Ten years from now will be more of the same. we will have more license themed pins with lcd to please the hoard and maybe wifi for code up date but not really necessary.

Bally/williams pins will drop in price as newer better games come out.

Sure, and I am sure there have been real turds that were unlicensed games as well. Licensed vs unlicensed doesn't mean whether or not it is going to be "good" (eye of the beholder) or not, but good licenses have a built in market that will help sales, unlicensed themes don't, which makes unlicensed games more risky from a business perspective.

I would guess that it is likely, given two pins that are just as good, that a good license will have the pin sell more than an unlicensed in today's market. Take Full Throttle for example. Great game imo. However my guess is Aliens will outsell it significantly, even if the games are are roughly equivalent in gameplay "fun".

Nope. Those games will always be fun, always have the best features and toys, always have the best build quality, and will always be finite in number and desired by players/collectors. People said JJP's games would crush the used game market. Nope. They may be fancy, but at the end of the day they didn't negate the classics.

It's like saying it's problematic because people have different computers. Frankly, the same table is far more similar than all the people who play on hardware with huge variances these days yet their scores are all tallied, recorded, and referenced right?

Maybe look at the positives instead of inventing problems that are not even problems.

It's like saying it's problematic because people have different computers. Frankly, the same table is far more similar than all the people who play on hardware with huge variances these days yet their scores are all tallied, recorded, and referenced right?

If nobody gives a shit about comparing scores online why does pinside allow you to upload scores?

Why are you online talking about pinball if online doesn't matter?

Not only is internet connectivity the pinball driving force for pinball information today it has yet to reach its potential. You're saying online connectivity doesn't matter when you are using online functions to discuss pinball. You're a hypocrite.

Yes you can and people have been doing it for decades. It's just new to old pinball people and because it's new that means it's scary.

Just because I use the Internet to find a good restaurant, doesn't mean I want to watch porn on my sandwich.

Have you considered using the internet to find a good psychiatrist?

OOOOOH!!!!! You got me with your internets!!!!!!

Well, what else can be said, buddy - I hope you get your strange strange wish of being able to Internet pinball with Russians, ya maniac.

The only score that matters is the score on that machine. Its not pinball arcade where everybody is playing the same game. Pins vary hugely from pin to pin.

While I agree with you on design, why would I spent $7000nz on an Adams that will need a new pf? when for a couple grand more I can get a GB. Same goes for MM cool game. price point rather get twd pro.

I think high old game pricing and low inventory has definitely led people to buy new games instead - but, someone will always want a classic, and unless all
the current old-game owners simultaneously sell off, prices aren't going to dip.

The only thing that will kill old game value is remakes.

Only if that old game is stupidly priced like MM was right before the remake was announced. Nothing else is really priced that high. Also, there's no way on earth a lot of the oddball-license (but great game) titles will get remade....Shadow, Congo, Dracula, etc.

I dunno, things like $5k 8BDs and $7k Fathoms seem ripe for some price disruptions.

Time will kill the old value I believe. I know the older em novelty game prices have sure softened from a pretty well known collector friend of mine.

Considering the role Pinball Arcade plays in bringing new people to pinball you might want to pay attention to it.

Sure, you can't guarantee every machine is 100% the same.

Vary hugely though? Really?

Why should variance discount head to head play anyway? Two NBA Fastbreaks aren't EXACTLY the same yet it seems to work just fine. Probably because the variance isn't as huge as you are making it out to be.

Whether you get it or not it's going to happen. It's only a matter of time.

Been Thinking alot about where Pinball will be in 10 years.

First, we will be into 2 years, of the NEXT President, assuming this Novembers Winner gets re elected.
In that regard, I think the Rich will be Richer, and the poor Poorer. So Base Games are actually 10K.

But as a luxury niche item, they are all Ala Carte, and assembled to your taste.

Choose from 6 different Cabinet decals,
3 Different Playfield and art,
All the extras we do now, will come direct from factory.
Powder Coating Color, Mods, Lighting, Speakers, Blue tooth, etc.

