. I pre ordered the Smart when it caused a very minor ripple in the industry and it was the exact same thing. They even went on about the support pillars in it. It's literally rinse and repeat.

I just got my email to configure!! I’m a Day one preorder and own a model S and live in Idaho! So they’re getting out there.

Sadly, I’m gonna wait for the stripped down version. I already have a loaded tesla and want to try the absolute base.

Yeah I got mine a couple days ago too!

The Tesla is in space. SpaceX launched with Elon Musk's Tesla on board and appears to be successful so far.

That launch was astounding.

I'm more interested in SpaceX than Tesla and I'm more interested in Tesla renewable energy battery storage than vehicles but more power to Elon and his forward thinking.

I took some screenshots of the Roadster in orbit around Earth -- it'll make a final burn towards Mars later tonight, after which it will do laps around the solar system for a billion years or so. I love seeing the Earth's reflection in the first pick.

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+1

seeing the rocket boosters land vertically was insane.

I was standing outside the VAB about 3 miles from the launch. That is basically as close as anyone can get. The launch was almost as loud as the Space Shuttle used to be. Still shockingly loud with 5 million pounds of thrust! We were also able to clearly see the two strap-on cores return and land from our vantage point. Cool indeed. Funny thing is that I have worked for NASA for 30 years and still get excited. I watched with our new trainee who just started work on Monday as an Aerospace Engineer and this was his first ever launch in person. He was excited to say the least. A day he will remember the rest of his life.

The whole thing is so ridiculously awesome! A fantastic giant rocket roaring to space for the first time, the completely surreal image of two boosters landing simultaneously like a scene right out of a science fiction movie, and then the sight of a friggin' Tesla roadster with a space man driving it in space with the Earth shining in the background. Loved it!

Also so refreshing to see all the younger people working at SpaceX totally pumped to be changing the world.

A refreshingly positive event in what's been a flood of depressing developments lately.

Notice the earth’s reflection on the side of the car. Gotta admit, Musk has style and “ a huge set” to dream this big and actually accomplish it.

So cool.

Here’s the live feed of musks Tesla in space

I just watched the news and saw today's launch and the return of the boosters back to Earth. Un......freakin........believable!!!!!!

I have a hard time believing this but I know it's real. 114 years after flight was first achieved, look what humanity has achieved. Mankind is amazing!!!! I hope we all can find a way to live on this planet in peace and continue to out do the mind boggling achievements that ocured today

QSS

Today was a great day for humanity.

Watched the launch live with my 9 and 13 year olds. They put away their electronics and we all sat glued to the TV. I narrated some of the important parts, emphasizing there was a good chance things could blow up, but we don't want that to happen because so many people have worked on this.

So to see it launch successfully, then the landing of the rockets like out of Star Wars, and then the final majestic view of the Starman over earth, was amazing.

I can't remember a time space has caught so much interest since I was a kid watching the early Space Shuttle launches. A great day.

I remember watching the Challenger in ‘86. I was 8 years old and glued to the TV set. .....that’s a memory that will stay with me forever.

The booster rockets landing simultaneously was awesome. The future is on its way, I hope everyone is ready.

Here are two pragmatic articles, including studies, on EV's. People should really dig into non 'news site' articles (or even worse, chain email and facebook content) before they throw out comments like "EV's are way worse for the environment than gas!" or "EV's will save the planet!".

The truth, as it almost always is, lays somewhere in between (and depends a lot on which EV and where that EV resides).

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-cars-are-not-necessarily-clean/

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517146/are-electric-vehicles-better-for-the-environment-than-gas-powered-ones/

Same here. Kids loved it. Seeing those boosters land is surreal.

I went to the final shuttle launch of Atlantis. Waiting for the countdown timer on the causeway here:
shuttle (resized).jpg

Much like seeing your first dragster show, there is no sound/feeling like a rocket launch. There's a good 20-30 second sound delay, and then the sound starts rolling towards you like a wave. It's like a crackle and a rumble at the same time.

I need to keep an eye when the first manned flight is going to happen with the dragon. supposedly 2 private people put down deposits for a flight to the moon and back at 70 million a pop.

