24
Stern, 2009
AC/DC (LE)
Stern, 2012
AC/DC (Premium)
Stern, 2012
AC/DC (Pro)
Stern, 2012
Addams Family Gold (Special Collectors Edition), The
Bally, 1994
Addams Family, The
Bally, 1992
Aerosmith (LE)
Stern, 2017
Aerosmith (Premium)
Stern, 2017Quoted from Grantman:It's probably going to be a boutique game, not a cornerstone. I'm confident that something else is coming out this year in addition to the 2 cornerstones. Gomez has hinted at some "surprises."
Bond 60th was the boutique game, so that ship has sailed. The surprises will most likely be vault game(s) that are possibly updates to SPIKE 2 LCD (Tron? LOTR?). The next two cornerstones are already known.
Quoted from PinMonk:The investment group bought a controlling interest when Stern almost went under, so that was as close to a private sale as Stern will ever do, already. If they IPO, I think it would be a terrible investment, but it will be interesting to watch when they have to report their financials - something we can only guess at now. Anyone who has dealt with parts or read employee reviews at places like Glassdoor knows they are not a well-managed company.
Oh my. Could you imagine the threads that would start for Pinside MBAs to debate and extrapolate meaning from every line on a pinball company’s financial statements?
Quoted from EaglePin:Oh my. Could you imagine the threads that would start for Pinside MBAs to debate and extrapolate meaning from every line on a pinball company’s financial statements?
It would be super-interesting. For sure. So I am suddenly pro-IPO for that reason alone. 
Quoted from Sorokyl:being a publicly traded company is a lot of overhead... a lot of times doesn't make sense for a small company (yes, this is a small company)
I think the IPO would give them some working capital to grow.
Quoted from John_I:Bond 60th was the boutique game, so that ship has sailed. The surprises will most likely be vault game(s) that are possibly updates to SPIKE 2 LCD (Tron? LOTR?). The next two cornerstones are already known.
Maybe I missed it, but what are the known cornerstones after venom?
Quoted from John_I:You must love disappointment? Eddy's next game is Venom. Granted it's been delayed a couple of times, so he is probably done with it and working on his next game after Venom for a while now. The people in the know here on pinside and some insiders that I know have no knowledge of BTTF in the pipeline. The next three cornerstones are basically always known, so this puts BTTF at least late 2024 or early 2025 IF AT ALL. Sorry. I really wish it would come out next just to pull the Band-Aid and get it over with.
Come on brother. You know just as well as I do the next Stern is always BTTF!
Quoted from crujones4life:Come on brother. You know just as well as I do the next Stern is always BTTF!
Lol! That’s what I was waiting for, took awhile!
Quoted from Prince66cali:I could see a company like Disney eventually buying out Stern
That would be the worst case scenario
Disney would be terrible. They have proven over and over in the game space that they're terrible doing their own software. They do much better licensing stuff out and reaping the cash from games made by people who know what they're doing.
Quoted from John_I:The next two cornerstones are already known.
Ohhh. Care to share what they are?
Venom?
Jaws?
BTTF?
I was listening to a podcast today with Gomez. He was talking about how the next two games are really fun and we will have our minds blown. Now Idk if he was talking about Foo Fighters being one of those or the next two after Foo Fighters. Also he said the reason they went to two cornerstones was because they wanted to get caught up on their backlog. I wonder once they are caught up if they will continue with two games a year or if they will go back to 3 games a year
Gomez talked about Stranger Things again in "Free Play Pinball Podcast Episode 21: Hanging With Our Homie Gomie" (https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-zbn8u-13b0c9f).
Key quote from Gomez: The good news is that you are probably going to see them again from us. I don't know when.
Quoted from PinStalker:I don't think they will sell out outright in one piece...... they'll get the most via an IPO, especially if they can get a sweetheart multiple.
It'll take them longer to dump their shares, but they'll be worth so much more. Sorta like how Vince McMahon was a Billionaire (in stock) but not in cash.
I do wonder what Stern's valuation is as it stands now. Annual sales is what? At bond prices, before dealer cut, their gross is somewhere around 300 million.
Costs: (In Millions)
Lease $2.7
Workforce (450) $30 (Averaging $60,000 plus added $6,000,000 for benefits & exec pay/bonuses - we know the majority don't make $60k)
Input $115 (this is high for sure..... averaging $4000 a machine - it's lower than that)
Dealer $45
Misc $4
Net $100.3
So a modest 10x multiple would be just above 1 Billion, but with the potential of 2-3x production from the new factory, and a history of fat price hikes...... it could get a 15x or 20x multiple fairly easy. Year over year has to be 30% for at least five years (HOT). Also don't know cash on hand.
