i meant it as if you bought years ago, not oct.regardless.... i am just a dumb mechanic with a few pins, i ll have my 100 g worth by mid next year, maybe sooner. i ll take my chances. easy come, easy go

I think this is a very valid point and will be a large contributing factor to prices settling, if they are ever going to. Seems like most people in the hobby buy any and every pin they can get their hands on at first, but soon realize they have limited space, so each pin has to be a valuable commodity. Once said space is filled with the pins they know they want and will love for a long time, that circulation cuts down drastically.

Another factor that I think might play a role is that, right now, a lot of people in their 30s are getting into the hobby, largely I would think due to this: people in their 30s now were the perfect age for the arcade/pinball golden age, and these people are finally at a point in their careers where life is stable enough to have a hobby you can sink thousands of dollars into. It will be interesting to see what happens when these collectors start ironing out their collections as well, and see what the generation behind them does.

I'm 29 and kind of rode the last little wave of the golden age of arcade/pinball, was younger than a teenager, but old enough to still really get into it through the late 1980s to late 1990s. However, the people 10 years younger than me and below, it will be really interesting to see if they find their way to the hobby in droves like my generation and the generation ahead of me have. If they don't, and by that time most collectors are pretty settled in their collection, then I could easily see prices leveling out significantly.

With as many people as there are complaining about prices, and those that have actually said "if this continues, I'm out", I'm surprised people have not yet caught on that people *will* seek alternatives.

There seems to be more competition for A-List games than ever, but there are plenty of other games that get overlooked, and therefore are still going for reasonable prices. I don't really like that TAF pricing example. As was stated, many are "new" to the hobby. Many of those that are new (likely roughly the same age) probably played TAF in the arcades. When they're choosing a game for their home, this is often one of the first and most obvious choices. Thus, more competition and higher prices for that particular title.

There are a number of tech threads here where someone will chime in with "send off the boards", or something similar. Not exactly helpful, but also an indicator that a lot of people aren't really interested in learning. That makes it less of a hobby for some. Many don't want to put in the time to learn to diagnose, troubleshoot, and fix their own machines. I would expect those people to eventually grow discouraged with the amount of time that their machines are down, and the cost of keeping them running.

Of those who bought pins in 2012, how many do you own? How many more are you expecting to purchase in 2013? I think a lot of the increase we saw was a sort of landgrab. Many scrambled to get themselves a healthy collection, and now, they're likely slowing their purchases. When adding a new machine, many may be looking to sell a machine first, or trade, which should create more equilibrium in the market.

A new generation of home gaming consoles is coming in the near future. I wonder what affect those will have on the pin market? Every time I read one of these threads, externalaties almost never get mentioned.. There are other forms of entertainment, many are cheaper, and require much less time.

Gas is still around 3.20/gallon (where I live), because as we learned even *that* is not perfectly inelastic.

good points Dave!

I would fit your idea of a landgrab. I filled all my available space in 2012. Buying almost any deal I could find becuase I wanted to build my collection. I have realized Ilike workin on them as much (maybe even more) than playing them. Going forward, I will either need to convince my wife to allow the game room to expand into other rooms of the house or it will be a 1 in 1 out policy.

That said, I also know quite a few other people that will be doing a land grab in 2013. therefore, I do not see things slowing down as much.

I do agree that the new gaming counsels could have a definate impact. Les space, cheaper, and no work to do may appeal to many.

I wouldn't call it an "explosion." There is a slight revival in pinball interest. And there are certainly new people coming to the hobby, but I still think pinball is a "retro" hobby, that typically does not appeal to the mainstream. Whenever news media reports on pinball these days, it's still one of those, "Hey, whatever happened to pinball?"-type stories.

I think the pinball market is changing. Games are going into peoples' homes now instead of on location. What we are seeing is the maturity of the collector market. Now that people can find information on how to repair and maintain their own games, more people are collecting and restoring games. I've participated in the Texas-based pinball festivals for the last 3 years. I think there's been a small increase in attendance each year, but it hasn't been "explosive" IMO. I think pinball enthusiasts are getting more aggressive in collecting; I think pinball enthusiasts are (on average) hitting that "sweet spot" in age and lifestyle where they have more disposable income and time to get into the hobby. I do not think it's mostly young people buying NIB Sterns.

