(Topic ID: 167624)

Where will the pinball hobby be in 10 years?

By Rondogg

7 years ago


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    #6 7 years ago

    I will predict pinball machines will not be made in the U.S. EMs will be even more plentiful and still worthless. The 90s machines will be priced way above everything else and the 2000s Stern machines will be the Data East/Sega machines of today. Manufacturers will balloon to double digits and then crash hard to 2 or 3. Stern will be publicly owned or have multiple owners at one point in the ten years.

    Here's an outlandish prediction. Stern's name is bought by a conglomerate. They commission Homepin or a similar Chinese based company to make pins using the Stern name for the U.S.

    #9 7 years ago
    Quoted from raisindot:

    Even the "highest rated" pins will be worth a small fraction of their peak prices since no one will be making replacement parts for them anymore.

    This won't be true. The top titles will still be worth a premium especially in top shape. There will be less of them because some have been used as parts machines. No matter how small the buyer base. Collector's will keep the 90s titles at a very high price.

    #36 7 years ago

    I'm curious what will happen to Stern once Gary dies. Will his children continue the biz? Will a minority owner step up and continue on the same path? Maybe he retires before that happens.

    It's amazing to think Gary's been the driving force of that company for 30 years, through good times and bad.

    #37 7 years ago
    Quoted from Neuromancer87:

    I drive a Chevy Malibu (one of the safest cars on the road.) Those brass-era cars, and really any vehicle made outside of the last 20 years are deathtraps when compared to the technology of today.

    I would actually challenge that notion because of the distractions that new cars provide and the false sense of security that leads to driver mistakes. I'm a more attentive driver when I drive a car with manual steering and manual brakes.

    #56 7 years ago
    Quoted from Air_Pinball:

    It's funny how some people always complain about kids not being into pinball.
    Well guess what? It's our job to expose it to them. Once kids see and actually play pinball, they generally like it, because from their perspective, it is new and different.
    I've watched many kids come into the local pinball arcade and their eyes just light up. You can tell they've never seen a pinball game before.
    As more of us buy them for home use, the potential is there to pass it on to our kids and their friends. My 4 year old like video games, and guess what? He likes pinball too!

    I think it's important to support location pinball as well. Not everyone has the means or space to own a machine but most everyone can drop some coins into a machine and play for a few minutes. Every time I see a location machine I try to play it no matter what shape it's in.

    #238 7 years ago
    Quoted from Otaku:

    I know you're not an EM guy and it has showed more than once but something like a Gottlieb Atlantis (not even rare, either, just a really good game with a theme a lot of people love, almost a 'cliche', like our EM version of Monster Bash or Medieval Madness) can easily go for $1,500 in medium-to-nice condition here on Pinside, probably much more fully restored and even more if it is a spotless original, we're talking at least like several thousand dollars there, and I've seen some of the crazy woodrail guys even pay five figures for a rarity from their breed. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion but that is a hard-headed remark ('in my opinion') and monetary worthlessness is a fact, not an opinion, while personal worth is a different story.
    I'm actually really curious how the EM market will change over time. Just like with solid state machines, every day there are less games as projects and less games waiting for us in warehouses, but at the same time the main collector base for them is getting older.
    I know those bagatelle pinball machines used to have quite a worth too but now that most of the people who can thoroughly enjoy them and reminisce over them have passed away, they're a tough sell these days for anything over $200. (From what I've seen at least) I've heard stories from a collector from the old Mr. Pinball days to back that up too. Interesting, and makes sense. (Also of course kind of sad... but that's a part of life.)

    Kinda surprised at this response, Otaku. I may not be an "EM guy" but I don't think I've ever disparaged them. My favorite style of games are early SS but those are just 80s versions of EMs. The art and gameplay are things I love about EMs. I own two and always have to resist the tempation to buy more.

    And that's why I said EMs are worthless. If you want an EM all you have to do is look on CL and you can find more than one nearby for a couple hundred or less. People are almost giving away games because no one will come take them. The two I bought were less than 150 bucks together.

    Now imagine in 10 years when a lot of the older guys who have hoarded EMs start to get rid of them or their kids get rid of them. There's just going to be too many machines for the market that wants them. There will always be a place for the very high quality games but the average player's quality games are gonna struggle to find a home. There is already an industry of people stripping working games to sell for parts. You're even the beneficiary of parts for a rare game that someone was ready to pitch.