On 11/1, the day of the Q3 conference call my reservation got bumped a month. I wonder if they'll adjust the estimator again tonight. I predict that I'll go from dec-feb to feb-april and deliver in early May.

The key is the transitioning of power plants away from coal and oil. Natural gas, hydro, solar, nuclear, and wind are cleaner when done properly. There will also likely be other breakthrough power generation/energy sources during the ramp up of electric vehicles which will take several decades for the cars to become the standard.

Who else just got pushed by 3 months?
I was hopeful to still benefit from the full 7,5k rebate.....well, looks like it will only be for previous owners.....

Those articles were old when it still wasn't certain that things in electricity generation would transition anytime soon. Electric companies were still making it sound like it would be nearly impossible to transition. Xcel Energy in Colorado solicited some bids for renewable energy recently and got bids for wind with storage for a *median* bid of $21/MWh.

To operate a currently existing coal plant is supposed to be around $30/MWh.

So, including some sort of storage (they don't say exactly what), at least in Colorado, it will be cheaper to build new than to operate existing. And the prices of all this stuff keeps dropping faster and faster.

Coal isn't coming back, and a larger share of electricity every year will be renewables. In ten years, a new ICE car from this year will give out the exact same emissions. An electric car will have dropped along with the source of generation.

And if anyone wants to bet against renewables with this one, their cost keeps dropping much, much faster than was predicted.

Having said *all that*, while I believe that global warming is perhaps the most important thing that we're facing, but I'm also a realist. My Leaf purchase had nothing to do with me thinking that by driving it I would save the planet. My solar panels have nothing to do with me thinking it will save the planet. It's a relatively minor impact in the entire thing. It came *simply* because the savings for doing it was considerable, and as a byproduct the Leaf is a far better car to drive than our old ones. I want a Model 3 not to save the world, but because I would much rather drive a long range electric every day than my old ICE car. I'd consider any car that has a long range and a nationwide charging infrastructure.

I did too, but the rebate won't be just for previous owners. I got pushed to an August - October delivery. At best (worst?), Tesla will start the phase out in Q2. There is a chance it won't be until Q3. If it is Q2, all cars sold and delivered until 9/30/17 will get the full rebate. Q3 is until the end of the year.

There is a conspiracy on one of the Tesla forums that I check in with sometime that they also delayed the SR version to maximize profits, as the estimate for it for me and others went from Summer to 2019, but if you listened to the call, they had issues with the batteries and are expecting to bring up the LR battery line to full speed next month. I figure once they do, they'll start tooling up for the SR battery lines next after that. I'm very interested in seeing what the AWD option (and delivery window!) look like...

I got pushed back too. Late 2018 for standard range. (Day 1 reservation, previous owner). I’m guessing that will still qualify for full $7500 rebate. Iirc the full rebate goes for a full two quarters after the quarter in which they hit 200,000 vehicles. So unless they hit that before March 31 (unrealistic I think) all sales through the end of year will get the full rebate. And then the half rebate goes for two more quarters (I think— please correct me if you know more). A bummer, but I’m a Tesla fan and if this helps then through the cash crunch, I’m happy.

No, this is the quarter in which they hit it and the following quarter.

Then it is $3750 for two quarters.

Then $1875 for two quarters.

Then phased out.

I have a hunch that as the rebate phases out, the car will either get upgrades or price decreases, not quite to match the federal phase out, but to help make people feel like they aren't being ripped off.

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I got on list when first 3 was delivered so like July and my estimate is now 2019 for twin engine.

I’m not concerned because I don’t need it currently. My friend owns an S and got invited to buy their 3 but has a regular ICE car that is fine, the 3 would have to replace their other car so they’d go from paid off car to $40K car which they don’t *need* so they may pass their spot on to a friend.

But she told me driving the S on long trips is still not optimal because of charging, if it’s a house you visit you’re getting 10 miles an hour and the super chargers are not everywhere. She was under the impression when she got the S there would be a lot more super charging stations than there are. I also wonder if once there’s 5x more Teslas on the road if you’d ever get stuck waiting for a charging station to open up. As people say it’s just 20 minutes can eat a lunch but what now if you need to wait 20 minuets just to wait a other 20 minuets. What if someone is changing and doesn’t return when it’s done? You have to track them down or can you disconnect and be able to charge as soon as first car is done?

