Quoted from kaneda:
My point was NIB pinball will be dead in 20 years. Of course people will still play the old stuff. But in 20 years time, almost every pinball company will be out of business. Will be a very very small boutique trade.
I believe it will be dead or on life support as well.
The economy will go down again, there is no doubt. For conservative arguments sake, let's say 5-7 years from now things start to go bad. Then let's say it takes another 5-7 years to START to recover. That's at least 15 years from now before things get good again. I'm 41 so I pretty much lived at the arcade when I was a kid, but not nearly as much as those who are 10-15 years older than me. By the mid to late 80s, arcades were already on the decline. Anyone younger than me really didn't have the same experience, so the nostalgia starts to decline. There are people who are into it, but it isn't the same as the percentages who were in the late 70s early 80s...
So in 15 years I'll be 56 and those who REALLY lived the experience in their teens will be 65-70+. We can't expect that there will be as much demand when the people who really have nostalgia for it are retired grandparents (no disposable income) and/or soon to be dead...lol.
I think it's also safe to assume that many of the barcades popping up all over will also be gone. It's a fad and there are far too many people just now getting into it. Stern will lose that revenue as well.
This is all assuming that Stern can even stay alive during the next downturn. There may not be anyone left by the time things get good again.