(Topic ID: 182555)

What would you pay for a TBL in hand?


By Cobray

2 years ago



Topic Stats

  • 31 posts
  • 20 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 2 years ago by xTheBlackKnightx
  • No one calls this topic a favorite

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Topic poll

“What would you (roughly) pay for a TBL right now?”

  • $8K or under 81 votes
    54%
  • $9K-ish 37 votes
    25%
  • $10K-ish 17 votes
    11%
  • $11K-ish 4 votes
    3%
  • $12K-ish 4 votes
    3%
  • $13-14K 2 votes
    1%
  • $15-16K 0 votes
  • $17K OR MORE 6 votes
    4%

(151 votes by 0 Pinsiders)

Topic Gallery

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JB Spectre (resized).JPG
Netherlands money 100 Gulden (resized).jpg
62529450 (resized).jpg

#1 2 years ago

Just curious, what would you pay for a Big Lebowski right now if you found one in hand and ready to be delivered to your door, with the current situation?

In just talking to a few other pinball collectors, price seems to be all over the place for what someone would pay. Most I talk to say they wouldn't pay even the $10K. But I love the theme.

Curious to put this out as a poll.... so lets see.

Please try and vote HONEST, keep the hate and/or pumping out of it and go with a true, would put the cash in someone's hand right now for one answer.

#2 2 years ago

interesting results so far!!

#3 2 years ago

I was in on a preorder at 10k. I would pay 10k and not a penny more. I did cancel my preorder now though as a result of this fiasco...such a shame.

#4 2 years ago

You can have mine for 17K. Fully functional. Barely played.

#5 2 years ago

So the 2 guys that voted they would pay $17K are the guys that paid $8500 for their games they already have.

#6 2 years ago

Yeah umm.. I love my game #17 but uh.. 17k guys.. go find a cash machine and we'll talk

#7 2 years ago

I'd probably send the owner of the machine a toe and ask for the game as ransom

#8 2 years ago

$4,500 - $5200

#9 2 years ago

The lowest price in your poll is 8K. You need a 5K, 6K, and 7K in there as well because theres a lot of people who wouldn't pay 8K and I am one of them.

#10 2 years ago
Quoted from Cobray:

Just curious, what would you pay for a Big Lebowski right now if you found one in hand and ready to be delivered to your door, with the current situation?
In just talking to a few other pinball collectors, price seems to be all over the place for what someone would pay. Most I talk to say they wouldn't pay even the $10K. But I love the theme.
Curious to put this out as a poll.... so lets see.
Please try and vote HONEST, keep the hate and/or pumping out of it and go with a true, would put the cash in someone's hand right now for one answer.

this poll is pointless, though. it doesn't matter what the average person says they would pay. it only matters what the maximum amount is that a small number of people would pay.

if you made the same poll with Magic Girl, i'm sure the most popular answer would be whatever the lowest option in the poll is. but that doesn't actually have anything to do with the fact that a small number of people are apparently willing to throw an embarrassing amount of money at it.

#11 2 years ago

Nothing because I'm too poor for that kind of spending

-1
#12 2 years ago

It would be nice if this poll could be answered only by those interested in the pin. I was down for $1000 on a deposit on one of the last of the likely-never-to-be 300. I canceled that because my gut tells me I would have only gotten my $1000 back in about 3 years but I am still very interested in the pin as I like the theme and it looks fun. This got me thinking about trying to buy one from someone that actually has it in hand and I was about to make a thread with the exact same name but then this thread was suggested to me.

There are several factors to consider:
1. While the people that have their game paid $8500, many people (myself included) were happy to pay $10,000. So in figuring this out the starting value is between $8500 and $10,000.
2. This could be a very rare game (50-90 units) but one without complete code and very little to no parts/support. The rarity wins here so the value goes up. I'd say by at least $1000 to a few thousand and that number goes up each time the situation looks dimmer for DP.
3. If the shitstorm gets figured out and all of the 300 games ship and DP survives to make more games and provide support and parts, the rarity decreases (but is still pretty rare) but the code will be completed and support and parts will be there. There is even a lesser possibility that they could make a lot more of these. The low chance of these situations and the plus and minus to value of both makes this a wash to me in my figuring.

So to me the current range is $9500 to $14,000 and it appears the OP generally agrees by the format of the poll. I would personally currently pay about $11,000 to $12,000, depending on the presence and severity of issues. If the 50 out in the wild are confirmed to be all that ever is, I expect the value to shoot up to BBB or higher levels eventually. If the other 40 in the factory are shipped, I'd expect it to be in the high teens eventually. If all 300 get shipped, it will settle around $10,000 or a bit more before the standard inflation climb.