I still think pinball is a fringe hobby, and will probably always be - nothing wrong with that. I think if it really did "explode" in terms of interest, most of us collectors would be a lot more upset over pricing and availability of machines. If the industry really did take off, it would be more likely that games would be on location instead of in peoples' houses. If there was an "explosion" in interest, we'd see arcades and operators ramp back up. I still don't really see that. There may be the occasional retro arcade in various areas, but I also think that's more of a labor of love by a collector than a business venture. Look at Dave & Busters... the biggest franchised coin-op outlet and they basically don't care about pinball. When they start filling their places mostly with pinball, then that might be a sign things are exploding.

What do you mean "also"? NIB prices ARE PART OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

Prices of older games have gone up due to supply and demand.

Used game prices have gone up at an increased rate due to the ever increasing price of NIB and how it has changed perceptions of what is a fair range of prices for a game.

Basically, IMHO perceptions of acceptable used prices have changed due to NIB prices.

NIB is actually the direct reason why prices shot up so much on the old stuff. In 2007, I bought LOTR NIB shipped from teh factory to my door for $3400 (shipped). Back then, buying a STTNG, or SS or whatever for 3k wasn't worth it, because for $400 more , you can buy a brand new game. 2 years later, sterns decides to double their price on the complete version. So now NIB costs you $5600...then $5800...then $6100. Then $6500...now what is it? Like $6800? So paying 3k for a STTNG (when they were 2k all day long) doesn't seem so bad. Sterns and JJP keep jacking up the price, to see how far they can push the envelope before people finally say...you know what. Fuck you. And wait, until they are clearanced out, because everyone refuses to pay. They could ask 10k right now for games, and there are some that would still pre order the shit. That's why prices have shot up so high the past year.

Right.

And......NIB PRICES ARE PART OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

Just in case I wasn't clear in my previous post.

How does any of that change the fact that those NIB prices that you refer to are part of supply and demand?

I think i might see what your saying Rob, but "supply and demand" only has to do with maybe a handful of machines, in general its not. However a low demand will jack up NIB priceing since inorder to keep manufacturing, as demand drops, typically we see manufactures of whatever have you, raise prices inorder to stay in buisness. Profit margins shrink when your makeing so much less of "xxx" product.

So Neo you mentioned in 92-93 there were somewhere over 100 players at a competion. How does that compare to today?....if anyone can answer, im not sure if you still go or talk to people who go to these.

the hobby is changing- if you can call it a hobby now?

more and more folks want enjoyment / satisfaction and they want it now
they dont want to wait till a vender sells an old earning pin off
-pull out the credit card order on line and have a truck drop it off in 10 days
forget telling them it's about 1/2 the price of a new car
or it will break down after a year or two...
the new guys who got money to blow it's NIB or Bust

Fair enough, you clearly are not seeing the same increase in location pinball in your market. Doing a quick check on Pinballrebel.com, there are only two machines on location in the whole state of LA. How is that possible? Maybe the locator isn't up to date? If true, I can certainly understand why you don't see the same activities that we are seeing here in St Louis. STL metro area has around 190 pins in approximately 80 locations, including 4 locations with 8 or more pins, and one location with 80 pins, CP Pinball. Perhaps the increase in location pinball is more of a regional thing, with certain regions of the country seeing more location pinball than others. Portland is probably the best example of the growth of location pinball and another area of the country with hundreds of game on location.

I am seeing a different collector today than say, 10 years ago. Of course, this is a generalization, collectors of ten years ago were guys buying and fixing up games, whereas many of the new collectors I see today want a game working and don't mind paying for it. So, the trend I see you describing reminds me more of several years ago and not of today. Again, could be a regional thing.

I agree with you that pinball is still a retro activity and has not become mainstream. That is probably part of the allure of the game, being retro it is also cool.