Code upates, now cost extra with each release, and people try to hack to add their own game code, thats all thats left.

In 10 years...

Ghostbusters VE is released, New Vendor, Insert Issues resurface with a new generation rediscovering the Face Palm Memes.

Kaneda is allowed back on Pinside. But blows his Parole period.

I enjoyed it. Whoa Nellie is pretty fun if you get a chance to play it.

Fathom looks awesome, just wish it wasn't so cliche/expensive in that order

Im into pinball for only two years, aged 40. As many others, I've been surrounded by pinballs until the age of 20/25,but never been into them, preferring video games by far.
So I think pinball is and always will be a past time for 30/60 years old people, and a small niche for enough affluent people with space and stability. I do not believe in a resurgence on location.
Operators now live fixing and trading machines with PRIVATE owners. This is the existing market.
Now, some numbers. During the '90 B/W produced 250.000 machines. How many are still around? Half of them I guess. But many are being restored, more and more in good conditions available year after year. Plus new Stern are adding up.
How many machines have Stern produced so far from 2000? So availability is increasing.
I think in ten years some older collectors will be leaving and some new will arrive (probably less hungry for huge collections anyway). But there will be more machines on the market.
I expect prices to drop, but not extremely. New Stern will drop the most. And also overvalued B/W like MM.
The trend will continue and get worst after 20 years.
But something else is getting scarce instead: maintenance people. Here is where some more money will go.
About innovation: pinball is 100 years old, and well defined as it is. Good and bad tables out there sure, but pinball is mature as it is technology wise. As tennis, ping pong, or baseball. Dramatic innovation could arise, but then it will be something else. look at Pin2K: terrific technology, disgusting gameplay and fun. For me its not even pinball. Really repulsing, if you are over 10 years old.
About internet and fancy new technologies: I like pinball because, although electronic is involved, feels to me mostly as an analogic experience (beside dmd, which is ok if non-colored). We are surrounded by lcd, internet, phones, sms, tvs, etc all day long. Let me enjoy the silverball in its purity, please. The beauty of pinball is in its abstract storytelling: the silverball dance around the playfield and WE imagine the story. Add computer animations, lcd playing parts of movies, and similar stuff... And you kill all the imagination.
In ten years I think it will not be too different from now, but in 20 years prices will be generally lower.
My 2 cents.

williams pinball sales (resized).jpg

Innovation is the key. We will never again see such a rapid almost immediate increase in units sold like this without it.

The only way to achieve sales like that again is to recognise where the broader market trends are heading and everything is pointing to a greater emphasis on screen oriented technology with high levels of interactivity and individual customisation not to mention inbuilt wifi connectivity as a given.

Instead what we are seeing from our market leader is innovation and change only when third party manufacturing essentially forces their hand.

What the market is going through now is known colloquially in stock market terms as a dead cat bounce.

The question is without innovative change how high the trajectory of the feline will be before the inevitable occurs?

Related to prices in ten years:
How many machines have been produced by Williams in 40 years? I do not see a scale on the chart.
How many machines have been produced by Stern over the last 15 years? How many per year (past and future trends)?
How many machines, distingishing between EM and SS are today available on the market? I know nobody knows exactly, but roughly speaking? Very roughly I'd say 1.000.000 overall. What do you think?

In 10 years we may find that there are a whole lotta pinball machines out there, with really no where to put them all.

Much more offer, same or lower demand = lower prices

I think A titles will hold their value better ( unless already way overpriced like MM), while others will crash. Especially the ones with high production numbers.

On the other end saturation will not happen overnight, so Stern will start detecting signals of lower demand and will start reducing production.

Pinball is still going to be fun to play in 10 years, so the game itself will still be around. As far as the 'hobby' of pinball, it may grow, it may shrink. Who knows? But it won't go away. I do see younger people around here that are interested in it. Interested in playing, interested in owning, and interested in fixing machines. The pinball palace that's a half hour down the road from me has at least five or six kids under 20 that have learned the ins and outs of fixing pre-90's machines. There's a 17-year-old kid that plays on my high school golf team that has taught himself how to fix machines. He loves to play the machines, he loves to fix the machines.