The other interesting question is the value of the pre-order spots originally purchased for $8500. If they are numbered such that they are part of the 40 sitting in the factory, I'd value those at around $8000 currently. If they are numbered higher than that, I'd value that at about $5000 currently. Both of those numbers could rapidly decline along with the situation between DP and ARA. I personally wouldn't risk either. The sale for #125 at $9000 (previously $10,000) here on Pinside is just never going to happen unless he finds a total fool. That game seems like a less than 50% chance to EVER see it's birth and about a 100% chance that the "owner" won't know for years.

This is all just my speculation, of course.

#13 2 years ago
Quoted from Who-Dey:

The lowest price in your poll is 8K. You need a 5K, 6K, and 7K in there as well because theres a lot of people who wouldn't pay 8K and I am one of them.

Ha yeah these will never go for that. Hell you can't even get an MMR or WOZ for $5k or $6k

#14 2 years ago
Quoted from tacshose:

Ha yeah these will never go for that. Hell you can't even get an MMR or WOZ for $5k or $6k

Yeah that's like "offer (unaccepted)" vs. "sold-to-you price"

EDIT: That's also more of what I meant by my above post, sure I could offer to pay $500 for one but would my offer get accepted? No.

#15 2 years ago
Quoted from TRAMD:

It would be nice if this poll could be answered only by those interested in the pin.

- Loved the movie, and was in the "pre-Dutch pinball" list.
- DP came, and the first and only thing that was clear at start on their website was the payment plan. At that time, no information was provided on the game... just how to pay it. Decided DP was not for me.
- Then the game came, and I must admit I liked what I saw. Still unconvinced about the lower PF bowling alley but loved the rest.

So... assuming I had the means (not for now, may be later) I would consider this game.
No chance in hell I would buy a spot from DP now, but buying a game from an owner ready to let his TBL go... why not.

How much would I pay?
Not much more than the initial $8,500. And I would probably try to play Dialed in before deciding.
At $10k I would rather buy a P3.
Hence the $9K-ish vote.
I like TBL, but it's not a dream theme for me.

#16 2 years ago

I almost pulled the trigger and pre-ordered TBL. I'm not a huge fan of the movie but I loved all of the bowling call outs, and the film is a favorite of a lot of my friends, so I figured it was win-win. I ended up holding off so I could see it in person. In the meantime, GB (my dream theme) was announced for less $$ and started getting rave reviews.

I held off committing any money until I tried both games out. I really enjoyed playing TBL, but not at a $9500-$10,000 price point. If it was equivalently priced to GB, then I would have had some difficult decisions. Instead, I bought GB and NGG with what had been my TBL fund.

If all of the current production challenges facing DP were resolved, I would still be interested in the pin, but for me, the game play isn't as satisfying as Hobbit or Dialed In currently are right now. That said, I wasn't a fan of Hobbit until the later code, so I'm sure that DP has potential to greatly improve the play of the machine. I just don't see them having bandwidth to do that anytime in the near future though.

#17 2 years ago
Quoted from DaWezl:

I almost pulled the trigger and pre-ordered TBL. I'm not a huge fan of the movie but I loved all of the bowling call outs, and the film is a favorite of a lot of my friends, so I figured it was win-win. I ended up holding off so I could see it in person. In the meantime, GB (my dream theme) was announced for less $$ and started getting rave reviews.
I held off committing any money until I tried both games out. I really enjoyed playing TBL, but not at a $9500-$10,000 price point. If it was equivalently priced to GB, then I would have had some difficult decisions. Instead, I bought GB and NGG with what had been my TBL fund.
If all of the current production challenges facing DP were resolved, I would still be interested in the pin, but for me, the game play isn't as satisfying as Hobbit or Dialed In currently are right now. That said, I wasn't a fan of Hobbit until the later code, so I'm sure that DP has potential to greatly improve the play of the machine. I just don't see them having bandwidth to do that anytime in the near future though.

Makes me wonder what the owners of the license think of it all, I wonder if they care. :O

#18 2 years ago
Quoted from tacshose:

Ha yeah these will never go for that. Hell you can't even get an MMR or WOZ for $5k or $6k

I like TBL but I just personally wouldn't pay 8500.00 for ANY pinball machine. That's just me though.

#19 2 years ago

I'm sure those that have one in hand are dreaming of super high prices and that they have another BBB. Someone brought up this topic at our last pin meeting, and the general consensus was one guy out of 8 there would be willing to pay near/slightly over the price currently offered ( $10K), maybe $11K, but he loves the movie. Most were happy to spend the money elsewhere and could care less that there's only 50 or so in existence.