Brian Bannon

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Yup, screw that waiting and old. Nib , try k to my home and have fun. And loving it!

Rob, supply and demand as i see it only goes for games that are rare, or were produced in very very small quanities. In general, i do not buy into the supply and demand raising current prices at all. There are thousands of titles out there and the where produced in great numbers.

Lol

So you have no clue about the meaning of supply and demand. Zero.

Not trying to be a dick but your post is completely ignorant.

Nobody is forcing us to grow our collections. Most classic car collectors have a handfull of cars. Most of us have over 10, if not over 20 pins. Why? Because we are greedy bastards.

One good thing that comes with average price increases - more after market parts made.

Puts on video game collector hat...straightens glasses...*AHEM*...

As Pen mentioned, it is absolutely not a fair comparison. A yellow, sealed, PAL Super Mario World is insanely rare. You can find a PAL Super Mario World for chump change...or a US Super Mario World for even less. You may be able to find the yellow box with the manual...that's been sat on a hundred times since the 90's, for a bit more. A sealed version? In very good condition? That's an entirely different beast altogether.

So don't start windexing that loose US Super Mario World cart that you've been using as a table leveler thinking it is gold.

You want something even more insane in the video game world (but hardly the craziest), google Stadium Events...then cue a spit take when you realize it is just a sticker variant of a 1-3 dollar NES game.

Edit: On Topic: When Pinball is so mainstream the machines are saturating the market and are literally everywhere (every theater, bar, grocery store, liquor store, etc.). So unless you have a time machine set to the 80's...

Rob im not here to teach you how things work, your a big boy, you'll figure it out on your own eventually. Ask yourself this question, what makes something rare.....and what makes something worth more than something else? Do you think something is worth more simply because there were less of them made? Also, with all the machines made over the years, do you really beleive we are running out of machines to be had?

If your not trying to be a dick, then by all means dont be. We are just haveing a discussion, we mighT all learn something other than, prices in general are riseing, and your weiner shrinks in the pool...

Pinstyle you made 3 penis references in your comment.

Got something on your mind?

You missed the earlier comment someone made when i used the word "shrinkage". It's back a page or two, im pretty light hearted i thought it was funny reguardless of the posters intent. My lady, my little girl and myself will be enjoying our time together over Christmas, i wish the same for all you gentlemen, theres nothing more in this thread for me to read. It has been interesting with some interesting points brought up.

I see the asking prices, would be interesting to see what they actually sell for. In the past month I have seen the following on local Craigslist but was too late to buy: MM for $8500, Twilight Zone for $1800, Whitewater for $2000, STTNG for $2200. They all sounded legit and said they already sold. Patience and being ready with quick cash.

There may not be a "bubble bursting" soon, but I suspect we are very close to a "correction". The number of people willing and able to add a NIB pin is getting smaller. Not only due to money, but to space as well. The manufacturers in today's market are definitely catering to the collector, not the operator. The operators have shrunk, but the collectors have grown. Collectors are more willing to shell out the money for NIB LE's than operators. That market I would guess will soon shrink, but that demand is growing right now so the manufacturer(s) are raising prices to take advantage of this demand.

wanna buy the golden gate bridge? 1500.00 lol j/k

Let's be honest - we are really talking about a certain segment of games, mostly B/W from the 90's. Older Williams, Bally, Gottlieb, etc games are still at reasonable prices. I see a many of these games for sake between 400-600.

Very true. Even though I grew up more with DMDs and probably prefer when it comes right down to it, I'm starting to really get into System 11s myself recently. Some of them are a bit gouged price-wise, but most are relatively reasonable ($1500 or below depending on title). To me, I'd rather pay a little less and get a machine that p/f wise is everything a DMD is, just without the animated display screen that seems to push the price up another $700-$1500.

I love System 11 games too, but the WPC games also have more capabilities and can have more complex rules, not just a DMD. It's not only about the displays.

What's going to happen to NIB prices when stern releases a pin that includes a tv in it like WOZ? I think they are gonna make an LE for $9999.

They can make 9999 LEs all day long. Will they sell 9999 LEs is the question.