That would make Gary a billionaire instantly on IPO day.
You can also see that the 1st thing to go after an IPO is clawing back all that juicy dealer cash, and go direct to consumer. Shareholders are going to demand it: it would increase profits by almost 50%. Once Gary is out of the way, the suits will play.
Good info. Where most people go wrong is they don’t generalize that Stern builds roughly 20k games a year at an average price of $10k is $200M gross in sales. Assuming 1/2 cost incurred for all labor, all materials, design, manufacturings, sales and support and Gary and partner may divy up $100M in profits. Five years would generates $500M in cash. Based on that level of profitability and cash flow you’d expect the company to fetch $1B in an all out ipo.
So that is where some of your accounting is a meaningful way to arrive at a similar conclusion.
The last thing we want is for Stern to go public. If they did you can kiss quality goodbye. Profit margin becomes top priority more than it already is.
Quoted from jeffspinballpalace:Good info. Where most people go wrong is they don’t generalize that Stern builds roughly 20k games a year at an average price of $10k is $200M gross in sales. Assuming 1/2 cost incurred for all labor, all materials, design, manufacturings, sales and support and Gary and partner may divy up $100M in profits. Five years would generates $500M in cash. Based on that level of profitability and cash flow you’d expect the company to fetch $1B in an all out ipo.
So that is where some of your accounting is a meaningful way to arrive at a similar conclusion.
I doubt they are making 50% profit. More likely around 15%.
Quoted from Grantman:Gomez talked about Stranger Things again in "Free Play Pinball Podcast Episode 21: Hanging With Our Homie Gomie" (https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-zbn8u-13b0c9f).
Key quote from Gomez: The good news is that you are probably going to see them again from us. I don't know when.
Fingers crossed! I want one really bad but can’t stomach the inflated prices on used ones right now.
Quoted from PinMonk:"Past performance is not indicative of future results."
Especially not recent past. Stern has a bunch of rundown to the dirt moments in their past. This could just be another peak, followed by a "to the dirt" episode. It seems WAY too early for them to be considering an IPO.
Lol Have you not seen stupid rich investors throwing money at stupid shit? Stern is a solid money maker for the past 10 years easy, and clearly have not met demand. I could see an IPO in the fufure.
Quoted from Roostking:Lol Have you not seen stupid rich investors throwing money at stupid shit? Stern is a solid money maker for the past 10 years easy, and clearly have not met demand. I could see an IPO in the fufure.
Fair point.
But yeah, the only reason I'd be okay with a Stern IPO that I think would be bad for pinball is to see those 10Q reports.
Quoted from PinMonk:Fair point.
But yeah, the only reason I'd be okay with a Stern IPO that I think would be bad for pinball is to see those 10Q reports.
Definitely not good, just like bringing a Disney guy on board. They would kill Micky Mouses grandmouse for a buck. They dont care if Stern pinball isnt the same in 5 years. $$$$
Quoted from pinballaddicted:Ohhh. Care to share what they are?
Venom?
Jaws?
BTTF?
Think it's Venom and Jaws, not BTTF.
Quoted from Shapeshifter:Think it's Venom and Jaws, not BTTF.
I agree with you.. I do not think BTTF is coming either.
Bill & Ted would be cool, but I really want Wayne's World....I guess this is like the people that wanted a Godfather pinball machine?
Quoted from pinballaddicted:I agree with you.. I do not think BTTF is coming either.
I think that as Stern runs out of easier to acquire licenses, we'll see Back to the Future eventually, just not in the near future. They'll spend big dollars for the license and it will have a big price tag.
I think that as Stern runs out of easier to acquire licenses, we'll see Back to the Future eventually, just not in the near future. They'll spend big dollars for the license and it will have a big price tag.
I think JJP would release BTTF not Stern. If that happens. I’m sure they would sell out in an instant
Quoted from pinmister:Be cool if someone could do a pinball music swap for Foo using 311
Yup. Make foo a Skinnable band jukebox style pin, generic enough, cartoony, Saturday morning themed.. like justice league, but the various bands are the superheroes, just load new bands, pick your band (or shuffle bands) at startup, the theme will PnP all rock music.
Quoted from pinmister:All of the sudden the Next Stern thread goes silent? Could it be all the new game releases this week?
