With as many people as there are complaining about prices, and those that have actually said "if this continues, I'm out", I'm surprised people have not yet caught on that people *will* seek alternatives.
There seems to be more competition for A-List games than ever, but there are plenty of other games that get overlooked, and therefore are still going for reasonable prices. I don't really like that TAF pricing example. As was stated, many are "new" to the hobby. Many of those that are new (likely roughly the same age) probably played TAF in the arcades. When they're choosing a game for their home, this is often one of the first and most obvious choices. Thus, more competition and higher prices for that particular title.
There are a number of tech threads here where someone will chime in with "send off the boards", or something similar. Not exactly helpful, but also an indicator that a lot of people aren't really interested in learning. That makes it less of a hobby for some. Many don't want to put in the time to learn to diagnose, troubleshoot, and fix their own machines. I would expect those people to eventually grow discouraged with the amount of time that their machines are down, and the cost of keeping them running.
Of those who bought pins in 2012, how many do you own? How many more are you expecting to purchase in 2013? I think a lot of the increase we saw was a sort of landgrab. Many scrambled to get themselves a healthy collection, and now, they're likely slowing their purchases. When adding a new machine, many may be looking to sell a machine first, or trade, which should create more equilibrium in the market.
A new generation of home gaming consoles is coming in the near future. I wonder what affect those will have on the pin market? Every time I read one of these threads, externalaties almost never get mentioned.. There are other forms of entertainment, many are cheaper, and require much less time.
Gas is still around 3.20/gallon (where I live), because as we learned even *that* is not perfectly inelastic.