    I know you're an EM guy and it has showed more than once but even you were realizing in your post the demand for EMs is dwindling while supply in the marketplace is rising. In 10 years that situation is going to be worse.

    #247 7 years ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    Lumping all EMs in the same price range is more ridiculous than saying all DMDs are worth the same, because they made hundreds if not thousands more different titles and the era lasted more than twice as long.
    So yes , you will see many common ones in bad shape come up for cheap all the time. That's because most collectors of this era don't want to bring that kind of game home. Those are usually starter games for newbies.
    I've been involved in this long enough to know there are EMs that collectors will pay as much if not more than some of the highest priced modern DMD games to get that gem they have been looking for.

    Is Sing Along a popular one? I thought it was because someone was making repro backglasses. There was one on CL in good shape for a little over $400. It was on there for more than a month. It might still be on there.

    It's nice to see they are going up in price in the Northwest.

    #259 7 years ago
    Quoted from Gerrard17:

    I'd be curious to see what 10 years does to pinball in Australia. It seems like the growth here has been fuelled by a significant number of well priced, pinball filled shipping containers being brought over from Europe and the US entering the market. When the availability of these bulk numbers coming into the country dries up, which must be now or imminent, it will surely impact price and maybe popularity.
    Maybe the bargain stories will change from
    "I picked up a TZ for $1000 back in 04"
    to
    "I picked up a TZ for $6000 back in 16"

    I wonder if Homepin will be the solution to your price woes. If Stern has them making machines for them too, that'll be even more machines coming your way.

    #272 7 years ago

    Pinball may end of having a cooler factor with kids if they aren't exposed to them until they are older. It's an interesting idea.

    #311 7 years ago
    Quoted from Luzur:

    Well in my view if the prices came down to reasonable levels more blood would get into the hobby, atleast here in Sweden i keep hearing people around me say "i would love to own one, but i dont have the cash for them" after playing mine.

    I think you're right. We need innovation in pricing rather than tech. Prices have been continually rising but it hasn't hurt sales. If someone were able to produce a unique game with a fun theme at a low price, how many games could they sell?

    #362 7 years ago
    Quoted from Rarehero:

    -Dracula: We never saw a ball "levitate" across a playfield

    This was done before Dracula but not a lot of people saw it. It could be the same with some of the other things, I don't know. A lot of the "new" ideas are just forgotten features of EMs.

    Sega made a game called Galaxy with a moving magnet under the playfield that transported the ball from left to right in an arc. It was called the Space Patrol feature.

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    #364 7 years ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    Not a lot of people saw it because a lot of this crowd wasn't playing pinball until recently. Some that think they know a lot more than they do.

    Well I haven't played the either but I would love to.

    #369 7 years ago

    Not all pins from Stern are devoid of unique features.

    When I look at Metallica, I don't notice Sparky. It's the hammer and snake that draw my attention. The hammer is really cool because it locks the ball under the playfield where you can see it. Ghostbusters has that ramp that goes under the playfield which is pretty cool but doesn't really tie into the license all that well. Wrestlemania has a very unique ring but the problem is it dominates the playfield and the code doesn't use it well. Family Guy has mini pinball which isn't in another game that I know of besides Shrek.

    #382 7 years ago
    Quoted from Phat_Jay:

    Im upset he so casually admitted it, like its not a problem. I dunno, maybe its just me but, Its one thing to stammer on about numbers and stats and costs. Its quite another to flat out essential say hes a sell out. Im very happy we still have stern in the usa, dont get me wrong, but there is a very real problem. Id like it if he said thats the reality but continued to TRY to make an original stand alone game. Hes a smart guy with more money than most of us will see in a lifetime, why couldnt he have one pet project every few years that was more substance than just flash? I suppose his answer to that would be he wouldnt be wealthy long if he did that.....

    I feel like Stern did that with Whoa Nellie. They didn't have to make that at all and the demand has seemed pretty low.

    #418 7 years ago
    Quoted from drsfmd:

    Because it's a turd, not because it's an unlicensed theme.

    I enjoyed it. Whoa Nellie is pretty fun if you get a chance to play it.

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