It would be nice if this poll could be answered only by those interested in the pin. I was down for $1000 on a deposit on one of the last of the likely-never-to-be 300. I canceled that because my gut tells me I would have only gotten my $1000 back in about 3 years but I am still very interested in the pin as I like the theme and it looks fun. This got me thinking about trying to buy one from someone that actually has it in hand and I was about to make a thread with the exact same name but then this thread was suggested to me.
There are several factors to consider:
1. While the people that have their game paid $8500, many people (myself included) were happy to pay $10,000. So in figuring this out the starting value is between $8500 and $10,000.
2. This could be a very rare game (50-90 units) but one without complete code and very little to no parts/support. The rarity wins here so the value goes up. I'd say by at least $1000 to a few thousand and that number goes up each time the situation looks dimmer for DP.
3. If the shitstorm gets figured out and all of the 300 games ship and DP survives to make more games and provide support and parts, the rarity decreases (but is still pretty rare) but the code will be completed and support and parts will be there. There is even a lesser possibility that they could make a lot more of these. The low chance of these situations and the plus and minus to value of both makes this a wash to me in my figuring.
So to me the current range is $9500 to $14,000 and it appears the OP generally agrees by the format of the poll. I would personally currently pay about $11,000 to $12,000, depending on the presence and severity of issues. If the 50 out in the wild are confirmed to be all that ever is, I expect the value to shoot up to BBB or higher levels eventually. If the other 40 in the factory are shipped, I'd expect it to be in the high teens eventually. If all 300 get shipped, it will settle around $10,000 or a bit more before the standard inflation climb.
The other interesting question is the value of the pre-order spots originally purchased for $8500. If they are numbered such that they are part of the 40 sitting in the factory, I'd value those at around $8000 currently. If they are numbered higher than that, I'd value that at about $5000 currently. Both of those numbers could rapidly decline along with the situation between DP and ARA. I personally wouldn't risk either. The sale for #125 at $9000 (previously $10,000) here on Pinside is just never going to happen unless he finds a total fool. That game seems like a less than 50% chance to EVER see it's birth and about a 100% chance that the "owner" won't know for years.
This is all just my speculation, of course.