(Topic ID: 33625)

When will the insane pricing end?

By Pimp77

11 years ago


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    #94 11 years ago
    Quoted from PinballHelp:

    Not necessarily. There are threads indicating there's new people collecting games, but there are also collectors getting out of the business, dying, passing on games, etc.
    For example, let's look at Boston Pinball's ebay sales figure history for pinball machines:

    We are seeing an increase in pinball sale prices, BUT we are also seeing a decrease in the amount of games sold.
    So what the above graph can illustrate is not that the collector market is necessarily growing, but that the law of supply and demand works the way one would expect.
    Another thing the above graph distorts is the "average sale price" which is undoubtedly going up because modern games are selling for five to ten times more than older games. So while it looks like "pin prices are skyrocketing" they really aren't. Their *Average price* is because now people are buying and selling $7000+ games in addition to the standard $500 EMs and $1000 SSs. When you take that into account, it doesn't look like the market is growing that much - there's just higher-priced machines being sold which makes the average go up.
    Not look at a specific graph of a specific game sale history:

    Sale prices for TAF as illustrated above are relatively stable.. they're going up only ever-so-slightly. If the collector market were actually growing significantly, we should see a more significant rise in the sale prices of one of the top pinball machines, but instead, we're only seeing a modest increase which is consistent more with an actual decrease in the number of buyers and available machines.
    In short, there's not a whole lot of evidence that the pinball market is dramatically growing. The uptick in pricing is more consistent with a) less machines being sold and b) newer pinball machine prices pushing up the averages.

    I would be hesitant to place so much emphasis on Ebay data. I have been an active buyer and seller for over 15 years now. Ebay has significantly less relevance as an active marketplace for buying and selling pins today as compared to 5 or 10 years ago.

    This past year I purchased 5 pins and sold around 15, none of which were advertised or found on Ebay or any other sales channel. Other games that I indicated I may sell in the near future already have a few solid buyers lined up for them. Is this hard evidence? No, though I don't need to see a chart of numbers to tell me that the market is stronger now than it has been at any other time in the past 15 years.

    Our pinball hobby is growing. Otherwise, how do you explain the explosion of tournament and league play, and the slow increase of location games in different parts of the country? Not to mention the growth of the limited edition games aimed at the home collector?

    Brian Bannon

    #113 11 years ago
    Quoted from PinballHelp:

    I wouldn't call it an "explosion." There is a slight revival in pinball interest. And there are certainly new people coming to the hobby, but I still think pinball is a "retro" hobby, that typically does not appeal to the mainstream. Whenever news media reports on pinball these days, it's still one of those, "Hey, whatever happened to pinball?"-type stories.
    I think the pinball market is changing. Games are going into peoples' homes now instead of on location. What we are seeing is the maturity of the collector market. Now that people can find information on how to repair and maintain their own games, more people are collecting and restoring games. I've participated in the Texas-based pinball festivals for the last 3 years. I think there's been a small increase in attendance each year, but it hasn't been "explosive" IMO. I think pinball enthusiasts are getting more aggressive in collecting; I think pinball enthusiasts are (on average) hitting that "sweet spot" in age and lifestyle where they have more disposable income and time to get into the hobby. I do not think it's mostly young people buying NIB Sterns.
    I still think pinball is a fringe hobby, and will probably always be - nothing wrong with that. I think if it really did "explode" in terms of interest, most of us collectors would be a lot more upset over pricing and availability of machines. If the industry really did take off, it would be more likely that games would be on location instead of in peoples' houses. If there was an "explosion" in interest, we'd see arcades and operators ramp back up. I still don't really see that. There may be the occasional retro arcade in various areas, but I also think that's more of a labor of love by a collector than a business venture. Look at Dave & Busters... the biggest franchised coin-op outlet and they basically don't care about pinball. When they start filling their places mostly with pinball, then that might be a sign things are exploding.

    Fair enough, you clearly are not seeing the same increase in location pinball in your market. Doing a quick check on Pinballrebel.com, there are only two machines on location in the whole state of LA. How is that possible? Maybe the locator isn't up to date? If true, I can certainly understand why you don't see the same activities that we are seeing here in St Louis. STL metro area has around 190 pins in approximately 80 locations, including 4 locations with 8 or more pins, and one location with 80 pins, CP Pinball. Perhaps the increase in location pinball is more of a regional thing, with certain regions of the country seeing more location pinball than others. Portland is probably the best example of the growth of location pinball and another area of the country with hundreds of game on location.

    I am seeing a different collector today than say, 10 years ago. Of course, this is a generalization, collectors of ten years ago were guys buying and fixing up games, whereas many of the new collectors I see today want a game working and don't mind paying for it. So, the trend I see you describing reminds me more of several years ago and not of today. Again, could be a regional thing.

    I agree with you that pinball is still a retro activity and has not become mainstream. That is probably part of the allure of the game, being retro it is also cool.

    Brian Bannon

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