This is pretty much where im at also. I'll be looking for a title in the spring, if i cant get it for a reasonable price, i'll just go for a NIB. No way will i pay close to NIB prices for a 20 year old machine, it just doesnt make sense.

Personally i think what drives the prices up are the cost of NIB pins. As they rise, so does everything else. If a NIB pin only costs $4500, there are a lot less people willing to shell out $4000 for a 15-20 year old machine when a NIB can be had for $500 more. Certainly this doesnt apply to everyone, there will still be buyers who just HAVE to have that machine, but i think most would side with me, especially people new to the hobby. There are thousands of titles and many are very very fun games. Not everyone buys into the hype of "whats hot" right now.

Im also not even really sure that there are more people getting into the hobby now then there was 5-10 years ago. An internet forum can easily give the illusion that there are more people getting into the hobby as the people that are out there and have been out there find these forums. People joining forums is not an accurate measure of how much a hobby is growing, if indeed it even is. Without haveing some really hard numbers im not sure how you would gauge this growth or shrinkage.

Your personal experience and people joining here are not and acurate measure. Nor is the "people just didnt buy pins for their home years ago." that is a false statment also. My family bought our Sinbad probably around 1981, and my family was not a well to do family, money was tight. Its possible collectors has grown, but you cant say for sure without hard evidence, real numbers, not "well 20 people joined pinside in the last four months." dont forget there are people leaving the hobby also for one reason or another, getting old, lost interest, need the money, etc..

thank you Pinballhelp, at least some people understand what im saying.

Pinside is not a acurate measure of what is going on in the world, there is a world outside of Pinside, you guys do realize that right? forums are not everyone involved in a hobby. its like saying the guys winning pinball champion ships are the best players in the world. they are the best players of those who are currently competing. i've seen this so many times where people on forums just dont realize that the forum or forums they are on is not EVERYONE involved in a particular hobby.

again, more people showing up at shows is not an acurate measure either. did you ever think that maybe they are showing up because now there is a place for them to go? not everyone who goes to their first show is fresh to the hobby. its amazing how most people cant think outside of their own little world. while this discusion is not right on topic it does pertain to the topic, its fun to speculate weather its growing or not, and this data does have an impact on current and future prices.

you are correct Spooks, we will probably never go back to prices in the past, it could happen some day but certainly not in our lifetime.

we are all just guessing at best on the state of the hobby. maybe its possible if we have some crazy statistics guys on here to gather what data we do have that is out there and come to some conclusion, Pinballhelp touched on this with the graphs he posted but as he stated we would need more info.

I agree Beatmaster, the "demand" thing is total bull. NIB riseing prices have more to do with average pin sale price increase than this speculated "demand."

You got it BoJo, they will continue to try and find that line where people just cant afford to pay the given price of a NIB. Is it $8000? $9000?, i dont know but rest asure they will shoot to try and find it. I know me personally $7500 is a stretch, im not even sure i could make payments set like JJP has. If i was single with no kids then sure i could. Im probably more looking at a HUO thats a few years old, depending on how much its going for at the time. At some point i would imagine even operators will stop buying NIB pins, it depends on how quickly they will earn their money back on route. Given how unstable the profitability of pinball in arcades is, i would guess even at current prices buying four or five NIB pins is a gamble for them, in some cases depending on location, probably not even worth it now for them.

Well...lets look at this logically. Has there been documented pinball tournements 15-20 years ago? And what was the average turn out if there was? The sale of LE's tells me that there are less being sold to be put on route than there is going into peoples homes (the need to reach out to home buyers to filll the gap of routed pins), which then indicates that there are less of the general public interested in playing pins, which we seem to all agree on. None of this tells me directly that the population of pinball players is growing, in fact is says its shrinking.....like your wiener in the pool as was mentioned

I think i might see what your saying Rob, but "supply and demand" only has to do with maybe a handful of machines, in general its not. However a low demand will jack up NIB priceing since inorder to keep manufacturing, as demand drops, typically we see manufactures of whatever have you, raise prices inorder to stay in buisness. Profit margins shrink when your makeing so much less of "xxx" product.

So Neo you mentioned in 92-93 there were somewhere over 100 players at a competion. How does that compare to today?....if anyone can answer, im not sure if you still go or talk to people who go to these.

Rob, supply and demand as i see it only goes for games that are rare, or were produced in very very small quanities. In general, i do not buy into the supply and demand raising current prices at all. There are thousands of titles out there and the where produced in great numbers.

Rob im not here to teach you how things work, your a big boy, you'll figure it out on your own eventually. Ask yourself this question, what makes something rare.....and what makes something worth more than something else? Do you think something is worth more simply because there were less of them made? Also, with all the machines made over the years, do you really beleive we are running out of machines to be had?

If your not trying to be a dick, then by all means dont be. We are just haveing a discussion, we mighT all learn something other than, prices in general are riseing, and your weiner shrinks in the pool...

You missed the earlier comment someone made when i used the word "shrinkage". It's back a page or two, im pretty light hearted i thought it was funny reguardless of the posters intent. My lady, my little girl and myself will be enjoying our time together over Christmas, i wish the same for all you gentlemen, theres nothing more in this thread for me to read. It has been interesting with some interesting points brought up.