Heck I don’t like waiting for gas at Costco when it’s 5 minuets to get to the pump, I can see this being a real issue if they don’t expand charging areas.

My friend said although she has the S they *always* take the ICE car on trips because it’s just so much more convenient to get gas.

Also she didn’t like no gauges in front of the steering wheel, that’s a big demerit for me as well. At this time people dropping out is not a big deal but I wonder what’s the long term effect once the pre orders are filled and/or people are not getting the rebate. Make no mistake $35k minus $7500 is a great deal. Once it’s no more rebate and/or people are spending another $20k on options it’s a totally different proposition. I mean no problem if you don’t like the fact of no gauges at $27k after rebate but a different story at $50k loaded car no rebate.

Nah. I got bumped from dec-feb to mar-may. The $7,500 will be around until the end of Q3, they aren't going to hit the limit this quarter.

The first bump was 1 month, obvious it wasn't going to happen. I'm happy my window opens again in 3 weeks, but I also expect this to be the last bump.

Non-owner.

I also just got bumped to the May - July group. Ordering the bigger battery premium upgrades.

I picked up my M3 two weeks ago, and driving it still makes me feel like a little kid on Christmas with a new toy. This car will be worth it for those that wait. I like driving it more than I do driving my wife's Model X.

I know this is a M3 thread on a pinball forum, but if anyone needs a referral code for an S or X to get FREE supercharging, I have plenty of referrals to give. PM me.

How much does it raise your electric bill?

I have a friend with an S and he charges his at the office or uses other public chargers as much as possible and said when he is diligent he can get his monthly cost to $5-10 at home. Chargers are pretty common, big malls have a couple and he will use them whenever he hits a movie. He did say he sees more movies.

Our Leaf costs right around $10 in electricity (at 14 cents per kwh) per week. That's usually about enough to go 250-300 miles per week.

The car is replaced would cost us ~$40 in gas per week.

I don't know when she got it, but they have been adding them like crazy. A few years ago it was pretty difficult. Today? Almost everywhere you're good.

This was a problem, so they added a thing where if you are squatting in the parking spot for no reason, you get charged for the extra time.

Well, yeah, which is why they keep expanding the network. And they track data usage on how many people are charging when and at what locations so they can ensure that they are building in the right spots. It's super sophisticated, and far better than the random way everyone else is opening charging stations just where ever.

I was thinking about this today as I drove around and I realized when checking my speed that to check it I really didn't have any peripheral vision of the road. The screens mount is higher and I would actually have peripheral vision of the road when looking at it.

I don't think that is a real issue with the screen. I think there is a bit of an issue with the usability of the screen, and I understand why taking your eyes off the road to change your wiper speed or something is a problem.

But, I also think that this is a temporary issue and within a year, the majority will be voice command with the smaller stuff mapped contextually to those wheel scroll things. Once that happens, it won't matter.

If autonomy ever goes live, it will be extremely preferable, especially if people can "loan" out their cars.

...and there was an interesting thought about that on the call yesterday. They noted they hadn't made the cross country trip yet because they focused on other things, but that they are close to being able to do it, and they think they will demonstrate it within the next three to six months.

The person who posed the question then asked how soon customers would get that upgrade, and the response was that they expect it will be ready when the demonstration happens.

There was also a really fascinating explanation by Musk about why they don't use LIDAR and why he thinks it is actually a competitive advantage not too. Fascinating, and I hope he's right!

Thanks! Darscot and goatdan

Road and Track first drive

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/first-drives/a15070866/tesla-model-3-test-drive-review/

No problem mrossman, I have a whole chart I can send you if you'd like with weekly totals since we bought it 4/29. I have to do the most recent calculations, but in think I just surpassed $1000 in savings on Sunday. That doesn't include maintenance which has been ~$2.50, because I had to fill the windshield wiper fluid once and that would have been "free" with an oil change.

That $1000 fuel savings is comparing our 04 Hyundai Tucson to the Leaf including electric cost. The Tucson is a compact SUV, but the Leaf feels similarly a zed inside it. Seems safer, too.