Quoted from marcos:Demonstrably (by the market) wrong?
Do you know how much my machines earn on location, what my split is, and how close they are to being paid off?
I'll give you a hint. I love pinball and all, but I wouldn't be doing this (and keep buying new machines) if it wasn't worth my time and investment, and I'm far from the only one.
-Mark
Yes, demonstrated by the market. Location pinball has basically disappeared over the last couple of decades and in fact the commentary here has made clear that the means by which people are "making it" today is through grossly-inflated resale prices to collectors, not earn-outs on original purchase.
It was not THAT long ago that operators would not sell games to collectors at all for the simple reason that they would reduce coin drop and they had no reason to encourage potential competition. They'd rather literally smash them. Why did that change? Because, again as demonstrated by simple mathematics, the capital cost of the machine (at a reasonable discount factor over their service life), the cost of consumables + maintenance and the expected coin drop essentially never allows an earn-out in a reasonable period of time.
So we've seen a shift, but now ops are dependent on that collector resale channel at awfully close to the original NIB price, or collectors-cum-operators who are actually routing machines *they intend to keep as a collection.*
Good luck to you with that as a long-term strategy -- you're going to need it.