I don't know enough about the 'hobby' end of everything pinball, but I do know what I see locally. I don't see all of the gloom and doom that a lot of people here have mentioned.

Totally agree. Pinball will still be there, it's an established game like ping pong or darts.
When we talk about the future in 10 years, it's not about if it will still be there or not. But if it will grow or shrink.
10 years is not that much, even old people now into the hobby are not that old. New generations are coming, also thanks to virtual simulations (a small niche of young generations - but it's also a niche of adult people actually).
No doom and gloom.
I just said that there will be more machines in good conditions on the market, so prices may decrease a bit.
Operators will earn more money, fixing and trading all those machines.

Totally agreed.
Personally as a buyer I already fit perfectly with your descriptions. I totally prefer non licensed machines (with the exceptions of the top ones you mentioned) and I am also in love with licenses from flop or non popular movies like TS, JM, BSD, Congo...: I believe those (amazing) machines developed their own strong personality, similar to non licenced games, entirely out of their great gameplay. It's like some B-side track from obscure old vynils that shows all their potential after being hidden and neglected for long time. This is pinball magic at its top, not the shitty commercial stuff from commercial movies and bands. Those feel like plastic now, and even more in the future.

A pinball machine reflecting the spirit of the times inwhich it has been released is a true historical icon, is a sign of its times. But what about AC/DC or Metallica around 2010? That's clearly a commercial, superficial, plastic product for older people. Time will punish those machines.

I know a several ops in different states and a just a few guys that fix and restore games for a living.

The ops make way more money in a year.

Just an observation...

Bwahahahaa...time will punish Steve Ritchie, John Borg, and Lyman Sheats' masterpieces!!!?!??! Have you ever even played these games? Wanna talk about standing the test of time....that's WHY they made ACDC and Metallica. Excellent music that has stood the test of time, legions of fans hardcore and casual, bands still touring and making people happy. These games are classics. Works of art. FUN. Indisputable.

I hear original Bally Kiss machines are still demanding good money even though there's a modern Stern.

Yup, and that's PURELY on theme...since the game isn't great and doesn't even feature audio that one could call "music". Stern's ACDC and Metallica have everything. Theme, gameplay, music.

If gameplay is great, than theme doesnt matter, the game will always be fun.
But a presently popular theme only helps selling new machines.

...and ACDC and Metallica have EXCELLENT gameplay. Themes helped sales of those games, but the reputation of the gameplay is what made them best sellers.

For "operators" I mean people not only operating, but also trading and fixing machines. It look sto me that with a little resurgence of pinball are doing quite well. And extra need for fixing adds to the turnover.

It's time to retire this one.

Bally KISS is a great playing game by the standards of the day. And it looks better than the new one.

that's what I meant. I am not against Stern machines, new machines, future machines. Just saying that what matters is gamplay. Talking about themes, I prefer non-licensed or obscure ones. But gameplay comes first.

...of the day, sure....but not today. No ramps/no toys/no mechanical features/no multiball/no music = no good.

What a fool....

Is that you, Markmon??

rd

Pinball must have sucked before Markmon and Rarehero arrived on the scene.

Nah, I don't defend poor and unfinished code like Markmon.

As Daffy Duck used to say, "Wotta Maroon!"

That was Bugs' line. Daffy said "You're despicable"

I stand corrected. Thank you.
Still...

It would be nice if Stern did more to take licensed properties into new places: think of what B/W did with CFTBL or MB, adding new elements to the basic license to make it more than it was before. Then again, think of what B/W did with Popeye.

If a new full-size Pokemon pinball machine came out, that would gather some interest from some younger crowds. There is potential to make a good game with capturing the characters and battling with them etc.

No Ramps- check
No Toys- check
No Multiball- check
No good?-

SB (resized).jpg

So we can look forward to mediocre themes and high prices?