[quoted image]
[quoted image]
Most interested in GTF myself, followed by Pulp Fiction.
Quoted from crujones4life:Most interested in GTF myself
It's weird even the hype has simmered down for Bond 60th-I think people are bamboozled by all the releases-I know I am.
You get a pinball, and you get a pinball, and you get a pinball-everyone gets new pinball machines!
oprah.gifQuoted from pinmister:It's weird even the hype has simmered down for Bond 60th-I think people are bamboozled by all the releases-I know I am.
You get a pinball, and you get a pinball, and you get a pinball-everyone gets new pinball machines!
[quoted image]
Lol
Quoted from crujones4life:Most interested in GTF myself, followed by Pulp Fiction.
PF looks like a smash hit. LE is pretty much sold out.
Imagine what Bond 60 could have been with good art, Elwin and a sub-$10K price tag!
One of my dream pins, that’s what.
Truly. Well said.
Quoted from kool1:PF looks like a smash hit. LE is pretty much sold out.
Imagine what Bond 60 could have been with good art, Elwin and a sub-$10K price tag!
Quoted from kool1:PF looks like a smash hit. LE is pretty much sold out.
Imagine what Bond 60 could have been with good art, Elwin and a sub-$10K price tag!
Instead look what greed got them.
Goes to show that pinball might be ok without Stern after all.
Quoted from kool1:PF looks like a smash hit. LE is pretty much sold out.
Imagine what Bond 60 could have been with good art, Elwin and a sub-$10K price tag!
Not sure about that game. It looks like a throwback, old school.
Quoted from Rizmo:I think that as Stern runs out of easier to acquire licenses, we'll see Back to the Future eventually, just not in the near future. They'll spend big dollars for the license and it will have a big price tag.
I think JJP would release BTTF not Stern. If that happens. I’m sure they would sell out in an instant
I think Stern have plenty of licences to revisit. Transformers, Iron Man, Metallica, Tron, Ghostbusters and ACDC just to name a few. Stern could remake the originals or create new games. The main issue is Stern still do not have any major competition to keep pricing down. I love CGC and AP however the reality is they do not have the production capability to meet demand. JJP have nearly priced themselves out, another price rise will not go well for them
Quoted from ExSquid:If its JAWS I'm selling some of my body parts for an LE.
Mom needs a new liver, let me know.
Quoted from Rizmo:Does anyone know if Stern will be retiring StarWars? That game has been out since what 2017? Does it really still sell that well for them not to retire it. I feel like after 6 years if you wanted one you would have it by then.
Maybe it's due to licensing reasons. Maybe they have to make it.
But looking at how dealers still have stock from the last (presumably smallish) run I do think demand is really getting quite low for it. Hopefully they don't stick dealers with a bunch more they can't sell.
Quoted from Rizmo:Does anyone know if Stern will be retiring StarWars? That game has been out since what 2017? Does it really still sell that well for them not to retire it. I feel like after 6 years if you wanted one you would have it by then.
Empire Strikes Back would be a killer title for Stern that would continue their Star Wars momentum and make for a killer lineup in a collection.
Elwin
Quoted from ExSquid:If its JAWS I'm selling some of my body parts for an LE.
Better start saving… it is a 4 flipper Elwin Jaws. Coming next year!
Quoted from brickbuilder14:Elwin
Better start saving… it is a 4 flipper Elwin Jaws. Coming next year!
Someone mentioned Jaws, Indy Jones perhaps next year.
Quoted from brickbuilder14:4 flipper Elwin Jaws
Why does this sound sooooo good?
Oh yeah. That's why..
Quoted from RetroRambler:Empire Strikes Back would be a killer title for Stern that would continue their Star Wars momentum and make for a killer lineup in a collection.
Star Wars a bit disappointing but a new Empire Strikes Back would be killer.
Quoted from Pin_Fandango:Instead look what greed got them.
Goes to show that pinball might be ok without Stern after all.
I don't blame Stern. Licensor asked for the pin to be the way it is. It's meant for wealthy Bond collectors.
Quoted from Sorokyl:Maybe it's due to licensing reasons. Maybe they have to make it.
But looking at how dealers still have stock from the last (presumably smallish) run I do think demand is really getting quite low for it. Hopefully they don't stick dealers with a bunch more they can't sell.
It also kills me how the comic art version is the better of the two and they keep re-running the original art.
Quoted from ahdelarge:It also kills me how the comic art version is the better of the two and they keep re-running the original art.
It’s because comic art was retired quite some time ago.
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