I don't think they have any reason to believe they won't.

Ummmm. Ok, never mind.

soon! ready for the really insane pricing only way is up..

with the way people seem to buy NIB with total disregard for what they are getting for that money, I think there still would be a line for such a thing. The line is getting shorter and shorter with each price increase tho.

pinball is a weird collectors market. Where rarity and age mean nothing. Most collector markets don't work like that. Rare games only appeal to certain collectors. Just like samples and early production stuff. TAF is the most commonly made game there is, yet it holds it's value and always has. Most has to do with Hype and fun factor and manufacturer. There are a lot of B/W snobs out there, hence why B/W tend to be the most expensive. Even their piece of shit games, seem to get more of a second chance, because people are more open minded when dealing with bally williams than anyone else. Where gottlieb, DE and Sega's are judged more harshly even tho some of the games are superior to most B/W titles. Rarity in pinball can mean many things. usually it means the game sucked and never was made. So market for people wanting a shitty title is small. Sometimes rarity is due to production problems or divisions shut down, but good games. Those games tend to bring a premium, and again, only a select market.

Prices are high, but pinball is a great hobby as there is a pinball machine at nearly every price point. New buyers coming in will soon learn that pinball isn't just dmds and there are great pinball machines from every era.

I don't know where prices will go from here but in the twelve years I've been into pinball, they have not gone down on good games.

You just don't get it.

All that stuff that you are talking about ("what makes something rare....and what makes something worth more than something else"), is incorporated in the theory of supply and demand!

UGH!

if you look at the state of things you can see why pin prices are continuing to rise.
more people entering the hobby. why? when ever the subject of pinball comes up,non pinheads always say,"i love pinball" do they still make them? as to the why,with the way the world is today,more and more people are making their home their castle. people are traveling less and building home theaters,game rooms,man caves. pinball is one of the things everyone over 30 remembers fondly from their youth. with the internet,and the pinball arcade to help fan the flames people who would never of thought of buying a pin 5 years ago are now buying a pin. once they get one....................well you know how it goes. i know im painting with broad strokes but the long and short of it is prices will most likly continue to rise for a while. stay frosty fellow pinheads.
remember 5th grade science? what goes up must come down.

As long as stern sells out on their LE's to distribution within 24 hours, they will continue to test price increases. Once the pace slows to selling out over 2 or 3 weeks they will likely stop increasing. However, hobbit is gone be $8000 so stern will likely go there as well.

I do not think the increases will stop for a while, but what will happen is once the prices reach that point (not sure what that is) the point of too high, then many people will not have the money to buy pins, lose the passion, and a lot of pins will hit the market at once. So it will not just stop it will probably drop. Much like any market there are ups and downs. It is definately safe to say the pinball world is definately booming, new blood getting in to pinball, it's awesome! People change hobbies and eventually it will slow, and there are a lot of pins being pumped into the market

Obviously this just my gut, opinion. But as I always say, who cares, a shadow and a funhouse is always worth an AFM. I am not leaving, just trading, or selling to buy another

I would expect that if the Wizard of Oz and Hobbit take off, people will see what can be had for $8000. At that point, will there still be a market for older titles at 15-20k? Technology may solve this pricing issue once and for all. Anyone paying much for an EM machine?

EM gameplay is what it it - not exactly cutting edge but fun to a point. The newer games have ramps, multiball, sometimes multiple playfields and sometimes a toy or two. Can't really improve much from that - it was tried with Pin2k and Pinball Circus to step out of the box and it didn't really up game play.

There is no big change coming - period. No one will make a new machine that will make someone go - Whoa!.

From this point forward they only thing that manufacturers can do is add Bling - better looking this, better constructed that, different display, bigger better toy, lighting or sound. Shinier this or that, limited number, special edition- you get the point.

Pinball prices will not drop based on new machines coming out. The titles that are fun will be in demand and that's that.

Pinball prices will only drop based on an wide economic change, or due to lack of interest from an ageing population.

Tell me what's innovational about the latest pins WOZ or Avengers - nothing, only Bling.