If you did buy one for a ridiculous price, say, $15K, it appears you COULD have a hard time getting your money back if/when you decide to sell. Who knows? DP has a shaky future as it stands now, and you could be sitting with a $15K coffee table if something burns up.

Most of the guys I've seen that speculate on pins seem to lose money over the long run... usually you just have to get lucky to make $ (IE, Tron LE, BIBLE, etc.). Good luck with that. I don't want to turn my hobby into an investment.. I want to buy/sell based on whether I like the game and if I'm ready to move it, not because it's worth "X" right now, takes the fun out of the hobby.

#20 2 years ago

62529450 (resized).jpg

#21 2 years ago

Ok, I've reconsidered. I'll let mine go for 16.5

fwiw, I didn't vote in the poll.

#22 2 years ago

About tree fiddy

#23 2 years ago
Quoted from ectobar:

Ok, I've reconsidered. I'll let mine go for 16.5
fwiw, I didn't vote in the poll.

I'm serious about buying one if you are serious about selling.

#24 2 years ago

You can't go low enough in this poll. Where is the zero?

#25 2 years ago
Quoted from ectobar:

Ok, I've reconsidered. I'll let mine go for 16.5
fwiw, I didn't vote in the poll.

I'd never pay $1,650! Unless ARA eventually supports it. Then maybe $3k. Wtf....

#26 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

You can't go low enough in this poll. Where is the zero?

I actually like TBL and it doesn't look cheap like some other games that I won't mention, but 6K tops for me.

#27 2 years ago

I've got two of these. Will that be enough?

Netherlands money 100 Gulden (resized).jpg

#28 2 years ago

This is the first time a movie rogue has been pictured on a bill. The Dutch have their own humor. LOL.

JB Spectre (resized).JPG

#29 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I'd never pay $1,650! Unless ARA eventually supports it. Then maybe $3k. Wtf....

A lot of parts are off the shelf (computer, procs) and Williams mechs.. (the window to bowling alley is a CFTBL part). This is not JPOP where he redesigned stuff like hinges at all.

#30 2 years ago

TBL is one of my favorite movies so I was prepared to be rushing to preorder after playing it at Allentown two years ago, but to me it was underwhelming. The bowling alley looked so cool but after a few plays It seemed like something was missing. At least in my opinion!
Played it again last year and thought I might feel different but once again the same exact feeling.
I know it's different strokes for different folks so if you've played it and love it Cheers to you, but I personally would have been disappointed in a huge way if I had ordered it without playing based on theme alone. On a final note,I hope everyone gets their games but am glad I'm not involved at all in the debacle!

4 months later
#31 2 years ago

This situation just happened here with two different TBL in the PNW.
There may be even a third coming up shortly.

Monetary value is not the primary question or recognizing the issues.
Not a particular deep question of thought either in this case.
People pay $$$ for game prototypes that were unfinished, long, long before the age of ZW MG or this title.

Potential new buyers should really ask themselves, "Do you feel comfortable owning a game with the strong feasibility of zero future customer support or spare parts?"
Some people do, myself included, mostly out of my interest in collecting machines from the past in some cases smaller manufacturers.

Dutch Pinball is in more than just a deep financial pit, but a disparity of severe negative public trust and support that most likely never recover. Especially since the majority of pinball buyers are in the USA, not Europe.
They are in a rowboat being sucked down into the vortex of a whirlpool, and they are talking some helpless pre-order buyers still in the water with them.
Most (but not all) the "deep pockets" individual spenders are in the United States as well in proportion to the overall community.
I am talking about the people that really seek out and spend tens of thousands of dollars on a single game at one time.

A potential buyer might also want to learn PC SMD architecture and repair as well, or find someone that does.
How much repair experience does a person really have?
In pinball, "Anything that can go wrong, sometimes does."

"Buying a particular vintage because everyone tips it and then waiting for it to mature is like gambling. The thrill is in placing the bet. Once the race is run or the match is played, you'll either win or lose. Until that happens, you're caught in this wonderful, agonising sense of expectation."

- Kenneth Cranham

Those that gamble with new manufacturers should know the odds and weigh them appropriately through education and not listen to tippers. Some new owners are bailing out of the hobby for the same reasons described.

Others have already figured out the 'agony' aspect after 3+ years regarding this title.
I am not sure how 'wonderful' it has been, but the general consensus seem to be pretty poor.
They are still waiting for the outcome of this race.

Keep flipping.

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