It seems things are actually moving back a step - I am trying to remember the last game with a subway ramp......

One could only hope! I, personally, like having machines from the era that I was a kid playing them and doubt I will ever buy a NIB on newer machine unless it was a really, really good deal. That would be good news for me if technology helped off set the pricing; however, I'm sure there are a lot of people that think the same way as me. I've got a guy coming to buy my Count-Down today who had a chance to buy some DMDs at a good price, but wanted this one because it was of the era he grew up with.

When the first pin2000 came out was its NIB price significantly different from the other standard NIB prices for its time? Right now that innovation doesn't seem to add value to the pin pricing.

Yeah, I think pinball will always be pinball, but it has taken a step back in terms of "playfield magic", and that's something subways were part of. For instance STTNG, shooting a scoop and the ball instantly popping up into a cannon due to the subway system.

What I'd really like to see is a move away from "torso bust" type toys. Even WOZ is guilty of this. Just a sculpture of a character moving up and down or side to side. We need to see some MAGIC and LIFE in the toy design. Imagine for instance, if in Avengers, Hulk started off as a Bruce Banner character. You hit the targets to make him angry...then, lots of green strobing lights and the toy rotates or flips/swaps with a big Hulk toy. Then - what if that Hulk toy "destroyed" playfield elements to completely change them. Opening new shots, or changing ramp paths. Imagine THAT as the main Avenger toy....along with some simple-but-cool toys such as a Hawkeye figure that shoots arrows into an Alien (just an alien head w/ pop-out arrows like a drop target mech) or a hovering Ironman with light up eyes and chest...maybe lasers in his hand (like a laser pointer) that could point out shots for you. Now, imagine THAT vs. the current Hulk toy which is probably just two flipper mechs to make him move left/right and arms/up down...and the ramp that lifts but doesn't do anything for gameplay.

A more convincing living world under glass is what draws people to pinball, IMO. Advancing this art has been lost somewhat.

Totally agree here -- most of these torso busts look horrid too. The cartoonish quality for Family Guy or a game like that works, but on X-Men or Avengers, looks plain ridiculous and cheap.

Oh please. Not this topic/debate again. Ugh!!!

I just really enjoy playing pins and can have just as much fun with my 500 buck games as the high end ones i just think the top rated pins and le models are getting to
Be just a trophy the low end games are not really going up much

The one great thing about pin prices is that they haven't popped yet. With any luck, you can buy a great pin, play it til you get bored, then sell it for slightly less than you paid, just as much, or if you're lucky -even more!

There is a sucker born every minute... Supply/Demand. Fear/Greed. They all move the markets, and as more people are getting into the hobby or want one for their home/office/business, if they have the money, they can afford to pay these higher end prices. Which in return hurts the average collector if he sees the machine he has been saving for start to go up 1.3k more in price overnight? Ebay is always a good thermometer to base what a person would be paying if he/she was to pay for an over-priced machine. Now this isn't always the case, but in most instances I find this to be true. I love MM/MB/TAF but not $16,000 + 'lovin... At the end of the day, the machine has to power on and off just like the $2000 machines in the collection.

Just like everything else in life. Prices will continue to rise.
I read that milk could be $7 in 2013. I had a friend say today that gas in Chicago was "Cheap" at $3.54. A latte is $4.00 + and if you add a pumpkin scone your at $7.00 for a snack.
2 fried shrimp dinner and a pint of custard at Culvers yesterday was $30
Disney tickets went up again this year. $89 for a one day ticket. Then $4.00 for bottled water.
I was in NYC for a conference and treated two friends to 4 total drinks and two appetizers in a lobby of a nice hotel. $126.00 later we went to dinner.

How much was Milk or Gas when MM was shipping NIB and how much was it?

Have your priced new cars lately?
2013 Ford Escape can top out at $38,700. FORD ESCAPE.... yes they are nice but......

Same story, same thread. Pin prices will not go down or change EVER> The only thing that will change unfortunately is the collectors and buyers.
Buy them now, hold onto them.
Someday this hobby may price me out I suspect.